{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-8c03a48e7d6f", "slug": "86e21d9d1e23", "title": "PMV Pharmaceuticals (PMVP)", "subtitle": "Wolfpack Research · 2022-05", "author": "Wolfpack Research", "date": "2022-05-19 00:00:00", "pageCount": 19, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "PMV Pharmaceuticals", "targetTicker": "PMVP", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-8c03a48e7d6f", "slug": "86e21d9d1e23", "title": "PMV Pharmaceuticals (PMVP)", "rawTitle": "b084d8 d29fea6d0f6945dabed957380c323e69", "authorId": "60_Wolfpack_Research", "authorName": "Wolfpack Research", "authorDisplay": "Wolfpack Research", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "b084d8_d29fea6d0f6945dabed957380c323e69.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2022-05-26 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2022-05-19 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 22:55:44+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 19, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "PMV Pharmaceuticals", "targetTicker": "PMVP", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/86e21d9d1e23", "activist_firm": "Wolfpack Research", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 109.08964824676514 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 19, "pagesIndexed": 19, "pagesWithImages": 19, "pagesWithMetadata": 19, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 131, "chartCount": 10, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 2, "documentToolMatches": 2, "frameworkMatches": 10, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "matchId": "cdb09594-893e-439f-be04-1fd681f65084", "evidence": "The document critiques PMV Pharma's drug candidate, highlighting several concerns that could lead to its failure.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:35.830308+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 12, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 3, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "f89a3578-3b10-48a0-a0dc-890f21967937", "matchId": "cdb09594-893e-439f-be04-1fd681f65084", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document exposes contradictions and concerns regarding PMV Pharma's drug candidate.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. 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Format is a Word-style memo with embedded screenshots from PMV's own investor deck and 10-K, annotated with Wolfpack's commentary (red circles, blue boxes, 'Same protein?' callouts). No named human author — credited only to the firm. Strong rhetorical pattern: pull management's own slide, point out a flaw, contrast with peer (Kymera, Aprea). Photoshop allegation on the gel image (p4) is the standout visual claim. Aprea precedent on p15 acts as the analogue/scare chart. Disclaimer makes clear WPR holds a short position. Catalyst-driven short — thesis is timed to a specific binary event 7 days out.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$628M at $13.77/share", "metric": "Market capitalization" }, { "detail": "$295M as of March 2022, with $18M quarterly burn", "metric": "Cash on hand" }, { "detail": "0.192 µM to >8.6 µM across cell lines vs Kymera KT-253 in picomolar range (~100x weaker)", "metric": "PC14586 IC50" }, { "detail": "~7.5 hours at 100 mg/kg; activity returns to pre-dose levels by 24 hours", "metric": "Half-life of PC14586" }, { "detail": "~570 mg/day extrapolated from 100 mg/kg mouse dose; mgmt now floating 1000-2000 mg QD", "metric": "Effective human dose" }, { "detail": "~1-1.5% of all cancers, ~75,000 newly diagnosed cases per year", "metric": "Y220C prevalence" }, { "detail": "Stock cratered 77% after Phase 3 failure in Dec 2020", "metric": "Aprea (APRE) post-failure drop" }, { "detail": "Originally N=30; management now seeking protocol amendment to enroll more patients", "metric": "Phase I trial size" } ], "closingAsk": "Short PMVP ahead of the May 26, 2022 Phase I abstract — the drug will likely follow Aprea's path and the stock has limited downside support beyond ~$295M of cash.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:55:44+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 109.089645, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Downside roughly mirrors Aprea's 77% post-failure crash: stock at $13.77 against ~$295M cash implies the equity is worth a fraction of the current $628M market cap.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "undervaluation" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Preclinical gel image appears photoshopped, suggesting cherry-picked mechanism data", "PC14586 needs ~570 mg/day in humans — Kymera's KT-253 is ~100x more potent", "Drug has 7.5-hour half-life and narrow therapeutic window, unlikely to clear FDA" ], "scqaSituation": "PMV Pharmaceuticals is a single-asset oncology biotech whose entire $628M valuation rests on PC14586, an oral small molecule designed to reactivate the p53 Y220C mutation found in roughly 1% of cancers.", "thesisSummary": "Wolfpack Research argues that PMV Pharmaceuticals' lead oncology candidate PC14586, an oral small molecule targeting the p53 Y220C mutation, will fail when Phase I data drop on May 26, 2022. Preclinical mouse studies required doses up to 100 mg/kg (≈570 mg/day in humans) for tumor regression while competitor Kymera's KT-253 shows IC50 in the picomolar range — roughly 100x more potent. The drug also has a 7.5-hour half-life that bounces back to baseline within 24 hours, a narrow therapeutic window, and questionable selectivity beyond Y220C. A key mechanism gel in PMV's investor deck appears photoshopped, and management has stopped advancing follow-on R273H/R282W programs while pivoting to a new WIP1 target. Wolfpack draws an explicit parallel to Aprea Therapeutics (APRE), whose similar p53 reactivator eprenetapopt failed in late 2020 and the stock dropped 77%. With $628M market cap and only $295M cash, downside is steep.", "primaryDemands": [ "Short PMVP ahead of Phase I readout", "Reassess valuation against $295M net cash floor" ], "scqaResolution": "Short PMVP into the May 26, 2022 Phase I abstract release; assume the lead and similar R273H/R282W programs are worthless and assign no value to the speculative WIP1 pivot.", "thesisOneLiner": "PMV's Phase I readout on May 26 will disappoint: PC14586 is too weak, too toxic, and too short-lived to win FDA approval, leaving only $295M of cash behind a $628M market cap.", "precedentsCited": [ "Aprea Therapeutics / eprenetapopt (APR-246) failure (Dec 2020, -77%)", "Kymera Therapeutics KT-253 (MDM2 degrader) as potency benchmark" ], "scqaComplication": "Preclinical data show low potency (IC50 0.19-8.6 µM vs Kymera's picomolar), a 7.5-hour half-life, narrow therapeutic window, possibly photoshopped mechanism gels, and management is already pivoting to WIP1 — signs the Phase I readout will 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Lackluster results may terminate PC14586.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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These point mutations occur when a single DNA base change from the wild-type (normal) p53 gene can inactivate the p53 protein and result in the survival and unchecked progression of cancer cells. Many human genes require multiple mutations to fail, but unfortunately p53 is susceptible to a single mutation. 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Mutations in the p53 protein limit its ability and result in the survival and progression of cancer cells it would otherwise target.2 P53 mutations are present in approximately 50-60% of all cancers and p53 has been a focus for cancer researchers since its discovery in 1979.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:47.274+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "34435bb3-d93c-49a5-858f-8c8b4337c5c9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PMV Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PMVP) is an oncology company developing a suite of small molecule, tumor-agnostic, therapies targeting the tumor suppressor protein p53. The company's lead drug candidate and only clinical-stage asset is PC14586, an oral, small molecule stabilizer and reactivator of a specific p53 point-mutation, Y220C. This point mutation is present in ~1% of all cancers, or about 75,000 newly diagnosed cases each year. There are currently no FDA approved drugs that specifically target the Y220C p53 mutation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:47.274+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "44d5d5ea-0424-4b01-a2e3-9a1500adcafe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PMV Developed a Drug Designed to Target Hotspot Mutations to p53 Proteins Present in 1% of All Cancers, Potentially a Lucrative Product, if Successful", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:47.274+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b1a1795a-4dfa-4b5c-8a14-c24fb6eb26e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The p53 mutation is prolific in human cancer, so this area has been the subject of numerous academic studies. The PubMed database shows research programs targeting Y220C have been attempted since 2006. Several academic papers3 have suggested that targeting the Y220C mutation could be a viable approach, although the lack of interest by large well-funded pharma companies speaks volumes about the results of these studies. 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The bull-case for the drugs and company is that this is a tumor-agnostic therapeutic approach with wide potential therapeutic applications. However, PMV’s proposed therapeutic strategy has been tried before, and it never worked.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:47.274+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "edeb2510-50e6-4660-bb26-8faa395b6ee1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "2 See Appendix 1\n3 See Appendix 2", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Illustration", "slug": "illustration", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe76-7772-a5ac-c0b7294d7615", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "illustration", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:46.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fd7b465e-7ffd-4c4a-a5ba-eb3d2cabebeb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Even though PMV has several different drugs in the beginning stages of development, its hopes are currently riding on one drug, PC 14586, which has advanced through the preclinical stages and into Phase I.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:46.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3908c290-61f9-4c18-b199-4b10333bc32c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One of PMV's co-founders, Dr. Arnold Levine, was part of the initial discovery of the p53 protein in 1979. While Dr. Levine has made great contributions to medicine in his 82 years, the company he started appears now to emphasize Levine's past accomplishments over new hard data. PMV's website and investor communications are filled with general p53 information designed to intrigue retail investors but lacks current data and hard science.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:46.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "55c38126-b340-4aec-ad9c-e8af9f9602c8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PMV designed PC14586 to stabilize the p53 Y220C point mutation in which tyrosine (T) is substituted by cysteine (C) at amino acid 220 of the protein. This single amino acid change creates a small crevice in the p53 protein, making it thermally unstable and unable to effectively interact with DNA. PC14586 targets this crevice with a small molecule meant to restore function to p53 Y220C.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:09:46.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c2d05bc6-049f-495b-a85e-c9426520c758", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "4 PMVP, 10-K, 11, 3/1/2022", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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