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Using AngelList’s large database of seed-round investments, we show that always making those follow-on investments has a higher mean...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "description", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 20:02:44.642+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "96727254-2cff-4385-b809-2e96f7cd2dea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Seed-stage investments are typically made using a convertible instrument (either a convertible note or, increasingly, a SAFE). Startups prefer to raise these instruments as their first source of capital because they are relatively straightforward...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 20:02:44.642+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ec636d4b-5278-4334-a22d-6f695e15b9d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "subtitle", "text": "Abraham Othman Ph.D. — Head of Data Science, AngelList\nSeptember 1, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "82d821ee-2793-42e7-8f16-c6131385a3ce", "version": 1, "description": "Header-zone supporting text near the title (= ex body.description with bbox)." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "subtitle", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 20:02:44.642+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "208c806b-3256-4af3-bd07-002b66125136", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.112 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Should Seed Investors Follow On?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 20:02:44.642+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "773e0a0a-2462-4068-8460-48ffa4e33546", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Introduction", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 20:02:44.642+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9ffa8be3-dd96-45ea-a55e-34eb11ffde76", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. 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Because convertible instruments are almost always priced at a discount...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "disclaimer", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:16.959+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "995ab66f-43de-4331-b69d-0f7bc3c36676", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Never follow on: The canonical “spray and pray” strategy.\nAlways follow on: Make follow-on investments whenever a seed-stage investment converts for a positive return.\nDouble down on winners: Follow on only when the value of your initial investment at least doubles.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:16.959+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e58c0dd9-cc89-4823-b598-766aa9444782", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Here are the “stories” of three different generative world-models. 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The diagonal line divides the plot into two triangles, points in the triangle at upper left represent simulations where Never outperforms Always, while points in the triangle at the lower right represent simulations where Always outperforms Never.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "description", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "470d2160-3ee1-4690-b6d6-5d2c3b81c622", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Double outperforms Always head-to-head and by median. The magnitude of the divergence between Never and Double against Always in the median simulation is smaller at ten investments than at three.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "description", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a380009f-a26a-4e50-8292-7d576ac80688", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.29, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Results shown in this table are gross values and do not reflect the impact of fees or carry that would reduce returns achievable by an investor.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "description", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "edf475be-3a38-4520-ac98-a4c65f5833a2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.29, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Table 2. Fraction of simulations where each follow-on investment strategy outperforms the others. Never 54% 46% Always Never 43% 41% Double Double 54% 46% Always", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "43a46298-e337-4784-b855-a35226e0f6d8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.29, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Table 1. Performance of each of the three follow-on investment strategies when making ten investments per year over 10,000 simulations. 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Scatter plot comparing the gross TVPI of the Always (x axis) and Never (y axis) follow-on strategies. 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Observe that in that cluster, Always has returns that have higher variance, while Never has more well-behaved performance. This is consistent with the power law of early-stage investment returns rewarding making more, putatively independent, investments.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:28.732+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41aed98d-6535-440d-b1c0-6cc0f9f3b113", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Finally, the smallest cluster, in the green circle, are those simulations where Always has typical performance but Never does well. These are the simulations where following on to a prior investment precludes Always from making the original investment into the best-performing company on the platform. This green circle is a graphical depiction of one of our key findings: that there exists an opportunity cost of doing follow-on investments. This is closely related to the power law of early-stage investment returns, which as a general rule suggests that having more winning early-stage investments is always better from the perspective of risk-adjusted returns.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:28.732+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4cd3ebf3-03f6-4a57-a2a7-e113457d4098", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The smaller cluster in the red circle at right are simulations where Never performs well but Always performs even better. This cluster is entirely due to Always putting additional capital into the Series A of the best-performing company on the AngelList platform, which company raised a convertible instrument that converted at a modest, roughly 10% return to a Series A before going on to a better than 100x unrealized return after its first priced equity round.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:28.732+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "81f3aade-4c49-4f4f-adbb-18ed7e540b8e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For investors who are not capital constrained and who plan to make a number of investments large enough that following on does not significantly affect the number of early stage investments they make, there are", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:28.732+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "982d8533-f1ac-44cd-bd06-bab4600a7978", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our experimental results are ambiguous as to whether Double's outperformance of Always in the head-to-head and median measures is because it makes more investments (like Never) or because its selection of follow-on investments is superior to Always. To study this issue we consider those follow-on investments with valuation changes in the table below:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:28.732+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a96ddc14-e929-4b50-962b-951a41802533", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Compared to the universe of all follow-on investments, the Series A investments that followed the doubling of a convertible have a higher median, lower mean, and identical fraction of \"Went to Zero\" investments. 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The simulated portfolio returns shown and discussed above do not represent the actual composition and performance of any current or future AngelList fund. These simulated portfolio returns have inherent limitations. They do not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors had or might have had if actual investments had been made. Returns achievable by actual funds may also differ from simulated portfolios due to differences in the timing and prices of investments and the identity and weightings of securities holdings. Data concerning returns from simulated portfolios also do not consider tax impacts, fee waivers, and other factors that would cause actual returns to investors to differ materially from the simulated portfolio returns. While this post presents the simulated performance of several re-investment strategies based on the specified historic AngelList deals, these distributions and probabilities may not be the same during any other period. Some institutional and professional investors on the AngelList platform also have superior access to deals and information from AngelList and leads. The simulated portfolio analysis in this article may include returns from investments in funds that were only available to these institutional and professional investors, which may cause the simulated returns to differ materially from returns achievable by other investors on the AngelList platform. Moreover, market returns based on AngelList data may not be representative of the broader market of early-stage technology startups generally due to a number of factors, including the potential for selection bias in investment opportunities available to AngelList funds and the size and frequency of such investments accessible to a given investor.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "disclaimer", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "782c16e8-6f1d-456f-90a3-80978231a088", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.185, "w": 0.884, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.158 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This document and the information contained herein is provided for informational and discussion purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation for any investment or other advice of any kind and shall not constitute or imply any offer to purchase, sell or hold any security or to enter into or engage in any type of transaction. Any such offers will only be made pursuant to formal offering materials containing full details regarding applicable risks, minimum investments, fees, and expenses. Any investment in venture funds, including AngelList funds, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for sophisticated and qualified accredited investors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "disclaimer", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "96fe8b22-cfb9-465d-9170-12c94c0a4314", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.135, "x": 0.058, "y": 0.112 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Disclosures", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:25:18.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "24eaaa80-7751-49c2-9511-be20bb489e56", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [ { "from": 1, "to": 2, "label": "Problem", "description": "The deck introduces the problem of seed investors deciding on follow-on investments." }, { "from": 3, "to": 5, "label": "Agitate", "description": "The deck presents methodology and data to agitate the problem, making it clearer and more pressing." }, { "from": 6, "to": 9, "label": "Solution", "description": "The deck provides key takeaways and a comparison table to offer a solution to the problem." } ], "loops": [ { "from": 3, "to": 5, "label": "Cost Of Inaction", "description": "to highlight the costs of not following on" }, { "from": 6, "to": 8, "label": "Mece Breakdown", "description": "to break down the decision into manageable parts" } ] }