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Cover image of canaries fleeing a mine entrance with rats is a memorable visual metaphor. Slide 3 explicitly invokes Spruce Point's own prior shorts (UAMY, LODE, OTLY) as a track-record precedent — a pattern worth flagging across short-seller decks. Slide 6 overlays red-flag events on a stock-price chart (timeline-of-trouble pattern). Slide 12 uses a 'minus-minus-equals' subtraction framework to strip down headline cash flow. Cover credits only the firm, no individual signatory visible; Spruce Point is founded/run by Ben Axler but he is not named on the cover. No SOTP because thesis is fraud/quality-of-earnings, not breakup.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "AMR claims 16.2-16.3m tons; independent Marshall Miller report shows 15.6m tons", "metric": "2021 coal production (tons)" }, { "detail": "MSHA data implies 400,000-500,000 tons overstated in 2020 and 2021", "metric": "Production overstatement" }, { "detail": "AMR reports $226m; Spruce Point's reconciliation of import records yields ~$95-99m", "metric": "Brazil export revenue 2021" }, { "detail": "Up to $690m estimated from cash interest expense vs. reported balances", "metric": "Hidden interest-bearing debt" }, { "detail": "$211m, ~48% of cumulative operating cash flow over the period", "metric": "One-time tax refunds 2019-2021" }, { "detail": "$24m sold March 11-30, 2022 (CFO $5.5m, CEO $3.7m, COO $5.9m, CCO $2.9m, CAO $4.2m) without timely Form 4 filings", "metric": "Undisclosed insider sales" }, { "detail": "AMR 4.3x reported / 5.6x SP-adjusted vs. peer average 3.3x", "metric": "EV/2023E EBITDA" }, { "detail": "AMR owns 65% of Dominion Terminal Associates; Spruce Point alleges off-EBITDA cost shifting", "metric": "DTA terminal ownership" }, { "detail": "$564m in fines and penalties recorded by Good Jobs First, mostly safety and environmental", "metric": "ANR predecessor fines" }, { "detail": "India represented 29% of revenues (~$310m), up from 13% a year earlier", "metric": "Q1 2022 customer concentration" }, { "detail": "2020 and 2021 coal margins per ton higher than peers by 42% and 12.5%, respectively", "metric": "Margin per ton overstatement" } ], "closingAsk": "Short Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE: AMR); Spruce Point estimates 40-60% downside to a $60.58-$90.87 per-share target.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:36:41+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 158.23839, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "40-60% downside to a $60.58-$90.87 per-share target from $151.45, derived from 3-4x 2023E EBITDA on $705m adjusted EBITDA and 5-8x proven-and-probable reserves versus peers.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "MSHA data suggests AMR overstated 2020-2021 coal production by 400,000-500,000 tons", "Spruce Point estimates up to $690m of 'hidden' interest-bearing debt obscured by AMR's reporting choices", "Insiders quietly sold $24m of stock outside Form 4 windows; CFO Eidson previously named in a fraud complaint" ], "scqaSituation": "AMR is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed from the post-bankruptcy assets of Alpha Natural Resources and Contura Energy, riding cyclical commodity highs to near-all-time-high share prices.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point opens a short on Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE: AMR), the post-bankruptcy roll-up of Alpha Natural Resources and Contura Energy, arguing its near-all-time-high stock price masks systematic financial misreporting. A mine-by-mine analysis using MSHA data implies 400,000-500,000 tons of inflated 2020-2021 coal production; sourced Brazilian import records show only $95-99m of revenue versus the $226m AMR booked; freight and Dominion Terminal Associates accounting choices flatter EBITDA; and 48% of 2019-2021 cash flow came from $211m of one-time NOL tax refunds. Spruce Point estimates up to $690m of 'hidden' interest-bearing debt and flags CFO Charles Andrew Eidson, who was named in a prior West Virginia EPA fraud complaint and has a suspended Virginia CPA license. Insiders quietly sold $24m of stock between March 11-30, 2022 outside Form 4 windows. Multiple-of-EBITDA and reserve frameworks point to 40-60% downside to $60.58-$90.87.", "primaryDemands": [ "Short AMR with a Strong Sell opinion", "Investors should price AMR at a discount to coal peers given accounting concerns and lower-quality assets", "Regulators and shareholders should scrutinize undisclosed insider stock sales and Form 4 compliance", "Discount AMR's reported cash flow for one-time tax refunds, DTA terminal costs, and abnormal China spot sales" ], "scqaResolution": "Short AMR with a Strong Sell — the market should reprice it to a discount to peers given accounting concerns, lower-quality coal assets, and one-time China and India export tailwinds that are already reversing.", "thesisOneLiner": "AMR masks production, revenues and liabilities while management quietly dumps stock at cyclical coal highs; Spruce Point sees 40-60% downside to $60-90 per share.", "precedentsCited": [ "Spruce Point short of US Antimony (UAMY) 2012", "Spruce Point short of Comstock Mining 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A controlling company of a mine is defined as the company 'controlling the coal, particularly the sale of the coal.' Most often, but not always, this is the owner of the mine.\nSource: U.S. Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration Form 7000-2, 'Quarterly Mine Employment and Coal Production Report.'", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We conducted a mine-by-mine analysis. If AMR is over-reporting production, there is a strong possibility its revenues and coal inventories are overstated. Overstated inventories can also to overstated margins and profitability. 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By late October that changed to 90%. By year end, it reported selling just 1.27m of the 1.50m tons. 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Also, notice carefully that 96% of Met segment sales had been priced by October 29, 2021 and that accounted for 15.1m tons. By year end, 15.57m tons were sold. 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However, AMR's own pricing chart shows that coal prices for U.S. Low Vol reached approximately $440 per metric ton. 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They should be identical.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.344+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "70f2f580-ecb1-4819-84cb-8c2b976011dd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Period of low economic activity, China trade war, and the S&P 500 fell almost 10% in Dec 2018. Why did transport costs explode? Why were thermal coal sales negative. Notice the discrepancy also turned negative", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.344+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a6b48027-73fe-4259-9f8f-ff7deb39f06f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Trading & Logistics Segment Revenue", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9a-7d91358ca451", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It wasn't until Contura Energy merged with the old Alpha Natural (ANR) it was revealed that its major source of third-party coal purchases was ANR. Given the closeness of the people and relationships between companies, there is a high degree of risk the transactions were not arms-length. In fact, after closely looking at the results, we see large anomalies appear right after the merger closed. 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The Company is claiming significantly more revenue, even inclusive of freight revenue which it does not break out by country.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:54.298+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8d0a144f-6d9f-4384-9272-bfbd3b9dcce7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.0055 }, "kind": "list", "text": "1) AMR says, \"Our international sales contracts are typically priced FOB at the shipping port from which such coal is delivered and on a metric ton basis.\"\n2) Price ranges derived from Brazil bituminous coal import records (FOB) and from U.S. EIA export records (FAS)\n3) Converted to metric tons multiplying by 1.1023", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:54.298+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "210a56c7-a387-4ac0-92d4-7d2d85fadf67", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Revenue: $99 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:48+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9b-47d0c64302e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "AMR says, \"Our international sales contracts are typically priced FOB at the shipping port from which such coal is delivered and on a metric ton basis.\" — AMR 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:48+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9b-40bd0291c948", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.0095 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AMR filings and Spruce Point analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.572+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2811c6e3-6353-477d-8e8e-6eec640d7ea4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Where Have All The Coal Reserves Gone? (Table of reserve data from 2016-2021)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.572+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8a76e4f9-769e-4311-a91d-d606ab030b5b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "AMR's Evaporating Coal Reserves", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.572+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7513bd65-f1d7-4f66-a7ee-1ea244dd085a", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "e87ae382-de35-4aef-9017-ad1743053a92", "evidence": "The slide explicitly questions the validity of reported reserves and implies manipulation or misleading disclosure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.572+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 36, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 50, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 21, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "54dab807-671b-4943-b069-356d1be04852", "matchId": "b43b00f8-85e0-4ce2-b814-14f4230625f2", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents evidence of AMR's poor positioning.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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AMR didn't discuss any reasons why on its year end conference call. Instead, buried in the 10-K it mentioned \"poor geologic\" conditions caused a revision in economic circumstances.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:55.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0761d6c-f20e-4858-be98-f3b2519b0cdd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Granted coal prices were soft in 2019 and fell into 2020 during the pandemic, but this did not lead many coal companies to drastically reduce their proven and probable reserves – except for AMR which cut proven and probable reserves by almost 50%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:49+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9b-9a09f2924d0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Total Proven and Probable Reserves: -49.0%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:49+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9b-a10d63f97796", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.0030499999999999998 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"During the fourth quarter of 2020, changes in mine plans and the determination that certain mineral reserves previously forecasted to be mined were no longer considered economic due to poor geologic conditions reduced forecasted cash flows for one Met and one CAPP - Thermal asset group to amounts below those required for full recoverability.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:55.197+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e62f2802-d383-462f-84cd-7309c3266267", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "During the fourth quarter of 2020, changes in mine plans and the determination that certain mineral reserves previously forecasted to be mined were no longer considered economic due to poor geologic conditions reduced forecasted cash flows for one Met and one CAPP - Thermal asset group to amounts below those required for full recoverability. — AMR 10-K, p. 106", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:49+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9b-9e71ee4d0e32", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.00875 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company SEC Filings. Note: In short tons (ex: Warrior and Coronado). 1) % of reserves Met Coal as follows: BTU (6%), Arch (9%), Warrior (100%), Coronado (90%), AMR (91%). 2) 2020 production as follows: Warrior (7.1 MMt), AMR (13.9m), Coronado (17.0 MMt), Peabody (128.8), Arch (61.7). 3) 2019 adjusted to remove NAPP reserves", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The consent form is increasingly being signed by a principal lower down the chain of command. Furthermore, there are subtle language changes being made that raise our concern. 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The $3.4 billion merger was completed in June 2011.(1) Here we also observe that no revaluation was made to the coal inventories upon consolidation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:55.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0cc9c50f-410b-4159-b022-40be4d4aaada", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Arch Coal 8-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We see that inventories are first increased by $13.1 million and then again by $34.8 million. Based on historical precedent provided earlier, revisions to coal inventories of this magnitude appear rare. Furthermore, ANR's inventory appears to turnover quickly at approximately 21 days in 2017, leading us to believe they should be close to fair value. A 42% increase to its inventory fair value appears highly unusual especially in light of the closeness of relationship between the parties. 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I did want to mention those quickly. There's the technical accounting view and then there's my personal view. The technical accounting views says that -- what -- we had 3 particular items that were problematic from a controls perspective. I think all 3 of those from a personal view would qualify something of a foot fault, but technically they do qualify. We do have plans. In many instances, these have already been remediated, but in total they will be remediated by the end of the first quarter. 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DTA provides us with the ability to fulfill a broad range of customer coal quality requirements through coal blending, while also providing storage capacity and transportation flexibility. — AMR 2021 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:50+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9c-808de559bbbf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Investor Presentation – March 2022 / June 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The segment reported over $1.0 billion of revenue in 2018. Below, AMR says it builds in margin for terminal fees from using the DTA to export coal. We will show AMR avoided recognizing any of the DTA as an operating expense and thus reports artificially high margins.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:56.032+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "db8cc956-29fa-41e4-b5ce-a792df361fb1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "operating margin: 100%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbec-b21552ab5b9b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "other", "text": "Books Revenues But What About Expenses ?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Other", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa90-743c-8bf6-20d1fbe82b6d", "version": 1, "description": "Fallback when no canonical kind applies." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Unclassified", "slug": "unclassified", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05ca-77db-81fb-db7d4234bbc0", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "unclassified", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:56.032+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7d3279ff-9ad1-4acf-9feb-9b2ea4b19653", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Flexible Trading and Logistics business enhances strategic positioning and provides global customer access. Our Trading and Logistics business enhances the variety of coal products available for us to service export customers in the Americas, Europe and Asia, while also providing us with strategic East Coast port access. Through our 65.0% ownership of DTA, we have approximately 14 million tons of export capacity and guaranteed low-cost port access for our coal. DTA is a key pillar of our strategy to cater to the export met coal market. This facility complements our met operations by blending captive and third-party coal to achieve a broader portfolio of coal qualities. We typically build in margin for terminal fees, overhead, and profit when purchasing third-party coal. Additionally, we sell capacity via throughput contracts to third-party operators. Our Trading and Logistics Operations provide access to international markets and further diversify our revenue sources.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:56.032+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5810b85a-4241-4487-846b-33a1a8a69d7c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AMR S-1", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We will show why we believe this to be a dubious claim on the next slide. Below, we show how AMR runs losses associated with DTA as non-operating (below EBIT), while capital contributions to fund losses are recorded as investments.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:52.954+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "18765384-4e8b-4655-83b5-66fbded5518f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Despite owning 65% and controlling the majority of DTA's operating capacity, AMR claims it doesn't control the asset because \"two reps must be present for business to be conducted and unanimous approval of both parities is needed for decisions to be taken\".", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:51+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9d-2695efc322ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "On March 31, 2017, the Company acquired a portion of another partner's interest in DTA for $13,293 thereby increasing its ownership in DTA to sixty-five percent... [quote continues]", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:52.954+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "909a4285-d77f-4f86-96e2-0c77cfbb057f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "On March 31, 2017, the Company acquired a portion of another partner's interest in DTA for $13,293 thereby increasing its ownership in DTA to sixty-five percent... the Company has concluded that it does not have the power to direct the activities that most significantly impact its economic performance and therefore is not the primary beneficiary. 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If this is the case, why are company legal documents signed by just one partner, in particular the VP of Optimization and Distribution at Contura Energy / AMR. Furthermore, DTA does not appear to be nearly as critical to Arch as it is to AMR. 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The facility has a rated throughput capacity of 20 million tons of coal per year and ground storage capacity of approximately 1.7 million tons. The facility primarily serves international customers, as well as domestic coal users located along the Atlantic coast of the United States. 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Our analysis on the following slide will illuminate some surprising observations....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.106+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ef094988-0748-4f1f-b106-d2f6c8560a21", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1) To increase DTA ownership from 40.6% to 65.0%. Source: AMR's SEC filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.106+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3b3716ac-fd65-4b92-93d3-0f936bedb92d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "2) To increase ownership from 21.875% to 35.0%. Source: Arch's SEC filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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However, we find that over the long-run AMR has recognized just 60% of total equity losses. This leads us to believe that AMR is over-stating net income by under-reporting DTA losses. 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In the case filing, we learn that DTA sued its engineer claiming $5.4 million of damages. The case was settled.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.218+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0a29f108-5203-4848-b8d5-113c4d03e94e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.33, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "40. Collins materially breached its contract... 43. ...incurred or will continue to incur damages... in excess of $5,400,000.00...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:53.218+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "75c6a6d5-38ed-4e34-8bb6-b8d10e4da770", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Case 4:20-cv-00192-RAJ-RJK, DTA vs. Collins Engineering", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Because transportation costs represent a significant portion of the total cost of coal for our customers...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:58.27+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f9dc29f-4d3b-491e-936d-e8e13e43141d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "An increase in transportation costs could have an adverse effect on our ability to increase or to maintain production on a profit-making basis and could therefore adversely affect our revenues and earnings. Because transportation costs represent a significant portion of the total cost of coal for our customers, increases in transportation costs could also reduce overall demand for coal or make our coal production less competitive than coal produced from other sources or other regions. — AMR Disclosures", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:52+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9d-8193fa5e4e32", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: CONSOL March 2022 Investor Presentation", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Coal is mined primarily using the truck and shovel mining method. We control approximately 700.1 million tons of coal reserves in the Powder River Basin and all of the coal reserves are assigned to active mines. There are approximately 600 salaried and hourly employees in our Powder River Basin operations. Belle Ayr consists of one mine that produces sub-bituminous, low sulfur steam coal for sale primarily to utility companies. Belle Ayr extracts coal from a coal seam that is 75 feet thick. The mine sells 100% raw coal and no washing is necessary. Belle Ayr shipped 15.8 million tons of coal in 2014. Belle Ayr has the advantage of shipping its coal on both of the major western railroads, the BNSF Railway and the Union Pacific Railroad, to power plants located throughout the West, Midwest and the South. Eagle Butte consists of one mine that produces sub-bituminous, low sulfur steam coal for sale primarily to utility companies. 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PRB is land-locked in Wyoming, and coal must be shipped via rail to customers in the West, Midwest and South. 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AMR has relatively high maintenance capex spending to its gross property, plant and equipment base. 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A peer analysis below shows AMR is an outlier at almost 3x the industry. Days sales outstanding (DSO) is also rising while earnings quality declines as Net Income exceeds Cash From Operations. It appears China made large purchases in Q3 and Q4 of 2021. AMR's top foreign customer now contributed 29% of sales in Q1 2022 vs. 13% in Q1 2021. Increasing freight and handling cost per ton tends to make AMR export coal sales less attractive, all else equal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "31e94151-84c8-4a43-963f-3b499f4538e0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AMR SEC filings and Spruce Point Analysis. 1) Days Sales Outstanding defined as 365 divided by LTM Average Revenue / LTM Average Receivables", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "58acd7c6-4b90-48b9-906b-33a81460cf59", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Peer Analysis (AR / LTM Sales) comparing AMR to Arch, Peabody, Warrior, Ramaco, Alliance, CONSOL, and Coronado.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7afcb73d-a940-488f-8c9d-35ef91e2ee1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Financial performance table showing quarterly metrics from 2020 to Q1 2022, including Sales, A/R, Freight costs, and DSO.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e73d0ea1-0f3e-4b70-80c5-d97ef67bdcef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.055 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Signs of Increasing Financial Stress", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e14ee076-693c-45a1-9189-f93aa2c2b560", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "17e65207-8e49-45dc-8029-96dcca09e667", "evidence": "Highlighting deteriorating earnings quality and receivables-to-sales ratio as signs of financial stress.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.171+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 66, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 105, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 51, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "1c6c8d3e-e53b-45f5-91da-e5c362f50fac", "matchId": "b43b00f8-85e0-4ce2-b814-14f4230625f2", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document concludes with a clear call to action and valuation analysis.", "position": 3, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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One potential explanation is that AMR is engaging in large intra or interperiod borrowing and “window” dressing its financial statements at quarter end to portray its financial condition in a more favorable light than exists in reality.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.214+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "000f5a66-956f-4944-9aad-def38df9b60d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Cash paid for interest", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbec-f4cbaef3135f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.783, "x": 0.143, "y": 0.00825 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Interest expense. Interest expense decreased $4.9 million, or 6.5%, for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the prior year period, primarily due to a decrease in debt outstanding. Refer to Note 14 for additional information.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.214+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bc25db10-879d-4b2c-99b5-502e6c01f2ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.12, "x": 0.143, "y": 0.00915 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AMR 2021 10-K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Using these range of assumptions for its incremental borrowing cost, we estimate that AMR’s “Hidden” Interest-Bearing debt obligations are $138 to $690 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9e-4f5c4b76894e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Hidden Interest Bearing Debt: $690 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9e-53712d2547c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AMR uses a discount rate for certain pension obligations near 2.6%, its weighted average financing lease expense is 9.6%, and its Term-Loan interest cost is 10%. Using these range of assumptions for its incremental borrowing cost, we estimate that AMR's \"Hidden\" Interest-Bearing debt obligations are $138 to $690 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:56.119+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2bde3a64-1a25-4796-afc5-eafed0fda24f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AMR financial reports and Spruce Point Estimates", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This could indicate that AMR was nearly out of cash and draining capital resources.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:59.116+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "656df153-a7c7-4fce-9bd3-a240c854baf1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Looking carefully at AMR's reported interest income relative to its unrestricted and restricted cash balance we see a startling observation: AMR reported an effective savings rate of between 2 and 6 basis points in Q4 2021, depending on whether it earns interest income on restricted assets. This could indicate that AMR was nearly out of cash and draining capital resources.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:52+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9e-0738ef312474", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Effective Savings Rate: 0.06%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:52+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9e-093dc32f85d9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AMR SEC filings, Spruce Point analysis (1) Defined as Interest Income In Period / (current and prior period cash) x 4", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Removing these benefits, we see that AMR’s core business operations is not nearly as profitable as it seems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:32:57.344+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c956aec4-93df-44c8-a3cc-fdd9c33e5768", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Removing these benefits, we see that AMR’s core business operations is not nearly as profitable as it seems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9e-93e9b6206625", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Core Cash Provided From Continuing Mining Operations: $184.3", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-be9e-968a6eb193e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.0088 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1) See 2021 10-K page 103 – “major components of cash flows related to discontinued operations”\n2) AMR adds back equity loss in its DTA affiliate as if it’s a non-cash cost... \n3) See “Supplemental cash flow information”...\n4) See 2021 10-K page 71", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Now that these “one-time” benefits are behind AMR, cash flow will be more reliant on core coal mining operations. 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Source: 2021 10-K; 1) Current Q1 10-Q, prior 10-Q", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The change doesn't appear to be arbitrary. 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"nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "Uses a combination of management quotes and internal data tables to derive a revenue estimate that challenges the sustainability of the revenue stream.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "quote_block", "big_number", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:33:01.067+00", "seconds": 3.842, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-374c176318da/96", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-374c176318da", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-374c176318da#slide-96", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-374c176318da.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.425, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "$174.66 x 1.9m tons = $331.8 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:33:01.067+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fb434fd2-2626-4240-9ffc-c5370aecd55d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Based on a November 2021 disclosure by AMR that it had sold 1.9 million met tons to China, we estimate minimum China export sales for 2021 were $332 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, 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Subsequently, AMR has no further disclosures about sales into China and it wasn’t noted as country with export revenue exceeding 10% of total revenue in Q1 2022. For the year, we estimate its average export selling price for met coal was $174.66 per ton. Based on our research, we believe AMR likely accepted a discount to market prices to sell into China as there is a perception that U.S. coal is not particularly fitting for the China market. 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The proxy statement still shows his recent holdings are 129,760 shares as of March 16, 2020, not 99,029 shares.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:33:03.063+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eefc9f2d-4e71-4f81-a548-ba2b96022799", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "On May 16, 2022 CEO Stetson filed a Form 4 notifying investors that he sold 65,000 shares on March 9, 2022 at $120.79. This disclosure is more than two months after the sale! Something is still irreconcilable with CEO Stetson’s ownership filings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:04:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0394-7243-bea1-66b9d0a7ece2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "image", "text": "SEC Form 4 snippet", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:33:03.063+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0fe5c66b-74b0-4513-bc62-0b0b512047fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Proxy statement ownership table", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:33:03.063+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1f4920db-e8af-4b63-91da-20d70bcdff3d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Proxy filed March 30, 2022", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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