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Atypical for a contrarian-activist corpus: Pershing is long-biased and explicitly praises CEO Dara Khosrowshahi as 'industry-leading' — no activism, no board demands, no villain. Thesis is classic undervaluation + multiple rerating: the market is mispricing AV risk on a 30%+ EPS grower. closing_ask set to null because this is an LP-facing fund update, not a campaign deck with a shareholder call-to-action. presentation_date set to 2025-02-01 as a month-level placeholder; exact day is not printed on the excerpted pages. PDF is watermarked 'www.10XEBITDA.com', indicating it was sourced via that third-party site rather than Pershing Square directly. 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EBITDA margin (% of gross bookings)" }, { "detail": "High-30s% to 40%", "metric": "Adj. EBITDA CAGR (management guidance)" }, { "detail": "($0.8)bn 2021A -> $1.7bn 2022A -> $4.1bn 2023A -> $6.5bn 2024A", "metric": "Adj. EBITDA trajectory" }, { "detail": "3% annual headcount growth vs. 20% bookings CAGR since 2019", "metric": "Headcount vs. bookings growth" }, { "detail": "-3% while forward consensus EPS rose more than 50%", "metric": "Share price since Feb 2024 Investor Update" }, { "detail": "~20% per ride", "metric": "Uber take-rate" }, { "detail": "14 partners across mobility, delivery, and freight", "metric": "AV partnerships" }, { "detail": "<1%", "metric": "Rideshare penetration of total annual miles driven" } ], "closingAsk": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:02:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 611.49384, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "As AV-overhang fades and margins expand toward the 7% long-term target, Pershing Square expects Uber's share price to more than double from $79 over the next 3 to 4 years.", "thesisTypes": [ "undervaluation", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Uber trades at 29x earnings despite 30%+ EPS growth — a low multiple for its profile", "EBITDA margin 4% today vs. 7% long-term target, with high-30s to 40% CAGR guidance", "AV risk overblown: 14 AV partners, delivery ~50%, international >50% insulate Uber" ], "scqaSituation": "Uber is the world's leading rideshare and delivery marketplace — 170mm monthly customers, 8mm drivers, 70 countries, ~$160bn of gross bookings — with powerful two-sided network effects and improving operating leverage under Dara Khosrowshahi.", "thesisSummary": "Pershing Square has initiated a new long position in Uber at ~$79/share and a $168bn market cap, arguing the market has unfairly punished the stock over autonomous-vehicle fears. Uber is the world's leading rideshare and delivery marketplace with 170mm monthly customers and 8mm drivers across 70 countries, generating ~$160bn in gross bookings split between mobility and Uber Eats, with international now over half. Management under Dara Khosrowshahi has driven Adjusted EBITDA from ($0.8bn) in 2021 to $6.5bn in 2024, with guidance for high-30s to 40% CAGR toward a 7% long-term margin and +30% annual EPS growth. Yet shares trade at 29x while consensus EPS has risen more than 50% over the past year. 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Attempting to replicate Uber's capabilities (vs. partnering) is economically irrational. Demand aggregation of 170mm customers and rider-matching technology significantly increases utilization and revenues. Scaled-network provides driver routing, pricing function, insurance, regulatory support, customer support, fleet management services. 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Consistent “superhuman” safety profile needed for widescale consumer acceptance with potential for headline risk to derail adoption. AVs currently regulated by states and federal transportation safety agencies who are appropriately cautious. Capital-intensive road infrastructure, car-charging, and parking build out required for large-scale AV introduction", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:58:59.093+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d8ff39be-5547-42be-b543-8c7a3c3a6df6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Large-scale U.S. AV rideshare introduction is unlikely for many years", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:58:59.093+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b2dd320-50f4-4987-8e08-e204a380a607", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Uber's product and geographic diversification insulate it from potential AV risks", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:58:59.093+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2616ce2a-494c-4e6e-9922-d6380ac6c1de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AV companies likely to partner with Uber over time due to its strong value proposition", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:58:59.093+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c37adfaa-1ecd-4aad-943e-c7527290496e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Large-scale AV introduction would likely significantly expand overall rideshare market", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:58:59.093+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ce34f903-c935-43bc-8f21-62c754ef8c15", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company filings and Pershing Square estimates. This slide contains Pershing Square's own views and opinions, based on publicly available information, to illustrate Pershing Square's thinking on the matters therein.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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