{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "slug": "08d6aefbccb5", "title": "Genius Sports Limited (GENI)", "subtitle": "Ben Axler · 2021-08", "author": "Ben Axler", "date": "2021-08-05 00:00:00", "pageCount": 61, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Genius Sports Limited", "targetTicker": "GENI", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "slug": "08d6aefbccb5", "title": "Genius Sports Limited (GENI)", "rawTitle": "64e79e24cb2c6e83baf3c1d6 geni research thesis 8 5 2021", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "authorDisplay": "Ben Axler", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2021-08-64e79e24cb2c6e83baf3c1d6_geni_research_thesis_8-5-2021.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": null, "presentationDate": "2021-08-05 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 21:30:38+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 61, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Genius Sports Limited", "targetTicker": "GENI", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/08d6aefbccb5", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 124.42080116271973 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 61, "pagesIndexed": 61, "pagesWithImages": 61, "pagesWithMetadata": 61, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 397, "chartCount": 4, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 15, "documentToolMatches": 5, "frameworkMatches": 44, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 0, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "28c6d42e-3ed9-431f-b0bb-993f55963995", "evidence": "The deck follows a clear problem-agitate-solution arc, presenting a problem with Genius Sports' current state, agitating it by highlighting various concerns, and implicitly suggesting a solution by shorting or selling the stock.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:21:10.172346+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 7, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem Identification", "beatId": "9847db00-d638-4aae-95dd-90fa8d6c9fcd", "matchId": "28c6d42e-3ed9-431f-b0bb-993f55963995", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck starts by identifying the problem with Genius Sports, highlighting its poor risk/reward investment thesis.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 53, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 8, "name": "Agitation", "beatId": "f3e1ffe1-c3ed-402d-bf3c-dc6cefa18b8e", "matchId": "28c6d42e-3ed9-431f-b0bb-993f55963995", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck agitates the problem by detailing various concerns, including unrealistic growth assumptions, questionable revenue recognition practices, and financial strain.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "31da8521-5bb2-4b5a-9ba3-46d79692e153", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. 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The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "a1173332-d6bd-485e-87fa-5c41616a5bfd", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. 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null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "14c5e51f-a76e-4dad-b820-322757083460", "evidence": "The components mention 'sportsbook customers' and 'industry experts', indicating a frame for the audience.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:30.980091+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 27, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "optional", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "2x2 matrix", "slug": "matrix-2x2", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-50ab-72d1-8afb-3ab0a38e32a8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "BCG matrix, importance/urgency, any axes-and-quadrants frame.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "3ffcb1dd-e27f-4415-94a5-53bf310908d3", "evidence": "The table compares two companies across three metrics, resembling a 2x3 matrix.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.5, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:31.110084+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 28, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Comparison frame", "slug": "comparison-frame", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-484b-7399-a4fc-d14644b99f93", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Two or more states/subjects placed side by side to expose a gap.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "85735fca-b03e-4766-8e8d-73eb1da1b9e0", "evidence": "The slide compares Genius to DraftKings across three metrics.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:31.067122+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 28, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Before-After-Bridge", "slug": "before-after-bridge", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-8604-7188-883f-42370288ad05", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Narrative structure: Paint the before, show the after, explain the bridge", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "19f2a3aa-5188-46ee-9721-4ffac4286212", "evidence": "The table shows a bridge between different estimates.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.5, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:31.240185+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 29, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Waterfall chart", "slug": "waterfall-chart", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "e2799da3-725f-44a9-a093-570f1f388e64", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "3c59bfb3-454b-4b51-abe0-3ce993052769", "evidence": "The slide mentions a 'Revenue and EBITDA estimate bridge table' with Low, High, and Midpoint scenarios.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:31.19654+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 29, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Precedent transaction", "slug": "precedent-transaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-554c-708e-8e19-f6bee3d51b69", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9e2b-7165-a5f9-f94a9758ce38", "description": "You cite a comparable historical transformation — a peer that did\nexactly what you're proposing, with documented outcome. The implicit\nargument: \"this isn't a hypothesis, it's a replication\".\n\nIt is the empirical anchor that makes every other pattern credible. A\npeer-gap chart shows the gap; a sum-of-parts shows the math; a\nprecedent transaction shows the path actually works.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "c1fe5a73-be17-4887-9889-44bda5799b25", "evidence": "The slide mentions a specific acquisition deal.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:31.325194+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 30, "whyItWorks": "- **It converts speculation into pattern-matching.** \"If you do X, Y\n will happen\" becomes \"When [comparable] did X, Y happened, and Y was\n worth [$", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience frame", "slug": "audience-frame", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "2a1eefbd-5be8-4600-898b-49dbfcf73ec8", "version": 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integrity.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:44.27+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 61, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Spruce Point short-seller deck on a freshly de-SPAC'd sports data company. Distinctive cover art (clown + 'Mr. Irrelevant' / scoreboard mashup) is a recurring Spruce Point signature. Heavy use of Tegus / former-employee quote blocks to undermine management claims, and a direct point-by-point rebuttal of Craig-Hallum's sell-side initiation (p13). Explicit attack on a sell-side report and on insider Twitter promotion (p61) is notable. SCQA is strong: catalyst-driven thesis tied to specific lock-up / warrant dates. Author inferred as Ben Axler (Spruce Point founder) — referenced in firm track record but not explicitly signed on cover.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Genius reported 30%, vs. Sportradar ~0%, Entain Sports 14%, Kambi 7.8%", "metric": "Revenue growth 2020" }, { "detail": "25%+ CAGR touted; Spruce Point views as unsustainable post-Premier League boost", "metric": "Management growth target" }, { "detail": "~$120m/yr cash+equity — roughly 6x Sportradar's prior ~$20m/yr NFL deal", "metric": "NFL rights cost" }, { "detail": "Experts estimate Genius at 10-15%, vs. Craig-Hallum's claim of ~30%", "metric": "Sports data market share" }, { "detail": "~11% of league revenue is barter/contra vs. Sportradar at most 5%", "metric": "Noncash VIK revenue" }, { "detail": "12.8x at $16 share price, vs. 7.5x SPAC deal price and 7.7x online-gaming peer average", "metric": "2021E EV/Revenue multiple" }, { "detail": "11.7% positive adjusted EBITDA but ($21m) operating loss — 'no true profitability'", "metric": "Adjusted EBITDA margin FY2020" }, { "detail": "Grew from 8% of revenue in 2018 to 17% in 2020 — financial strain signal", "metric": "Deferred revenue" }, { "detail": "~55m shares: 35m insiders, 11.2m NFL warrants, 9.2m public warrants", "metric": "Near-term share overhang" }, { "detail": "Bull case assumes 5%; industry typical is 1.5-2% for tier-1 exclusive deals", "metric": "Revenue share on gross gaming revenue" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell Genius Sports shares ahead of imminent lock-up expiration and warrant-exercise overhang that will pressure the stock toward Spruce Point's $3.25-$6.50 price target.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:30:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 124.4208, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Applying a 15x 2030E EBITDA multiple to Spruce Point's low and high operating cases, discounted at 10%, yields a $3.25-$6.50 price target — 60-80% downside from the $16 share price at publication.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Genius overpaid ~6x Sportradar's prior NFL deal for rights unlikely to be profitable", "11% 'noncash' VIK/barter revenue inflates growth and risks financial reporting issues", "55m shares of overhang as lock-ups expire set up a near-term selling cascade" ], "scqaSituation": "Genius Sports is a UK-based B2B sports data provider that went public via the DMYD SPAC, pitched as a pick-and-shovel play on U.S. sports betting growth with 25%+ revenue targets and exclusive league rights.", "thesisSummary": "Genius Sports, a UK-based sports data middleman that went public via the DMYD SPAC, has been hyped as a pick-and-shovel sports-betting play but Spruce Point believes the company lacks a durable competitive advantage, is overpaying for exclusive rights (~$120m/yr for the NFL, roughly 6x Sportradar's prior deal), and is inflating growth through value-in-kind 'barter' contracts where it records software-for-rights swaps as revenue at potentially manipulable 'fair values.' Competitors Sportradar, Entain, and Kambi grew 0-14% in 2020 versus Genius's reported 30%, suggesting the outperformance is a one-time Premier League boost rather than durable share gains. With a 60-day lock-up, 11.2m NFL warrants, and 9.2m public warrants all exercisable within weeks — 55m shares of potential overhang — Spruce Point sees 60-80% downside to a $3.25-$6.50 price target based on 15x 2030E EBITDA discounted to present.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell Genius Sports shares on near-term downside catalysts", "Challenge management on VIK/contra-deal revenue recognition practices", "Question sustainability of 25%+ revenue growth targets and NFL rights economics" ], "scqaResolution": "Sell GENI ahead of a 55m-share overhang: 35m insider shares unlock after the June 9 capital raise, 11.2m NFL warrants vest Aug 7, and 9.2m public warrants become exercisable Aug 18.", "thesisOneLiner": "Genius Sports is a low-moat data middleman overpaying for league rights and inflating growth via barter revenue; 55m shares of overhang unlock imminently — 60-80% downside to $3.25-$6.50.", "precedentsCited": [ "Active Network short (Prescience/Spruce Point, Oct 2012)", "iRobot short (May 2015 / June 2017)", "Echo Global Logistics short (Sept 2016)", "Bazaarvoice short (May 2012)", "Verint Systems short (May 2019)", "Forescout short (May 2020)" ], "scqaComplication": "Genius has no real moat — competitors grew 0-14% while Genius posted 30%, reflecting a one-time Premier League boost; management overpaid 6x Sportradar's prior NFL deal and records 11% of revenue as potentially manipulable VIK barter swaps.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 7, 13, 14, 18, 55 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Sportradar", "Stats Perform", "IMG Arena", "DraftKings", "Golden Nugget Online Gaming", "Rush Street Interactive", "PointsBet", "Entain", "Kambi", "Evolution Gaming" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison", "dcf" ], "visualCraftInterest": 3 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a satirical visual metaphor (clown, 'SELL' signs, 'Mr. Irrelevant' reference) to frame the target company negatively.", "function": "front_matter", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/hd6SYMdVgg-X06NE7b9GhzH-5oIzpk1Qk63c3LSsIEo/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy8wOGQ2YWVmYmNjYjUvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 25, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 241, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a satirical visual metaphor (clown, 'SELL' signs, 'Mr. Irrelevant' reference) to frame the target company negatively.", "elementsJson": [ "photo", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:37.947+00", "seconds": 6.522, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.23, "x": 0.69, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "\"MR. 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Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 7, "type": "setup", "title": "This is a classic activist short-seller deck slide, combining a strong headline with a dense narrative summary and supporting bullet points.", "function": "summarize", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 96, "componentCount": 11, "textChars": 4868, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "This is a classic activist short-seller deck slide, combining a strong headline with a dense narrative summary and supporting bullet points.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "subtitle_text", "paragraph", "bullet_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "seconds": 5.725, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559/7", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559#slide-7", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe Genius Sports, an overhyped revenue growth story assumed to benefit from the broader sports betting market, is facing competitive pressure and is unlikely to achieve its stated 25%+ growth targets", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-9dc64ab1f788", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Despite lower revenue growth by competitors in 2020, Genius reported revenue growth of 30% for 2020\nWe believe this growth is likely a result of a one-time benefit driven by the new Premier League partnership", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "80657d92-cfec-42e1-88de-edf685655aee", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Our research shows a significant disconnect between management's guidance and reality\n$60bn Total Addressable Market includes pre-match betting (we estimate ~30%) where it is hard to charge revenue share as there is no value in exclusive data\nWe believe revenue shares are typically in the range of 1.5%-2%, for tier 1 exclusive deals\nGrowing competitive pressures from sports leagues and sportsbooks will likely pressure margins", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "85ad80fc-b0ae-4580-9b57-05442a2feea9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Genius purchased the NFL rights for ~$120 million per year including equity\nBased on our research, Genius likely overpaid for the rights as competitor Sportradar did not find the price economical", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c6a1ac29-5916-4047-affe-62364635f55d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We believe Genius Sports, an overhyped revenue growth story assumed to benefit from the broader sports betting market, is facing competitive pressure and is unlikely to achieve its stated 25%+ growth targets", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e828e811-9438-40ce-9860-3afdfb0098a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Disintermediation Risk: a customer told us they plan to directly approach sports leagues to \"break the model\" and eliminate the middleman\n\"This is definitely a possibility. Another guy and I within the company have already been tasked to go direct, to approach the actual source of the data and see if we can do direct deals.\" \"You can get more from us and our competitors and we can pay less because there is no middleman to be paid...\" \"Its all doable, its not even near impossible.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee42e7af-1aa8-41a6-a1dc-e673bd4b6c60", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Genius' competitive advantage and main driver of 2020 revenue growth is its exclusive Premier League rights which are expensive at a cost of ~$14m/yr\nGenius is facing an anti-competitive lawsuit from Sportradar relating to The Premier League contract, a risk to Genius' major source of revenue", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fb55328a-7ab8-4f59-b32e-a4bd6cab4049", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "downside: 60% - 80%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-a6dd727f58e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.42, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Genius Sports (\"GENI\" or \"the Company\"), a provider of live sports data from its partnerships with sports leagues to sportsbook customers, has recently gone public through an acquisition by DMY Technology Group (DMYD), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). While the market's current view of Genius reflects the growth of the sports betting industry, in reality, our view is that Genius is just another intermediary that provides similar data to its competitors and will likely fail to capitalize on the wider industry growth. Spruce Point has conducted an in-depth analysis of Genius including speaking with various industry experts and analyzing partner contracts. A sports data providers' competitive advantage is its key exclusive rights (NFL & Premier League for Genius), which Genius is paying considerable fees for. In the case of the NFL rights, a Sportradar executive explains that Sportradar was unable to justify the price Genius is paying the NFL. We find exclusive rights are only valuable for live/in-game betting and less so for the majority of wagers placed on the final result of matches. Genius' bull thesis revolves around a stated 5% revenue share rate of gross gaming revenue (GGR). Our research shows this figure is more than double the current market rate and typically only applies for exclusive data rights. We have significant concerns regarding the Company's \"noncash\" revenues, a result of contra/barter deals with sports league partners where services are provided \"at no cost\" in return for rights to league data, that may result in inflated revenue and may lead to future financial reporting issues. In addition, we believe investors may be misguided by potential \"fake news\" around growth opportunities, including betting revenue from NCAA events where Genius does not own the betting rights. We believe Genius' shares have significant long-term downside to our price target range of $3.25 - $6.50 per share, a discount below the $10 acquisition price where its previous private equity sponsor sold shares in its IPO. In the near term, we believe there could be up to 55m shares of GENI that could be sold. We estimate 35m insider shares become unlocked next week after a 60-day period following the June 9th equity offering, 11.2m NFL warrants are exercisable through next week, and 9.2m public warrants can be exercised on August 18th.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee306bdf-ab49-4cef-90bd-8bfdac679837", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“This is definitely a possibility. Another guy and I within the company have been tasked to go direct, to approach the actual source of the data and see if we can do direct deals.” “You can get more from us and our competitors and we can pay less because there is no middleman to be paid...” “Its all doable, its not even near impossible.” — Anonymous customer", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-a20c838db02c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "55 Million Reasons To Sell In The Near-Term; 60% - 80% Downside To $3.25-$6.50 Per Share", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:38.37+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a41b2e92-f39c-4c69-9b10-e88a33f1b1e8", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 7, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem Identification", "beatId": "9847db00-d638-4aae-95dd-90fa8d6c9fcd", "matchId": "28c6d42e-3ed9-431f-b0bb-993f55963995", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck starts by identifying the problem with Genius Sports, highlighting its poor risk/reward investment thesis.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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"bullet_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:42.642+00", "seconds": 9.635, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559/8", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559#slide-8", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.93, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Red Flag: industry experts have told us 11% of revenues from leagues seems high; Sportradar's revenue from leagues is at most 5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", 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"bullet_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:35.992+00", "seconds": 2.835, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559/9", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559#slide-9", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point's view on Genius' August 5th, 2021 press release announcing a \"transformational\" NFL deal:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": 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one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:05+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c1-86d9fcff0ab4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Investors should have EXPECTED this news was coming given the existing relationship between Genius and DraftKings.\nWhy else would Genius purchase the NFL rights if its customers were not interested?\nThere is no evidence previous partnerships with DraftKings have helped Genius generate positive cash flow or earnings and the economics of this deal were not provided.\nSpruce Point believes this news came at an opportune time for the Company, days ahead of the beginning of its lock-up.\nDraftKings' stock has hardly moved on the news, 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We attribute this to Genius' inferior distributor business model in which Genius is at the mercy of its data suppliers and end market sportsbooks.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-2e6cdb59c509", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Working Capital: (14.6%)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-323d98aa462c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.37, "x": 0.018, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: Based on companies' fiscal year ends\n(1) Sum of Predecessor and Successor financials for Genius Sports\nSource: Company financials, Spruce Point analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 26, "type": "setup", "title": "Uses expert testimonials to debunk the bull case thesis regarding revenue share percentages.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 87, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 2814, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Uses expert testimonials to debunk the bull case thesis regarding revenue share percentages.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "seconds": 4.179, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559/26", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559#slide-26", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-1b3c88355559.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Revenue share rates fluctuate by league. For larger leagues representing a higher percentage of total dollars waged, the revenue share is less than 2%. Leagues with 5% revenue shares represent a much smaller share of total dollars waged.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a767ee4c-b012-4ce6-bbf6-d6ab23fe6e48", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "For larger leagues representing a higher percentage of total dollars waged, the revenue share is less than 2%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-c9076f877e6d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue share rate: 2%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-d14a809bd95e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The bull case is dependent on capturing a significant revenue share rate of the growing global betting market. We have found that not all sportsbook customers are on a revenue share plan, and those that do, are on a smaller percentage than portrayed for leagues with significant dollars waged (1-2% vs. 5%). Based on our conversations, sportsbooks will only agree to any revenue share with exclusive data, therefore limiting the potential upside. It is highly unlikely sportsbooks, who control the valuable relationships with bettors, will be willing to concede meaningful economics. The larger share of economics Genius and data providers demand, the more incentive for sportsbooks to go directly to sports leagues.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "07f6e55e-d811-4630-8d1d-0bd5301fbaff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "With regards to what bookmakers spend with data providers, here is what a sportsbook will pay as a revenue share. The only way to reach 5% of GGR is for Genius to fully trade for the sportsbook (this is called outsourced trading services and is a tiny part of GSG's business). My sportsbook and every other one would never outsource their trading to Genius and not pay 5% of GGR.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "17d911c4-8b07-4d45-b167-6b70b05d2239", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Sportsbooks don't pay a revenue share unless it's exclusive and valuable content. The English Premier League (EPL) is, but Genius' sportsbooks don't pay a revenue share for 110,000 bundled matches with said EPL. They pay revenue share in exclusive one-offs (e.g. NCAA data). There are minimum fees per month as Genius alludes to but this is not always revenue share.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0ed9918-217e-450c-87b7-acbcaef66cb1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "A data provider can charge 6% for a low tier exclusive esports game but only 1.5% for Premier League. The better the league, the higher the share but there is a cap of 2% for big sports. For small sports where a data provider has complete exclusivity, not televised and no one else can ever get in the stadium, you can get 6%. The total dollars of GGR on these are so low. Genius has increased their fixtures for such low tier esports. Many sports have no GGR attached anyway as there are competitor providers who charge a flat fee per month.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ec272dd7-b870-41be-8039-24bdf2e86f59", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "With regards to what bookmakers spend with data providers, here is what a sportsbook will pay as a revenue share. The only way to reach 5% of GGR is for Genius to fully trade for the sportsbook (this is called outsourced trading services and is a tiny part of GSG's business). My sportsbook and every other one would never outsource their trading to Genius and not pay 5% of GGR. — Betting Industry Expert", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c2-ce91cd6eabcc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Optimistic Estimates For Revenue Share", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "35a25950-9e46-41ba-aeb6-480a245ab3dc", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Anchoring Bias", "slug": "anchoring-bias", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-9254-73de-8f1b-c7250f8f4c9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "First piece of information becomes reference point for all subsequent judgments", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Architect", "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "0b7931b5-f36d-4563-8d7b-b6106851cbdd", "evidence": "The bull case is dependent on capturing a significant revenue share rate of the growing global betting market.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:30.848571+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 26, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? 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We believe there is a significant risk that the current data distribution model will be disrupted as the industry grows and sportsbooks approach the leagues directly. 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Currently if I look at Genius in terms of what is their big differentiation to us is they are the exclusive provider of Championship soccer in the UK.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:41.133+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ec5f76e9-3c1c-4293-8ee0-9f5ffbb51132", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "This is definitely a possibility. Another guy and I within the company have already been tasked to go direct, to approach the actual source of the data and see if we can do direct deals. We are approaching them to see if we can try to break the model. You can get more from us and our competitors and we can pay less because there is no middleman to be paid. Its kind of a win-win situation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:41.133+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f80ba6bf-aeaa-44b4-a460-81145cb033b7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"You have Genius, Sportradar, Stats Perform, IMG and they all kind of play in a similar space in terms of data and streaming. 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Once the data is available to the masses, its exclusivity loses its value to the distributor. Based on the June 2021 BettingUSA.com article, the combination of the start-stop nature of NFL games and majority of betting placed on the final outcome, the value of live data may turn out to be less valuable than originally expected. Industry expert Matt Para raises concerns about Genius' deal with the NFL. He believes the deal is overvalued and can run into challenges including a lack of profitability for Genius. 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This current deal between Genius Sports and the NFL sets a bad precedent and (has) created incredibly challenging economics from which operators have to try and navigate. It is only the operators that are not concerned with profitability that can really stomach it.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.244+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ca11be25-2127-41ea-b675-50dbd6da0ef6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "The start-stop nature of NFL games means that the latency issues that arise from data providers offering a feed from television coverage don't come into play as they might do in other sports. And for all the promise within the new deal of the new generation of data - possibly coming from player tracking data - that isn't here yet. Moreover, the notion next-generation stats will generate a whole new type of in-play betting is even more unproven. The fact remains that most betting on a match, even in-play, is on the final result. Thus, the case in favor of new types of in-play bets is, as yet, only the stuff of start-up pitch decks.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:40.244+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e06e4a8f-6e75-49a3-a4d9-43f8488cd0ee", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The start-stop nature of NFL games means that the latency issues that arise from data providers offering a feed from television coverage don't come into play as they might do in other sports... The fact remains that most betting on a match, even in-play, is on the final result. Thus, the case in favor of new types of in-play bets is, as yet, only the stuff of start-up pitch decks.\" — BettingUSA.com (June 14, 2021); \"I do believe the data is being over-valued, and the NFL is not familiar with the challenges of running a profitable sports betting business.\" — Matt Para, sports betting consultant (BettingUSA.com article); \"What I can say to you, is that on a cash basis we anticipate the NFL to be breakeven in 2021, and cash generating thereafter. 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Based on financials disclosed by rating agencies, Sportradar had a €38 million impairment. We agree with Sportico’s interpterion of the ratings notes, attributing Sportradar’s low EBITDA margins to its high licensing fees and “middleman” business model.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:44.746+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aa4bb700-7d03-4527-8b41-3bd4c770195d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Sportradar is dependent on acquiring sports rights, which represents a high fixed cost of the business. Although the upfront commitment does not guarantee cash flow, and the investment can underperform leading to impairment (for example the recent €38 million impairment of sports rights licenses for the NBA and NFL due to slower than expected development of US sports betting)\" — Moody's (October 30, 2020). \"The two ratings opinions also provide a partial glimpse into Sportradar's financials. Among them, the company has experienced a $42 million \"impairment\" of its NBA contract, according to Fitch. 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The SportsBusiness Daily website reported that the league has taken an equity stake in Sportradar, which is based in Switzerland, and that the US arm of the company - Sportradar acquired SportsData in December 2013 and has since rebranded it Sportradar US - will be paying around US$5 million per year for the right to distribute and license NFL data over the next four years.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:42.218+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "916a961e-6eff-44cb-a51d-1451005d9373", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes Genius' payment to the NFL in the form of equity should not be interrupted as a long-term commitment by the NFL. 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From our conversations with industry experts, an opinion surfaced that Genius’ exclusive rights for the Premier League is its only competitive advantage. These rights were the driving factor to Genius’ 2020 revenue growth and Genius will likely need to continue buying costly, desirable rights to demand higher revenue from sportsbook customers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:41.876+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9053bd24-20c8-4daf-bc75-a69c7bfbda14", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Cost of revenue was $60.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019, compared to $77.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. The $16.7 million increase in cost of revenue is primarily driven by increased data rights costs and increased amortization of capitalized software development costs. Data rights costs were $14.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 and $25.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. This increase is driven primarily by the U.K. soccer data rights contract Genius entered into in 2019. Amortization of capitalized software development costs was $2.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 and $7.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. This increase is driven primarily by Genius’ continued investment in new product offerings which has resulted in increased capitalization of internally developed software costs since the Apax Investment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:41.876+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f35ca0c8-29d5-4dda-b976-fea0eac15f99", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Genius were selected after a competitive bidding process which saw the company oust Perform Group, which last renewed its deal with Football DataCo ahead of the 2016/17 season. — Sports Pro Media (May 2019)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7c3-cd04e0548e63", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Sports Pro Media (May 2019)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:41.876+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "550e95d7-f2c2-4d8f-bfa3-e18b3db81ccc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.66 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Genius Sports Form F-4", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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And Genius or Sportradar are the intermediary. 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Even the NBA deal is VIK, as is the English Premier League whereby Genius pays an estimated GPB 20m a year, on which they are supposedly making a loss.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:43.833+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ba6c89f1-ac25-498f-b399-b9b267e2dacb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.44, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "From the Genius Sports part, that seems high to me because a lot of the deals, they are either paying money or its contra. $16 million seems quite high.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:43.833+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fa33ecf6-6659-4071-b462-1954cd7bca31", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"No, the leagues are never paying Genius, at least for the Genius Sports module when they were providing digitization, social media, integration, websites, mobile apps.\" — Former Genius Sports Manager; \"From the Genius Sports part, that seems high to me because a lot of the deals, they are either paying money or its contra. $16 million seems quite high.\" — Former Genius Sports Manager; \"It is unlikely if any of these sports pay Genius real cash, or at least significant amounts. 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Their first SPAC merged with Rush Street Interactive (RSI), and four months later, the executives have begun to aggressively sell RSI shares. In May 2021, De Masi and You continued to sell shares in the mid-$12 range, a mere 25% premium to the transaction value. Less than a year earlier, management was pitching investors on the story of a bright future with a long runway. 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We are very excited about the long-term opportunity to drive shareholder value... 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