{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d", "slug": "dfcef8f28a20", "title": "Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX)", "subtitle": "White Diamond Research · 2019-09", "author": "White Diamond Research", "date": "2019-09-16 00:00:00", "pageCount": 41, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Accelerate Diagnostics", "targetTicker": "AXDX", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d", "slug": "dfcef8f28a20", "title": "Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX)", "rawTitle": "AXDX full report Sep 16 new", "authorId": "61_White_Diamond_Research", "authorName": "White Diamond Research", "authorDisplay": "White Diamond Research", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2019-09-AXDX-full-report-Sep-16-new.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2019-01-01 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2019-09-16 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 23:01:19+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 41, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Accelerate Diagnostics", "targetTicker": "AXDX", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/dfcef8f28a20", "activist_firm": "White Diamond Research", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 113.26379871368408 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 41, "pagesIndexed": 41, "pagesWithImages": 41, "pagesWithMetadata": 41, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 278, "chartCount": 3, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 9, "documentToolMatches": 3, "frameworkMatches": 18, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "ca4ddefa-85d9-4e75-92e0-e1a8dfc42fc6", "evidence": "The document follows a problem-agitate-solution structure, presenting the limitations and drawbacks of the Pheno system (problem), agitating these issues (complication), and implying that the solution (avoiding investment in AXDX) is to be cautious of the system's limitations.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:56.089688+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 9, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 3, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "c35db6aa-1659-4676-9230-380b8888605a", "matchId": "ca4ddefa-85d9-4e75-92e0-e1a8dfc42fc6", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document highlights several issues with the Pheno system, including its narrow coverage of microorganisms and antibiotics, contamination risks, and the over-hyped criticality of AST testing for blood infection.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 15, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 10, "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatId": "fad27230-482c-4ecc-ab6e-29145dc49e07", "matchId": "ca4ddefa-85d9-4e75-92e0-e1a8dfc42fc6", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document further emphasizes the limitations and drawbacks of the Pheno system, including the structure of Pheno lease agreements and the uncertainty of future reagent revenue.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 41, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 30, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "ca57db9c-677e-4ef8-919c-92b1690ee48e", "matchId": "ca4ddefa-85d9-4e75-92e0-e1a8dfc42fc6", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document implies that the solution is to be cautious of the system's limitations and avoid investment in AXDX, citing a potential decline in AXDX shares.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 5, "loop": { "name": "06_zoom_in", "slug": "06-zoom-in", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6846-74db-82be-dff5b058b072", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication", "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Analysis", "categorySlug": "analysis" }, "matchId": "4b8bad5d-bf36-4c0a-9c1e-2294d891556c", "evidence": "The document zooms in on several specific limitations of the Pheno system, including its narrow coverage of microorganisms and antibiotics.", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the limitations of the Pheno system?", "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:56.244754+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 35, "from": 31, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "c590c16d-0680-4cc5-a734-8a884e9eff8b", "evidence": "The document implies that the cost of inaction is the potential decline in AXDX shares and the unjustifiable premium vs its close comparator, T2 Biosystems.", "position": 1, "objective": "What is the cost of inaction regarding AXDX's Pheno system?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:56.282694+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 40, "from": 36, "loop": { "name": "41_so_what_cascade", "slug": "41-so-what-cascade", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Data presentations, executive summaries, driving to recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-769f-7208-afbc-f28985c6f4fb", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Data -> So What? 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The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "006235c1-1de5-46a5-be1b-cc7df4ac0af9", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Before-After-Bridge", "slug": "before-after-bridge", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-8604-7188-883f-42370288ad05", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Narrative structure: Paint the before, show the after, explain the bridge", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "2fb4168b-4c94-44b8-89f6-6362546168d7", "evidence": "So, how different would the standard-of-care result have been if a comparator arm released identification and AST results 24 hours per day (automated system) and used MALDI-TOF immediately?", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:28:55.557846+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "2x2 matrix", "slug": "matrix-2x2", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-50ab-72d1-8afb-3ab0a38e32a8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "BCG matrix, importance/urgency, any axes-and-quadrants frame.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "c5105861-4f53-4aa6-9ebc-dd1c3e3829a0", "evidence": "comparison table of hours for Culture Positivity, ID, AST, and Total time", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:52.636341+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? What do they know? What do they believe? What do they care about? What do they fear? What decisions can they make?", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "675405bf-20b2-4a2d-a029-6f70fab73179", "evidence": "analyst reports as shown below. These analysts are JP Morgan, Piper Jaffray, Craig Hallum, and BT", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:52.715532+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "3b663e1b-a963-411e-8271-053b1ba288b9", "evidence": "sell-side analysts in their respective analyst reports as shown below", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:52.753236+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Table data", "slug": "table-data", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4fab-7168-a82f-b847350a006d", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Tabular layouts of structured data.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "c0b858a5-4426-405c-8c48-8bd0f88e0d4f", "evidence": "Instrument revenue, % of total revenue table", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:52.830666+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 17, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Storytelling: audience calibration", "slug": "audience", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-23ea-723a-87c0-af1d78d702d2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-23c5-72ec-8b94-78fc1da7b656", "description": "The same thesis, written for four different audiences, produces four", "familyLabel": "narrative-block", "categoryName": "Narrative & Transformation", "categorySlug": "narrative-transformation" }, "agent": "storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "storyteller" ], "matchId": "eebd4cdd-0b14-4954-a5ea-0faff5fdf545", "evidence": "The slide mentions 'most sell side analysts have given up on Accelerate', indicating an understanding of the audience's perspective.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:34.799404+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 40, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "670fa5a8-71f1-492d-a2ef-70a7dc302366", "evidence": "Contrasting company claims with independent research findings to expose potential misrepresentation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "9c9c96b1-2d38-455e-822c-8599b2a4dd32", "evidence": "The slide frames the Pheno system as a high-cost, potentially unnecessary competitor to the industry-standard MALDI.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.909+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, 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White Diamond is the firm credit; no individual author named on cover. Strong SCQA: opens with 5 bullet takeaways and $6 price target on page 1, closes with $200M-$300M fair value on page 41. Heavy use of CEO-quote contradictions (Mehren Q1 18 vs Q2 19 on reagent revenue and Mayo-UCLA expectations) and primary-source reseller interviews at ECCMID 2019. Peer benchmarking vs MALDI+BD Phoenix is a clean before/after timeline visual. No stake disclosure — short-seller report.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$6 target implies ~70% downside from ~$20", "metric": "Price target vs. current" }, { "detail": "Guidance cut from $60K-$80K (Q2 18) to $45K-$65K (Q2 19)", "metric": "Reagent revenue per system" }, { "detail": "Fails in 26.8% of runs (technical issues, indeterminate results, off-panel organisms)", "metric": "PhenoTest failure rate" }, { "detail": "58.1% — 'a bit better than a flip of a coin'", "metric": "PhenoTest definitive correct result rate" }, { "detail": "~40% faster (16h saved), not 75% as AXDX claims", "metric": "Time advantage vs MALDI+BD Phoenix" }, { "detail": "Only 16 organisms and 20 drugs FDA-cleared", "metric": "Organism/antibiotic coverage" }, { "detail": "-$20.8M Q2 19 vs -$21.5M Q1 19; cash runway ~6 quarters", "metric": "Quarterly net loss" }, { "detail": "2018 = $5.6M; Q1 & Q2 2019 = $1.8M each", "metric": "Annual revenue" }, { "detail": "$125M debt vs $137.8M cash", "metric": "Debt" }, { "detail": "$200M-$300M vs ~$1B current market cap", "metric": "Fair market value" } ], "closingAsk": "Short AXDX — shares are overpriced and we expect a 70% decline over the next 6-9 months to a fair value of $200M-$300M.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:01:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 113.2638, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Fair value is $200M-$300M, implying a $6 price target and roughly 70% downside over the next 6-9 months as reagent revenues, cash burn, and clinical data disappoint.", "thesisTypes": [ "undervaluation", "management_change", "operational_turnaround" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Pheno system is a niche adjunct, not a replacement for cell-culture tests", "Reagent revenue per system missed management's target by over 30%", "Mayo-UCLA study will not show improvement in length-of-stay or mortality" ], "scqaSituation": "Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX) is a one-product rapid-sepsis diagnostic company whose Pheno system is priced at a ~$1B market cap after a 70%+ YTD rally, with investors betting on standard-of-care adoption.", "thesisSummary": "White Diamond argues Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX), priced at ~$1B market cap after a 70% YTD rally, is a one-product company whose PhenoTest is a niche adjunct rather than a replacement for standard cell-culture diagnostics. Proprietary reseller interviews at ECCMID 2019 (BioMerieux, ThermoFisher, Beckman Coulter) and peer-reviewed literature show the Pheno fails in ~27% of runs, covers only 16 organisms, and delivers a ~40% (not 75%) time advantage over MALDI+BD Phoenix. Management has quietly walked back reagent-revenue-per-system guidance from $60K-$80K to $45K-$65K and lengthened the install lag from 3-4 to 4-9 months. With the Mayo-UCLA study likely failing to show LOS or mortality improvement, $20M quarterly losses, a cash runway of six quarters, and a new COO (Jack Phillips) likely replacing CEO Larry Mehren, fair value is $200M-$300M — a $6 price target and 70% downside.", "primaryDemands": [ "Short AXDX with a $6 price target (~70% downside)", "Fair market value should be $200M-$300M, not ~$1B" ], "scqaResolution": "Short AXDX ahead of the October Mayo-UCLA readout — which will fail to show length-of-stay or mortality improvement — and a likely CEO change and guidance reset.", "thesisOneLiner": "AXDX is a one-product company whose Pheno system is a flawed niche diagnostic — missed reagent targets, a looming Mayo-UCLA study failure, and cash burn point to 70% downside to a $6 price target.", "precedentsCited": [ "BioFire Mayo group study (underpowered, failed primary endpoint)", "Jack Schuler's prior 10% stakes (YTEN, CAPN, VRML, BIOL, NEOS — mostly negative 5-yr returns)" ], "scqaComplication": "The Pheno is a narrow adjunct that fails in 27% of runs, covers only 16 organisms, and missed reagent-revenue-per-system targets by 30%; management has already walked back guidance twice.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 15, 17, 18, 41 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "BioMerieux (Vitek)", "ThermoFisher", "Beckman Coulter", "Luminex", "bioMerieux MALDI+BD Phoenix", "T2 Biosystems (TTOO)" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison", "other" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "tension", "title": "This is a short-seller research note cover page.", "function": "frame_problem", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/DFuVZGyK1W18s90oPFDIPCiJJU6Gkuof2tCrP2Amm54/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9kZmNlZjhmMjhhMjAvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "thesis_headline", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "thesis_headline", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Thesis headline", "slug": "thesis_headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-073a-70cb-b9f6-772a597bb5af", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "frame_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Frame problem", "slug": "frame_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-13db-753e-ad70-e9b2d0dab398", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 71, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2097, "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "This is a short-seller research note cover page.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:13.387+00", "seconds": 3.483, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "White Diamond’s New Findings will prove why AXDX’s Pheno system is unlikely to realize the revenue the street is expecting. The issues we have found have been missed by most.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b39f-caa15f68f685", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "image", "text": "White Diamond Research logo", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:13.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c79dddc7-ce5c-4941-bcca-021e952d74d6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "list", "text": "White Diamond's proprietary diligence identified new info that suggests Accelerate Diagnostic's (AXDX) Pheno system is only a niche product. The Pheno system is not capable of replacing tissue culture methods due to design flaws and a questionable value proposition. Management has missed its reagent revenues per system target by over 30% and no one is talking about it. Pheno system lease agreements do not penalize hospitals for low test volumes, which hurts annuity revenues and AXDX eats the cost for upfront installation and validation. Highly anticipated results of the upcoming Mayo/UCLA study will likely be a bust, revealing no statistically significant improvement in LOS (Length of Stay) or patient mortality.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:13.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e7319e32-db70-40c9-8bbd-d989a3ae02de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "price target: $6", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b39f-cd5dc03fc925", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX) is a rapid diagnostic company that relies on one product, the Pheno system, utilizing PhenoTest diagnostic panels. The stock has been up over 70% in the year which we believe has created a very juicy shorting opportunity. What amazes us is that despite the continuous rise in stock price, the company has continued to miss earnings and other important metrics over the past year. We then dug deeper to figure out the fundamentals of the company and quickly realized that AXDX is selling a flawed product that is disputed by many stakeholders/professionals in the industry, and that their recent change in business model from a capital sale to a rental model will not save them from their fundamental issues: slow traction, sales and adoption rates. This information has not been realized by the market yet.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:13.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fde8499b-6251-40c1-83f3-7b865ad7e26e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.35, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Copyright 2019 White Diamond Research research@whitediamondresearch.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We are on our way.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df0e45fd-6429-43ba-a8ad-759afc7b7ec6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.371 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In this report we present a compelling argument both from our research and from published literature that Pheno system will not become the standard of care and will not replace the standard cell culture methods, despite Mehren’s claim.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f5acc6e8-5fb8-49f1-a62f-baeba87550ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Thanks to our Board, who knows that we will be the standard of care and to our patient shareholders, thank you. 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Blood stream infection is a very limited market. We work on everything, urine samples, for example. 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The Accelerate Pheno system provided a definitive and correct result for 173 runs (58.1%).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:16.499+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d0ced36-ed63-40d1-b501-d1fc9af8b846", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "There were 298 blood cultures included in the study, and the Accelerate Pheno system provided a definitive identification result in 218 instances (73.2%). 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This is a significant limitation, because of two reasons:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.307+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1d663f9e-6806-42ad-bdea-6f60b2f2712a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The AXDX rep confirms above that the Pheno system doesn't replace cell culture, thus it is an adjunct to standard of care, not a replacement.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.307+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "34762fb3-59ce-4a8b-9a6e-a005ef3e0dbd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A. 15% is about accurate. Our panel covers about 85% of organisms. Our panel does not cover 100% of bug/antibiotic combinations, so you still need cell culture. It is not easy to cover 100%, because we use FISH probes and they may not be available for some bugs. Because of the FISH method we are somewhat limited.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.307+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aae670e6-0652-42b3-9341-50ff5999e868", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "major limitation is that it does not cover all the pathogens that may be responsible for sepsis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.307+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b8058a10-911d-48ed-948e-74fefbe12a78", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Q. In your German study reported here, in 15% of cases the PhenoTest panel was either not broad enough or the number of cells were insufficient. How are you planning to address this limitation of your test system?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.307+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c85c93eb-02d7-42c7-aecb-539b9c7afc59", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At ECCMID 2019 we interviewed an AXDX rep to better understand the reasons for a narrow coverage of their test. It appears that it is linked to a fundamental limitation of the FISH method, used in Pheno system for ID testing.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.307+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eb85920d-3086-4cc7-b2ec-df28f43e26e4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "A. 15% is about accurate. Our panel covers about 85% of organisms. Our panel does not cover 100% of bug/antibiotic combinations, so you still need cell culture. It is not easy to cover 100%, because we use FISH probes and they may not be available for some bugs. 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The question therefore arises which sample to test with the Pheno system, if, for example, two or more samples from the same patient turns positive?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.156+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f3c12cf-30c3-4ca2-b98b-f9c19338bf9f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "* from Blood Culture guide : In order to distinguish between contamination and true bacteremia, a total of three to five blood culture sets should be sufficient.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.156+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "536cbe2a-4482-4409-8dc7-b676580f4a73", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When we attended the ECCMID 2019, we noted that many startups are leapfrogging AXDX by designing their system to be capable of analyzing multiple samples. Here is an excerpt from our conversation with a QuantaMatrix rep: Q. How is your product different from the Pheno system? A. Similar technology, also phenotype. Major differentiation is capacity, drastic difference is that we have positions for 12 blood samples, continuous loading. 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A customer may acquire additional testing modules if one is not enough. But it is not clear if a modular design truly saves space and money to its customers. ADXD specifies that a one module system takes 3 ft of bench space, while a four module system takes 7 ft of bench space, which is a lot! As one can see from the picture below, modules are bulky. The only part, which is shared, is a Touch Screen and a Computer, both of which are commodity items. 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We have a small system you can run up to 12 samples from one screen controller. It is important to have a smaller, cheaper system that can run multiple samples for a hospital or a lab to adopt the product.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0fc58372-f2c3-499e-9083-b93c1e3302af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PhenoTest is very expensive, because it measures both ID (identification of micro-organism type) and AST (Antibiotic Susceptibility Test). Today, another rapid ID", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1cae2a52-83d3-4c67-8680-9494ddbad822", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We would like to summarize our observations with the supporting quote about limitation of Pheno system from the peer-reviewed article", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2650fb8e-e120-45ac-b649-99a23ab6508e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "From our conversation with an Avails Medical rep: New systems that are coming out will be lower cost, and they will also test more than one sample at a time. Accelerate has a module that can do one sample at a time and you need 7 hours to process the sample, so all other samples will wait till this is done. What do you do? You need to buy the second system to truly incorporate it into rapid AST testing. It is modular with Accelerate, but then you pay a multiple.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4cf35a6f-3ec0-43d3-9ca3-0558e151d41a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Other considerations for clinical microbiology laboratories are cost (of both the instrument and individual kits), laboratory space, workflow in the laboratory (only one sample per unit at a given time, although the system can accommodate up to 4 modules), storage space for the large single-use kits, and waste disposal of the kits.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a62b8f4a-416b-4d39-b015-5c3818ba9ca3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "gram-positive and gram-negative sections. We have 15 position panels for antibiotic screening. Accelerate has just one sample analyzed at a time.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e4ae78d9-3371-4fb7-a1a7-e53d51a47f9e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "New systems that are coming out will be lower cost, and they will also test more than one sample at a time. Accelerate has a module that can do one sample at a time and you need 7 hours to process the sample, so all other samples will wait till this is done. What do you do? You need to buy the second system to truly incorporate it into rapid AST testing. It is modular with Accelerate, but then you pay a multiple. — Avails Medical rep", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b3a0-10c4d928be70", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Pheno system is wasting hospital money on ID testing, which can be done cheap and fast by MALDI", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.677+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "19efde15-1b32-4241-99ca-212ba3361811", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 9, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 3, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "c35db6aa-1659-4676-9230-380b8888605a", "matchId": "ca4ddefa-85d9-4e75-92e0-e1a8dfc42fc6", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document highlights several issues with the Pheno system, including its narrow coverage of microorganisms and antibiotics, contamination risks, and the over-hyped criticality of AST testing for blood infection.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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How are you different from Pheno system? A. We have a similar approach. We have taken away ID, because many labs in Europe have already invested in MALDI and that solution is good. 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We are not sure how much more expense ID testing adds to PhenoTest, but the other companies, developing new rapid AST test, are concerned about cost reduction and are not including ID in their design.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.909+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "34094919-4372-4691-b9b7-64133cefb57f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "diagnostic test, called MALDI, is broadly advancing into labs in the US and internationally. At ECCMID 2019, the companies developing next generation of rapid AST testing, told us that MALDI is the new standard for the rapid ID and it does it much cheaper, than Pheno system. 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Here is his view on the problem:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:14.909+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "81b46322-c2b6-457b-859b-ab9ee22930fd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We have a similar approach. We have taken away ID, because many labs in Europe have already invested in MALDI and that solution is good. 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From analyzing the influential Surviving Sepsis Campaign, the most critical aspect of sepsis management is to treat it as a medical emergency and perform a bundle of specific actions within the first hour of sepsis signs, which are:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.178+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "867b43c9-eb7d-4d04-99f3-b27d4997b637", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "information help you to change the patient infection management whether you know or do not know what pathogen it is? Then the answer is it’s a very small percentage, because in most cases, if patients are sick enough, they will be placed on board spectrum antibiotics. So data rarely changes the management.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:15.178+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "94ccdc3c-dc98-4fb9-b656-9b2e4e752eb5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The IDSA (Infection Diseases Society of America) Guide for utilization of the Microbiology Lab does not provide any recommendation on using rapid diagnostics. 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A: If they are doing a strict reagent rental process, then I would say the answer is no.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.044+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "397a75ca-1927-4efc-b56a-853723c39a3a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Q: Can the hospital cancel their agreement after installation and is there a penalty? A: I don't think there is a cancellation penalty. In some cases they may just give back the device.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.044+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95e7b961-d506-4836-b7ec-f3d915baa589", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Q: How often does hospital validation and verification of the Pheno system fail? A: That's a great question. There was a time that I would say with certainty that the answer was no, we have not yet failed a validation. Now, I think the number of times that we lose, you can count on one hand.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.044+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "caa81ce2-f92f-44b2-a97e-45e7cc193ce2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "a lab director is committing to something that they will never use. It really does need to be a good representation of what their volume will be.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.044+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "abda5047-80e8-4756-8907-f795c7789db7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We learned from this call that the AXDX reagent rental agreement is structured to give hospitals a lot of freedom. The contract does not specify a minimum number of tests and does not have a cancellation fee to cover AXDX's upfront expenses. It is up to the hospital", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.044+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c95c95c4-532d-419a-b8f2-43c8979349c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I don't think there is a cancellation penalty. In some cases they may just give back the device. — Unnamed Speaker", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:30+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b3a1-62248f85438b", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 25, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a bearish investment research tone, highlighting risks to the company's business model and clinical validation.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 69, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2380, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a bearish investment research tone, highlighting risks to the company's business model and clinical validation.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "headline_text", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.201+00", "seconds": 4.199, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d/25", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d#slide-25", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "It seems to us that the lease model may quickly become a huge liability if one of the following occurs: (i) AXDX depletes its cash reserve; (ii) negative clinical data about the Pheno system are published; (iii) a new strong competitor comes in a picture; (iv) hospitals will underutilize installed Pheno systems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:30+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b3a1-9878da9bd7a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AXDX is investing significant money into its lease model by covering the cost of leased Pheno systems, free diagnostic kits for hospital validation studies and training/support of hospital lab personnel during instrument installation. Yet, there is very little guarantee that the future reagent revenues will pay back for these initial expenses. It seems to us that the lease model may quickly become a huge liability if one of the following occurs: (i) AXDX depletes its cash reserve; (ii) negative clinical data about the Pheno system are published; (iii) a new strong competitor comes in a picture; (iv) hospitals will underutilize installed Pheno systems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.201+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "037c4c7e-022f-4f2c-90f0-9b1d51f7dd2a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We agree with Mehren's above statement, but we don't expect the Mayo-UCLA study to show a significant improvement in LOS or morbidity.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.201+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "575ccf4d-fb96-4b63-a33f-369cbcb32ae3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Investors eagerly wait for results of the Mayo-UCLA study to be revealed in October during IDWeek. If successful, this study may improve Pheno system adoption. Length Of Stay (LOS) improvements at the hospital is the most important factor for Pheno system adoption. In the Q119 earnings call, Mehren stated:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.201+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "63facd8b-971f-4eb3-941f-6fd48432e928", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "to decide on the target test volume later on after the internal validation phase. The hospital can return the Pheno system to AXDX any time with no penalties. Finally, AXDX doesn't make any revenue from validation studies, while providing free reagent kits for hospital.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.201+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9b8daf67-1bc3-487f-a86e-6831396ba5c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"You will recall that length of stay is among the most important return on investment considerations for hospital administrators as it represents an opportunity to reduce non-reimbursed costs, while also freeing up beds more quickly for the next reimbursed patients.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.201+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "762c6e86-e291-4e1d-ab12-ed5bb2975725", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"You will recall that length of stay is among the most important return on investment considerations for hospital administrators as it represents an opportunity to reduce non-reimbursed costs, while also freeing up beds more quickly for the next reimbursed patients.\" — Mehren (Q119 earnings call)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:30+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null 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Patient follow-up, per study protocol, is 30 days or shorter, meaning that all results should have been available by January 30, 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:21.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46a3857f-e7a3-4dfc-881a-68ec1e64ccb9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Management claims it does not know the study results, but we think that is highly improbable. Trustful relations and communications exist between company reps and clinicians at medical device study sites and the results have been likely known to AXDX immediately after the conclusion of the study, somewhere in February of 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:21.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9e044a77-d275-41dc-bad3-32f1ae6dd3ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Nothing happened in the first half of this year. Nothing was presented at the ECCMID Congress in April 2019. Why was it decided to delay the data reporting until October? If the study showed a reduction in the mortality rate, would it be ethical waiting almost a year to reveal the study results? We don't think it would be. 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If so, what took Mayo 6 months to commit to a lease? Doesn't it make as much sense to assume that since it took AXDX management a full 6 months to convince Mayo to accept a low commitment lease, perhaps the clinical results weren't so good?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:21.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dc1b64c5-8cca-4de0-a749-976c11ddc11b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "While we do not control the pace or the timing of the Mayo UCLA study, we anticipate that the results will read out in the first half of this year", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:21.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "881b4c58-3763-464e-8ec9-da9e58c7be0a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "While we do not control the pace or the timing of the Mayo UCLA study, we 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The studies endpoints include time to effective therapy, clinical improvement and cost.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.292+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d9b9aff-c9cc-4e92-847a-c25cbb5c6ae0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.765 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I guess, I'll start off with the Mayo-UCLA trials coming up here in a couple of months. I believe a lot of investors' eyes are watching that now. .... should we expect to see a length of", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.292+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "48b3ee58-69c3-43e2-afa7-b5fe80b1226e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.165, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.272 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "In late 2017 two institutions, the Mayo Clinic, Rochester and UCLA, secured IRB approval to conduct a randomized clinical trial investigating the efficacy and associate health economic outcomes of Pheno.... Regardless, the study is nearing completion, and we expect enrollment to finish in Q3 with early data soon after. If this study concludes as we hope it will demonstrate the improved outcome for these critically ill patients with positive impact on mortality and morbidity length of stay stewardship and cost. We can't wait.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:22.292+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5d472eb6-0707-4096-9bd7-211bdcce7cd2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "In late 2017 two institutions, the Mayo Clinic, Rochester and UCLA, secured IRB approval to conduct a randomized clinical trial investigating the efficacy and associate health economic outcomes of Pheno.... 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And the metric that the study was powered to prove was time to optimal therapy. We do not know what the other endpoints will end up being, but we do know that they’re not powered to statistically show a difference.'", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.591+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "abcdc9bd-853a-4718-9491-21513cc1686b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.284 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We found the above comment very telling. The analyst is probing on whether critical outcomes from the study, LOS and mortality rate will show a difference as opposed to a much less meaningful surrogate outcome of 'time to optimal therapy'.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.591+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fe0f73b5-fc95-4278-97ee-89ea7da6239f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“You’re welcome. 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Per study design, all positive blood cultures should have been sent both to traditional cell culture testing and to the Pheno system. The clinical study was met with a low compliance from ICU physicians and only 50% of positive blood cultures were sent to the Pheno system at week 6 after the start of the study (see the slide below). After additional efforts from Principal Investigators, the clinician's compliance, as shown in the slide by a green bar, eventually reached 80.3% at 6 months, which is still a low number for a controlled environment of a clinical study. 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We observed evidence of low interest of hospitals in PhenoTests during clinical studies in EU.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.152+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "05a97d52-1439-451a-b4bb-cf220c68814f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As Mehren states above, AXDX didn't close several deals in Germany. Mehren has an excuse for why the deal didn't go through, but the fact remains that they didn't close the deal. We found it intriguing that despite growing concerns in Europe about antibiotic resistance, the Pheno system, which supposedly is designed to quickly and effectively de-escalate antibiotic regiment with its anti-bacterial susceptibility test is such a hard sell in the EU.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.152+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "567c73cc-3a04-46b7-8e94-c610a05d2967", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our results for the quarter were mixed. Our 55 net new placements were up over 90% year-over-year, but came in below our expectations .... The miss was largely EMEA. And we had turnover in Germany where we had planned on several capital deals and then a large distributor deal that, while we could have closed that sooner, we held out for better pricing.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.152+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fcf52371-e99b-4a20-8ac1-b51ae2d4b762", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Our results for the quarter were mixed. Our 55 net new placements were up over 90% year-over-year, but came in below our expectations .... The miss was largely EMEA. And we had turnover in Germany where we had planned on several capital deals and then a large distributor deal that, while we could have closed that sooner, we held out for better pricing. — Mehren", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:34:31+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b3a2-4b6b1d5efc54", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.35, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Copyright 2019 White Diamond Research research@whitediamondresearch.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The only sell-side analyst bull right now is Piper Jaffray, and even they only have a $19 PT on AXDX after the Q219 results. See the above survey outcome quote here on page 32, as well as the other sell-side reports.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.651+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1a61a033-86b4-43aa-9ee5-b3d02de3d784", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "channel check: reach out to the labs who know Pheno the best and see if they adopted Pheno following the launch of the reagent rental model. This includes labs who participated in AXDX' clinical studies. Our results were surprising...out of 15 centers with experience using Pheno, only 5 have plans to implement the system: 2 actively use it today, 2 are implementing 1H19 and 1 will “probably adopt.” Among the labs not implementing Pheno (10 labs), 7 cited test cost. Other responses included lack of evidence to justify adoption, physical size of the cartridge creating capacity/logistics issues, software glitches and one lab referenced false positives and negatives as well as inconsistency with streptococcus testing.... Our concern is: if those who know Pheno the best (those who used the system previously) are not buying Pheno, then who is?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:18.651+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "af146f99-4a6f-4e76-b840-eb8988e54f01", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AXDX charges $ 50,000 for its Pheno system and about $200 per PhenoTest panels (list price is $250). Currently, there is no additional reimbursement for PhenoTests and the hospital pays from the total DRG sum, meaning that an extra payment to AXDX come out of the hospital’s pocket. Other rapid diagnostic companies, such as TTOO, received special add-on NTAP reimbursement, which covered 65% of the diagnostic kit cost. Given lackluster AXDX revenues, anyone would assume that NTAP reimbursement would provide a nice tailwind. Yet, it appears that AXDX management procrastinated on the NTAP application. 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Phillips was President and CEO of Roche Diagnostics, North America. This makes the story interesting, because Larry Mehren served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Ventana Medical Systems, Inc. from 2007 until 2008, and directly reported to Phillips.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.917+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2fc600a0-564f-488b-bb65-c7607da979b8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Jack Schuler, AXDX’s largest shareholder and a Director, was the Chairman of the Board of Ventana. 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Of course, it’s mostly not his fault, the Pheno system is a tough sell. From evidence we’ve seen, we speculate that AXDX is on track to replace him.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.917+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f70eefe3-20f8-4408-9295-a8563651aeb1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "title", "text": "$20 Million In Quarterly Losses Is Significant, Especially As Cash Runs Out", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.917+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "014577de-0548-4a42-b167-c20955e686d0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Accelerate’s New Executive Hire May Indicate A Coming Change In AXDX Strategy And the Downgrade Revision Of Its Market Guidance", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.917+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ddf3b0c1-da69-46e5-bb65-06aacdcb39d6", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d3e8c766-72db-4c5b-9fc3-99808fa1f6f2", "evidence": "Analysis of executive hierarchy and board influence", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:19.917+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 39, "frameworkName": "governance" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 41, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 30, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "ca57db9c-677e-4ef8-919c-92b1690ee48e", "matchId": "ca4ddefa-85d9-4e75-92e0-e1a8dfc42fc6", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document implies that the solution is to be cautious of the system's limitations and avoid investment in AXDX, citing a potential decline in AXDX shares.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. 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The analyst said Q318 didn't bring what he was hoping for given \"another miss and pipeline delay\". On 8/8/19, after the Q219 earnings report BTIG analyst Sean Lavin issued a report maintaining a hold rating on AXDX. 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Clearly this level of net loss and cash burn are not sustainable for long. Right now, shareholders don't seem too concerned while the company has a considerable cash balance. AXDX reported $137.8M in cash for Q219. However, the company is also sitting on $125M in debt. 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AXDX has yet to earn over $2M in revenues for a quarter. We expect revenue to increase by many multiples into the next couple of quarters as hospitals are up and running with the Pheno systems placed in Q418. 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However, after Q219 results, Piper William Quirk lowered his price target to $19 from $22. Quirk estimated that 88 instruments would be placed in Q219, but it was only 55. 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