{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9c-7f2ac9bf331f", "slug": "2afd1d7556e8", "title": "The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)", "subtitle": "Elliott · 2023-05", "author": "Elliott", "date": "2023-05-11 00:00:00", "pageCount": 41, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.75, "targetCompany": "The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company", "targetTicker": "GT", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9c-7f2ac9bf331f", "slug": "2afd1d7556e8", "title": "The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)", "rawTitle": "Goodyear Tire Industrial Elliott Goodyear Presentation May 2023", "authorId": "02_Elliott_Management", "authorName": "Elliott", "authorDisplay": "Elliott", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2023-05-Elliott-Management-Goodyear-Tire-Industrial-Elliott-Goodyear-Presentation-May-2023.pdf", "sourceUrl": "https://AcceleratingGT.com", "sourceDate": "2023-05-11 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2023-05-11 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-23 01:34:04+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 41, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.75, "targetCompany": "The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company", "targetTicker": "GT", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/2afd1d7556e8", "activist_firm": "Elliott Investment Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 228.58333897590637 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 41, "pagesIndexed": 41, "pagesWithImages": 41, "pagesWithMetadata": 41, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 293, "chartCount": 33, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 15, "documentToolMatches": 5, "frameworkMatches": 21, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "a9123ca6-e52b-43c1-b9cb-bd4bc0bf5375", "evidence": "The document follows a clear problem-agitate-solution structure, highlighting Goodyear's underperformance, the complications arising from its current strategy, and proposed solutions to address these issues.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:03:34.40298+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 31, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 17, "name": "Problem", "beatId": "82556912-7c3f-4e07-8f10-c064b20bcc41", "matchId": "a9123ca6-e52b-43c1-b9cb-bd4bc0bf5375", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document highlights Goodyear's underperformance, low operating margins, and ineffective go-to-market strategy.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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Cover features a Goodyear-liveried race car. SCQA structure is tight: Market Leader / Poor Performance / Accelerating Goodyear tri-column (p6) then four numbered grievances (p17). Rhetoric relies heavily on quoting CEO Kramer and former CFO Darren Wells verbatim to document repeatedly-broken margin promises (p29). Ex-employee and ex-competitor quotes reinforce operational critique. Elliott signals breadth of diligence (90+ former-employee interviews, ops consultant, customer surveys, shareholder survey). Stake (~10% / ~$1B, reported publicly the same day) is NOT disclosed inside the deck. All pages bear '10XEBITDA.com' watermark — indicates this copy was redistributed via a third-party repository.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Goodyear 5.1% vs peer average 10.7% (Pirelli 14.8%, Michelin 11.9%, Bridgestone 11.7%)", "metric": "CY2022 adjusted operating margin" }, { "detail": "Widened from (1.0)% in 2016 to (7.0)% in 2023E", "metric": "Operating margin gap vs Michelin/Bridgestone" }, { "detail": "(208) vs S&P 500; (156) vs 2021 proxy peers; (332) over current CEO tenure", "metric": "10-year cumulative TSR underperformance" }, { "detail": "21% #1 (Michelin 15%, Bridgestone 14%, Continental 8%)", "metric": "US replacement volume share" }, { "detail": "376 SKUs — ~2x Bridgestone's 200 and Michelin's 150", "metric": "SKU count" }, { "detail": "Goodyear only (128)bps vs Michelin (369)bps and Bridgestone (242)bps", "metric": "SG&A reduction since 2016" }, { "detail": "Sell-out ASP +38% vs sell-in +24% since 2016 — ~$400M lost profit / ~205bps on 2023E revenue", "metric": "Channel cost / TireHub drag" }, { "detail": "~1,025 global stores; ~715 consumer retail generating ~$1.5B revenue and ~$195M EBITDA", "metric": "Company-owned retail footprint" }, { "detail": "12.9x public peer / 14.6x precedent TEV/EBITDA multiples imply ~$2.4B net proceeds", "metric": "Retail store valuation" }, { "detail": "Invested capital +46% while NOPAT declined 42%; Michelin +38%/+26%, Bridgestone +38%/+7%", "metric": "Invested capital vs NOPAT 2016-2022" }, { "detail": "$3B segment operating income by 2020; 2020 actual ($14M); 2022 only $1.3B", "metric": "2016 Investor Day target" }, { "detail": "+385bps = 114bps SG&A + 201bps go-to-market + 70bps brand/SKU", "metric": "Margin upside bridge" }, { "detail": "~115% annual payout ratio over last three years despite poor performance", "metric": "Management incentive payout" }, { "detail": "7 analysts cover Goodyear vs 12-20 for peers (Continental 20, Pirelli 19, Michelin 18)", "metric": "Sell-side coverage" }, { "detail": "Goodyear (3%) vs Driven Brands 14%, Mister 12%, Boyd 11%, Valvoline 9%, Monro 4%", "metric": "Retail-platform unit CAGR 2017-2022" } ], "closingAsk": "Engage with Elliott on Board enhancement, begin the process of monetizing the retail platform, and form an Operational Review Committee.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:34:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 228.58334, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Monetizing retail ($4/share) plus recapturing 385bps of margin ($16/share) yields a pro-forma share price of $32 — 179% upside from $11 — assuming no TEV/EBITDA multiple expansion.", "thesisTypes": [ "operational_turnaround", "governance_board", "breakup_spinoff", "cost_cutting", "management_change" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Retail stores alone could be worth nearly Goodyear's entire market capitalization", "Operating margin of 5.1% vs 10.7% peer average — gap has widened, not closed", "CEO missed 2016 Investor Day $3B target by ~70%; margin promises repeatedly broken" ], "scqaSituation": "Goodyear is the #1 North American tire manufacturer with 21% replacement share, the three largest NA plants, leading OE attach rates with GM/Stellantis/Ford/Tesla, and a 125-year brand — operating in a favorable high-value-added tire market.", "thesisSummary": "Elliott argues Goodyear — the #1 US tire manufacturer with a 125-year brand and 21% replacement-volume share — has materially underperformed for a decade due to self-inflicted operational missteps, most notably the 2018 TireHub distribution JV that cost ~$400M in lost profit and widened the margin gap with Michelin and Bridgestone to ~700bps. Management has missed every long-term target since 2016 (falling ~70% short of the $3B segment operating income goal) and lowered margin guidance repeatedly. Elliott recommends three actions: refresh the board with five new independent directors, monetize the ~715 Company-owned retail stores (worth nearly the entire market cap at peer multiples), and launch an operational review to recapture 385bps of SG&A, go-to-market, and brand/SKU margin. Combined, these unlock $32/share — 179% upside from $11 — assuming no multiple expansion.", "primaryDemands": [ "Appoint five new independent directors identified by Elliott with automotive and operational experience", "Monetize Goodyear's ~715 Company-owned consumer retail stores via sale to a focused, well-capitalized buyer", "Form an Operational Review Committee to close the margin gap vs. Michelin and Bridgestone", "Conduct a management review and consider leadership change", "Use retail sale proceeds to de-lever the balance sheet" ], "scqaResolution": "The Board should appoint five new independent directors with auto/operations expertise, sell the ~715 Company-owned retail stores to de-lever, and form an Operational Review Committee to recapture the 385bps margin gap.", "thesisOneLiner": "Goodyear's industry-low 5% margin and under-monetized 715-store retail platform create $32/share of value vs $11 today — via board refresh, retail sale, and operational review.", "precedentsCited": [ "Mavis Tire sale to BayPine (16.7x LTM EBITDA)", "Pep Boys acquisition by Icahn Enterprises (14.2x)", "Midas acquisition by TBC Corporation (13.0x)", "Driven Brands' acquisition of International Car Wash Group (2020)" ], "scqaComplication": "Despite these advantages, Goodyear posts industry-low 5.1% operating margin — ~560bps below peers and widening — driven by a failed TireHub distribution JV, bloated SG&A, uncontrolled SKU proliferation, and an under-invested retail platform.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 6, 8, 19, 29, 39 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Michelin", "Bridgestone", "Continental", "Pirelli", "Hankook", "Toyo", "Apollo Tyres", "Driven Brands", "Monro", "Boyd Group", "Valvoline", "Mister Car Wash", "Mavis Tire Supply", "Pep Boys", "Midas", "TBC Corporation", "Firestone", "Cooper Tire", "TireHub", "American Tire Distributors" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "sum_of_parts", "multiple_comparison", "precedent_transactions" ], 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Poor Shareholder Returns: For more than a decade, owning Goodyear stock has been a losing proposition. 2. Industry-Low Operating Margin: Industry-low operating margin due to suboptimal SG&A spend, go-to-market strategy and brand strategy. 3. Underutilized Retail Platform: Goodyear’s retail business represents a significant “trapped value” opportunity. 4. 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As an industry participant, the stores are doing the brand no favors poor service levels, general appearance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:55:47.716+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "85ee8b8f-d4be-4ed1-8c94-395ed785e73d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "With retail, you can't be half pregnant. You either commit to it or you don't. 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