{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e", "slug": "aeaf881b8cf7", "title": "Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD)", "subtitle": "Spruce Point Capital Management · 2025-01", "author": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "date": "2025-01-23 00:00:00", "pageCount": 70, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Construction Partners, Inc.", "targetTicker": "ROAD", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e", "slug": "aeaf881b8cf7", "title": "Construction Partners, Inc. 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Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 28, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 10, "name": "Evidence & Proof", "beatId": "eb5544f2-70c6-4081-af35-c0d5fd562c27", "matchId": "64528755-f210-4110-9faa-888d39f55340", "beatType": { "name": "Evidence & Proof", "slug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-07b1-7688-8e1e-7637fec3802a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck presents a series of data points and analysis to support the author's claims, including competitive analysis, financial disclosures, and industry benchmarks.", "position": 3, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Evidence", "slug": "evidence", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-03f9-772a-b84a-4f07b415b77a", "version": 1, "description": "A dedicated proof beat exists in only ~4 arcs (Gambit, Sequoia, AIDA, Monroes). Other arcs embed evidence inline within development." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 70, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 58, "name": "Impact & Next Steps", "beatId": "cb4864a9-648d-4fe9-b780-5fba03a185fd", "matchId": "64528755-f210-4110-9faa-888d39f55340", "beatType": { "name": "Impact & Next Steps", "slug": "consultants-gambit-impact-next-steps", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0849-7728-9ee9-fd1609c4c655", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck concludes with an estimate of 35-50% downside risk and a call to action for investors.", "position": 4, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. 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"extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:02.19979+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 40, "from": 30, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Narrative", "categorySlug": "narrative" }, "matchId": "f0224277-e188-4558-af3f-71f6dbddf90e", "evidence": "The deck presents data on ROAD's contracts with the Florida DOT and potential forthcoming financial pressures.", "position": 2, "objective": "Is ROAD's relationship with the Florida DOT a risk or opportunity?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:02.250406+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 49, "from": 42, "loop": { "name": "08_analogy", "slug": "08-analogy", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Complex concepts, new markets, technical explanations for non-experts", "canonId": "019dd956-6901-7032-ba44-96eaed94c949", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight", "description": "Explain the unfamiliar through a well-understood parallel domain", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Explanation", "categorySlug": "explanation" }, "matchId": "9e9a041d-c35c-4959-b3ca-07b320b31ec5", "evidence": "The deck presents a peer benchmark analysis suggesting that LSP's margins are average and its conversion has been declining.", "position": 3, "objective": "How does ROAD's acquisition of Lone Star Paving compare to industry benchmarks?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:02.297267+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 70, "from": 58, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "6d5a7a7c-c6d9-417f-836e-b17478284dcb", "evidence": "The deck concludes with an estimate of 35-50% downside risk and a call to action for investors.", "position": 4, "objective": "What is the potential downside risk to ROAD's share price?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:02.348652+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "14c038f2-35cc-4f90-ab76-d0b8094ee3a2", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "ef95c837-7595-4e49-b461-b01887a4dd97", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sum of parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f", "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "97bcf144-7a84-412c-9edb-e9c0dd502317", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "8418d939-f28b-417d-8273-eee1f08dad27", "evidence": "CEO Fred J. 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An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "f805a687-eb06-49ab-8694-72fbd9fa1d39", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. 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"extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:20.062+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 68, "frameworkName": "valuation-reveal" }, { "matchId": "d3111522-c71c-4364-ac5c-65845a5c8d1a", "evidence": "Highlighting nepotism and related-party transactions as red flags for governance.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:19.646+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 69, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Spruce Point 'Strong Sell' short report on Construction Partners (ROAD). Distinctive cover art (alligator + steamroller). Document is firm-authored — no individual signature; Ben Axler is firm founder but not credited on cover. Heavy use of FOIA primary research (Florida DOT and Texas DOT) is the rhetorical centerpiece. Argues by analogy to Spruce Point's own prior USCR short (2018). Multiple CEO/Chairman quote-contradiction slides (p.10, p.38). Strong before/after framing on management's evolving market-share language (p.9), ENR ranking disappearance (p.12-13), and reserve-disclosure changes (p.27). Valuation framework is peer multiple comparison, not sum-of-parts. Visual quality is solid institutional Spruce Point template — readable, branded, dense — but not editorial-tier; notable cover image is unusually creative for the genre.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "-22% YoY in 2024 — $275.8m (2023) to $214.8m (2024)", "metric": "Florida DOT contract awards (FOIA)" }, { "detail": "Grew from <10% to ~13.6% of FY24 revenue (~$248m)", "metric": "Florida DOT % of revenue" }, { "detail": "3.4x — highest in peer group", "metric": "Net Debt / 2025E EBITDA (pro forma LSP)" }, { "detail": "17.9x ROAD vs. 12.3x heavy-contractor average and 11.6x materials average", "metric": "EV / 2025E EBITDA" }, { "detail": "Contracted from 16.0% (2017) to 14.2% (2024) post-COVID", "metric": "Gross margin" }, { "detail": "Rose from 11% (2018) to 26% (2024) of total backlog", "metric": "Low-bid / no-contract backlog %" }, { "detail": "7% organic vs. 50/50 organic/acquisitive guidance", "metric": "Organic revenue growth (FY24)" }, { "detail": "0.6% average vs. EY's typical 1-4% range", "metric": "M&A deal costs / cash for deals" }, { "detail": "Declined from 91% (2020) to 66% (2024)", "metric": "Insider voting control" }, { "detail": "2 of 14 (Nov 2024) and 3 of 15 (Dec 2024)", "metric": "Alabama DOT low-bid wins (Wiregrass)" }, { "detail": "Zero in past 24 months", "metric": "Texas DOT prime contracts to LSP (FOIA)" }, { "detail": "$10-15m or 3-5% of EBITDA", "metric": "Estimated FY25 EBITDA hit from Florida decline" } ], "closingAsk": "Reprice ROAD's premium multiple lower as institutional investors recognize the masked pressures — Spruce Point sees 35-50% long-term downside risk to the share price.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:59:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 157.08458, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Spruce Point models 35-50% long-term downside, with a base case of $55-$64 per share versus the ~$93 stock price, and a low case of $40-$49 implying up to 57% downside.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "undervaluation", "multiple_rerating", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Florida DOT awards (14% of sales) fell -22% in 2024 per Spruce Point FOIA", "Lone Star Paving acquisition deflects from Florida; FOIA shows zero Texas DOT prime contracts", "Premium 17.9x EBITDA multiple unjustified at 3.4x net leverage with opaque reserves" ], "scqaSituation": "Construction Partners (ROAD) is a $6bn Southeast/Sunbelt asphalt-paving and aggregates roll-up with 30 acquisitions since IPO, ~61% public-sector revenue, and a record ~$2bn backlog earning a premium peer-group valuation.", "thesisSummary": "Construction Partners (ROAD) is a $6bn Sunbelt asphalt and aggregates roll-up trading at the highest EBITDA multiple (17.9x) and net leverage (3.4x) in its peer group. Spruce Point's FOIA with the Florida DOT — ROAD's largest customer at ~14% of sales — shows contract awards collapsed -22% in 2024 to $215m, foreshadowing FY25 financial pressure that consensus does not model. The October 2024 ~$1bn acquisition of Lone Star Paving in Texas appears designed to deflect from this Florida gap, yet a Texas DOT FOIA reveals zero prime contracts to LSP in 24 months, suggesting it is a lower-margin subcontractor with MSHA citations at its top aggregate plant. Combined with opaque reserve disclosure, aggressive backlog definitions, declining ENR rankings, missed organic growth targets, and heavy related-party dealings, Spruce Point sees 35-50% long-term downside ($46-$60 per share).", "primaryDemands": [ "Investors should reassess ROAD's premium valuation in light of FOIA evidence of declining Florida DOT contract awards", "Discount ROAD's roll-up acquisitions (Lone Star Paving, Overland) for weak backlog quality and subcontractor dependence", "Demand quantitative disclosure of proven and probable aggregate reserves", "Scrutinize aggressive backlog definition, high DSOs, and revenue recognition changes", "Question governance: dual-class structure, related-party dealings, and insider selling" ], "scqaResolution": "Investors should reprice ROAD against materials and heavy-contractor peers given opaque aggregate reserves, aggressive backlog definitions, 3.4x net leverage, missed organic growth targets, and pervasive related-party dealings — not pay a premium multiple.", "thesisOneLiner": "ROAD is a levered Sunbelt asphalt roll-up whose Florida DOT engine is quietly stalling — FOIA shows -22% award decline — and its $1bn Lone Star deal masks the gap; we see 35-50% downside.", "precedentsCited": [ "U.S. Concrete (USCR) — Spruce Point's prior construction-materials roll-up short (5/7/2018)" ], "scqaComplication": "FOIA data shows Florida DOT contract awards — its single biggest customer at 14% of sales — fell -22% in 2024, while the $1bn Lone Star Paving deal in Texas appears to mask the gap and lacks prime-contract evidence in the Texas DOT FOIA.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 6, 9, 10, 33, 63, 70 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Knife River (KNF)", "Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)", "Summit Materials (SUM)", "Vulcan Materials (VMC)", "Martin Marietta (MLM)", "CRH", "Holcim", "Heidelberg Materials", "Cemex (CX)", "Arcosa (ACA)", "Granite Construction (GVA)", "Tutor Perini (TPC)", "Jacobs Solutions (J)", "Aecom 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This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security... All rights reserved.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:09.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5dddc4b2-c633-4f7f-915f-9a807b3feb76", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions, which we have based upon interpretation of certain facts and observations, all of which are based upon publicly available information, and all of which are set out in this research presentation. Any investment involves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. There can be no assurance that any statement, information, projection, estimate, or assumption made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be realized or accurate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:09.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "64472465-74ea-46b7-82e8-75b3ce25f331", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "To the best of our ability and belief, as of the date hereof, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable and does not omit to state material facts necessary to make the statements herein not misleading... Spruce Point Capital Management LLC makes no other representations, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:09.937+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b5106fe-83f3-4e8a-bcc9-47436bdf9384", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions. You should assume that as of the publication date of any presentation, report or letter, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC (\"SPCM\") (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our subscribers and clients has a short position in all stocks (and are long/short combinations of puts and calls on the stock) covered herein, including without limitation Construction Partners, Inc. 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Whereas in the past management talked about growing relative market share, the tone shifted in 2023 to things it was worried about and then to referencing “enhanced” relative market share vs. outright growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.129+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8ea5b5dd-62d2-4c05-9dd3-ba1339058bde", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“As we continue to consolidate and grow relative market share throughout our footprint, our business scales and margins expand.” — CEO Smith, Q2 2023; “Michael, it's interesting. 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Our fiscal year-over-year revenue growth of 16% consisted of approximately one-third organic growth and two-thirds acquisitive growth. — ROAD Actual (2021). This also assumes on the top line a 50-50 split between organic and acquisitive revenue. — ROAD Guidance (2024). 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In November 2024, Wiregrass was the low bid on only 2 of 14 projects and 3 of 15 projects in December 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:11.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee8e1702-5df4-4961-b503-d901a484fc91", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.72, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.00265 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Low Bid Sheet – Dec 6, 2024", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:11.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "073e6c5b-b255-4422-9f90-9f50faa17acc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.72, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.00265 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Bid Sheet, Nov 8, 2024", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:11.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ef0bd483-04c1-489c-b0b8-013613f61687", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Alabama DOT, Red emphasis Spruce Point", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This likely explains management's potential motivation for changing to a new definition in 2023 >> to embellish results.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:11.639+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b2ae43ce-d638-440a-bb7e-7fe1d4799266", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "FCF Conversion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:29+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf3-7f49a897df1d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: ROAD 10-K filings. 1) 2017-2019 maintenance capex percentages based on management's normalized guidance of 3.5%, 2020-2024 based on management's commentary. 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However, the 10-K later revealed that ROAD now receives for a majority of contracts final payments when projects are near completion or fully completed which strikes us as an unusual and alarming change of practice. 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But I think on average, you're going to see that's how we flow out year-over-year. — CFO Hoffman, Q4'24 Conf Call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf3-38368953f028", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: ROAD 10-K filings, broker reports and Q4'24 conference call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Revenue Recognition – Revenue Recognized Over Time Under Uncompleted Long-Term Construction Contracts... As described in Note 6, the Company has recognized $2,025,866,000...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:12.257+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "452a0399-a9a6-4eac-896d-4b99c2e9226c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: ROAD 10-K filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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}, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf3-07735f0e9880", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "asphalt volume growth: -6%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf3-08af5824bb9d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "CRH plc is a global leader in asphalt with a significant North American business. They regularly report both asphalt pricing and volumes. Through Q3'24, prices have increased by approximately 3%, arguably not much more than inflation, and are down sharply from prior years. Moreover, in Q3'24 volumes turned negative. Knife River's results mirror similar pricing and volume challenges. 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"attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:12.849+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "85d08f97-1681-4143-802a-52ec65333e0b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“We generally include a construction project in our contract backlog at the time it is awarded and to the extent we believe funding is probable.” — ROAD", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": 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"h": 0.08, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A recent benchmarking analysis of road paving profit margins suggest that LSP's financial performance is at best average relative to the industry. LSP's financial results also benefit from higher margin materials sales, no depletion expense, and paying very little income taxes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.003+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "51c72dde-f823-4ce0-b527-b89422ae4182", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And so they have great margins just in their contracting but then they add to that margin by capturing the value of aggregates and liquid asphalt by vertically integrating, which is our second margin lever.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.003+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c266ac1-f365-4795-b32d-7529957da305", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“And so they have great margins just in their contracting but then they add to that margin by capturing the value of aggregates and liquid asphalt by vertically integrating, which is our second margin lever.” — CEO Smith Deal Call Oct 21, 2024", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:31+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf4-ee028e304584", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: LSP Financials and update, \"Top 50 Paving Contractors 2024\", ForConstructionPros.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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However, Spruce Point does not believe the charts tell the entire story. In fact, when we compare the realized revenue with prior year backlog, we see that LSP's conversion has been declining sharply for three consecutive years. Therefore, we believe investors should heavily discount the quality of LSP's backlog.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.165+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "68290185-d930-48d8-ba43-624f223d4198", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "In fact, when we compare the realized revenue with prior year backlog, we see that LSP's conversion has been declining sharply for three consecutive years. Therefore, we believe investors should heavily discount the quality of LSP's backlog.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:31+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-5272a17591d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "ROAD and LSP's Backlog", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.165+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3a8a231f-f1cf-4f1a-80b3-10227374ae38", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "backlog conversion: 0.82x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:31+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-567acd214edb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: ROAD and LSP financials, Lender Presentation, Spruce Point analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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null }, "componentId": "29b8f7ce-1773-4fb0-815f-461f3ba98e68", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "5226741d-5e18-43b1-95e3-8c35aab05f3c", "evidence": "Exposing a contradiction between company-reported backlog growth and actual revenue conversion.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.165+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 45, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 49, "from": 42, "loop": { "name": "08_analogy", "slug": "08-analogy", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Complex concepts, new markets, technical explanations for non-experts", "canonId": "019dd956-6901-7032-ba44-96eaed94c949", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight", "description": 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"bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Vendor concentration risk for material purchases increased materially from 2022 to 2023", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9e856cf4-7641-4dab-84d0-d2dcaf92a9a6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "While ROAD's marketing of LSP indicates it owns all the assets at their locations and there is significant embedded value of aggregate reserves, there are reasons to question this claim. The aggregates are not on the balance sheet within PP&E (just inventory) and are not being depleted. LSP also disclosed a big increase in material purchases from two vendors. Lastly, LSP made an eye-opening subsequent disclosure that in 2024 it acquired a \"parcel of land from a related party\" for $36m or $33,058 per acre. There is no mention what, if anything, this acreage includes such as reserves or permitting.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d5f63f2b-e794-4b93-bf17-6d30babc4131", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "While ROAD's marketing of LSP indicates it owns all the assets at their locations and there is significant embedded value of aggregate reserves, there are reasons to question this claim.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-6aa038035c1f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Marketing of the business: LSP - State-of-the-Art Asset Portfolio", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "table", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "57494cf5-e181-4584-b00d-a3ac3d8659fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Accounting of the business: Inventory and Fixed Assets tables", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "table", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dfe7bf05-2450-4ae7-a586-93c0c76ba63c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Lender Presentation, LSP Financials and Update Financials as of 9/30/24, red emphasis Spruce Point", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee05e884-1828-49f3-a112-28fa812b9a82", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Where Does Lone Star Account For Its Aggregate Reserves?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "baf611c5-9b43-4593-b914-9495522ab5db", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "01e3f71a-12f7-4447-86e5-acde5bd9b83f", "evidence": "Contrasting marketing claims against financial statement disclosures to identify potential misrepresentation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.563+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 46, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 49, "from": 42, "loop": { "name": "08_analogy", "slug": "08-analogy", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Complex concepts, new markets, technical explanations for non-experts", "canonId": "019dd956-6901-7032-ba44-96eaed94c949", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight", "description": "Explain the unfamiliar through a well-understood parallel domain", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "9e9a041d-c35c-4959-b3ca-07b320b31ec5", "evidence": "The deck presents a peer benchmark analysis suggesting that LSP's margins are average and its conversion has been declining.", "position": 3, "objective": "How does ROAD's acquisition of Lone Star Paving compare to industry benchmarks?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:01:02.297267+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 47, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a red arrow to highlight the margin discrepancy between the two presentations.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 73, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1054, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Uses a red arrow to highlight the margin discrepancy between the two presentations.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "screenshot", "pie_chart", "icon_grid" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.281+00", "seconds": 3.06, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e/47", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e#slide-47", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Lone Star’s Adj. EBITDA margins are set to decline in FY25 by 150bps and the fine print disclaimer around the projected margin gives us considerable hesitation in believing they can be achieved. These projections are from October 2024, and we present further evidence in the next two slides about margin concerns.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:16.281+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f45e177c-4032-49a5-b209-aa9f3dcc0b26", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Lone Star's Adj. 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According to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), ROAD's new subsidiary ACE Aggregates (ACE) had 36 citations in 2024. ACE was recently acquired for $55 million (~4x revenues), and according to ROAD, was estimated to be LSP's biggest aggregate producer by tons.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:17.74+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "27c62576-a902-4f59-9456-88832a82bbe4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "A lot of his EBITDA, especially on the aggregate side is johnny come lately. A lot of these plants he put up are pretty new. Not a lot of history there. I think it is a very risky move by Construction Partners at that price.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:17.74+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d47114b-3614-414b-a84f-4086fdc008b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "A lot of his EBITDA, especially on the aggregate side is johnny come lately. A lot of these plants he put up are pretty new. Not a lot of history there. I think it is a very risky move by Construction Partners at that price. — Spruce Point Interview, Industry Expert With Decades Experience", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf6-563fbc0dbf18", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MSHA.gov, LSP updated financials, ROAD subsidiaries, Spruce Point research interview", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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(KNF).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:20.283+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "68e5b9bf-dbc9-45cd-92b0-6c81fccecef3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "An examination of recent tenders on the Texas DOT website in December 2024 indicates that LSP has not been competitive on three of four projects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-ec2a8f2756c2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "bid competitiveness: 75%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-f250e67dc25b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Texas DOT, Red emphasis Spruce Point", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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No customer represented more than 10% of total contract receivables.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:18.518+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9af91e29-d307-42ab-80e1-9d7f116d9841", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "If ROAD / LSP misevaluated who is the actual customer in its business dealings, there is the potential that revenue has been inaccurately recorded.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-b3277e8f83f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Revenue Mix pie chart showing 47% Private, 40% TxDOT, 13% Municipalities.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pie chart", "slug": "pie", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ffdb-71bb-a800-5c5ab9f1c373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pie", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:18.518+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "abac4bf2-e445-40d2-857d-3dbe1afc5b38", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue concentration: 14.8%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-b9386251f309", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "ROAD makes conflicting revenue claims related to Texas DOT in 2023 (14.8% or 13% of sales). 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null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:31:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf6-ed69e63e3da7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.42, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "2025E EV / Revenue", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": 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But permitting is much more difficult than it was 15, 20 years ago or even less. I mean it is changing every day with what local governments and people in general, society of general is willing to allow. So, permitting is becoming much, much more difficult. — Tegus Interview, Former BU Controller At A Leading Public Co. 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"canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81d2-d1d011ba2070", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes that ROAD's disclosures of its aggregate reserves are inadequate to fully access the risks of owning its shares or its valuation relative to peers that do disclose such information.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of 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Would that be a red flag? Absolutely...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:19.538+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "66deeff6-595a-4810-b1f3-d86ebb92f829", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Absolutely, I mean you can buy a great aggregate business but if they are almost out of reserves, then what are you buying? The true value is the rock in the ground. 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