{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-721c68819c81", "slug": "82a42fe61ec9", "title": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)", "subtitle": "Spruce Point Capital Management · 2023-11", "author": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "date": "2023-11-09 00:00:00", "pageCount": 28, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.", "targetTicker": "ELF", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-721c68819c81", "slug": "82a42fe61ec9", "title": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. 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Beauty, Inc.", "targetTicker": "ELF", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/82a42fe61ec9", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 117.8256721496582 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 28, "pagesIndexed": 28, "pagesWithImages": 28, "pagesWithMetadata": 28, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 179, "chartCount": 3, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 6, "documentToolMatches": 4, "frameworkMatches": 23, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "matchId": "80aed321-ee77-4f6a-9a29-eb7f7cb8934f", "evidence": "The document follows a narrative of exposing contradictions and problematic connections", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:35.210768+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 5, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "3ad651ac-65b1-41cf-8e93-9e519410fedd", "matchId": "80aed321-ee77-4f6a-9a29-eb7f7cb8934f", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Exposing contradictions in ELF's brand equity and marketing partnerships", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. 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The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "565ffc3c-0995-49e1-af6e-6aa727626ca5", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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"or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "42799c0b-ee72-4f34-8d3e-f4582051ce66", "evidence": "The use of the Grinch character to frame the company as a villain.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:06.135+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" }, { "matchId": "e1dae69d-0ae0-42e6-9881-603c3b296c6d", "evidence": "Slide title is 'Executive Summary'", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:05.287+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "frameworkName": "executive-summary" }, { "matchId": "772b4643-391b-44a9-a7bc-b5af2f0ed0ea", "evidence": "The slide explicitly lists past scandals and links current marketing partners to controversial groups to argue for a valuation collapse.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.821+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "05270365-5970-4a41-8c55-b67f315e52a7", "evidence": "Exposing contradiction between company risk disclosures and actual business practices.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:09.386+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "af6c60a8-07ee-4aee-ac19-6746295946f5", "evidence": "Links agency partnership to marketing success to stock performance", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:10.426+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "frameworkName": "causal-chain" }, { "matchId": "6281fd65-6a78-4043-884e-e9459f058959", "evidence": "Side-by-side comparison of corporate values vs. employee allegations.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.18+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" }, { "matchId": "38ce4f13-6657-46d8-bb20-8b0aaf4d07fb", "evidence": "Slide segments customer base by gender and age.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.328+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "audience-segmentation" }, { "matchId": "989e6451-d06d-47f3-b72a-a848758416d1", "evidence": "Highlights concentration risk and potential for contract termination as a business risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.703+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "80fd544f-6b7d-4f72-8f47-0982b6d4034a", "evidence": "Linking a company founder to a controversial organization to damage credibility.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.429+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 12, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "150867de-fc65-442e-b456-3cef1e6c44e5", "evidence": "Associating company founders with a known cult to frame them as villains.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.681+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" }, { "matchId": "7fbfb886-8cd0-4739-971c-43f8bbbd001a", "evidence": "Linking company personnel to criminal cult activity to damage reputation", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:09.253+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "16e39e61-f8f2-45a1-97b0-42bc697d4b55", "evidence": "Links the subject to a controversial figure to damage reputation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.89+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" }, { "matchId": "93f8f3b4-a715-4f39-a7b3-4de3bc286fb3", "evidence": "Exposing links between a controversial figure and a business entity to suggest reputational risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.538+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "28e93451-e197-416e-8e73-f8f2296e32f6", "evidence": "The slide attempts to expose a hidden relationship or conflict of interest to undermine the credibility of a target.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.048+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 17, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": 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The thesis is unusual: not accounting fraud or financial misstatement, but reputational/brand-equity risk via guilt-by-association linking ELF's marketing agency Movers+Shakers to the NXIVM cult through circumstantial evidence (yellow branding similar to a cult sash, repeated use of 'joy' and 'badass' terminology, social-media 'likes', co-founder photographs with convicted NXIVM members). Spruce Point repeatedly hedges that the agency founders themselves were not charged with wrongdoing. The valuation argument is a thin overlay on the brand-risk narrative. Document is also long IAS (Integral Ad Science) per the disclaimer.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "45%-65% (target $33-$54 vs. $98.14)", "metric": "Estimated downside to share price" }, { "detail": "Target 25%, Walmart 20%, Ulta 15% — 60% of FY-ended Mar 2023 net sales", "metric": "Customer concentration" }, { "detail": "67% of Board, 56% of senior leadership, 79% of all employees", "metric": "Female workforce mix" }, { "detail": "82.12% of elfcosmetics.com traffic per Similarweb", "metric": "Female customer mix" }, { "detail": "ELF at 5.4x vs peer average 2.3x and peer max 5.1x (L'Oreal)", "metric": "EV / 2024E Sales" }, { "detail": "ELF at 22.7x vs peer average 12.4x", "metric": "EV / 2024E EBITDA" }, { "detail": "ELF at 27.5% vs peer average 10.0%", "metric": "Revenue growth 2023E-2024E" }, { "detail": "$355 million, closed October 2023", "metric": "Naturium acquisition price" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell or short ELF, as reputational backlash from its Movers+Shakers/NXIVM-linked marketing relationship could trigger 45%-65% share-price downside.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:49:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 117.82567, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "If retail partners or Gen-Z female customers revolt and growth momentum evaporates, Spruce Point models a $33-$54 share price versus $98 — implying 45%-65% downside, or roughly $2bn-$3.7bn in lost equity value.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Movers+Shakers founders have documented past ties to the NXIVM sex-trafficking cult", "ELF's 'joy' and 'badass' marketing language mirrors NXIVM/DOS terminology", "ELF trades at a premium (5.4x EV/Sales) that depends on growth tied to this agency" ], "scqaSituation": "ELF Beauty is the fastest-growing US cosmetics company, trading at the industry's richest multiples on the back of viral TikTok and Gen-Z marketing campaigns produced in partnership with Brooklyn agency Movers+Shakers since late 2019.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point is short e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) and sees 45%-65% downside risk to the share price. ELF trades at the richest multiple in cosmetics (5.4x EV/Sales 2024E vs. a 2.3x peer average) on the back of 27% revenue growth driven by viral TikTok and Gen-Z campaigns produced by a small Brooklyn agency, Movers+Shakers. Spruce Point alleges the agency's co-founders Evan Horowitz and Geoffrey Goldberg have long-standing ties to the NXIVM cult, and that ELF's recent 'joy' and 'badass' marketing language echoes NXIVM/DOS terminology. With ~80% female customers, 79% female employees, and 60% of sales through Target, Walmart and Ulta — all bound by supplier conduct codes — Spruce Point argues a brand-equity revolt could force costly re-branding and collapse the growth premium, implying a $33-$54 share price versus $98.", "primaryDemands": [ "ELF should sever or reassess its marketing relationship with Movers+Shakers", "ELF should embark on a costly creative re-branding to restore brand equity", "Investors should sell/short ELF given 45%-65% downside risk to the share price" ], "scqaResolution": "ELF should sever or restructure the Movers+Shakers relationship and undertake an expensive creative re-branding to restore brand integrity with female consumers and major retail channel partners bound by supplier conduct codes.", "thesisOneLiner": "ELF Beauty's premium valuation relies on viral Gen-Z marketing led by Movers+Shakers, an agency whose founders have NXIVM-cult ties — reputational backlash points to 45%-65% downside.", "precedentsCited": [], "scqaComplication": "Movers+Shakers' co-founders have documented historical ties to the NXIVM sex-trafficking cult, and ELF's recent 'joy' and 'badass' messaging mirrors NXIVM/DOS terminology — a reputational time-bomb for a brand whose customers, employees, and retail partners are overwhelmingly female.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 4, 13, 23, 27, 28 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "L'Oreal", "Estee Lauder", "Ulta Beauty", "Coty", "L'Occitane", "Inter Parfums", "Olaplex", "Beauty Health" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 3 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a satirical illustration of the Grinch to frame the target company (E.L.F. 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If ELF’s retail partners or end female customers revolted at its “joy” and “badass” messages while realizing that Movers+Shakers founders remain connected to NXIVM loyalists, we could see 45%-65% downside risk to ELF’s share price as recent sales momentum evaporates.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.821+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "254edf5d-adaf-4662-8442-75d1184c15f5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Given these previous missteps, we are surprised to see that ELF relies on the services of Movers+Shakers to assist with its viral digital marketing campaigns to broaden its Gen Z appeal. Spruce Point believes that to salvage its brand equity, ELF may need to embark on a new and expensive creative re-branding strategy to restore the public’s confidence that it adheres to its values and aligns with female concerns. Movers+Shakers was recently acquired by Stagwell Inc. (Nasdaq: STGW) on Nov 2nd for approximately $15 million. Though Movers+Shakers is unlikely to be a material contributor to Stagwell’s $2.5 billion of revenue, we believe it is a material factor in ELF’s continued success with its female and Gen Z customer base. As a result, we are short ELF but not Stagwell.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.821+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "628425e3-c2f9-4e66-bb41-7632db507cb8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Brand integrity is critically important to ELF and customer concentration presents a material risk: ELF warns as material risk factors in its 10-K that, “Any damage to our reputation or brands may materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations” and that “vendors...could harm our brands.” ELF’s own brand values and “Superpowers” stress, among other things, that it is guided to: 1) Do the right thing, 2) Execute with speed and quality, and 3) Operate cruelty-free (with respect to animals, but by extension, we believe all living beings). We question whether ELF is truly committed to these values. As of March 31, 2023, Target, Walmart and Ulta Beauty represented 25%, 20%, and 15% of net sales, and none of these powerful customers are obligated to continue purchasing from ELF. In addition, each of these material customers have conduct codes for suppliers which describe expectations of ethical behavior.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.821+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ce18e00f-1a79-449a-9663-f45d4dc44469", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Any damage to our reputation or brands may materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations\" — e.l.f. 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Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.328+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dfc5a26c-271c-4f88-b17a-a7c3346c0b52", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.325, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "ELF's Customers Skew Heavily Towards Women", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.328+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0b85911-e352-4c23-9ae0-97b7836dff44", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "38ce4f13-6657-46d8-bb20-8b0aaf4d07fb", "evidence": "Slide segments customer base by gender and age.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:07.328+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "audience-segmentation" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 5, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "3ad651ac-65b1-41cf-8e93-9e519410fedd", "matchId": "80aed321-ee77-4f6a-9a29-eb7f7cb8934f", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Exposing contradictions in ELF's brand equity and marketing partnerships", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. Used by AIDA, Monroes, Pixar Pitch, Overcoming the Monster." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 26, "from": 5, "loop": { "name": "02_pattern_hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "canonId": "019dd956-6695-771a-be2e-f1748ef041a4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "ec04b634-4265-403a-bac6-3c330a34b97e", "evidence": "Repeatedly highlighting connections between ELF's marketing partners and NXIVM", "position": 0, "objective": "Exposing contradictions and problematic connections", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:35.378654+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 28, "from": 1, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "906b8199-6870-4f23-b268-c2cf94bad587", "evidence": "Presenting a clear and detailed short thesis", "position": 1, "objective": "Emphasizing the potential downside risk", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:35.418198+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 11, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a 'Warning' callout to emphasize the lack of long-term purchase obligations from major customers.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 76, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1408, "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "Uses a 'Warning' callout to emphasize the lack of long-term purchase obligations from major customers.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "screenshot", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.703+00", "seconds": 3.898, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-721c68819c81/11", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-721c68819c81", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-721c68819c81#slide-11", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-721c68819c81.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "60% of ELF's sales are through Target, Walmart and Ulta Beauty. ELF must adhere to Supplier Codes of Conduct that reference ethical conduct and standards that are open to the interpretation of their customers, none of which have any obligation to continue purchasing products from ELF.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.703+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a33cad19-461c-4109-a996-bcd100a51fa1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "60% of ELF’s sales are through Target, Walmart and Ulta Beauty. ELF must adhere to Supplier Codes of Conduct that reference ethical conduct and standards that are open to the interpretation of their customers, none of which have any obligation to continue purchasing products from ELF.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-64d3-706e-a45a-2d7770c8c27d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "Warning: As is customary in the industry, none of our customers is under any obligation to continue purchasing products from us in the future.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Legend", "slug": "legend", "status": "active", "canonId": "31361933-3d22-4c70-bbad-0801e9fffc0c", "version": 1, "description": "Color/symbol decoder placed adjacent to a chart or diagram." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:08.703+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "01f2e88c-2975-4a1b-a56d-add67fdb0faf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "net sales concentration: 60%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-64d3-706e-a45a-3380525be952", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "ELF's Major Customers: Along with our direct e-commerce channels, we have strong relationships with our retail customers such as Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty and other leading retailers that have enabled us to expand distribution both domestically and internationally. 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"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6082ca30-3ff5-4c87-ae2b-6aa66444b84c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Movers+Shakers employed at least one Ex-DOS member who defended Raniere’s branding of women, and the employment was during the time it was well known by the public of the cult’s practices.(1) Raniere was ultimately arrested in Mexico where the former employee also split time working between New York.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:09.253+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ba19b6f8-53cb-4868-ab67-7e507b70e336", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "NEW YORK -- The leader of a secretive group in upstate New York turned female followers into brainwashed \"slaves\" who were branded with his initials and coerced into having sex, authorities alleged on Monday in a criminal complaint charging him with sex-trafficking. Keith Raniere, co-founder of the group called Nxivm, was arrested in Mexico and returned to Texas Monday, authorities said. 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Keith Raniere, co-founder of the group called Nxivm, was arrested in Mexico and returned to Texas Monday, authorities said.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-64d3-706e-a45a-4dd369416d9b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.66 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: LinkedIn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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