{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36", "slug": "0a3a22290f60", "title": "GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)", "subtitle": "Spruce Point Capital Management · 2020-08", "author": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "date": "2020-08-18 00:00:00", "pageCount": 106, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "GFL Environmental Inc.", "targetTicker": "GFL", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36", "slug": "0a3a22290f60", "title": "GFL Environmental Inc. 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GFL Environmental, 106-page short report issued days after GFL announced the WCA acquisition (Aug 13 2020). Cover page is an editorial 3D render ('Green For Life, Red For Losses') with a garbage truck, spilled trash and rats — a standout specimen of short-seller cover design. Central rhetorical device is the Philip Services analogy (slide 14 side-by-side parallel table). CEO association network diagram on page 12 is a strong 'association-by-guilt' visual. The report leans heavily on forensic accounting (capex, EBITDA, debt), investigative journalism (Facebook/Instagram photos, court filings), and former-employee interview quotes. Closing on page 103 uses a hockey puck image ('If it looks like a zero, it is a zero') as a visual punchline. No explicit stake disclosed (short position, no percent). Valuation primarily multiple-comparison; 'sum-of-parts' is referenced critically via BMO analyst quote rather than built by Spruce Point, so contains_sum_of_parts is false but the framework is mentioned in passing.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "4.34x at June 30, 2020; Spruce Point estimates true pro-forma at 5.7x post WM/ADS and WCA", "metric": "Net leverage (reported)" }, { "detail": "At least C$460m understated vs reported 'Total Gross Debt'", "metric": "Total debt understatement" }, { "detail": "98% at GFL vs 41% peer average; highest in waste sector", "metric": "Goodwill & intangibles % of market cap" }, { "detail": "143 acquisitions; industry observer estimates >50% are failures", "metric": "Acquisitions since 2007" }, { "detail": "Moody's says 15%; GFL shows 10.5% — understated by ~33%", "metric": "Capex margin (WCA)" }, { "detail": "Inflated by ~2x; capex understated by ~19% in H1 2020", "metric": "Operating cash flow inflation" }, { "detail": "~60% greater than reported", "metric": "H1 2020 free cash flow burn" }, { "detail": "C$21.23 on 8/17/2020; sell-side average target C$24.92 (+17%)", "metric": "Share price" }, { "detail": "0.18% on US$0.01 quarterly token dividend", "metric": "Annualized dividend yield" }, { "detail": "16.1x at Spruce Point's adjusted EV vs 13.3x peer average", "metric": "EV/EBITDA 2020E (adjusted)" }, { "detail": "$79.7m settled by executives/underwriters including Deloitte", "metric": "Philip Services shareholder settlement" }, { "detail": "Average 77% share-price decline across Intertain, TSO3, Maxar, Just Energy", "metric": "Spruce Point Canadian short track record" } ], "closingAsk": "Avoid or sell GFL — the stock is a 'terminal zero' with 100% downside; the audit committee should engage an independent expert to review related-party dealings, as the company could be worthless absent continued capital raising.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:22:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 190.01976, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Shares at C$21.23 face a 'terminal zero' price target — 100% downside — as leverage approaches 5.7x, goodwill hits 98% of market cap (vs 41% peer average), and capital-raise dependence risks insolvency or auditor walk-away.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "CEO Dovigi scrubbed ties to organized-crime-linked figures and scandal-hit Canadian roll-ups from his biography", "Debt understated by at least C$460m and 'Run Rate' EBITDA inflates margins, mirroring the Philip Services fraud", "98% of market cap is goodwill/intangibles from 143 overpaid acquisitions; Spruce Point sees 100% downside" ], "scqaSituation": "GFL Environmental is a Canadian waste-services roll-up that acquired 143 companies since 2007 and dual-listed on NYSE/TSX in March 2020, with bullish sell-side analysts giving it full credit for the pending WM/ADS and WCA acquisitions.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point argues GFL Environmental — a Canadian waste-services roll-up dual-listed in March 2020 after 143 acquisitions since 2007 — mirrors the collapsed Philip Services fraud of the 1990s and warrants a Strong Sell with 100% downside. CEO Patrick Dovigi's biography omits ties to individuals linked to organized crime, mob figures and prior Canadian business scandals (NGTV, Fareport, Rizzo Environmental), while GFL's former General Counsel previously served Philip Services during its collapse. Forensic work alleges GFL understates debt by at least C$460m, inflates EBITDA through 'Run Rate' adjustments and intercompany revenue, and hides capex anomalies across filings. With 98% of market cap in goodwill/intangibles, pro-forma leverage near 5.7x, CEO shares pledged against margin loans, and two pending regulatory approvals on the WM/ADS and WCA deals, Spruce Point sees the auditor potentially walking and shares heading to zero.", "primaryDemands": [ "Investors should avoid or sell GFL shares given ~100% downside risk", "Audit committee should engage an independent expert to review related-party dealings between GFL and CEO Dovigi/associates", "Independent scrutiny of capex, EBITDA, debt and goodwill accounting; auditor (Deloitte) should reconsider sign-off", "Regulators and the DOJ should scrutinize the pending WM/ADS and WCA transactions" ], "scqaResolution": "Spruce Point urges investors to exit the stock as 'uninvestable' given financial-control issues, CEO relationships and pledged-share margin-loan risk; the audit committee should engage an independent expert to review related-party dealings.", "thesisOneLiner": "Spruce Point argues GFL Environmental is a 'terminal zero': a Canadian waste roll-up mimicking the Philip Services fraud playbook, with understated debt, CEO ties to organized crime, and 100% downside.", "precedentsCited": [ "Philip Services Corp (Canadian metals/services roll-up fraud, 1990s)", "Waste Management accounting scandal (1990s)", "Rizzo Environmental (U.S. fraud prior to GFL acquisition)", "Spruce Point prior shorts: Intertain, TSO3, Maxar, Just Energy", "Spruce Point prior shorts: Greif, CECO Environmental, LKQ, XPO Logistics", "Spruce Point prior shorts: Caesarstone, A.O. 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I would never put a dime in there. If you could see a mature management in the industry, absolutely, there's an opportunity....I have no confidence at this point and time.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:34.577+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6eb9ea8f-12ac-4868-b23f-bc7bdb70a844", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Does GFL have a path to profitability?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:34.577+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bce0bb8b-3e14-4e2f-98c8-aeff2b831b1d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.227 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Do you have confidence GFL can make money?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:34.577+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cfe0edb3-584c-4629-9e87-35e1b958847b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Under the current management structure and people, no. I would never put a dime in there. If you could see a mature management in the industry, absolutely, there's an opportunity....I have no confidence at this point and time. — Former GFL Employee 1", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:03+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca2-155af5676ffd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 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Granted there is a COVID-19 impact in H1 2020, but with so much money spent on acquisitions, Spruce Point is surprised there is no FCF growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:34.529+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eeb63e99-1840-448a-a12d-fa762e0aae0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Free Cash Flow: -59.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:03+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca2-70a8ceaeecc6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We have shown that both GFL's operating cash flow and capital expenditures do not reconcile. As a result, we believe its free cash flow is also misstated. We believe true H1 2020 free cash flow burn was ~60% worse than reported by GFL.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:34.529+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4e834f8c-76d9-4902-9c95-447ef8290f7b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"When you think about how cash flow and leverage should play out over the balance of the year, we should incur an additional $140 million to $150 million of CAPEX and approximately $140 million, $145 million of cash interest costs in the second half of the year. If you layer on the conservative assumption of working capital, ending the year as cash flow neutral, you get to a free cash flow number of somewhere between $275 million and $300 million for the back half of the year, depending on your views of where we end up in terms of EBITDA.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:34.529+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cfff2497-830a-469a-ad00-a7a91525dc74", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"When you think about how cash flow and leverage should play out over the balance of the year, we should incur an additional $140 million to $150 million of CAPEX and approximately $140 million, $145 million of cash interest costs in the second half of the year. If you layer on the conservative assumption of working capital, ending the year as cash flow neutral, you get to a free cash flow number of somewhere between $275 million and $300 million for the back half of the year, depending on your views of where we end up in terms of EBITDA.\" — GFL Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:03+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca2-6e2a80a16ea6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: GFL and Spruce Point Analysis. 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In lieu of any pension obligations, Mr. Dovigi or his affiliates will also be the beneficiary of a whole life insurance policy, the premiums for which will be paid for by the Company. 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Yet, GFL's total deals completed from 2011 – 2013 are claimed to be 16, and total deals from 2007-2013 are 23. 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We find no evidence of operating leverage being created.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:37.882+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "01749102-a092-44bf-a67d-9b2a0aad834f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "By positioning ourselves as a \"one-stop\" environmental services provider, we plan to leverage our diverse service offerings to unlock potential cross-selling opportunities across our business lines. 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If one division is outperforming to forecasts, they'll transfer some of those dollars to a division that isn't performing so well to bolster those numbers. An example would be between hauling and transfer stations. They'll allocate the repair/fuel/labor to truck repair and transfer, over to hauling to bolster either P&L to basically suit what the market is looking for. Should they do it, no, do they do it, yes. But that's not unique to GFL; GFL is a special case. 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As a privately-held company, we were not required to evaluate our internal control over financial reporting in a manner that meets the standards of publicly traded companies required by Section 404(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (\"Section 404\"), in the United States, or National Instrument 52-109Certification of Disclosure in Issuers' Annual and Interim Filings (\"NI 52-109\"), in Canada. In connection with the audit of our consolidated financial statements, management has identified certain control deficiencies during its time as a privately-held company that together amount to a material weakness. A material weakness is a deficiency, or a combination of deficiencies, in internal control over financial reporting, such that there is a reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of the company's annual or interim consolidated financial statements will not be prevented or detected on a timely basis. 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Yet, mysteriously this language disappeared in its final IPO prospectus in March 2020, leading investors to believe that the weakness was either remedied or did not exist.(1) Upon further investigation, including a review of GFL's Q1 and Q2 2020 results, Spruce Point finds evidence that financial control deficiencies may still exist.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:40.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bdfbaf28-e5ae-48f0-b768-8c19895b1164", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Initial F-1 (July 2019) and F-1 (Feb 3, 2020) 1) Final Prospectus (March 2020) states \"if material weaknesses are identified\" and \"Our testing, or the subsequent testing by our independent registered public accounting firm, may reveal deficiencies in our internal controls over financial reporting which are deemed to be material weaknesses which could result in a material misstatement of our annual consolidated financial statements, our interim reports, or disclosures that may not be prevented or detected.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We observe that GFL's historical revenue for Q1 2019 does not even match between its Management Discussion & Analysis section and its Financial Statements. We believe this is an extreme concern and GFL's audit committee should investigate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:37.911+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5c92ccce-9f20-4230-a8f5-e9b31c110158", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point believes that if revenue cannot be accurately depicted, then investors should have limited confidence in GFL's entire financial reporting.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:07+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca4-60391bff049c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:07+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca4-6baccf18c5de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I would describe the Company as very aggressive.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:37.911+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8fad0f2f-61c3-4551-a774-c7c3302f11c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I would describe the Company as very aggressive. — Former GFL Financial Professional", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:07+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca4-657758973da2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: GFL Q1 2020 MD&A p. 5", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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opinion, GFL is showing investors an inaccurate measure of its leverage. Per its own IPO Prospectus, its lenders evaluate it on a “Net Funded Debt” measure, and not “Total Gross Debt” as depicted in its recent earnings press release. 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Per its own IPO Prospectus, its lenders evaluate it on a \"Net Funded Debt\" measure, and not \"Total Gross Debt\" as depicted in its recent earnings press release.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca5-90e7ffac962e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Net Leverage: 7.68x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca5-9ba8c3a75f11", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.42, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For the year ended December 31, 2019, based on a Run-Rate EBITDA of $924.7 million, our consolidated total net \"funded\" debt to Run-Rate EBITDA ratio was 6.85 to 1.00...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:40.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2702b591-805c-4373-afa4-00bb0f569204", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Net \"funded\" debt is calculated under our Revolving Credit Facility by starting with the long-term indebtedness shown on our most recent balance sheet plus lease obligations that are set forth separately from our long-term indebtedness on our balance sheet minus cash on hand. — GFL IPO Prospectus", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca5-9564dc30ef2a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.86 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Q2 2020 press release", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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}, "componentId": "183f9552-081e-4ff5-a699-dfd8510d3c3b", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "bf6879e6-3df5-4581-a8b1-a05b0ddda564", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames a discrepancy between public reporting and internal prospectus definitions to allege misrepresentation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:40.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 56, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 57, "type": "analysis", "title": "The table highlights the discrepancy between company-reported debt and Spruce Point's adjusted figures, specifically focusing on the impact of acquisitions.", "function": "analyze_data", "rawType": "valuation_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "valuation_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-12c3-77cd-8474-6cd39cf844cb", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "analyze_data", "functionCanon": { "name": "Analyze data", "slug": "analyze_data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1590-7413-8c82-cc218cff40b4", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 56, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 957, "nDataPoints": 60, "notes": "The table highlights the discrepancy between company-reported debt and Spruce Point's adjusted figures, specifically focusing on the impact of acquisitions.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.323+00", "seconds": 6.977, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36/57", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36#slide-57", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We estimate GFL's debt is C$460m more than reported and financial data providers fail to capture the adjustments.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": 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However, this figure conveniently ignores leases, related-party debt owed to CEO Dovigi and the TEU Notes which are debt equivalents. We estimate GFL's debt is C$460m more than reported and financial data providers fail to capture the adjustments. 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"attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:09+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca5-cff2a173e343", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Run-Rate EBITDA declined sequentially from Q1 to Q2 from C$1,059.5m to C$1,036.3, by or 2.2%. 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null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca4-c09d12f79f4c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Adjusted EPS: $0.01", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", 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The stock eventually collapsed towards insolvency.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca5-5ffc318f2626", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Capex", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca5-626cec318f1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point observes that Philip Services Corp. also understated its Capex through the cash flow statement after completing its IPO in the U.S. and Canada. 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As a result, we believe its free cash flow is also potentially misstated. We believe adjusted H1 2020 free cash flow burn was ~60% worse than reported by GFL.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:41.148+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "818bf892-9100-4894-94c2-ee89c59228e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.45, "y": 0.0088 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Since Jan 1, 2019 GFL has spent over C$1.8bn on acquisitions and OCF has barely increased while FCF has worsened. Granted there is a COVID-19 impact in H1 2020, but with so much money spent on acquisitions, Spruce Point is surprised there is no FCF growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:41.148+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d6861b79-01ed-4cad-926b-5aa4e4a1b8ac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.0026 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "When you think about how cash flow and leverage should play out over the balance of the year, we should incur an additional $140 million to $150 million of CAPEX and approximately $140 million, $145 million of cash interest costs in the second half of the year. If you layer on the conservative assumption of working capital, ending the year as cash flow neutral, you get to a free cash flow number of somewhere between $275 million and $300 million for the back half of the year, depending on your views of where we end up in terms of EBITDA.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:41.148+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2c19c895-0c86-40e2-8303-0012092f8625", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "When you think about how cash flow and leverage should play out over the balance of the year, we should incur an additional $140 million to $150 million of CAPEX and approximately $140 million, $145 million of cash interest costs in the second half of the year. If you layer on the conservative assumption of working capital, ending the year as cash flow neutral, you get to a free cash flow number of somewhere between $275 million and $300 million for the back half of the year, depending on your views of where we end up in terms of EBITDA. — GFL Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca6-70ed6f960c9b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.0088 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: GFL and Spruce Point Analysis. 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}, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As at December 31, 2019 we had 112.5 million tonnes (2018: 113.9 million tonnes, 2017: 11.7 million tonnes) of remaining permitted capacity at the landfills we own and at the landfill in Quebec where we have designated access to a fixed level of capacity over the next 15 years.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:41.706+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": 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After proving it could successfully enter the US market, despite a few early hiccups, the company's Waste Industries platform deal in 2018 (purchased for ~US$2.8bn [C$3.65bn] from Macquarie) was one of the highest-quality assets in the space. Although the company arguably did not get the asset very cheaply, the post-synergy multiple (building volume density with tuck-in deals) is quite attractive. Moreover, the WM/ADSW divestitures mandated by the DOJ were acquired by GFL recently. We acknowledge that there was some market expectation already baked in that GFL was the front runner on the deal, but the deal came in larger than most were expecting ($345mm in revenue vs $200mm+). It is also important to note that the ADSW asset is very complementary to GFL's Waste Industries business (for more detail see A Sigh of Relief)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:42.178+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "074afcdf-d1f6-4ed7-bba9-fe1da33b0fdb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Jefferies Initiation, July 1, 2020", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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With net losses projected to be ~$270m in the first nine months through Sept 30th and seeking funds through an IPO, how could GFL argue that a $15m settlement wasn’t material?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca6-c10c1851eaeb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GFL's first foray into the U.S. was its $2.8bn merger with Waste industries in Nov 2018. In its Nov 1, 2019 F-1 SEC filing, GFL claimed it was “vigorously disputing the merits” of a legal case with Decatur County, and that it “cannot predict the final outcome of the dispute”. GFL said any legal resolutions would not have a material effect on it financial position. As such, it appears GFL did not take a legal accrual or charge for this litigation. Yet, with the benefit of a FOIA request, we see that GFL settled the case just 12 days later on Nov 12, 2019 for $15m. How could it not predict the outcome? 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We are excited to welcome the management team and the more than 2,850 employees of Waste Industries to the GFL family.\" — GFL Press Release. \"We do not believe Decatur County’s allegations are supported or accurate. The Waste Industries Parties are vigorously disputing the merits of Decatur County’s claims, but we cannot predict the final outcome of this dispute.\" — F-1 Filed Nov 1st, 2019. \"In the normal course of business activities, the Company is subject to a number of claims and legal actions that are made by customers, suppliers or others. 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The bulk of what we're getting is gold.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:42.812+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47036dd7-fa9a-4faa-a569-c5f9de1d8210", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"First, I think the majority of what we're getting is stuff that is coming off of the ADS platform... we are very well positioned to integrate these assets very easily.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:42.812+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f92e68e-f6a0-40b6-be4a-4389ff27c3a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"That's, yeah I mean like I said like in any acquisition Michael, you've got your gold, silver, bronze and you get a couple of pieces lead. Right? It's what you do with the couple of lead you make a bronze, silver and silver gold. The bulk of what we're getting is gold. There's some silver and bronze and a couple of pieces of lead. We've got to figure out what to do with the lead. But you have to take the good with the bad.\" — GFL Management (Call Transcript). \"First, I think the majority of what we're getting is stuff that is coming off of the ADS platform. ADS operates on the same operating platform as us being an operating platform called trucks. 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Moody's describes WCA as “disjointed operating footprint and lower margins”. S&P points out that it expects WCA’s total revenues to contract for 2020, a fact that GFL did not highlight to investors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a105eeba-e100-4d78-abe4-01a4bce9ff71", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "From two independent third-party credit rating agencies, we see a less optimistic view about the potential and history of WCA Waste.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca7-337a1a19c530", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.36, "w": 0.485, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a vertically-integrated waste management company... WCA's collection revenues stemming from commercial customers is rather low, further restricting overall margins.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2b5a0e9e-281b-4080-9e2c-4027e24cb890", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.36, "w": 0.465, "x": 0.525, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A weak domestic macroeconomic environment will likely hurt collection and disposal volumes... 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"description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.743+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f192f53b-e1b8-4248-adfe-a6344c255aef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“And under the watch of Bill Caesar really done a great job of putting in multiple disciplines with that business in transforming that business really over the last 7, 8-years.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, 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The double digit interest rates paid by Soil Safe at a time of ultra low borrowing costs illustrate that Soil Safe was a deeply distressed company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca7-c7ca00fa8706", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Fair Value: $140m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca7-ce69a01c12cc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GFL announced the acquisition of Soil Safe in July 2019. The deal announcement lacked financial terms... It appears that Soil Safe was struggling to make money and having to borrow at double digit interest rates.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.988+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41595569-52ef-4aec-a776-caed05d7cb54", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Soil Safe and its management team led by Mark Smith, are recognized as industry leaders... We are excited to welcome Soil Safe and its employees to the GFL team.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.988+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f8fc5312-461c-4a03-bc1e-0447333aa586", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Soil Safe and its management team led by Mark Smith, are recognized as industry leaders in contaminated soil recycling and the development of inert soil products for beneficial use in sustainable construction and green building applications. GFL is one of the largest processors of contaminated soils in Canada and our acquisition of Soil Safe is in keeping with our strategy of replicating all of our service offerings in the US,\" said Patrick Dovigi, GFL's Founder and Chief Executive Officer. \"Soil Safe's in-house expertise and recycled products complement and extend our existing capabilities as we build our infrastructure business to service our customers' needs across North America. We are excited to welcome Soil Safe and its employees to the GFL team.\" — Patrick Dovigi, GFL's Founder and Chief Executive Officer", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca7-c849edf277c6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Ares 10-Q 6/30/19 and 10-Q 9/30/19 1) GFL Press Release", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We estimate Bestway had $30m of sales, and GFL paid a hefty 2.8x / 10x multiple of sales and EBITDA.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca7-e52de77f0694", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GFL announced the acquisition of Bestway, pushing its expansion into the Midwest Colorado Springs region. The deal was promoted by Regional VP John Griffith, who described the deal “as an exceptional fit”, that customers “shouldn’t notice any change in service”, and that all of Bestway’s management and senior staff would stay on with the business. However, Spruce Point’s research reveals otherwise. Customer complaints’ surged and GFL’s VP Griffith has since resigned.(1) Furthermore, we’ve heard that senior Bestway management has left the business, and their LinkedIn profiles corroborate this by not mentioning GFL.(2) Based on our research, GFL paid $84m. We estimate Bestway had $30m of sales, and GFL paid a hefty 2.8x / 10x multiple of sales and EBITDA.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:43.963+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8b592616-ec31-4231-b9fb-e6bc01497675", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Bestway is a great company and compliments GFL's existing footprint in Colorado,\" says John Griffith, a regional vice president of GFL. \"This merger is an exceptional fit for both companies, because it allows for Bestway to access to GFL's greater resources, capital, and expertise in things like safety and sustainability, while still allowing Bestway to maintain its culture of excellent customer service and its special relationship with the Colorado Springs community to remain intact. Griffith said that apart from some technological upgrades coming to Bestway's internal systems, its existing customers shouldn't notice any change in services. All of Bestway's 153 employees and management team were retained in the merger. \"We are proud that all of Bestway's management and senior staff has been invited to stay post-merger and has elected to do so,\" Griffith says. \"With the addition of the Bestway team, the future very bright for GFL in Colorado.\" — John Griffith, GFL Regional VP", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca7-eacfacf066b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: “Transition From Bestway To GFL An Uphill Battle”, CSBJ, Feb 2020; “GFL working to overcome trash service issues for Colorado Springs customers”, KKTV11, July 2020; “GFL acquires Colorado-based Bestway Disposal”, Recycling Today, March 2019; Yelp Reviews", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The Company has operated without an air quality permit for years. Locals claim the foul stench is a serious problem. GFL must contain the odors within 1km of the facility, but has claimed onerous capital investment as a means to appeal. 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Based on our research, we believe GFL is reaching up against potential antitrust / competitive issues and market saturation in Canada.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b993b7c-4be8-48a8-ac18-07ccb5cd1dc2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "130 acquisitions: show me the math on the organic growth or are you just taking management's word for it?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3c92c319-df31-454d-b115-586c0512d130", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Perhaps valuation discount exists because GFL management are poor at operations?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "51a41047-1e93-493d-b4ef-5cd4c34a118c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.82, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Impossible to evaluate the parts when few details about the acquisition parts are provided!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "941eb61c-173b-4e63-85d9-7c8deeb9cf93", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Any specifics and why hasn't this been achieved over the past few years? What has GFL been doing all this time?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f3703e2f-0337-4205-8d89-0fa5fc435e1f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point finds little independent evaluation of management's claims from the sell-side analysts, whom are compensated with lucrative fees for assisting GFL with financing and M&A advisory fees to implement its roll-up.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca8-b42c54efcde6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GFL Environmental Inc. (Overweight; Price Target $21.00) Investment Thesis. We rate GFL Overweight with a Dec-20 price target of US$21...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8c022c3e-efdd-4517-a3e7-7281c8109f58", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GFL's growth has been driven by acquisitions with strong organic growth over the past two years. The company has completed nearly 130 acquisitions since 2007, including eight in Q1/20...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9b36c7a8-952a-4da4-a151-0f57ed0d7715", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point finds little independent evaluation of management's claims from the sell-side analysts, whom are compensated with lucrative fees for assisting GFL with financing and M&A advisory fees to implement its roll-up.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2406aeb-ec47-4e28-858c-9c265973fc32", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We believe that GFL is relatively better insulated from COVID-19 volume declines due to a significant portion of its revenues coming from residential customers and fewer landfill assets which translates into less decremental margins. We continue to see a pathway for GFL to improve its margins and FCF every year over our forecast period, driven by still strong pricing, cost rationalization, and a larger solid waste footprint. — JP Morgan", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca8-b87aeefdc61c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Bull Case Narrative Is All \"Trust Me\" Fluff", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c41762d8-7b22-45a8-8682-680f195f7d11", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "e1da842b-3912-4809-a80f-235378efc1df", "evidence": "Contrasting analyst claims with activist rebuttal questions", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.452+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 98, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 99, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a dialogue format to present negative sentiment from former employees.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "testimonial", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "testimonial", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0a2d-7782-8a48-7e84df92cc97", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 33, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 1089, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a dialogue format to present negative sentiment from former employees.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.789+00", "seconds": 4.289, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36/99", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36#slide-99", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-f7d835dc2a36.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.7, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Dialogue between Spruce Point and former employees regarding GFL's profitability.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Comparison list", "slug": "comparison", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fce7-733e-99d3-030a104727bf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "comparison", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.789+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c033d62f-857c-4d4a-8bcc-bee2fd48b20e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Under the current management structure and people, no. I would never put a dime in there. If you could see a mature management in the industry, absolutely, there's an opportunity....I have no confidence at this point and time.\" — Former GFL Employee 1; \"There are two parts, U.S. and Canada. Canada is quite saturated and prices are competitive. Chances of making big profits in solid waste, are not going to happen. GFL's main money maker is the infrastructure business. I am less familiar with the U.S. side of the business. It's tough to say if GFL will make money in the next year or two.\" — Former GFL Employee 2; \"That's the wildcard in the GFL story, that's the gamble. Acquisitions play a key part to keep the momentum going. What happens when acquisitions stop? You need profitability. Can they turn around? Today they are not making money. That's a fact. I don't know if they can. 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"subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca8-f3ae39ec39af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While many GFL stock promoters will point to its revenues and EBITDA to argue it's undervalued to peers, none have pointed out the unexplained financial revisions to these figures that undermine confidence in its reporting, or point out the staggering amount of goodwill and intangibles assets on its balance sheet, accumulated from overpaying for assets in our view. We have provided numerous examples of deals that have had problems, suggesting that these intangible assets are at risk of impairment. GFL's has the highest market cap to intangible assets in the industry. If, as suggested by an industry observer, more than half of GFL's deals are failures, we believe its market cap could easily be halved.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.237+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cde79389-dc21-44fe-be1f-8d631d68c3c3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "If I were to take a conservative estimate, well over 50% of GFL's 100+ acquisitions I'd characterize as a failure.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:46.237+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "78269ce9-88be-4fff-9e62-4bd32f1c0cf8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“If I were to take a conservative estimate, well over 50% of GFL’s 100+ acquisitions I’d characterize as a failure.” — Industry Observer Familiar With GFL In Canada", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca8-eefd5e2814ca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company filings and market data. 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"parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "annualized yield: 0.18%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:47:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ed-775b-bca9-0feedf42755e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes “creative” financial engineering by GFL around its subordinated common stock has broadened its shareholder base. Despite not making money, GFL pays a token US$ 0.01 cent quarterly dividend on its subordinate voting shares, giving the stock an annualized yield of just 0.18%. We find that two funds – one fund calling itself a “monthly high income fund” and another an “income fund” – own GFL. Spruce Point is baffled why a “monthly” income fund would own a stock that pays a quarterly dividend, and is hard pressed to see why a paltry 0.18% yield is attractive. 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