{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "slug": "c4de14509091", "title": "MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)", "subtitle": "Ben Axler · 2017-01", "author": "Ben Axler", "date": "2017-01-12 00:00:00", "pageCount": 53, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "MGP Ingredients, Inc.", "targetTicker": "MGPI", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "slug": "c4de14509091", "title": "MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)", "rawTitle": "64f9d5dc2c6e2f589bf9d687 mgpi short thesis 1 12 2017", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "authorDisplay": "Ben Axler", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2017-01-64f9d5dc2c6e2f589bf9d687_mgpi_short_thesis_1-12-2017.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2017-01-12 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2017-01-12 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 20:42:43+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 53, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "MGP Ingredients, Inc.", "targetTicker": "MGPI", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/c4de14509091", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 166.71570992469788 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 53, "pagesIndexed": 53, "pagesWithImages": 53, "pagesWithMetadata": 53, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 321, "chartCount": 22, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 16, "documentToolMatches": 4, "frameworkMatches": 39, "arcMatches": 0, "beatMatches": 0, "loopMatches": 0, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [], "beats": [], "loops": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "c834e3a0-7c32-4ea6-b7d7-9f2741a7fce9", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "36d82d1d-bcfa-4e9f-9ed4-470f928cb106", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "78db8533-1a1d-448b-adb8-5d9f39ddcf05", "evidence": "Seaberg family (controlling shareholders)", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "cec522e7-a261-4448-83b7-9f1be7a4f6b0", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. Build it deliberately.", "familyLabel": "slide-recipe", "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "designer", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "designer" ], "matchId": "dbc86e7f-6049-48b5-bac7-d3c91a401bac", "evidence": "MGP Ingredients, Inc. | Nasdaq: MGPI | INVESTMENT RESEARCH REPORT", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.909597+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "e8e1bbaa-2296-4044-a3e5-84295bf9dc85", "evidence": "Executive Summary", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.049867+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "AIDA Model", "slug": "aida-model", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-86fc-773c-813f-d416714b8413", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Attention, Interest, Desire, Action - classic persuasion sequence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "aae1c568-144c-4b5a-afa1-edb5d305ceb7", "evidence": "The slide presents a clear problem (MGPI's strong sell case), agitation (various risks and concerns), and conclusion (Spruce Point's negative view).", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.789753+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solve (PAS)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solve-pas", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-869f-7564-8d42-de54ed29ab90", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Identify problem, agitate the pain, present the solution", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "4838e05b-9e2f-4325-956d-a2262ca3efbf", "evidence": "The slide presents a problem (MGPI's financials and business model), agitates it (by highlighting various risks), but does not explicitly offer a solution.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.823695+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "7d5c5ac5-c37e-4af0-a338-07a650c29322", "evidence": "The slide cites specific data and analyst estimates to support its claims.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.5, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.935001+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Thesis archetype", "slug": "thesis-archetype", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b0b-7428-9b26-f171d1e753fb", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A canonical investment / activist thesis shape (breakup, fraud, governance).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "28271a80-1749-4b6e-a6ee-61e6b7c92b51", "evidence": "The slide presents a clear thesis (60-70% downside risk) and supports it with various arguments.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.899992+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "optional", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Before-After-Bridge", "slug": "before-after-bridge", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-8604-7188-883f-42370288ad05", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Narrative structure: Paint the before, show the after, explain the bridge", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "4209e382-8281-45e2-90b7-3fa571f52cf7", "evidence": "The slide presents a problem and then offers a solution, 'Demand Creates New Supply'.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:31.022469+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "AIDA Model", "slug": "aida-model", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-86fc-773c-813f-d416714b8413", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Attention, Interest, Desire, Action - classic persuasion sequence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "402af609-b3e0-4d25-bb9a-2f40593af075", "evidence": "The slide presents an attention-grabbing headline, followed by a problem agitation, and then a call to action, 'Anything that reduces the aging time to bring new whiskey to market is bearish for supply.'", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:31.103107+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 21, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Analytical method", "slug": "analytical-method", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "b42c4911-7946-49b5-951c-5f3d23f4e2bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Diagnostic / structuring methods (5-whys, fishbone, issue tree, hypothesis-driven).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "b9ebc472-0c4a-496f-b176-aa0bf0cc6719", "evidence": "The slide uses a case study to analyze the vodka market and draw insights for the whiskey market.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:31.179425+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "fd5d5711-6306-4e4a-b7b7-cf6e17a3a0df", "evidence": "This slide presents a critical view of MGPI's whiskey business, portraying it as a long-shot to succeed.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.078243+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 32, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Valuation: Precedent transactions", "slug": "precedent-transactions", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-22b0-70fc-b5b7-8d6ee69c15dd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9e2b-7165-a5f9-f94a9758ce38", "description": "You apply multiples derived from comparable historical M&A transactions", "familyLabel": "valuation-move", "categoryName": "Analysis", "categorySlug": "analysis" }, "agent": "architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "architect" ], "matchId": "1fa8ef01-b6d0-479d-bec9-7e96891e62d9", "evidence": "The slide provides a table of failed liquor brands with celebrity backers, serving as precedent transactions.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.155371+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. Build it deliberately.", "familyLabel": "slide-recipe", "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "designer", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "designer" ], "matchId": "315deaa2-7e79-428d-b291-93416c3bdd45", "evidence": "This slide serves as a cover page with a title and a logo, setting the stage for the presentation.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.260312+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 35, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "c70757c8-c87e-4dea-ba30-38a695902ecd", "evidence": "Numbered list of key investment thesis points.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "list-presentation" }, { "matchId": "65eef278-2cf6-42a2-b60c-3eeb4c52be7a", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames accounting changes as a 'warning' and 'signal' of strain, typical of activist short-selling fraud exposure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "7691f064-6d04-4d09-8f26-681423a5e38f", "evidence": "The slide explicitly highlights accounting inconsistencies and related-party transaction concerns to argue for a massive valuation correction.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "44299f2a-47a0-4492-bc4a-2e384142b8e2", "evidence": "Comparison of Street vs Spruce Point adjusted valuation multiples", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "valuation-bridge" }, { "matchId": "c191d34d-bdd6-47d3-b326-06eb4549ece4", "evidence": "The slide links negative corporate events and insider selling to stock price movements to suggest artificial inflation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "20dcbb44-a3c7-4ac2-a9c8-a7344baa1bc8", "evidence": "Side-by-side comparison of bull vs bear arguments", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" }, { "matchId": "83ac9293-6354-4a28-8be9-fe8388913f57", "evidence": "Directly juxtaposes external analyst quotes against the activist's counter-arguments.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.246+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" }, { "matchId": "60cedc22-f395-43b9-9164-a2d489b8dcc5", "evidence": "Side-by-side layout comparing opposing viewpoints.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" }, { "matchId": "fd5cb85e-51e8-45a0-86e0-5d641ac86599", "evidence": "The slide systematically evaluates business drivers to diagnose the company's future earnings health.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "frameworkName": "diagnostic-test" }, { "matchId": "0727f653-5dba-4db4-b7a6-218ca16b7527", "evidence": "Frames the company's assets as 'old and prone to operational disasters' to build a negative case.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 17, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" }, { "matchId": "d1946ed7-d07a-45f2-b5e3-415efb77d154", "evidence": "The slide frames the company as a 'villain' with a history of disasters to justify a negative investment thesis.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 18, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" }, { "matchId": "a19c3b3e-6989-4053-85a2-3b6a171cfefd", "evidence": "The slide explicitly addresses a potential counter-argument (shortage) and provides evidence of market correction.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" }, { "matchId": "6a7dd8e1-e5a0-4b4e-a833-40ec33048973", "evidence": "Argues that new technology (rapid aging) is disrupting a traditional industry (whiskey) and is bearish for incumbents.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 21, "frameworkName": "disruptive-innovation" }, { "matchId": "5b939f82-ac8d-484c-8b22-c5056c1f1085", "evidence": "Uses the vodka market as an analogy for the potential future of the whiskey market.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "frameworkName": "argument-from-analogy" }, { "matchId": "09a3bd4f-4499-42b9-afa0-4656d56b6e4d", "evidence": "Exposing a contradiction between company 10-K risk disclosures and internal credit agreement definitions.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 23, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "d1ecdbf2-dd08-478f-8f15-42672085730b", "evidence": "The slide anticipates a counter-argument about MGPI's growth by showing customer churn risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.647+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 24, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" }, { "matchId": "2506d458-8b80-4b84-8bf4-36e447960663", "evidence": "The slide presents a structured list of competitor actions to support a thesis.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.585+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 25, "frameworkName": "list-presentation" }, { "matchId": "a25fee3d-07a2-4f4f-bb86-a7041d52d6b8", "evidence": "Comparison of 2015 and 2016 investor slides to show decline.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 26, "frameworkName": "before-after-framing" }, { "matchId": "78f0f274-a468-4769-8312-f24bd68cd287", "evidence": "Using visual evidence to contradict company narrative regarding production sources.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 27, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "00912816-2fcb-480c-8b71-43eecd415f99", "evidence": "The slide categorizes risks by impact level (Very High, High, Medium) and provides specific business context for each.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 28, "frameworkName": "risk-assessment-matrix" }, { "matchId": "0d8eb0f5-00e5-4f2e-9008-5e7dfefddf26", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames company claims as 'baiting' and highlights 'potential' as a deceptive qualifier.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 29, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "ef68c1cf-a954-459a-abcb-60f7e87920e9", "evidence": "Exposing a contradiction in asset valuation to undermine a company's narrative.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 30, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "33866dfa-ed13-4dbd-8787-0c6930445f2e", "evidence": "Systematic breakdown of company claims vs. market reality", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 32, "frameworkName": "villain_critique" }, { "matchId": "66073407-86fe-4cd1-ab06-32e3f7310c0e", "evidence": "Uses historical failures to counter the assumption that celebrity backing ensures success.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" }, { "matchId": "56dc5778-4851-493e-9282-ca5d5c7ca13a", "evidence": "Links weak FCF to debt dependency and expansion risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 36, "frameworkName": "causal-chain" }, { "matchId": "9b62bc34-1e43-47c7-9f8d-f5490b3c9e0d", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames a 'warning' against 'excessive optimism' to expose a contradiction in market perception.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 37, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "87d27e39-8b00-44c6-af2f-487a3ecfb936", "evidence": "Using operational metrics to contradict management growth narrative", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 38, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "714fef5a-d8df-4bc5-82ed-bfc5285cb623", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies inconsistencies in financial reporting to suggest revenue overstatement.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 39, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "86f5d79a-ac24-4065-a6d8-5d2e6dd693c2", "evidence": "The slide explicitly contrasts two metrics (inventory turnover vs gross margins) to expose a contradiction.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 40, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" }, { "matchId": "da978cca-d21b-4f54-8424-9b2ab6e68d80", "evidence": "The slide explicitly contrasts the company's stated accounting policy with the author's interpretation of 'current asset' definitions.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 41, "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction" }, { "matchId": "01513460-8c76-4d1a-ac0a-e5b75f27c105", "evidence": "Highlighting inconsistencies between public relations claims and formal SEC filings to suggest potential financial manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 42, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "c9fc10be-b495-495e-b9dd-29802e69e2e7", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies discrepancies in financial reporting to suggest potential accounting manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 43, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "35ee7f25-8e14-4b54-9da1-2a05372a7d1b", "evidence": "Direct comparison of conflicting financial disclosures to suggest accounting irregularities.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 44, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "7cbfa32e-fd13-4094-861d-72623a172a94", "evidence": "The slide explicitly links unexplained accounting restatements to potential covenant violations and misstated financials.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 45, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "e9cdb72f-83b6-441e-85d0-95d4ce7022fe", "evidence": "Highlighting management's downplaying of regulatory audit risks and potential material liabilities.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.98+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 47, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "d1a391f9-9838-48ad-ab3a-a429137caea7", "evidence": "Direct comparison of MGPI against two distinct peer groups to highlight valuation discrepancy.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 49, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" }, { "matchId": "d106504a-3b8e-4c30-b3e2-e6300a3fb0da", "evidence": "The slide explicitly segments peers into two groups to compare MGPI's valuation metrics.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 50, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" }, { "matchId": "d3255d6e-3f24-4d83-b3ad-c81c4c71053e", "evidence": "Compares MGPI valuation metrics against Castle Brands to highlight overvaluation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 51, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" }, { "matchId": "8618f0c4-53e5-480d-ba41-bf9869418b92", "evidence": "The slide uses a series of adjustments to cash, debt, and multiples to arrive at a target price.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 53, "frameworkName": "valuation_bridge" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Memorable custom 3D-rendered cover (skull-and-crossbones barrels, broken bottle, dead rat, 'Intoxicated By The Moonshine'). Classic Spruce Point format: 'Quick Highlights' summary of 11 reasons on p5, Bloomberg-style stock-chart timeline with insider-selling annotations on p11, dual peer-comp tables (commodity vs aspirational beverage) on p49-50, and explicit downside math with Street-vs-Spruce-Point tables on p53. Author inferred as Ben Axler (Spruce Point founder/sole principal) though cover credits only the firm.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Grew from $11.1m (2013) to $45.0m (9/30/16)", "metric": "Whiskey inventory" }, { "detail": "Fell from 8.6x to 3.7x over same period", "metric": "Inventory turnover" }, { "detail": "Expanded from 6.4% to 18.1% (2013 to LTM 9/30/16)", "metric": "Gross margin" }, { "detail": "Swung from -$0.29 (2013) to +$1.50 (LTM 9/30/16)", "metric": "EPS" }, { "detail": "14.5x vs commodity-ingredient peer median 9.5x", "metric": "EV / 2017E EBITDA" }, { "detail": "5.7x vs commodity peers 2.1x", "metric": "Price / Book" }, { "detail": "46% drawn; zero cash on balance sheet", "metric": "Credit facility utilization" }, { "detail": "At least 8% of revenues at risk from Diageo's Kentucky distillery coming online 2017", "metric": "Diageo customer concentration" }, { "detail": "Company disclosure shifted from 65% to 35% share", "metric": "Gin market share" }, { "detail": "~28% of common and 84% of preferred (board control); entered 10b5-1 sale program Dec 2016", "metric": "Seaberg family ownership" }, { "detail": "Shares up 1,000% since 2014", "metric": "Stock appreciation" } ], "closingAsk": "Short MGPI and expect shares to re-rate 60-70% lower to $16-$21 as the whiskey transformation fails and Diageo's in-house distillery removes a material customer.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:42:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 166.71571, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Spruce Point models 2017 adjusted EPS of $1.12-$1.28 at a 14-16x P/E and 8-9x on $39-$43m EBITDA, implying a $16-$21 target price and 60-70% downside from $47.20.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Diageo's new Kentucky distillery threatens 8%+ of MGPI revenue as largest whiskey customer goes in-house", "Whiskey inventory ballooned from $11m to $45m while turnover collapsed from 8.6x to 3.7x", "Seaberg family (28% common, 84% preferred, board control) just entered a 10b5-1 stock sale program" ], "scqaSituation": "MGP Ingredients is a Kansas/Indiana commodity alcohol and ingredients producer that the market has repriced as a premium branded whiskey play, driving shares up 1,000% since 2014 to a 14.5x EBITDA multiple.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point argues MGPI's 1,000% run since 2014 rests on a false narrative that a commodity alcohol and ingredients producer can transform into a branded whiskey company. In reality its largest whiskey customer Diageo is completing its own $110m Kentucky distillery, 1,000+ craft distillers are building capacity, whiskey inventory has quadrupled to $45m while turnover has halved, and MGPI is funding long-term warehouses with short-term revolver debt and zero cash. Accounting red flags — a 10-Q disclosure change suggesting material estimate adjustments, a restated ICP joint-venture reconciliation that doesn't tie to partner Seacor, and a quietly-expanded TTB audit — compound the risk. With the controlling Seaberg family starting a 10b5-1 sale program, Spruce Point sees MGPI reverting to 8-10x EBITDA for 60-70% downside to $16-$21 per share.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell/short MGPI shares", "Scrutinize MGPI's accounting disclosures, related-party ICP JV reporting, and freight-revenue restatements", "Re-rate MGPI from a premium beverage multiple (14.5x EBITDA) back to commodity-ingredient levels (8-10x EBITDA)" ], "scqaResolution": "Short MGPI: the branded-spirits transformation will fail, the Diageo contract will shrink or disappear, and the valuation should revert toward commodity-ingredient peers at roughly 8-10x EBITDA and 1x sales.", "thesisOneLiner": "MGPI's whiskey-premiumization rerating is an illusion: Diageo is going in-house, inventory is stranded, and insiders are selling — shares should collapse 60-70% to $16-$21.", "precedentsCited": [ "Seagram's gin market share collapse (65% to 35%) as customer shifted production", "Vodka market saturation (Smirnoff/Absolut vs Kettle One/Grey Goose/Ciroc)", "Celebrity- and billionaire-backed liquor brand failures", "Spruce Point's prior campaigns (Sabre, Caesarstone, AMETEK, Intertain, Greif) with CEO resignations" ], "scqaComplication": "Its biggest whiskey customer Diageo is bringing production in-house in 2017, craft distillers are adding capacity everywhere, inventory is stranded, cash is zero, and accounting disclosures are deteriorating while insiders begin liquidating.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 11, 50, 53 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)", "Ingredion (INGR)", "Tate & Lyle (TATE.LON)", "Darling Ingredients (DAR)", "SunOpta (STKL)", "Diageo (DEO)", "Constellation Brands (STZ)", "Brown-Forman (BF)", "Castle Brands (ROX)", "Seacor (CKH)" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 3 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "The visual metaphor uses skull-and-crossbones on barrels and a dead rat to imply toxicity or danger associated with the company's business.", "function": "front_matter", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/yQrY3kx0ccpErwq-sREaPncZOjo18yoiBl1D6kxjRzU/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9jNGRlMTQ1MDkwOTEvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 18, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 243, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The visual metaphor uses skull-and-crossbones on barrels and a dead rat to imply toxicity or danger associated with the company's business.", "elementsJson": [ "photo" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.97+00", "seconds": 2.853, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.115, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "RECOMMENDATION: Strong Sell", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.97+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "59f61c0c-492b-4296-af48-94f842b457d5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Intoxicated By The Moonshine", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-33f9407488b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 1, "w": 1, "x": 0, "y": 0 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Warehouse scene with barrels marked with skull and crossbones, a broken bottle, and a dead rat.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Illustration", "slug": "illustration", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe76-7772-a5ac-c0b7294d7615", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "illustration", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.97+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9e66a7e-c585-4217-95cc-cf6145abd54e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.115, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Intoxicated By The Moonshine", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.97+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d18f4bfd-4080-4568-a5fa-b83ece17594c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.115, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGP Ingredients, Inc. | Nasdaq: MGPI | INVESTMENT RESEARCH REPORT", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.97+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c272212b-9675-46ac-a438-1cca83c9b3a2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. Build it deliberately.", "familyLabel": "slide-recipe", "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "designer", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "designer" ], "matchId": "dbc86e7f-6049-48b5-bac7-d3c91a401bac", "evidence": "MGP Ingredients, Inc. | Nasdaq: MGPI | INVESTMENT RESEARCH REPORT", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.909597+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "thumbSrc": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/76pT0hL1vddPXQGAV62PpX9XKqS6w3cCn_tcOfAtB-k/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9jNGRlMTQ1MDkwOTEvcDAwMS5wbmc", "imagePathAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/cOPZd97j-EUdyzPVUT22h03wqG0lzycBWb2NZBh7cl8/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9jNGRlMTQ1MDkwOTEvcDAwMS5qcGc", "thumbSrcAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/MxMkO3UsaEvxDQ74-BM1Getra2RC08MraLUzt3Eap2w/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9jNGRlMTQ1MDkwOTEvcDAwMS5qcGc" }, { "page": 2, "type": "setup", "function": "other", "rawType": "disclaimer", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "disclaimer", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0801-727b-b98a-5ed095aeee78", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "other", "functionCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-15e1-75bc-99dc-07732380e2ce", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 7, "componentCount": 2, "textChars": 220, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.51+00", "seconds": 2.351, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/2", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-2", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions. You should assume that as of the publication date of any presentation, report or letter, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC... [full text]", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "375e624f-9a6b-4f18-96d9-4bbf898f92db", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.37, "x": 0.315, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Full Legal Disclaimer", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "07239251-e662-44fb-b454-75d9bde4c04e", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 3, "type": "appendix", "title": "Includes a table of recent CEO resignations following research reports.", "function": "establish_context", "rawType": "other", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "other", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0af5-71ed-83de-d51ae245fc43", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "establish_context", "functionCanon": { "name": "Establish context", "slug": "establish_context", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1314-74e6-9074-d213dc0bdcdf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 58, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1104, "nDataPoints": 25, "notes": "Includes a table of recent CEO resignations following research reports.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "seconds": 3.743, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/3", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-3", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Short-selling involves a high degree of risk, including the risk of infinite loss potential. Please see Full Legal Disclaimer at the front of the presentation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "84cf181c-af8b-4e79-bfd1-2c8ad242e75a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Founded by Ben Axler, a former investment banker with 16 years experience on Wall Street\nRanked the #1 Short-Seller in the world by Sumzero after a comprehensive study of 12,000 analyst recommendations dating back to 2008 (March 2015)\nRanked the #13 Most Influential FinTweeter on Twitter according to Sentieo analysis (Dec 2016)\nTrack record of significant changes at Company level post research activism publication:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c25b187-6598-481a-bf98-d817ab95156a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.075, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Two companies have been charged with fraud and delisted from the Nasdaq to the Pink Sheets\nThree other companies have been forced out of the public markets privatized or acquired\nEight CFOs and Eight CEOs have resigned or been replaced post Spruce Point research initiation", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d000b5f6-6e87-419a-b938-cf08678ae345", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.195 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point Capital is an industry recognized research activist investment firm founded in 2009", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d28e376d-7348-45f3-b9e8-7d853ccaa33d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.105, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Recent CEO Resignations Following Spruce Point Report Initiations", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7745bf06-ad24-46c7-ab40-43d21ff7298a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "About Spruce Point Capital Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a54a06ab-5004-4f89-8f6b-49a21c11896d", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 4, "type": "setup", "function": "front_matter", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 6, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 132, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.704+00", "seconds": 2.475, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/4", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-4", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.45, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Proprietary and Confidential –May Not Be Distributed or Copied Without Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC Consent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.704+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fb388074-c588-4614-a58d-15f7c88c7258", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.388, "w": 0.203, "x": 0.073, "y": 0.306 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.704+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d8a4b719-05ef-4c01-9683-6b69a2223471", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.375, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive Summary", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:50.704+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a70633ba-b6b6-4b61-b1d8-9bfc1bdcafd3", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "e8e1bbaa-2296-4044-a3e5-84295bf9dc85", "evidence": "Executive Summary", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.049867+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 5, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a numbered list format to present a series of negative catalysts and operational concerns.", "function": "summarize", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 31, "componentCount": 4, "textChars": 652, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide uses a numbered list format to present a series of negative catalysts and operational concerns.", "elementsJson": [ "numbered_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.181+00", "seconds": 4.836, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/5", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-5", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point Sees Approximately 60% – 70% Downside + Big Hangover Waiting For Investors Intoxicated By The False Hope of Future Gains.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-e0f99aa96799", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "list", "text": "1. Rapid Whiskey / Bourbon Sales Growth... 2. Diageo Is A Material Whiskey Customer... 3. MGPI Also Appears To Be Quietly Covering Up... 4. A Multitude of Other Contracts... 5. MGPI Has A History of Operational Disasters... 6. MGPI's Foray Into Branded Liquor... 7. MGPI Is Out of Cash... 8. MGPI Quietly Restated 2015 Results... 9. Regulators Are Expanding An Audit Investigation... 10. Follow The Money Carefully... 11. Spruce Point Sees Approximately 60% – 70% Downside...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "058ec52d-1d64-40aa-9480-7b9ef3dc6259", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "EBITDA multiple: 60% - 70%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-e5c4037b8a4f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.275, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Quick Highlights:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "19662d95-5a94-4a6f-96a7-2318353eed94", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "c70757c8-c87e-4dea-ba30-38a695902ecd", "evidence": "Numbered list of key investment thesis points.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "list-presentation" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 6, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a red flag icon and red text to emphasize the 'warning' nature of the accounting changes.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 24, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 477, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a red flag icon and red text to emphasize the 'warning' nature of the accounting changes.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "seconds": 5.868, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/6", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-6", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe the Company is signaling accounting strain and issuing a subtle warning.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-81a188c06d95", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "Key text omitted in 2016 vs Key text added in 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Legend", "slug": "legend", "status": "active", "canonId": "31361933-3d22-4c70-bbad-0801e9fffc0c", "version": 1, "description": "Color/symbol decoder placed adjacent to a chart or diagram." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1ef49842-60da-462c-93c2-57a861214169", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Taking a step back before reading our report, we believe investors should carefully evaluate the unusual changes to MGPI's 2016 10-Q filings it made. We believe the Company is signaling accounting strain and issuing a subtle warning.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7c602cff-fac5-42df-b82a-6dbd23beb5d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison table of 2016 vs 2015 accounting disclosures", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8192857d-02a9-4c20-9493-20219655b001", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Pay Close Attention To MGPI's Recent Accounting Warnings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0df96c4b-4b0f-46a9-8b9f-644272ef4b0b", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "65eef278-2cf6-42a2-b60c-3eeb4c52be7a", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames accounting changes as a 'warning' and 'signal' of strain, typical of activist short-selling fraud exposure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 7, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a two-part structure: the top half frames the 'bull case' and the bottom half frames the 'bear case' (risks).", "function": "frame_problem", "rawType": "thesis_headline", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "thesis_headline", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Thesis headline", "slug": "thesis_headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-073a-70cb-b9f6-772a597bb5af", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "frame_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Frame problem", "slug": "frame_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-13db-753e-ad70-e9b2d0dab398", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 91, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 2106, "nDataPoints": 7, "notes": "The slide uses a two-part structure: the top half frames the 'bull case' and the bottom half frames the 'bear case' (risks).", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "seconds": 4.455, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/7", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-7", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point Believes Investors Should Be Cautioned Not To Extrapolate Recent Earnings Performance. We Believe There Are Numerous Business Risks And Cracks In The Growth Story That Are Not Being Adequately Discounted", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:54+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-a8e711352cc6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "list", "text": "On the surface, the Company's transformation strategy appears wildly successful. Its EPS has risen from a loss of ($0.29) in 2013 to positive earnings of $1.50 per share in the LTM 9/30/16 period.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "14142bc8-dc75-44f7-b1f3-d1808f3b6f51", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The biggest aspect of the \"bull case\" surrounding MGPI is that it is a play on the explosive growth in consumer taste for whiskey and bourbon. Investors fail to realize that MGPI is primarily a white-label producer that sells to other brands.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6509e1c8-f184-4e02-90a7-da8a44d14b37", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI is a simple story to understand. It operates two businesses: an ingredients business run from Kansas and an alcohol distillery in Indiana. Both of these facilities are old assets and prone to substantial operational hazards.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "75a90672-b059-40cf-b3cb-2b3bc219e3f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "list", "text": "There are now over 1,000 craft distillers for whiskey / bourbon in the United States. Just like Diageo, many of these distillers are constructing their own distilleries, which would reduce / eliminate their need to buy from MGPI.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a46858f2-ffe6-40a1-a520-2602dad35b2b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Because investors are so enamored with MGPI's alcohol business, they are not paying attention to other material risks that loom large in 2017 such as: 1) key ingredient patent expiration, 2) collective bargaining agreement, 3) supplier agreements, and 4) added fines / penalties.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d6e3a938-161f-4659-9a86-85ff8c76081c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI's shares have appreciated 1,000% since 2014 as investors have cheered the Company's decision to hire new management, reprioritize its businesses away from commodity ingredients, and focus on \"higher margin\" premium alcohol beverages.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4a64920-ec31-4a3f-9bfb-61b403a37194", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGP Ingredients (\"MGPI\" or \"the Company\") Is A Commodity Ingredient and Alcohol Producer Now Being Spun As A Sexy Transformation Story Into A Premium Producer of Branded Whiskey and Bourbon", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d51b200e-f33b-4f13-a884-de7caf3cff48", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Believes Investors Should Be Cautioned Not To Extrapolate Recent Earnings Performance. We Believe There Are Numerous Business Risks And Cracks In The Growth Story That Are Not Being Adequately Discounted", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fbe2119c-4699-4938-a554-24ba571b4d40", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Believes MGPI Is A \"Strong Sell\" For The Following Reasons:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.248+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b6871f93-4855-44e0-a013-de78a0265545", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 8, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses blue underlined text to indicate hyperlinks to source documents or data.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "key_messages", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "key_messages", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Key messages", "slug": "key_messages", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0712-703f-89f5-bda6688faf3f", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 83, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 1122, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses blue underlined text to indicate hyperlinks to source documents or data.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "seconds": 4.291, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/8", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-8", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI's barreled whiskey inventory is rapidly rising, while sales are declining, and inventory turnover plunges.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-f62d29da9a14", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.66 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Look To Struggles In the Vodka and Gin Market For An Indicator of What Can Happen in Whiskey / Bourbon", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f90ed54-5259-4eb0-8b81-2bb3a0b50056", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI must turn its inventory and hope that it doesn't decline in value... we believe there is an abundance of wholesale whiskey / bourbon available.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6c4fb50d-23bd-498e-9686-a0f28fa19ddc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Consumer alcohol preferences are inherently fickle... MGPI claims 25% vodka market share, but industry executives recently called the vodka market \"saturated\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "709cc2d2-4706-48f7-94eb-6e6b341423b6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI also produces flavored and natural gin... the Company changed its market share from 65% to 35% share.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "87609dcf-907b-48ad-a49d-42733e7efd86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI's Barreled Whiskey Inventory Is Rapidly Rising, While Sales Are Declining, And Inventory Turnover Plunges", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9efd3d93-520a-49e0-a4ac-71e15fc4a593", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The Company tells investors it has the \"potential\" to sell its whiskey at 3x the current cost... we believe it should be viewed as a long-term asset", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2bc4bb7-d991-404d-ab2a-557911b531e0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI's free cash flow is sharply negative and it is borrowing heavily on its credit facility... its financial profile is precariously stretched", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f8916686-e34e-4f47-ae62-72353ac2de79", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "inventory turnover: 3.7x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-f975948a0d71", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Believes MGPI Is A \"Strong Sell\" For The Following Reasons:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.302+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cd28ba2c-4a2e-4562-b674-4c22e71a9690", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "AIDA Model", "slug": "aida-model", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-86fc-773c-813f-d416714b8413", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Attention, Interest, Desire, Action - classic persuasion sequence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "aae1c568-144c-4b5a-afa1-edb5d305ceb7", "evidence": "The slide presents a clear problem (MGPI's strong sell case), agitation (various risks and concerns), and conclusion (Spruce Point's negative view).", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.789753+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solve (PAS)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solve-pas", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-869f-7564-8d42-de54ed29ab90", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Identify problem, agitate the pain, present the solution", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "4838e05b-9e2f-4325-956d-a2262ca3efbf", "evidence": "The slide presents a problem (MGPI's financials and business model), agitates it (by highlighting various risks), but does not explicitly offer a solution.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.823695+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 9, "type": "analysis", "title": "The slide uses a 'Warning' header to frame the first section as a red flag regarding accounting integrity.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "thesis_headline", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "thesis_headline", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Thesis headline", "slug": "thesis_headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-073a-70cb-b9f6-772a597bb5af", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 96, "componentCount": 12, "textChars": 3353, "nDataPoints": 10, "notes": "The slide uses a 'Warning' header to frame the first section as a red flag regarding accounting integrity.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "seconds": 4.963, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/9", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-9", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We see approximately 60% - 70% downside risk in MGPI's share price to a range of $16 - $21 per share", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-1d498c750409", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI has just two small sell-side analysts that tout its stock has 17% upside to $55/sh and seem confident it can compound its sales and earnings by at least 5% over the two years, while expanding EBITDA margins by 170bps. Based on our price target of 60% - 70% downside, there's a terrible risk / reward of owning shares at the moment", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "08882485-b9b6-46cc-a313-c34d827b9dad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "list", "text": "To our dismay, starting in Q2'16 we find that MGPI has been quietly restating purchase amounts from the JV in fiscal year 2015. These restatements, coincide with the period that both MGPI's CFO abruptly resigned in May 2015 (he had been CFO since 2009) as well as its Randy Schrick who had been with the Company 42yrs in June 2015 (most recently served as VP of Production and Engineering). MGPI's reported purchases from ICP are explicitly contradicted by Seacor. Seacor has generally reported less sales to MGPI than MGPI claims. We can understand why MGPI might report slightly higher purchases than Seacor (e.g. shipping costs), but don't understand why in any case they would be reported lower as in 2014", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3c61da43-3011-461b-a1d3-1fca16fb8f08", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Insiders always know best so follow the money. It's no surprise to us that the Seaberg family which owns ~28% of the Company's common stock and 84% of the preferred shares (giving them Board control) recently entered into a stock sale program in late December to start liquidating a portion of its holdings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "603fa66b-7518-4bd1-a05d-df429481c191", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We also observe that sales figures related to customer freight costs are not adding up YTD, and being retroactively restated higher in 2015. Our concern about the validity of MGPI's numbers could cause issues with its credit facility covenants", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "69a7e164-f2c5-48d3-a3be-53bd3515c610", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "list", "text": "In our view, it is easy to refute the bull case. Investors are valuing its shares as if it already were the best branded alcohol producer in the world (greater than Diageo, Constellation and Brown-Forman) even though it has no firmly established brands. MGPI trades at a rich 2.5x, 14.5x and 29.0x 2017 street estimates of sales, EBITDA, and EPS, respectively. Optically, Its leverage appears conservative at just 0.8x Debt to EBITDA. But, in reality once its EBITDA and EPS start to decline, investors will focus heavily on the fact it has zero cash and is utilizing 46% of its credit revolver", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "949c2d69-80ea-4307-8bc3-547e7de47b84", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Spruce Point always takes extra precaution to identify and evaluate related-party transactions when they occur at public companies. In the case of MGPI, we think investors should question its relationship with ICP, an entity which it owns 30% and produces ethanol related products with Seacor, another publicly traded company", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bf978124-dccd-44ad-a31b-fd907a76d1f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "list", "text": "MGPI's valuation multiple is stretched and trading near an all-time high. We believe that once it becomes clear that the whiskey market is saturated, MGPI is stuck with excess inventory, and its tiny brands fail to gain traction, investors will once again realize they own a mediocre commodity alcohol and ingredient Company, which would ordinarily be valued at 1x sales and 8x – 9x EBITDA. As a result, we see approximately 60% - 70% downside risk in MGPI's share price to a range of $16 – $21 per share", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e2ccca2b-5b41-49cc-ad6f-0828a933a50c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "downside risk: 60% - 70%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-211feb66069b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Warning: Related-Party Transactions and Revenues From Customer Freight Shipping Are Not Adding Up", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "409afd35-fb3c-455f-9c65-56174dc26465", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI's Shares Are Priced For Perfection And Now Its Largest Shareholder Is Liquidating", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bbeea793-7391-49b9-9251-c84cd5f35976", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We See 60% - 70% Downside Risk", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "da77942b-57d1-46c1-9950-3deee798cda6", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "7d5c5ac5-c37e-4af0-a338-07a650c29322", "evidence": "The slide cites specific data and analyst estimates to support its claims.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.5, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.935001+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Thesis archetype", "slug": "thesis-archetype", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b0b-7428-9b26-f171d1e753fb", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A canonical investment / activist thesis shape (breakup, fraud, governance).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "28271a80-1749-4b6e-a6ee-61e6b7c92b51", "evidence": "The slide presents a clear thesis (60-70% downside risk) and supports it with various arguments.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:13.899992+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "optional", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "7691f064-6d04-4d09-8f26-681423a5e38f", "evidence": "The slide explicitly highlights accounting inconsistencies and related-party transaction concerns to argue for a massive valuation correction.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 10, "type": "analysis", "title": "The slide uses a combination of a valuation table and a bar chart for debt maturities to argue that the company is overvalued and financially fragile.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "valuation_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "valuation_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-12c3-77cd-8474-6cd39cf844cb", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 40, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 416, "nDataPoints": 64, "notes": "The slide uses a combination of a valuation table and a bar chart for debt maturities to argue that the company is overvalued and financially fragile.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "data_table", "bar_chart_vertical" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "seconds": 2.82, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/10", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-10", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI's valuation is rich and its financial condition is fragile with no cash and significant leverage on earnings and EBITDA expectations that are likely to sorely disappoint", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4bbe2d6d-8a50-4d41-8908-3d29c400ceb1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Debt Maturities In The Near Term Relate Mostly To Material Purchases", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Grouped bar chart", "slug": "bar-grouped", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff3b-751e-a8ff-f21ff11097b1", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-grouped", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0ce62b55-680d-4f6c-b305-1098fc02e125", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Total Enterprise Value: $811.5", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87f9-cfb0d6cb7357", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Based on Wall St. Sell-side analyst and Spruce Point adjusted estimates", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "568ac509-2ebe-4649-a859-03bc08ff8a5f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Capital structure and valuation multiples table", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a8df6c75-78e6-4537-880c-29ca719d2d9b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Capital Structure Overview", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9162e5f2-bf44-4cc8-8f8d-89b1bc01fa25", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "44299f2a-47a0-4492-bc4a-2e384142b8e2", "evidence": "Comparison of Street vs Spruce Point adjusted valuation multiples", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:51.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "valuation-bridge" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 11, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a Bloomberg terminal screenshot as a base, annotated with callouts to highlight negative events coinciding with stock price movements.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 26, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 278, "nDataPoints": 10, "notes": "The slide uses a Bloomberg terminal screenshot as a base, annotated with callouts to highlight negative events coinciding with stock price movements.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "screenshot", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "seconds": 8.106, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/11", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-11", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Multiple callouts detailing executive departures, regulatory audits, and insider selling events.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5e9fb98b-e6e4-4bc0-b2a7-400f47240c75", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Dec 2016: Board Chair and largest owner enters into 10b5-1 Stock Sale", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-5469252af900", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Bloomberg stock price chart", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1bd779bc-aa97-4366-8c80-d1f0841532c1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3d8d48d4-72d0-423e-9aa9-31ecea9e23af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI’s Meteoric Stock Increase Deserves Significant Investor Scrutiny", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47cdaab2-99c1-4866-91e5-19b803cd4779", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "c191d34d-bdd6-47d3-b326-06eb4549ece4", "evidence": "The slide links negative corporate events and insider selling to stock price movements to suggest artificial inflation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.31+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 12, "type": "setup", "function": "front_matter", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 7, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 136, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.935+00", "seconds": 4.635, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/12", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-12", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.012, "w": 0.547, "x": 0.453, "y": 0.961 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Proprietary and Confidential –May Not Be Distributed or Copied Without Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC Consent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.935+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ff639bb3-666d-4379-9689-69592e6a8d7f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.388, "w": 0.201, "x": 0.073, "y": 0.306 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.935+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "054a5129-b430-4152-aca5-183adc4ca9ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.335, "x": 0.375, "y": 0.468 }, "kind": "title", "text": "The Bear Case on MGPI", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.935+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "28bd242b-a5d2-4efd-af90-0c8dd90f731b", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 13, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a classic 'What they say vs. What we think' structure to undermine the bull case.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 64, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1111, "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "The slide uses a classic 'What they say vs. What we think' structure to undermine the bull case.", "elementsJson": [ "comparison_table", "bullet_list" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "seconds": 2.97, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/13", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-13", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "What may have been true in the past, should not be assumed in the future.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-42e141a52231", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Spruce Point counter-arguments regarding margin realization, lack of disclosure, brand failure risk, and competitive threats from Diageo.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "09a40b5f-f5fa-4ceb-ae2c-9b573f4120a2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Apis Capital Dec 2015 quotes regarding margin expansion, secular tailwinds, and barreled distillate value.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4be3f34a-9175-4d03-bf6b-23424a5a83a2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Margins will expand in coming years, driven by mix shift towards premium alcohol and ingredients products...\" — Apis Capital Dec 2015; \"The company benefits from secular tailwinds in favor of whiskey – rye whiskey in particular\" and \"Existing Business Growth with Significant Market Share and Sustainable Barriers.\" — Apis Capital Dec 2015; \"The real strategic win, however, appears on the balance sheet as \"barreled distillate\". These barrels are filled with distillate, booked at cost, and owned by MGP for the aging process. In a sense, this is MGP's \"reserve\" which they can access at any point after aging for 4 years. Aged barrels of distillate can sell for 3x the cost after ~4 years of aging.\" — Apis Capital Dec 2015", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-44807ec5416f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Bull vs. Bear Case", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "31f4c85a-5d6b-422f-b22b-7a2682516e4f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point's View", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "39afe505-38a6-4c42-8fca-6ccf507003e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "title", "text": "What The Stock Cheerleaders' Say", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2ad057e-3cc6-4d75-a0d1-89b383898d61", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "20dcbb44-a3c7-4ac2-a9c8-a7344baa1bc8", "evidence": "Side-by-side comparison of bull vs bear arguments", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:52.55+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 14, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a classic 'They say / We say' structure to undermine bullish narratives.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 22, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 387, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses a classic 'They say / We say' structure to undermine bullish narratives.", "elementsJson": [ "comparison_table", "headline_text" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.246+00", "seconds": 5.006, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/14", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-14", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI's foray into branded liquor products is at best a way out-of-the-money call option", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-09155e9a1b87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "framework", "text": "Contrasting bullish analyst quotes with bearish rebuttal points.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Framework", "slug": "framework", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa18-77c6-b10a-ccb8277ac0fa", "version": 1, "description": "Named conceptual framework instance." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Framework instance", "slug": "instance", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05a2-72af-be0b-7edc60708a03", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "instance", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.246+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "047e0a4d-efb6-491f-b4f7-ab935be252ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“..additional upside exists if the company is able to successfully launch its own, branded whiskey.” — Apis Capital Dec 2015", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:55+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-0ce3f23bb751", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison table between 'What The Stock Cheerleaders' Say' and 'Spruce Point's View'", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.246+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "531bb3a0-b9c3-417d-8d02-48467b332a06", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Bull vs. Bear Case (cont'd)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.246+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ba221e0f-c4ee-4413-bb57-bd8958369eb7", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "83ac9293-6354-4a28-8be9-fe8388913f57", "evidence": "Directly juxtaposes external analyst quotes against the activist's counter-arguments.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.246+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 15, "type": "setup", "title": "Uses a contrast-pairs framework to dismantle specific analyst claims.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 66, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 789, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "Uses a contrast-pairs framework to dismantle specific analyst claims.", "elementsJson": [ "comparison_table", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "seconds": 3.178, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/15", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-15", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Once the whiskey bubble bursts, and MGPI's braded liquor strategy clearly fails, investors will realize they own a mediocre ingredient Company, which would be valued at 1x sales and 8x – 9x EBITDA", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-1fbdf4ad433d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Apis Capital Dec 2015: Strong earnings growth... Craig Hallum Dec 2016: $50 price target... SunTrust Dec 2016: $60 price target... Seeking Alpha: Limited downside...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d160e476-4ee5-4a70-bb5b-cec711a65b2a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "EBITDA multiple: 8x - 9x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-2683f7f7d3c6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The stratospheric rise in MGPI's share price... Once the whiskey bubble bursts... It doesn't give us confidence... There is no visibility in MGPI's commodity businesses...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "384d85da-6cb7-42a6-8fae-2c4443f92373", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Additionally, strong earnings growth combined with modest rerating towards its branded alcohol peer group offers substantial upside — Apis Capital Dec 2015", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-21896a4c2cae", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Bull vs. Bear Case (cont'd)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0d57b9f4-2933-44a1-8e4b-e0a7a72b2796", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "title", "text": "What The Stock Cheerleaders' Say", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "454dccfb-cc96-4324-ad94-4145ceac50a6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.43, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point's View", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bed77be6-7b52-4b78-b064-4c123c742f3f", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "60cedc22-f395-43b9-9164-a2d489b8dcc5", "evidence": "Side-by-side layout comparing opposing viewpoints.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:53.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 16, "type": "analysis", "title": "The slide uses a color-coded system (red for negative, blue for neutral) to summarize the outlook for each profit driver.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "comparison_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "comparison_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Comparison table", "slug": "comparison_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0a06-73f8-8813-fe022fab1de2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 13, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 173, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses a color-coded system (red for negative, blue for neutral) to summarize the outlook for each profit driver.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.6+00", "seconds": 5.022, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/16", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-16", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "29c019c4-3423-4142-9790-79f8319b257b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.7, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Profit Driver, Assessment, Implication for Future MGPI Profit", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5689609b-00b7-4c84-8d34-d242213008ef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Profit Driver Analysis Suggests A Difficult Road Ahead For MGPI's Earnings Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c69eb430-ead5-4f57-80e6-dd4d2d907a79", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "fd5cb85e-51e8-45a0-86e0-5d641ac86599", "evidence": "The slide systematically evaluates business drivers to diagnose the company's future earnings health.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "frameworkName": "diagnostic-test" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 17, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting the age and operational risks of the company's core assets to undermine its valuation.", "function": "name_villain", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "name_villain", "functionCanon": { "name": "Name villain", "slug": "name_villain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1746-70d6-bc58-5eeaf5865526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 66, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1278, "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "The slide uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting the age and operational risks of the company's core assets to undermine its valuation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "photo", "photo" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "seconds": 3.874, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/17", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-17", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "New and modern distillery capacity is rapidly entering the market while MGPI's old assets are currently trading at a historic valuation multiple near 6x book value!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-8ae6dff6315a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.527, "y": 0.475 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Close-up view of Atchinson facility", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2610a635-9720-4fa4-a922-8f91823be321", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.027, "y": 0.475 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Aerial view of Lawrenceburg distillery", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "540a6e3b-6e65-42e0-9d8b-a585af01aef7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.925, "x": 0.037, "y": 0.188 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Both of MGPI's assets are old and prone to operational disasters. In particular, MGPI is promoting its ability to leverage its Lawrenceburg distillery to gain share in the premium spirits market with a focus on whiskey and bourbon. The facility has a long history and was established in 1857 as the Rossville Union Distillery. Seagram and Sons acquired it in 1933. When Seagram's folded in 2000, Diageo and Pernod Ricard split the beverage division, with Pernod taking the Lawrenceburg facility. Pernod sold it to CL Financial in 2007 to form LDI. MGPI acquired LDI in October 2011 for the announced sum of $15m, although the actual payment was just $10.9m according to the 10-K. New and modern distillery capacity is rapidly entering the market while MGPI's old assets are currently trading at a historic valuation multiple near 6x book value!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "635fbefc-f24d-49bb-b628-2537303adab6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.527, "y": 0.368 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Atchinson, Kansas; Opened in 1941; Products: Distilled Alcohol and Food Ingredients", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c007262b-3c98-4962-8b8e-37a24ce41ba7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.027, "y": 0.368 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Lawrenceburg, Indiana; Founded in 1847; Products: Premium spirits distilled", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e8a5c9c3-bc45-493c-87a5-57645dd25b78", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.308, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Overview of MGPI's Old and Aging Assets", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f89f4bec-8038-4b24-9817-55aa4f179f62", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "0727f653-5dba-4db4-b7a6-218ca16b7527", "evidence": "Frames the company's assets as 'old and prone to operational disasters' to build a negative case.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 17, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 18, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting safety failures to justify a lower valuation multiple.", "function": "name_villain", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "name_villain", "functionCanon": { "name": "Name villain", "slug": "name_villain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1746-70d6-bc58-5eeaf5865526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 46, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 725, "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "The slide uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting safety failures to justify a lower valuation multiple.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "screenshot" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "seconds": 5.704, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/18", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-18", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Current and prospective investors should price in the risk that a potentially larger disaster completely incapacitates operations and has a material hit to earnings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-a0c4be2d7c7d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "image", "text": "News footage of chemical incident", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ea233da8-3f01-4df7-9596-aa7894bd56c9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.205 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It's hard to get excited to pay a premium multiple to own a Company with a history of operational disasters which include explosions, and hospitalizations of workers and innocent community members. Fortunately, no one has died yet from accidents at MGPI's plant. Current and prospective investors should price in the risk that a potentially larger disaster completely incapacitates operations and has a material hit to earnings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "588f3035-409c-4b77-b77f-0c3e1d046cf4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.08, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: KSHB", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "77c8ede5-6e9f-49d0-a06b-314c6fcf7467", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Date / Source and MGPI Accident Headline table", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41630a53-3f75-4b54-aec7-7dacae4b47bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.317, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGP's Track Record of Operational Hazards", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "03c3f9b3-aca1-401b-a02a-a7164b1c545c", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d1946ed7-d07a-45f2-b5e3-415efb77d154", "evidence": "The slide frames the company as a 'villain' with a history of disasters to justify a negative investment thesis.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.621+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 18, "frameworkName": "antagonist-introduction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 19, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a 'bubble' narrative to critique the target company's growth strategy.", "function": "name_villain", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "name_villain", "functionCanon": { "name": "Name villain", "slug": "name_villain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1746-70d6-bc58-5eeaf5865526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 75, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1446, "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "Uses a 'bubble' narrative to critique the target company's growth strategy.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "photo", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.842+00", "seconds": 3.897, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/19", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-19", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The next phase of the market will see increasing numbers of exits, even as the number of new entrants continues to grow.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-8a58757ba5af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Bubble-Like Increase of In-Production US Craft Distilleries", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.842+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "75fe9703-1a79-46bc-a632-a9645637e76d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Recent Liquor Store Visit: Dozens of Domestic Whiskey / Bourbons Competing For Shelf Space", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.842+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b836e40-9254-4362-b755-aeeb9e123747", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "US Craft Distilleries: 1,000", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-9388edc39f31", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In Spruce Point's opinion, the \"explosive growth\" in the craft whiskey market has now reached the saturation point. Thanks to the help of an ambitious whiskey blogger who has tracked the market, it's easy to see there are now in excess of 1,000 brands/distillers domestically (1). According to a recent industry white-paper, \"The Craft Distilling market is no longer in its infancy. The pioneers of the 90's and 00's yielded to the explosion in new entrants over the past few years. And now we are seeing some of those entrants departing. The next phase of the market will see increasing numbers of exits, even as the number of new entrants continues to grow.\" This bodes poorly for MGPI's fledgling new brands. Without substantial marketing effort and brand awareness, MGPI's goals to establish a branded product faces substantial challenges.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.842+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d858daf8-40c9-446a-87d6-642c5f305b03", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The Craft Distilling market is no longer in its infancy.\" — The Craft Distilling market white-paper", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-8e3b7a700818", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) The Complete List of American Whiskey Distilleries & Brands, Updated Jan 6, 2007. Source: American Distilling Institute via Whiskeywash.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.842+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "42a4e317-328e-4ae8-8ed3-f9cf50585323", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Craft Whiskey Market Becoming Saturated; Pop Out The Bubbly....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.842+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8e5f384a-5532-401b-a0c4-c444a14006c4", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 20, "type": "setup", "title": "Uses specific company announcements to demonstrate market self-correction.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 82, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 1375, "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "Uses specific company announcements to demonstrate market self-correction.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "seconds": 3.024, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/20", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-20", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Demand Creates New Supply", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-657602732de1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.36, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Laurel County Barrel Maker Planning $20m Expansion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4d15ffe8-e908-4f4e-815a-9d0137330dc0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.67, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Speyside Bourbon Cooperage", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ef1ba7c7-533b-46e2-9b6d-283c4b572521", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Independent Stave Company Purchases Land in Western Kentucky Slated to Become the Company's Sixth American Oak Stave Mill, Paving the Way for Future Expansion to ISC's Barrel-Making Operations", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f07cd529-a75e-490b-8a8d-186a2ca51b35", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A bottleneck that restricted the supply of domestic whiskey and bourbon has been a shortage of white oak barrels used for aging. In May 2015, a Wall Street Journal article highlighted the issue. However, like all supply/demand imbalances they eventually get corrected. In response to the shortage, current manufacturers are expanding production", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e71db688-3b33-47eb-ac33-e12215c0b7a2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "From industry heavyweight Brown-Forman: \"The reduction in underlying net (other) sales was due primarily to declines in used barrel sales reflecting lower prices and volumes as a result of weaker demand from blended Scotch industry buyers and pricing pressures due to increased supply of used barrels in the market. (Source: 10-Q p. 24, filed 12/7/16)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e6ed6be-b7b3-4979-a45e-de6d2355f1ac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The reduction in underlying net (other) sales was due primarily to declines in used barrel sales reflecting lower prices and volumes as a result of weaker demand from blended Scotch industry buyers and pricing pressures due to increased supply of used barrels in the market.\" — Brown-Forman (10-Q p. 24, filed 12/7/16)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-6958c9514b70", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "White Oak Barrel Shortage Will Self Correct", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6b044f67-d586-4eaa-942e-c3fdf6471492", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Demand Creates New Supply", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb09-739d-900c-815b0d9ac526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "subtitle", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1b571c26-50ae-4ef4-b02a-ec42f5f3910e", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before-After-Bridge", "slug": "before-after-bridge", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-8604-7188-883f-42370288ad05", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Narrative structure: Paint the before, show the after, explain the bridge", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "4209e382-8281-45e2-90b7-3fa571f52cf7", "evidence": "The slide presents a problem and then offers a solution, 'Demand Creates New Supply'.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:31.022469+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "a19c3b3e-6989-4053-85a2-3b6a171cfefd", "evidence": "The slide explicitly addresses a potential counter-argument (shortage) and provides evidence of market correction.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.158+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 21, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses external media citations to validate the thesis of technological disruption in a traditional market.", "function": "frame_problem", "rawType": "thesis_headline", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "thesis_headline", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Thesis headline", "slug": "thesis_headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-073a-70cb-b9f6-772a597bb5af", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "frame_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Frame problem", "slug": "frame_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-13db-753e-ad70-e9b2d0dab398", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 69, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1477, "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "The slide uses external media citations to validate the thesis of technological disruption in a traditional market.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "photo", "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "seconds": 6.933, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/21", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-21", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Anything that reduces the aging time to bring new whiskey to market is bearish for supply.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-39468d20f7e8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Product images of Cleveland Whiskey, Hudson Baby Bourbon, and Wasmund's Single Malt", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Illustration", "slug": "illustration", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe76-7772-a5ac-c0b7294d7615", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "illustration", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "393cd0c6-6e68-4fe5-8d9e-3dda94eac747", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Technology That Produces More Whiskey Faster – CNBC August 2015\nEverything You Need To Know About Rapidly Aged Whiskeys – Esquire, June 2015\nFast whiskey: Distillers use technology to shorten aging process -- Mlive.com June 2015", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b2a7079e-53b6-448a-96e8-c63f2bc969dd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point has always favored looking for non-consensus short ideas where investors are under-appreciating the risk of technology disruption. In the case of the whiskey and aged liquor business, there are new entrants offering the same craft spirit experience, but produced in significantly less time than the traditional three year aging process. Others such as Time & Oak, are offering a new technology kit to allow for home aging. Anything that reduces the aging time to bring new whiskey to market is bearish for supply.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4fcef8f9-da7f-4465-87db-493eb13e3f4e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"With more modern technology than what's used in the traditional whiskey-making process, Cleveland, Ohio-based distiller Cleveland Whiskey has refined a proprietary scientific method. But thanks to his experimentation, his current process takes about a week from the beginning of production to bottling and shipping, compared with the years it takes using traditionally methods\" — CNBC August 2015", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-3d769fa10d37", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.61 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Cleveland Whiskey: 6 Days | Hudson Bay Bourbon Whiskey: 4 Months | Virginia's Cooper Fox Distillery", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2421cd4a-a6ea-45dd-b3d1-496a54d6ac5c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Rapid Aging Technologies Changing the Whiskey Industry", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "70a18e41-8ee2-431b-8614-a59460ea6931", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "AIDA Model", "slug": "aida-model", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-86fc-773c-813f-d416714b8413", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Attention, Interest, Desire, Action - classic persuasion sequence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "402af609-b3e0-4d25-bb9a-2f40593af075", "evidence": "The slide presents an attention-grabbing headline, followed by a problem agitation, and then a call to action, 'Anything that reduces the aging time to bring new whiskey to market is bearish for supply.'", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:31.103107+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 21, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "6a7dd8e1-e5a0-4b4e-a833-40ec33048973", "evidence": "Argues that new technology (rapid aging) is disrupting a traditional industry (whiskey) and is bearish for incumbents.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.221+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 21, "frameworkName": "disruptive-innovation" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 22, "type": "setup", "title": "Uses quotes from CEOs of Pernod Ricard and Diageo to support the argument of market saturation.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 87, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 2368, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Uses quotes from CEOs of Pernod Ricard and Diageo to support the argument of market saturation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "seconds": 3.679, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/22", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-22", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI investors would be wise to learn from the recent history of the Vodka market for insights into what may happen in the whiskey market. The explosion of premium brands such as Grey Goose, Ciroc, Belvedere, Tito’s and countless others led to a saturation and maturation of sales in the vodka category. Consumer alcohol preferences are inherently fickle and constantly evolving, so while whiskey preference may be strong today, when tastes change it will leave a glut of brands and supply with few buyers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8dca2f8b-488b-48f7-9eea-e600bd01da20", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI investors would be wise to learn from the recent history of the Vodka market for insights into what may happen in the whiskey market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-b9a30de6640d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.73 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Diageo meanwhile has witnessed a similar effect on Smirnoff and Ciroc, both of which recorded volume declines in the US of 4% and 3% during 2013/14.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47963667-823a-4c08-a2f6-edfcfbebc547", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Over-saturation in the US vodka market is blurring category boundaries and damaging sales of established premium and super-premium brands.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c9197c86-f1a5-4b8a-b32e-a6beaaf076a9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Ivan Menezes, CEO of Diageo, said earlier this summer: “In the US what did happen is you’ve had a lot of competitive entry; I think there are over 200 brands or items that came into the market in the last two years”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ad807afc-d1c1-409c-ba78-8744aa43948c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "According to Pierre Pringuet, CEO of Pernod Ricard, the influx of “hundreds” of new vodka brands over the past few years has negatively impacted sales of the group’s premium vodka Absolut. Depletions in the US during the 2013/14 financial year came in at -2%, causing overall volume sales of the brand to decline 4%. “Let’s be honest, we are not pleased with the performance of Absolut in the US,” Pringuet said during a presentation of the French drinks group’s end-of-year financial presentation. “The reality is that there are several hundred new entrants in the market. Basically 99% or more of these brands will not survive, but the problem is that they do take market share.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e09834d1-0860-445c-8539-10a226de1ef5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The reality is that there are several hundred new entrants in the market. Basically 99% or more of these brands will not survive, but the problem is that they do take market share.\" — Pierre Pringuet, CEO of Pernod Ricard. \"In the US what did happen is you’ve had a lot of competitive entry; I think there are over 200 brands or items that came into the market in the last two years\" — Ivan Menezes, CEO of Diageo.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-beec85d67822", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: The Spirit Business", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f9169fa3-95bf-4d40-836a-9cd1a1bac729", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Case Study: Whiskey Will Follow The US Vodka Market, Which Became Saturated From Hundreds Of Entrants", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "80a1b8d6-479a-41d0-b2a6-bc508a3f8ba2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Analytical method", "slug": "analytical-method", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "b42c4911-7946-49b5-951c-5f3d23f4e2bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Diagnostic / structuring methods (5-whys, fishbone, issue tree, hypothesis-driven).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "b9ebc472-0c4a-496f-b176-aa0bf0cc6719", "evidence": "The slide uses a case study to analyze the vodka market and draw insights for the whiskey market.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:31.179425+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "5b939f82-ac8d-484c-8b22-c5056c1f1085", "evidence": "Uses the vodka market as an analogy for the potential future of the whiskey market.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.05+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "frameworkName": "argument-from-analogy" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 23, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a red flag icon to highlight the warning/contradiction.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 57, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1265, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Uses a red flag icon to highlight the warning/contradiction.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "seconds": 3.551, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/23", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-23", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: MGPI does not include a risk factor related to the loss of Diageo’s business in its recent 10-K. However, a note in its credit agreement (below) suggests it is a “Material Contract” with an aggregate amount of more than $25m or approximately 7.8% of LTM sales.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fce8a47b-7006-4a81-98f3-633f8d0392ae", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "LTM sales", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f3-714d-84b1-e6fd28676eb5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Completion of Diageo’s new distillery in Shelbyville, KY is expected soon. Diageo has stated its facility has capacity for 1.8m proof gallon (750,000 9-liter cases). (1) Compare this with MGPI’s estimated 2.3m case production of rye whiskey and bourbon in 2015, and you can see why Diageo may no longer need MGPI’s distilling capacity. (2) A contract termination or modification by Diageo could have a material adverse effect on MGPI.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "620ca16e-11ef-4cca-93f2-cce3562c7faf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) Diageo announcement, May 2014 (2) MGPI Investor Presentation, Nov 2016 (slide 5); total cases multiplied by market share", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "faac166a-667a-45a5-98d8-38ff9742a8f2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Date: Feb 27, 2015. Warning From MGPI's Credit Agreement: \"Material Contract\" means, collectively, (i) any contract or other agreement... involving payments in an aggregate amount of more than $25,000,000... (ii) each Existing Supply Agreement and (iii) that certain Distillate Supply Agreement dated as of July 1, 2013 between Diageo Americas Supply, Inc. and MGPI Indiana.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c7cf7d0c-810d-4caa-a8ea-e1ad72abd125", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Diageo Is A Material Customer That Could Disappear Fast", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bc653650-0740-4317-8db1-e54d5d161c81", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "09a3bd4f-4499-42b9-afa0-4656d56b6e4d", "evidence": "Exposing a contradiction between company 10-K risk disclosures and internal credit agreement definitions.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:54.933+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 23, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 24, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a table to systematically list customer-specific expansion projects.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 41, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 792, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses a table to systematically list customer-specific expansion projects.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.647+00", "seconds": 4.734, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/24", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-24", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Industry sources suggest that MGPI's key customers are Diageo, High West, Sagamore Spirit and Templeton Rye. Each of these customers (as well as Terresentia) are adding their own production capacity and storage which suggests they may no longer need to do business with MGPI.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-d00137cb71ca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Industry sources suggest that MGPI's key customers are Diageo, High West, Sagamore Spirit and Templeton Rye. (1) Each of these customers (as well as Terresentia) are adding their own production capacity and storage which suggests they may no longer need to do business with MGPI.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.647+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aab53d00-949d-4f8d-b73d-bceefe0e9945", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "the company actually contracted the distilling portion to a separate company in Indiana (aka MGPI). — Templeton Rye video statement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-d7a7ed02cae5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.68, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Customer and expansion activity table", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.647+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c55bd511-eb86-4eed-bdd3-a938fcf0cb1f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI May Lose Customers As They Increase Their Own Distilling Capacity", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.647+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a5f4bd94-0464-4ae2-ba49-df9f0b7056cd", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d1ecdbf2-dd08-478f-8f15-42672085730b", "evidence": "The slide anticipates a counter-argument about MGPI's growth by showing customer churn risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.647+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 24, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 25, "type": "evidence", "title": "The slide uses a chronological list format within a table to highlight industry-wide capital expenditure.", "function": "cite_precedent", "rawType": "precedent_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "precedent_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Precedent table", "slug": "precedent_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-115e-757e-a38f-486981054171", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "cite_precedent", "functionCanon": { "name": "Cite precedent", "slug": "cite_precedent", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-142b-714b-86d4-58aad7b568ec", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 12, "componentCount": 2, "textChars": 95, "nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "The slide uses a chronological list format within a table to highlight industry-wide capital expenditure.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.585+00", "seconds": 4.614, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/25", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-25", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.8, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Competitor and expansion details table", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.585+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "103697af-5e9a-4ece-a56c-611508c411e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Substantial New Whiskey Bourbon Capacity Coming To Market", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.585+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d086cd28-ce53-49aa-8740-b937c89b4cf2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "2506d458-8b80-4b84-8bf4-36e447960663", "evidence": "The slide presents a structured list of competitor actions to support a thesis.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.585+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 25, "frameworkName": "list-presentation" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 26, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a before-and-after comparison to highlight corporate obfuscation.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 66, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 834, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "Uses a before-and-after comparison to highlight corporate obfuscation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "screenshot", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "seconds": 3.162, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/26", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-26", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.22, "x": 0.75, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Notice Cases Increased by 3.6m But Market Share Fell?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "40ba95fc-b84f-44ae-bde9-24ba6a94721f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.52, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "image", "text": "MGPI Gin Market Share At 65%....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1daf80db-9b75-4e7d-a8f6-040b27911b69", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.52, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "image", "text": "A Year Later It's At 35%.....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2a3126f0-bf24-421e-946c-90646073e7a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Gin market share: 35%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-77ae7fcc1126", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Pay close attention to MGPI's recent investor presentation. In the past year, MGPI changed the layout of the key slide that promotes its market share in key distillery products. In particular, we find that MGPI's share of Gin plunged from 65% to 35% in one year. The Company has not disclosed the impact of this loss in any of its SEC filings. MGPI also reclassified its “US Whiskey” category as “Bourbon” – which now includes three items (Bourbon, Tennessee Whiskey and Rye) and allowed them to portray their market share growing by 1%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4852f97d-bd63-4f63-bd82-cf02bef45bab", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Investor Presentation, Nov 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "45d811ad-591a-429b-ba22-454053944cac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Investor Presentation, Nov 2015", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8015f87c-b9df-4938-9ba7-4258f574fc06", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Case Study: MGPI Quietly Lost Significant Market Share In The Gin Category", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "390ab33a-c79a-4c31-a2b7-01bb506dea70", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "a25fee3d-07a2-4f4f-bb86-a7041d52d6b8", "evidence": "Comparison of 2015 and 2016 investor slides to show decline.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.247+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 26, "frameworkName": "before-after-framing" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 27, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses visual comparison of bottle labels to highlight a change in production location.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 34, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 542, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses visual comparison of bottle labels to highlight a change in production location.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "photo" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "seconds": 3.39, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/27", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-27", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "It is very likely that Pernod shifted production away from MGPI's Lawrenceburg, Indiana distillery to Arkansas", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-0d7d8598d1b0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.73, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Bottle 2 (Lawrenceburg, IN)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9c7e87f3-e67e-4696-8aa8-7257b241db30", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.35, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Bottle 1 (Fort Smith, AR)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9f636722-18ca-49ee-b81d-2d2ac982f515", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.35, "y": 860 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "Red box highlighting production location on label", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Legend", "slug": "legend", "status": "active", "canonId": "31361933-3d22-4c70-bbad-0801e9fffc0c", "version": 1, "description": "Color/symbol decoder placed adjacent to a chart or diagram." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e5280934-e3dc-470b-a02d-2aeb31d8610d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.95, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Seagram's is the #1 Gin by market share in the U.S. according to Statistica and owned by Pernod Ricard. If you look carefully at the label, you will notice bottles list Fort Smith, Arkansas. It is very likely that Pernod shifted production away from MGPI's Lawrenceburg, Indiana distillery to Arkansas", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5fb039dd-46fc-4b65-9c3c-897819d5dc94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.75, "y": 0.105 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Gin Market Share Loss (Cont'd)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "35c01a05-ddb1-48a0-bdb0-39f3fe17d735", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "78f0f274-a468-4769-8312-f24bd68cd287", "evidence": "Using visual evidence to contradict company narrative regarding production sources.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.495+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 27, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 28, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a red flag icon to emphasize the warning nature of the content.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 31, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 473, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses a red flag icon to emphasize the warning nature of the content.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "seconds": 9.535, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/28", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-28", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point believes investors are underpricing the risks faced by MGPI in 2017, some of which could have a material adverse effect on its financial condition", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d81fd153-0396-4aec-a59e-a123345b27c6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "one of our more popular specialty starches — MGPI (regarding Fibersym)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fa-fe1fab6cf7c6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Financial Filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2479cdee-c490-441c-92fc-d0f7a4824267", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Table detailing Key Risk, Discussion, and Potential Impact/Risk Assessment for Diageo, Fibersym, Grain Supply, Collective Bargaining, and TTB Audit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bf1fa589-5942-4d49-80bb-3c430846c4d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI Has Significant Business Risks Into 2017 Not Being Discounted", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5f79b14d-b7ee-4f0b-9ade-c16f1dd9d7fc", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "00912816-2fcb-480c-8b71-43eecd415f99", "evidence": "The slide categorizes risks by impact level (Very High, High, Medium) and provides specific business context for each.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.78+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 28, "frameworkName": "risk-assessment-matrix" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 29, "type": "tension", "title": "Includes a callout box highlighting the company's use of the word 'Potential' to cast doubt on their 3x value claim.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 72, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1010, "nDataPoints": 14, "notes": "Includes a callout box highlighting the company's use of the word 'Potential' to cast doubt on their 3x value claim.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "bar_chart_vertical", "line_chart", "screenshot", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "seconds": 3.932, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/29", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-29", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.18, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.765 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Note the emphasis on “Potential” Use and that “Selling on open market” is 3rd priority bullet with “Potential” emphasis again on 3x value", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fb5ec0ea-9b52-4c29-a8e9-f21a7281afa0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Note the emphasis on \"Potential\" Use and that \"Selling on open market\" is 3rd priority bullet with \"Potential\" emphasis again on 3x value", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-18c28de54b06", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.44, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Whiskey Sitting Within Inventory Is Surging....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7e07227-70a1-4254-a490-16f2bb02e451", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Barreled Distillate Inventory: $45mm", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-1e61cf0c7061", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI is investing $29m to construct new warehouse capacity to allow clients to store and age its whiskey products. It also believes its $45m of inventory can be sold in a few years at prices in excess 3x book value. The problem with this argument is: 1) Substantial new whiskey capacity is coming online, 2) New technologies are emerging that allow distillers to age whiskey in under 1 week, and 3) The ‘great barrel shortage’ which restricted supply is likely to taper as supply/demand rebalance", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "19058754-124a-44df-832c-091b9e2b81ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI investor presentation, red emphasis is ours", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0fc853b5-251d-48cf-b33a-cbcf66fc9dc6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Financial Filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "71197a73-a0c6-4743-a035-6490b8c31bda", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI Is Baiting Investors With Hope of Big Profits Selling Aged Whiskey", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5af1ee50-92ee-4e06-81cc-ae55ae05c5a9", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "0d8eb0f5-00e5-4f2e-9008-5e7dfefddf26", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames company claims as 'baiting' and highlights 'potential' as a deceptive qualifier.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.251+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 29, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 30, "type": "tension", "title": "The red box highlights the two specific line items being compared.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 22, "componentCount": 4, "textChars": 425, "nDataPoints": 2, "notes": "The red box highlights the two specific line items being compared.", "elementsJson": [ "screenshot", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "seconds": 2.775, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/30", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-30", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "J.B. Thome & Co is a well regarded bulk spirits brokerage in the distilled spirits industry founded in 1977. Their current price list contains two 95% Rye Whiskies listed from Lawrenceburg, IN which we can safely assume is MGPI's product. We observe no price difference between the 2011 and 2013 vintage product.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "37b0a2c0-3b94-4201-aa9d-9e9bd8dc2043", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "image", "text": "J.B. Thome & Co. price list", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3029c99f-8ca9-41f7-8f51-784552f24f5b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: J.B. Thome & Co., Inc.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6b66d1e3-439b-4c24-a591-5a4af9ab6c6f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.315, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Don't Bet On Appreciation of Aged MGPI Rye Whiskey......", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "09dce2b0-bef0-4ef2-877f-f7e2d25ef0c9", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "ef68c1cf-a954-459a-abcb-60f7e87920e9", "evidence": "Exposing a contradiction in asset valuation to undermine a company's narrative.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.143+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 30, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 31, "type": "tension", "title": "Includes a screenshot of a Signature Spirits price sheet and a callout box highlighting specific distillate prices.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 48, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 711, "nDataPoints": 15, "notes": "Includes a screenshot of a Signature Spirits price sheet and a callout box highlighting specific distillate prices.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "screenshot", "data_table", "bullet_list", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "seconds": 6.134, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/31", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-31", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Signature Spirits Distillate Program price sheet", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "97932d59-addd-458c-acfe-44d21690e027", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Rye Distillate (95% Rye, 5% Malted Barley): 135 Proof, $14.25/gallon\n100% Corn Distillate: 150 Proof, $13.79/gallon\nBourbon Distillate (75% Corn, 21% Rye and 4% Malted Barley): 135 Proof, $11.68/gallon", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "86819d78-23a3-41ec-a00a-0ce7bc8c4e3b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Most of MGPI's whiskey and bourbon sales are white-label, and go through the bulk wholesale market. We contacted Ultra Pure the #1 U.S. based bulk alcohol supplier which we believe acts as a broker that purchases supply from distillers such as MGPI, and resells to other industry participants. What we found via our research is that prices are virtually unchanged in over two years.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5d6f5ca4-a5ad-44cd-aab7-9f9b4533712f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Ultra Pure", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "111fc4d3-d98b-4b83-8c33-c943c51295ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.6, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Straightbourbon.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ccc5dde1-8f1a-4633-95bf-9154c155e3b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.315, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI Has Virtually No Pricing Power", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.511+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "deaa1f60-6e3d-45a1-a420-056d79a5d0dc", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 32, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a table to systematically dismantle the company's growth narrative.", "function": "name_villain", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "name_villain", "functionCanon": { "name": "Name villain", "slug": "name_villain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1746-70d6-bc58-5eeaf5865526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 40, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 780, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses a table to systematically dismantle the company's growth narrative.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.021+00", "seconds": 3.088, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/32", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-32", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI tells investors that it will be able to transform itself into a purveyor of premium spirits. To date, it has introduced three brands, but Spruce Point sees limited traction or success.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-58f1089dc589", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI tells investors that it will be able to transform itself into a purveyor of premium spirits. To date, it has introduced three brands, but Spruce Point sees limited traction or success, and MGPI hasn't provided investors with more information to evaluate its performance (sales/marketing spend), or articulate the costs of establishing a national distribution plan.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1151f087-5801-46d6-af03-a318c50f6e19", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "At nearly $75 a pop, this bourbon will have to prove it's worth the price tag. — Review", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-5e737b5c7b1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "table", "text": "MGPI Brand | Observations On Why It Has Limited Traction", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4a3755c-f1f7-40c7-af1d-7d5f02b2e643", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI's Foray Into Branded Whiskey A Long-Shot To Succeed, With Limited Traction", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9ed9918b-59f0-46fd-af99-06bd20696918", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "fd5d5711-6306-4e4a-b7b7-cf6e17a3a0df", "evidence": "This slide presents a critical view of MGPI's whiskey business, portraying it as a long-shot to succeed.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.078243+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 32, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "33866dfa-ed13-4dbd-8787-0c6930445f2e", "evidence": "Systematic breakdown of company claims vs. market reality", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 32, "frameworkName": "villain_critique" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 33, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses historical precedents to cast doubt on the viability of MGPI's brand strategy.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "precedent_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "precedent_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Precedent table", "slug": "precedent_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-115e-757e-a38f-486981054171", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 41, "componentCount": 4, "textChars": 1034, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses historical precedents to cast doubt on the viability of MGPI's brand strategy.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.014+00", "seconds": 2.629, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/33", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-33", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "In particular, having a liquor brand backed by a deep-pocketed billionaire, future president, or celebrity musician does not guarantee success.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:57+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-ae988bcbf88e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.205 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Building a nationally recognized and successful liquor brand is no small endeavor. There are plenty of examples of failures across all liquor categories. In particular, having a liquor brand backed by a deep-pocketed billionaire, future president, or celebrity musician does not guarantee success. In the table below, we illustrate examples of failed forays into branded spirits. We don't believe MGPI has fully articulated to investors how much it has spent, and will commit to spending, to market and grow its three brands.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "32230cec-c6a1-4dd0-8c39-4a7f295b06bd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.435 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Date/Source, Liquor, Celebrity Backer, Outcome. 2006-2011, Vodka, Donald Trump, Trump Vodka discontinued. 1994-2007, Virgin Vodka, Richard Branson, Failed. 2011-2012, Cream Liqueur, Pharrell Williams, Discontinued. 2002, Whiskey, Willie Nelson, Limited success.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee73bc17-abc4-4465-80fd-44f1d09c79a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Deep-Pocketed Investors and Celebrity Endorsement Don't Guarantee Success In The Branded Alcohol Business", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a857fe6e-01ce-4e51-9d63-5a86505436a2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Valuation: Precedent transactions", "slug": "precedent-transactions", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-22b0-70fc-b5b7-8d6ee69c15dd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9e2b-7165-a5f9-f94a9758ce38", "description": "You apply multiples derived from comparable historical M&A transactions", "familyLabel": "valuation-move", "categoryName": "Analysis", "categorySlug": "analysis" }, "agent": "architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "architect" ], "matchId": "1fa8ef01-b6d0-479d-bec9-7e96891e62d9", "evidence": "The slide provides a table of failed liquor brands with celebrity backers, serving as precedent transactions.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.155371+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "66073407-86fe-4cd1-ab06-32e3f7310c0e", "evidence": "Uses historical failures to counter the assumption that celebrity backing ensures success.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 34, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a combination of a combo chart (bar/line) to show internal decline and a bar chart to show peer under-investment.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 72, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1024, "nDataPoints": 10, "notes": "The slide uses a combination of a combo chart (bar/line) to show internal decline and a bar chart to show peer under-investment.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "bar_chart_vertical", "bar_chart_vertical", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "seconds": 3.585, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/34", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-34", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "As a producer of commodity products and ingredients, MGPI has to constantly innovate to maintain a competitive advantage against its larger peers that have substantially more resources and can easily out-spend it. MGPI holds very few patents, but as we highlighted earlier, its key patent rights to Fibersym® is set to expire in 2017 and could have a material adverse effect on margins.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-5a9c1e737816", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.445 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "R&D Expenses Plunging....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c2f87cf5-6732-452a-ae1b-b0323f60d177", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.445 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "R&D Expense To Peers", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ef278e62-cc26-478a-92e0-a748fbb9838f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "R&D Expense: $0.7", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-5fd24f5bc22e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.205 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a producer of commodity products and ingredients, MGPI has to constantly innovate to maintain a competitive advantage against its larger peers that have substantially more resources and can easily out-spend it. MGPI holds very few patents, but as we highlighted earlier, its key patent rights to Fibersym® is set to expire in 2017 and could have a material adverse effect on margins.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "edeb0c6b-a0de-4edd-a918-1e0f7a70dfd0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) As of last public report in 2012 (2) As of last public report in 2014", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a7d79b3d-e7fa-4188-b981-f840b339b91f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Annual Reports. Note: MGPI doesn't disclose quarterly R&D expenses", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e5c03085-9af7-4297-8c89-68d87c6c9da2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.318, "y": 0.055 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Limited R&D and Patent Expiration Risk", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.061+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dca7cd33-c1a5-49da-be5f-164ff43335c1", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 35, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide features the Spruce Point Capital Management logo (a pine tree).", "function": "front_matter", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 9, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 224, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide features the Spruce Point Capital Management logo (a pine tree).", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.994+00", "seconds": 2.503, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/35", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-35", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.45, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Proprietary and Confidential -May Not Be Distributed or Copied Without Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC Consent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.994+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "98b16f32-8be4-4d6c-987c-7002e996f8d3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Spruce Point Capital Management logo", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.994+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a2490411-7676-48f2-a126-6f965432a446", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.35, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Liquidity Risk, Credit Concerns and Questionable Related Party Accounting", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:55.994+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9ddd1cdb-979e-47fb-ace0-765b85f0db37", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Slide recipe: Cover", "slug": "cover-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2a08-767d-9128-e7431e6fe8a3", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-29e5-7738-b5fa-6892e5dc8e65", "description": "The first ten seconds. Build it deliberately.", "familyLabel": "slide-recipe", "categoryName": "Slide", "categorySlug": "slide" }, "agent": "designer", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "designer" ], "matchId": "315deaa2-7e79-428d-b291-93416c3bdd45", "evidence": "This slide serves as a cover page with a title and a logo, setting the stage for the presentation.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:14.260312+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 35, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 36, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses two charts to illustrate financial weakness: cumulative FCF and debt/revolver dependency.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 55, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 657, "nDataPoints": 14, "notes": "Uses two charts to illustrate financial weakness: cumulative FCF and debt/revolver dependency.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "bar_chart_vertical", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "seconds": 2.735, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/36", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-36", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI has a weak financial profile that cannot fund its own growth. Its cumulative free cash flow since 2012 is just $1.5 million! As a result, MGPI is becoming more dependent on short-term revolving credit borrowings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-db69431d3dd8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Cumulative Free Cash Flow of Just $1.5m Since 2012", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "07c70a2e-7ff4-4577-845b-7516ee33db66", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Worrisome Rise in Credit Revolver Dependency", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e159981-ad69-4fcd-8616-288f4c5a9488", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Free Cash Flow: $1.5 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:58+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-dc4986b0a164", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI has a weak financial profile that cannot fund its own growth. Its cumulative free cash flow since 2012 is just $1.5 million! As a result, MGPI is becoming more dependent on short-term revolving credit borrowings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e7f0d586-98dc-404b-9a5e-bdfaffca14bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI SEC filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8eda55ad-5641-48e2-bab3-3c1ec1a48ca5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "A Terrible Business With No Margin For Error In the Whiskey Expansion Plan...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "da486c32-4e0d-4c12-8a89-35f2a818cac1", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "56dc5778-4851-493e-9282-ca5d5c7ca13a", "evidence": "Links weak FCF to debt dependency and expansion risk.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:56.254+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 36, "frameworkName": "causal-chain" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 37, "type": "tension", "title": "The chart uses a dual-axis combo format (bar + line) to show absolute sales vs growth rates.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 49, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 493, "nDataPoints": 11, "notes": "The chart uses a dual-axis combo format (bar + line) to show absolute sales vs growth rates.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "bar_chart_vertical", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "seconds": 5.591, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/37", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-37", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Despite all the excessive optimism that MGPI is a booming whiskey/bourbon producer, we point out that its net food grade alcohol sales growth has been recently declining.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-583d9f8a12e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Net Food Grade Alcohol Sales", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "02afe4e3-e85b-4336-8353-a2f1b60d0fcd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "QoQ Growth and YoY Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "694df810-23b3-4617-9c53-17552824a2bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Net Food Grade Alcohol Sales: $57.0", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-5eeea0d729f1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.205 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Despite all the excessive optimism that MGPI is a booming whiskey/bourbon producer, we point out that its net food grade alcohol sales growth has been recently declining.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d9d8c87a-a796-40ac-b6fa-4bd1288564d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGP Financials", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "91c2fe41-d163-4c19-b37e-732592b85604", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Warning: Food Alcohol Sales Are Not Growing", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1382813c-d063-4f0c-adf7-0028399e08a6", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "9b62bc34-1e43-47c7-9f8d-f5490b3c9e0d", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames a 'warning' against 'excessive optimism' to expose a contradiction in market perception.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 37, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 38, "type": "tension", "title": "The chart highlights a decline from 2015 to 2016E and a slight decline between YTD 2015 and YTD 2016.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 61, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 636, "nDataPoints": 7, "notes": "The chart highlights a decline from 2015 to 2016E and a slight decline between YTD 2015 and YTD 2016.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "bar_chart_vertical", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "seconds": 3.549, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/38", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-38", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.8, "y": 0.435 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "-19.2% YoY Decline", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "511df689-dfe4-49e6-9b48-3673682aab2f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.8, "y": 0.535 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "-3.6% YoY Decline", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "acf06b9a-bf38-492e-b39d-206be49e3f6f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "This does not appear to be the sign of a healthy, growing company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-01306eae13b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Freight costs from 2012 to 2016E", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9f4d92e6-3c27-4ed7-86c7-aa3dd9295480", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "customer paid freight costs: -19.2%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-04f9f5333c94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Taking a step back, using customer paid freight costs as a directional indicator of business activity, we observe they are in YoY decline. Based on YTD 2016 annualized results, we estimate 2016 full year results are close to 2014 levels. This does not appear to be the sign of a healthy, growing company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e381b973-826e-4b02-ad66-4f136bf5dae5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGP Financials (1): YTD 15/16 based on recently disclosed figures in Q3'16 (2) Annualized based on YTD 16 results", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1b43ddf9-1be8-440a-a3c4-f0af43bfbdbd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Warning: Slowdown Signaled By Freight Costs", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dff02a54-838c-46a1-9f3d-894f736b1190", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "87d27e39-8b00-44c6-af2f-487a3ecfb936", "evidence": "Using operational metrics to contradict management growth narrative", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.32+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 38, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 39, "type": "tension", "title": "Includes annotations highlighting specific numerical inconsistencies in 10-Q filings.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 57, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 718, "nDataPoints": 16, "notes": "Includes annotations highlighting specific numerical inconsistencies in 10-Q filings.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "seconds": 6.389, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/39", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-39", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.69, "y": 0.625 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Notice the YTD 2015/2016 numbers don't add up to the quarterly results. YTD '16 should equal $11.68m and YTD '15 should equal $11.59m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0eaac52c-0c64-4ec7-9f6f-63f46cefb6ef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "list", "text": "2016 Disclosures of Customer Paid Freight Costs Included In Sales", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2fc0056d-5927-42f9-97dc-d1d8baf1bda7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "list", "text": "2015 Disclosures of Customer Paid Freight Costs Included In Sales", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f1845705-2e31-4c71-a6e1-e73cf0df46e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue recognition", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-96eb77ef624c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As another subtle indicator of potential financial issues, we suggest investors look closely at MGPI's revenue recognition disclosures of customer paid freight costs included in sales. The YTD 2016 results are not adding up, and 2015 results are retroactively being revised higher.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ec8b3754-9649-42b9-b6b1-47ddecfdf0f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Q1'16 10-Q, p. 8; Q2'16 10-Q, p. 8; Q3'16 10-Q, p. 8; Q2'15 10-Q, p. 9; Q3'15 10-Q, p. 8", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0a741bca-8d45-4d64-a347-538ffad22850", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Warning: Inconsistencies Suggesting Potential Revenue Overstatement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3a1e81dd-c4cf-4c3c-99eb-cb00b2b9e6d0", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "714fef5a-d8df-4bc5-82ed-bfc5285cb623", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies inconsistencies in financial reporting to suggest revenue overstatement.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 39, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 40, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a contrast-pair framing to highlight the discrepancy between operational metrics and financial reporting.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 59, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 790, "nDataPoints": 16, "notes": "The slide uses a contrast-pair framing to highlight the discrepancy between operational metrics and financial reporting.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "line_chart", "bar_chart_vertical", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "seconds": 3.017, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/40", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-40", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "With stagnant sales, MGPI’s inventory turnover has been falling for many quarters, and yet its gross margins are near record highs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-fb6525a3984c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Yet....Gross Margins Near Historic Highs", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95b928c5-3b24-4fd8-912c-f89bb8cc5146", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Quarterly Inventory Turnover Plunging...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c4cf97a7-002c-4b1a-a832-0989cb0841c1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "inventory turnover: 3.7x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fb-fedcdc2b9473", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "With stagnant sales, MGPI's inventory turnover has been falling for many quarters, and yet its gross margins are near record highs. The Company does not disclose how much older and higher margin whiskey may be sold off to support current margins. MGPI has also attributed recent gross margin increases to \"plant efficiencies,\" but then had a chemical hazard, which sent innocent people to the hospital a month later.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ec0a8f6d-b176-45e9-ab9a-c12c02eb19db", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Financial Filings. Defined as LTM Cost of Goods Sold / Average LTM Total Inventory", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "080a7b4f-be4d-4280-b4c5-a8fd37f04a33", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Warning: Inventory Turnover In Rapid Decline", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c4f96496-5447-4adf-86b0-c459fbabf351", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "86f5d79a-ac24-4065-a6d8-5d2e6dd693c2", "evidence": "The slide explicitly contrasts two metrics (inventory turnover vs gross margins) to expose a contradiction.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.149+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 40, "frameworkName": "contrast-pairs" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 41, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'before-after' logic by comparing 'Stated Current Ratio' vs 'Adjusted Current Ratio'.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 74, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1586, "nDataPoints": 35, "notes": "The slide uses a 'before-after' logic by comparing 'Stated Current Ratio' vs 'Adjusted Current Ratio'.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "seconds": 3.074, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/41", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-41", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "By adjusting MGPI's balance sheet to remove the effect of long-term whiskey holdings, and include off-balance sheet purchase order commitments, we observe that its liquidity (as measured by its current ratio) to be significantly worse than it appears on the surface.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-944e53a2b32b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "current ratio: 0.7x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-9f5e9159a3ae", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI states in its Annual Report the following in its discussion of inventory accounting: \"Bourbon and whiskeys are normally aged in barrels for several years, following industry practice; all barreled bourbon and whiskey is classified as a current asset.\" But wait a second, how can an asset that is intended to be held for more than a year be classified as current? A current asset is generally defined as an item that can be converted to cash with one year. (1) By adjusting MGPI's balance sheet to remove the effect of long-term whiskey holdings, and include off-balance sheet purchase order commitments, we observe that its liquidity (as measured by its current ratio) to be significantly worse than it appears on the surface.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9ff5bb38-0c08-4bd5-a2b0-ef84fd09b026", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Bourbon and whiskeys are normally aged in barrels for several years, following industry practice; all barreled bourbon and whiskey is classified as a current asset. — MGPI Annual Report", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-9855a499dfaa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Financials (1) Definition of \"Current Asset\" (2) Disclosed in Note 3 \"Commitments and Contingencies\" as open purchase order commitments generally extending out 1 year", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b2116f8a-c261-4c8e-ac64-38a2329dfa7c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Table showing Current Assets, Whiskey Distillate adjustments, Liabilities, and Purchase Obligations across 5 periods, resulting in Adjusted vs Stated Current Ratios.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3b139d77-269b-472a-b681-45c5f0481a87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI's Liquidity Is Worse Than It Appears", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2de6256f-0876-4f67-9499-f9a8a3d4e373", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "da978cca-d21b-4f54-8424-9b2ab6e68d80", "evidence": "The slide explicitly contrasts the company's stated accounting policy with the author's interpretation of 'current asset' definitions.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.619+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 41, "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 42, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses red circles and arrows to draw attention to the discrepancy between sales decline and margin growth.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 84, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 1393, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Uses red circles and arrows to draw attention to the discrepancy between sales decline and margin growth.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "data_table", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "seconds": 7.251, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/42", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-42", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.67, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: Carefully notice that MGPI doesn't put the break-out of \"Premium Beverage Alcohol\" in its 10-Q SEC Filing. Yet, in its Q3'16 press release it boasts that industrial alcohol fell -22.9% YTD while premium beverage increased +16.7%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8d21ac7d-5feb-46a2-99ad-be94268a0f84", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.67, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Given the significant increase in margin, management should give more disclosure here.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f86fb872-a39c-4601-8d5b-98f2ded78508", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Warning: Carefully notice that MGPI doesn't put the break-out of \"Premium Beverage Alcohol\" in its 10-Q SEC Filing.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-3cd822c86ec5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Gross margin %: 3.1 pp", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-441cdc7c9a5e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point doesn't understand how MGPI's distillery margins increased 310 bps YTD when its segment sales declined by 2.1%. The Company says the increase is from: \"the continuing shift in sales mix within food grade alcohol from lower margin industrial alcohol products to higher margin premium beverage alcohol products, a decline in input costs, and an increase in warehouse revenue.\" Looking carefully, we find a speculative explanation in the press release, but MGPI cannot commit to put it in its 10-Q SEC filing.....why?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d5f7cb1-6b67-4bb3-85c9-690541e643e2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "the continuing shift in sales mix within food grade alcohol from lower margin industrial alcohol products to higher margin premium beverage alcohol products, a decline in input costs, and an increase in warehouse revenue. — MGPI Press Release", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-406c4b937ec0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: MGPI Q3'16 10-Q, p. 25", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "448ddc77-1605-4887-b968-ac9e19a481ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Product Group Net Sales and Other Financial Information tables showing YTD 2016 vs 2015 performance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ac029f2b-d0d1-4489-8c05-32c950176c8d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.37, "x": 0.315, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Something Doesn't Make Sense To Us", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "428fd8e0-8455-4ceb-9ef8-4723dafd45e0", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "01513460-8c76-4d1a-ac0a-e5b75f27c105", "evidence": "Highlighting inconsistencies between public relations claims and formal SEC filings to suggest potential financial manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.924+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 42, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 43, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses red circles to highlight inconsistent financial figures across different reporting sources.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 30, "componentCount": 4, "textChars": 529, "nDataPoints": 36, "notes": "The slide uses red circles to highlight inconsistent financial figures across different reporting sources.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.189+00", "seconds": 2.298, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/43", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-43", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The income statement disclosures and footnote disclosures of the ICP equity investment should match, but they often don't.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fe-3776e92a6872", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "There are serious discrepancies in reporting and prior year restatements of related party purchases between MGPI and ICP. The income statement disclosures and footnote disclosures of the ICP equity investment should match, but they often don't", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7d5945cd-3da8-42f6-8b4c-4db4186a8bd4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.68, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison table of SEC filings showing discrepancies in related party purchase figures.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9fea888c-835e-4d39-a194-4772b9e69fb4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Related-Party Purchases Not Adding Up, Quietly Being Restated Higher in 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eface8b3-893f-4310-910a-de6f6a95135a", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "c9fc10be-b495-495e-b9dd-29802e69e2e7", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies discrepancies in financial reporting to suggest potential accounting manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 43, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 44, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses red circles to highlight specific conflicting data points in financial filings.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 32, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 487, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "Uses red circles to highlight specific conflicting data points in financial filings.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "seconds": 2.257, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/44", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-44", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "MGPI's reported purchases from ICP (its related-party JV where it owns 30%) are explicitly contradicted by the majority owner, Seacor (NYSE: CKH).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-b7b9817c20a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.195 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI's reported purchases from ICP (its related-party JV where it owns 30%) are explicitly contradicted by the majority owner, Seacor (NYSE: CKH). Seacor has generally reported less sales to MGPI than MGPI claims.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "54db1970-49cc-439a-9862-51d985adbce8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.27, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "10-K references", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e98ef2c7-4843-4f7e-ad68-9f467c4792bb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison table of MGPI vs Seacor reported sales for 2015 and 2014.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "271f27bf-5282-46b2-be0b-be63db653f89", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.315, "y": 0.025 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Two Books Being Kept Between Related Parties?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4c3ee7f7-2349-43b8-8fde-76d2f284beaa", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "35ee7f25-8e14-4b54-9da1-2a05372a7d1b", "evidence": "Direct comparison of conflicting financial disclosures to suggest accounting irregularities.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.228+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 44, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 45, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a red flag icon to signal a warning or 'red flag' event.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 33, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 757, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses a red flag icon to signal a warning or 'red flag' event.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "seconds": 6.108, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/45", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-45", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Either scenario would be bad and is expressly listed as a Negative Covenant according to its Credit Agreement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:36:59+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-80e35b01407f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.07, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Icon grid", "slug": "icon-grid", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdfe-749d-9990-1db465a3eed4", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "icon-grid", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d9ad2adc-954b-4593-aa07-81646bc3c647", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.84, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The quiet restatement of figures without explanation for both a) MGPI's related-party purchases from ICP, and b) Customer paid freight costs included in sales has Spruce Point worried about the potential that MGPI could be: 1) Misstating purchase figures from ICP at off-market prices to boost margins, 2) overstating revenues, or 3) Making an undisclosed change in accounting method. Either scenario would be bad and is expressly listed as a Negative Covenant according to its Credit Agreement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bee31114-df01-4b9b-ab23-e443f597bbbe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Date: 2nd Amendment Feb 27, 2015. Negative Covenant: 6.8 Accounting Methods... 6.10 Transactions with Affiliates...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e148f6ae-1903-4768-b954-1ef310da5b04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.318, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Has MGPI Violated Its Credit Agreement?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4eb5a682-954b-4d0f-90b4-94738556d676", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "7cbfa32e-fd13-4094-861d-72623a172a94", "evidence": "The slide explicitly links unexplained accounting restatements to potential covenant violations and misstated financials.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:01.297+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 45, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 46, "type": "analysis", "title": "The slide highlights specific legal definitions from the 3rd Amended Credit Agreement to support the thesis of credit risk.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "appendix_disclosure", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "appendix_disclosure", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Appendix disclosure", "slug": "appendix_disclosure", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-07b2-7549-8e8b-932a19f6e616", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 40, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 1037, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide highlights specific legal definitions from the 3rd Amended Credit Agreement to support the thesis of credit risk.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.812+00", "seconds": 2.55, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/46", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-46", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "To the extent its whiskey value declines or ‘storage losses’ result in lost inventory, MGPI’s borrowing base would shrink and mandatory prepayment risk increases", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f3-714d-84b2-1e7c78826d87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.816, "x": 0.092, "y": 0.192 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Investors should pay careful attention to MGPI's credit agreement. It has a fixed charge covenant and requires mandatory pre-payments if the revolver usage exceeds the borrowing base. The covenant ratio would be impacted heavily if MGPI's EBITDA declines (from possible customer losses we highlighted) or tax penalties increase (from the TTB audit). The borrowing base is increasingly being driven by MGPI's barreled whiskey distillate. To the extent its whiskey value declines or 'storage losses' result in lost inventory, MGPI's borrowing base would shrink and mandatory prepayment risk increases", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.812+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b9c449f9-f6bb-4d32-bc6c-f7006b96dcc2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.042, "y": 0.972 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: 3rd Amended Credit Agreement, March 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.812+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1b3d005b-5563-4e30-9f11-072797f85064", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.938, "x": 0.031, "y": 0.385 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Key Credit Issue: Fixed Charges, Terms and Conditions: [Definitions of Fixed Charges and Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio]. Key Credit Issue: Borrowing Base, Terms and Conditions: [Mandatory Prepayment clause].", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.812+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0d25fd16-208b-4b24-8ef4-87cbc7d6e37d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.365, "x": 0.318, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Other Credit Implications", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.812+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e6fb6504-3e61-4640-96cd-399a8ab4760b", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 47, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a red flag icon to signal risk.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 49, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 1750, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Uses a red flag icon to signal risk.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.98+00", "seconds": 5.493, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/47", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-47", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Are investors comfortable that these added costs won't be material as management tries to suggest?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-e9c1d9c92466", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI started to disclose an audit by the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax Trade Bureau (TTB) in 2015, and its recent 2016 disclosure suggests that the scope of the audit has increased to additional time periods. Furthermore, MGPI has acknowledged that “clerical errors” and support for “storage loss” will result in additional taxes and penalties. Are investors comfortable that these added costs won't be material as management tries to suggest?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.98+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d9769071-6fdb-489c-b19e-26429b6a27bd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax Trade Bureau (\"TTB\") performed a federal excise tax audit of the Company's subsidiaries, MGPI of Indiana, LLC and MGPI Processing, Inc., for the periods January 1, 2012 through July 31, 2015 and January 1, 2013 through July 31, 2015, respectively. The Company is in the process of addressing the preliminary findings of the TTB audit regarding clerical errors and support for storage losses. The Company is unable to determine the probability that additional excise tax and penalties will be owed and cannot reasonably estimate the amount thereof. However, the Company believes it is probable that a penalty may be imposed by the TTB as a result of certain TTB audit findings but it is unable to reasonably estimate the amount thereof. Management expects that the aggregate liabilities, if any, arising from such legal and regulatory proceedings, including the TTB audit, would have a material adverse effect on the consolidated financial position or results of operations of the Company. — 10-K, Mar 10, 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-ecff81983aa0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison of 10-K disclosures from 2015 and 2016 regarding TTB audit scope and management's assessment of materiality.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.98+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a19e04bf-5838-43d8-8a81-c2e22c90f828", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Newly Disclosed TTB Audit Investigation Also Looks Negative", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.98+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f568a483-fb51-4ae5-b105-43342c254ec8", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "e9cdb72f-83b6-441e-85d0-95d4ce7022fe", "evidence": "Highlighting management's downplaying of regulatory audit risks and potential material liabilities.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:00.98+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 47, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 48, "type": "setup", "function": "transition", "rawType": "section_divider", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "section_divider", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Section divider", "slug": "section_divider", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-066a-7402-9554-6ae504999041", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "transition", "functionCanon": { "name": "Transition", "slug": "transition", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1365-7149-92aa-66df859e75fd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 7, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 141, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.536+00", "seconds": 2.029, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/48", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-48", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.45, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Proprietary and Confidential –May Not Be Distributed or Copied Without Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC Consent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.536+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b5036c8a-aa74-412a-adbc-fc655086caae", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.536+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5ffe7bed-3ffd-4f60-889f-b9841efbedd0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.39, "x": 0.37, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Valuation and Price Target", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:57.536+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "96f52508-55ca-4737-af68-b8f40a080453", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 49, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a peer group comparison to argue that MGPI is overvalued by bulls who misclassify it as a beverage company.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "peer_benchmark", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "peer_benchmark", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Peer benchmark", "slug": "peer_benchmark", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-08f0-7158-a78d-d7b5331fefaf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 60, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1146, "nDataPoints": 180, "notes": "The slide uses a peer group comparison to argue that MGPI is overvalued by bulls who misclassify it as a beverage company.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "seconds": 3.291, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/49", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-49", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The bulls aspirational hopes are that MGPI will successfully transition from a commodity ingredient producer to a fully branded spirits company, and achieve a significantly higher multiple.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-c8e6336ff707", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Price / Consensus EPS: 28.6x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-cc08fabbf73c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The bulls aspirational hopes are that MGPI will successfully transition from a commodity ingredient producer to a fully branded spirits company, and achieve a significantly higher multiple. As a result, they try to justify the current $50 price target on a multiple that MGPI doesn't deserve. We believe its transition will fail miserably, and that investors will re-value it back in line with commodity ingredients peers at approximately 1x sales and 2x book value. The bulls also ignore the fact that MGPI's common stock is subordinate to the preferred stock, which is controlled by the Seaberg family, and has special voting rights and controls a majority of the Board votes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bf85eb2d-c90f-4976-80ab-4ccfd1da40e4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company financials, Wall St. and Spruce Point estimates", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "196744ca-8d71-43a5-b2cc-b741284bd22e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Peer comparison table of Commodity Ingredients vs Aspirational Beverage companies across various valuation metrics.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "03feb50e-e1da-46c7-8518-6d642d71ad57", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Bulls Have Aspirational Dreams MGPI Can Be Valued Like a Beverage Company", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b6d3977d-5e79-4ae7-a978-8336cf3dad51", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d1a391f9-9838-48ad-ab3a-a429137caea7", "evidence": "Direct comparison of MGPI against two distinct peer groups to highlight valuation discrepancy.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.887+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 49, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 50, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a split-category bar chart approach to contrast MGPI's metrics against two distinct peer groups.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "peer_benchmark", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "peer_benchmark", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Peer benchmark", "slug": "peer_benchmark", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-08f0-7158-a78d-d7b5331fefaf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 32, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 147, "nDataPoints": 30, "notes": "The slide uses a split-category bar chart approach to contrast MGPI's metrics against two distinct peer groups.", "elementsJson": [ "bar_chart_vertical", "bar_chart_vertical", "bar_chart_vertical", "bar_chart_vertical" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "seconds": 2.939, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/50", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-50", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Enterprise Value / 2017E EBITDA", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ddd1801-84ef-4e0c-86c5-391b91e7bd62", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "2017/18 Revenue Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5cfc7580-b7b3-4eea-b153-af18a89bc2d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Price / 2017E EPS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b3cbec5-5282-4eda-9048-ca7334e59d08", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.47, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "2017/18 EPS Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a6ae8fbd-6a79-4de4-8220-53a38c2cfd60", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "valuation multiple: 17.1x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:03+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fe-da3584943f4d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI's Valuation In Perspective...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bfb296cd-2469-41db-ab2f-c0fe48a1a115", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d106504a-3b8e-4c30-b3e2-e6300a3fb0da", "evidence": "The slide explicitly segments peers into two groups to compare MGPI's valuation metrics.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.752+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 50, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 51, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a peer comparison to expose a valuation contradiction in MGPI's stock price.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "peer_benchmark", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "peer_benchmark", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Peer benchmark", "slug": "peer_benchmark", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-08f0-7158-a78d-d7b5331fefaf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 64, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1060, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide uses a peer comparison to expose a valuation contradiction in MGPI's stock price.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "logo_grid", "pie_chart", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "seconds": 3.064, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/51", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-51", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Compare this valuation to MGPI which is trading at 2.5x sales and has de Minimis branded sales but claims “premium beverage alcohol” sales are growing 16% but won’t certify it with figures in its 10-Q.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fe-00183fac99e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.41, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Core Categories", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pie chart", "slug": "pie", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ffdb-71bb-a800-5c5ab9f1c373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pie", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ff50db2d-01cc-4ca3-aaaf-0b48635f511e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.41, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Premium Brand Portfolio", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo grid", "slug": "logo-grid", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdd7-7409-93e5-81280a8ca215", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo-grid", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "96e2e9de-9c93-4da0-95d4-105e6bd1abd6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue multiple: 1.5x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fe-07d4eb0f755b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.21, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MGPI's valuation is more expensive than Diageo, Constellation, and Brown Forman, yet it has no proven and firmly established brands! Also, investors that want to make a pure-play investment in the whiskey/bourbon markets (without any manufacturing risks) could look at Castle Brands (AMEX: ROX). While we are not recommending an investment in Castle Brands, it's instructive to see that it trades at just 1.5x revenues and has over $65m of sales growing mid single digits. Compare this valuation to MGPI which is trading at 2.5x sales and has de Minimis branded sales but claims \"premium beverage alcohol\" sales are growing 16% but won't certify it with figures in its 10-Q.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6fa14b70-fbff-41d2-86b6-a464d671cb84", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Castle Brands Investor Presentation, Dec 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5d70b3d5-1c70-475a-ac08-626376c6bdbd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "If You Want Whiskey/Bourbon Exposure Look At Castle Brands As A Comp....", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7bab337e-777e-4174-85ca-ee05b97b5c88", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d3255d6e-3f24-4d83-b3ad-c81c4c71053e", "evidence": "Compares MGPI valuation metrics against Castle Brands to highlight overvaluation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:58.945+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 51, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 52, "type": "setup", "title": "The charts suggest that current valuation multiples are at historical highs, which the author characterizes as being based on 'illusion results'.", "function": "show_valuation_bridge", "rawType": "valuation_reveal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "valuation_reveal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Valuation reveal", "slug": "valuation_reveal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-11ad-7735-8b3c-1701af31f382", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "show_valuation_bridge", "functionCanon": { "name": "Show valuation bridge", "slug": "show_valuation_bridge", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1883-716e-9dec-4981e70b840a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 42, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 223, "nDataPoints": 14, "notes": "The charts suggest that current valuation multiples are at historical highs, which the author characterizes as being based on 'illusion results'.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "line_chart", "line_chart", "line_chart", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "seconds": 3.954, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/52", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-52", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.535, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Price / Book Value", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "146bd78a-add6-44d3-b41a-4eb684367f47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4d135aef-c5f8-4974-865a-f143a8a915d8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.535, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Price / LTM EPS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6945b4e7-09c5-4233-904a-8927860327b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Enterprise Value / LTM Revenues", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e651b6af-efc4-42ec-9603-fd59405533a1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "valuation multiples: 31.5x", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fc-e1f68e09d6a8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company financials", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a8c5753d-1129-4699-a5d9-a69c5fbe6123", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.305, "y": 0.02 }, "kind": "title", "text": "MGPI Trading At Historic Valuation Multiples On Illusion Results Will Continue", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.916+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "65f5444f-f7c3-42f3-a2a2-72496fd7c098", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 53, "type": "setup", "title": "Includes two tables: one comparing Street vs. Spruce Point estimates, and one calculating price targets based on P/E and EBITDA multiples.", "function": "show_valuation_bridge", "rawType": "valuation_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "valuation_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-12c3-77cd-8474-6cd39cf844cb", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "show_valuation_bridge", "functionCanon": { "name": "Show valuation bridge", "slug": "show_valuation_bridge", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1883-716e-9dec-4981e70b840a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 50, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 761, "nDataPoints": 48, "notes": "Includes two tables: one comparing Street vs. Spruce Point estimates, and one calculating price targets based on P/E and EBITDA multiples.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "comparison_table", "valuation_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "seconds": 3.206, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3/53", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3#slide-53", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-58a1b82469f3.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Loss of Diageo + failure to grow branded spirits will result in investors realizing that MGPI is nothing more than a commodity ingredient producer which should be valued at a 14x-16x P/E and 8x-9x EBITDA multiple", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-c2202665f272", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Price Tgt.: $16-$21", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b64-7193-87fd-c44800cdc813", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes that 2017/18 could be a major re-set year for MGPI’s earnings and valuation. We believe the biggest catalyst will be loss of revenues associated with Diageo and a normalizing expectation of profits associated with selling whiskey and bourbon. Additional headwinds on the horizon include the loss of sales associated with Fibersym® whose patent expires in 2017.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ba88a70c-54b8-4008-ab0a-db3fcf10cb74", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Spruce Point Intermediate View vs. 2017/18 Street View", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9986af5d-e060-4023-85bf-34c750087dd7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Spruce Point Intermediate Term Price Reference Ranges", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95a743fd-1063-4be3-b369-6dc0ca7eeb3a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.3, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Estimates 60% – 70% Downside", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a87b989b-74c6-4ead-87f2-3b0400c96658", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "8618f0c4-53e5-480d-ba41-bf9869418b92", "evidence": "The slide uses a series of adjustments to cash, debt, and multiples to arrive at a target price.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:43:59.428+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 53, "frameworkName": "valuation_bridge" } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [] }