{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-7b0c6b27c958", "slug": "650ed2b9854a", "title": "The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)", "subtitle": "William Ackman · 2013-05", "author": "William Ackman", "date": "2013-05-08 00:00:00", "pageCount": 45, "kind": "conference-presentation", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "targetCompany": "The Procter & Gamble Company", "targetTicker": "PG", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-7b0c6b27c958", "slug": "650ed2b9854a", "title": "The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)", "rawTitle": "Procter Gamble Presentation May 2013", "authorId": "01_Pershing_Square", "authorName": "William Ackman", "authorDisplay": "William Ackman", "kind": { "slug": "conference-presentation", "label": "Conference presentation" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2013-05-Pershing-Square-Procter-Gamble-Presentation-May-2013.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2013-05-08 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2013-05-08 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-23 00:08:28+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 45, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "targetCompany": "The Procter & Gamble Company", "targetTicker": "PG", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/650ed2b9854a", "activist_firm": "Pershing Square Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 221.34354496002197 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 45, "pagesIndexed": 45, "pagesWithImages": 45, "pagesWithMetadata": 45, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 221, "chartCount": 5, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 9, "documentToolMatches": 4, "frameworkMatches": 18, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 4, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "f4928847-6ad8-4e1d-9c31-b54d36ca4121", "evidence": "The presentation follows a clear problem-complication-solution approach", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:02:35.651438+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Situation & Context", "beatId": "fcf9803c-efdf-4d57-929f-fbb3443d0ec8", "matchId": "f4928847-6ad8-4e1d-9c31-b54d36ca4121", "beatType": { "name": "Situation & Context", "slug": "consultants-gambit-situation-context", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-05ae-741b-992d-65ee83c639b3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The presentation sets up P&G's business and market context", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. 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Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 13, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "02_pattern_hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "canonId": "019dd956-6695-771a-be2e-f1748ef041a4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Logical Reasoning", "categorySlug": "logical-reasoning" }, "matchId": "3df4ff25-5003-4250-8d32-56b81c4ecab2", "evidence": "The presentation sets up a clear problem statement and supporting data", "position": 0, "objective": "Identify the pattern of P&G's under-earning", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:02:35.83809+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 20, "from": 14, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Narrative", "categorySlug": "narrative" }, "matchId": "ca3c1c5a-c417-4267-b27a-a2fd8e9d1696", "evidence": "The presentation provides a clear valuation and supporting data", "position": 1, "objective": "Reveal the true earnings power of P&G", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:02:35.874331+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 39, "from": 35, "loop": { "name": "21_before_after", "slug": "21-before-after", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product demos, process improvements, ROI justification", "canonId": "019dd956-6e68-73fd-a295-fe90145c2da8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Old Way (Pain) -> The Moment of Change -> The New Way (Glory) -> The Measurable Delta", "description": "Show the dramatic contrast between the old way and the new way through side-by-side comparison", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Comparison", "categorySlug": "comparison" }, "matchId": "cb7b8253-4f91-4ebc-9323-ccf8f5c0d2db", "evidence": "The presentation highlights P&G's recent progress and potential for improvement", "position": 2, "objective": "Show the before and after of P&G's progress", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:02:35.911177+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "c4cbf238-3963-4cac-be2b-2069f7ed3887", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "58e60f75-e575-4468-b18b-49e7bc216982", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "2a02622d-dded-47b5-89a5-93348c245075", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. 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An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Waterfall chart", "slug": "waterfall-chart", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "e2799da3-725f-44a9-a093-570f1f388e64", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "5f4e7781-415d-4d6d-b1c7-183ac8301303", "evidence": "table/data: Gross Margin: 49.6% -> 51.5%; Advertising: (16.5)% -> (16.5)%; Core SG&A: (14.4)% -> (11.0)%; EBIT Margin: 18.8% -> 24.0%", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:14:17.579001+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Waterfall chart", "slug": "waterfall-chart", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "e2799da3-725f-44a9-a093-570f1f388e64", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "656b0851-7357-4d66-a5d9-afde96fe69f3", "evidence": "table/valuation: FY 2011 Gross Margin (Start of Restructuring) 50.9% Plus: 3.5% Annual COGS Productivity ~750bps Less: Reinvestment, Inflation, Negative Mix Shift ~(690)bps FY 2016E Gross Margin 51.5%", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:14:17.715983+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 23, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? 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Follow-up, not initial thesis — Pershing Square's PG position became public in July 2012, and this May 2013 deck is a mid-campaign pressure update arguing the turnaround is lagging and setting a 2-3 quarter ultimatum for CEO Bob McDonald. Rhetoric leans analytical but is pointed: slide 33 lists 21 outside organizations McDonald belongs to (~50 days/year), and slides 23 & 28 weaponize former CEO A.G. Lafley's own past statements (52% gross-margin target; 24% EBIT margin post-Gillette) to argue management has walked away from stated goals. Stake disclosed only as ~29 million shares (not as a percent), so stake_disclosed_pct left null per instructions. No sum-of-parts breakup; thesis is operational/margin-expansion with implicit management change and modest multiple rerating. Visually functional PowerPoint, not Ackman's Canadian Pacific tier. Bob McDonald was in fact replaced by Lafley later in May 2013 — campaign effectively won on the accountability front.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "~$4/share FY2013 vs. $6/share Pershing View by FY2016", "metric": "Current EPS" }, { "detail": "18.8% FY2012 vs. 24.0% Pershing View (matches Colgate)", "metric": "EBIT margin" }, { "detail": "49.6% FY2012 vs. 51.5% Pershing View; category-level analysis implies 52-54%", "metric": "Gross margin" }, { "detail": "14.4% current vs. 11% Pershing View given scale advantage", "metric": "Core SG&A ratio (ex-advertising)" }, { "detail": "3% P&G vs. peer range 4-7% (Unilever 7%, Colgate 6%, L'Oreal 6%)", "metric": "Organic revenue growth" }, { "detail": "<3% P&G plan vs. 4% CPG peer average (Colgate 4.3%, Unilever 4.1%, Kraft 4.2%)", "metric": "Annual COGS productivity" }, { "detail": "40% — behind Unilever 55% and Colgate 50%", "metric": "Emerging markets sales mix" }, { "detail": "$84bn vs. peer benchmark $20bn — 4x scale advantage underutilized", "metric": "Revenue base" }, { "detail": "18.8x CY2013 vs. 21.1x peer average despite biggest cost opportunity", "metric": "P/E multiple" }, { "detail": "McDonald sits on 21 outside organizations (~50+ business days/year)", "metric": "CEO outside commitments" }, { "detail": "~65% of portfolio gaining or holding share vs. only 15% in June 2012", "metric": "US portfolio share trend" }, { "detail": "$125 = $6 EPS × 20x P/E + $5 dividends over two years", "metric": "Target price" } ], "closingAsk": "If McDonald cannot demonstrate a sustainable turnaround in the near term, the Board should install new leadership — delivering ~$125/share (60% upside) within two years.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 00:08:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 221.34355, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Reaching 5% organic growth and 24% EBIT margins lifts EPS from ~$4 to ~$6 by FY 2016; applying a 20x multiple plus two years of dividends yields $125/share — a 60% premium and ~26% compound annual return.", "thesisTypes": [ "operational_turnaround", "cost_cutting", "management_change", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "P&G earns $4 EPS today but should earn $6 by FY 2016 at a 24% EBIT margin", "Organic growth of 3% lags every major peer (Unilever 7%, Colgate 6%) despite better category mix", "Stock at $78 is worth $125 in two years — a 60% premium and 26% CAGR" ], "scqaSituation": "Procter & Gamble is the leading global household and personal-care company, with $84bn revenue, ~$230bn market cap, 25 billion-dollar brands, category leadership in grooming, diapers, and hair care, and ~40% of sales from emerging markets.", "thesisSummary": "Pershing Square owns ~29 million shares of Procter & Gamble and argues the world-class consumer franchise is vastly under-earning its intrinsic potential under CEO Bob McDonald. Despite 25 billion-dollar brands, category leadership in grooming, diapers, and hair care, and ~40% of sales from emerging markets, P&G grows organic revenue at only 3% versus 5-7% for Unilever, Colgate, and L'Oreal, and earns an 18.8% EBIT margin versus Colgate's 24%. Pershing blames bloated overhead, an unfinished Gillette integration, convoluted organizational design, and a distracted CEO sitting on 21 outside boards. Fixing cost structure and restoring 5% organic growth would lift EPS from $4 to $6 by FY 2016; at a 20x multiple plus two years of dividends, the stock is worth $125 — a 60% premium and 26% compound annual return. If McDonald cannot execute, the Board should install new leadership.", "primaryDemands": [ "Hold CEO Bob McDonald accountable for sustained peer underperformance", "Replace the CEO with an internal or external candidate if a sustainable turnaround does not materialize in the next 2-3 quarters", "Raise cost-savings and COGS-productivity targets above the February 2012 $10bn plan", "Drive Core SG&A from 14.4% to ~11% of revenue and gross margin from 49.6% to 51.5% by FY 2016", "Separate the Chairman and CEO roles; improve organizational design, succession planning, and accountability", "Continue aggressive share repurchases" ], "scqaResolution": "Accelerate cost savings beyond the $10bn plan to hit 24% EBIT margin, fix organizational design and capital allocation, and — if McDonald cannot deliver a sustainable turnaround in two to three quarters — replace him with new leadership.", "thesisOneLiner": "P&G is a world-class franchise vastly under-earning under a distracted CEO McDonald; restoring 5% growth and 24% EBIT margins lifts EPS to $6 and shares 60% to $125.", "precedentsCited": [ "Gillette 2005 acquisition synergy plan (A.G. 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Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of trading – buying and selling – securities and financial instruments. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Pershing Square to change its position regarding PG. Pershing Square may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment in PG for any or no reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including, without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:03:27.032+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "21cb968c-e72a-4fa9-8c0c-5445b9090428", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.145, "w": 0.906, "x": 0.047, "y": 0.265 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. (\"Pershing Square\") contained in this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in this presentation that could lead these companies to disagree with Pershing Square's analyses, conclusions and opinions. This presentation and the information contained herein is not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:03:27.032+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "76c9a6f6-9357-4d1f-8d79-f14e100726dd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.235, "w": 0.906, "x": 0.047, "y": 0.435 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "The analyses provided may include certain forward-looking statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies discussed in this presentation, access to capital markets, market conditions and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein and Pershing Square disclaims any liability with respect thereto. 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