{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "slug": "207d3ac66ddd", "title": "Canadian Tire Corporation (CTC.A)", "subtitle": "Spruce Point Capital Management · 2019-12", "author": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "date": "2019-12-05 00:00:00", "pageCount": 108, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Canadian Tire Corporation", "targetTicker": "CTC.A", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "slug": "207d3ac66ddd", "title": "Canadian Tire Corporation (CTC.A)", "rawTitle": "64e7a34a7ec947f1406f9361 ctc research thesis 12 5 2019", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "authorDisplay": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2019-12-64e7a34a7ec947f1406f9361_ctc_research_thesis_12-5-2019.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2019-12-05 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2019-12-05 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 21:16:11+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 108, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Canadian Tire Corporation", "targetTicker": "CTC.A", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/207d3ac66ddd", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 122.69084095954895 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 108, "pagesIndexed": 108, "pagesWithImages": 108, "pagesWithMetadata": 108, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 720, "chartCount": 31, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 19, "documentToolMatches": 6, "frameworkMatches": 82, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "4618167d-a898-45e1-a649-14878d716fc4", "evidence": "The document follows a problem-agitate-solution narrative arc, highlighting the problems with Canadian Tire's business model, agitating these issues, and providing a solution in the form of a short sell opinion.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:13.032308+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 10, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "d4fb1d8e-c4ae-452c-a4af-ab8ddbec22c5", "matchId": "4618167d-a898-45e1-a649-14878d716fc4", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies several problems with Canadian Tire's business model, including its overleveraged and debt-fueled model, deteriorating cash conversion cycle, and intense competition.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 73, "from": 64, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "571d2017-29bc-4989-a48f-ab0612dfd6a4", "evidence": "The document highlights the risks of Canadian Tire's business model and the potential consequences of inaction.", "position": 0, "objective": "Highlight the risks of Canadian Tire's overleveraged and debt-fueled business model", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:13.178525+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 87, "from": 74, "loop": { "name": "41_so_what_cascade", "slug": "41-so-what-cascade", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Data presentations, executive summaries, driving to recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-769f-7208-afbc-f28985c6f4fb", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Data -> So What? 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The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "8e986b59-b0ea-4003-a5f3-9697c6ebcb4d", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". 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The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "0ddc6061-5eb5-475a-b08d-724a4c7e00e2", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "e1eb5cec-dd77-4b5f-8c45-11771957b7c6", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Thesis archetype", "slug": "thesis-archetype", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b0b-7428-9b26-f171d1e753fb", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A canonical investment / activist thesis shape (breakup, fraud, governance).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "cc2fd2ca-c4f6-4b89-aadf-b20fcdcbb706", "evidence": "The slide presents a clear thesis statement, 'Spruce Point Estimates 35%-50% Downside Risk', which is a typical archetype for a thesis-driven presentation.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:02:19.906486+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "optional", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "bc191a63-59aa-434c-9c52-66f4d2ada277", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Executive Summary', which is a clear indicator of an executive summary.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:02:19.985801+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Comparison frame", "slug": "comparison-frame", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-484b-7399-a4fc-d14644b99f93", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Two or more states/subjects placed side by side to expose a gap.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "c16b9a98-ac99-4143-8084-6ca9f600a8fa", "evidence": "The slide presents a comparison table between Spruce Point's view and consensus, which is a typical comparison frame.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:02:20.066925+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Problem Statement Canvas", "slug": "problem-statement-canvas", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-839d-744b-ad11-9bf3e3642a18", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Structured definition of the problem: What? 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null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 100, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" }, { "matchId": "477fe448-a429-4652-8a33-6128dbb24412", "evidence": "The slide breaks down the company into three distinct business segments (Retail, CT REIT, Financial Services) to calculate a total equity value.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:28.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 102, "frameworkName": "sum-of-the-parts-valuation" }, { "matchId": "05c664d4-c08f-4b54-a7a6-7cb54ec664cd", "evidence": "The slide uses a peer group table to contrast Canadian Tire's valuation against industry competitors.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:26.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 105, 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Closing slide is a lone tire on white — memorable. Uses CEO quote on credit card risk to contradict filings. Strong adversarial tone with named individuals (Diana Chant) and governance attacks on Billes family dual-class structure. No explicit stake disclosed (typical for short-seller decks). Ticker is CTC/CTC.A on TSX (listed on cover as TSE:CTC/CTC.A).", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "3.45x vs. 2.5x target required to avoid downgrade", "metric": "Adjusted Net Debt / EBITDAR leverage (reported)" }, { "detail": "5.6x once C$1bn+ of dealer and 3rd-party bank guarantees are included", "metric": "Total Debt / EBITDAR (Spruce Point adjusted)" }, { "detail": "~C$1,600m vs. pro forma FCF of only ~C$209m", "metric": "Required debt paydown" }, { "detail": "7.5+ years assuming no capital return", "metric": "Years to delever at current FCF" }, { "detail": "C$593m (C$350m buybacks + C$243m dividends) exceeds FCF, leaving -C$383m for debt", "metric": "Projected capital returns" }, { "detail": "C$200m (5.8% of SG&A), same as Sears, JCPenney, Circuit City before distress", "metric": "Management cost savings plan" }, { "detail": "~C$750m increase in the week after announcement", "metric": "Market cap reaction to cost plan" }, { "detail": "C$225-275m at 7-10x FCF multiple = C$1,575-2,750m retail equity value", "metric": "Spruce Point 2021E Retail FCF" }, { "detail": "68% of recent loan growth came from moderate and high risk customer classifications", "metric": "Credit card loan mix" }, { "detail": "Website visitors are 25x more likely to visit amazon.ca", "metric": "Amazon.ca vs. CTC traffic" }, { "detail": "Increased from 50% to 75% over the last 2 years", "metric": "Amazon app usage by CTC mobile users" }, { "detail": "Dropped from 100 in 2005 to 69 in 2018", "metric": "Canadian dual-class listed companies" }, { "detail": "Multiple Buy/Hold, only Veritas rates Sell at C$127", "metric": "Sell-side rating distribution" }, { "detail": "4 prior Canadian campaigns, avg. share price decline 57%", "metric": "Spruce Point Canadian track record" } ], "closingAsk": "Short Canadian Tire (TSE: CTC.A) — Spruce Point's Strong Sell with 35-50% downside to C$77-100.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:16:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 122.69084, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Sum-of-parts valuation of Retail (7-10x FCF), CT REIT stake and Financial Services yields C$77-100 per share — 35-50% downside from the current C$151 price, vs. sell-side average target of C$167.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "operational_turnaround", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Overleveraged 5.4x with C$1.6bn required paydown — buybacks and dividend are unsustainable", "C$200m cost savings plan mirrors Sears, JCPenney and Circuit City's pre-bankruptcy playbook", "Aggressive accounting and risky credit card lending mask declining organic retail EPS" ], "scqaSituation": "Canadian Tire is one of Canada's largest retailers, perceived by Bay Street as a dependable mid-single-digit compounder with iconic brands, a Triangle Rewards program, a 20% Scotiabank-owned bank, and an 80%-owned CT REIT.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point argues Canadian Tire (TSE: CTC.A) is a structurally uncompetitive brick-and-mortar retailer whose mid-single-digit growth narrative rests on a web of risk: C$11.2bn of debt and guarantees (5.4x EBITDAR vs. the 3.7x management reports), a credit card book loaded with high-risk borrowers, and aggressive accounting tweaks that flatter EPS. Management's C$200m cost-cutting plan echoes the identical last-ditch announcements made by Sears, JCPenney and Circuit City before distress, while forced asset sales (CT REIT stake) and continued buybacks betray a company unable to fund Helly Hansen, Party City Canada and its dividend from free cash flow. A credit downgrade and deleveraging would require C$1.6bn of cuts, collapsing the capital-return thesis. Spruce Point's sum-of-parts pegs fair value at C$77-100, implying 35-50% downside from C$151.", "primaryDemands": [ "Short Canadian Tire shares with Strong Sell opinion", "Question management's $200m cost savings plan as last-ditch window dressing", "Reassess CTC's true leverage (5.4x net debt/EBITDAR incl. guarantees) vs. reported 3.7x", "Reduce/halt buybacks and dividend to deleverage ahead of credit downgrade", "Challenge dual-class share structure shielding Billes family from accountability" ], "scqaResolution": "Sell the stock: management's C$200m cost plan is theater, buybacks and dividends must be cut to deleverage, and analysts covering CTC have ignored the true balance sheet risk and Helly Hansen margin drag.", "thesisOneLiner": "Canadian Tire is an over-levered legacy retailer masking decline with aggressive accounting and risky credit card lending; looming downgrade forces asset sales and 35-50% downside to C$77-100.", "precedentsCited": [ "Sears $200m cost savings plan 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Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 14, "type": "tension", "title": "Includes a waterfall-style calculation of cash flow available to pay down debt and a calculation of required paydown vs. capacity.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "problem_statement", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "problem_statement", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Problem statement", "slug": "problem_statement", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0879-768d-bba8-8da8a5a121d4", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 71, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1363, "nDataPoints": 22, "notes": "Includes a waterfall-style calculation of cash flow available to pay down debt and a calculation of required paydown vs. capacity.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.214+00", "seconds": 3.714, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68/14", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68#slide-14", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "7.5+ years Required to delever based on LTM FCF and assuming no return of capital to investors. We believe CTC will not be able to reduce its leverage by the end of 2020 without selling assets", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.214+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2468beee-d6aa-450a-9804-37437a1f0274", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.825 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our analysis shows, CTC does not have the required free cash flow to maintain its current level capital returns and reduce its leverage", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.214+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e958d3a-6c42-49e8-9bae-0d5779db65b6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Adj. Net Debt/Adj. EBITDAR Leverage: 3.45x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:51+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a19d-e9911a9c2abb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe it will be difficult for CTC to reduce its leverage to the level necessary to maintain its current credit ratings. Equity investors and sell-side analysts are accustomed to a combination of share buybacks and dividend payments. We believe if the Company does not reduce the current capital allocated to buybacks and dividends, CTC will not have the necessary cash flow to reduce its leverage. Investors will be disappointed by the reduction in capital return plans and will be surprised by a potential credit downgrade given sell-side analysts positive view on the Company’s financial position.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.214+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "52071bbd-9929-4b04-a5eb-1b87573d41e3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1) Reported in cash flow from financing due to IFRS 16 (YTD Q3'19). Q4'18 is reflected in cash flow from operations 2) Net debt adjusted to include purchase of Party City Canada 3) Reflects Q4'18 rent expense and Spruce Point estimated Party City Canada LTM rent Source: Company financials, Spruce Point analysis", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 15, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a red bracket and callout boxes to highlight the impact of $1bn+ in guarantees on the final leverage ratios.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 63, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 877, "nDataPoints": 75, "notes": "The slide uses a red bracket and callout boxes to highlight the impact of $1bn+ in guarantees on the final leverage ratios.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.972+00", "seconds": 4.438, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68/15", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68#slide-15", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.42, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Leverage is significantly higher than it appears", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.972+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "31b7a248-2a56-4f69-b034-7d69f72c8960", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "$1bn+ of guarantees not included in debt calculations", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:12.972+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ac4bef2f-3dbb-4120-981f-8bed744901e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Net Debt / EBITDAR: 5.4x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:51+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a19e-8f33ea63713a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe sell-side analysts are underestimating Canadian Tire's total exposure. This explains sell-side comments of CTC's strong financial flexibility while the rating agencies warn of a downgrade without reducing leverage. The most worrying factor is the lack of consistency between analysts' debt calculations. 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I mean we put our aspirations out a few years ago, I guess it was, for performance and bottom line and ROIC performance. It's extremely important we hit those numbers, but it was more important in our Operational Efficiency Program overall that we drove what's necessary for our customer experience. That, bar none, had to be the number one priority both from a digital point of view and from our ability to collect data and analyze it and use it in the proper way... So now's the time. We've got things up and running. We feel quite confident, and so now is the time to push it, but we have to hit those numbers. 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We believe this is a clear sign of increased efficiencies by Ontario Teachers' to make Helly Hansen more attractive for a sale.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.568+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4403be6a-d1fb-48a5-bdd9-d44a46430599", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "In our opinion, the implied EBITDA multiple of ~20x (based on the purchase price of C$985m and LTM EBITDA ~C$50m) is evidence Canadian Tire over paid for a lousy asset", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.568+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bdae8918-383d-4dad-8d28-d591aeadc8f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Historical Operational EBITDA chart (2014-2017)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.568+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a68d795d-7383-4bbc-92fe-e1a97c31c6bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "EBITDA multiple: ~20x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a3-4b06e8eee5d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Canadian Tire announced its acquisition of Helly Hansen (HH) in May 2018. HH had a history of private equity ownership. We believe CTC significantly overpaid for the business.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.568+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d334ed5b-9b83-49fc-a778-543cfdd76aec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.36, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We focused on the basics of getting cash in as quickly as we could... Quite frankly the first three to four months weren't particularly pleasant...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.568+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1ac04eca-2176-44d4-bb36-b305ef76a8fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.36, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Under the turnaround Helly Hansen overhauled its management and cut its product lines by a quarter. Working capital fell to a third from more than a half of its sales as it reduced inventories and cut capital spending.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.568+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "999de1a6-bd46-4ace-848d-e19e2ec69c17", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Under the turnaround Helly Hansen overhauled its management and cut its product lines by a quarter. Working capital fell to a third from more than a half of its sales as it reduced inventories and cut capital spending.\" — Financial Times (FT); \"We focused on the basics of getting cash in as quickly as we could... Quite frankly the first three to four months weren't particularly pleasant... 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Is it a coincidence that Party City has been private equity owned and Thomas H. Lee Partners remains its largest shareholder?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46916ebe-1c29-45ce-9bb3-1d9226e4e0d3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.46, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Why wouldn't Party City Canada face the same pressure from e-commerce as Party City has in the United States? The pressure on Party City's U.S. business has resulted in the closure of 45 stores in 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "94a0f750-1bc7-45dd-9aa9-ae013cf5822b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe there are many similarities between CTC's acquisition of Party City's Canadian business and its failed acquisition of Helly Hansen.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a0-e37d6d0d0e83", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.52, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Historical and Forecasted Retail Sales and EBITDA for Party City Canada", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c4f630ed-61e2-4bb7-b432-5d0ed10bd816", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "EBITDA growth: 75%+", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a0-e63f5c644df8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe Party City Canada's financial forecast is overly optimistic and reminds us of the optimism before the Helly Hansen acquisition. We find it very hard to believe the projected 25% revenue CAGR given customers accessibility to purchasing party goods online and the overall weakening retail sector", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "43d02357-4883-49b5-8b95-4d8395bb78c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe there are many similarities between CTC's acquisition of Party City's Canadian business and its failed acquisition of Helly Hansen. In our opinion, CTC overpaid for Party City Canada based on overly optimistic 3-year financial assumptions of doubling sales and 75%+ EBITDA growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4c2646ad-862f-4129-828e-15c7eb7384ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.46, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company filings, Spruce Point analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"833cd978-e43b-4dd3-b626-42052f1810ef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Gross Profit Margin", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-1683541200b6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Since the acquisition of Helly Hansen, we have reason to believe CTC's legacy retail business is struggling. CTC's retail business (ex-Petroleum and ex-HH) is experiencing weaker revenue growth and persistent gross profit margin compression.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:18.66+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1b050009-e98e-4bdf-be29-15381be87d67", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: Spruce Point estimates Helly Hansen Gross Profit Margin of 43% based on Q3 2018 earnings call of \"gross margin in the mid-40s\" Source: Company filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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While disappointed in CTC’s gross profit margin contraction of 120bps, it does not appear any consideration was given to the fact that without the acquisition of Helly Hansen, CTC’s margin would have been significantly worse.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.453+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a643b87a-307c-4c40-b050-687ddc639a27", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.73, "x": 0.23, "y": 0.64 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "The focal point of the Q2 results was weak Retail EBITDA. Excluding one-time costs and a tax benefit, $398MM was short of our $430 MM estimate, however this figure still includes $29MM of other non-recurring gains. SG&A was well-controlled, but GM% was down 120 bps, primarily at CTR. -50 bps was driven by a negative swing in dealer profit sharing and another ~50 bps from poor sales mix (less high-margin seasonal goods given unfavorable weather). All this to say - the quarter was weak but does not lead us to believe the Retail business is weakening. And if an increased focus on opex efficiency can delivery comparable gains to the past GM% focus (not withstanding recent noise), re-accelerated earnings growth is within reach.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.453+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "054782ea-3de0-437c-85db-8a772c7851b9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.73, "x": 0.23, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Underlying operating performance at Retail was down y/y. CTC did drive positive SSS across banners in Q2. EBITDA (est. ex-IFRS 16) of $400.6M rose 1.7% y/y reflecting 13.1% growth in CTFS, while Retail EBITDA fell y/y to $230M on lower Retail GM. Retail GM declined 120 bp, with CTR down 100bp, reflecting a lower true-up benefit related to margin sharing and negative shipment mix. Consolidated revenue rose 5.9% (5.4% ex-fuel) reflecting HH, strong receivables growth and the 3.3% uplift in retail sales. Retail SG&A rose 10.7% primarily due to inclusion of HH.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.453+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6d35bba8-9871-4685-87cb-5c8310a4c24d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Retail GM declined 120 bp, with CTR down 100bp, reflecting a lower true-up benefit related to margin sharing and negative shipment mix.\" — Patricia Baker, Scotiabank, August 8, 2018; \"GM% was down 120 bps, primarily at CTR. -50 bps was driven by a negative swing in dealer profit sharing and another ~50 bps from poor sales mix\" — Mark Petrie, CIBC, August 8, 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a1-66ad7e29aa77", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.18, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Equity research reports", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.453+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8cf01d85-1dc8-487b-8272-b3dc8f7c3d0b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Sell-Side Did Not Address The Effect Of Helly Hansen On Gross Margin", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.453+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "edb3be20-025b-4c8f-a935-a6b01f92a203", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "eaaecc99-3d60-42e2-b2d8-65b682ee0495", "evidence": "Contrasts analyst quotes with the author's thesis to expose an oversight.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.453+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 45, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 46, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a quote from management to contrast with the analyst's interpretation of the financial data.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 86, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 1434, "nDataPoints": 28, "notes": "Uses a quote from management to contrast with the analyst's interpretation of the financial data.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box", "quote_block", "headshot" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:16.387+00", "seconds": 3.605, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68/46", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68#slide-46", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.33, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "The strong correlation and recent spike of both Helly Hansen Canada Revenue and CTC's Intersegment Revenue suggests Canadian Tire is pushing inventory to CTC retail stores in order to show strong growth in its struggling Helly Hansen brand", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:16.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c54d17df-c69e-41b5-be68-5382b089e62f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Y-o-Y Growth: 0.04%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a1-353e6c8c31fd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Helly Hansen (HH) is underperforming since the acquisition. Based on CTC's filings, HH's revenue growth for the first half of 2019 has been flat year-over-year. Despite strong reported growth for the third quarter, we believe this is a result of selling inventory to CTC owned stores due to the strong correlation of HH Canada Revenue and CTC's Intersegment Revenue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:16.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b4209230-12e8-4744-acbb-2d7d01122bd7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Helly Hansen's Canadian business grew at a remarkable 60% versus last year. Now this was our plan all along. Capitalizing on opportunities at SportChek and Mark's, as they built their inventory positions for key following winter seasons and introduce fantastic new displays and merchandise.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:16.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4ea883a1-464e-466a-adb5-91bf0702c0b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Helly Hansen's Canadian business grew at a remarkable 60% versus last year. Now this was our plan all along. Capitalizing on opportunities at SportChek and Mark's, as they built their inventory positions for key following winter seasons and introduce fantastic new displays and merchandise.\" — Allan MacDonald, EVP, Retail, Q3 2019 Call, November 7, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a1-3282b6f9363a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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experienced strong sales over the past 3 months as inventory was filled at retail stores. We believe, this will result in weaker sales next quarter", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.926+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "79c177b1-466c-4562-b460-a73192521ecf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Canadian Tire’s management continues to talk about the strength of Helly Hansen’s business. Why didn’t CTC provide investors with a similar warning?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.926+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f72a36dd-2fc7-481f-a9bd-2035779fa3a6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Why didn't CTC provide investors with a similar warning?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-8c0936306dd3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Canada Goose warned investors of a weak quarter ahead due to sales being pulled forward into the past quarter. This sounds very similar to Helly Hansen’s strong Q3. However, while Canada Goose warned that the pull forward will result in a weaker quarter ahead, Canadian Tire continued to talk up the strength of its recently acquired brand.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:15.926+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ecf60441-b2c4-4a06-ab66-27c39db29106", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "quote", "text": 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"status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:16.035+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9bce23c5-b0f3-4007-8e96-328578b14468", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Probably the best example of this playbook in action is Helly Hansen in Canada, our biggest project to date...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", 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So far, we're on track with our plans for bringing Helly Hansen to life across Canada, with expanded assortments online and in stores, and it's working. Helly Hansen sales in Canada year-to-date June were $39 million, up 63 percent in Q2 alone. I'm very proud of the partnership with the Helly Hansen team, and together we've strengthened the Canadian Tire marketplace. 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CTC reports its on track for two out of three of the targets but we believe this is optimistic.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:20.538+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b0e0338f-da5b-42eb-a301-33324c2f77fd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "No major changes to the Company's financial leverage and capital allocation approach — Q3 2017 Earnings Call 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Dealers purchase inventory and rent the real estate from Canadian Tire. A dealer must invest a minimum of C$125k into the store, with the remainder financed and guaranteed by Canadian Tire. We estimate total start-up cost of $3 million. 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The slowdown in CTC's ability to move inventory to its dealers is a sign of weakness in its retail channel.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "056e5a2e-0ad5-4312-841d-690d8f50c9fb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "\"Stack it high and watch it fly\" – Canadian Tire Dealer, when asked about high levels of inventory", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "075ad884-27a2-4176-bb82-204f350f6f47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Based on our research, Dealers are at Canadian Tire's mercy. CTC has complete control of product pricing and limits the amount of equity Dealers are able to pull out of their business.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "57544d25-d998-4786-8d27-6498fe81cc7d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Organic CTC Retail Revenue Growth: 4.3%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a1-ff08a9f2bcfa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We observe CTC retail revenue growth has outpaced point of sale (POS) retail sales growth through dealer channels. Based on the gap, we believe Canadian Tire Dealers are unable to quickly turnover inventory to end market customers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bb0d6a3d-505c-4af0-aa48-52ec5d2897d7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.21, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"We had strong revenue performance in the quarter and while we were left with some excess inventory versus last year, the vast majority of that had been shipped to dealers in Q3.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e2c35ff1-6027-43bf-a3e1-daca0eb7b515", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Stack it high and watch it fly\" — Canadian Tire Dealer. \"We had strong revenue performance in the quarter and while we were left with some excess inventory versus last year, the vast majority of that has been shipped to dealers in Q3.\" — Allan Angus MacDonald, EVP of Retail, Q2 2019 Call, August 8, 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a1-f81348dd3d94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) Revenue reported for Canadian Tire, SportChek, Mark's, Petroleum, and Helly Hansen includes inter-segment revenue. (2) Retail sales refers to the Point of Sale (\"POS\") value of all goods and services sold to retail customers.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bed68e5d-959d-4bc6-9849-d9879115aa90", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Evidence Of Rising Inventory Levels In Dealer Channels", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:19.686+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", 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"/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68#slide-59", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "A classic sign of potential accounting shenanigans is when accounts receivable are growing faster than reported sales.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-45c46580d7c5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Y-o-Y Growth: 37.0%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-4d52befa3fcb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A classic sign of potential accounting shenanigans is when accounts receivable are growing faster than reported sales. It is often cited as a top red flag to predict a fraud or accounting scandals.(1,2) This phenomenon may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices at best, a change in credit terms to customers, or at worst foul play such as channel stuffing. Over the past 18 months, we observe CTC's Y-o-Y receivables growth significantly outpaced its retail revenue growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:18.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5cbc1654-ce46-47de-b4ae-896b31a888e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"How to Predict the Next Fiasco In Accounting and Bail Early\" — Wall St Journal, Jan 2002", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-4ac1c066c9fb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company financials, Spruce Point analysis. 1) How to Predict the Next Fiasco In Accounting and Bail Early, Wall St Journal, Jan 2002. 2) How To Detect And Prevent Financial Statement Fraud, ACFE - Association of Certified Fraud Examiners", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:18.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ba27a3d-ebeb-4e38-b00b-9a2b343e97ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Obvious Signs of Financial Strain", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:18.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", 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"019de52d-0a06-73f8-8813-fe022fab1de2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "analyze_data", "functionCanon": { "name": "Analyze data", "slug": "analyze_data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1590-7413-8c82-cc218cff40b4", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 53, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 815, "nDataPoints": 182, "notes": "Red boxes highlight specific cells in the DIO and DPO rows for Q1-Q3 2019.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:18.145+00", "seconds": 3.032, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68/60", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68#slide-60", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe the combination of lower dealer sales and the slowing of inventory turnover at CTC are clear signs of financial strains emerging in Canadian Tire’s retail business.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-67b2ee0899c2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Days Inventory Outstanding: 112", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-6b8fe40e67af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe the combination of lower dealer sales and the slowing of inventory turnover at CTC are clear signs of financial strains emerging in Canadian Tire's retail business. We observe a Y-o-Y spike in days inventory outstanding for the first three quarters 2019 and believe this is a result of unsold inventory building up in Dealer's stores. 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This is further evidence of weakness in CTC's retail business and another sign of strain on cash flow.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-a606844f7c7a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Cash Conversion Cycle", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:17.738+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "29a8b503-ab5e-4374-a8ab-2c9a229ff6fa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Cash Conversion Cycle: 32", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a2-aa66b1f5d4fa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "CTC's cash conversion cycle (defined as DSO + DIO – DPO) has jumped in the first three quarters of 2019 on both a Y-o-Y and an absolute basis. 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decline in the case CT Bank is downgraded to junk status.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a3-7ae0bac584e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Wall Street Journal article snippet regarding Home 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Yet, CTC has continued to buyback shares while its leverage remains above the level required to prevent a credit downgrade", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a3-dba7575da4a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Decrease in Capital Stock", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.424+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "692a38cb-9a40-4586-b790-6afc5ed43e55", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.56, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Poor Allocation of Capital: C$28m of Value Destroyed Since 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Waterfall chart", "slug": "waterfall", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-002e-733e-b5cf-dd3beb6692cc", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "waterfall", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.424+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eecf913c-7ab4-4203-b217-aa48272066ba", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.86 }, "kind": "framework", "text": "Management has stated its investment grade rating is a top priority and above capital return. Yet, CTC has continued to buyback shares while its leverage remains above the level required to prevent a credit downgrade", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Framework", "slug": "framework", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa18-77c6-b10a-ccb8277ac0fa", "version": 1, "description": "Named conceptual framework instance." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Framework instance", "slug": "instance", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05a2-72af-be0b-7edc60708a03", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "instance", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.424+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f1389f04-46bb-40e9-bf67-d0bd84f9a27a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Value Destroyed: C$28m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a3-e178ca54a3bf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Management has not followed its own capital allocation objectives by repurchasing shares instead of using cash to reduce leverage. We believe CTC will struggle to maintain its current credit rating if it continues to execute its announced C$350m share repurchase program. Since 2018, CTC has been a poor allocator of capital by destroying C$21m of value through buybacks. Over the past two quarters, while CTC was at 2-year lows, CTC essentially stopped its repurchase program, potentially to preserve cash.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.424+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "218aad21-6e75-4de6-8ab2-b8d6e3fb7a8b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.53, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.335 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I've only come up with five meaningful ways we can use our cash. First, we can invest in our current businesses. Second, we can use our cash to pay down debt and we have. However, we intend to maintain our investment grade credit rating...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.424+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4ee7d198-f03d-4ddc-8a2a-5ee8a987c5e3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"I've only come up with five meaningful ways we can use our cash. First, we can invest in our current businesses. Second, we can use our cash to pay down debt and we have. However, we intend to maintain our investment grade credit rating, which we're already good shape on, and our debt is in great shape as well.\" — Stephen Wetmore, CEO, 2014 Investor Day", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a3-df7c6eeb7413", "parentComponentId": null }, { 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"nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "Uses a 'contrast-pairs' framework to juxtapose analyst optimism against activist skepticism.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "seconds": 7.548, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68/71", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68#slide-71", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-d4565c313b68.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We view the reduction in REIT ownership as a highly negative sign", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout 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"name": "Framework instance", "slug": "instance", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05a2-72af-be0b-7edc60708a03", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "instance", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "642968c5-3412-41bc-aa2f-a959c237a8c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe CTC has been divesting its stake in CT REIT due to increased pressure on its balance sheet and high debt load. In September 2019 CTC announced another sale of CT REIT shares. While the credit rating agencies are aware of CTC's current leverage issue, equity analysts have overlooked the problem. TD Securities released a note saying the announcement had no impact on its financial performance and rated the transaction as slightly positive. We believe selling shares, at the expense of EPS, is a negative sign and shows that CTC is in need of capital to delever.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a303c5af-4b0f-4035-a86a-9eeaf48bd17d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We believe that this deal illustrates CTC's tremendous financial flexibility, and provides a capital cushion to evaluate additional growth verticals, support its investment-grade status, and potentially return additional capital to shareholders. — Brian Morrison, TD Securities", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a3-96395c2bed23", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Equity research reports", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1e9e277d-7c03-432e-8eaa-519700d3f6e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.58, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "table", "text": "CT REIT Q4 2018 MD&A Risk Section: Significant Ownership by CTC. CTC holds the majority interest in the REIT. In situations where the interests of CTC and the REIT are in conflict, CTC may utilize its ownership interest in, and contractual rights with the REIT...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f1fa8c3-8134-48dc-98c6-cef3ed0678f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Company Press Release (September 10, 2019) Canadian Tire 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"Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "91be4c69-ba6d-4a3f-ab12-466c02128002", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "e6fee560-e18b-4c5e-8733-5eb379fb4dd4", "evidence": "Juxtaposition of analyst opinion vs activist opinion", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.814+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, 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0.15, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "After not selling any properties in 2017, CTC divested property in 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:20.664+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "936cb4bd-a634-4185-ac3c-e1fe0ee3b1dc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "During the first 6 months of 2019, CTC has already outpaced the entire year of 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:20.664+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f3920893-35e0-43ec-8b6a-0fe06c9d4cb4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "It appears CTC is more inclined to sell properties than it was in the past. In 2018 and during the first half of 2019, CTC drastically increased the value of sales. This is concerning given that CTC’s debt load has grown substantially over this time. 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null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:24.174+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8149868a-c8ea-4d9d-8a5c-852cbcb56ac4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"They have a fairly significant credit card portfolio, which – if I’m right about the credit in the Canadian banks – eventually those problems will show up in Canadian Tire’s credit card business.\" – Steve Eisman. \"As you know, Canadian Tire is a very significant retailer in Canada and I think the last two quarters they’ve had some real margin pressure... I think the reason for the margin pressure is they’re feeling the heat from Amazon.\" – Steve Eisman. \"It would seem to me with all the uncertainty out there, both in Canada and the world, this would be the last time in the world you should grow your commercial loan books double digits, but that’s what the banks are doing.\" – Steve Eisman. \"I find it puzzling and unexplainable.\" – Steve Eisman.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:52:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a4-372daf10ab68", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Steve Eisman BNN Bloomberg Interview, Neuberger Berman Bio", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Over the past year, the number of accounts have been flat while the number of new accounts has declined. A majority of the growth over the past 7 quarters has come from higher risk lending", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.77+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "35bea8b9-da9f-4203-9e9c-1cccc32a70ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our research shows Dealers are \"highly incentivize to encourage customers to use Canadian Tire Credit Cards\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.77+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "557396f3-a879-40ab-ba93-196c1990caaa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "A majority of the growth over the past 7 quarters has come from higher risk lending", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:53:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a4-4966aa5ab171", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Dual-axis chart showing New Accounts with Balance (LTM and Past 2 Years) vs Average Number of Accounts with Balance", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Grouped bar chart", "slug": "bar-grouped", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff3b-751e-a8ff-f21ff11097b1", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-grouped", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.77+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cbd614e9-89ac-43d3-8ef1-44cc9d5868a1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Number of Accounts with Balance", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:53:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a4-50e3fc5f14e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Canadian Tire has made an effort to grow the size of its lending portfolio. CTC's recent rebranding of its rewards program, \"Triangle Rewards,\" was part of a broad push to increase the number of store cards issued. The current magnitude of credit dwarfs prior time periods including leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. As the number of cards have increased, new financial disclosures show growth in higher risk assets. We believe Canadian Tire has loosened its lending criteria to achieve this growth and fuel instore retail sales. Especially at the current point in the credit cycle, this is an extremely risky practice.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.77+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fbac61bb-cd43-48ac-87c7-f7a271aebe29", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Our research shows Dealers are \"highly incentivize to encourage customers to use Canadian Tire Credit Cards\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:53:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a4-4d0a3df375fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company Financial Reports, Company Quarterly Credit Card Portfolio Reports", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The typical customer uses a credit card as a source of financing to make a purchase rather than as an easy payment method. Risky customer profiles combined with the continuous growth and evolution of the credit portfolio, leave CTC in a vulnerable position at this stage of the credit cycle. If investors worry about the credit profiles of traditional Canadian banks, they should fear the level of risk in Canadian Tire Bank's credit card portfolio.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "92d7c67b-105f-4c28-b5b3-785c00216196", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We believe CTB's class of credit card customer is higher risk than peers and during an economic stress, the bank will experience higher than-peer credit losses... This reflects its chosen market niche of focusing on customers who primarily use a credit card as a source of financing (revolving balances), rather than payment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4868b0ea-5992-4d7f-a88a-a7fc6fc9c13b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.375 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We view CTB's asset quality to be of a higher risk than its peer group...CTB's credit card franchise is more narrowly linked to the Canadian Tire brand; supporting its Triangle Rewards loyalty program.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.417+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bde2d384-587f-48b7-9147-d1b2a11b19e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "CTFS continues to expand its financial services business... 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But You Should Be", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Framework", "slug": "framework", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa18-77c6-b10a-ccb8277ac0fa", "version": 1, "description": "Named conceptual framework instance." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Framework instance", "slug": "instance", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05a2-72af-be0b-7edc60708a03", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "instance", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:22.21+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "625e5571-70b1-4fcf-85c1-e24e46019bb0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Y-o-Y growth in high and moderate risk assets: 68%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:53:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a4-f2c439d2a15c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Investors should be concerned by management's comments on the bank business and its push to grow accounts. The CEO of Canadian Tire Bank says he is not concerned about the level of risk in the portfolio despite attracting new customers and the continuous growth of \"high risk\" and \"moderate risk\" assets. 68% of Y-o-Y growth has been in high and moderate risk categories.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:22.21+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d07e9aa2-f6a2-48ac-8492-e4d33a7c7df7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.22, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Great, then as a follow-up, your credit card past due rates increased a little bit, by about 20 basis points sequentially from Q4. Does that concern you, or is that just noise?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:22.21+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "59ffe862-0bf6-4903-a045-12e59c771263", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.22, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "No, I think—well, obviously we keep a really close eye on all of our credit risk metrics. 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We believe this is a result of the growth in loans categorized in CTC's higher risk buckets. This should be a red flag for investors as CTC's rapid growth has been achieved through increased risk. CTC provides limited disclosure on the credit quality of its portfolio. 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Using a “seasoned” (loans over 1 year old) charge-off rate allows for consistency, accounts for the 180 days required for a loan to be delinquent, and factors in no defaults within the first year (1). Canadian Tire has been experiencing an increase in losses on its “seasoned” loans.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.532+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cdb0ca44-f141-4966-a20e-6c52dec34794", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"what you will see is anytime there is a new vintage of cards out there, the first year, there are no losses. And then what happens is it spikes up to 10% or 12%. And then it cleans out the junk. And it comes back down to your 6.5%. 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Source: Company Financial Reports", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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However, during the period, CTC's delinquencies have remained flat. The gap between CTC and Canadian Banks shows a relative weakness in CTC Credit Card Portfolio", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "edd0d26a-1578-415d-82c8-eb16ba1357d9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "90+ Day Credit Card Delinquencies", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:21.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1517504c-0c76-4822-85af-ecdf6eb461f1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "90+ day credit card delinquency rate", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:53:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a4-b987942d832f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While it is clear that Canadian Tire has riskier assets due to the nature of its credit card business and profile of its card users, the relative change in Canadian Tire's delinquency rate has performed worse than peers over the past 2 years. 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search results for \"Material Contracts\" filled by CTC on Sedar. Given Canadian Tire's dependence on leverage to fuel its business model, how are its credit agreements not \"Material\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:25.597+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1d9cbed4-7dd7-4108-a43f-90f765e4bfe8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.63, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "CT REIT states they do not disclosure its Bank Credit Agreement despite 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Ms. Sabia was a member of the audit committee during the end of the period where the fraudulent actions took place.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:25.504+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "66ccf766-d5a1-4637-9c66-a5b69343abb8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The Commission's complaint alleges that from approximately 1999 through 2003, Black, Radler and Hollinger Inc. engaged in a fraudulent and deceptive scheme to divert cash and assets from Hollinger International, Inc., a U. S. public company and a subsidiary of Hollinger, Inc., and concealed their self-dealing from Hollinger International's public shareholders. — SEC Press Release (November 15, 2004)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:53:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee3b-7248-a1a6-28517b5d0bca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company filings, SEC.gov, Sedar.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This is a bearish signal to the market. In February, CTC's current CFO announced his plans to leave at the end of the year and CTC has yet to announce a replacement.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:25.04+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3954273a-a35d-4c87-b26b-30485a9fdc04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1) Scotiabank owns 20% of Canadian Tire Bank. Source: Company website, LinkedIn", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:38:25.04+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a6012c24-3674-4e31-b0df-fd20b2620068", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Executive, Title, Date of Departure, Date Hired, Reason / Note. Timothy Price, Director, October 4, 2018, 2007, Retired from the Board. 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