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A single declarative sentence with a verb forces the speaker's stance into the room; routing the consequence through the word 'you' translates internal urgency into the audience's currency. The result is short enough to be repeated after the meeting — and that repetition is the persuasion mechanism.", "antipattern": "A topic dressed as a thesis ('Sustainability Roadmap 2026'), a stake attached to the speaker rather than the audience, two ideas spliced with 'and', abstract verbs (leverage / unlock / empower) that survive deletion, or writing the Big Idea after the deck is already built so the slides don't actually defend it.", "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": "Forces the deck to commit to a single declarative thesis before slide one — a sentence that names the speaker's stance and routes a consequence through the audience's currency. Acts as the filter every slide, anecdote, and chart must ladder up to." }, { "tool": { "name": "Loss Aversion", "slug": "loss-aversion", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9761-738f-8fd4-558a63ea744a", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Losses are felt 2x more strongly than equivalent gains - frame stakes as potential loss", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-eade-764f-b1fc-b5b9547567a2", "evidence": "Frames stakes as percentage downside loss", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Pyramid Principle", "slug": "pyramid-principle", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When the document has a single governing decision or recommendation the reader is asked to accept, and the case can be decomposed into a small number of clean groups. Strategy decks, board memos, investment committee papers.", "canonId": "019dd956-7cbd-7219-a477-c871e2bc1aff", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "88b6ac56-b880-46f9-8621-ef3491ab6235", "description": "Lead with the answer; group three to five MECE supports beneath it; recurse one level down. Top-down hierarchical structure for any document with a single recommendation.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019de87d-eb09-7189-b1df-58ecfaf72790", "evidence": "Conclusion stated up front, then supporting pillars", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": "When the document has a single governing decision or recommendation the reader is asked to accept, and the case can be decomposed into a small number of clean groups. Strategy decks, board memos, investment committee papers.", "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "whyItWorks": "Solves the two failure modes of expert communication at once: (1) the long climb where readers wait pages for the answer, and (2) logical mush from non-MECE groupings. Progressive disclosure lets a reader stop at any depth and get the right information.", "antipattern": "Chronological structure (\"what we did, what we found, what we conclude\") instead of logical hierarchy. Top-of-pyramid that is a topic (\"strategic options\") instead of an answer (\"pursue Option B because...\"). Non-MECE supports that overlap or fail to cover the universe.", "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": "Transfer conviction with minimum reader effort by mirroring how decision-makers consume information: answer first, scaffolding behind." }, { "tool": { "name": "Three Pillars", "slug": "three-pillars", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-81ef-7455-a365-b234d95a6bbb", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Three major supporting arguments that are MECE and address key concerns", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019de87d-ebb1-776a-88a6-261d86f969aa", "evidence": "Three pillars: TCV, Google debt EBITDA, growth", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Negativity Bias", "slug": "negativity-bias", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-966c-77ea-a9a5-f6b95671162e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Negative events recalled more vividly than positive - use carefully for problem framing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-ec7f-7238-bdd1-648d636b340f", "evidence": "Highlights failures and aggressive quotes", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Curiosity Gap", "slug": "curiosity-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9703-74ef-8b85-96dfd8525025", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "People seek missing information - create open questions that demand resolution", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-ef9b-7760-aa78-7729297029e8", "evidence": "Open question 'Why excluded?' creates gap", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 78, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 18, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Curiosity Gap", "slug": "curiosity-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9703-74ef-8b85-96dfd8525025", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "People seek missing information - create open questions that demand resolution", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "block", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-fa49-735b-ba39-1dcb3f6002b3", "evidence": "Missing data point creates open question", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 75, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 46, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "22e6e0f2-c786-4dbf-abe1-4ebc28ffbdcd", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "0f1f11fa-ff35-491c-8258-db7c7e37d87f", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sum of parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f", "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "ebbd817c-5fd9-4e50-a671-84c5fd6d4c55", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "f5f8d466-ffa0-4142-874b-7049213a4389", "evidence": "Eric Lefkofsky (CEO); Brad Keywell; Eric Belcher (audit chair); Peter Barris; Ted Leonsis", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "00c6959a-5b37-4516-91db-4df1578ac700", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Chunking", "slug": "chunking", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-abab-72ce-b64c-2924cc83cf39", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Information grouped into chunks is remembered better - structure content in digestible units", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019de87d-e8f6-7718-98a3-352adff58369", "evidence": "Chunked into 9 sections", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Inductive Reasoning", "slug": "inductive-reasoning", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-99c6-705e-94cc-76a504c3da37", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Grouping similar evidence to form a conclusion (Evidence → Pattern → Conclusion)", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019de87d-edd7-75a4-be9f-ada62ee13775", "evidence": "Three-company comparison table to pattern", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 82, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Contrast Pairs", "slug": "contrast-pairs", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9b77-70d3-88b1-f34e26f60860", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Creating tension through opposites: Before↔After, Problem↔Solution, Pain↔Relief", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-f428-75da-8f0e-5951e4c43667", "evidence": "+/- markers on timeline events", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 78, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 34, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Causal Chain", "slug": "causal-chain", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9e98-7269-907b-8cf727e9499d", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Showing how one event leads to another in sequence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019de87d-f64e-759e-8e1e-d42aa6997bd0", "evidence": "AZ to Tempus to Pathos arrow flow", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 38, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Contrast Pairs", "slug": "contrast-pairs", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9b77-70d3-88b1-f34e26f60860", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Creating tension through opposites: Before↔After, Problem↔Solution, Pain↔Relief", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "loop", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-fc68-758c-987b-bafbdc5928a5", "evidence": "Company narrative vs underlying trends charts", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 78, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 52, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Metaphor & Analogy", "slug": "metaphor-analogy", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-adea-7729-bca1-70810d6238a9", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Making abstract concepts concrete through familiar comparisons", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-e765-748d-ae73-a71222b345f1", "evidence": "Stormy/lightning visual metaphor for instability", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 90, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Opening Hooks", "slug": "opening-hooks", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-aeb0-77d5-bfbd-9cd9a6be8186", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Techniques to capture attention: Startling statistic, provocative question, short story, analogy, contrast", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-e78b-77eb-902e-0d5b8ce0d531", "evidence": "'The Tempest' provocative title hook", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. 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disclosure would have exposed AZ reduction", "confidence": 88 }, { "id": 138, "slug": "annotation", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Red 'Not Disclosed' in TCV history table", "confidence": 85 } ], "page_number": 47 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title states '~$600M Overstated'", "confidence": 92 } ], "page_number": 48 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Updated Guidance Implies Weakness'", "confidence": 88 } ], "page_number": 50 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title states 'Decline Suggests Weaker Long-Term Commitment'", "confidence": 88 }, { "id": 138, "slug": "annotation", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Red arrow showing trend toward zero", "confidence": 82 } ], "page_number": 51 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title contrasts 'Touts Explosion' vs 'Sharp Slow Down'", "confidence": 86 }, { "id": 78, "slug": "contrast-pairs", "layer": "Loop", "evidence": "Company narrative vs underlying trends charts", "confidence": 78 } ], "page_number": 52 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title raises contradiction in storage costs", "confidence": 86 } ], "page_number": 53 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Cloud Storage Requirements Are Declining'", "confidence": 84 } ], "page_number": 54 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Accounts Payable Don't Jive'", "confidence": 86 } ], "page_number": 55 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title asserts low acquisition multiple reasons", "confidence": 86 }, { "id": 138, "slug": "annotation", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Yellow highlight on Ambry row vs peers", "confidence": 85 } ], "page_number": 57 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title flags 'Anomalistic Growth Patterns'", "confidence": 86 }, { "id": 138, "slug": "annotation", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Red border + yellow row for 81479", "confidence": 88 } ], "page_number": 58 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Driving Revenue & Reimbursement Rates'", "confidence": 86 } ], "page_number": 59 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title labels Ambry 'Outlier Growth'", "confidence": 92 }, { "id": 133, "slug": "small-multiples", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Four parallel bar charts of CPT 81479 by company", "confidence": 92 }, { "id": 158, "slug": "von-restorff-effect", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Ambry 78% CAGR box stands out vs others", "confidence": 85 } ], "page_number": 60 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 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Reimbursement Over Clinical Need?'", "confidence": 86 }, { "id": 159, "slug": "contrast-principle", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Side-by-side requisition forms", "confidence": 86 } ], "page_number": 69 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Section opens with 50-60% downside thesis", "confidence": 88 } ], "page_number": 70 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Extremely Dependent On Stock Value'", "confidence": 88 }, { "id": 158, "slug": "von-restorff-effect", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "TEM 77%/283% stands out vs peer averages", "confidence": 80 } ], "page_number": 71 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Follow The Money: Insiders Selling'", "confidence": 88 }, { "id": 138, "slug": "annotation", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Red boxes/arrows over share-count reductions", "confidence": 88 } ], "page_number": 72 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Street vs. Spruce Point Adjusted'", "confidence": 84 }, { "id": 159, "slug": "contrast-principle", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Street vs Spruce Point side-by-side capital structure", "confidence": 85 } ], "page_number": 73 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Poor Risk / Reward'", "confidence": 86 }, { "id": 129, "slug": "chart-selection-guide", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Pie chart of analyst rating distribution", "confidence": 70 } ], "page_number": 74 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title: 'Unwarranted Premium To Peers'", "confidence": 88 } ], "page_number": 75 }, { "tools": [ { "id": 118, "slug": "action-titles", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Title concludes 50%-60% downside risk", "confidence": 92 }, { "id": 124, "slug": "closing-techniques", "layer": "Slide", "evidence": "Final SoP with 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"name": "Peer Gap Chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "evidence": "EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA tables vs peer groups", "confidence": 90 } ], "page_number": 75 }, { "frameworks": [ { "name": "Sum of Parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "evidence": "Related-party + Core + Ambry valued separately, summed", "confidence": 92 } ], "page_number": 76 } ] }, "matchedAt": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.505+00", "slidesSeen": 76, "deckSummary": "Strong consultant-style structure (situation->problem->evidence->impact) with dense action titles and pyramid framing, but the deck's core energy is activist-short patterns (villain naming, peer gap, before/after, sum-of-parts) layered on top — partial Storymakers alignment.", "imagesInspected": 6, "extractionSeconds": 524.269 }, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Spruce Point short report template: teal/grey Spruce Point branding, yellow call-out boxes, red-flag icons for 'Top 5 Concerns', pattern-match to prior Spruce Point campaigns (C3.ai, InnerWorkings) used as credibility precedents. Cover page is a stylized 'storm over tickers' image linking TEM to past shorts (INWK, HMK, GRPN). Heavy use of Lefkofsky's 2000 'let's be WILDLY positive... THE TIME TO GET RADICAL IS NOW' email as CEO-quote-contradiction evidence. Sum-of-parts on p.76 splits core/related-party/Ambry revenue. Stake % not disclosed (Spruce Point typically runs short positions without 13D-style quantification). Author_name null — document signed institutionally as 'Spruce Point Capital Management' with no individual signatory. Campaign phase coded as initial_thesis since this is Spruce Point's first public TEM report.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$12.4M in 2024, under 2% of $693.4M total revenue; $5.5M (~1%) in 2023", "metric": "AI-derived revenue" }, { "detail": "TCV inflated by ~$600M via non-binding opt-ins, milestone payments and related-party flows", "metric": "Total Contract Value overstatement" }, { "detail": "$25.6M LTM non-cash benefit from Google Cloud debt principal reduction, ~320bps margin lift", "metric": "Adjusted EBITDA inflation" }, { "detail": "77% of revenue and 283% of operating cash flow, above peer average 25%/130%", "metric": "Stock-based compensation" }, { "detail": "$66.82 average, implying only ~1% upside from $65.87", "metric": "Sell-side consensus price target" }, { "detail": "Touted at $1.6bn valuation; TEM internally ascribes its Pathos stake as worthless on balance sheet", "metric": "Pathos valuation gap" }, { "detail": "TEM recognized ~$95M in TCV equal to the ¥15bn (~$95M) capital it contributed to SB Tempus", "metric": "SoftBank JV round-trip" }, { "detail": "AZ forfeited warrant to buy $100M of TEM stock at IPO price one year before expiry", "metric": "AstraZeneca warrant" }, { "detail": "Lefkofsky ~$360M, NEA ~$162M, Leonsis ~$17M of TEM stock sold", "metric": "Insider selling post-IPO" }, { "detail": "Implied equity value $4.45-$6.11bn vs. $11.4bn market cap; -48% to -62% per share", "metric": "Valuation downside" } ], "closingAsk": "Investors should sell or avoid Tempus AI stock given 50-60% estimated downside risk from aggressive accounting, related-party dealings and unsustainable practices.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:03:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 114.362946, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Valuing core, acquired and related-party revenue separately yields an implied $24.87-$34.15 share price versus $65.87, implying 48-62% downside (base-case mid ~50-60%).", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "AI branding masks reality: AI revenue only $12.4M, under 2% of $693M total", "Management and board tied to prior restatements, bankruptcies and SEC fraud cases", "TCV inflated ~$600M via opt-ins, round-tripped JV cash and related-party Pathos deal" ], "scqaSituation": "Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) is a $12bn precision-medicine company rebranded from Tempus Labs, pitching itself as an AI-driven diagnostics and data platform led by Groupon founder Eric Lefkofsky.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point issues a Strong Sell on Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM), arguing the rebrand from Tempus Labs is a promotional repackaging: AI revenue was just $12.4M in 2024, under 2% of the $693M total. CEO Eric Lefkofsky and partner Brad Keywell have a track record of shareholder destruction at Starbelly/HA-LO, Groupon and InnerWorkings, and the audit committee, CAO and directors are linked to multiple restatements and SEC fraud cases. Spruce Point flags a $250M Google Cloud debt-forgiveness structure inflating Adjusted EBITDA by 320bps, a $200M Pathos/AstraZeneca deal that looks like round-tripping through a Lefkofsky-related party, a SoftBank JV recycling contributed capital as revenue, and ~$600M of inflated Total Contract Value. Insider selling, rising debt post-Ambry and a 77%-of-revenue stock-comp burn imply 50-60% downside versus the current $65.87 share price.", "primaryDemands": [ "Investors should sell or avoid TEM shares; Spruce Point issues a 'Strong Sell' opinion", "Scrutinize aggressive accounting around Total Contract Value, Google Cloud debt forgiveness and related-party deals", "Question board and audit committee oversight given insiders' ties to prior restatements and SEC fraud cases", "Reassess AI branding claims against minimal AI-derived revenue (~2% of total)" ], "scqaResolution": "Spruce Point issues a 'Strong Sell' opinion, urging investors to discount headline TCV and Adjusted EBITDA, scrutinize Pathos/AstraZeneca, SoftBank JV and Google Cloud accounting, and reassess the AI narrative.", "thesisOneLiner": "Tempus AI is an AI-branded diagnostics roll-up whose tiny AI revenue, Lefkofsky-linked restatement history, and round-tripped related-party deals imply 50-60% downside to ~$25-34/share.", "precedentsCited": [ "InnerWorkings (INWK) — Lefkofsky/Keywell promotion, restatement and -92% decline", "Starbelly.com / HA-LO Industries (HMK) — dotcom-era Lefkofsky/Keywell venture that filed for bankruptcy", "Groupon (GRPN) — prior Lefkofsky promotion, ~50% revenue restatement and -95% post-IPO decline", "C3.ai (AI) — prior Spruce Point AI-hype short with -60% drawdown", "AOL Time Warner — SEC revenue round-tripping case involving director Ted Leonsis", "Vonage (VG) — restatement under audit-committee member Peter Barris", "GeneDx / Sema4 (WGS) — Grizzly Research fraud allegations tied to Pathos CSO" ], "scqaComplication": "Only ~2% of revenue is AI-derived, the CEO, CAO, audit chair and directors are tied to prior restatements and SEC fraud cases, and growth rests on round-tripped related-party deals, a Google debt cookie jar, and inflated TCV.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 3, 6, 71, 72, 76 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "C3.ai", "BigBear.ai 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EBITDA and the Company's path to meeting its FY25 guidance. Specifically, Tempus nets the debt's principal reduction against cloud and software expenses in SG&A based on usage. This non-cash operating benefit, totaling $25.6 million over the last twelve months, directly inflates reported Adj. EBITDA. Without this adjustment, LTM Adj. EBITDA would have been ($102.6 million), rather than the reported ($77.0 million), and Adj. EBITDA margin would be -320 bps lower. We do not know the exact usage mechanism driving the debt principal reduction, but Tempus could be creating a cookie jar to achieve its inflection to $5 million of positive Adj. EBITDA for FY25. 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With overall guidance rising by only a fraction of this amount, we believe it reveals a significant shortfall in the core genomics and data businesses. This discrepancy strongly suggests that the Company's fundamental operations are underperforming relative to prior expectations. It further supports the view that headline growth is being driven by acquisitions, related-party transactions, and financial maneuvers, rather than by robust organic growth in its main business lines. 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The technology wrapped around that Tesla was just demonstrably better than other EVs 5 or 10 years ago which led in large part to the growth. It's the same things with Tempus. We have a technological advantage over our competitors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:27:03.559+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "83c79864-904d-458d-b702-6816a5dd3ce5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.66 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I think over time, these kind of models that make EKGs smarter... They will be reimbursed and I suspect if Tempus is ever a really big company, like as big as Tesla, it's because we have lots of these models and they are routinely being reimbursed. Given what I saw a few weeks ago, I think that will happen, it's just a matter of time.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:27:03.559+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "abd7ef31-5c09-4286-a31e-f982d4573338", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"I think Tempus will have its Nvidia moment, this moment where people are like, wait a minute, like how big could that be? 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The company recorded its greatest levels of innovation and growth under his leadership, and in May 2010, AOL named a central office tower The Leonsis Creative Center in his honor. 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In November 2011, Mr. Leonsis co-founded Revolution Growth, a private investment firm, and has served as a General Partner thereof since that time. Since 1999, Mr. Leonsis has served as the Founder, Chairman, Majority Owner, and Chief Executive Officer of Monumental Sports & Entertainment, LLC, a sports, entertainment, media, and technology company that owns the NBA’s Washington Wizards, the NHL’s Washington Capitals, the WNBA’s Washington Mystics, the Capital City Go-Go, Wizards District Gaming, Caps Gaming, and the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. Mr. Leonsis has served as a director of American Express Co. since July 2010. Mr. Leonsis has also served on the board of directors of Groupon, Inc. since June 2009, including as Chairman of the board of directors from August 2013 to November 2015 and, again, since June 2020. Mr. Leonsis also serves on the boards of directors of several private internet and technology companies, as well as charitable organizations. Mr. Leonsis holds a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University. 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"019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:19.174+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0a36f87e-9906-4377-a563-809b20eac050", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Material Weakness Identified At The End of Mr. Barris’ Term On The Board", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:19.174+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "56375e45-7254-474a-84a9-0ee8f82e233a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We have identified a material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting. A material weakness is defined by the standards issued by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board as a deficiency or a combination of deficiencies in internal control over financial reporting such that there is reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of the annual or interim financial statements will not be prevented or detected. We did not effectively design and perform control activities to prevent or detect material misstatements that might exist in our presentation of the income tax consequences associated with the impairment of goodwill, intangible and long-lived assets. Specifically, the review performed by our corporate accounting and tax group of the consolidated tax processes and procedures did not provide for adequate and timely identification of the income tax impacts arising from the impairments. In light of this material weakness in internal control over financial reporting, we concluded that our financial reporting controls and procedures were not effective as of December 31, 2012. For further discussion please see Item 9A(b) below.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:19.174+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "544be9d8-8587-4b7f-9ff3-d80793370919", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As previously disclosed in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, Inteliquent reported a $75.3 million impairment charge, and a net loss of $78.1 million, in each case for the year ended December 31, 2012. During the second quarter of 2013, the Board of Directors of the Company determined that an internal investigation of whether such impairment charge was overstated should be undertaken by the Audit Committee with the assistance of independent outside professionals. During the same time period, the Board of Directors also determined that the Audit Committee, with the assistance of independent outside professionals, should conduct an internal investigation of the Company’s financial forecasting practices during the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. As a result of the ongoing internal investigation, Inteliquent has postponed its scheduled second quarter earnings call, which had been set for Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:19.174+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "71234416-72b4-4321-97c9-1449e32ad504", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Director Peter Barris sat on the Board of Neutral Tandem (Nasdaq: TNDM) which rebranded as Inteliquent (Nasdaq: IQNT). His firm NEA was a major equity sponsor at the IPO but fully exited the position. He served on the Board from 2003 through May 2012 and was on the Audit Committee through early 2011. Shortly after his departure, the company announced an internal investigation into its financial reporting and accounting practices. A material weakness of internal controls was revealed, and it received a Nasdaq listing compliance letter. The investigation did not result in a restatement. Mr. Barris was also involved with Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG) where he served on the Board and was a major shareholder. Vonage was sued over its IPO flop and restated financial results in 2008 while reporting a material weakness. Vonage’s Chairman and largest shareholder was Jeffrey Citron, whom the SEC charged earlier with securities fraud.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:19.174+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8db89d20-fba0-4623-b447-29353f33372b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We have identified a material weakness in our internal controls over financial reporting. 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restatement and resulted in revenue recognition fraud allegations by the SEC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:59:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb91-749f-a6ae-f575ae1f0d45", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Tempus's Chief Accounting Officer previously served as the Corporate Controller (2018 - May 2019) and Chief Accounting Officer (May 2019 - May 2021) at RTI Surgical (Nasdaq: RTIX) (which was renamed Surgalign, Nasdaq: SRGA). During his employment period, Surgalign had an accounting scandal which resulted in a multi-period financial restatement and resulted in revenue recognition fraud allegations by the SEC. Mr. Bartolucci was not specifically named in the complaint and some of the company's misconduct pre-dated his arrival.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:19.673+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "12c1a9f0-93f2-4e3a-8ff7-981a7b08401b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.39 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "SEC Charges Surgical Implant Manufacturer Surgalign and Former Senior Executives with Accounting and Disclosure Fraud. Surgalign Holdings to Pay $2 Million to Settle Charges. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE | 2022-137. Washington D.C., Aug. 3, 2022 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Surgalign Holdings, Inc., formerly RTI Surgical Holdings, Inc., and former executives Brian Hutchison and Robert Jordheim for masking disappointing sales numbers by shipping future orders ahead of schedule to accelerate, or \"pull forward,\" revenue and then failing to disclose this practice to investors. In June 2020, RTI restated its public financial statements from 2014 through 2019 to correct errors caused by this practice. As alleged by the SEC, RTI's reliance on pull-forwards cannibalized future revenue streams and damaged important customer relationships while the company reassured investors it was meeting revenue guidance. 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While we assume that the patients are not real, but rather used for illustration purposes, we are alarmed that the software is so poorly constructed that it would allow two different birth dates for the same patient. 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"components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "This provision does not pass our smell test. Why should AstraZeneca's commitment to buy TEM's products and services depend at all on TEM's share price rather than true economic demand for its products and services and the perceived value being delivered?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:59:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb91-749f-a6b0-1ab60bb1a15f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As previously disclosed, in November 2021, we entered into the MSA with, and issued a warrant to, AstraZeneca. Under the MSA, we agreed, on a non-exclusive basis, to provide AstraZeneca with certain of our products and services, including licensed data, sequencing, clinical trial matching, organoid modeling services, algorithm development, and others. In exchange for certain discounted prices, AstraZeneca has committed to spend a minimum of $220 million on such products and services during the term of the MSA. The term of the MSA will continue through December 31, 2028, unless terminated sooner. The minimum commitment may increase from $220 million to $320 million through December 2028 if the average closing price of our Class A common stock exceeds two times the price of shares of Class A common stock in our initial public offering, or the IPO, for any 30-day trading period following the one-year anniversary of our IPO. Under the warrant, AstraZeneca had the right to purchase up to $100 million in shares of our Class A common stock at an exercise price equal to $37.00 per share, representing the public offering price in our IPO. The warrant was exercisable through December 31, 2026. The warrant was automatically cancelled and terminated for no consideration as AstraZeneca declined to extend its financial commitment before December 31, 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.332+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "19b901d8-b8f7-4425-8503-aaa1afbb24f2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Notice carefully that the agreement with AstraZeneca has a provision that it may increase its minimum commitment with Tempus if the share price exceeds two times TEM’s IPO price for any 30-day period following the IPO. This provision does not pass our smell test. Why should AstraZeneca’s commitment to buy TEM’s products and services depend at all on TEM’s share price rather than true economic demand for its products and services and the perceived value being delivered? AstraZeneca had a warrant which it forfeited. In theory had the stock price doubled and it exercised the warrant, it would have received a large financial windfall. Recycling gains made from selling TEM’s share price into purchasing more products and services from Tempus appears to be a weak justification for increasing the commitment. We believe that AstraZeneca’s increased financial commitment should be tied to the efficacy and value delivered from the products and services and not be even remotely a function of TEM’s share price.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.332+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "23ca50bd-11cf-4a70-ab5b-9fdc5f31743c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "As previously disclosed, in November 2021, we entered into the MSA with, and issued a warrant to, AstraZeneca. Under the MSA, we agreed, on a non-exclusive basis, to provide AstraZeneca with certain of our products and services... The minimum commitment may increase from $220 million to $320 million through December 2028 if the average closing price of our Class A common stock exceeds two times the price of shares of Class A common stock in our initial public offering... The warrant was automatically cancelled and terminated for no consideration as AstraZeneca declined to extend its financial commitment before December 31, 2024. — TEM SEC filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:59:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb91-749f-a6b0-1e3d40af36be", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: TEM SEC filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.332+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "219bbdd0-c8af-4ca9-b273-d21e052dc2a9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Dubious Deal-Making And Financial Commitments From AstraZeneca", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.332+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a01d1f51-43f1-4fe6-a84d-ca1f0676528f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "title", "text": "AstraZeneca and Tempus History", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb09-739d-900c-815b0d9ac526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "subtitle", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.332+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7becbc1e-7117-4c97-bff5-9f0911cfb323", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Action Titles", "slug": "action-titles", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Any decision-grade deliverable — strategy recommendation, board update, investment memo, M&A review, post-mortem — where the reader is being asked to agree, decide, or act and will skim the title bar at speed.", "canonId": "019dd956-ac70-700b-a608-ba58e78f5dcc", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "816dad3c-9983-41c1-a86e-978ebd582841", "description": "The McKinsey-bred discipline of writing every slide title as a complete declarative sentence with a verb and an insight, not a topic label. Each title is a sub-claim that ladders up to the deck's governing thought; read in sequence, the titles reconstruct the executive summary.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "019de87d-f3ad-77ec-92a7-2ab08503633f", "evidence": "Title labels deal 'Dubious'", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": "Any decision-grade deliverable — strategy recommendation, board update, investment memo, M&A review, post-mortem — where the reader is being asked to agree, decide, or act and will skim the title bar at speed.", "confidence": 86, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "whyItWorks": "Solves two failure modes at once. (1) The buried claim: action titles place the conclusion on the page before any analysis is read, so a busy reader doesn't reverse-engineer it from the chart. (2) The spineless deck: because each title is a claim, slides have to ladder up to the governing thought; logical gaps become visible as topic-shaped titles in a sequence that no longer reads as a story.", "antipattern": "Topic labels disguised as titles — Volume by quarter, Key findings, Pricing strategy, Margins have been impacted. No verb, or a passive verb with no agent, or a fact (Revenue grew 12%) without the so-what. Also: titles that overreach the chart's evidence, multi-claim X-grew-but-Y-fell welded titles, and mechanical repetition of the same X-drove-Y template across the deck.", "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": "Forces the deck to carry its argument in the title bar so a senior reader can extract the recommendation without opening a single slide; converts a binder of topics into a navigable pyramid where every slide is a node defending the apex." }, { "tool": { "name": "Authority Bias", "slug": "authority-bias", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-c38d-70b9-a284-b2b479763356", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Expert opinions are weighted more heavily - cite credible sources", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Architect", "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "019de87d-f3d8-72b9-b556-55556d562874", "evidence": "Direct SEC filing quote", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "2209a1c4-e87a-4a20-a2bb-8110f77fa121", "evidence": "Critique of financial deal structure as 'dubious' and failing the 'smell test'.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.332+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 69, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": 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"beatId": "019de87d-e501-7638-91f7-175bec763c5d", "matchId": "019de87d-e4a4-7400-95d8-3e3127644504", "beatType": null, "evidence": "Mounting evidence across insiders, AI, partnerships, accounting, billing.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": false, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 55 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 41, "from": 32, "loop": { "name": "10_iceberg", "slug": "10-iceberg", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Consulting, complex problem solving, organizational change", "canonId": "019dd956-69f4-738c-852a-643798da0899", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Symptom (Visible) -> The System (Hidden) -> The Root Cause", "description": "Reveal that the visible problem is merely a symptom of a deeper root cause", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "019de87d-e60e-7069-8d2e-28f4aad62fde", "evidence": "Surface (AZ/GSK/SoftBank deals) vs hidden system (Pathos money cycle, debt covenant pressure).", "position": 4, "objective": "Show partnerships are surface-level — round-tripping underneath", "confidence": 80, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 11:40:57.281131+00", "model": "claude-cli", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 34, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a red-bordered callout box to highlight the core thesis and a table to provide chronological evidence of the relationship's decline.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 55, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 1826, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide uses a red-bordered callout box to highlight the core thesis and a table to provide chronological evidence of the relationship's decline.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.075+00", "seconds": 3.859, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-b43d907adb44/34", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-b43d907adb44", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-b43d907adb44#slide-34", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-b43d907adb44.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Although Tempus continues to portray its relationship with AstraZeneca (\"AZN\"), a large and significant customer, as robust and suggests that the recent agreement with Pathos is an extension of its collaboration with AstraZeneca, the facts tell a different story. We believe the partnership, which began in November 2021 with a five-year, $200 million Master Services Agreement (\"MSA\"), has deteriorated over time. Amendments extended the term to nearly seven years and increased the total commitment to $220 million, but AstraZeneca's reluctance to deepen its financial stake became clear when it declined to increase its commitment by an additional $100 million before the end of 2024 and forfeited a warrant to purchase stock at $37 per share with one year of time value remaining. The April 2025 arrangement, in which $35 million of AstraZeneca's commitment is paid to Pathos through Tempus, further reduced AstraZeneca's contractual liability to Tempus, with Tempus receiving no direct economic benefit from this pass-through payment. Contrary to the Company's messaging, this latest deal with Pathos is not a true extension of the AstraZeneca relationship, but rather a restructuring that we believe underscores the ongoing erosion of the commitment between Tempus and AstraZeneca.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:20.075+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c7d70672-948f-4329-bb3a-f86d2e007426", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Contrary to the Company's messaging, this latest deal with Pathos is not a true extension of the AstraZeneca relationship, but rather a restructuring that we believe underscores the ongoing erosion of the commitment between Tempus and AstraZeneca.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:59:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb91-749f-a6af-ae0dc486b84b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Original MSA between AstraZeneca and Tempus Labs, 1st Amendment, 2nd Amendment, 3rd Amendment, TEM FY24 10K, TEM 8-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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(“Pathos”), which was subsequently amended on February 12, 2024, for the purpose of furthering the commercialization efforts of drug development. The Company received a warrant to purchase 23,456,790 shares, or approximately 15% of the current outstanding equity in Pathos, for $0.0125 per share.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:25:24.825+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dc847227-7eaa-4b77-b41f-87a2758003f2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: TEM Q1’25 10-Q, Pathos Series C Raise, “Pathos AI secures $365M Series D to Fund Novo Nordisk Solid Tumor Drug”, Fierce Biotech, May 15, 2025. Note: Tempus discloses that marketable securities are publicly traded equities. Therefore, we do not believe the Pathos warrant is included in the $67m account.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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While the duration of the collaboration has been extended by two years, the guaranteed financial commitments from AstraZeneca have increased only modestly-from $200 million to $220 million. Importantly, $100 million of the stated $320 million commitment is not guaranteed. As detailed on the next slide, AstraZeneca also chose to forgo a significant equity option that would have been available had it committed to the additional $100 million under the MC Extension Option prior to December 31, 2024. 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(1) It is agreed and acknowledged that the Financial Commitment for a total amount of $200M [subsequently revised to $220M, unless and until AstraZeneca exercises its option to extend the Financial Commitment for an additional $100M (the “MC Extension Option”). The exercise period for the MC Extension Option will be from the Effective Date to the earlier of (i) December 31, 2024 or (ii) the date that AstraZeneca exercises the Warrant. AstraZeneca will exercise the MC Extension Option either a written notice to Tempus or by exercising the Warrant. 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physician judgment and patient choice, while using compliance as a convenient excuse.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:59:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb91-749f-a6b2-b6f0ae6af577", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.21, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe Ambry is steering doctors and patients into using +RNAinsight, rather than giving them a reasonable, flexible option. There is no technical barrier to simply collecting an extra RNA tube (e.g. RNA shield) at the initial blood draw and holding it for reflexive testing if the DNA results are ambiguous or inconclusive. This straightforward approach would eliminate the main compliance issue Ambry cites: patients failing to return for a second blood draw. Instead, Ambry insists on running RNA testing concurrently and refuses to offer reflex testing, effectively mandating +RNAinsight upfront regardless of clinical necessity. 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With this approach, we observed two critical limitations. First, deep intronic pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants that were clinically actionable still remained undetected. Second, there was a 90% lost to follow-up rate for patients who were offered additional RNA studies due to the need to send in an additional sample. 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