{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557", "slug": "1b5c4ae912d9", "title": "Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY)", "subtitle": "Spruce Point Capital Management · 2025-02", "author": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "date": "2025-02-19 00:00:00", "pageCount": 43, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Dycom Industries, Inc.", "targetTicker": "DY", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557", "slug": "1b5c4ae912d9", "title": "Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY)", "rawTitle": "67b5e35c6934f62e1ac3a84e dy research thesis 2 19 2025", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "authorDisplay": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2025-02-67b5e35c6934f62e1ac3a84e_dy_research_thesis_2-19-2025.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2025-02-19 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2025-02-19 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 21:59:35+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 43, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Dycom Industries, Inc.", "targetTicker": "DY", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/1b5c4ae912d9", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 163.80725502967834 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 43, "pagesIndexed": 43, "pagesWithImages": 43, "pagesWithMetadata": 43, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 274, "chartCount": 12, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 6, "documentToolMatches": 4, "frameworkMatches": 32, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "e66dc187-9c00-4ddf-a5cc-3f395f14484b", "evidence": "The document follows the problem-agitate-solution narrative shape, highlighting various problems with DY, agitating them, and implying a solution (selling the stock).", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:00.472452+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 9, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 4, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "66355512-f48c-4493-ae4f-56d4258fcc14", "matchId": "e66dc187-9c00-4ddf-a5cc-3f395f14484b", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies various problems with DY, including growing pressures and a troubled business.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 24, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 10, "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatId": "38bef52a-4142-4519-9fb6-8c0be13ac0cd", "matchId": "e66dc187-9c00-4ddf-a5cc-3f395f14484b", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document agitates the problems with DY, highlighting issues such as DSO expansion, revenue recognition errors/revisions, and potential cash flow embellishment.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 43, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 38, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "23201a71-e21f-41c6-b95f-3fc7a3bac731", "matchId": "e66dc187-9c00-4ddf-a5cc-3f395f14484b", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document implies a solution, suggesting a 35% - 55% downside risk to DY's share price.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 4, "loop": { "name": "11_golden_circle", "slug": "11-golden-circle", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Visionary leadership, brand positioning, mission statements", "canonId": "019dd956-6a50-7202-882d-505fcb9922ed", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Why (Belief) -> The How (Process) -> The What (Result)", "description": "Invert the typical pitch by starting with why you exist, rather than what you do", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Vision", "categorySlug": "vision" }, "matchId": "e3d1f8b2-261d-483d-ac87-7c959d8358ff", "evidence": "The document presents a 'strong sell' opinion on DY, implying a problem with the company.", "position": 0, "objective": "What is the situation with DY?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:00.651985+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 43, "from": 38, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "e1a63e2a-9942-4c98-ba61-d28a34f3ed9d", "evidence": "The document implies that not selling DY could result in significant financial losses.", "position": 1, "objective": "What is the cost of not selling DY?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:00.696543+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 24, "from": 10, "loop": { "name": "40_mece_breakdown", "slug": "40-mece-breakdown", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-763c-765e-8b68-6ee3ae1ef184", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage", "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Consulting Framework", "categorySlug": "consulting-framework" }, "matchId": "02225060-c029-4bb4-a388-8bd977fde175", "evidence": "The document breaks down various concerns with DY, including financial and business issues.", "position": 2, "objective": "What are the specific concerns with DY?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:00.739086+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "10b9fe73-e15e-4964-8ac2-a53641f595f8", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "a1aa4b0e-5a18-4d42-85fd-87d4887ddd12", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "aee8111b-a9db-4bdb-a447-85ab04141644", "evidence": "Steve Nielsen (former CEO/Chairman); Heather Floyd (current CAO); Sharon Villaverde (former CAO); Carmen Sabater (board member)", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "5ab77315-fd3a-4810-902d-24a7de2296ed", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "AIDA Model", "slug": "aida-model", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-86fc-773c-813f-d416714b8413", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Attention, Interest, Desire, Action - classic persuasion sequence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "33e058cc-a2f7-408e-9acb-9e2421b49984", "evidence": "The slide presents a critical analysis of DY's story and the consensus among lower-tier brokers, attempting to capture the audience's attention and interest.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:06:53.892316+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 39, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Call-and-Response", "slug": "call-and-response", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-a254-7484-a9b7-721eb21444a5", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Engaging audience by creating pattern they complete mentally", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Loop", "categorySlug": "loop" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "c5d7463b-157f-44d1-a947-987b067c9cf3", "evidence": "The slide uses a callout to present a primary message and then provides a response to it, creating a call-and-response structure.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:06:53.930159+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 39, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "e8ffa395-f143-40e3-851b-7e0325a5eace", "evidence": "Slide title is 'Executive Summary'", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:01.585+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "frameworkName": "executive-summary" }, { "matchId": "32061ac7-6c7a-4c9b-a6c8-46d4d2233fda", "evidence": "The slide explicitly details forensic accounting concerns, related-party transaction allegations, and regulatory findings of fraudulent conduct.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:03.334+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "56d73ffb-c007-48c1-9fa5-9548d4b1c780", "evidence": "The slide frames Dycom as the subject of a critical investment thesis, listing specific red flags.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:04.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" }, { "matchId": "54d4671f-ffe8-47dc-89e7-a258b015eee6", "evidence": "The slide explicitly addresses and refutes Dycom's positive framing of customer consolidation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:04.199+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" }, { "matchId": "034858b9-c944-419d-b2e6-3d74ec0f05f8", "evidence": "Contrasting CEO quotes with actual DSO data points to expose a narrative gap.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:04.577+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" }, { "matchId": "dda6d059-a83c-44fc-aa63-2d43dd9a4856", "evidence": "Highlights lack of transparency in financial reporting as a red flag for potential manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:03.823+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 12, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "8252ede7-5acd-496f-8fa6-bd6630cd6503", "evidence": "The slide explicitly points out a financial inconsistency (DSO vs. Bad Debt Allowance) to suggest potential accounting manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:08.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "5a7ac070-af8b-4e94-b7ce-fbe9b2884af0", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies 'revenue recognition anomalies' and 'errors/revisions' to build a case for financial misstatement.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:04.008+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "200ffe3e-34a9-4bcc-84f5-2f69e7e14f58", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames a change in accounting disclosure as a 'potential lever' for 'embellishment'.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:11.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": 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], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Spruce Point short-report template: forensic accounting + governance angle + peer-multiple rerating. Cover image is a literal visual pun ('Too Close A Connection') showing telecom workers, a bald eagle and rats around a fiber trench. Strongest narrative beats are (a) the brother-to-brother Frontier related-party angle backed by Mark Nielsen's own LinkedIn post citing Steve, and (b) the CAO biography contradiction (BS in Engineering vs Accounting) plus DUI police-report quote. Dense yellow-callout + red-underline rhetoric throughout. No stake disclosure beyond standard short interest acknowledgement in disclaimer. Treated as initial_thesis — first public Spruce Point report on DY in this folder.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "35%-55% to $79.60-$118.66 vs. $174.67 at 2/19/2025", "metric": "Long-term share price downside" }, { "detail": "~$1bn, growing 335% to 5.4% of LTM contract revenue", "metric": "Cumulative Frontier revenue since 2020" }, { "detail": "Risen from ~108 days (Q4'22) to 120-day range; written explanations dropped from 10-K/10-Q in late 2022", "metric": "Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)" }, { "detail": "5-year average -3.3%; FY2024 missed by -18.5% and YTD2025 est. -17.5% with no mid-year guide cuts", "metric": "Capex guidance variance" }, { "detail": "~90% of contract revenue from telecom clients; ~14% from clients in active M&A", "metric": "Telecom client revenue concentration" }, { "detail": "~80% of revenue under cancellable MSAs vs peer average much lower", "metric": "Master Service Agreement exposure" }, { "detail": "Expanded from 9-10% (2020) to mid-12% range; management walked back prior 11% bogey", "metric": "EBITDA margin" }, { "detail": "Estimated decline from ~$300m (2020) to ~$185m (2024)", "metric": "Wireless revenue" }, { "detail": "$150m for $250-275m revenue and $1bn backlog = 0.55x sales / 0.15x backlog with no PP&E", "metric": "Black & Veatch acquisition multiple" }, { "detail": "DY 30.5x vs peer average 19.5x; 2025E EV/Sales 1.2x vs peer average 1.1x", "metric": "2025E P/E" }, { "detail": "DY 5.0% (10-yr avg) vs peer average 2.1%", "metric": "Capex margin" }, { "detail": "5 lower-tier brokers, 100% Buy ratings, $220.80 average target (+26% implied upside)", "metric": "Sell-side coverage" } ], "closingAsk": "Reprice Dycom to a discount versus MSA-heavy contracting peers and position for 35%–55% downside as the premium multiple compresses under accounting and governance scrutiny.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:59:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 163.80725, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Spruce Point models 35%–55% long-term downside to a $79.60–$118.66 share price (vs. $174.67 at publication), versus the consensus $220.80 target implying 26% upside.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "$1bn of revenue booked with Frontier — whose named exec is the CEO's brother — looks like an undisclosed related party", "Two recent CAOs and a new board member are tied to prior restatements and material control weaknesses", "DY trades at 30.5x P/E vs 19.5x peers despite weaker MSA-heavy mix and 2x peer capex needs" ], "scqaSituation": "Dycom is a $6bn specialty contractor that derives ~90% of revenue from telecom clients (AT&T, Lumen, Comcast, Verizon, Frontier), with ~80% under cancellable Master Service Agreements, and has rallied 400%+ since 2020 while its customers declined.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point issues a Strong Sell on Dycom Industries (NYSE: DY), arguing the $6bn telecom contractor's recent outperformance hides serious accounting and governance red flags. Roughly $1bn of revenue booked since 2020 has come from Frontier Communications, where named executive Mark Nielsen is the brother of long-time DY CEO and Chairman Steve Nielsen, yet DY discloses no related party transactions; Connecticut regulators have already cited the two firms together for fraudulent fiber installations. DSO has spiked from 108 to 120+ days with explanations dropped from 10-Ks, capex has missed guidance by ~18% two years running, and the $150m Black & Veatch deal carries no PP&E and references unpaid invoices. Two recent Chief Accounting Officers and a new board member each carry restatement or SEC-investigation baggage. Spruce Point models 35–55% downside to $79.60–$118.66 as DY's 30.5x P/E rerates toward MSA-heavy peers at 19.5x.", "primaryDemands": [ "Investors should treat DY's premium multiple as unjustified and reposition short / underweight", "Board and audit committee should investigate Frontier dealings as a related party transaction", "Audit committee should scrutinize CAO appointments given prior restatement history", "Management should clarify DSO trajectory, capex misforecasting, and Black & Veatch deal economics" ], "scqaResolution": "Investors should reject the unanimous Street buy thesis, reprice DY toward MSA-heavy contracting peers at ~0.7–0.9x sales, and short or underweight the stock pending board and auditor scrutiny of the Frontier relationship.", "thesisOneLiner": "Dycom's premium multiple masks a forensic minefield — undisclosed Frontier related-party revenue, accounting officers with restatement histories, and unexplained DSO expansion — implying 35–55% downside to $79–$119.", "precedentsCited": [ "MasTec 2000–2002 restatement and SEC investigation under board member Sabater", "KLX Inc. material weakness and restatement under CAO Heather Floyd", "Natus Medical accounting concerns under CAO Sharon Villaverde", "Frontier $8.5M FTC fine for deceiving customers", "Connecticut PURA $5M fine on Frontier and Dycom subsidiary Parkside Utility for fake conduit" ], "scqaComplication": "Roughly $1bn of revenue since 2020 has been booked with Frontier — where the CEO's brother is a named executive — without related party disclosure; DSO has spiked unexplained, capex repeatedly misses guidance, and successive Chief Accounting Officers carry prior restatement and material-weakness records.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 9, 11, 27, 41 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Quanta Services (PWR)", "EMCOR Group (EME)", "AECOM (ACM)", "MasTec (MTZ)", "Valmont (VMI)", "Primoris Services (PRIM)", "Granite Construction (GVA)", "Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)", 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Dycom Does Not Consider Dealings With Its Long-Time CEO & Chairman And His Brother As A Related Party: Frontier has been one of DY’s fastest growing customers...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:03.334+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b42ddae0-6888-47f1-9c4e-27672804ab33", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.14, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Issues “Strong Sell” Opinion On Dycom Industries (DY) And Sees 35% - 55% Long-Term Downside Risk", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:03.334+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b599cb50-4fdb-46a1-b6bd-055f93fa8553", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "32061ac7-6c7a-4c9b-a6c8-46d4d2233fda", "evidence": "The slide explicitly details forensic accounting concerns, related-party transaction allegations, and regulatory findings of fraudulent conduct.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:03.334+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 9, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 4, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "66355512-f48c-4493-ae4f-56d4258fcc14", "matchId": "e66dc187-9c00-4ddf-a5cc-3f395f14484b", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies various problems with DY, including growing pressures and a troubled business.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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"model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:04.225+00", "seconds": 3.698, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557/6", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557#slide-6", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe DY exhibits many hallmarks of increased financial stress.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element 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Because we get them right now, it's a superior product. And we don't see a need right now for adding any fiber to that footprint.\" — Verizon Q2 2023. \"So as Mike led off with, right away, we may have been a little too optimistic with what we're seeing more in the price-conscious segment in the earlier part of the quarter in December. But the main point bringing us back up, it's intensely competitive in all segments. So it's little bit of a shift, but it's -- you have fixed wireless, while it's leveled, they're still out there aggressively marketing, and you got fiber that's overbuilding. So that has continued.\" — Comcast Jan 30, 2025. \"We literally just launched this quarter our new AT&T business, fixed wireless product. And our goal is, it's a nationwide launch. We think it's a great product for small- to medium-sized businesses done with consumption patterns of home where you're playing video games or watching video. We think it's a great solution in that regard. 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Stratton and Nick Jeffery.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:06.539+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5abc206f-7880-4a0a-843e-604cb1baa795", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Consumers increasingly see the value of a fiber broadband connection and the utility of a gig plus sort of in terms of what serves their household.\" — John Stratton, Executive Chairman of the Board, Frontier Communications - May 2024; \"We grew ARPU because our customers are increasingly choosing gigabit speeds and value-added services to enhance their Internet experience, and they're willing to pay for it. As a result, we accelerated fiber revenue growth to 13% and lifted our overall company revenue growth to 2% year-over-year.\" — Nick Jeffery, CEO, Frontier Communications - August 2024; \"Firstly, building 1.3 million fiber passings this year will mean we will have delivered by the end of the year exactly the build ambition that we set out at emergence 2 years ago. And secondly, we are actually accelerating our build this year...The way to think about our build ambition of 1.3 million homes passed this year is at a minimum build from here on. We think we've got plenty of operational gas in the tank to further accelerate if and when the conditions are ready for that.\" — Nick Jeffery, CEO, Frontier Communications, February 2023; \"We are moving fast on 2 of our key value drivers, building and selling fiber and it's translating into financial growth. If you look at the left-hand side, you will see that our fiber passings are up 31% year-over-year. 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"components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point expresses concerns with Lumen and Charter Communications' revenue quality. 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The consensus price target of $220 per share (implying 26% upside) with a unanimous “Buy” rating.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:13.947+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9daf758-741a-4358-b6c5-747f4300d0a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "DY's story is followed by a roster of lower-tier brokers whom we believe have failed to conduct a rigorous forensic analysis that challenges the glowing narrative being spun by the Company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98c1-7614303dbc2b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.44, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Rating Distribution pie chart showing 100% Buy rating.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pie chart", "slug": "pie", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ffdb-71bb-a800-5c5ab9f1c373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pie", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:13.947+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a5b6ca9a-f541-4fee-a87e-ccd5a00062a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "analyst consensus: 100%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98c1-7aefe86aad3b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg and Spruce Point analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 43, "from": 38, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "e1a63e2a-9942-4c98-ba61-d28a34f3ed9d", "evidence": "The document implies that not selling DY could result in significant financial losses.", "position": 1, "objective": "What is the cost of not selling DY?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:00.696543+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 40, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a comparison table to argue that Dycom's valuation is stretched due to its reliance on MSAs and high customer concentration.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "valuation_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "valuation_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-12c3-77cd-8474-6cd39cf844cb", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 51, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 775, "nDataPoints": 150, "notes": "The slide uses a comparison table to argue that Dycom's valuation is stretched due to its reliance on MSAs and high customer concentration.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:07.965+00", "seconds": 2.54, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557/40", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557#slide-40", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a7a7a3284557.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "These factors support our case that Dycom should trade at a lower valuation to peers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98c1-927bb6c1aac5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "P/E: 30.5x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:51:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee38-728b-98c1-9742e0df9a57", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We evaluate DY's valuation relative to construction and contracting service companies. We point out that companies that use Master Service Agreements (MSAs), or contracts with no commitments and which are easily cancellable, generally trade at lower multiples. Dycom has the highest exposure to MSAs. Furthermore, Dycom has three customers >10% vs. peers that have none or just one. 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Includes companies that reference MSAs in their SEC filings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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pressures.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:09.053+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e2ba0bbb-8c33-4807-b18d-d85e2f8a70ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point believes there is significant downside risk to DY’s share price as its premium multiple is reconsidered by institutional investors in the face of our strong evidence to indicate that it is masking growing 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MSA cancellation risk, wireless exposure, governance/leadership risks, and DSO issues.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:09.053+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e107925-1810-4193-bd62-6bee0d6b835f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "share price: -54%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", 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