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"storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "analytical", "notes": "Initial public deck of Pershing's 2017 ADP proxy contest, filed shortly after the Aug 7, 2017 Schedule 13D and ahead of the November annual meeting; classified as proxy_fight rather than initial_thesis because the contest is already underway and the deck is positioned as a solicitation. Stake percentage not disclosed within this document (references Schedule 13D for ownership detail) — left null per instructions. Heavy use of expert-network quotes from former ADP executives ('SVP of Technology', 'Former DVP Business Transformation', 'Former CEO and COO of [Redacted] ADP Country') as a rhetorical device. Strong use of CEO quote contradictions (Carlos Rodriguez 'best direct sales force in the world' juxtaposed against productivity decline). Solera/CDK case studies function as before-after proof points. Sum-of-parts present at the sub-segment margin level (SMB ~41%, Mid-Market 35-45%, Enterprise mid-20s-30%+, International mid-20s-30%) rather than asset-by-asset breakup valuation. Section dividers (I-IX plus A-F) take up many of the 168 pages, so the deck is not as dense as the page count suggests.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "ADP ~19% vs Paychex ~41% — 1,900bps gap; potential expansion of 1,500-2,000bps by FY2022", "metric": "Employer Services operating margin (ex-float)" }, { "detail": "ADP 60% vs Paychex 74% — 1,500bps gap", "metric": "Adjusted gross profit margin" }, { "detail": "ADP $161k vs Paychex $214k (1.3x); ADP flat since 2008 while Paychex compounded 4.4%", "metric": "Net Operational Revenue per Employee" }, { "detail": "ADP ~$165k vs Paychex $205k, Paycom $427k, Ultimate $1,134k; ADP down ~20% vs 2011 on net basis", "metric": "Sales force productivity per quota-carrying rep" }, { "detail": "ADP $859m (9% of net op revenue) vs Ultimate $159m (20%); ~65% of ADP's spend on legacy maintenance", "metric": "Systems Development & Programming spend" }, { "detail": "Down ~8% per year (5,000 in 2009 to ~2,500 in 2017); Mid-Market 0% CAGR", "metric": "Enterprise client count CAGR" }, { "detail": "$5.90 status quo vs $8.70 transformation case (+47%)", "metric": "FY2022 EPS" }, { "detail": "101-132% over four years to June 2021 (IRR 20-25%) at 24x-28x P/E on $8.70 EPS", "metric": "Total Shareholder Return potential" }, { "detail": "~11 at ADP vs 4-5 at Paychex", "metric": "Management layers between BU President and lowest level" } ], "closingAsk": "Vote for Pershing's three nominees (Ackman, Hagen, Unruh) at the 2017 annual meeting to elect a major shareholder and two independent directors and signal that the status quo is unacceptable.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 00:39:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 279.56824, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Lift Employer Services margins from ~19% to mid-to-high-30s%, FY2022 EPS from a status-quo $5.90 to $8.70 (+47%), and the share price from ~$110 to $221-$255 by June 2021 — a 101-132% total return.", "thesisTypes": [ "operational_turnaround", "governance_board", "management_change", "cost_cutting" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Employer Services earns only ~19% operating margins versus Paychex's ~41% — a 1,900bps gap despite superior scale", "ADP spin-offs Solera and CDK both expanded margins ~2,000bps within a few years of leaving ADP, proving the potential is real", "Fixing ADP lifts FY2022 EPS from $5.90 to $8.70 (+47%) and the share price to $221-$255 — a 101-132% total return by June 2021" ], "scqaSituation": "ADP is the $49bn industry leader in HR and payroll outsourcing, serving ~700,000 clients globally through three businesses — Employer Services, PEO, and Client Fund Float Income — with Employer Services driving roughly two-thirds of profit.", "thesisSummary": "Pershing Square argues ADP is a 'lethargic, inefficient sleeping giant' whose Employer Services segment generates only ~19% operating margins versus Paychex's ~41% and Ultimate Software's 30-40% structural potential — a gap created by a decades-old COBOL-based AutoPay engine, a 'spaghetti' of legacy products, bloated sales and implementation headcount, a functional matrix structure with up to 11 management layers, and ~$300m of legacy IT spend that crowds out real R&D. The deck quantifies a 1,500-2,000bps margin opportunity in Employer Services by FY2022, lifting EPS from a status-quo $5.90 to $8.70 (~47%) and the share price to $221-$255 (101-132% total return) by June 2021. Pershing invokes Solera and CDK Global — both former ADP segments that expanded margins ~2,000bps within years of leaving ADP — as living proof. The ask is to elect Bill Ackman and two independent directors at the 2017 annual meeting.", "primaryDemands": [ "Elect Pershing's three nominees (William Ackman, Veronica Hagen, V. Paul Unruh) to the ADP board", "Form a board committee to oversee an operational transformation plan", "Redesign management incentives and compensation to align with long-term value", "Accelerate investment in product and back-end technology; sunset legacy COBOL/PeopleSoft systems", "Reduce excess support headcount and unwind the siloed matrix corporate structure", "Restore sub-segment disclosure (revenue, retention, profitability by SMB/Mid-Market/Enterprise/International)" ], "scqaResolution": "Elect Bill Ackman and two independent directors at the 2017 annual meeting, form a board transformation committee, redesign management incentives, accelerate product and back-end investment, cut legacy IT spend, and unwind the matrix corporate structure.", "thesisOneLiner": "ADP is a sleeping giant earning 19% Employer Services margins versus peers' 35-40% potential; electing Pershing's nominees catalyzes a transformation worth 100%+ in under four years.", "precedentsCited": [ "Solera 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We have about a little over $2 billion of revenue in that space and 4,000 clients.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:40.816+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d5a86322-284d-4c0e-8fab-febfdc40f084", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "[Y]ou can see as you move to the right, national accounts spaces for clients with employees over 1,000. 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And it's 2,000 to 3,000 clients. — Carlos Rodriguez, CEO", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d2-45d346029fe8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) ADP Annual Financial Analyst Conference. 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Growth is slowing while ADP's sales force growth is accelerating", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:42.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d1c8b04c-83bc-4c66-bf15-1b4b00b6b45b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "ADP’s PEO pass-throughs are inflating growth. Growth is slowing while ADP’s sales force growth is accelerating", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d3-a478b9b56202", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "FY 2011-2017 Revenue CAGR - Ex Float (%)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:42.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "14433490-b46f-49b4-ad95-332f1a543206", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Revenue CAGR: 7.3%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d3-a8162c1795a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) Excludes Dealer Services in all periods. 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This is not heroic in light of industry tailwinds and an 8% CAGR increase in ADP’s sales force(1)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:42.399+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "71c9677c-0f9b-46d5-bc26-53a65ee55e0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Bookings ($m) from 2011A to 2018E", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:42.399+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "59396818-64a5-4e8e-a563-bf8d0732b4da", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "CAGR: 7%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d4-ab446764039f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: SEC financials, press releases. (1) FY'2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016 informed by conference call commentary. FY'2013 extrapolated based on 2012 and 2014 commentary. 2017 and 2018E based on management growth rates discussing the growth in total salesforce using the 2016 figure as a base.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8/41", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8#slide-41", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "We estimate that pass-throughs embedded in gross bookings have increased materially (from ~27% to ~37% of gross bookings) given the PEO's growth, inflating bookings growth by ~200bps p.a.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, 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"112699a1-4cda-4719-92a7-f4edf61bc90b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "bookings growth: 200bps", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d3-c37f4998dd2f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": 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Our Clients' Prior Vendors", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Donut chart", "slug": "donut", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0006-752c-9528-0fef476b8004", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "donut", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:43.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "24208610-d04b-4f39-9013-11b1b308cb04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We also have the same information for clients that we lose... I wish could tell you that there is a specific pattern, but there isn't... 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Unfortunately, there really isn't -- I think we said this numerous times and it hasn't changed, that there really isn't one specific competitor or category, even... I wish could tell you that there is a specific pattern, but there isn't, which is a -- in my opinion, is a good thing. We don't see any one competitor that is creating an enormous problem for us, and we also don't see any one competitor where it is kind of easy pickings for us. I think it is fairly balanced across the board.\" — Carlos Rodriguez(1); \"We typically get between 45% and 50% of our new units from ADP... I think our culture, product, and service -- we end up winning a lot. 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"w": 0.8, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "How We Analyze the Business-Mix-Adjusted Structural Margin Potential of ADP:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:44.881+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b4efc621-d339-4c5a-8929-f2b4a498e3b6", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "62b3a19b-0712-4d56-80b2-7080a7af37e2", "evidence": "The slide describes a step-by-step 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"description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 62, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 927, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses historical margin data and business mix percentages to establish Paychex as a valid proxy for ADP's SMB segment performance.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "bullet_list", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:46.441+00", "seconds": 3.69, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8/63", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8#slide-63", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Paychex is a direct comparable to ADP in SMB (low- to mid-20s% of ES)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:46.441+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f03845fb-452b-44c3-a146-1cef02917e1a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Payroll (~55%) and Human Resources Services, including Beyond Payroll (~22%) and ASO / PEO (~22%); business mix is very similar to ADP. Paychex’s ASO is significantly large; PEO is smaller as % of revenue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:46.441+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6ab67866-729b-479b-87df-ed6a5b190c48", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Both are mature industry participants with mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth and a “service bureau” legacy. Paychex had ~20% operational margins in the late 1990s. Paychex expanded margins to 32% by 2001, and 38% by 2013.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:46.441+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "85d345e3-3f0e-4714-b8a2-8c5366b4a464", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Former senior ADP executives stated that internal “like-for-like” SMB-only benchmarking to Paychex showed 1,500bps+ lower margins at ADP, with some recent improvement.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:46.441+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dab21dce-805c-43fa-842e-beefc5a58a61", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "operational margins: 38%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d5-7bfb27fc0822", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) PEO estimated at ~11% of total revenue based on management commentary noting PEO comprises ¼ of HRS revenue (Q2’2017 earnings call), growing double-digits. 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}, "componentId": "d036bec3-f0e4-4da6-94bf-ae8f1ce5e8dc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Layering ADP’s current operating expense burden of ~39% on competitor gross margins of 73% – 85% yields operating margins of 34% – 46%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": 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0.18 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Mid-Market is ADP's largest sub-segment at ~35% – 40% of Employer Service revenue. ADP is by far the #1 market leader, ~10x public competitors, and enjoys massive scale. Small regional competitors (Paycom, Paylocity) report recurring operational gross margins of 73% – 85%. Layering ADP's current operating expense burden of ~39% on competitor gross margins of 73% – 85% yields operating margins of 34% – 46%. 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(1) Adjusted to exclude float income and to strip out D&A (expensed below the line) for consistent comparisons to ADP.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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reaches scale and rapid growth slows", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:48.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "700bbced-6122-4c58-a572-099c87bc368a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe Enterprise should have consolidated operating margins of mid-20s% to 30%, including the drag from lower-margin BPO / benefits, etc.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", 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(2) https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/techflash/2016/01/mass-software-firm-eyes-1-2b-in-revenue-considers.html; see appendix case study. (3) Q4'2017 Lender Update, pro forma \"cash\" adjusted EBITDA. Note only a minority of Infor revenue is HCM specific. Current margins are suppressed by license to SaaS transition. 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20:00:47.975+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ce2c0c2c-562b-4f54-986d-61b2dbcbb658", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Domestic HCM is Structurally Profitable", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:47.975+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": 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Vantage is likely unprofitable as ADP invests to redevelop the product", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:54.5+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ce82fbac-561e-4398-bce2-e34cbd6feff8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Former VP of National Accounts, Product Management: [N]othing talks to each other.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:54.5+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1725442d-9f4b-4368-9afd-752a7b0c13f0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Former VP of National Accounts, Product Management: [There is a] GM for each one of these groups, all have their own P&L, all have their own bonuses... all of these GMs are incented based on their own business. They don't really care all that much about the other functional capabilities... they are paid on their small slice of the Net Promoter Score for their own unit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:54.5+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "78933a1d-a63e-48eb-bf9f-1c38fe4b27a4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"[There is a] GM for each one of these groups, all have their own P&L, all have their own bonuses... all of these GMs are incented based on their own business. 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Our research may be slightly outdated such that certain modules may have been sunsetted in recent years. (1) Note that ADP sells Workforce Now in Enterprise. We understand that the product can scale quite well up to the ~3k employee range. (2) We believed The Right Thing applicant tracking module replaced VirtualEdge; ADP may have allowed VirtualEdge to die on the vine.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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20:00:51.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "72abe811-332f-44b4-abbc-78bc67520e03", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Support teams lack a unified view of the client", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88249330-7c8f-4beb-a936-b708631b3339", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "list", "text": "By the time ADP fully migrates onto its unified CRM system, the system will be dated relative to best-in-class solutions", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d7488624-c8c4-4394-80d4-a879b445dba2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Bloated Back-End – Example #3: Outdated and Duplicative Support Tools", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ced25a56-8d2e-4a49-8158-fcc345e32904", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 97, "type": "setup", "function": "transition", "rawType": "section_divider", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "section_divider", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Section divider", "slug": "section_divider", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-066a-7402-9554-6ae504999041", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "transition", "functionCanon": { "name": "Transition", "slug": "transition", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1365-7149-92aa-66df859e75fd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 1, "componentCount": 1, "textChars": 46, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "headline_text" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:50.052+00", "seconds": 1.938, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8/97", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-d9b3dd5a51e8", "deckAnchor": 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ADP's Sales Force Productivity is Declining", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:50.052+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9bc179b3-eb4d-4501-8912-d95bec69ebfe", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 98, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'problem-solution' structure, identifying the productivity decline and then quantifying 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"groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.736+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "10402f2c-8758-4197-b743-c5260b2c330c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "If ADP returned to FY 2012 productivity levels in ES this would drive ~$65m–$90m of profit, or ~75bps – 110bps of margin opportunity for ES(2)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.736+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c18a995a-644b-4e09-8e09-458669380a66", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "list", "text": "ADP has grown its sales force in recent years despite the abatement of ACA-related activity in an attempt to make up for declining productivity", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.736+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "453558d3-1a7a-4f84-a80d-bd559f71fc5c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "list", "text": "In light of the significant decline in aggregate productivity, we suspect there are likely some very low productivity sales associates", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.736+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "707b8af0-3f1c-4491-9530-4bed6f62ed7a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Sales associates have grown from ~5,000 in FY 2014 to ~6,540+ currently,(1) (targeting 4% additional growth in FY 2018) while total Net and Employer Services Bookings have increased only modestly", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.736+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9a88b58f-10e1-4353-8332-7297f6448cde", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "list", "text": "ADP sales productivity should be analyzed on a net basis, isolating the gross up of PEO pass-through revenue on bookings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:51.736+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cabdade5-49db-4e55-ba65-8aec69dd651d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "margin opportunity: ~$65m-$90m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:03+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98d8-8c1a7cd5407b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) ADP 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I'm sure that products are helping, but clearly it's also really great execution and great leadership in that organization. They have proven once again this quarter that we have the best direct sales force in the world.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:00:54.762+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ab3f2e94-1d6b-4250-b5a1-2b77c33c8b42", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The way to think about the 10% [growth in bookings], both in the past and in terms of our future intention, is that roughly half of our growth will come through headcount additions. 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We were doing a disservice selling a 1,200 employee client Vantage when we would have done a better job selling Workforce Now... 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Imagine a 49 employee client moved into Majors and is now being sold Workforce Now. Who owns that client? Is this an SBS or a Majors upsell opportunity? Consider it – there's separate sales leaders. Everything is segmented by size. The revenue is 'owned' by regional GMs with their own P&L. 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The other leading SaaS companies, service and implementation are utilities. They can matrix in. It’s the exact opposite at ADP… If you only control service and support, you’ll try and improve margin with that. Show 100-200-300 bps and do it on the backs of people, throw some efficiency service tools. They are incapable of fundamentally transforming the customer experience from a service business to a SaaS experience, they don’t control the tools.” — Former DVP, Business Transformation; “Only three people [beyond Carlos] really looked across the entire business: head of IT, head of sales and the CFO. If doing your thing was bad for the overall business, but good for your business, that’s what you’d do because that’s what the incentives drove… I would integrate the service and implementations teams. [There is] an opportunity to restructure, get product complexity down. Look at the segmentation, figure out if this is right. 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