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"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 19, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Short-biased research note from Grizzly Research; firm discloses indirect short position but does not disclose a specific stake or price target. The deck's rhetorical spine is pattern-matching: a decade of hyped partnerships (KD Navien 2013; Cummins, Nissan, Honda 2016; unnamed 'global OEM' 2017; Bosch 2018-2025; Weichai 2018-present; Doosan 2019-present) all failing to produce meaningful royalties. Quantitative core: the $1.35m gross-margin-from-9MW math, anchored on Ceres's own 2017 projection of $150/kW gross margin and the $1bn annual global opportunity slide that has since vanished from investor materials. CEO quote-contradiction via historical Phil Caldwell and Alan Aubrey statements about 'very exciting opportunity' and 'ideal partner'. No explicit villain named; critique is of the business model rather than an individual. Format is text-heavy prose report with embedded screenshots from Doosan and Ceres investor materials, not a slide deck.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Single 9MW order from related-party Hychangwon (Sept 2024); zero SOFC MW secured in Doosan's 2025 order book", "metric": "Doosan SOFC order volume to date" }, { "detail": "~$1.35m using Ceres's own 2017 $150/kW gross-margin projection; royalty range $0.16m-$3.6m at standard 2-5% royalty rates", "metric": "Gross margin to Ceres from 9MW Doosan order" }, { "detail": "Up more than 200% since July 2025", "metric": "Ceres share price move since Doosan mass-production announcement" }, { "detail": "107MW won in 2025 is effectively 100% legacy PAFC, with SOFC playing no commercial role", "metric": "Doosan 2025 order intake mix" }, { "detail": "19.50% — Weichai dismissed the new manufacturing license as 'routine business' not material enough to disclose in Hong Kong", "metric": "Weichai shareholding in Ceres" }, { "detail": "~18% — Bosch terminated the partnership in early 2025 citing slower-than-expected market adoption", "metric": "Bosch stake in Ceres" }, { "detail": "$1 billion per year across residential, data centre, commercial and APU/range-extender applications — never materialized", "metric": "Ceres 2017 projected global annual gross margin opportunity" } ], "closingAsk": "Investors would be wise to approach Ceres with caution, prioritizing substance over spectacle.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:18:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 162.61037, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "The 9MW Doosan order implies only ~$1.35m in gross margin for Ceres under the company's own 2017 best-case assumptions; a re-rating to actual earnings power should wipe out the hundreds of millions of GBP added to market cap on partnership hype.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "other" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Doosan's 'mass production' yields only a 9MW related-party order worth ~$1.35m in gross margin for Ceres", "A decade of hyped partnerships (Bosch, Nissan, Honda, Cummins, KD Navien) all quietly failed with no commercial product", "Licensing model shifts all R&D, capital and execution risk to partners — a structure that has never produced royalties" ], "scqaSituation": "Ceres Power is a UK developer of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and electrolyzer (SOEC) technology that operates an asset-light licensing model, relying on global partners like Bosch, Weichai and Doosan to industrialize and commercialize its stacks.", "thesisSummary": "Grizzly Research argues Ceres Power is a fundamentally flawed UK SOFC/SOEC licensor whose market cap has been inflated by a decade-long string of high-profile partnership announcements that never translated into material revenue. Past deals with Bosch, Nissan, Honda, Cummins, and KD Navien all evaporated. The July 2025 Doosan 'mass production' milestone that sent the stock up over 200% has yielded only a single 9MW related-party order from Hychangwon — worth roughly $1.35 million in gross margin to Ceres — with no new orders expected for 2025 or 2026. The recent Weichai manufacturing license was dismissed by Weichai itself as 'routine business' not material enough to warrant a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement. The licensing model shifts R&D, capital and execution risk entirely to licensees, guaranteeing delay and attrition. Grizzly concludes Ceres's hundreds-of-millions-GBP market cap will evaporate into minuscule earnings as the stock fades into obscurity.", "primaryDemands": [], "scqaResolution": "Grizzly is publicly short and urges professional investors to disregard Ceres's partnership announcements and revenue projections, interpret the Weichai license as 'routine business', and reassess the stock on the basis of near-zero royalty economics.", "thesisOneLiner": "Ceres Power's decade of hyped SOFC partnerships (Bosch, Nissan, Honda, Doosan) has produced only negligible royalties; the market-cap surge from partnership announcements will fade as revenue reality emerges.", "precedentsCited": [], "scqaComplication": "Over a decade of heavily-promoted partnerships have repeatedly collapsed; Bosch exited in 2025, the China JV with Weichai failed, and Doosan's first 'mass production' milestone has produced just one 9MW related-party order with no new volume in sight.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 8, 11, 25 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [], "valuationFrameworks": [ "other" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "This is a classic short-seller 'thesis' slide, framing the company as a 'villain' with a flawed business model.", "function": "summarize", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/wDlA8SdmQz1lLDkxhlKpkuSAbWiNerBpSdkO84j1iio/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy84NjhlMTJhODhjOGMvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 92, "componentCount": 12, "textChars": 3114, "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "This is a classic short-seller 'thesis' slide, framing the company as a 'villain' with a flawed business model.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list", "logo_grid", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "seconds": 5.216, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe the company is hiding a flawed business model with abysmally small revenue potential behind a façade of big-name announcements and lofty projections.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:32:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a675-f230bb1c2221", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.835 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "THE REPORT AND ALL STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE THE OPINIONS OF GRIZZLY RESEARCH...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3726a944-baf7-40b4-a126-65e5ab61ed65", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.575 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Ceres recently signed a new manufacturing agreement with WeiChai, which holds 19.50% of Ceres’ shares. It is one among multiple JVs, agreements and products that WeiChai and Ceres developed together and failed. WeiChai even deemed the announcement as “routine business”, not material enough to warrant an announcement on the Hong Kong stock exchange.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "256fa31a-2e18-42e3-97ba-5a873c5c78db", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.755 }, "kind": "list", "text": "In conclusion we believe that Ceres is a flawed business model as a public company. The announcements that catapulted Ceres’ market cap by hundreds of millions GBP will likely turn out to yield only minuscule earnings as the stock fades away into obscurity.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d4afaf4-6070-4544-8720-9974c78ee3c5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.655 }, "kind": "list", "text": "A core issue in Ceres’ business model is that it shifts all product R&D, industrialization, and capital requirements onto partners, a strategy that has failed for over a decade. This sits alongside other flaws, including the technology’s reliability, maintenance and serviceability challenges, limited market size, and total dependence on licensees. Ceres has never generated material royalty revenue and, in our view, will not do so in the foreseeable future. The business survives on one-off licensing and engineering fees.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5f513254-b444-4577-b555-99dc3b14ff7f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.356 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Based on our expert interviews as well as the company’s own past commentary, we found that revenue potential is only a fraction of what investors believe.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6c55969a-efef-4b9d-8404-b44b5974479b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.475 }, "kind": "list", "text": "More than four months after mass production began, Doosan has a single 9MW order for their SOFC product, and it comes from a related party. According to experts and Ceres’ own marketing materials, we estimate a 9MW order will only generate up to a minuscule $1.35 million in gross margin for Ceres. Doosan stated that they do not expect any new order this year and that results are already falling short of expectations.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "98352fe8-51b6-4402-abc7-f8462c34b4ca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.396 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Earlier this year, Ceres stock price skyrocketed on the announcement that Doosan Fuel Cell finally started mass producing and commercializing their fuel cell stacks and systems using Ceres’ solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology. We found that Doosan is already struggling to find customers for its current 50MW manufacturing capacity.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f01f92ee-e116-4e20-83ca-31e0131245ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.291 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Our research shows that Ceres has a history of ambitious partnerships and unrealistic projections that keeps repeating. Past partnerships with Bosch, Nissan or Honda were loudly announced but failed miserably. Past ambitious revenue projections were also quietly removed from investor presentations.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f1b035ed-7f55-4097-a035-e7b5c3190ef3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.214 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Ceres Power Holdings plc is a UK developer of solid oxide electrolyzer cell (SOEC) and solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology for use in distributed power systems. We believe the company is hiding a flawed business model with abysmally small revenue potential behind a façade of big-name announcements and lofty projections.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9007d612-4b3c-4ede-95ba-da16a7a8b045", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "WeiChai even deemed the announcement as “routine business”, not material enough to warrant an announcement on the Hong Kong stock exchange.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:32:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a675-f42b4686423d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.138 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Ceres Power Fuels Investors’ Illusions With Misleading Promises", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:47.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6f3cafc1-fa7d-4a53-bacf-04475a1037fe", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "abb3bc82-d34e-46da-b95e-83797c993282", "evidence": "The slide frames the company as a deceptive entity with a flawed business model.", "framework": null, "confidence": 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page.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "logo_grid" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "seconds": 8.902, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc/3", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc#slide-3", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "In conclusion we think that Ceres’ licensing business model is deeply flawed. The company essentially shifts all the risk to its licensees while relying entirely on them to commercialize a new product.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:32:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a676-2342dc276225", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.495 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For example, we found evidence that Doosan’s “mass production start” since July 2025 suffers a very slow take-off and interest in SOFC products, as Doosan Fuel Cell only currently secured a 9 MW supply contract with a related-party in September 2024. According to our research, this should at best generate $1.35 million in royalties for Ceres, a small prize for a 10+ year struggle to reach commercialization stage.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "42ffa3f7-3738-4830-a8e3-69aed16739d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.675 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We find since vanished projections from Ceres’ 2022 Annual Report to “reach multi GWs by 2030” ridiculous and frankly, misleading. As far back as 2017, the company touted that possible annual gross margin for Ceres’ licensing model was around $1 billion annually. 8 years later, the company still has not generated any significant royalties.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "57418d65-e24d-45b9-810c-3ee808ef1f14", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.605 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We get a “déjà vu” impression about this situation, as Ceres has announced dozens of partnerships with global companies to commercialize a product with Ceres’ technology. The vast majority of these partnerships vanished without much communication from the company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99f4a307-c87d-447d-b7f7-1e800d4bdabc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.445 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Based on our research, we believe investors are misled by Ceres’ projections given the near-future prospects and the multiple past failures of Ceres partnerships.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a7590f10-ea64-4049-a2b2-8430ef198810", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.264 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Ceres Power Holdings plc is a UK developer of solid oxide electrolyzer cell (SOEC) and solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology for use in distributed power systems. Founded in 2001, it is headquartered in Horsham in the UK.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cfada5e4-0f04-423c-8d2f-5f563899722d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.335 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Ceres Power’s stock price is up more than 200% since their partner Doosan Fuel Cell announced the start of its SOFC systems in their new 50MW factory using Ceres’ technology in July 2025. Since then, Ceres Power only signed a new manufacturing agreement with their long-standing partner and biggest shareholder WeiChai, with whom they failed multiple times to bring joint products to market since 2018.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:51.49+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f55b2d63-4c93-4844-99b1-f31a5ceaa59b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.765 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In conclusion we think that Ceres’ licensing business model is deeply flawed. The company essentially shifts all the risk to its licensees while relying entirely on them to commercialize a new product. 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"paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:46.159+00", "seconds": 3.533, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc/4", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc#slide-4", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Ceres’ royalty outlook from Doosan is objectively weak, and the evidence across disclosures, Korean filings, bid results, and Doosan’s own Q3 investor materials makes this increasingly clear that it will likely continue to stay.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:32:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a676-0c53e37115a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.57, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "THE REPORT AND ALL STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE THE OPINIONS OF GRIZZLY RESEARCH...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of 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This represents a significant milestone for Ceres as this is the first time, after more than a decade of consistent failures, that it finally reaches royalty revenue generation. This comes more than 6 years after Doosan and Ceres signed a collaboration and licensing agreement to develop SOFC power systems. The capacity of Doosan's new manufacturing facility is 50MW. However, our research shows that 4 months following that announcement that sent Ceres' stock price through the roof, Doosan only received a 9MW order from a related-party in September 2024. Worse yet, in their Q3 2025 presentation, Doosan clearly shows that it is not expecting any additional order for 2025, and that the volume of SOFC product sold should also remain similar in 2026, with very little traction. 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AS OF THE PUBLICATION DATE OF THIS REPORT, GRIZZLY RESEARCH (POSSIBLY ALONG WITH OR THROUGH OUR MEMBERS, PARTNERS, AFFILIATES, EMPLOYEES, AND/OR CONSULTANTS) ALONG WITH OUR CLIENTS AND/OR INVESTORS HAS A DIRECT OR INDIRECT SHORT POSITION IN THE STOCK (AND/OR OPTIONS, SWAPS, AND OTHER DERIVATIVES RELATED TO ONE OR MORE OF THESE SECURITIES) OF THE COMPANY COVERED HEREIN, AND THEREFORE STANDS TO REALIZE SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN THE EVENT THAT THE PRICE OF CERES’S STOCK DECLINES. THEREFORE, USE GRIZZLY RESEARCH’S RESEARCH AT YOUR OWN RISK. YOU SHOULD DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION WITH RESPECT TO THE SECURITIES COVERED HEREIN. THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE NOR SHOULD THEY BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR ANY RECOMMENDATION OF ANY KIND. FOLLOWING PUBLICATION OF THIS REPORT, WE MAY CONTINUE TRANSACTING IN THE SECURITIES COVERED THEREIN, AND WE MAY BE LONG, SHORT, OR NEUTRAL AT ANY TIME HEREAFTER REGARDLESS OF OUR INITIAL OPINION. © 2025 GRIZZLY RESEARCH LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:49.854+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f6c2f18f-ead1-4a36-8a56-897066f37013", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.215 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Cummins (Data Centers): In September 2016, Ceres partnered with U.S. engine giant Cummins on a project to power data centers with fuel cells. Backed by nearly $5 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy, the collaboration aimed to develop a novel 5 kW solid oxide fuel cell system for high-efficiency, distributed power, to serve as backup or primary power for data centers. Ceres boasted that its “SteelCell” technology could revolutionize data center energy use, potentially cutting overall costs by more than 20% and reducing carbon emissions by roughly 49% if implemented at scale. CEO Phil Caldwell called it “a very exciting opportunity” to work with Cummins and the DOE on this application. Yet despite the fanfare, this partnership delivered nothing beyond a government-funded demonstration. 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In January 2016, Ceres signed a new two-year joint development agreement with Honda R&D Co. to jointly develop solid oxide fuel cell stacks using the “SteelCell” technology. Ceres touted the contract as a “deepening of the relationship” with Honda that even brought in a third-party manufacturer to evaluate future mass production scale-up of the “SteelCell” technology. The idea was that Honda’s continued involvement, building on an initial 2014 collaboration, could eventually lead to mass-produced fuel cell units for Honda’s product lines. At least, that was the hopeful projection. In reality, nothing of the sort materialized. 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AS OF THE PUBLICATION DATE OF THIS REPORT, GRIZZLY RESEARCH (POSSIBLY ALONG WITH OR THROUGH OUR MEMBERS, PARTNERS, AFFILIATES, EMPLOYEES, AND/OR CONSULTANTS) ALONG WITH OUR CLIENTS AND/OR INVESTORS HAS A DIRECT OR INDIRECT SHORT POSITION IN THE STOCK (AND/OR OPTIONS, SWAPS, AND OTHER DERIVATIVES RELATED TO ONE OR MORE OF THESE SECURITIES) OF THE COMPANY COVERED HEREIN, AND THEREFORE STANDS TO REALIZE SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN THE EVENT THAT THE PRICE OF CERES' STOCK DECLINES. THEREFORE, USE GRIZZLY RESEARCH'S RESEARCH AT YOUR OWN RISK. YOU SHOULD DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION WITH RESPECT TO THE SECURITIES COVERED HEREIN. THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE NOR SHOULD THEY BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR ANY RECOMMENDATION OF ANY KIND. FOLLOWING PUBLICATION OF THIS REPORT, WE MAY CONTINUE TRANSACTING IN THE SECURITIES COVERED THEREIN, AND WE MAY BE LONG, SHORT, OR NEUTRAL AT ANY TIME HEREAFTER REGARDLESS OF OUR INITIAL OPINION. © 2025 GRIZZLY RESEARCH LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:07:48.738+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b221d079-999c-476d-867f-3f834b9cf52d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "According to experts and former employees we interviewed, Ceres' business model is fundamentally flawed on numerous fronts. From the beginning, Ceres was described as a “university science project with no target market or commercial application” and also as a “hammer looking for nail”. Ceres has changed their business model entirely multiple times after the past ones failed miserably, lacking demand and feasibility. For example, their early commercial trial at residential CHP almost sent the company to bankruptcy, forcing the company to shift its focus entirely and commercially start from “zero”. Another issue we mentioned earlier in this report and that was pointed out by multiple experts is the licensing business model. According to them, the licensing business model does not match the technology and its market for multiple reasons. The most important one is that the SOFC technology developed by Ceres is an advanced form of technology and therefore highly complex. After shifting the risk to the licensee that has to develop the system around the cells or the stacks, even though Ceres will provide engineering support to the licensee, it still bears an enormous amount of risk. Indeed, even though Ceres also offers system IP, the licensee still has to do the heavy work. The licensee has to outlay the capital necessary for the additional research & development, testing, manufacturing and keeps the risk of the technology not being up to their standard, or the developed product not attaining the sufficient market success. Moreover, the systems built around Ceres’ technology might yield different/inconsistent performance that could disappoint. Everything mentioned here takes years to achieve, delaying royalties paid to Ceres as well as a risk of failure, which happened in most cases. On top of this, if everything successfully happens, the licensee still has to pay royalties to Ceres, which adds significant pressure to their margin and commercial prospects. All of these combined reveal a flawed business model, with heightened risks of delays and failures, as well as increased difficulty in finding new licensees. 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