{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-d0035fa339d8", "slug": "7894b8dace42", "title": "New Age Beverage Corp. (NBEV)", "subtitle": "Grizzly Reports · 2019-06", "author": "Grizzly Reports", "date": "2019-06-27 00:00:00", "pageCount": 29, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "New Age Beverage Corp.", "targetTicker": "NBEV", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-d0035fa339d8", "slug": "7894b8dace42", "title": "New Age Beverage Corp. 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Filename and SCQA dating use 2019. Classic Grizzly template: Word-style prose report with embedded on-the-ground photos of empty/mis-licensed China offices (p.11-13) and SAIC vs SEC revenue-gap argument. Strong SCQA narrative but visual craft is low (body text, few charts). Author is the Grizzly Research firm — no named individual signatory.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$68m per SEC filings vs $33m per SAIC filings (51% inflation)", "metric": "Morinda China revenue (2016)" }, { "detail": "$32m loss from China operations per SAIC", "metric": "Morinda China net loss (2017)" }, { "detail": "36% in 2017, 51% in 2016", "metric": "Morinda China revenue inflation" }, { "detail": "Morinda operates without license in 60% of Chinese provinces it runs in", "metric": "Illegal-province operation share" }, { "detail": "$12m net loss on $52m revenue; negative $21.8m operating cash flow", "metric": "NBEV 2018 net loss" }, { "detail": "NBEV pays 50% of revenue vs ~25% industry standard", "metric": "Marley licensing royalty" }, { "detail": "Brent Willis sold 300,000 shares for $1.6m in April 2019", "metric": "CEO insider sale" }, { "detail": "Share count doubled from 35m to 75m in 2018; $100m ATM could dilute 30-88%", "metric": "Share dilution" }, { "detail": "negative $17.8m", "metric": "Cumulative operating cash flow since 2016 IPO" }, { "detail": "60% from $4.56; intermediate target $2.00", "metric": "Projected downside" } ], "closingAsk": "Short NBEV ahead of an expected collapse toward a $2 intermediate target and likely insolvency as the Morinda fraud becomes evident and equity-raise dilution accelerates.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:27+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 99.99915, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Immediate downside of 60% from $4.56 with an intermediate price target of $2.00; longer-term, Grizzly expects near-total capital loss as equity dilution and insolvency risk compound.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "management_change" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Morinda's 2016 China revenue ($68m SEC) was only $33m in SAIC filings", "Morinda operates illegally in 60% of Chinese provinces without MLM licenses", "CEO Brent Willis has history of failed public companies (XFITB, ECIGQ)" ], "scqaSituation": "New Age Beverage is a serial-acquirer beverage roll-up that closed a $85m merger with Morinda, a multi-level marketing firm selling Tahitian Noni Juice, pitched as a transformational and accretive deal to shareholders.", "thesisSummary": "New Age Beverage (NASDAQ: NBEV) paid $85m for Morinda, a multi-level marketing firm whose Tahitian Noni Juice business is misrepresented to investors. Grizzly's on-the-ground China research shows Morinda's 2016 China revenue was $33m per SAIC filings versus $68m in SEC disclosures (a 51% inflation), and the company operates illegally in 60% of Chinese provinces without required direct-selling licenses — a regime that has already forced peers like NHTC to suspend operations after CCTV expose. Morinda's European HQ was being wound down months before the deal closed, and $50m in contractual obligations owed to Morinda shareholders were undisclosed. CEO Brent Willis, who previously led XFITB and ECIGQ to near-zero, just sold 300,000 shares for $1.6m. Grizzly sees immediate 60% downside, an intermediate $2 target, and potential insolvency.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell NBEV shares ahead of expected collapse", "Scrutinize Morinda's SEC-disclosed China financials against SAIC filings", "Question NBEV's serial equity-funded roll-up strategy under CEO Brent Willis" ], "scqaResolution": "Short NBEV: the Morinda thesis collapses once investors see the SAIC-vs-SEC revenue gap, the missing MLM licenses, the NHTC-style China regulatory risk, and CEO Brent Willis's track record of failed public companies.", "thesisOneLiner": "NBEV overpaid $85m for Morinda, an MLM with inflated China revenues and illegal operations; the stock faces 60% immediate downside and likely insolvency.", "precedentsCited": [ "Natural Health Trends Corp (NHTC) CCTV expose and ~60% share decline", "China MLM crackdowns on Hualin Group, Quanjian Group, Infinitus (China), Tianshi Group", "Brent Willis's prior failures at XFit Brands (XFITB) and Electronic Cigarettes International (ECIGQ)" ], "scqaComplication": "Morinda's SEC-disclosed China revenue is inflated 36-51% versus SAIC filings, it operates illegally in 60% of Chinese provinces amid a nationwide MLM crackdown, and its European operations were already being wound down pre-close.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 11, 13, 22, 23, 28 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Natural Health Trends Corp (NHTC)", "Hualin Group", "Quanjian Group", "Infinitus (China)", "Tianshi Group", "Sprig", "Canopy Growth", "XFit Brands (XFITB)", "Electronic Cigarettes International (ECIGQ)", "Voyageur Minerals" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "other" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'Grizzly Reports' branding, indicating a short-seller research note. 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NBEV Paid Morinda $75 million in cash and $10 million in stock... While Morinda reported 2016 revenue from China of $68m in 2016, SAIC filings show that real revenue of Morinda was only $33m in that year! Financial filings from China also show that Morinda had a big net loss of $32m in 2017 from its China operations. National filings show that Morinda’s European operations gave up their headquarters in 2017 and was in the process of winding down the company. NBEV’s CEO boosts that $46 million in cash came along with Morinda. However, we don’t believe investors clearly understand that over $50 million will have to be paid out to Morinda shareholders. In short, we believe NBEV got duped by buying a dying business with inflated financials. 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NBEV ends up paying 50% of revenue for the licensing deal, yet our research indicates that standard rates for this industry are around 25%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:08:56.745+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99311c80-dade-4912-bf22-81efee0b8ecf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.118 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "support their opinions. Deloitte seems to find itself on the wrong end of many international scandals this year: for example, the Malaysia fine the South China Morning Post reported, and the $8.0 million fine Deloitte had to pay in Brazil.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:08:56.745+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9456c41-c987-418f-9d89-40eed952ffb1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.195 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It is interesting to find big divergences between Chinese and US filings, but this challenge is not new to auditors. 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Through channel checks, we have found that currently the largest, most established US distributor of sparkling CBD beverages (in 16 states), Sprig, is making <$15 million in revenue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:08:57.437+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "28a70c4f-100e-4115-8119-8eb2d1d1175e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.042, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.391 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Even more spectacular was the failure of Electronics Cigarettes International Group, Ltd. (currently ECIGQ). Brent Willis was CEO from 2013 until 2015, and in 2017 the company finally filed for bankruptcy.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:08:57.437+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "36afc057-5c50-4ebf-a573-2e750ec4e385", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.056, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.672 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Insiders have also been selling their shares. Form 4 filings from April 2019 show Brent Willis locked in over $1.6 million by disposing of a 300,000 NBEV shares. This has been the biggest insider sale for years. 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The company more than doubled its share count in 2018 from 35m shares to over currently over 75m shares. 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