{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-97be8c491a06", "slug": "f6c49e173cdf", "title": "Mercury General Corporation (MCY)", "subtitle": "Wolfpack Research · 2025-01", "author": "Wolfpack Research", "date": "2025-01-29 00:00:00", "pageCount": 18, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Mercury General Corporation", "targetTicker": "MCY", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-97be8c491a06", "slug": "f6c49e173cdf", "title": "Mercury General Corporation (MCY)", "rawTitle": "b084d8 d2e3f39b646c430b95b80b7f2a0f3ea2", "authorId": "60_Wolfpack_Research", "authorName": "Wolfpack Research", "authorDisplay": "Wolfpack Research", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "b084d8_d2e3f39b646c430b95b80b7f2a0f3ea2.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2025-01-29 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2025-01-29 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 22:57:32+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 18, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Mercury General Corporation", "targetTicker": "MCY", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/f6c49e173cdf", "activist_firm": "Wolfpack Research", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 183.9166178703308 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 18, "pagesIndexed": 18, "pagesWithImages": 18, "pagesWithMetadata": 18, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 105, "chartCount": 0, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 8, "documentToolMatches": 1, "frameworkMatches": 2, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "314c60f9-7073-4a36-858d-f9422a47616b", "evidence": "The document follows a problem-agitate-solution structure, presenting the problem of wildfire losses, agitating it by highlighting the company's vulnerability, and implying a solution through the data and analysis presented", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:48.356334+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 2, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "2a540b0e-7ff5-4579-ba51-498f7a369c0c", "matchId": "314c60f9-7073-4a36-858d-f9422a47616b", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies the problem of Mercury General's exposure to wildfires and the potential losses", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 7, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 3, "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatId": "c43fa7ea-4455-4dc5-a72b-594243c27f8c", "matchId": "314c60f9-7073-4a36-858d-f9422a47616b", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents detailed data and analysis to highlight the severity of the problem", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 12, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 8, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "bab64403-0c32-4bf5-b489-aeff8c8310b2", "matchId": "314c60f9-7073-4a36-858d-f9422a47616b", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document implies a solution through the data and analysis presented, highlighting the company's vulnerability and potential losses", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 10, "loop": { "name": "08_analogy", "slug": "08-analogy", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Complex concepts, new markets, technical explanations for non-experts", "canonId": "019dd956-6901-7032-ba44-96eaed94c949", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight", "description": "Explain the unfamiliar through a well-understood parallel domain", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Explanation", "categorySlug": "explanation" }, "matchId": "56e54ac7-ad50-4147-bb48-a1e3df6299f4", "evidence": "The document uses an analogy to describe the company's strategy, comparing it to a 'Hail Mary'", "position": 0, "objective": "To highlight the company's strategy to address its losses", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:48.525889+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 18, "from": 1, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "cd27e204-1caa-4b42-9d62-a73b957c0229", "evidence": "The document highlights the potential consequences of not addressing the losses, including financial instability and potential bankruptcy", "position": 1, "objective": "To emphasize the consequences of not addressing the losses", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:48.567884+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "925439ed-f291-41f4-8920-c1a3d64c2c57", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.209813+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "38549896-11dd-492f-8535-99307a89b044", "evidence": "The slide uses a before-after structure to discuss the potential consequences of MCY not having additional reinsurance.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:32.155355+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 2, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Waterfall chart", "slug": "waterfall-chart", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "e2799da3-725f-44a9-a093-570f1f388e64", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "21c2fc75-8848-4be7-a0f4-cf40378571aa", "evidence": "The slide mentions a detailed estimate of $934 million in homeowner policy losses from wildfire, which could be visualized using a waterfall chart.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:32.193351+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 2, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? 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Use it before structuring; pair with Pyramid when the deck must also withstand line-by-line scrutiny.", "canonId": "019dd956-7dd1-74d7-9866-ffdef19ecfbf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "c30d7484-69e0-4e21-82cf-20fa0966869e", "description": "Nancy Duarte's articulation of how to frame a presentation's central message: the speaker's unique point of view plus what's at stake for the audience, expressed as one complete declarative sentence. 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Use it before structuring; pair with Pyramid when the deck must also withstand line-by-line scrutiny.", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:11:32.618274+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "whyItWorks": "Solves the topic-not-thesis trap and the stake-less recommendation trap simultaneously. A single declarative sentence with a verb forces the speaker's stance into the room; routing the consequence through the word 'you' translates internal urgency into the audience's currency. The result is short enough to be repeated after the meeting — and that repetition is the persuasion mechanism.", "antipattern": "A topic dressed as a thesis ('Sustainability Roadmap 2026'), a stake attached to the speaker rather than the audience, two ideas spliced with 'and', abstract verbs (leverage / unlock / empower) that survive deletion, or writing the Big Idea after the deck is already built so the slides don't actually defend it.", "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": "Forces the deck to commit to a single declarative thesis before slide one — a sentence that names the speaker's stance and routes a consequence through the audience's currency. Acts as the filter every slide, anecdote, and chart must ladder up to." } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "957f31ee-95b0-4eb7-a4ac-c915362422a0", "evidence": "Visual comparison of before and after fire damage", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:39.82+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "frameworkName": "before-after-framing" }, { "matchId": "000f761b-4cfb-4d46-aa38-0159d8da8dbd", "evidence": "The slide explicitly argues that the company is misrepresenting contract terms to investors.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:43.281+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "analytical", "notes": "Short-biased research note in memo format (not a slide deck). Rhetorical craft: uses MCY's own 8-K language ('can be considered a separate occurrence') against reinsurance contract's 150-mile single-occurrence clause to expose the 'Hail Mary' maneuver. Core insight is an alpha-from-obscurity move: reverse-geocoding LA County ArcGIS damage maps and cross-referencing against a 4,000-page CAIC SERFF rate filing to get zip-code-level policy counts the Street ignored. Before/after satellite photos of Pacific Palisades on p.8 and zip-code PIF tables on p.5 are the strongest visual evidence. No price target per firm policy; thesis is loss-magnitude rather than fraud. Classified as fraud_exposure+other since short report alleges inadequate disclosure rather than accounting fraud.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "929 (vs. 4 for CSAA — 178x peer)", "metric": "HO-3 policies in Altadena (91001)" }, { "detail": "385 (vs. 2 for CSAA)", "metric": "HO-3 policies in Pacific Palisades (90272)" }, { "detail": "5,823 of 9,266 inspected — 62.84%", "metric": "Homes destroyed in 91001 (Eaton fire)" }, { "detail": "3,610 of 5,841 inspected — 61.80%", "metric": "Homes destroyed in 90272 (Palisades fire)" }, { "detail": "$1.88bn across Eaton + Palisades + Malibu zips", "metric": "Estimated gross HO-3 losses" }, { "detail": "$131mm from 99 Altadena + 31 Palisades policies", "metric": "Estimated landlord policy losses" }, { "detail": "$2.1bn+ vs. $1.3bn reinsurance tower", "metric": "Estimated total MCY losses" }, { "detail": "$1.43bn = $388mm surplus + $1.29bn reinsurance − $150mm retention − $101mm reinstatement", "metric": "CAIC total liquidity (Q3 2024)" }, { "detail": "6.35%", "metric": "MCY statewide homeowners market share" }, { "detail": "$542mm capital floor (150% RBC); MCY buffer only $514mm", "metric": "Regulatory intervention threshold" }, { "detail": "$251mm in fees to unlock $1.2bn additional coverage if fires treated as two events", "metric": "Retroactive reinsurance cost" } ], "closingAsk": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 183.91661, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Losses exceeding CAIC's $1.4bn liquidity force a capital raise, dividend suspension, or breach of the $542mm RBC regulatory intervention threshold, with MCY's $514mm buffer easily consumed by unaccounted auto, smoke, and displacement costs.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "other" ], "top3Reasons": [ "MCY insures 929 homes in Altadena — 178x CSAA's exposure in the same zip codes", "LA wildfire losses exceed $2bn, blowing through MCY's $1.3bn reinsurance tower", "CAIC's $1.4bn liquidity cannot absorb losses; dividend cut or capital raise likely" ], "scqaSituation": "Mercury General (MCY) is California's 5th largest home insurer, with its CAIC subsidiary concentrating homeowner policies in LA zip codes including Altadena and Pacific Palisades, nominally protected by a $1.3bn reinsurance tower.", "thesisSummary": "Wolfpack is short Mercury General (MCY), arguing its California subsidiary CAIC is ~$2 billion underwater from the January 2025 Eaton and Palisades wildfires — losses that will blow through the company's $1.3 billion reinsurance tower. Using an obscure 4,000-page CAIC rate filing, Wolfpack mapped MCY's policies-in-force by zip code and found outsized exposure (929 HO-3s in Altadena, 385 in Pacific Palisades — 178x CSAA in the same zips) against LA County damage data showing ~62% of homes destroyed. MCY's 'Hail Mary' is an attempt to treat the two fires as separate events under its reinsurance treaty, unlocking another $1.2bn of coverage for $251mm in fees; Wolfpack expects reinsurers to litigate this for years. With CAIC holding only $1.4bn in liquidity, losses could breach the $542mm RBC intervention threshold and force a capital raise or dividend cut.", "primaryDemands": [], "scqaResolution": "Short MCY; management's 'Hail Mary' to reclassify the fires as two separate events — unlocking $1.2bn of retroactive reinsurance for $251mm in fees — will be litigated for years by reinsurers.", "thesisOneLiner": "Mercury General faces >$2bn in LA wildfire losses uncovered by its $1.3bn reinsurance tower, eroding subsidiary capital and risking dividend cuts, capital raises, and regulatory review.", "precedentsCited": [ "Woolsey Fire 2018 (~$3.3mm per structure in 2024 dollars)" ], "scqaComplication": "The January 2025 Eaton and Palisades fires destroyed ~60-63% of single-family homes in MCY's core exposure zips, driving estimated losses above $2bn that Wolfpack quantifies from an obscure 4,000-page rate filing the Street has ignored.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 8, 9, 12 ], 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"text": "estimated wildfire losses: $2 billion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:35:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5b8-96e39bf741ab", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our analysis shows MCY's California subsidiary is deep underwater as we expect more than $2 billion in claims will blow the top off its $1.3 billion reinsurance tower and eat up its subsidiary's existing capital.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:38.367+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3a8a31e0-b680-4184-900c-8acf34e8cdb8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Due to the difficulty in finding this rate filing, we would like to direct readers to the footnote at the bottom of page 1. This document, filed in June 2024 by an MCY subsidiary, allows us to see how many policies in force MCY has per zip code.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:38.367+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41341d31-4872-425c-b252-036da8f67f0e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We are short insurer Mercury General (MCY) as we estimate the company faces more than $2 billion in losses following the LA wildfires (Eaton and Palisades). We have discovered an obscure, ~4,000-page rate filing which reveals the number of homes and condominiums MCY insures in each California zip code.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:38.367+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "75ce1ddd-fb17-49d8-becc-75c376cfd7cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Management seems slow to share the true extent of its exposure with investors, instead opting to tell investors on a market holiday that the fires \"can be considered a separate occurrence\" for reinsurance purposes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:38.367+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "93fa1e61-25a1-402f-abbd-834d7d4048b7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We used this data to estimate MCY's losses from the fires and arrived at ~$2 billion in gross losses (for homeowner and landlord policies), more than enough to eat through the company's $1.3 billion in reinsurance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:38.367+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bddbec6e-e1ef-4198-bc4f-db6be87358f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We expect MCY's reinsurers to fight any demand for additional reinsurance coverage. Multiple reinsurance experts we spoke with expect the fires to be treated as a single event.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:38.367+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d83087a8-5c94-439f-9e12-33421b324482", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The bulk of the industry that's affected by this is going to consider this one event. So, Mercury would be an outlier. So, I don't see them winning in court on something like that. — Multiple reinsurance experts", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:35:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5b8-92eb0e489704", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Insurers in California need to file extensive information to request an increase in rates. 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Our analysis shows MCY will incur at least $934 million in homeowner policy losses from the Pacific Palisades.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:35:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5b8-6f63d78acdf3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Regulatory filing analysis, reinsurance event designation dispute, replacement cost analysis, and comparative exposure analysis against peers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:37.16+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e5f147e-530f-4683-a0a3-8bc84e04840e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "wildfire losses: $934 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:35:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5b8-75acbf20dacd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Without additional reinsurance, we expect MCY will struggle to obtain the cash it needs to pay out all its fire damage claims. We would not be surprised if MCY suspends its dividend, raises additional capital, or takes other drastic steps in response to this crisis.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:37.16+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "507251df-9f3b-4e3b-9528-089fea204cce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"they [PCS] don't have any standing authority to designate one event versus another unless it's something in their contract says that's the case, but that would be unusual.\" — Reinsurance expert; \"many of the homes [destroyed] are bespoke and high value, so it will take extra effort to understand designs and replacement costs.\" — BMS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:35:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5b8-709b83416cf6", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. 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MCY’s subsidiary, CAIC, only has $1.4 billion between its reinsurance and remaining available surplus as of Q3 2024 to pay claims. We think CAIC could face a liquidity crunch, forcing MCY to rapidly move funds around to preserve liquidity. Both Moody’s and Fitch have recently downgraded its ratings for MCY, citing the company’s exposure to the fires.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:42.133+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "486ee9e0-e107-4305-8f31-76d3dc013d10", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "list", "text": "In May, MCY announced it would try to provide coverage to thousands of non-renewed Tokio Marine personal lines policyholders. State Farm reportedly announced it would non-renew 1,600 Pacific Palisades homeowner policies in July 2024, after MCY’s rate filing was submitted. 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MCY is yet to disclose to investors how many insurance policies it has in zip codes impacted by the fires or even state how many claims they have incurred, leaving investors guessing what the extent of the damage is.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:42.133+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c943ae88-44f8-4f11-8de0-0f76fdb3d20a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This ~4,000-page document allows us to see the number of homes and condos CAIC, MCY’s subsidiary, insures in each zip code in California. We can effectively use this document to understand MCY’s home and condominium exposure to the Eaton and Palisades fires. To ensure you have downloaded the correct rate filing, below is what the 2nd page of this rate filing looks like.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:42.133+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "730f971b-385b-4e23-847a-cf01d83d37f6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Through the California Department of Insurance portal, we obtained the rate filing documents for MCY’s wholly owned subsidiary, California Automobile Insurance Company (CAIC). A rate filing is a document that insurance companies, like MCY, submit to the California Department of Insurance to request changing the rates they charge policyholders. 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We were able to extract the geocoordinates (latitude, longitude) of every property inspected in the above maps. We wrote a program to reverse engineer the geocoordinates into a property address, allowing us to evaluate damage from the fires on a per zip code basis. LA County’s damage analysis indicates that the three most heavily impacted zip codes by the fires are Altadena (91001), Pacific Palisades (90272), and Malibu (90265). 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From rate filings filed by MCY, we know the company insures 929 homes and 99 landlord policies. Here is an aerial video of the damages. Seen below is a satellite photo of Altadena during the Eaton fire.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:39.065+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "42d484e1-979b-4fc6-9cb6-d72726891b31", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In Pacific Palisades (90272), MCY insures 385 homes and wrote 31 landlord policies. Per LA County, we can see that 3,610 single-family residences in 90272 were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Shown below is a before and after satellite photo of a neighborhood in the Pacific Palisades.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:39.065+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e988584f-c19f-468f-918b-485c42c043dd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.44, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: LA County Damage Data, Wolfpack Analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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By applying the County’s reported damage proportions for Pacific Palisades (90272) and Altadena (91001) to MCY’s homeowner policyholder base in these areas, we can calculate an estimate of destroyed properties. 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So they cite those. The whole PCS thing, honestly, I think there's some bluster there, that they're [MCY] are just posturing.\" — Reinsurance expert. \"Additionally, if each individual event is classified as its own catastrophic event by the Property Claims Service (\"PCS\"), a unit of the Insurance Services Office, each event can be considered a separate occurrence. 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As of September 30, 2024, CAIC only had $388 million in surplus.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:22.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bd1fc86c-4883-4b94-a100-ce7eba52365e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "What do they mean exactly by “can be” considered a separate occurrence? Our initial assessment is that although the contract is very clear that events occurring within 150 miles can be considered a single occurrence, it may not be as clear about what it means when PCS says otherwise.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:22.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bd29260a-0106-4156-b214-2979f242ae00", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Wolfpack Analyst: “if there is a legal battle over it, and I think we both agree there would be, this would take years and years, correct?” Reinsurance Expert: “Correct. Yeah. Oh, yeah. They’d [MCY] be underwater for a while, even if they were to win the thing. But, yeah, it takes years.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:22.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "380f6521-f8c1-4178-b7eb-95cb13edcd74", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“I think it’s a problem that’s going to be with them for a number of years. So even if they [MCY] manage to get through this, the price they’re going to pay going forward is going to be orders of magnitude more than they paid this year.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:22.889+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d4ebd722-3a7b-46b9-bbf8-d3df9e61be09", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I think it's a problem that's going to be with them for a number of years. 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HO-3 Losses $(1,882); Est. 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Based on direct premiums written for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.\n6 Per Zillow, the average California home value is ~$773k. Assigning a 75% dwelling value as we did elsewhere in our report, that yields a replacement value of ~$580k. Given 30% of MCY's direct written premium for homeowner's is written outside California, we used the average U.S home value reported by Zillow of $357k and assessed dwelling value at 75%. Taking a weighted average of these values based off direct premium written (California 70%, non-California 30%), we estimate the average replacement cost for MCY is $487k.\n7 The average California home value is $773,262 per Zillow.\n8 Homeowners underwriting guidelines available here. The landlord underwriting guideline is available through SERFF tracking number: MERY-134235497\n9 The statutory language is available here, although it looks as if it were only codified in 2025, prior to this the California Department of Insurance had made identical rules. This online article in the Advocate does a nice job breaking down the particulars of the rules and its history.\n10 Zip code 90272\n11 Insurance Information Institute\n12 SERFF Tracking #: WSUN-133844493\n13 Insurance Information Institute\n14 MCY Press Release\n15 CBS News. Another article published after the fire indicates that State Farm had only nonrenewed 30 percent of these policies prior to the fire, meaning that ~500 homes. State Farm is trying to appear magnanimous, but California's moratorium on non-renewals in CA is the likely reason why they are allowing these people to renew.\n16 Reinsurance News and Fitch Ratings\n17 Appendix A\n18 California Department of Insurance\n19 CAIC Rate Filing\n20 LA County Eaton Fire and LA County Palisades Fire\n21 Screenshot taken from LA County site, 1/25/25\n22 Screenshot taken from LA County site, 1/25/25\n23 Data retrieved from LA County's ArcGIS maps on 1/20/25\n24 We used a reverse geocoding API to approximate addresses of each home which LA County has inspected.\n25 Data retrieved from LA County's ArcGIS maps on 1/20/25\n26 It is important to note that New York Drive (which you can see in the video) appears to be the southern boundary of 91001.\n27 SERFF Tracking #: MERY-134235497\n28 Our estimates are based on data retrieved from LA County's ArcGIS maps on 1/20/25 covering their damage assessment of single-story and multi-story single family residences.\n29 CalMatters estimates that structure value is 59% of LA property values. 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"kind": "disclaimer", "text": "If you obtain Information as an agent for any third-party, you agree that you are binding that third-party to the terms and conditions set forth in the Agreement. Unless otherwise noted and/or explicitly disclosed, you should assume that as of the publication date of the applicable Information, WPR (along with or by and through any WPR Party(ies)), together with its clients and/or investors, has an investment position in all Securities featured by and through the WPR Offerings, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of such Securities change in connection with the Information.\n\nWe intend to continue transacting in the Securities featured by and through the WPR Offerings for an indefinite period, and we may be long, short or neutral at any time, regardless of any related information that is published from time-to-time.\n\nTherefore, you should assume that upon publication of this report, we will, or have begun to, close a substantial portion – possibly the entirety – of our positions in the Covered Issuer’s securities. 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