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Elliot presented - either a bang or a whimper. 3 This may seem self serving, but its a good time to point out that I used to be a cosmologist myself!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "disclaimer", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:56.776+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7aa8c78e-12e3-47ed-b0b6-c20d217049da", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "there are many simple problems which would require more computing than a 1993, or even a 2033, level supercomputer could do between now and the recollapse or heat death of our the universe2. Computer scientists classify problems of this sort as \"NP hard\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:56.776+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0286d365-5e03-492d-851f-83802b3cfcea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This is a fundamental lesson for us. It is extraordinarily difficult for people to really grasp the power of exponential growth. No experience in our every day life prepares us for it.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:56.776+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "49b34760-9fe2-4e0f-a641-16fdb5893a8a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The key issue behind this point is that computing is on a very fast exponential growth curve. Anything which isn't exponential in growth, or which is exponential but with a slower growth rate, will quickly and inexorably be overwhelmed.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:56.776+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "77d4abc9-a393-4a54-9545-69945eeaa7e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Here is the simplest example of why NP hard problems are hard. Consider trying to enumerate all possible combinations or orderings of N unique objects (characters or whatever). 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Given the increase in storage on PCs, why not record every version of every file? High speed networks and new software will make this quite cheap. Typing and other input mechanisms don't scale with the growth of computing, so why not spool every keystroke and mouse move. The notion of losing work should go away, because it is trivial to record everything that a user does. Caller ID telephones have started to do this with a list of every caller (answered or not) - why not record the content as well?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "45a59e3b-e2f5-4ef7-86b3-2bbffb4fb2e4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Rodney King case showed the power of video tape in recording a situation. How long will it be before every police car, or individual policeman, is equipped with a digital video camera, with non forgeable time and location stamps? Commercial airliners have long had a \"black box\" or flight recorder, but why not extend this for buses, cars - even for individual people? In some cases this would be limited to time, location, speed and in others it would record full video and audio.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "62e0881b-5f9b-4cd2-9f19-3b6f5a9cdf01", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "100 times smaller than voice. Mouse motions and application commands are tiny on top of this, so we certainly have the capability to spool all keystrokes, commands and files that an individual creates over their lifetime at a fraction of the cost of voice.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bdeb642e-c73f-4188-98d1-499866c56351", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The result is that it is easily possible to create general digital recorders which will spool audio, video and other data very cheaply. Cryptographic techniques can be used to time stamp or location stamp these records with digital signatures so that they cannot be forged or tampered with. The entire input and output of an individual's life can be spooled and recorded onto digital media. From there it is a small matter to index it for retrieval based upon time, location and content (via off line speech recognition).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c15f5040-dc87-4c90-bdd8-efb711c29a8f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At this stage you may wonder why do this? Indeed, the notion of never being outside the range of digital recorders operated by Big Brother can sound pretty sinister. It would be very easy to regard this as the ultimate threat to privacy and personal freedom. At another level it may be pretty stupid. Everybody has, at some point or another, told a lie or done something that in retrospect they aren't proud of - why should we record ourselves and make this obvious? Richard Nixon's decision to record conversations in the White House for future historians clearly backfired and he was hoist on his on petard.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cadf99a1-327e-4d7f-9843-8a301d6fda5d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.14, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In fact, while we are at it, a unit like that is cheap enough to be deployed even more widely. Banks and some stores have cameras which can record in the event of a crime, but given the low cost why not have them nearly everywhere? Every city street light represents an investment by the community toward public safety, yet these lights are far more expensive to install and operate than a digital video black box will be in a few years. I could easily imagine such automatic recorders positioned in literally millions of places; connected to storage and analysis facilities by the information highway.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0b8e995-e725-49ce-a0c9-cc0a84801b6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A couple more years of price/performance improvement and we could carry a device like that with us. The digital storage capacity would be enough to record every thing we say and do - for our entire lives. Such a device could carry your entire life on it - the ultimate diary and autobiography.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:14:01.498+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e93ed4ff-2329-4e73-a81b-57acacdc33eb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The social, legal and moral implications are quite interesting because our existing traditions are not prepared to cope with the incredible potential to record and analyze information on this scale. There will be many arguments about how to extend the principles we have today to this new world. In fact, we have already started to see the first skirmishes in this battle in the FBI proposal to make encryption illegal. Their proposals are chilling to a technologist, but their argument is disarmingly simple. They just want to preserve the abilities that they have today. 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This can quickly extend to other circumstances like medical malpractice insurance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:57.747+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "419704a6-45d5-4ec3-88f4-4a9898ea342a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If these trends continue it will be gradually become more and more accepted to have these records. What today seems like the digital jackboot of Big Brother will one day become the norm.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:57.747+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "516ac5b4-59ef-4460-a31a-4da07f83d6f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Many employers will want to use these recorders as a management tool. The public at large may insist that the police record themselves in the course of their work.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:57.747+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "86c75894-4d3c-4a34-9904-54c34e47a2a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.64 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a rule, distribution has much more pervasive effects than authoring. The clearest precedent is the invention of the printing press. Great works of science and literature existed long before the printing press, but had a limited customer base.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:13:57.747+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99796264-304f-4ae9-872f-1df7a2a73a0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One of the biggest reasons will be defensive, using the digital record to protect against litigation. 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Despite this resource inequity I don't believe that the major equipment companies are in any better position to write the software for the new generation of ATM based communications systems than the hordes of IBM mainframe software developers were in writing PC software.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1663f211-9304-4161-bf46-8baaf4bba503", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.235 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In fact, software will be the area in which these new communications systems are hardest hit. Today's systems - whether for a PBX or central office, are notoriously hard to modify and are all proprietary - much like minicomputer or mainframe operating systems. There are few if any third party software developers for them, and direct programming by end users (or their MIS organizations) is impossible. As a result there are few applications and little flexibility.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6097e854-3246-42e4-b3e4-989ba0824e47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.935 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The biggest casualty in this transition will be existing network software architectures, because they too are wholly incapable of serving the new world. There are a couple of fundamental", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "82de829f-402e-4551-99f5-50a94bd796cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.545 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The software architecture for supporting this new flexible approach to communications is likely to move to software companies rather than be written by hardware vendors. The hardware itself will be priced on the quality of the implementation and many different hardware manufacturers will support the same software. In other words, the situation will be a lot like the PC market. This is going to kill most of the current set of communications companies, and i expect that within five to ten years most of the important players will be new entrants similar to Compaq, Dell and Gateway, with few if any of the current leaders left as real contenders.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a0fdeb51-1210-4dcc-aa5e-60ff121cc4e2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.08, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.665 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Novell ???", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a3dff98c-431d-40fb-a176-2436e72eb371", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.685 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "People who make local area network equipment aren't gong to fare much better as a rule than the folks in the communications business. The one saving grace is that most of these people already live (or already suffer) in a very low margin, fast paced market so the effects will not be anywhere near as traumatic.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b5dfe9ea-cdea-4572-955b-08451c07038b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The individuals involved are probably smart and their experience may be useful - but only if they are taken out of the old environment and have their goals and philosophy reset. Many people made the transition from working on big computers to working on small ones, but in my experience no organization ever did.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2839224-9d18-443b-b6de-8f5a90e112f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.805 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I believe that this is ridiculous. The argument is tantamount to saying that PCs wouldn't effect the mainframe market because they'd be used as terminal emulators. While it is true that some PCs were used this way, particularly in the early days, the really dramatic and important aspects of the personal computing revolution were about totally new applications which fueled customer demand and opened vistas that were never part of the mainframe world. The same will be true for fast ATM based LANs - they will allow video and voice telephony, communication of rich multimedia documents in real time and seamless integration with high speed wide area networks in ways which current LANs are wholly incapable of providing. In doing so, they will create a new set of users and applications.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d98fa521-aac3-452a-b8a2-64c3c4852b96", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.325 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The trend for the future will be towards third party applications which write to industry standard APIs - just like on PCs. Many of these apps will promote end user programmability and customization - both at simple levels like call forwarding, out of office and related features to advanced systems for use in vertical markets. The TAPI spec is the beginning of this trend because it allows Windows apps to interface to a PBX but many more opportunities exist. I believe that one of the next \"killer apps\" in the office (and later the home) will be communications control. Today the most that we get to do is set a few speed dial numbers, and record our answering machine or voicemail greeting. Programming your communications - including voice, video and conference versions of both as well as email and FAX, will become important to both organizations and individuals. As this occurs, the old style PBX and central office switches will be unable to compete.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:34.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e286c53e-e011-4034-b69e-184da9375ea4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.735 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "There is a persistent hope on the part of many people involved with LANs that ATM and fiber networks will basically be a transparent change to their current business. 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The role of Hollwood in the new business is much more uncertain than the distribution question. It is far from clear what role the major studios will play, if any, since in any direct sense they don't really make the movies - they finance them and arrange distribution deals and perhaps rent them some production facilities. The actual creative work is done by a collection of individuals - actors, directors and employees at small companies like Industrial Light and Magic, which come together for an individual project. 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Computer games will increase in production values until you won't be able to tell the difference between the game and a movie - they will be equally realistic. High bandwidth communications over the highway will enable multiple people to come together and share the same experience - real or simulated. Who will create the new media formats and entertainment for the information highway? Many of the creative people will come from the community that currently makes movies, but I suspect that the majority of current Hollywood talent will not make the transition.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "56e56046-2542-41ec-a7a9-d12178b83a0f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Blockbuster and other video rental stores are currently the largest source of revenue in absolute terms. Their business is almost certain to go away as the information highway provides large libraries of films on line. However unfortunate this is for video store owners, it is a boon to Hollywood because the current video rental business is based on selling the tapes to the stores rather than directly participating in the rental income. Video on demand on the highway will be done as a share of revenue which is far more lucritive for the film's owners. The death of the video store will greatly increase the bottom line to Hollywood.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "69481eba-f1f4-4f69-8c45-40991d8e66be", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.117 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The motion picture industry has developed a very predictable reaction to technology. In the past 50 years there have been a number of technological innovations - talkies, color films, television, VCRs and cable TV. In each case the initial reaction was the same - the new breakthrough was the work of the devil, an evil force which would destroy the industry. These fears have never proved out, and in fact just the opposite has happened. Each change caused a large expansion of the market for feature films and greatly increased revenues.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "82b88b9a-a043-48f3-b2f3-18f0c5b65e9a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.893 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The most dramatic shift for Hollywood will be the change in production costs and equipment. Over the course of the last 10 years publishing has moved from having an incredibly expensive analog production process - up to thousands of dollars per page - to one where a PC and software are sufficient for both professionals and amateurs alike. The same thing will happen to video editing, post production and special effects, as the growth in computing capabilities continues. The amazing dinosaurs in Jurassic Park will cost 1000 times less in ten years, making this sort of effect available to nearly anyone. A few years after that and effects of this capability will be in children's toys - the ultimate extrapolation of the Etch-a-Sketch.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "876caa18-c243-4017-bcc9-059c9cdf1efb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.165, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.299 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Movie theater attendance is continuing to drop, to the point that theater revenue is no longer the largest source of revenue for most films. The good thing about theaters for Hollywood is that the price is relatively high, and the margin is good - typically about 50%. Despite this, the current trend is likely to continue and theaters will become a smaller and smaller phenomenon, although they are unlikely to become completely extinct. In fact stage plays are a good model - they are still around despite movies, television and other art forms. Plays no longer hold the same relative position as a medium of mass entertainment, and one day the same thing will be true of movie theaters. They will be expensive places where people purists, afinicados and those with nostalgia go for a special night out.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bffd3597-f6c7-46b3-8aaf-9721c225791a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.228 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This rosy picture may well happen once again. Movies are likely to be popular for at least the next 20 years, and probably far longer. The information highway is a great way to deliver films - in fact a far better one than the current schemes. Hollywood's fortunes will continue to improve as the highway takes a larger share of film distribution.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f5a289ac-3278-42d9-ad4d-0866e6c7e056", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.018, "w": 0.105, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Hollywood", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:55:07.037+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7749e14e-f8b4-41c6-a83e-37a781db7a5d", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 28, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 22, "name": "Solution", "beatId": "2611d0d7-74bd-4bc6-b7ed-9419d43a138a", "matchId": "4f93ab46-3763-4136-a48b-5fd5f4031bd4", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The later slides offer key messages and potential solutions, providing relief.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 25, "from": 22, "loop": { "name": "40_mece_breakdown", "slug": "40-mece-breakdown", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-763c-765e-8b68-6ee3ae1ef184", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage", "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "890ba313-c63f-41a0-be7d-787ac89c9752", "evidence": "The slides in this range offer a breakdown of the problem, suggesting a MECE breakdown loop.", "position": 1, "objective": "How can we break down the problem into manageable parts?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:20:52.390627+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 26, "type": "setup", "title": "This is a text-heavy page from a document titled 'Road Kill on the Information Highway'.", "function": "summarize", "rawType": "key_messages", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "key_messages", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Key messages", "slug": "key_messages", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0712-703f-89f5-bda6688faf3f", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 87, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 4547, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This is a text-heavy page from a document titled 'Road Kill on the Information Highway'.", "elementsJson": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "seconds": 7.969, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a/26", "deck": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a#slide-26", "deckJson": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.518 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I believe that the same thing will happen again with PCs playing the role of mainframes and minis, and the computing platforms of the information highway taking over the role of the challenger.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "060a9414-508d-4f4e-a5dd-2bacf6e06e94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.828 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PCs will remain paramount within their domain for many years (we'll still have a computer on every desk) but IHCs will start to penetrate a larger and larger customer base on the strength of its new and unique applications. The power of having the worlds information - and people - on line at any time is too compelling to resist. For a long time people will still have a traditional PC to handle traditional PC tasks - in precisely the same way that they have kept their mainframes and minis for the last 17 years. One day however people will realize that their little IHCs are more powerful and cheaper than PCs - just as we have finally done with mainframes. There will be a challenge for the IHC software folks to write the new systems and applications software necessary to obviate PCs, just as we had to work pretty hard to come up with NT, but this battle", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "30ca3c6c-2bf3-4671-9716-7ea9087d62e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.658 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Another way to say this is that the rich environment of software for PCs is largely irrelevant for IHCs. Windows, NT, System 7 and Cairo do not solve the really important technical problems required for IHC applications, and it is equally likely that the early generations of IHC software won't be great platforms for PC style apps. This isn't surprising because they are driven by an orthogonal set of requirements.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4be85957-ba37-4cd6-8d57-ff4bddea2092", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.558 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The technical needs of computers on the information highway, or IHCs are quite different than for PCs. The killer applications for IHCs in the early years will include video on demand, games, video telephony and other distributed computing tasks on the highway. It is hard to classify this as either higher tech or lower tech than the software for PCs, because the two are quite different. Most IHCs will certainly need to be cheaper than PCs by an order of magnitude and this will inevitably cause them to be less capable in many ways, but some of their requirements are far more advanced.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4e91834d-dc24-4543-973c-54f8fc8e8188", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.188 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a case in point, consider that the fundamental category needs for mainframes and minicomputers also still exists and will continue to do so for a very long time. Despite this, the companies involved are dying and the entire genre is likely to disappear. The reason is that a new breed of machine - the PC - came along which out flanked them. In the early years PCs were not particularly good at what minis and mainframes did, but they were terrific at a whole new set of problems that the traditional computing infrastructure had basically ignored.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "79e62fa9-b14e-4473-9948-a3547607fc30", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.118 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I've saved the best for last. Our own industry is also doomed, and will be one of the more significant carcasses by the side of the information highway. The basic tasks that PCs are used for today will continue for a long as it makes sense to predict, so it isn't a question of the category disappearing. The question is one of who will continue to satisfy these needs and how?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b0194ef7-a66f-4080-a74b-e9cdf2894a5e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.728 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The IHC world will almost certainly grow faster than PCs, both in business terms and in price/performance. The PC industry is already reaching saturation from a business perspective. Technically speaking, the industry is mired in hardware standards (Intel and Motorola CISC processors) with growth rates that are flattening out relative to the state of the art - just as the 360/3090 and VAX architectures did. The Macintosh and Windows computing environments may be able to survive the painful transition to new RISC architectures, but they will lose time and momentum in doing so.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b841c413-6b75-4a3d-b5b1-da8bb8d84e52", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.298 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Personal productivity applications drove PCs onto millions of desks and created a very vital industry which grew faster - both in business terms and price/performance - than the mainframe and minicomputer markets. The power conferred by this growth made PCs the tail which wagged the dog; free to ignore the standards which existed for mainframes and minis and move off on their own. Over time the exponential growth in computing has finally (after 17 years) given the PC industry the technical ability to beat minis and mainframes in their own domain. Although the early software platforms for PCs had to be extended to fully realize this potential (Dos to Windows to NT to Cairo), it turned out to be far easier to do this than to make mainframe or minicomputer systems address the new needs and applications. Even within the heart of minicomputer and mainframe's domain - giant transaction processing applications etc., the old standards will not be used.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e5303ab1-b4b5-4b10-8d46-9b390fb972b0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.016, "w": 0.185, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Personal Computers", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "49fcae09-1c34-4bfc-84e9-f7bc663764ac", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "ae5e03d0-b2ce-494c-93f4-ad971a1aeccf", "evidence": "The text describes the classic pattern of a new, cheaper, less capable technology (IHC) eventually displacing an established, more powerful one (PC) by addressing new needs.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:46:35.049+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 26, "frameworkName": "disruptive-innovation" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 28, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 22, "name": "Solution", "beatId": "2611d0d7-74bd-4bc6-b7ed-9419d43a138a", "matchId": "4f93ab46-3763-4136-a48b-5fd5f4031bd4", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The later slides offer key messages and potential solutions, providing relief.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. 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The PC world won't have any more say about how this is done than the companies who created MVS or VMS did about our world. Of course, some of the VMS people were involved, but as discussed above it is very hard for organizations to make the transition.\nThis may sound like a rather dire prediction, but I think that for the most part it is inevitable. The challenge for Microsoft is to be sufficiently involved with the software for the IHC world that we can be a strong player in that market. If we do this then we will be able to exploit a certain degree of synergy between IHCs and PCs - there are some natural areas where there is benefit in having the two in sync. The point made above is that those benefits are not sufficiently strong that they alone will give us a position in the new world. 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