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        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-07-16 23:04:27.787581+00",
          "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
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        "pageNumber": 6,
        "whyItWorks": null,
        "antipattern": null,
        "cardinality": "optional",
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      {
        "tool": {
          "name": "Villain naming",
          "slug": "villain-naming",
          "status": "active",
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          "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2",
          "version": 1,
          "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369",
          "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.",
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          "categoryName": null,
          "categorySlug": null
        },
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        "layer": "slide",
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        "matchId": "92f8e388-bd21-4c3b-b8bf-85bd2454d39b",
        "evidence": "Robert/Michael Greenberg, Gil N. Schwartzberg, 'Other' Greenbergs, and CFO John Vandemore.",
        "pageRefs": null,
        "priority": null,
        "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis",
        "confidence": 0.7,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-07-16 23:04:27.992258+00",
          "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 8,
        "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n  journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n  guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n  cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n  response usually generates more attention for your thesis.",
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      },
      {
        "tool": {
          "name": "Villain slide",
          "slug": "villain-slide",
          "status": "active",
          "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters",
          "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659",
          "version": 1,
          "bodyDocId": null,
          "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually",
          "familyLabel": null,
          "categoryName": null,
          "categorySlug": null
        },
        "agent": null,
        "layer": "slide",
        "agents": null,
        "matchId": "4a0dc19d-ffe9-40aa-a9fb-6cd80953a9e2",
        "evidence": "Recent revenue growth aside, Skechers' management team has presided over a blinding array of scandals, lawsuits, and questionable associations.",
        "pageRefs": null,
        "priority": null,
        "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters",
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-07-16 23:04:27.951489+00",
          "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 8,
        "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete",
        "antipattern": null,
        "cardinality": null,
        "narrativePurpose": null
      },
      {
        "tool": {
          "name": "Villain slide",
          "slug": "villain-slide",
          "status": "active",
          "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters",
          "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659",
          "version": 1,
          "bodyDocId": null,
          "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually",
          "familyLabel": null,
          "categoryName": null,
          "categorySlug": null
        },
        "agent": null,
        "layer": "slide",
        "agents": null,
        "matchId": "01698e37-9864-4ac5-ab76-aca9333a7676",
        "evidence": "Despite a recent Board overhaul, we believe the fundamental dynamic remains unchanged: there is no effective counterweight to the Greenbergs.",
        "pageRefs": null,
        "priority": null,
        "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters",
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-07-16 23:04:28.073503+00",
          "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 9,
        "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete",
        "antipattern": null,
        "cardinality": null,
        "narrativePurpose": null
      },
      {
        "tool": {
          "name": "Slide recipe: the peer-gap chart",
          "slug": "peer-gap-chart-recipe",
          "status": "active",
          "bestFor": null,
          "canonId": "019df269-2b04-75bc-ad85-e0179264bdd7",
          "version": 1,
          "bodyDocId": "019df269-2ae1-771d-9cd1-193a2e25f21c",
          "description": "The single most-copied slide in activism. This is the exact layout, used",
          "familyLabel": "slide-recipe",
          "categoryName": "Slide",
          "categorySlug": "slide"
        },
        "agent": "designer",
        "layer": "slide",
        "agents": [
          "designer"
        ],
        "matchId": "40e879a2-5121-4c6a-a85a-843773eed92e",
        "evidence": "Comparison of Relative Purchase Commitments Versus Peers",
        "pageRefs": null,
        "priority": null,
        "whenToUse": null,
        "confidence": 0.7,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-07-17 03:28:24.257759+00",
          "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 24,
        "whyItWorks": null,
        "antipattern": null,
        "cardinality": null,
        "narrativePurpose": null
      },
      {
        "tool": {
          "name": "CEO quote contradiction",
          "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction",
          "status": "active",
          "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever",
          "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6",
          "version": 1,
          "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415",
          "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.",
          "familyLabel": null,
          "categoryName": null,
          "categorySlug": null
        },
        "agent": null,
        "layer": "slide",
        "agents": null,
        "matchId": "5553edf2-4783-4e16-9fc9-dfd4d4f10489",
        "evidence": "quote: \"On or about March 19, 1990, Franklin reported to Schwartzberg that preliminary financial statements showed that LA Gear's first quarter GPM was 34.98%... Schwartzberg instructed Franklin to proceed to alter the i",
        "pageRefs": null,
        "priority": null,
        "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever",
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-07-17 03:28:24.337988+00",
          "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 25,
        "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n  target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n  you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n  which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.",
        "antipattern": null,
        "cardinality": null,
        "narrativePurpose": null
      }
    ],
    "frameworks": [
      {
        "matchId": "33764520-aa9d-4cac-82f3-cdd9f2760f71",
        "evidence": "Citing past successful short-selling calls to build credibility.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:50.118+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 3,
        "frameworkName": "authority-citation"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "7be72a24-42a9-41d2-8dd2-9d71b37a64a4",
        "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames specific individuals as 'villains' or sources of risk to the company's credibility.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:52.69+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 8,
        "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "21add462-c23f-4c91-9865-5eb211347691",
        "evidence": "The slide systematically lists individuals and entities as 'red flags' to build a case against the current board.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:55.804+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 9,
        "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "bd2d0377-7624-46f9-948e-64333c1d050e",
        "evidence": "The slide contrasts past growth performance with the argument that these drivers are now exhausted.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:52.709+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 13,
        "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "f3425b95-ae91-447d-a765-c747ffbd1a11",
        "evidence": "The slide presents negative channel checks to contradict official company narratives.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.85,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:52.06+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 14,
        "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "275d0b6c-3a3b-4f31-8d71-17de67d15ebe",
        "evidence": "Direct comparison of Skechers against a peer group of footwear brands across multiple performance metrics.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:53.195+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 15,
        "frameworkName": "comparison_frame"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "f2b8ecec-b966-4c26-ada6-f7765a209a01",
        "evidence": "The slide uses a quantitative model to demonstrate that consensus expectations are mathematically unlikely, preempting a bull case.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:52.709+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 16,
        "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "3b39b6c5-28e9-476b-bfb4-8791b48c891f",
        "evidence": "The headline is a declarative statement of the thesis.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 1,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:52.436+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 19,
        "frameworkName": "action-titles"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "b9e7e40f-71ee-4cdb-801d-24e1b0911f05",
        "evidence": "The slide frames the company's management as having misled shareholders, leading to lawsuits.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:54.398+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 20,
        "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "35f78fa8-91d1-4482-a993-0ba88e71217e",
        "evidence": "Highlighting accounting discrepancies and inventory aging to suggest financial misrepresentation.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:53.561+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 21,
        "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "853752e6-61e7-4132-aa3d-81249f9f206c",
        "evidence": "Highlighting inventory/COGS divergence as a red flag for financial manipulation",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:53.944+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 22,
        "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "9904736a-02ba-413e-bd71-9f95529cc200",
        "evidence": "The slide frames a specific financial metric (purchase commitments) as a red flag for potential inventory or revenue manipulation.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.85,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:54.125+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
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        },
        "pageNumber": 23,
        "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "b925d9b1-4949-4048-8ce0-52d3834426ba",
        "evidence": "Direct comparison of Skechers against a peer group to highlight an outlier metric.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:53.949+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
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        },
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        "frameworkName": "comparison_frame"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "5c64b513-e583-444f-8b61-21333d49eac9",
        "evidence": "Uses SEC legal complaint to establish pattern of behavior",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:55.128+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
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        "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "a52b0f63-8954-438b-b5cd-913ecb7facb6",
        "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames accounting changes as a deliberate attempt to obfuscate business drivers and reduce transparency.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:54.238+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
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          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": 29,
        "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "eb910dec-11fe-4930-af1d-368eced06b3c",
        "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames the reduction in disclosures as a negative indicator of transparency, typical of fraud-exposure analysis.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:55.129+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
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        },
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      },
      {
        "matchId": "2b1ca2ea-1a4e-4ff9-bd9a-d51e92cc581b",
        "evidence": "The slide uses a peer group table to frame the valuation of Skechers relative to competitors.",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:55.597+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
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        },
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        "frameworkName": "comparison_frame"
      },
      {
        "matchId": "ed60e70b-8ecd-4607-a699-4d0e12116256",
        "evidence": "Table shows bridge from Street consensus to SPCM estimate via discount factor",
        "framework": null,
        "confidence": 0.9,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-05-02 20:31:55.391+00",
          "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
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        },
        "pageNumber": 34,
        "frameworkName": "valuation-bridge"
      }
    ],
    "patterns": []
  },
  "storymakers": null,
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  "review": null,
  "activistThesis": {
    "tone": "adversarial",
    "notes": "Classic Spruce Point short report template (teal/grey palette, red-box callouts, yellow highlight boxes). Memorable cover: clown shoes surrounded by rats with 'A Skechy Investment' tag. Thesis built on five pillars: (1) governance rot / 'Skechy Characters', (2) China revenue slowdown via proprietary channel checks, (3) inventory aging and purchase commitment buildup, (4) declining cash flow quality and disclosure transparency, (5) multiple derating to $17.92-$25.83. No single named human author — institutional firm attribution only (Ben Axler is founder but not credited on document). Short report: SCPM discloses short position in disclaimer but does not quantify stake — stake_disclosed_pct left null per guidance. Heavy use of peer-gap tables (Dragon Boat Festival, purchase commitments, comparable companies). Page 3 shows Spruce Point's own prior track record (Oatly -88%, WD-40, Church & Dwight) as credibility anchor — a genre-specific pattern for short sellers. Thesis_types: fraud_exposure (Schwartzberg/inventory concerns), governance_board (family control, board red flags), multiple_rerating (argues premium P/E should compress to 9x).",
    "kpisCited": [
      {
        "detail": "169 at YE2021, 10-year high, 24% above pre-COVID averages",
        "metric": "Days Inventory Outstanding"
      },
      {
        "detail": "Up 82% YoY to $2B — 32% of LTM revenue vs. 19% peer average and 21% pre-COVID",
        "metric": "Open purchase commitments"
      },
      {
        "detail": "-20% to -30% YTD per Spruce Point channel checks, vs. Street consensus implying +7%",
        "metric": "China revenue YoY growth"
      },
      {
        "detail": "Skechers -28%, second-worst; Nike +171%, Anta +139%, Puma +188%",
        "metric": "Dragon Boat Festival GMV YoY"
      },
      {
        "detail": "-13.0% in Q1 2022 and -2.3% in 2021, vs. +8.3% in 2018",
        "metric": "Spruce Point adjusted FCF margin"
      },
      {
        "detail": "LTM -62% lower than headline reported CFO after NCI and tax-on-equity-awards adjustments",
        "metric": "Spruce Point adjusted operating cash flow"
      },
      {
        "detail": "Stuck at 23.3% of revenue in 2021, barely changed from 24.3% in 2011 despite 4x revenue growth",
        "metric": "G&A expense ex-reported items"
      },
      {
        "detail": "42.9% of votes via Class B super-voting shares (10 votes per share)",
        "metric": "Greenberg family voting control"
      },
      {
        "detail": "92% Buy, 8% Hold, 0% Sell",
        "metric": "Sell-side analyst recommendation mix"
      },
      {
        "detail": "0.5% in 2021 vs. 1.1% 2015-19 average — under-reserved",
        "metric": "Inventory reserves as % of inventory"
      },
      {
        "detail": "$26M in 2021 — 312% of prior-year reserves vs. 226% historical average",
        "metric": "Inventory write-offs"
      },
      {
        "detail": "Business -71%, Risk Factors -17%, MD&A -66%; Notes page count -35%",
        "metric": "2019-2021 10-K word count decline"
      }
    ],
    "closingAsk": "Sell or avoid Skechers shares — we see 30% to 50% downside to $18.60-$26.00 as China slows, inventory bloats, and governance deteriorates.",
    "extraction": {
      "at": "2026-04-22 21:39:33+00",
      "model": "unknown-legacy",
      "runId": null,
      "seconds": 171.97832,
      "promptVersion": null
    },
    "scqaReward": "30% to 50% downside to $18.60-$26.00 by applying a 9x P/E (vs. Street's assumed multiple and premium shoe peers) to reduced 2022E earnings on -25% Asia-Pacific revenue contraction.",
    "thesisTypes": [
      "fraud_exposure",
      "governance_board",
      "multiple_rerating"
    ],
    "top3Reasons": [
      "China channel checks show sales down -20% to -30% YoY vs. Street expecting +7% growth",
      "Inventory days at 10-year high of 169; purchase commitments up 82% to $2B — third inventory blow-up looming",
      "Family-controlled governance with SEC-charged LA Gear inventory-fraud advisor still on payroll"
    ],
    "scqaSituation": "Skechers is a family-run 'fast follower' footwear company that rode a 27% China CAGR to $6.3bn revenue and near-universal Street love — 92% Buy ratings, zero Sells, and a $58.67 consensus target implying 58% upside.",
    "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point is short Skechers after a forensic review of the family-controlled footwear 'fast follower,' arguing the stock carries 30%-50% downside to $18.60-$26.00. On-the-ground China channel checks show sales down -20% to -30% YoY versus Street expectations of +7% growth, with Skechers the second-worst performer in the June Dragon Boat Festival (-28% GMV) while peers posted double- and triple-digit gains. Inventory days sit at a 10-year high of 169, and open purchase commitments with foreign manufacturers rose 82% to $2 billion — 51% above pre-COVID averages and 64% higher than peers — setting up a third inventory blow-up after 2015 (-46%) and 2018 (-28%). The Greenberg family controls 42.9% of the vote, continues to pay SEC-sanctioned LA Gear inventory-fraud advisor Gil Schwartzberg, and has reduced 10-K disclosures while Spruce Point-adjusted operating cash flow runs 62% below headline.",
    "primaryDemands": [
      "Sell or avoid SKX shares — Strong Sell opinion",
      "Scrutinize inventory accounting and purchase commitment buildup",
      "Question Greenberg family governance, nepotism, and related-party transactions",
      "Investigate continued use of SEC-sanctioned advisor Gil Schwartzberg"
    ],
    "scqaResolution": "Investors should sell or avoid SKX: Spruce Point is short and expects a third inventory blow-up (after 2015's -46% and 2018's -28%) as China growth collapses into a bloated cost base.",
    "thesisOneLiner": "Skechers is a governance-rotten, family-run 'fast follower' whose China growth is collapsing and inventory is bloating — 30%-50% downside to $18.60-$26.00.",
    "precedentsCited": [
      "LA Gear 1990 inventory fraud (SEC v. Schwartzberg, 1995)",
      "Skechers Q3 2015 inventory miss (-46% stock decline, Steamfitters shareholder lawsuit)",
      "Skechers Q2 2018 inventory miss (-28% stock decline, Laborers shareholder lawsuit)",
      "Spruce Point's own Oatly short (-88%), WD-40, Church & Dwight prior consumer calls",
      "ZST Digital Networks Chinese stock scam (Schwartzberg investor link)"
    ],
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