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Bull-vs-Bear spread, mock-assessment of Oatly's 'Be Honest / Be Fearless' credo, and layered forensic appendix (124 pages). Multi-pronged thesis combining fraud_exposure (accounting overstatement, auditor churn), governance_board (undisclosed executive ties to prior scandals), and multiple_rerating (downward — peer-multiple compression argument). Author attribution: Ben Axler is the named founder on p.3; no individual signatory on the cover so attribution is firm-level + founder. Stake percent not disclosed; disclaimer states a short position 'in all stocks (and are long/short combinations of puts and calls)'. Closing ask captured from p.6 executive summary since the final slide (p.124) is a rhetorical flourish rather than a call-to-action. Rich precedent library — their own prior shorts (BDBD, WMK, CHD) are used as track-record marketing up-front.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$6.40 - $14.90 per share, implying 30%-70% downside from $23.40", "metric": "Price target range" }, { "detail": "~640bps: Oatly reports 27.2%/30.1%, Spruce Point estimates 23.7% adjusted for shipping in COGS", "metric": "Gross margin overstatement" }, { "detail": "Three auditors in six years — undisclosed in the prospectus", "metric": "Auditor turnover" }, { "detail": "~$0.72-$0.95 implied vs $0.64 historical — 11%-48% higher; Barclays models $1.13, 77% above historical", "metric": "New-capacity capex per liter" }, { "detail": "Running >100% over $100m budget per former employees", "metric": "Utah plant capex overrun" }, { "detail": "$12bn EV = 71% of 2020 plant-based dairy market ($17bn) and 57% of 2025E market ($21bn)", "metric": "Valuation vs market" }, { "detail": "17x 2021E sales and 75x 2021E adjusted gross margin — peers average 3.6x sales / 12.5x gross profit", "metric": "Trading multiple" }, { "detail": "Oatly 1.8% of sales vs Beyond Meat 9.7%; Danone spends >EUR300m annually", "metric": "R&D intensity" }, { "detail": "Oatly says U.S. revenue ~$12m in 2018; former manager estimates $4-$8m", "metric": "Revenue discrepancy 2018" }, { "detail": "Canada supplies 10% of oat needs; 2019 oat/rapeseed oil purchases up 87%/7%; futures up 33%/38% YTD unhedged", "metric": "Sweden oat supply exposure" }, { "detail": "Losing share to Chobani and Califia Farms per channel checks; products being discounted", "metric": "Oatly market share in oat milk" }, { "detail": "Next-gen quinoa milk 'Quiny' owned outside Oatly by founder Bjorn Oste", "metric": "R&D stripped into Aventure AB" } ], "closingAsk": "Spruce Point calls on Oatly's Board to retain an independent forensic accountant to investigate the revenue, gross-margin, inventory and capex issues raised and to issue a non-reliance opinion on the financial statements.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:29:20+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 143.47972, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Spruce Point's valuation work pegs fair value at $6.40-$14.90 per share — 30% to 70% intermediate downside from $23.40 — with long-term insolvency risk as competitors fill supply gaps and the oat-milk fad matures.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Signs of 640bps gross-margin overstatement, three auditors in six years, and capex running 77% above historical cost", "CFO and Audit Chair hide prior roles at Stratus Technologies and Green Mountain Coffee accounting scandals", "Valuation of $12bn implies 57% of 2025 non-dairy milk market while U.S. share is already being lost to Chobani and Califia" ], "scqaSituation": "Oatly IPO'd in June 2021 as the self-styled leader of a plant-based dairy revolution, marketing oat milk with an ESG halo and a near-$12bn enterprise value across Sweden, the U.S. and China.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point argues that Oatly, which IPO'd in June 2021 at roughly $12bn on an ESG-led oat-milk growth story, is sitting on collapsing fundamentals hidden by weak financial controls. Former employee interviews, FOIA requests and forensic work point to ~640bps gross-margin overstatement, questionable capex accounting at NJ and Utah plants, inventory growing faster than sales, and three auditors in six years. CFO Christian Hanke and Audit Chair Frances Rathke obscure prior ties to accounting restatements at Stratus Technologies and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Meanwhile U.S. channel checks show market-share loss to Chobani and Califia, the China rollout is behind schedule, and founder Bjorn Oste has stripped the next-generation quinoa-milk R&D into a separate vehicle (Aventure/Quiny). With Oatly trading at 17x 2021E sales and 75x adjusted gross margin, Spruce Point sees 30-70% downside to $6.40-$14.90 and long-term insolvency risk.", "primaryDemands": [ "Strong Sell rating on Oatly with 30%-70% intermediate downside", "Board should hire an independent forensic accountant to investigate Spruce Point's claims", "Non-reliance opinion on financial statements given three auditors in six years and accounting control weaknesses", "Investors should discount Oatly's ESG narrative and recognize undisclosed management ties to prior accounting scandals" ], "scqaResolution": "Investors should treat Oatly as a Strong Sell, and the Board should commission an independent forensic accountant to investigate Spruce Point's claims and issue a non-reliance opinion on the financials.", "thesisOneLiner": "Oatly is an over-hyped oat-milk fad with accounting overstatements, hidden management scandals and a $12bn valuation pricing in 57% market share — 30-70% downside.", "precedentsCited": [ "Boulder Brands (BDBD) — Spruce Point/Prescience Point 2013 short; CEO resigned, sold for $11/share (52% below Chappell's $23 target)", "Weis Markets (WMK) — Spruce Point Sept 2018 short; price cuts followed", "Church & Dwight (CHD) — Spruce Point Sept 2019 short; disappointing Q3 results", "WhiteWave Foods / Danone 2016 acquisition at 2.7x sales as a valuation benchmark", "Beyond Meat (BYND) as a cautionary multiple-compression analogue", "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters SEC accounting investigation (Frances Rathke era)", "Stratus Technologies multi-year restatement (Christian Hanke era)" ], "scqaComplication": "Former-employee interviews, FOIAs and forensic analysis reveal revenue, gross-margin and capex overstatements (~640bps GM gap), three auditors in six years, undisclosed CFO and Audit-Chair ties to Stratus and Green Mountain scandals, and U.S. share loss to Chobani and Califia.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 6, 10, 11, 119, 123 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ 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efforts estimate of the potential fundamental valuation of a specific security, and is not expressed as, or implied as, assessments of the quality of a security, a summary of past performance, or an actionable investment strategy for an investor. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC is registered with the SEC as an investment advisor. However, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of personalized investment advice from Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC is not registered as a broker/dealer or accounting firm.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:52.749+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "13c3d1b1-3fcc-40fd-af9a-46dac784e3a6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions. You should assume that as of the publication date of any presentation, report or letter, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC (\"SPCM\") (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our subscribers and clients has a short position in all stocks (and are long/short combinations of puts and calls on the stock) covered herein, including without limitation Oatly Group AB (\"OTLY\") and therefore stand to realize significant gains in the event that the price declines. Following publication of any presentation, report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and Spruce Point Capital Management does not undertake to update this report or any information contained herein. Spruce Point Capital Management, subscribers and/or consultants shall have no obligation to inform any investor or viewer of this report about their historical, current, and future trading activities.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:52.749+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "719fa73b-144b-43bb-88d5-375fcf8795ac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "To the best of our ability and belief, as of the date hereof, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable and does not omit to state material facts necessary to make the statements herein not misleading, and all information has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer, or to any other person or entity that was breached by the transmission of information to Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. However, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC recognizes that there may be non-public information in the possession of OTLY or other insiders of OTLY that has not been publicly disclosed by OTLY. Therefore, such information contained herein is presented \"as is,\" without warranty of any kind - whether express or implied. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC makes no other representations, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:52.749+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cfc78e9d-1a34-4074-ab04-99eca5775961", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions, which we have based upon interpretation of certain facts and observations, all of which are based upon publicly available information, and all of which are set out in this research presentation. Any investment involves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. There can be no assurance that any statement, information, projection, estimate, or assumption made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be realized or accurate. Any forecasts, estimates, and examples are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as limitations of the minimum or maximum possible loss, gain, or outcome. Any information contained in this report may include forward looking statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections. You should assume these types of statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections may turn out to be incorrect for reasons beyond Spruce Point Capital Management LLC's control. This is not investment or accounting advice nor should it be construed as such. Use of Spruce Point Capital Management LLC's research is at your own risk. You should do your own research and due diligence, with assistance from professional financial, legal and tax experts, before making any investment decision with respect to securities covered herein. 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Yet, in Oatly's quest for rapid business growth and its race to IPO, we believe it has recklessly managed these costs, and also sought to obscure the impact of shipping costs in its financial statements.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:47.501+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7536edb6-23e4-444c-8c4b-20a8060cfc9e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: 2019 Oatly Sustainability Report; 2020 Oatly Sustainability Report; Internal Report for Oatly AB, 2013", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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However, in its quest to grow and rush an IPO so investors can cash out, we believe there is clear evidence of Oatly disregarding these enormous climate factors. For instance, in Oatly's U.S. expansion, its production facilities are nowhere close to Western Canada, where its U.S. President is on record saying 90% of its oats come from.(1) In addition, Oatly is pushing its Asia and China expansion story, while oats are being sourced from Sweden, or up to 6,000 miles away!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:28:04.54+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99f53ce0-db5a-45f6-81b5-791cbd30497b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "In its quest to grow and rush an IPO so investors can cash out, we believe there is clear evidence of Oatly disregarding these enormous climate factors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a879-228a97a19779", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Oatly's U.S. President said that 90% of its oats come from Western Canada.(1) Oatly's first production facility is located in New Jersey, or approximately 3,000 miles away from its oat supply: Fmr. Oatly North American Manager: \"I don't know why they would pay ($10m for a used plumbing facility in NJ), but my jaw dropped when I heard it\" Fmr. Oatly Accounting Professional: \"In the system, there were issues with tracking items. We had so many warehouses, there was no control or coordination\" Oatly's second production facility is located in Utah Fmr. Oatly North American Manager: \"I think Utah was the wrong place, wrong location. They were looking more at the tax credits (a short-term one shot deal). I was looking more in the Pacific Northwest, to fit more with the green sustainability, North/South trucking routes and production. Utah is an improvement in the West, but not optimal as far as I'm concerned.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:28:04.54+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "57c0ee8b-af9b-4f34-9981-dc7fe0669e11", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Oatly's Asia Expansion Also Shows Extreme Distance From Oat Sourcing \"This strategic partnership is a testament to Yeo's unwavering commitment to manufacturing standards and high standing in the food and beverage industry in Asia,\" Yeo's Group chief executive officer Samuel Koh told The Business Times. The Singapore facility will produce 60 million litres of oat milk a year at launch, and has the option to scale up further with additional investment. The oats will be sourced from Sweden. Johnny Teo, executive director for food, healthcare and biomedical at Enterprise Singapore, said: \"This collaboration between Yeo's and Oatly is an example of a strategic cross-border partnership that capitalises on complementary capabilities among different players in the food ecosystem, which we hope to see more in Singapore\".", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:28:04.54+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8e0db1c0-e083-45a1-afcf-d2a7f4e73223", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I don't know why they would pay ($10m for a used plumbing facility in NJ), but my jaw dropped when I heard it — Fmr. 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During his time at Stratus, the Company disclosed a multi-year financial restatement related to revenue recognition and lease accounting.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.114+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "023166f1-0c17-4fb6-9eea-76c73a11a869", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Oatly's CFO Christian Hanke provides an incomplete biography that obscures his role as Manager of Financial Reporting at Stratus Technologies (1999 - 2005).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87a-022a1519167c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We have identified and are currently reviewing certain customer transactions for which revenue was recognized and reported in the consolidated financial statements of Stratus Technologies International, S.à r.l. for fiscal 2004 and the first quarter of fiscal 2005. The accounting issues identified in these transactions relate to the timing of the recording of revenue, and not whether the sales can be recorded as revenue. For these transactions, the products for which we have recognized revenue have been delivered, are currently in use by our customers in their operations and have either been paid for or are expected to be paid for in the ordinary course. We are reassessing the appropriate periods in which the revenue for these transactions should be recognized. While we do not expect this review to result in changes to historical cash flow, it is likely that some or all of the revenue recorded for these transactions in previous financial periods could be deferred to future periods, thereby affecting the consolidated financial statements of Stratus Technologies International, S.à r.l. for fiscal 2004 and the first quarter of 2005 and resulting in a restatement for those periods. We are working with our internal auditors, Ernst & Young, and our independent auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers, on this detailed review of prior period revenue transactions, their potential impact on revenue, cost of goods sold and inventory and our internal controls generally. At this time, we do not have an anticipated date for the completion of our review or the release of any appropriate restated financial results. Accordingly, pending completion of this review, the consolidated financial statements of Stratus Technologies International, S.à r.l. for fiscal 2004 and the first quarter of 2005 should not be relied upon as an accurate reflection of our financial results for these periods.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.114+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8e3019a5-9f89-4bd0-8f1c-0f525fee57c3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Christian Hanke has served as our Chief Financial Officer since March 2020. Prior to joining the Company, Mr. Hanke served as the Interim Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Corporate Controller from March 2019 to March 2020 and Vice President, Corporate Controller of Autoliv from November 2016 to March 2019. Mr. Hanke served as the Vice President, Financial Controller of Nasdaq Stockholm overseeing the EMEA and Asia Finance function from April 2013 to November 2016. Mr. Hanke holds a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration, with a concentration in Accounting, from Uppsala University. 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They spent too much. I think they are close to $100m. The original budget is $50m.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.484+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cfb8c51d-b81e-4489-bfa3-0991ef7a8b52", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The way the facility was built, it was leased, but the plant has been Oatly. 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I don't know why they would pay that much, but my jaw dropped when I heard it.\" — Former Oatly U.S. Manager", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a879-e93c93b2fa1d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: City of Millville, NJ", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We believe the CEO’s response to a question of why it chose Millville is whimsical and displays a lack of in depth planning.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "50eee37a-811b-48b7-a84e-a76ae1ef29fb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe the CEO's response to a question of why it chose Millville is whimsical and displays a lack of in depth planning.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a879-5c6b6bd0b1f7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Photos of the Millville facility", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ed018e55-c628-4fef-8721-f17b703f23c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.89, "x": 0.095, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Oatly U.S. President Messersmith: \"Messersmith said the Millville project materialized because of its proximity to supply partners. 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The sky is blue, the people are nice. Can't be better, right?\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5e1674ae-4f4d-416f-8339-804e0232c5cf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.13, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "metric", "text": "$10 Million Paid For An Old Pluming Facility Built In 1972", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Big number", "slug": "big-number", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc70-70c8-b965-0584548a9204", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "big-number", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:49.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "52cd1967-805b-402d-afb2-59b7a044b696", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"It was obvious to open on the East coast and not anywhere else. The sky is blue, the people are nice. Can't be better, right?\" — Oatly CEO Peterson, Vice Interview, March 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a879-62c8e6a60857", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: “Swedish Firm Opening Oat Processing Plant In Millville”, Daily Journal, Oct 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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In order to expand production and ease congestion, Oatly has wanted to purchase an adjacent parcel of land (and even the entire lot) from the City's Board of Education (BOE) ever since 2018. 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Innovation Foods was notified about this in early 2019 prior to selling the property to Oatly later that year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:50.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "897a3776-d6d3-44df-a306-dcc3357eeb8f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.18, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "From: Paul Wolcott Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2019 2:40 PM To: Carmine Catalana; Frank Catalana; davecatalana@gmail.com; Nick Catalana Cc: 'Joe Santini'; Arthur Ogren; Paul Wolcott Subject: Re: Visit from County Health Inspectors (Property Trash Violation) I just received a visit from (2) County Heath Inspectors, Nicole Giacalone and Emma Nolan. Card are attached. The reason for the visit is our Property on the Gorton Road side is in trash and dumped tire violation. Apparently, the health department was back there today investigating the area and took pictures of 47 tires that were dump a large piles of trash, old sinks, floor tile and other debris. They our giving us 30 days to have it cleaned up. The clean-up procedure must be documented on the trash removal, meaning if we have Ray Harvey do the clean up the county must have a copy of the invoice also if we Giordano we need to have their paperwork on where they take and depose of the tires and debris Let me know your thoughts and I will get started on it. Paul D. 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In its 2019 Sustainability Report, it hinted that its growth was placing strains on its short-term ability to improve its environmental footprint, but pledged to “make things right again” with various improvements. However, Spruce Point believes that it has back-tracked on this pledge. We find that it has unremedied EPA violations for over a year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:52.558+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a7028e68-fd7b-469a-aa68-406de31eb56f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.29, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Excerpt from 2019 Sustainability Report", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:52.558+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bf9c528d-53b4-4271-82b1-c57b985cad0b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "It seems our products are so popular that we struggle to meet the demand. If people love Oatly and want more, we want to be better at getting it to them. And we’re off to a decent start: In 2019 we produced around 165 million liters of product, a whopping 93% increase compared to 2018. We’ve built two new production sites—one in Vlissingen in the Netherlands, and one in Millville, New Jersey in the US—both of which opened in 2019. Because the focus was on finalizing and starting up these sites, the increased production capacity initially had a negative impact on our overall environmental footprint. But we always think long-term, and the plan is to catch up and make things right again with various improvements at these locations. 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48% increase in capex costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a879-c41b546ea2f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "(A/B) = Cost per liter of capacity: $0.64", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Legend", "slug": "legend", "status": "active", "canonId": "31361933-3d22-4c70-bbad-0801e9fffc0c", "version": 1, "description": "Color/symbol decoder placed adjacent to a chart or diagram." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:51.383+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aa31ecb0-58f1-4ec9-9e71-f3f5e6865904", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Cost Per Liter: $0.95", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a879-c9ea10766557", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.23, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Prospectus figures for 2019 and 2020. 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However, not all analysts appear bought into the Company's statements for $750 - $1,000m in capital spending to reach 1,400m liters. Jefferies thinks Oatly will get to 1,500m liters, but at a total cost of $1.2bn. So the incremental 100m liters will cost an astounding $200m and total capacity additions from 350m to 1,500m are $1.04 per liter, or 63% higher than our estimated historical cost! JP Morgan on the other hand, thinks the capacity expansion to 1,400m liters will be slightly above $1.0bn, but that the Company will never actually use it, claiming 80% capacity utilization by 2023. If demand is so robust, why not 100% utilization?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.875+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ead71f7c-e671-4f99-8dc0-9b718876f251", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "So the incremental 100m liters will cost an astounding $200m and total capacity additions from 350m to 1,500m are $1.04 per liter, or 63% higher than our estimated historical cost!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87a-930fde6acac0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.32, "x": 0.48, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "JP Morgan Is At $1,011m Total Capex", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.875+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "182725e6-a7a9-4c38-a693-ba3b2f56e00b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.44, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Oatly's 2021E-23E Projected Capex Range: $750 - $1,000m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.875+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b2e6cc0-2026-4b1f-b79c-c0b765f7a323", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Capital Expenditures: $1.2bn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87a-9b45deb5586f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We model modest slack capacity in all periods but utilization rising over time to nearly 80% by the end of 2023E — JP Morgan", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87a-96811aeceb6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Oatly Investor Presentation, Jun 3, 2021", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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No where does it say that Oatly's Gross Profit may not be directly comparable to industry peers as a result of a financial decision it has made related to distribution costs.(1)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.379+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "52877b8d-792f-4620-a538-bb5416a662c7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: Setting aside the fact that Oatly discloses that 2018 figures are “estimates” derived from Swedish GAAP accounts that are converted and re-cast into IFRS, it also fails to disclose that its Gross Profit presentation is not comparable to how other companies in its industry present this metric. 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We believe this is a material omission that leaves investors with a potentially misleading view of its financial performance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.379+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6e1211b7-fbc2-418b-a22f-f2217c42d99b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Read the fine print! 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As a result, our gross profit and gross margin may not be comparable to other entities that present all shipping and handling costs as a component of cost of goods sold” Source: 10-K, p. 70", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.379+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3ed7e56d-e64f-497b-8073-7a1dadaaaf04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Beyond Meat explicitly tells investors: \"we include outbound shipping and handling costs within SG&A expenses. As a result, our gross profit and gross margin may not be comparable to other entities that present all shipping and handling costs as a component of cost of goods sold\" — Beyond Meat", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87b-cdba8a00edbd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Oatly F-1 SEC filing", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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After a review of many public companies in the dairy, frozen and packaged foods space, we find this to be industry standard.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.707+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "21cb2f93-7ad4-41e5-96f5-8d321cb72f0a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: Oatly’s Gross Margin is overstated because it fails to include outbound shipping and handling costs. After a review of many public companies in the dairy, frozen and packaged foods space, we find this to be industry standard.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87c-fd92e8f002d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Cost of goods sold consists primarily of the cost of oats and other raw materials... Our cost of goods sold also includes warehousing and transportation of inventory. 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Our cost of goods sold also includes warehousing and transportation of inventory. Selling, general and administrative expenses include primarily personnel related expenses, brand awareness and advertising costs, costs associated with consumer promotions, product samples and sales aids. 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640bps lower when including outbound transportation and logistics costs. Based on an interview with a former employee, this has been a material cost that made its U.S. gross margins negative.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e52b31d6-c1e3-4f33-9b42-aeaaf06feab1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: We estimate that Oatly's Gross Margin is 640bps lower when including outbound transportation and logistics costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87d-efa5cdb1f592", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "gross margin: 640 bps", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87d-f671feb44616", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Failure by our logistics providers to deliver our products on time, or at all, could result in lost sales. We currently rely upon third-party logistics providers for the distribution of our products. Our utilization of third parties for distribution and transportation handling is subject to risks, including increases in fuel prices, which would increase our shipping costs, and labor matters (including illness or absenteeism in workforce), inclement weather or other disruptions, including as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, any of which may impact the ability of these providers to provide distribution services that adequately meet our needs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fcfd456a-cb46-4157-90a8-3f76b1f3b2c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Yes in 2018 and 2019, I was there. I saw it. The freight was extremely high and not considered part of the cost of goods sold. Then the company moved with the supply chain optimizing the cost analysis and started making a decent gross profit in 2020. And clearly because the Company was paying extremely high freight, it was affecting the gross margin.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "51d2359a-d307-4caf-93e8-3c0ebb8be9f7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Yes in 2018 and 2019, I was there. I saw it. The freight was extremely high and not considered part of the cost of goods sold. Then the company moved with the supply chain optimizing the cost analysis and started making a decent gross profit in 2020. And clearly because the Company was paying extremely high freight, it was affecting the gross margin. — Former Oatly Accountant", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87d-f0ea00f9367c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.45, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: Jefferies initiation report says 15% of SG&A is shipping costs", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "54b4db5f-8e6d-4bae-8649-bef7de1a30a8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.42, "w": 0.44, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparable Public Foods Company Shipping Costs With Sales In The $400-$600m Range", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dddcb6b4-c5a7-4387-8d21-a0019f8cd5b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.42, "w": 0.52, "x": 0.46, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Oatly's Adjusted Gross Margin For Outbound Shipping Costs Estimated at 6% of Sales, In The Range of Peer Analysis (Right Side)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.143+00", 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"w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: At best, we estimate that Oatly's Gross Margin is on par, to slightly below, its peer plant and dairy specialty foods peers after adjusting for outbound shipping costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "af7233fc-c1f7-4a03-a57e-7aa189b525d8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Oatly's LTM Gross Margin vs. Plant and Dairy Based Peers", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e33f67f3-a87a-4a43-b06e-1e84012364f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "2020A Gross Margin Per Average Employee", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f88ee459-529b-42b1-81e7-2b4acf7a1092", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Gross Margin: 23.7%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": 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Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "11ebfc67-f804-47af-b6e6-e6eef6858ca7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: Beyond Meat also adjusted for outbound shipping costs", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6cadb4f6-9866-43bc-9986-43bb042b015d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Pro Forma Adjusted Gross Margins", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "60ad91e1-043b-4b4c-a67f-5bc9447e800f", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "76d21f8e-1e72-45d6-aa08-8912a7feb53b", "evidence": "Comparing Oatly's financial metrics against a peer group to expose a performance gap.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 62, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 63, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses screenshots of SEC filings and sustainability reports to contrast public disclosures with operational realities.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { 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Curiously, Oatly fails to say anything about the effect of these commodity prices on its business prospects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "48621ac5-8a86-4a76-b59e-0b637712602f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Dec 2021 Oat Futures Prices, CME", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0ee45e26-d713-423e-bd66-63484accf773", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Nov 2021 Rapeseed Futures Prices, Euronext", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "66cbbc8c-7d77-46a5-9d6f-6bd87eb06f1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "metric", "text": "+33% YTD", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Big number", "slug": "big-number", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc70-70c8-b965-0584548a9204", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "big-number", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e2a4715c-863f-4685-9f56-5296bf2b4a3b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.61, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "metric", "text": "+38% YTD", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Big number", "slug": "big-number", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc70-70c8-b965-0584548a9204", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "big-number", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e351e9ee-d776-4ccc-abb0-a76548c95f2a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "commodity price inflation: +38%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87d-1aab5f45fbf9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.21, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We may have general difficulties in obtaining raw materials, particularly oats, due to our high quality standards.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:56.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "59b0d846-ffe2-48a1-baa5-f02b263ed9cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“We may have general difficulties in obtaining raw materials, particularly oats, due to our high quality standards.” — F-1 SEC Registration document, pp. 25", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87d-14c219398a85", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg. 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We interpret semi-finished as work-in-process inventory. 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Why isn’t this reported externally?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.342+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d9a10536-2603-46fd-8d75-3c33e70e9aa1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Why does Oatly now claim to have semi-finished inventory when its external financial reporting does not include it?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87c-90b2f01b2a6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Source: Oatly job posting, Ogden, UT Plant Assistant Controller (since filled). Another Supply Chain Analyst Job also references semi-finished inventory", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.342+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2621fd80-df32-44c4-916e-feb0376f3316", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Oatly job posting screenshot", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.342+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ce4218e3-b00e-4598-a053-bbb12ac50f72", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.29, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Two Sets of Inventory Books: Internal vs. External Reporting?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.342+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0dfcb519-a60f-4895-90c6-f180aafd7030", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "ba81371c-d17e-4d57-838c-3c0760f88a5d", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames a discrepancy in reporting as a potential red flag for financial misrepresentation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.342+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 70, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 71, "type": "setup", "function": "transition", "rawType": "section_divider", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "section_divider", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Section divider", "slug": "section_divider", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-066a-7402-9554-6ae504999041", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "transition", "functionCanon": { "name": "Transition", "slug": "transition", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1365-7149-92aa-66df859e75fd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 7, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 144, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.546+00", "seconds": 2.082, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6/71", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6#slide-71", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.45, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Proprietary and Confidential - May Not Be Distributed or Copied Without Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC Consent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47920674-f08d-4bfe-a307-018eeddc6a73", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bae7986b-ae7d-4530-bfd1-b326c3fad5bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.35, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Signs of Capex Overstatement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:55.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5c3d50b2-3523-41aa-abfd-8197db529a61", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 72, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide highlights a growing variance between two accounting sources, which the author interprets as a red flag for aggressive capitalization.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 70, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1230, "nDataPoints": 30, "notes": "The slide highlights a growing variance between two accounting sources, which the author interprets as a red flag for aggressive capitalization.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "seconds": 3.553, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6/72", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6#slide-72", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: There is evidence to suggest aggressive capitalization of costs on the balance sheet. In 2017-2018 we see that purchases of fixed assets reported through the cash flow statement near perfectly match additions to the PP&E accounts in the footnotes. However, in 2019-2020 we see a growing divergence. Recall that we also observe that inventory and accounts receivable have grown faster than sales. One possible explanation is that sales may have been pulled forward and inventory overstated. In this potential scenario, recent historical losses would be understated. To plug the gap on the asset side of the balance sheet, Oatly could be inflating PP&E asset accounts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "45cec300-e1c5-4d48-b1ba-037915769bfa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Note: Conversion to IFRS greatly eliminated the disparity in 2019 from $3.7m to $0.5m but now it's grown to $10.1m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7d96bdc4-4b3a-44a6-a4a6-c400627844da", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "To plug the gap on the asset side of the balance sheet, Oatly could be inflating PP&E asset accounts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87c-67d221d4c8ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "PP&E variance: $10,129", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87c-6b170cec9bbb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Companieshouse UK filings for 2017-2019 SEK and F-1 Registration Statement for IFRS 2019-2020. SEK converted at average FX rates per Riksbank", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3568b96b-48be-4bd0-9968-e92ba6c7c0f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Table comparing PP&E additions from footnotes vs cash flow statement across 2017-2020, showing variance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c0847dba-f682-4adb-9ec1-5aabbaca4ce0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Divergence of Capex Through Cash Flow Statement And Balance Sheet", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b5a8213c-efd5-4f64-90e5-33f8edd9f784", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "54e6ac28-6578-42d8-b170-bdd54af3cfed", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies a 'Warning' regarding aggressive capitalization and potential inflation of assets.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 72, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 73, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses red arrows and question marks to visually highlight the missing cash flow link.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 60, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 846, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Uses red arrows and question marks to visually highlight the missing cash flow link.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "screenshot", "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:00.067+00", "seconds": 6.367, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6/73", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6#slide-73", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.085, "y": 0.185 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: Given our concerns that capex is overstated, one way to potentially “flush” it would be to dispose of it. Therefore, we investigated Oatly’s “Disposal of PP&E” in its SEC filings. To verify that these are actual asset sales, we cross-referenced it against the historical foreign filings which are called “Loss on Sale of Assets”. 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Spruce Point believes that technically, Oatly should have bifurcated the purchase between: 1) The land and structures, 2) An asset purchase for the equipment, and 3) Procurement of services.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4495cc88-6f48-41bd-bbde-06b0089ca1c6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Oatly paid $9.7m for its Millville, NJ (land, structures, equipment and services) when the previous owner paid just $637,500 for the identical facility (land and structures).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87c-a50b5a19315e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.0029 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Prior Owner Deed (Feb 2018): $637,500", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6cdbf88e-8f69-4410-b3f5-ee4e5fc6f01e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.0029 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Oatly (Sept 2019): $9,777,229.52", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:57+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "db9380e5-a75f-41f1-a4fd-590659656b17", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Cumberland County property records. 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"familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87e-162ad0dd4b06", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Warning: Before getting too excited about the Oatly story, consider what has happened in its home market of Sweden. Oatly's prospectus says that in Sweden it had 53% market share of sales in total alternative dairy products in 2020, according to Nielsen. However, it doesn't say much about what its market share was leading up to 2020. According to Euromonitor, another source it cites, Oatly's share started falling in 2016-2017, at the same time frame it shifted to international expansion into the U.S., China and other European markets. 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The success achieved in our home market, in terms of brand awareness and new product development, has become a clear \"north star\" for future international expansion.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f120d0d5-cb02-460c-8727-c7b377ed4e17", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"In our home market of Sweden, Oatly products had a 53% market share of sales in the total alternative dairy products non-milk based category as of 2020, according to Nielsen. The success achieved in our home market, in terms of brand awareness and new product development, has become a clear \"north star\" for future international expansion.\" — Oatly IPO prospectus", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87e-13d998cf6073", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Oatly Stopped Disclosing Market Share In Foreign Filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "798fd3b4-63e6-407c-90d0-9e17bef85d69", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Timely Pivot To International Markets And A \"Growth Story\" To Sell Stock", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9084789-7623-4932-83a3-5424c2d4b711", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "9286d891-1a96-48f3-a580-3b6fda1d65eb", "evidence": "Contrasting company narrative with historical data to imply misleading disclosure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:34:59.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 87, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 124, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 85, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "1c32506f-1c78-4442-a178-fa0f1eb2c40c", "matchId": "7230ea3f-aaaf-4b49-918a-f8d08a6534dc", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Conclusion and estimation of downside risk, supported by comprehensive evidence.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 90, "from": 85, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "a1fe7cdd-4962-437d-a94b-36d803b83b6b", "evidence": "Analysis of Oatly's market positioning and competitive threats.", "position": 1, "objective": "What is the cost of not addressing Oatly's competitive disadvantages?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:16.783371+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 88, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a 'Warning' callout to frame the contradiction.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 74, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1334, "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "Uses a 'Warning' callout to frame the contradiction.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:00.716+00", "seconds": 4.116, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6/88", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6#slide-88", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-17900a3ad1c6.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.188 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: Oatly's prospectus mentions the word \"brand\" two hundred and thirteen times (213), which we believe emphasizes the importance of Oatly's brand to its success in the hypercompetitive food industry.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, 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"version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:00.716+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b2740f9-0b73-472e-91a6-fed142b7e789", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I hate to use the word brand there... Consumers don't want brands, they don't care about brands. They care about something else, values, stories, and messages, right?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:00.716+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "397ed12d-506c-4171-9e49-4aa4e0380d47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "When you launch something new you have to have a very compelling product and a story behind it. It's so much about story telling.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:00.716+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f0c511c8-dc9f-460e-8df9-a7e6ad69e5b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"And I hate to use the word brand there... Consumers don't want brands, they don't care about brands. They care about something else, values, stories, and messages, right? Just so happens you can a message around a brand. But at the end of the day, who cares about brands\" — Bjorn Oste, The Pivotal Leader Interview, April 3, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87e-77948f69fdcf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: The Pivotal Leader Interview with Oatly Founder Bjorn Oste, April 3, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We also have other great oat milks such as Califia Oat, Chobani Oat, Pacific Oat, and Chobani Oat.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:03.413+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00e7a6b3-cad8-4bc2-b076-ee3416544c1f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Our stock of Oatly has been unreliable and unstable lately. We have been experiencing frequent shortages... I think that coffee shops prefer either Minor Figures or Elmhurst over Pacific.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:03.413+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "77ec8822-d859-45b1-a676-40dcac1b6025", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“We are currently experiencing a minor shortage of Oatly, but we should be fine in a couple of weeks. Pricing would not change from your first order; it generally says the same price. We also have other great oat milks such as Califia Oat, Chobani Oat, Pacific Oat, and Chobani Oat. Pricing for these other brands vary between $1 - $2 dollars more or less.” — Spruce Point distributor check, Northeast. “Our stock of Oatly has been unreliable and unstable lately. We have been experiencing frequent shortages. It’s currently out of stock again, and it may be out of stock for a few weeks. 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Chobani Oat and Silk Increase Discounts", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:04.123+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "647c317d-5a7d-47a1-bedf-072603c75cf6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Oatly Now Discounted", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:04.123+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "80bfde1c-dc40-4b93-b97f-55feaed5c2e4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.315 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Chobani Oat Offered 50% Off Next To Oatly", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:04.123+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a5d39d13-7347-40f5-9993-9612408137e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.67, "y": 0.315 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Oatly (Same Location) Now Being Discounted", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:04.123+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c16bd81e-3637-4e4b-b58e-ebc3fc1759ba", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Yogurt stocker told us that Oatly SKUs are being reduced", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87f-8c87803f8af2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.35, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Stop & Shop (Ahold) - Early June 2021 (top) and Early July 2021 (bottom)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Next up: Milk", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:07.537+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "54cb872e-092b-44c4-9bed-6076b4aeb77b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Our competitors also may obtain patents or other similar protected formulas that may hinder our ability to develop new products or enter new categories, which could have a material adverse effect on our growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:07.537+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "416eb1a0-bf17-4bc6-8ffb-d365bbfa9079", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Our competitors also may obtain patents or other similar protected formulas that may hinder our ability to develop new products or enter new categories, which could have a material adverse effect on our growth. — Oatly Risk Factor", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a87f-e0f06c33e204", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: US Patent Application, Impossible Foods, Inc, \"Methods and Compositions For Consumables\", Publication Date: Feb 25, 2021", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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However, it doesn't say that it failed earlier in its China ambitions, and that it has made conflicting statements about how it succeeded this time around.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.048+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a22d277b-b792-4cc9-8a68-2e92b0758d76", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.81, "x": 0.18, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "In 2018, we entered China, focusing again on penetrating specialty coffee and tea shops and quickly generating a powerful brand resonance with consumers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.048+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a5e07726-6320-48de-8a67-6de02e7ff37c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.81, "x": 0.18, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Zhang Chun, who was in charge of introducing Oatly into China, recalled with emotion that when it entered the Chinese market in 2018, Oatly first entered Ole, a high-end boutique supermarket owned by China Resources, but \"basically no one was interested in it.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.048+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e53822fa-9c47-48c0-b982-03578b8a0c49", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"In 2018, we entered China, focusing again on penetrating specialty coffee and tea shops and quickly generating a powerful brand resonance with consumers. We have since used premier foodservice partnerships to rapidly expand across the broader Asian region and facilitate market education for consuming plant-based milks as alternatives to dairy products, particularly with coffee and tea.\" — Oatly IPO prospectus, p. 5; \"Zhang Chun, who was in charge of introducing Oatly into China, recalled with emotion that when it entered the Chinese market in 2018, Oatly first entered Ole, a high-end boutique supermarket owned by China Resources, but \"basically no one was interested in it.\"\" — China Food Press, Sept 27, 2020", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a880-2ae36a31e7eb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.57, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Sales per market table showing 2012-2013 figures for Sweden, Nordic countries, Europe, and Rest of the world.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.048+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b1bc21fb-7cee-42a7-83ca-1fd843d4aa86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Oatly Has Made Conflicting Statements About Its China Strategy And Success", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.048+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e577274e-292d-4a90-9d37-8bf53a07e906", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 124, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 85, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "1c32506f-1c78-4442-a178-fa0f1eb2c40c", "matchId": "7230ea3f-aaaf-4b49-918a-f8d08a6534dc", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Conclusion and estimation of downside risk, supported by comprehensive evidence.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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We successfully entered the Chinese market in 2018 through the specialty coffee and tea channel, which we have since scaled to over 8,000 doors at the end of 2020... we had more than 8,200 points of sale in the channel.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:04.165+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "86e8be93-f0b6-4870-9aaa-64da179346ca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.0030499999999999998 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "With the establishment of boutique coffee shop, oatly even won a “big customer” in China this year: Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee chain. 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Chappell Jr", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "594d6d59-bf39-4365-b133-31eb24dbe0dc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "In June 2015, the CEO resigned, and Boulder was acquired for $11/share, or 52% below Chappell’s price target.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a880-425c971111a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Chappell Ups Boulder Price Target To $23/share – May 2014", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.546+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "442f65f3-e300-41b6-b29b-ab76075ad8ca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Oatly’s average analyst price target is $30.82 per share, but Truist (Formerly SunTrust Robinson Humphrey) has a Street high $35/share price target. Its most bullish analyst is William B. Chappell, Jr. We have a history of calling out this analyst’s overly promotional and bullish stock calls related to Boulder Brands (Nasdaq: BDBD), another food fad “growth” story.(1) Boulder ultimately took a significant goodwill impairment charge in Q3’2014 and guided results significantly below estimates by finally admitting headwinds in its spreads business and margin pressures. 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Per the Company's own trusted data source of Euromonitor, the plant-based dairy market in its key regions is expected to be $21 billion by 2025. However, Oatly's current valuation is almost $12 billion, or 62% of the projected market. Based on our current observations of the competitive dynamics, it would seem unlikely to us that Oatly ever captures such a high percentage of the market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:35:05.026+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "09bcb058-1c82-495e-b9e9-7917e1ef4219", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe investors are ascribing an irrationally high valuation to Oatly. Per the Company’s own trusted data source of Euromonitor, the plant-based dairy market in its key regions is expected to be $21 billion by 2025. 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Shortly after its IPO and chorus of “Strong Buy” recommendations, its 2021 – 2022 revenue expectations and multiple expanded. However, over time, revenue expectations are being tempered and its multiple is compressing. On average, BYND has traded at average one and two year forward multiples of 17x and 11x, respectively. However, BYND has significantly better gross margins that are more than 500bps higher than OTLY’s. At the current time, Oatly is trading at 17x and 9.5x 2021/2022E sales. 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Is it because they command lower multiples? Oatly trades at an astronomical 17x and 75x 2021E sales and adjusted gross margin. 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