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Word-style prose format, 33 pages, with embedded FPDS screenshots, congressional budget-table clippings, a roundtripping diagram (IONQ <-> EPB Chattanooga with $7.5M federal earmarks arrow), and the Pentagon's own quantum-readiness chart. The rhetorical spine is a forensic cross-reference of coded earmark language ('ion trap quantum computing', 'trapped ion quantum computing systems') in House/Senate bills to FPDS award records to IONQ press releases — a reusable short-seller pattern. Strong CEO-quote contradictions: de Masi's 'nine figures' / 'sound of the woods' non-answers, Chapman's testimonial for Clark Street Associates ('positioning us for substantial funding that has been transformative'), Kate Arrington admitting she had no quantum background before joining. Closing ask is explicit sell recommendation + implicit DOJ/SEC referral on insider sales. Per Wolfpack disclaimer, no price target given. Visual design is 2 (plain Word doc with stock screenshots + yellow highlighter), but narrative craft is 4 — very tight SCQA structure, dense citations (58 footnotes), and memorable framing devices ('black hole', 'backdoor earmarks', 'holding the bag').", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$65.5M of $76.2M recognized 2022-2024 revenue — up to ~86%", "metric": "Pentagon earmarks as share of revenue" }, { "detail": "$54.6M black hole — 58% of 2024 bookings were unfunded contract option ceilings (e.g. $54.5M AFRL award where only $11.989M was obligated)", "metric": "Inflated bookings / contract ceiling gap" }, { "detail": "$396.6M by 8 insiders March 11-14, 2025, including Chapman's $37.5M first-ever discretionary sale and de Masi's $104.8M 10b5-1 executed June 11", "metric": "Insider sales during FY2025 budget vote" }, { "detail": "Deteriorated from negative $33M (Q4 2024) to negative $123.1M (Q3 2025)", "metric": "Cash flow from operations" }, { "detail": "$3M paid to Clark Street Associates since April 2021 (registered 15 months before AFRL's first IONQ contract)", "metric": "Lobbying fees paid" }, { "detail": "~$12.5M from renewed Qubitekk earmark — likely the only genuine quantum revenue in FY2026", "metric": "Core quantum computing revenue estimate" }, { "detail": "$1.596B (announced June 9, 2025; closed Sept 17, 2025), ~$1.586B in stock, after DARPA denied IONQ's own Stage B advancement", "metric": "Oxford Ionics acquisition price" }, { "detail": "IONQ quietly funded $15M of the $22M EPB 'sale'; may have accounted for ~50% of IONQ's quantum computing revenue through Q3 2025", "metric": "EPB Chattanooga deal self-financing" } ], "closingAsk": "We think the wisest thing any investor can do is imitate management and sell this stock while it is still hot.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:29+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 217.9726, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Wolfpack offers no price target, but with genuine quantum revenue estimated at only ~$12.5M (Qubitekk earmark), cash burn at negative $123M/quarter, and a $1.6B all-stock Oxford Ionics deal covering a DARPA snub, substantial downside appears likely.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "other" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Up to 86% of IONQ's 2022-2024 revenues came from secret Pentagon backdoor earmarks, now defunded", "Management is backfilling a $54.6M bookings hole via non-quantum roll-ups (Capella, Vector, IDQ, SKYT)", "Eight insiders sold or 10b5-1'd $396.6M ahead of earmark cuts entering the public record" ], "scqaSituation": "IonQ is a publicly traded ion-trap quantum computing company carrying a ~$13.6 billion market cap, with management claiming commercial validation from the largest Pentagon quantum contracts ever awarded — up to 86% of 2022-2024 revenues.", "thesisSummary": "Wolfpack Research is short IONQ, arguing that the Pentagon contracts that propelled IONQ to a $14 billion valuation and supplied up to 86% of 2022-2024 revenues were not competitive awards but backdoor congressional earmarks procured by lobbying firm Clark Street Associates for $3 million in fees. After the 2024 election, those earmarks were cut from FY2025 and FY2026 budgets, leaving a $54.6 million black hole in bookings. CEO Peter Chapman resigned and new CEO Niccolo de Masi quietly dropped bookings guidance while rolling up non-quantum companies — Qubitekk, Capella Space, Vector Atomics, IDQ, Oxford Ionics, and the proposed SkyWater deal — to disguise the missing revenue. Eight insiders sold or set up 10b5-1 plans for $396.6 million during the budget vote, before the earmark cuts entered the public record, raising material insider-trading questions. Wolfpack recommends selling.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell IONQ stock — imitate management's own behavior", "Authorities should investigate whether $396.6M of insider 10b5-1 and discretionary sales during the March 11-14 FY2025 budget vote involved MNPI", "Investors should discount management's commercialization narrative as a lobbyist-driven illusion rather than genuine Pentagon validation" ], "scqaResolution": "Investors should sell IONQ and regulators should investigate whether the $396.6M of insider 10b5-1 and discretionary sales executed between the March 11-14 budget vote and March 19 public release violated MNPI rules.", "thesisOneLiner": "IONQ's $14B valuation relied on Pentagon 'validation' that was really backdoor congressional earmarks — now unfunded — with management hiding the $54M hole via non-quantum roll-ups while insiders dumped $396M.", "precedentsCited": [ "Kerrisdale's prior short thesis on IONQ's technology", "Scorpion Capital's 2021 IONQ report (former employee 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20:10:06.824+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c77a38bc-fe26-42be-8117-ad1e4e0f9609", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The market’s negative reaction to IONQ’s deal to acquire SKYT shows how uneasy it is with the implications of IONQ’s pivot to rolling up subpar non-quantum computing businesses, in our view.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { 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And we expect these non-quantum computing companies to generate $160-$180 million in 2026. SKYT's revenues for its semi-conducting business will likely make up the majority of revenues. IONQ's quantum revenues? We estimate $12.5 million from Qubitekk's renewed backdoor earmark could be the only token source of quantum computing revenues this year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:04.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9c9f1d44-43df-4166-8f4a-81931df0af81", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The purchase of SKYT is particularly puzzling and shatters the idea IONQ is a quantum pure play. IONQ opened a manufacturing and R&D facility in Washington in 2024. Yet management is selling this as vertical integration, but IONQ does not even have a business to vertically integrate yet! SKYT appears to be another business that relies on backdoor earmarks for funding, supplementing its razor-thin margins with government grants (TTM operating income was just $3.1 million on TTM revenues of $346.6 million). In fact, they used to have the same lobbyist (though that relationship ended with a dispute over fees that went to federal court). However, unlike IONQ, SKYT's earmark was funded in the latest budget for $34.2 million. We suspect IONQ is salivating over the prospect of announcing this as some sort of new collaboration between themselves and the Pentagon.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:04.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9faee64f-a92e-493c-9995-0ba1def8cea9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.703 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We believe the Qubitekk and EPB Chattanooga deals underscore the truth of statements made by a former employee cited in Scorpion's extensive 2021 report, claiming the company would pay to make deals: \"Peter Chapman was saying that if you have to spend a lot of money to get a deal, that's fine with me, I just want the signing.\" We learned from a confidential source that a former executive confirmed the truth of this statement made to Scorpion. Here we see them buying Qubitekk, which they will only break even on after nearly two years, while failing to disclose in any place that we could find that they paid $15 million for the EPB project just to say they won a $22 million sale.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:04.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c05a0658-93d1-4019-a814-80affdd10117", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.463 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We believe IONQ's purchase of Qubitekk on December 27th, 2024, was primarily used to inflate bookings and create the false appearance of ongoing government support for IONQ. Qubitekk received an $8.9 million contract from an arm of the Pentagon called the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) on December 20th, 2024, although this contract contained an unfunded ceiling to potentially increase its value to $21.1 million. This too, was the product of a backdoor earmark. On December 27th, IONQ purchased Qubitekk Federal, LLC (Qubitekk) for $22 million. On January 5th, IONQ announced its purchase of Qubitekk, then announced on January 13th that IONQ itself had won the federal contract valued at $21.1 million. This $21.1 million number was reported in its Q4 2024 earnings release as part of its bookings, even though only $8.9 million was funded at the time. Our analysis of the bipartisan FY 2026 budget shows IONQ did get its Qubitekk earmark renewed for $12.5 million, but this renewed earmark only finishes payment on the $21.1 million contract they already announced last year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:04.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "de9db37c-7373-4ae5-a975-001fe14ab87b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.795, "y": 0.925 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Page 3 of 33", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:04.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0013687-70e0-4491-9bf8-1dbab426d1a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Peter Chapman was saying that if you have to spend a lot of money to get a deal, that’s fine with me, I just want the signing. — Former employee cited in Scorpion's extensive 2021 report", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:33:13+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70fa-7556-8657-fd0a008b6874", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "657c2f40-27a3-486c-b7a1-ed37d7556ae5", "evidence": "The slide explicitly argues that acquisitions are used to inflate bookings and create false appearances of government support.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:04.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "def1279a-eed8-4738-90f7-01776f0b8e8b", "matchId": "5248a0c0-df14-4c80-9b67-a685e313fbbc", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "IONQ's Pentagon contract issues and credibility problems", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. 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IDQ is a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) company... Pentagon recently directed its agencies not to use QKD and use Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) instead.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:02.951+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "141980b4-ebf5-46e7-aebd-84418277b773", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "list", "text": "2025 was also a bad year for IONQ's technology. DARPA granted 18 quantum computing companies $1 million apiece... IONQ came up short and did not directly advance to Stage B. Instead... they acquired Oxford Ionics, for $1.596 billion.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:02.951+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8a3c74f9-2dfa-47e7-9009-674181e80bfe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Bulls have touted the appointment of Kate Arrington... 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No. Instead, he cancelled bookings altogether.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "44ae3891-5a49-43cb-b949-31625ed845a9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "So not only did IONQ roll out the announcement of this contract to make it seem it had been awarded after they purchased Qubitekk... they never mentioned that the amount funded for this contract was just $8.97 million, far less than the $21.1 million...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8f14e4cb-2878-4100-93b9-52a069aa4548", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Why not? We suspect they did not want to explain that the only reason the Pentagon awarded these contracts to them in the first place was due to backdoor earmarks...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "962dc99a-65cc-43c5-950d-bafb92e45ef3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Interestingly, our review of the FY 2026 budget tells us that the balance of this contract probably will be funded this year... Will IONQ management pretend this is some sort of new contract?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e09ffaab-d5f0-4545-a72f-a77af9c5fe80", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Facing A Black Hole in Their Bookings, Peter Chapman Resigned as CEO and the New CEO de Masi Drops Bookings Entirely.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9e289df5-252d-4463-9d50-a874dd204230", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "205ae86c-ae84-4da4-bad8-d300bc25b574", "evidence": "The slide explicitly alleges secret earmarking and misleading investors about contract funding.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.071+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "05d6296c-c642-4b62-892d-c7ad64b7e3f2", "matchId": "5248a0c0-df14-4c80-9b67-a685e313fbbc", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "IONQ's attempts to overcome funding and credibility issues", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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We think there are two principal factors driving it. 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But as Roll Call has noted, unmasking the process is sometimes made easier by lawmakers themselves, who can take credit in press releases for securing the funds after votes. And in rare cases, lawmakers will inadvertently blow a company's cover before the spending bill has been passed, let alone been turned into a \"competitively\" awarded Pentagon contract. When this happens, it can provide compelling evidence that the funds were earmarked behind closed doors for one company well ahead of any official actions. This is precisely what happened in IONQ's case for its very first backdoor earmark. On June 7th, 2021, two members of Congress whose constituents consist of people who rely on the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) Information Directorate's headquarters in Rome, NY, put out a joint press release listing AFRL funding projects they supported, including \"IonQ's Ion Trap Quantum Computer.\"49", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:06.955+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8c087ecb-8a2b-4ac7-a50c-4b7e60554f8b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "A new era begins tomorrow:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:33:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70fa-7556-8659-07a895839af0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "title", "text": "The Repeated Use of Key Words Allow Us to Track How Much IONQ Was Feeding at the Government Trough, And to See How They Were Left Out in the Cold.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:06.955+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "98ef7da9-ff60-4fa0-9ff8-04444e2c1b53", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "0b00f351-e34a-48cd-9400-9eabfaa59fa7", "evidence": "The slide explicitly attempts to expose a 'backdoor' earmark process and non-competitive government funding.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:06.955+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 18, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 15, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "0dbce9fb-5914-493b-82a4-6500f0ad4579", "matchId": "5248a0c0-df14-4c80-9b67-a685e313fbbc", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents evidence of IONQ's lack of credibility and funding", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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Chris Van Hollen took credit for IONQ’s contract “wins.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:06.738+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "be276f7c-7203-4445-ab90-9bd97c7f4a02", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I was proud to help secure the necessary funding — Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger. I will keep working to bring investments to Maryland — Sen. 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DARPA's approach, holding a competition that allows the best competitors to rise to the top, is a far better use of taxpayer resources in our view.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:09.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4cc478e6-9383-4d45-b7e3-756dab246c26", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In recent National defense strategy documents, the Pentagon reportedly removed most references to technology like quantum. 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It claimed these deals demonstrated \"the strong market demand for IonQ's innovative quantum computing and networking products,\"55 attributing their success to market forces rather than political influence, which has now collapsed. And that now-unfunded, biggest contract in IONQ's history? 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We will see. But in our view, the commercialization narrative IONQ has been spinning for years seems like a lot of bluster, built on secretively allocated tax dollars given out via political patronage.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:07.529+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4febe925-bbdd-4a0c-9d58-5dfc976c5e9f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Great. So just one quick financial question that we've been getting. 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We are continuing to deliver on our plans for the year, and the beat on this quarter was primarily due to 2 projects for existing customers where we've been able to accelerate the pace of implementation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:10.355+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "33662da5-d1e0-49c4-b64c-816685bba9f6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.032, "w": 0.715, "x": 0.176, "y": 0.262 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Niccolo Mcleod de Masi: It's an excellent question. But as we've said in previous quarters, many of these projects, in particular, the AFRL one contains both sides of the coin. It's quantum computing and networking", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:10.355+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "360015af-304d-4b89-bcf1-61de259b5ec3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.088, "w": 0.773, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.298 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "7 The House vote and Senate vote occurred on March 11th and 14th respectively, with the bill signed by Trump on the 15th. The reason IONQ's loss of funding was not public information is because their name was never mentioned in the bill...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:10.355+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f6090e0-ae64-4946-85d4-ad02e2589f51", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.064, "w": 0.773, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.472 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "9 We calculated this total by examining all the Form 4s listed for IONQ insiders listed on SECFORM4.COM. First, we included any non-discretionary sales that were done from March 11th-14th, as well as any Form 4s that specifically stated that the sale was made pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan adopted from March-11th-14th. 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All prior sales had the following statement on their form...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:10.355+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d7d09046-bc3a-419c-8494-cbf7bd610eb4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.048, "w": 0.715, "x": 0.176, "y": 0.205 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analyst: And were those mostly on the quantum computing side? Or could that include like the Air Force Research Lab on quantum networking? Just some sense on the mix. Is it still predominantly quantum computing?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:10.355+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fb766a41-51fc-4c28-b0ef-05dde0b8f366", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.032, "w": 0.715, "x": 0.176, "y": 0.108 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "sense how much revenue are you starting to generate from the non-quantum computing efforts in the business? 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We also may not directly discuss personal trading or investing ideas with you. The Information made available by and through the Wolfpack Offerings is not a substitute for professional financial advice. 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We sometimes pay former employees indirectly through an expert network to speak with us, and these former employees may hold a grudge against their former employer. In some cases, we directly pay our sources a fixed fee or enter into a profit-sharing agreement with a source. 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By the time you read this report, we may be covering or have already covered (i.e., bought back) our short position, and we are unlikely to increase our short positions unless it is in our financial interest to do so.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:11.054+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b3cedc35-06ee-4dd4-b0b8-86751e1dfe37", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.188 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "If you obtain Information as an agent for any third-party, you agree that you are binding that third-party to the terms and conditions set forth in the Agreement. Unless otherwise noted and/or explicitly disclosed, you should assume that as of the publication date of the applicable Information, Wolfpack (along with or by and through any affiliates)), together with its clients and/or investors, has an investment position in all Securities featured by the Wolfpack Offerings, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of such Securities change in connection with the Information.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:10:11.054+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e6a85b50-3342-4d28-9444-be3edeacc15b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.78, "y": 0.925 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Page 33 of 33", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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