{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-b1168ab6bd8a", "slug": "ddfbb08119f4", "title": "Multiple holdings (Pershing Square portfolio)", "subtitle": "Pershing Square · 2016-04", "author": "Pershing Square", "date": "2016-04-26 00:00:00", "pageCount": 82, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Multiple holdings (Pershing Square portfolio)", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-b1168ab6bd8a", "slug": "ddfbb08119f4", "title": "Multiple holdings (Pershing Square portfolio)", "rawTitle": "2016 European Investor Meeting Presentation1", "authorId": "01_Pershing_Square", "authorName": "Pershing Square", "authorDisplay": "Pershing Square", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2016-04-2016-European-Investor-Meeting-Presentation1.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2016-04-26 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2016-04-26 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-23 00:24:17+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 82, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Multiple holdings (Pershing Square portfolio)", "targetTicker": null, "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/ddfbb08119f4", "activist_firm": "Pershing Square Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 162.25518107414246 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 82, "pagesIndexed": 82, "pagesWithImages": 82, "pagesWithMetadata": 82, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 403, "chartCount": 24, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 34, "documentToolMatches": 4, "frameworkMatches": 25, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 5, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "2b80c65a-a30e-419d-a07d-726262b7b276", "evidence": "The presentation follows a logical structure, starting with an overview of the portfolio companies, followed by a detailed review of each company, and concluding with an update on the team and performance results.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:21:11.707597+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Situation & Context", "beatId": "159a4f39-f2d2-4513-bf1f-2bae8fb224d3", "matchId": "2b80c65a-a30e-419d-a07d-726262b7b276", "beatType": { "name": "Situation & Context", "slug": "consultants-gambit-situation-context", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-05ae-741b-992d-65ee83c639b3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The presentation starts with a review of the 2016 YTD fund performance and a disclaimer.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. Almost every arc opens here." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 16, "name": "Problem & Complication", "beatId": "d9003b3a-53aa-4f94-86bd-2474e634971e", "matchId": "2b80c65a-a30e-419d-a07d-726262b7b276", "beatType": { "name": "Problem & Complication", "slug": "consultants-gambit-problem-complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-064a-777f-a374-e9a8c43dedd4", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The presentation highlights challenges faced by some portfolio companies, such as Mondelez's high G&A and Valeant's decline.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 25, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 20, "name": "Solution & Approach", "beatId": "14320934-6187-4f32-877b-512dc1106a60", "matchId": "2b80c65a-a30e-419d-a07d-726262b7b276", "beatType": { "name": "Solution & Approach", "slug": "consultants-gambit-solution-approach", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-071c-7161-9184-580fdac7a4f9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The presentation proposes solutions for some portfolio companies, such as optimizing margins and improving profitability.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 26, "name": "Evidence & Proof", "beatId": "b77d707e-02bd-4f14-869f-50d0466fd310", "matchId": "2b80c65a-a30e-419d-a07d-726262b7b276", "beatType": { "name": "Evidence & Proof", "slug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-07b1-7688-8e1e-7637fec3802a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The presentation provides evidence of progress and growth for some portfolio companies, such as Air Products and Restaurant Brands International.", "position": 3, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Evidence", "slug": "evidence", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-03f9-772a-b84a-4f07b415b77a", "version": 1, "description": "A dedicated proof beat exists in only ~4 arcs (Gambit, Sequoia, AIDA, Monroes). Other arcs embed evidence inline within development." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 82, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 71, "name": "Impact & Next Steps", "beatId": "8ce9203d-d408-4355-8027-991194be49c6", "matchId": "2b80c65a-a30e-419d-a07d-726262b7b276", "beatType": { "name": "Impact & Next Steps", "slug": "consultants-gambit-impact-next-steps", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0849-7728-9ee9-fd1609c4c655", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The presentation concludes with an update on the team and performance results, as well as additional disclaimers and notes.", "position": 4, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 25, "from": 16, "loop": { "name": "02_pattern_hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "canonId": "019dd956-6695-771a-be2e-f1748ef041a4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Logical Reasoning", "categorySlug": "logical-reasoning" }, "matchId": "7cb2903d-8417-4965-8cfe-b7dfc785c00b", "evidence": "The presentation highlights challenges and proposes solutions for some portfolio companies.", "position": 0, "objective": "How can we improve profitability?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:21:11.952982+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 55, "from": 46, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "f7114afd-038c-43c2-aca5-af6c97fbebf1", "evidence": "The presentation highlights the decline of Valeant and Platform Specialty Products Corporation.", "position": 1, "objective": "What are the consequences of not taking action?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:21:11.995064+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 40, "from": 26, "loop": { "name": "21_before_after", "slug": "21-before-after", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product demos, process improvements, ROI justification", "canonId": "019dd956-6e68-73fd-a295-fe90145c2da8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Old Way (Pain) -> The Moment of Change -> The New Way (Glory) -> The Measurable Delta", "description": "Show the dramatic contrast between the old way and the new way through side-by-side comparison", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Comparison", "categorySlug": "comparison" }, "matchId": "e7286e42-bc06-46ec-9340-86efa687f5a1", "evidence": "The presentation provides before-and-after comparisons for some portfolio companies.", "position": 2, "objective": "What are the results of our actions?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:21:12.035765+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "7f301adc-425e-497b-b82d-18ad4744ba87", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "c76b0774-b67e-4c82-b796-ba3dea5ef94a", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "d1dfb39f-a164-4636-a57f-a8a4bf5ccd0b", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "0eea3ea0-de6f-40fd-b40e-4c2c78dc8b8a", "evidence": "Michael Johnson (Herbalife CEO); Mike Pearson (Valeant CEO, being replaced)", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. Build it deliberately.", "familyLabel": "slide-recipe", "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "designer", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "designer" ], "matchId": "beba99a3-4cdc-43e3-9d33-fe03b2b936bb", "evidence": "This is a cover slide with a logo, title, and date.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:14:51.696904+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? What do they know? What do they believe? What do they care about? What do they fear? What decisions can they make?", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "b667babd-d776-4cab-9b9a-82d619873cbc", "evidence": "Mondelez has the most attractive stable of sweet snack brands of any packaged food company", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:14:58.509353+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Core Message Extraction", "slug": "core-message-extraction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Any slide that carries an argument or finding. The diagnostic: if the slide has a chart on it, it needs a core message. Run extraction whenever the current title is a topic (Q3 performance, Customer satisfaction) rather than a claim, or when a reader could reasonably draw more than one conclusion from the visible evidence.", "canonId": "019dd956-bc71-707d-8867-1b2e810175cf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "f85613cb-4b77-462f-bfe6-3b862516e1a6", "description": "The discipline of distilling raw analysis, data, or content into a single declarative sentence — the slide's core message — that the audience would walk away with if they remembered nothing else. Process, not artefact: extraction questions run on the raw content until one sentence falls out.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "14438e65-4bde-4c9e-b90f-ae41d00b39f6", "evidence": "Mondelez: Fantastic Billion Dollar Brands", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "Any slide that carries an argument or finding. The diagnostic: if the slide has a chart on it, it needs a core message. Run extraction whenever the current title is a topic (Q3 performance, Customer satisfaction) rather than a claim, or when a reader could reasonably draw more than one conclusion from the visible evidence.", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:14:58.546308+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "whyItWorks": "Solves the two failure modes of slide writing simultaneously: the topic title (which outsources interpretation to the audience and produces three different conclusions in three different heads) and the multi-thesis stapler (which exceeds working memory and gets remembered as fragments). 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Delivered immediately after Pershing's worst quarter (Q1 2016 -25.6%) driven by 83% Valeant drawdown; framed as defense of the contrarian book and reaffirmation of conviction. Notable rhetorical moves: signature annotated stock-price timeline charts on every position (pages 22, 26, 32, 40, 44, 51, 55, 58, 61, 70); peer-gap EBIT margin chart for Mondelez (p.14); 3G/Heinz precedent chart (p.16); Herbalife CEO recruitment quote contradiction (p.62); Des Walsh 'never been greater' contradiction (p.66). No specific closing ask — closes with personnel updates and Q&A. SCQA fields set to null because the deck has no single unifying thesis (it is a portfolio recap). target_company set to 'Multiple holdings' for the same reason. stake_disclosed_pct null at firm level — individual stakes disclosed per position (MDLZ 5.7%, ZTS 8.6%, VRX ~9%).", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "-25.6% vs S&P 500 +1.3%", "metric": "PSH Q1 2016 net return" }, { "detail": "+476.7% vs S&P 500 +143.4% through 4/19/2016", "metric": "Cumulative Pershing Square LP net return since 2004" }, { "detail": "13.1%, lowest among large-cap packaged food peers (Kraft Heinz 26.5%, Hershey's 20%)", "metric": "Mondelez 2015 EBIT margin" }, { "detail": "600-700 bps above management's 17-18% 2018 target", "metric": "Mondelez optimized EBIT margin opportunity" }, { "detail": "From 15% pre-investment to 22% in most recent quarter", "metric": "Air Products operating margin progression" }, { "detail": "Record 58.9% in Q1 2016, second-best in industry", "metric": "Canadian Pacific operating ratio" }, { "detail": "-83% from $196 average cost to ~$33 by April 21, 2016", "metric": "Valeant share price decline" }, { "detail": "89% of all Member earnings captured by top 1% in 2015 (up from 85%)", "metric": "Herbalife top-1% earnings concentration" }, { "detail": "Flatlined at 4.0mm in 2015; gross adds declined first time", "metric": "Herbalife member base growth" }, { "detail": "$300mm annual cost savings by 2017; margin from 25% (2014) to ~34% (2017)", "metric": "Zoetis cost program target" }, { "detail": "~10% discount as of April 19, 2016", "metric": "PSH discount to NAV" } ], "closingAsk": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 00:24:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 162.25519, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": null, "thesisTypes": [ "undervaluation", "operational_turnaround", "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Mondelez has ~600-700bps of EBIT margin upside above management's 2018 target via 3G-style ZBB", "Q1 -25.6% drawdown is mostly Valeant; the rest of the book is intrinsically undervalued", "Herbalife pyramid is no longer growing — recruitment declining, FTC action appears imminent" ], "scqaSituation": null, "thesisSummary": "Pershing Square's April 2016 European Investor Meeting recaps a brutal Q1 (-25.6% net) driven by an 83% drawdown in Valeant, the fund's largest detractor. Ackman walks investors through the contrarian book — Mondelez (5.7% stake, 600-700bps EBIT margin upside via 3G-style ZBB versus a Heinz precedent of +900bps), Air Products (CEO Seifi Ghasemi's turnaround delivering 22% margins and the Versum spin), Zoetis (8.6%, $300mm cost-out program), Restaurant Brands (3G-operated franchise compounder, +165% since merger), and Canadian Pacific (record 58.9% operating ratio after the Hunter Harrison transformation). Valeant gets a rescue-mode update: Ackman joined the board, Pearson is being replaced by Joe Papa, and stabilization is underway. The Herbalife short thesis is reaffirmed with declining recruitment, fabricated 'Active New Members' metrics, and a looming FTC action. 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Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. (\"Pershing Square\") believes this presentation contains a balanced presentation of the performance of the portfolios it manages, including a general summary of certain portfolio holdings that have both over- and under- performed our expectations. This presentation contains information and analyses relating to some of the Pershing Square funds' positions. Pershing Square may currently or in the future buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment in the companies discussed in this presentation for any reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the information contained here including, without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed herein were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Specific companies or securities shown in this presentation are meant to demonstrate Pershing Square's active investment style and the types of industries and instruments in which we invest and are not selected based on past performance. The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square contained in this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be confidential or otherwise non-public information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation that could lead these companies to disagree with Pershing Square's conclusions. The analyses provided include certain statements, assumptions, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies. Such statements, assumptions, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, assumptions, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. All trademarks included in this presentation are the property of their respective owners. In addition, this presentation includes forward-looking statements with respect to future events and financial performance, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. There are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Neither Pershing Square, nor any entity managed by Pershing Square or any of its affiliates undertake to update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law. This document may not be distributed without the express written consent of Pershing Square and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product. This presentation is expressly qualified in its entirety by reference to PSH's prospectus which includes discussions of certain specific risk factors, tax considerations, fees and other matters, and its other governing documents. 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