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Dense institutional layout with consistent Spruce Point teal/grey template, yellow callout boxes, and red 'bottom-line' bars — visually competent but not top-tier editorial craft.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Intuit trades at ~10.6x-11x vs. SMB software median 3.1x, payments/payroll 4.0x, marketing automation 5.5x, consumer lead gen 1.3x", "metric": "EV / NTM Revenue" }, { "detail": "Cratered from 38% peak in FY2018 to just 10% in FY2024, below 11.5% WACC, under CEO Goodarzi", "metric": "ROIC" }, { "detail": "FY2023 -9% YoY and FY2024 +5%, far below the 20%-25% long-term target set at 2023 investor day", "metric": "Credit Karma revenue growth" }, { "detail": "Member growth decelerating to 5%, revenue per member -14% YoY, MAU/Members ratio falling from 35% to 31%", "metric": "Credit Karma members / MAU" }, { "detail": "18% since FY2021 vs. Klaviyo's 55% CAGR over the same period", "metric": "Mailchimp revenue CAGR" }, { "detail": "Grown 10x since TurboTax Live launch; GAAP vs. non-GAAP gross margin divergence hit 3.4% in FY2024", "metric": "COGS SBC / GAAP COGS" }, { "detail": "Intuit uses 13-15 years vs. 5.8-year comparable-transaction average; normalization would cut net income >20% and drop net margin to 14%", "metric": "Intangible useful lives" }, { "detail": "Adjusting for incentive comp tax (~$1.0bn) and net loan originations (>$1.4bn in FY24) cuts CFO margin to ~9%", "metric": "CFO adjustments" }, { "detail": "Only ~half of $9.5bn SBSE is QuickBooks software; ~30% of that is legacy Desktop", "metric": "SBSE segment composition" }, { "detail": "~$600m of NTM revenue worth only 1x, not 11x, implying 3%-6% downside alone", "metric": "Non-core revenue (interest, float, supplies, royalties)" }, { "detail": "74% Buy/Outperform, 22% Hold/Neutral, 4% Sell; average price target $716 (only 9% implied upside)", "metric": "Sell-side recommendations" } ], "closingAsk": "Spruce Point challenges investors to argue against its bear thesis points and expects Intuit shares to materially de-rate and underperform software peers, the tech sector, and the broader market.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:55:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 148.51569, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Sum-of-the-parts analysis implies 21%-79% downside and an adjusted free-cash-flow analysis implies 53%-74% downside, pointing to a fair share price of roughly $140-$310 versus $654.24.", "thesisTypes": [ "multiple_rerating", "fraud_exposure", "management_change" ], "top3Reasons": [ "SBSE is a black box; only ~1/3 of revenue is true SaaS yet INTU trades at 11x revenue", "$20bn Credit Karma + Mailchimp deals were overpriced blunders now facing material headwinds", "Sum-of-parts and adjusted FCF analyses imply 40%-80% downside to INTU's share price" ], "scqaSituation": "Intuit is a long-time S&P 500 software bellwether built on QuickBooks and TurboTax, now repositioned by CEO Sasan Goodarzi as an 'AI-enabled expert platform' trading at a premium 11x NTM revenue multiple.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point argues Intuit has lost its identity under CEO Sasan Goodarzi: the core Small Business & Self-Employed segment has become a financially opaque black box where only about one-third of revenue is true SaaS, while the $20 billion spent on Credit Karma and Mailchimp has saddled Intuit with lower-quality, economically sensitive, non-recurring revenue streams now facing serious headwinds. TurboTax faces existential threats from IRS Direct File and a long history of consumer-unfriendly behavior, Credit Karma is losing mindshare per Google Trends and Similarweb, and Mailchimp is losing share to Klaviyo. Spruce Point further flags aggressive accounting (intangible useful lives, SBC, incentive comp tax payments), questionable BaaS partners (Green Dot, MVB), and an AI rebrand it views as hollow. 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quality of a security, a summary of past performance, or an actionable investment strategy for an investor. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC is registered with the SEC as an investment advisor. However, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of personalized investment advice from Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. 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This document may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Spruce Point Capital Management LLC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:04.565+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46b6dca0-5676-47e3-87b3-7ca912d01b15", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions, which we have based upon interpretation of certain facts and observations, all of which are based upon publicly available information, and all of which are set out in this research presentation. Any investment involves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. There can be no assurance that any statement, information, projection, estimate, or assumption made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be realized or accurate. Any forecasts, estimates, and examples are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as limitations of the minimum or maximum possible loss, gain, or outcome. Any information contained in this report may include forward looking statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections. You should assume these types of statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections may turn out to be incorrect for reasons beyond Spruce Point Capital Management LLC's control. This is not investment or accounting advice nor should it be construed as such. Use of Spruce Point Capital Management LLC's research is at your own risk. You should do your own research and due diligence, with assistance from professional financial, legal and tax experts, before making any investment decision with respect to securities covered herein. All figures assumed to be in US Dollars, unless specified otherwise.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:04.565+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "773a8013-42f2-44d3-a4d3-5ba26994de8b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions. You should assume that as of the publication date of any presentation, report or letter, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC (\"SPCM\") (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our subscribers and clients has a short position in all stocks (and are long/short combinations of puts and calls on the stock) covered herein, including without limitation Intuit Inc. (\"INTU\") therefore stand to realize significant gains in the event that the price of either stock declines. Following publication of any presentation, report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and Spruce Point Capital Management does not undertake to update this report or any information contained herein. Spruce Point Capital Management, subscribers and/or consultants shall have no obligation to inform any investor or viewer of this report about their historical, current, and future trading activities.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:04.565+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e59d0df1-f9b7-4843-b076-aceb86ce5d34", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "To the best of our ability and belief, as of the date hereof, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable and does not omit to state material facts necessary to make the statements herein not misleading, and all information has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer, or to any other person or entity that was breached by the transmission of information to Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. However, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC recognizes that there may be non-public information in the possession of INTU or other insiders of INTU that has not been publicly disclosed by INTU. Therefore, such information contained herein is presented \"as is,\" without warranty of any kind – whether express or implied. 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Founder Scott Cook was customer-focused, generally built a deep bench of talented, like-minded executives, and stayed involved with the Company long after passing the reins to the next generation. Most observers viewed Intuit as a solid, if unspectacular, grower and a solid corporate citizen. We believe the Intuit of today bears little resemblance to the that of the past. Facing growth challenges and increasing threats, we believe Intuit has attempted a wholesale repositioning of the Company over the past five years, largely under the leadership of new CEO Sasan Goodarzi. We believe the three most significant changes have been: (1) the change in focus from software to services, namely payroll and payments with QuickBooks, (2) $20 billion spent on the ill-conceived and, we believe, value-destructive acquisitions of Credit Karma (lead generation) and Mailchimp (email marketing), and (3) the re-positioning of the Company as an “AI-enabled expert platform”, arguably not an improvement over simply “software”.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:57.065+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8294513a-1c47-452e-bbd8-edd1684b8499", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "After conducting a forensic financial and accounting review of Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU or “the Company”), a software bellwether, we have grave concerns about underlying trends in its core franchises, questionable large M&A transactions, the credibility and transparency of the Company’s accounting and financial reporting, the Company’s increasingly frequent episodes of consumer-unfriendly behavior, and the sustainability of its current premium valuation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:57.065+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bb90eb7f-8d14-466b-82c5-40491569c82b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe investors should be concerned about serious fundamental threats, increasingly opaque financial reporting, and questionable corporate actions. 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However, Intuit provides investors strikingly little business and financial information to understand segment trends and drivers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:56.989+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ae697122-bda2-4bd5-bd3f-2ba6c680e55f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "In instances where we do not have reporting from our partners, we estimate revenue based on information available to us at the time. — Intuit 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be35-f031b6d8241f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit SEC filings, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Intuit fails to provide investors timely and quarterly metrics for subscriber or customer counts, retention or churn rates, bookings/billings, annual recurring revenue (ARR), or customer acquisition costs. 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"kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit does not have a banking license, so it replicates the model of other fintechs by working with a “banking-as-a-service” partner... Green Dot has a checkered past that strikes us as unbefitting of a company such as Intuit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.741+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00292455-542e-4a99-869c-a22e9ea63c41", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Green Dot Wikipedia regarding past MoneyPak scandals", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.741+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f4c7984-eb6e-496d-84f7-10d7ec849690", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "U.S. Secret Service Returns $286M in Fraudulently Obtained Funds to the Small Business Administration", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.741+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "327cc4ec-67ee-47db-889f-a8e3a24e1660", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "“we believe that GDOT is in a state of transition due to account churn in the legacy consumer business and the loss of a few key BaaS partners” - Needham research dated 5/10/24", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.741+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "78da52b4-36bd-4dac-8d6e-71eae50a186a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "“...we and our subsidiary bank received a proposed consent order from the Federal Reserve Board relating principally to various aspects of compliance risk management... 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From my understanding, the additional time you granted Synapse to operate was to give us time to put into place an orderly wind down process. To date, there is no process in place and as I indicated already, no communication other than what has been reported publicly. 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Interest revenue was not material for all periods presented. — Intuit FY 2024 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be35-af6ad6aff3f6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Spruce Point Estimated Interest Revenue From Term Loans to Small Businesses", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.384+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "87ce50f7-8f2e-4c64-9274-9c23c752a665", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Estimate That QuickBooks Term Loans Have Generated $160 Million Of LTM Interest Revenue", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.384+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9ef48373-5261-474a-8d8e-9bca42ea2d04", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "41944ebb-d295-46e7-b163-93dd1b0e318c", "evidence": "Exposing hidden revenue streams to challenge valuation multiples", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.384+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 24, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 25, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a dual-axis chart (bar for lending, line for growth) with numbered callouts to annotate specific periods of decline and strategic shifts.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 76, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1443, "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "Uses a dual-axis chart (bar for lending, line for growth) with numbered callouts to annotate specific periods of decline and strategic shifts.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "line_chart", "bar_chart_vertical", "bullet_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.792+00", "seconds": 3.794, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/25", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-25", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "On its FQ4 earnings call, Intuit management revealed that $50 million of Desktop revenue was pulled into FQ1-FQ3 and $60 million was pulled into FQ4. 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Thus, total QuickBooks software YoY revenue growth was between 166 to 563 basis points lower than reported (assuming equal allocation of the revenue to FQ1-FQ3).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be36-0c0466de0447", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Small Business Term Loans ($B) vs QB Online + Desktop Revenue YoY Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.792+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c410377-3115-4fd2-a99a-ef5bb1bee628", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "list", "text": "(1) QuickBooks YoY revenue growth declined from 29% to 14% from FQ2 2020 to FQ2 2021. (2) Faced with slowing growth, Intuit dramatically ramps its lending activities and acquires Mailchimp. (3) Despite a $12 billion acquisition, growth continued its decline.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.792+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "06251b4e-7ae6-40bc-ba58-7a6bbd1c8b64", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "YoY revenue growth: 14%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be36-1056f9dd81ba", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Faced with a stagnant core software franchise, Intuit spent $12 billion to acquire Mailchimp and began aggressively expanding its small business lending activities, an activity we argue is far outside the Company’s core competencies and investor expectations.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.792+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f89477b-7d78-423a-9882-50b2e3b4f5c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit SEC filings, Intuit Q4 2024 earnings call transcript, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit does not disclose to investors any information regarding its loan loss allowances or historical loan write-offs. However, we do know that: (1) Intuit has largely operated in one of the most benign consumer credit environments on record, meaning default rate estimates borne of this period may be highly optimistic, (2) Intuit seems to have stepped up its activity as experienced lenders were ratcheting back, and (3) there are indications small business credit performance is worsening.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:58.262+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "900647ce-1ecd-42ad-967c-802b9d9ce9fa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: LendingTree, Kansas City Fed Small Business Lending Survey, Equifax (via PayNet), Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The allowance for credit losses is determined based on our current estimate of lifetime expected credit losses, historical credit losses, estimates of recoveries, and future expectations as of each balance sheet date. We evaluate the creditworthiness of our term loan portfolio on a pooled basis due to its composition of loans with similar general credit risk and characteristics. Expected credit losses are measured based on a loss forecasting model and calculated by applying loss curves derived from loan level risk segment and term mixes, aggregated at monthly loan vintages. Expected credit losses are continually updated with actualized charge-offs in each month as they occur. The allowance is inherently subjective and requires management estimates. The methodologies are updated periodically to reflect factors such as actual loan performance, changes to assumptions, portfolio growth, credit policies, changes to our applicant base, and macroeconomic conditions. Factors taken into consideration in the methodology include historical performance, customer creditworthiness, changes in the size and composition of the loan portfolio, and actual credit loss experience. We use empirical data and management judgment to estimate losses for new credit tests or products for which we do not have enough history. We make judgments about the known and inherent risks in the loan portfolio, adverse situations that may affect borrowers’ ability to repay, and current and future economic conditions. When available information confirms that the specific loans or portions thereof are uncollectible, identified amounts are charged off. Loans are charged off in accordance with our charge-off policy, as the contractual principal becomes 120 days past due or meets other charge-off policy requirements. Subsequent recoveries of the unpaid principal balance, if any, are subtracted from charge-offs to compute a net charge-off and are recorded to cost of service revenue in our consolidated statements of operations. As of July 31, 2024 and July 31, 2023, the allowances for credit losses, amount of charge-offs recorded, and amount of recoveries on term loans to small businesses were not material.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:05.826+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b617602d-96dc-48b7-b881-7590b0719af0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.17, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit's disclosures regarding its lending activities have changed over time, yet as discussed previously the Company still excludes metrics related to the health of its loan book that are typical of companies that engage in such operations. While Intuit states that allowances for credit losses and charge-offs are not material, it says the same about its interest income earned from its lending activities. However, we highlight that in its recent FY 2024 10-K, Intuit included substantially more discussion of its credit processes and practices. 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"links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/28", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-28", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe it may be a negative sign when a creditor begins receiving more than 25 bankruptcy notices per month.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.027+00", 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"2699c9e5-0cce-4da9-b6b9-0452a61f00c5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Court document 1", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.027+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "882a15d3-06e0-4ac2-8a5f-82d680a52e19", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.23, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In its FY 2024 10-K, Intuit disclosed that “the allowances for credit losses, amount of charge-offs recorded, and amount of recoveries on term loans to small businesses were not material.” While they may not be material in the context of the SEC’s definition and in relation to its total financial metrics, their scale relative to its specific lending activities should certainly be of interest to Intuit shareholders. Thus, we find it interesting that, in a recent Texas bankruptcy case, that Intuit was notified by the court that it should register as a “high-volume paper-notice recipient of bankruptcy notices under Federal Rule of Bankruptcy Procedure 9036.” Also in that case, the court records indicate that Intuit Financing received an order imposing sanctions by the court for its failure to appear or respond to the court’s notices. We believe this may indicate that Intuit’s lending business has been more focused on doling out funds than dealing with the aftermath.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.027+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9c8eb513-395b-4cc9-87af-6031e4044d1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "the allowances for credit losses, amount of charge-offs recorded, and amount of recoveries on term loans to small businesses were not material. — Intuit FY 2024 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:45+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be35-47435ee53150", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit FY 2024 10-K, US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas Houston Division Case No. 24-479, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.027+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ac2b18e5-777c-4186-b9b9-933d12655f22", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Find Indications Of Customer Defaults And Questionable Loan Book Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.027+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3243dbd2-69e3-460a-9877-7c8a85f34188", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "7ce4c1d9-a4d8-4879-83d4-944281058498", "evidence": "Contrasting SEC filings with court records to expose potential misrepresentation of credit risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.027+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 28, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 29, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a 'Which is it?' callout to highlight the contradiction between the 2007 prospectus and the 2012 CEO statement.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 67, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1435, "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "Uses a 'Which is it?' callout to highlight the contradiction between the 2007 prospectus and the 2012 CEO statement.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "comparison_table", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.228+00", "seconds": 3.455, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/29", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-29", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.12, "x": 0.75, "y": 0.505 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Which is it?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d990bf9a-dfab-40f3-999d-14defeb3eaaa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.52, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.61 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Figure 1. Trends in noncash payments, by number, 2000-18", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ac90b9c8-00bd-4963-82a7-e2ef90d11fcb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Not surprisingly, Intuit does not disclose to investors how much of its revenue comes from the sale of \"financial supplies\", as this would surely not be valued as highly as software revenue. Despite former CEO Brad Smith's statement that such revenue was \"highly predictable\", we find that the use of paper checks has been in long-term decline.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c6d39e2-f5d6-440f-8dce-c14d13df3eff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The growth of electronic banking and other electronic payment systems is decreasing the demand for checks and consequently causing pricing pressure for our financial supplies business as competitors aggressively compete for share of this shrinking market.\" — Intuit Prospectus Supplement Filed 3/9/07. \"When you combine revenue from Connected Services with other highly predictable sales such as financial supplies and tax desktop software, more than 80% of Intuit's revenue is recurring.\" — Brad Smith, Intuit CEO, on Q4 2012 Earnings Call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be35-d1642a5954b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit 424B5 filed 3/9/07, Intuit Q4 2012 earnings call transcript, 2019 Federal Reserve Payments Study, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c841193-93cc-4a5c-a2bf-05479e077c82", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Let's Not Forget That An Undisclosed Portion Of QuickBooks' Revenue Comes From \"Financial Supplies\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, 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disclosures to build a revenue estimate.", "function": "size_opportunity", "rawType": "market_sizing", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "market_sizing", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Market sizing", "slug": "market_sizing", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-08c8-756c-8664-733b73a7ee7b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "size_opportunity", "functionCanon": { "name": "Size opportunity", "slug": "size_opportunity", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-147b-7568-8828-a74a27697618", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 87, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 1826, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Uses a combination of historical peer data (Harland Clarke 2008) and current Intuit disclosures to build a revenue estimate.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.604+00", "seconds": 3.613, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/30", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-30", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Either financial supplies revenue is in decline (making it a bad business) or it remains larger than investors expect (meaning there is even more revenue not deserving an 11x multiple).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": 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"subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be36-517a76f1803f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Financial Supplies. We offer a range of financial supplies designed for individuals and small businesses that use our QuickBooks offerings. These include standard paper checks and Secure Plus checks with CheckLock fraud protection features, a variety of stationery, tax forms, and related supplies.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d6c1866-0a9d-4e03-a261-a0a909c51992", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We found that sole supplier Harland Clarke's check segment revenue in 2008 was nearly $1.3 billion. Assuming Intuit was a meaningful customer and recognizing the Company marked up prices for the supplies sold, it is quite possible that Intuit generated between $200-300 million at the time, which at the midpoint would have represented about 15% of total revenue. While check usage has declined by approximately 50% since then, Intuit has expanded its offerings to include multiple types of point-of-sale hardware. Thus, we believe it is possible that financial supplies revenue exceeds $200 million today.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "965fca5a-cff8-45c2-91e7-5fca6fb463ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Revenue from the sale of our financial supplies, such as printed check stock and hardware, including credit card readers for mobile phones, is recognized when control is transferred to the customer, which is generally when the products are shipped.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c4d4287f-f46c-45c5-bd08-bce18f21472f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Today, there are over $20 trillion in B2B payments in the U.S. and approximately 80% of businesses still pay other firms via paper checks.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:26:59.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e8c7e452-edb7-456c-95dc-fc64402bf28b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Today, there are over $20 trillion in B2B payments in the U.S. and approximately 80% of businesses 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null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:01.689+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a99a1008-491c-42b9-b0ce-afde96c96393", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.33, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "list", "text": "QuickBooks Elicits Strong Customer Feedback", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, 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Yet, it is important to realize that the core QuickBooks customer remains a micro-business (less than ten employees), making MS Excel or Google Sheets a viable and still widely used alternative. Perhaps a function of the typical small customer size, the nature of the user (if not the customers' accountant, then a stretched small business owner), or the fact that accounting can frustrate the uninitiated, QuickBooks seems to receive very negative reviews, both on third-party software evaluation sites and on the QuickBooks blog, in particular. While we acknowledge the sticky installed base represented by the community of small business accountants, we believe the market remains open to viable alternatives.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:01.689+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "62228b67-1cf5-44a9-8418-f1850d6f810c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: S&P Capital IQ, CNBC, The Economic Times, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We believe the offering largely represents the repackaging of existing products.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:00.264+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "be0a82e5-50af-4be3-8091-19b5941b38f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Even Former Intuit Employees Question the Company's Prospects for Mid-Market Success", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:00.264+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9ebfe64-2ec2-44a6-ba8d-5de86f0b4eee", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our reaction to the launch of the Intuit Enterprise Suite targeting the mid-market on September 17th was the same as the stock market’s: a giant yawn. We believe the offering largely represents the repackaging of existing products.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:49+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be37-8b3f71a0834f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe QuickBooks occupies an uncomfortable middle ground... Intuit has logically targeted the mid-market segment as an avenue of growth... However, we are highly skeptical that this effort will be a success because (1) Intuit's sales motion is not optimized for such a B2B sale, and (2) QuickBooks is a fundamentally limited platform when compared to true mid-market products like NetSuite.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:00.264+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d8b8e560-ae41-4abd-a579-9f933edf9c91", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“...they don't know true B2B sales, they don't do it. That's a totally new area. QuickBooks is a B2B product, but all the companies historically have been so small, it's sold B2C. Most people don't talk to a human. 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The online credit company uses information from two of the three major credit reporting agencies, TransUnion and Equifax, to give you a VantageScore 3.0. While this type of credit score is gaining popularity among lenders, you may not recognize it-and for good reason. The FICO scoring model is by far the most widely used credit score among financial institutions and lenders across the country, with 90% of lenders using this score to net potential borrowers. The atypical scoring model used by Credit Karma, coupled with the absence of information from Experian, the third of the three major credit reporting agencies, tends to make Credit Karma scores differ from scores pulled by other companies and financial institutions. The credit service is usually within range and a good indicator of your overall credit wellness. You can also get a report with a thin credit history through this model, which is super-helpful for those seeking to build their credit from nothing. 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But what if the free credit score customers receive is of questionable value? We believe Credit Karma subtly overstates the accuracy and usefulness of the credit scores it provides. 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Mint has a chance for you to take a snapshot and understand where you are financially with all your accounts at one point. And within that, what we see is high levels of engagement, weekly active use and people rely on Mint to see all their accounts in one place.” — Greg Johnson, Intuit Executive VP & GM of Consumer Group, at Barclays Conference, 6/4/19; “No, no. They will be -- ultimately, they will be separate. They will not be combined into one app only because I think our focus is, we have a huge opportunity to ensure that we can fuel Credit Karma's growth, and we don't want to have any distractions other than ensuring that they can deliver for customers so they will be separate apps.” — Sasan Goodarzi, Intuit CEO, on FQ2 2020 Earnings Call; “And then last thing is prime. Prime customers are one of the largest monthly active users, and they're the least engaged because our typical focus in the past has been subprime and near prime. 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"description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:04.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "902e6999-9cd9-4b69-8883-4108db398fd0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe Intuit may have attempted to boost Credit Karma revenue just as operating results in that segment were rapidly deteriorating.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": 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In it's current state I can't imagine what possessed them to announce a migration. Credit karma Sucks.. Hopefully the team who made the decision to shutdown mint in lieu are FIRED. for such a poor job and decision .. 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We provide links to numerous articles and discussion boards as evidence. However, the negative reaction is also visible in Similarweb data for other personal financial management sites. For example, site traffic for just five Mint alternatives grew 75% in the months after the announcement, and the related apps saw a similar sharp increase.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:05.135+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9caebe52-038b-4adc-b2ad-0f0e53c220ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Credit Karma has maybe 1% of the features of mint, and even what it has is poorly implemented. In it's current state I can't imagine what possessed them to announce a migration. — Reddit User", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:52+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be39-55d007e554c7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Similarweb, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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TurboTax also has a partnership with Green Dot, which provides the Turbo Visa Debit Card through a subsidiary. 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Just Listen To Their Response", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:05.458+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f8b95701-b358-4d1f-953d-875dd97661c2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "0c52959f-0aa9-4243-8edc-481db26053ce", "evidence": "The slide explicitly aims to expose a contradiction between corporate claims and research findings to undermine the company's credibility.", 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"y": 0.43 }, "kind": "list", "text": "90% of respondents ranked their experience as Excellent or Above Average. 86% of respondents said that their experience with Direct File increased their trust in the IRS.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:06.063+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cdd3a79d-15ab-491d-a25b-ebf1355bc250", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit and others brushed off Direct File after it was used by only ~140,000 filers, yet they ignore the fact that over 3.3 million checked their eligibility.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:06.063+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5cfc5fe8-71b2-4916-947e-c6ad5fa5f34a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Other surveys found 96 percent of users were 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Invited to Join in Filing Season 2025", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:06.903+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7dee840f-6389-4461-9c95-adbff6decef3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our consumer tax business also faces significant, increasing competition from the public sector...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:06.903+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3fe0537a-b678-48d6-b00c-7d207bef2613", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Sentence from FY 2023 10-K deleted: No longer true! \"The IRS Free File Program is currently the sole means by which the IRS offers tax software directly to taxpayers...\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:06.903+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f2617b75-c514-465c-8caf-8f213d13ae72", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The IRS Free File Program is currently the sole means by which the IRS offers tax software directly to taxpayers and its continuation depends on a number of factors, including continued broad public awareness of and access to the free program and continued private industry donations, as well as continued government support. — Intuit 2023 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3a-4c40abbab71c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Department of the Treasury press release dated 5/30/24, Intuit 2023 10-K, Intuit 2024 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.491+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a1be6bdc-99cd-4071-9253-d4a6d6c89842", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit's TurboTax Live is a premium offering that provides filers the option of engaging expert human assistance with their return. The TurboTax Live revenue has grown from zero to over $1.3 billion over seven years, which is impressive. However, we find it curious that Intuit management has essentially refused to provide much disclosure around such an important contributor to Consumer Segment results. 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look forward to sharing more at Investor Day.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.491+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b4ba049a-fe3e-4b05-ae38-cda8466a68c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.73, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "So, let me start first with we are going to breakout a lot more detail on TurboTax Live when we get into the fall at Investor Day.", "attrs": null, 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"model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "abc1f604-4dab-443f-8372-22e00d85a91b", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "1e1fdbef-d5a7-4609-be60-0b568bfbf087", "evidence": "Contrasting CEO promises of transparency with actual lack of disclosure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.491+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 79, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 80, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses two tables to contrast derived Live metrics with disclosed ARPR data to build a case for weak pricing leverage.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 85, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 1333, "nDataPoints": 60, "notes": "Uses two tables to contrast derived Live metrics with disclosed ARPR data to build a case for weak pricing leverage.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "seconds": 4.111, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/80", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-80", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.84, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "According to Morgan Stanley research, historical list prices for the Deluxe, Premium, and Self-Employed Online SKUs rose at 15%, 17%, and 9% CAGRs from 2020 to 2024 versus just 7% for Live.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b0ee295d-fb34-4cd3-b23b-00c346295d00", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.71, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "How can TurboTax disclosed Paying ARPR only increase 7% from 2020 to 2023 when (1) Online and Live average list prices rose 10% and 9%, (2) Intuit launched the highest ASP Full Service offering in 2021, and (3) we estimate that higher list ASP Live as a percent of total paying returns grew from 7% to 18% over the same period. We believe this suggests weak price realization.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e531b618-0602-4122-8357-f6caca87b3a6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "ASP growth: 7%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3b-1cdc46c5aa04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We have attempted to derive TurboTax Live revenue, returns, and ASPs from Intuit's sporadic disclosures. One key observation is that our derived ASPs for Live have grown at only a 7% CAGR since 2020.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8ff4c3e8-e5f9-4b19-bf96-0d6d985d11d9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "According to Morgan Stanley research, historical list prices for the Deluxe, Premium, and Self-Employed Online SKUs rose at 15%, 17%, and 9% CAGRs from 2020 to 2024 versus just 7% for Live. — Morgan Stanley", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3b-196957785ce6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit earnings call transcripts, earnings press releases, and investor day presentations, Morgan Stanley research dated 8/14/24, and Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "96ffdf46-23cd-4f9d-9d04-48208446db53", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Spruce Point Derivation of TurboTax Live Metrics Based on Company Disclosures", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "db568383-ea91-4082-90c8-c2ead8db9e89", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "table", "text": "We Question Intuit's Disclosed TurboTax Paying ARPR", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e8c5eeba-29e5-48d6-a4bd-9a8f935c5f54", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Believe TurboTax Live Pricing Leverage Has Disappointed", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "53ce9bc8-7b95-4624-b1b9-5f44213bce03", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "8d34aa20-a032-4a2b-87cc-d57d07fc5096", "evidence": "The slide uses derived data to challenge the company's disclosed metrics, implying a discrepancy or misrepresentation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 80, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 81, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a table to compare total consumer segment growth against growth excluding Live revenue, highlighting a deceleration in the latter.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 82, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1586, "nDataPoints": 121, "notes": "The slide uses a table to compare total consumer segment growth against growth excluding Live revenue, highlighting a deceleration in the latter.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.177+00", "seconds": 3.344, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/81", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-81", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "The other key observations from our derivation of estimated Live metrics are that (1) Consumer segment revenue grew faster before the launch of Live (FY 2016-2018) than it has over the past three years (FY 2022-2024), suggesting Live’s massive revenue growth may just be fueled by cannibalization of non-Live revenue, and (2) Consumer segment revenue growth ex-Live is very modest, we believe calling into question the sustainability of the franchise.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:08.177+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d12a9af9-5ebf-4149-b11b-e48213aafbe6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The other key observations from our derivation of estimated Live metrics are that (1) Consumer segment revenue grew faster before the launch of Live (FY 2016-2018) than it has over the past three years (FY 2022-2024), suggesting Live's massive revenue growth may just be fueled by cannibalization of non-Live revenue, and (2) Consumer segment revenue growth ex-Live is very modest, we believe calling into question the sustainability of the franchise.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3a-c68790f25305", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "YoY Growth: 63%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3a-cbeaf330f09a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) Based on FYE figures in FQ4 earnings release, including Canada and excluding the Free File Alliance (2) 2024 based on a (1%) decline per FQ4 2024 earnings release (3) Based on Spruce Point analysis discussed previously", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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And what about expert time spent on returns outside of calls with customers?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:09.77+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "28763edb-5e85-434c-9df8-d7b16e82197c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe Intuit, like many companies, is struggling to monetize AI. Thus, the Company has spent more time articulating how the technology can reduce the costs of its “expert platform.” However, based on its own disclosures, the Company’s efficiency gains from AI have been unimpressive thus far. For example, data provided in its 2023 Investor Day presentation suggest a <2% efficiency gain. 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I would say the -- really, the revenue is immaterial this year...”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:09.77+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "55c2c911-84c1-47e2-a3a4-9acbcc9b193f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit FQ4 2024 earnings call transcript, Intuit 2023 investor day presentation, Intuit SEC filings, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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It's awful.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f9d384cd-ab1f-4f46-924d-c62feb59a717", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "list", "text": "My results are anecdotal... if a journalist and a few tax experts can so easily spot holes in their AI, it makes me wonder why these companies had not. Or worse: Maybe they just didn't care.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "39a6ea9d-e150-449c-87e0-1424c28e4f89", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Question after question, I got many of the same random, misleading or inaccurate AI answers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3f0a687e-0952-41a1-aa01-fdda752dc470", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Both companies include text underneath their chatbots describing them as works in progress... When a product's fine print says \"don't trust us,\" you shouldn't.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b4750b2a-bcde-44a4-ba08-ed24ca91c1d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "list", "text": "I tested the AI from TurboTax and H&R Block... flubbed more than half of the 16 test questions I asked. Most often, it gave wildly irrelevant responses.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c23dc912-b055-4b86-9ce8-7eeb8e64bf98", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit frequently touts its AI and how its models are inherently advantaged from its vast trove of customer data. However, TurboTax Assist seems to have failed even the most basic queries from a Washington Post technology reporter. In fact, the AI performed so poorly that he generally considered the product to be dangerous for users.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3b65ab44-f7f1-41e7-87d0-00004f6a9616", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We have always believed our customers can benefit most from the power of AI, bringing professional grade resources to individuals that need it most around the world, tipping the odds in their favor.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:16.337+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4b04c157-efbf-4f72-b292-55ccd396174b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"TurboTax and H&R Block now use AI for tax advice. It’s awful.\" — Geoffrey A. Fowler, Washington Post. \"We have always believed our customers can benefit most from the power of AI, bringing professional grade resources to individuals that need it most around the world, tipping the odds in their favor.\" — Sasan Goodarzi, Intuit CEO.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3b-d3ef1b0e768e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Washington Post, Bloomberg, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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}, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-21a4e6314e80", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Selection of AI content-related lawsuits: The New York Times Co. v. Microsoft Corp., Axel Springer, Other Media Outlets v. Google, The Intercept Media Inc. v. OpenAI Inc., Raw Story Media Inc. v. OpenAI Inc., Basbanes v. Microsoft Corp., Sancton v. OpenAI Inc., Concord Music Group v. Anthropic PBC, Authors Guild v. OpenAI LP, Andersen v. Stability AI Ltd, Tremblay v. 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ChatGPT owner OpenAI strikes deal with news publishers to use content to train its AI. OpenAI partners with European media giants in France and Spain to use content for training.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:10.218+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6bdeb25a-6265-489b-8b34-be1ca9dbe462", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit likes to speak about how it has trained its AI on the wealth of customer financial transactions and information resident in its systems. However, Intuit could have problems if it used customer data without their consent. If we simply use the outcome of recent negotiations between AI companies such as OpenAI and media companies as an analog, it seems clear to us that Intuit should be paying its customers for the use of their data to train its models.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:10.218+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cf2447fc-4f48-44f7-a6f7-04714c7560e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"And that's why we have an advantage in the sense that we have our own proprietary data. We are building our own large language models... ...the unique competitive differentiation we have in terms of the 60,000 attributes we have on the consumer, the large data set and our own large language model.\" — Intuit CFO Aujla at Goldman Sachs Conference, 9/6/23", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-264ea4da3fe0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg, Variety, Insurance Journal, Euronews, Semafor, Euronews, IRS website, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We also believe Intuit has made a number of questionable decisions related to its segment reporting over the past several years that have reduced transparency and comparability to prior periods. 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Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:13.638+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4b5b3760-f807-43b8-9b3e-52386119e9b6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.58, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Consolidation of Mailchimp With QuickBooks; Transfer of Mint From Consumer to Credit Karma Segment; Multiple Segment Operating Expense Reclassifications; Different Expense Reporting Practices For Credit Karma; Product or Service?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:13.638+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "84c57214-17ec-450b-9afa-951a35227072", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Intuit Has Engaged In Segment Reporting Shuffling In Recent Years", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:13.638+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7c75fac6-d6fc-441c-a972-1e9f3ccc3f71", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "0cf7c39f-e327-41d4-93ee-689c2cef7785", "evidence": "The slide systematically lists accounting practices intended to obfuscate financial performance.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:13.638+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 99, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 100, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a combination of tables and callouts to highlight the discrepancy between rising segment margins and contracting corporate margins following expe", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 87, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 1224, "nDataPoints": 60, "notes": "The slide uses a combination of tables and callouts to highlight the discrepancy between rising segment margins and contracting corporate margins following expense reclassifications.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "seconds": 7.706, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/100", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-100", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Segment margins expanding while corporate margins contract.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7c121fdf-d7f5-46b5-a990-cc8549e2c130", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Previous reclassifications boost segment margins. Consumer segment sees declines in subsequent years.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e53a4963-272d-415a-884e-e07bcea7b69d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Intuit has reclassified hundreds of millions of dollars of segment operating expenses to the corporate level, which, absent more details about the changes, leads us to believe Intuit could be obfuscating the true labor costs related to its growing \"expert\" platforms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-87c8e156784f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Intuit has reclassified hundreds of millions of dollars of segment operating expenses to the corporate level, which, absent more details about the changes, leads us to believe Intuit could be obfuscating the true labor costs related to its growing “expert” platforms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "704992c5-9152-4fcd-8f77-eb02ffdd112d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Segment Operating Margin: 81.3%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-8a8fdec3a0b8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We find it suspicious that since the introduction of the labor-intensive “Live” offerings that Intuit has twice reclassified “technology and customer success function” expense to 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"active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47393542-8b90-418a-8063-7f3d086e9dcd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Spruce Point Analysis of Segment Operating Expenses (August 2020 and 2023 Reclassifications)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "30492504-470c-4eab-821a-3e0903454477", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Historical Margins FY2017-FY2024", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3f1ed16f-cf82-4996-974d-b0d3dd270822", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Intuit May Be Maintaining Segment Operating Margins By Continually Reallocating Operating Expenses To The Corporate Level", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "242cce91-4f2b-470c-b4ee-0a9028ba80f2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "5c2181b3-586a-43ca-9cd9-8fa6c419d30f", "evidence": "The slide explicitly claims the company is obfuscating costs to embellish margins.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.744+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 100, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 101, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses red boxes to highlight the inflection point in 2018 (TurboTax Live launch) and the subsequent trend in COGS SBC and margin erosion.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 71, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 872, "nDataPoints": 150, "notes": "The slide uses red boxes to highlight the inflection point in 2018 (TurboTax Live launch) and the subsequent trend in COGS SBC and margin erosion.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.731+00", "seconds": 3.64, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/101", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-101", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.88, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "GAAP gross margin is down 565 bps since 2017.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.731+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e30ec6b-72d4-4a82-baaf-7447a7b2f8fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.88, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "TurboTax Live launched in 2018.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.731+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "613dfbda-325c-4493-8a60-71d0168a9928", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.88, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "SBC / COGS up 10x since TurboTax Live launch.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.731+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ba6f59cb-502a-4a84-aa83-77cd825584cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "COGS SBC: 10x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-59e8457c8da3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As discussed, we find Intuit's segment operating income margin trends suspicious, particularly for its Consumer Group where the revenue mix shift toward the labor-intensive “Live” offering is barely evident in segment financials and incremental margins. However, scrutinizing COGS stock-based compensation expense provides a clear indication of the massive increase in the labor cost component involved in delivering “expert” services as part of the TurboTax and QuickBooks Live offerings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.731+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "79a696a6-bf6b-4b8a-8a33-a46e1c0917b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit SEC filings, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We may experience higher compensation costs to retain and recruit senior management and highly-skilled employees that may not be offset by improved productivity or revenue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-d7d00e056641", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "median compensation CAGR: 8%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3c-db986147d249", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We analyzed median compensation data for several comparable Silicon Valley-based enterprise software companies. We focus on the period from 2018 to 2022... Intuit's median compensation grew at an 8% CAGR over the period, while the peer average and median grew just 4% and 2%, respectively.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.671+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e9e0e744-e658-4f39-b742-d82404d61b02", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We may experience higher compensation costs to retain and recruit senior management and highly-skilled employees that may not be offset by improved productivity or revenue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.671+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "13beb616-8a0e-44f8-8755-812371f91a8d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit SEC filings, Adobe SEC filings, Salesforce SEC filings, ServiceNow SEC filings, Workday SEC filings, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.671+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ac729f83-dc1d-49ee-a633-b4733d30250c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Median Compensation Data Also Supports The Thesis That Intuit's Labor Costs Are Increasing", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.671+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bdf013aa-1849-47c3-8f56-49bd32400ae9", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "b460e25e-139d-408a-9458-89efa2511fd4", "evidence": "Direct comparison of Intuit's compensation CAGR vs peer group median.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.671+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 102, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 103, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific areas of concern in the data table.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 60, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1164, "nDataPoints": 90, "notes": "The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific areas of concern in the data table.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:12.401+00", "seconds": 3.886, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/103", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-103", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "We find it concerning that accounts receivable has grown over 4x since 2018/2019, while the allowance for doubtful accounts has barely changed and remains far below past levels as a percent of gross A/R.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:12.401+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0564fadb-ae5d-434f-944f-e3d9ee4ace15", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Allowance / AR, Gross: 1.1%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3d-25fde9258fbe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.17, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We find it counterintuitive that Intuit's capital expenditures have declined materially as a percent of revenue during a period when the Company is supposedly investing to capture the potential benefits of AI and building out its Live delivery platform. In addition, we have no good explanation for a dramatic decrease in the allowance for doubtful accounts from consistently over 30% of gross accounts receivable to just 1% in FY 2024. Although the large increases in accounts receivable can be explained by the Credit Karma and Mailchimp transactions, we don't see any logical reason why at least Mailchimp wouldn't require a similar level of allowances given the similarity of its customer base to pre-deal Intuit (ie, SMBs).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:12.401+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c2560524-c5c3-4d86-883d-120e3759fb69", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit SEC filings, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Since the Company was founded in 2007, a 15-year user relationship assumption is only supportable if it had never lost a customer in its history. Mailchimp is a freemium product targeting SMBs, a market acknowledged to have typical churn rates exceeding 35% per year, or an average customer life of less than three years. Thus, we find Intuit’s assumptions very aggressive.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.769+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f0d5530c-d321-4163-a663-fcae42b2883e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Intuit’s two major acquisitions of Credit Karma and Mailchimp generated a massive $5.9 billion of intangibles related to the value ascribed to user relationships and customer lists. Remarkably, the Company has assumed 15- and 13-year useful lives, respectively, for those intangibles for the purpose of amortization.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3d-387a1520ff05", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "useful life: 15 years", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3d-3d4a51f83254", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Intuit’s two major acquisitions of Credit Karma and Mailchimp generated a massive $5.9 billion of intangibles related to the value ascribed to user relationships and customer lists. Remarkably, the Company has assumed 15- and 13-year useful lives, respectively, for those intangibles for the purpose of amortization.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.769+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "298f2809-57c6-466a-ac21-fd701f9eedf9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit FY 2022 10-K, SaaStr:: The Challenge With SMB SaaS, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.769+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "53fc1d84-deb8-4a74-bb60-a08e984ec907", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Intuit Disclosures Related to Useful Lives of Acquired Intangibles: Mailchimp", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.769+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", 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"bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "When we examine the assumed useful lives of customer lists/relationships for SMB SaaS acquisitions or acquirers' general policies (i.e., not specific to a single transaction), we find that the average of the values/mid-points yields 5.8 years, which represents greater than 50% discounts to the assumptions used by Intuit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:11.784+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, 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null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Estimates from S&P Capital IQ consensus as of 9/19/24; historical non-GAAP EBITDA equals GAAP EBITDA adjusted for SBC and professional fees", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:13.52+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a22d33ad-ef7d-4fa5-a348-b7f3508122cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.012, "y": 0.965 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: S&P Capital IQ, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Based on the analysis above, we believe Intuit management’s long-term growth guidance has not been credible. Therefore, to the extent that any sell-side models simply parrot management’s growth guidance, we believe the foundation for Intuit’s premium valuation multiple is at risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.089+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "215156fb-f5d1-4079-b747-f05d1b655f15", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our research has identified numerous headwinds that we believe will create revenue growth challenges for Intuit. Yet, Intuit continues to trade in-line with high-growth SaaS companies. We find this even more surprising given Intuit’s growth performance versus its recently stated long-term growth targets. For both the Consumer and Credit Karma segments, FY 2024 actual growth and FY 2025E projected growth fall materially below the long-term growth targets Intuit presented just a year ago at its 2023 analyst day. In fact, Credit Karma FY 2025E growth guidance even falls materially below the sharply reduced new range. Our takeaway from these figures is that Intuit’s long-term growth targets lack credibility and should be more closely scrutinized by investors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.089+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88fd9d1d-8c91-41c4-9013-820ebfe6fdf7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Based on the analysis above, we believe Intuit management’s long-term growth guidance has not been credible.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3e-0c0bd53f0926", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "Red shading denotes result or midpoint of guidance below long-term revenue growth target", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Legend", "slug": "legend", "status": "active", "canonId": "31361933-3d22-4c70-bbad-0801e9fffc0c", "version": 1, "description": "Color/symbol decoder placed adjacent to a chart or diagram." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.089+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee3ab1c8-b7c8-48a4-8896-2d0fa7946a50", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3e-13678e6438a1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Intuit 2023 investor day presentation, Intuit SEC filings, Intuit FQ4 2024 earnings release, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Despite rising competitive pressures, slowing growth, declining financial transparency, and a history of poor capital allocation, 74% of analysts have Buy / Outperform ratings on Intuit shares. 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"metric", "text": "Implied Stock Price Downside: (88%)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3e-c828d4c06482", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We hear many valuation “stories” for Intuit: SaaS, fintech, AI 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There’s even the Company’s vision of “AI-enabled expert platform”, which frankly sounds the worst of the bunch given the implied human resource requirements. Regardless, looking at the logical comparable companies for these visions of Intuit yields one obvious conclusion in our opinion: Intuit is dramatically overvalued no matter what you think the Company “is”.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.089+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "38f0004c-2624-4ba1-9fdb-182bf8dc1998", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: S&P Capital IQ, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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It Doesn't Matter; We Believe Intuit Is Overvalued Regardless", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.089+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a6e1dc70-c463-40bc-9bda-1e6d69db0f05", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "61dac4fa-9de5-4d76-8b87-252be11946c2", "evidence": "Comparison of current valuation to peer-implied valuation to show downside.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.089+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 120, "frameworkName": "valuation-bridge" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 121, "type": "setup", "title": "Uses a combination of qualitative arguments (left) and quantitative valuation bridge (right) to support a bearish thesis.", "function": "quantify_opportunity", "rawType": "valuation_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "valuation_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-12c3-77cd-8474-6cd39cf844cb", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "quantify_opportunity", "functionCanon": { "name": "Quantify opportunity", "slug": "quantify_opportunity", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-17e4-726f-aa15-83350acef1dd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 60, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 832, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Uses a combination of qualitative arguments (left) and quantitative valuation bridge (right) to support a bearish thesis.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "comparison_table", "icon_grid", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.714+00", "seconds": 2.98, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592/121", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592#slide-121", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-91010c0bd592.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Intuit generates $1.2 billion of revenue from fundamentally less attractive sources that we believe should be valued at a multiple dramatically lower than the current 11x.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:14.714+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dcbeef14-af12-4760-9168-f900440ab4b8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "list", "text": "SMB Focus: High customer churn and low LTV; 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But even if you believe they will one day be more synergistic with Intuit’s core businesses, there is a strong case to be made that their revenue streams are: (1) more economically sensitive, (2) more discretionary in nature, and (3) less recurring by nature. 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LTM FCF: 74%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:23:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-1ac4-74a6-be3e-29e1e18748a4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Some may believe that, as a mature and profitable software company, Intuit should be valued based on its free cash flow. We provide that analysis below after making our previously discussed adjustments to Intuit and peer company financials. We find that Intuit trades at a 200% premium to the median multiple of its large company peers, which we believe is difficult to justify.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "451ca301-b111-4f58-bcc8-f2aec204a510", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: Select ADBE metrics not updated for most recent quarter as new 10-Q remains unfiled\nSource: S&P Capital IQ, Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4fd8f059-55a7-446f-99c4-a158d5dd7489", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Implied Intuit Valuation at Peer Multiples", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9b737877-99da-406a-bafe-d28c71bc00cc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Spruce Point Free Cash Flow Valuation of Intuit", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b6e5fb23-9861-4835-b35b-c4c3fd07ac70", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Our Cash Flow Based Valuation Suggests 53% -74% Potential Downside Risk To Intuit's Share Price", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "af58eb1c-fcdb-4885-94ba-cd6264892243", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "20e6ff49-400c-48c1-ba64-235da72049cb", "evidence": "Comparison of peer multiples to derive implied share price and downside", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:27:15.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 125, "frameworkName": "valuation_bridge" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "from": 10, "to": 15, "label": "Aha Moment", "description": "to reveal the concerning trends in Intuit's financial reporting" }, { "from": 30, "to": 40, "label": "Iceberg", "description": "to expose the risks related to Intuit's small business lending activities" }, { "from": 60, "to": 70, "label": "Cost Of Inaction", "description": "to highlight the potential consequences of Intuit's alleged malfeasance" } ] }