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null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:10.702+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "78e81dd1-4c9f-4ed5-a091-fb2f131ed8d5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We estimate that BHP's franking credit balance could reach over US$17bn by 2022. Due to the lack of earnings independently generated by Plc, any meaningful dividend distribution significantly beyond the current 50% payout ratio under the current DLC structure may require BHP to utilize the Dividend Share Mechanism which could result in further wastage of franking credits.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:10.702+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "37ca65e0-3401-4bbf-b504-7fc838bb1c54", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "list", "text": "There has been a build-up of franking credits at Ltd due to the misalignment of profits vs. shareholder base in the DLC structure. 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In our view, comparisons of the volatility characteristics of BHP's returns as compared to comparable portfolios do not provide any evidence that BHP's petroleum assets offer diversification protection for BHP against volatility. 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We see US Onshore as poorly understood. We believe average broker valuations are well below intrinsic value.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:05.685+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "de99fc30-b74d-4e8c-bdb0-3ddd09c14739", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The average of brokers' valuations of BHP's Gulf of Mexico assets is c.US$5.8bn. The aggregate of the respective averages of brokers' valuations of US Onshore and BHP's Gulf of Mexico assets is therefore c.US$12.3bn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:05.685+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3d436820-1088-416e-8586-f529e1fb9459", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Broker research. 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WTI and Henry Hub prices on the date of the Petrohawk acquisition announcement\n2. Maximum acceptable level of discount in a tender process off-market share buyback is 14% for an Australian tax resident company\n3. As disclosed in the BHP Billiton Investor Briefing, Onshore US, dated October 5, 2016", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We have emboldened, by way of emphasis, certain parts of the original text of the analysts' views which appear in this presentation", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:06.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "08c971eb-99a2-476c-be18-6a89d4e43ee4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "On strategy, we think there is no real benefit from portfolio diversification per se and unless we see a dramatic outperformance of oil versus iron ore (clearly not the case at present) we see no reason for BHP to trade ahead of Rio Tinto.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:06.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "24d5ce9a-872b-4419-9f87-9c56a1cf1c44", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Having run through all these scenarios and modelling, there are plenty of frustrations from a BHP analyst perspective. It may well be that BHP's Petroleum business has valuation leverage that is unique (courtesy of Onshore) but the reality is investors will, rightly, buy a pure-play oil stock - and a leveraged one at that - if they are bullish on oil. Has the time come to take the BHP devolution further than just S32? In the last 6 months S32 has outperformed its parent by >30%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:06.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "273cd95b-2eed-4ea8-a2dc-adf59fc3181a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We have always struggled with US onshore asset as in our view they do not fit in BHP's strategy of building large scale low cost tier 1 assets and are arguably worth more to someone else.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:06.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "35ec4963-8989-4468-8372-d3aab07a581c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "BHP's US Onshore assets promised so much but have delivered so little", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:06.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3c398ada-de66-4613-9ed3-ca4a05683b17", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "While it is clear that the number of barrels being extracted is declining, we contend the decline is mainly driven by 'lower quality' barrels being removed from the portfolio. For instance removing US onshore shale production that carries zero or negative margins will have negligible impact on the profitability of the division. Ongoing production from the cash cow assets of NSW, Atlantis, Shenzi and Bass Strait is likely to see an improvement in per barrel margins", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 14:22:06.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "51d9eabd-dde0-434a-966b-90a9bc9c099c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Since 2005, BHP has spent $7.9b on petroleum exploration, of which $4.9b has been expensed. 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