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In addition exemptions from the ECF are included that are intended to encourage migration towards cleaner trucks in advance of the ban schedule\nThe second option (Option II, or the “Enhanced Model with Market Incentives”) also allows for both employee and IOO drivers, tightens LMC concession criteria to further recognize the impact of marginal LMCs on the community and on sustainability, and limits CTP public financing to LMCs. In addition, the fees and exemptions to fine tuned to further favor the ‘greenest’ trucks and private investment. Taken together this interdependent set of elements may have the market effect of encouraging market consolidation and enable a long term sustainable clean truck program.\nFinally the third option (Option III, or the “Enhanced Model with Market Incentives and an Employee Commitment”) overlays onto Option II some form of employee commitment that will ensure the phasing in of employees into the drayage market over time. 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Our approach addresses:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:07.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1b3b2373-0cc8-447d-a6b6-8fa19e2aa663", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.022, "w": 0.375, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.518 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We examined three broad options for the CTP", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:07.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d51cfb97-4dad-43d0-ad2f-01761c2df9ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.042, "w": 0.397, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.105 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive summary (II)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:07.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8cab4e44-ea5d-4473-8189-5579b94a0c71", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.033, "w": 0.405, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.147 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Approach and options evaluated", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb09-739d-900c-815b0d9ac526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "subtitle", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:07.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b1b018d4-6652-4ab3-bbfd-314edf3aabcc", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "759d6d4b-fe11-4ff1-84dc-8c53b3577b15", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Executive summary (II)' and contains a summary of the analysis and options evaluated.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 02:13:31.581353+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "01_logic_chain", "slug": "01-logic-chain", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Skeptical audiences, controversial recommendations, rigorous analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6638-7457-8650-9b0b42e59fb3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Premise 1 (Accepted truth) -> Premise 2 (Observed fact) -> Therefore... 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"loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "01_logic_chain", "slug": "01-logic-chain", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Skeptical audiences, controversial recommendations, rigorous analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6638-7457-8650-9b0b42e59fb3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Premise 1 (Accepted truth) -> Premise 2 (Observed fact) -> Therefore... 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This will allow an orderly progression from the market today and be flexible to absorb swings in demand\nOption II encourages a migration to an employee based trucking market as asset owning LMCs seek out drivers for their trucks. We predict over time that this should result in a migration of trucker incomes towards prevailing comparable levels\nFinally, by encouraging consolidation in larger more well capitalized LMCs with employees Option II should also create incentives for further continual improvement in the efficiency of the port drayage market.\nThe key risks in Option II are\n1) That the above benefits may not be realized if, for example, private players continue to fund and support marginal IOOs, and/or create a 'marginal contractor' labor market for truckers who sub-lease LMC controlled trucks\n2) That the complex mix of employee and IOO based LMCs complicates the enforcement of safety and security requirements", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.61+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9815ad1e-d897-4af9-89a1-b03c9f45f5d5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.112, "w": 0.841, "x": 0.091, "y": 0.311 }, "kind": "list", "text": "As the concession requirements for LMCs are minimal and IOOs are enabled to get new trucks but with limited requirements for them to maintain and replace these trucks the drayage market would continue to be very fragmented, with marginal economics driving the returns for both LMCs and truckers.\nThe local community will continue to bear the burden of a fragmented IOO pool (e.g. neighborhood parking) while enforcement of safety/security across many IOOs/LMCs continues to be challenging.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.61+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df2f236d-0ff1-4a94-9b37-c968914449fe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.056, "w": 0.864, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.255 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our assessment is that Option I will satisfy the immediate near term environmental goals triggered by the truck ban but will fail to create a sustainable long term drayage market that will enable continued progress in improving environmental outcomes and enabling green growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.61+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "60e88822-1d34-4deb-bf82-554c2a37d442", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.056, "w": 0.864, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.485 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Option II, the Enhanced Model with Market Incentives, addresses these shortcomings by deploying a focused array of measures that should create the market conditions to encourage evolution of the SPB drayage market towards an asset based (i.e. LMC truck owning) market. Key elements in Option II and their effects are", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.61+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d1c3bd36-5c1c-4f92-b59b-1d5d21a8e3ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.028, "w": 0.735, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.151 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Option I (basic model) & Option II (enhanced model with market incentives)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.61+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "886da6b1-5ab8-42f3-ab95-d51dc8ca9eed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.042, "w": 0.355, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.103 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive summary (III)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.61+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8a770438-7756-49f4-b501-72db791f1f72", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "3b2291b2-5457-42c5-a9fd-8dc77b8b9b65", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Executive summary (III)' and contains a summary of the analysis and options evaluated.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 02:13:31.742619+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "01_logic_chain", "slug": "01-logic-chain", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Skeptical audiences, controversial recommendations, rigorous analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6638-7457-8650-9b0b42e59fb3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Premise 1 (Accepted truth) -> Premise 2 (Observed fact) -> Therefore... 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This threat is material; e.g. members of the Coalition for Responsible Trucking alone control discretionary volume representing 14% of SPB cargo that could be readily diverted to alternative ports.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.547+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "922ddbee-713a-411e-ad3d-e567bcbd8f75", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.083, "w": 0.885, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.411 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A requirement should guarantee the movement of the drayage market in the longer term towards an asset and employee based model. This will maximize the likelihood of creating a market in which the reciprocal obligations between the Port (granting a commission) and LMCs (providing drayage services) create a sustainable reliable supply of truckers attracted to stable and relatively well paying jobs in an operationally efficient and orderly drayage market. We considered four broad options for an employee commitment:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.547+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3389585f-5c1c-45a2-baf2-5173fea77da3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.885, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.256 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Option III, the Enhanced Model with a Market Incentives and an Employee Commitment, contains all of the elements found in Option II but in addition specifically favors an employee based trucking model by requiring all LMCs providing drayage services to commit to use employee drivers", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.547+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "67d2dc2d-ec9d-45f8-a0d5-8ec74689338f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.885, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.698 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "With a 100% employee commitment Option III will drive up wage rates more quickly than Option II and will also eliminate some proportion of IOOs who do not wish to become employees. 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We expect diversion of activity up to the capacity of Long Beach to absorb it, further exacerbating the operational and environmental stresses on the Port of Long Beach.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.826+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95d4fcb4-15cb-488a-997f-3e8036fb81ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.056, "w": 0.841, "x": 0.091, "y": 0.314 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Both Options II and III are superior to 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"parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.042, "w": 0.841, "x": 0.091, "y": 0.426 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Option III directly addresses this risk and offers the best guarantee of long term sustainability, but at the cost of introducing a new element of operational uncertainty.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.826+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7c82a58-f378-472e-9709-a8987efbfc1e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.042, "w": 0.864, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.213 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We compared all three options against the objectives of both short term (1-3 years) and long term (3-5 year+) environmental improvement, operational stability, reliability of supply of trucks and drivers, and safety/security", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.826+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1e51cb74-333f-4456-bb9b-526a458dfc5f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.056, "w": 0.864, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.545 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One potential outcome could be that the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles adopt different programs. The Port of Long Beach has adopted a program like Option I. Were the Port of Los Angeles to adopt either of Options II or III there is risk that volume of containers and supply of truckers could rapidly divert between the two markets.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:03.826+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "23f2df13-7320-45e7-9451-646b7eecda67", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.864, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.789 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In conclusion we recommend that decision makers seek a unified approach to the San Pedro Bay Clean Truck Program. 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Estimate of cumulative added costs of option III in years 1-5 is $4.6B. 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Cumulative sum of all added drayage costs (ECF, labor rates, employee costs) assuming no change in mix beyond predicted diversion. Compares to $0.6B under Option I.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:30:17.214+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b55f550-7704-4a47-9449-a5595cdea979", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.864, "x": 0.068, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1.Benefits phased in in proportion to changes in numbers of employees, income levels, and proportion of clean to dirty trucks. 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Option I will not create a sustainable long term drayage market that will deliver reliable supply, ensure continued progress in improving environmental outcomes, and enable green growth (e.g. through creating incentives for operational efficiency)\n2. Both Options II and III have the potential to create a drayage market that meets the CAAP and CTP objectives (environmental, operational and safety/security) not only in the near term (the terms of the ban) but also in the long term (creates a sustainable drayage market)\n3. Option II carries the risk that long term sustainability is undermined if market participants or third parties find ways to hold employee incomes below prevailing levels needed to ensure a reliable supply of truckers (e.g. by financing existing IOOs)\n4. Option III directly addresses this risk and offers the best guarantee of long term sustainability, but at the cost of introducing a new element of operational uncertainty\n5. 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