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Follow-up to a prior 23 July 2024 letter — Bluebell had been in ongoing dialogue since May 2024. Core rhetorical move: a numbered catalogue of seven U-turns on BP's 2020 renewables strategy, capped by the Q2 2024 implicit guidance cut. Uses direct quotes from BP press releases (Dotzenrath hire, Equinor JV) and BP's own Code of Ethics to expose broken promises, and embeds an HSBC 8-Aug-2024 research extract as third-party validation of the ~12% implicit EBITDA downgrade. Raises legal angle around the Tribunal-ruled 'unlawful' Burnhope solar farm and Lightsource's apparent attempt to circumvent the 50MW planning threshold via lobbying. Peer TSR and EPS-change bar charts are the visual centerpiece, with pale-blue BP bar isolated against dark-blue peers — classic peer-shaming viz. No stake size or target price disclosed.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Originally $46-49bn; HSBC estimates implicitly revised down ~12% to c.$40-43bn", "metric": "2025E EBITDA guidance" }, { "detail": "$4bn, ~8% below midpoint guidance", "metric": "Q2 2024 implied EBITDA miss" }, { "detail": "BP -24% vs Chevron +19%, Shell +24%, Total +43%, Exxon +51%", "metric": "2024E EPS change since Looney CEO" }, { "detail": "BP -24% vs Chevron -22%, Shell -10%, Total -10%, Exxon +5%", "metric": "2024E EPS change since Auchincloss CEO" }, { "detail": "BP 10% vs Shell 55%, Chevron 60%, Total 80%, Exxon 128%", "metric": "EUR TSR since Looney appointment (05/02/2020)" }, { "detail": "BP -16% vs Chevron -13%, Exxon -3%, Total +5%, Shell +7%", "metric": "EUR TSR since Auchincloss CEO (12/09/2023)" }, { "detail": "BP 0%, Shell -1%, Total -2%, Chevron -1%, Exxon +2%", "metric": "2025E EBITDA consensus move Q1 to Q2 2024" }, { "detail": "$1.1bn impairment on US offshore wind after $1.1bn paid in 2020", "metric": "Equinor JV impairment" }, { "detail": "$30bn 2023-2030 renewables plan, contributing only $2-3bn of $53-58bn 2030 EBITDA", "metric": "Renewables capex plan" }, { "detail": "Raised from 1.5 mmboed to 2.0 mmboed, partially reversing 2020 strategy", "metric": "2030 oil & gas production target" } ], "closingAsk": "The Board should remove the Chairman and the Lead Independent Director and present an updated strategic plan at the Q3 results stage.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 08:24:23+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 161.66505, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "BP's €TSR since CEO Looney's appointment is only 10% versus 55-128% for Shell, Chevron, Total and Exxon; closing that peer gap is the prize from restored governance and a credible strategy.", "thesisTypes": [ "governance_board", "management_change", "operational_turnaround", "strategic_pivot" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Renewables strategy is serial U-turns: Equinor JV dismantled, Dotzenrath out, onshore wind sold", "2025 EBITDA guidance of $46-49bn implicitly cut ~12% to c.$40-43bn via opaque assumptions", "BP €TSR 10% under Looney vs 55-128% for Shell, Chevron, Total, Exxon" ], "scqaSituation": "BP is a UK-listed oil major that in August 2020 unveiled a radical pivot from integrated oil company to integrated energy company, built around 50GW renewables, 2025 EBITDA of $46-49bn and a 2030 EBITDA target of $53-58bn.", "thesisSummary": "Bluebell Capital Partners, in escalating dialogue with BP's Board since May 2024, argues BP's 2020 energy-transition strategy has unravelled into serial U-turns — the Equinor offshore-wind JV was dismantled, new offshore wind halted, US onshore wind put up for sale, renewables head Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath departed within two years, and Lightsource solar projects were ruled unlawful by the Tribunal. The 2025 EBITDA guidance of $46-49bn has been quietly downgraded by roughly 12% via opaque changes in macro assumptions (HSBC estimates c.$40-43bn). Under CEOs Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss, BP's 2024 EPS consensus has fallen 24% while Chevron, Shell, Total and Exxon rose 19-51%, and BP's €TSR since Looney's appointment is 10% versus 55-128% for peers. Bluebell demands the immediate removal of Chairman Helge Lund and Lead Independent Director Amanda Blanc, and an updated strategic plan at the Q3 results rather than waiting for February 2025.", "primaryDemands": [ "Remove Chairman Helge Lund from the Board", "Remove Lead Independent Director Dame Amanda Blanc", "Publish an updated strategic plan at Q3 2024 results rather than waiting until February 2025", "Provide a transparent bridge explaining the changes to 2025 EBITDA macro assumptions", "Explain Lightsource BP's plans to build solar farms above the 50MW approval threshold" ], "scqaResolution": "Remove Chairman Helge Lund and Lead Independent Director Amanda Blanc, and force management to publish an updated strategic plan at Q3 2024 results rather than waiting until February 2025.", "thesisOneLiner": "BP's 2020 energy-transition strategy is collapsing in serial U-turns and missed targets; removing Chairman Helge Lund and Lead Independent Director Amanda Blanc is essential to restore accountability.", "precedentsCited": [], "scqaComplication": "The strategy has collapsed into serial U-turns — offshore-wind JV dismantled, renewables head Dotzenrath out within 24 months, Lightsource projects ruled unlawful, and the 2025 EBITDA target quietly cut ~12% via opaque macro-assumption changes.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 7, 8 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Shell", "Chevron", "TotalEnergies", "ExxonMobil" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "not_shown" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "tension", "title": "This is the first page of a formal letter.", "function": "frame_problem", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/PJs3hVG-I4yaKXZgHG8XGLAkkdGhQUtIHUoGnsFHjaw/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy81ZTViZTg3Y2VlMmYvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", 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"extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:34.643+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "309e7704-6987-4c31-b123-16794dbc6e6b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "First, we are shocked that you have not responded to our previous letter dated 23rd July 2024. By refusing to provide us with a clear, rational answer... you are de facto admitting that Lightsource BP is either wasting shareholder capital or trying to circumvent regulation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:34.643+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6bf2f970-f13a-4c48-8776-9e4da689bb77", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To the kind attention of: Board of Directors, BP Plc, 1 St James's Square, London SW1Y 4PD, United Kingdom", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:34.643+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a5e4ddec-8687-471b-bb0d-d4049334c1c1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Subject: BP – A continuing history of systematic value destruction under the leadership of a Board we believe has proved itself incompetent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:34.643+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e2b7e221-7301-4304-b5a9-c860ed89bf20", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In addition to this, we are amazed that the Board is not acting more decisively, given that 1) the renewables strategy has been a series of complete U-turns with no apparent consistency (just witness the latest announcement to sell the US onshore wind", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:34.643+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "efa57847-0c91-4dbe-a8c2-76edd9f85a1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 https://www.bluebellcp.com/_files/ugd/553283_aa1eaeb30be944c8ee70b7803d679.pdf", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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On 4th August 2020, BP unveiled a new strategy... The strategy was partially reversed in February 2023... targets for refining throughput... were completely abandoned... targets for traded electricity... and for partnerships... had also been dropped.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:34.102+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ed020136-9771-4e8c-b401-a97d12283bd0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": 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On 14th September 2021, BP announced the hire of Ms. Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath... in April 2024 - merely two years into the job - BP announced that Ms. Dotzenrath was leaving the company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:36.131+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "04d4a113-f2cb-4665-b6f5-9310a2dffd08", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "2. On 10th September 2020, BP entered a strategic partnership with Equinor... In 2023, BP took a $1.1bn impairment... in January 2024, BP announced the dismantling of the JV... in June 2024, BP halted new offshore wind projects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:36.131+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "22c33b36-aa55-4eb8-a844-4c069423fc70", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "4. According to BP governance (2024), one of the duties of the Senior Independent Director is to be available to address shareholders' concerns... on 7th and again 13th May, 2024, BP's Senior Lead Independent Director Amanda Blanc refused.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:36.131+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "309c7652-2c68-49ac-ab8e-1f4854a495fe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"as an important step towards its aim of having developed 50GW of renewable power by 2030\" — BP Press Release; \"exactly the right person at exactly the right time, a globally respected and deeply experienced leader in renewable energy with a proven track record of transforming and growing businesses\" — former CEO Looney; \"be available to address shareholders' concerns which have failed to be resolved by the chair, CEO or CFO or for which such contact is inappropriate\" — BP governance (2024)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:08:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0931-74b9-a330-7cbaa95b922a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "2, 3, 4, 5: Source URLs for the claims made in the numbered list.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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BP's Code of Ethics require BP's Officers “owe a duty to the Company to act with integrity (...). Integrity requires, among other things, being honest and candid (...). Deceit and subordination of principle are inconsistent with integrity.” (BP's Code of Ethics)6: BP, acting through its subsidiary Lightsource, obtained planning permission to build a solar farm at Burnhope, subsequently revoked by the Tribunal to be “unlawful”7. At the 2024 AGM, BP, failing in its basic transparency obligations towards shareholders, refused to answer questions on its unlawful conduct in pursuing business opportunities in the renewable sector.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:52:38.626+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "023dfb6b-5d28-4205-b8a3-4959f4cf02a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "6. As highlighted earlier, BP refused to provide any explanation of what appears to us to be a clear attempt to circumvent current Planning regulation, in the application submitted by the Company for two new solar farms in March 2024 (Hett Moore) and June 2024 (Burnhope) (see our letter dated 23rd July, 2024)8. 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On 7th February 2023 (at Q4 2022 results), BP announced a 2025 Ebitda guidance of $46-49bn, guidance which was reiterated at every opportunity since then, including the Denver Investor Day in October 2023 and the Q1 2024 results in May 2024. The achievement of this target was supposed to be the ultimate proof that BP's strategy was delivering shareholder value creation. It is clear to us that this is a figure that the market never believed in, as can be seen from the following charts – a demonstrable futile exercise on BP's part. 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