{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-35d42f5356ae", "slug": "17a1b24c3cc8", "title": "Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)", "subtitle": "Kerrisdale Capital · 2024-06", "author": "Kerrisdale Capital", "date": "2024-06-01 00:00:00", "pageCount": 19, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Riot Platforms, Inc.", "targetTicker": "RIOT", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-35d42f5356ae", "slug": "17a1b24c3cc8", "title": "Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)", "rawTitle": "RIOT Kerrisdale", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "authorDisplay": "Kerrisdale Capital", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2024-06-RIOT-Kerrisdale.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2024-06-15 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2024-06-01 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 20:36:00+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 19, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Riot Platforms, Inc.", "targetTicker": "RIOT", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/17a1b24c3cc8", "activist_firm": "Kerrisdale Capital", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 187.88962697982788 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 19, "pagesIndexed": 19, "pagesWithImages": 19, "pagesWithMetadata": 19, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 118, "chartCount": 7, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 7, "documentToolMatches": 4, "frameworkMatches": 4, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "73df1677-fbee-430f-8e5c-d12404b083f9", "evidence": "The document follows a clear problem-agitate-solution narrative, highlighting Riot's problems, agitating them, and implying a solution by presenting a negative outlook.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:37.663193+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 7, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "d53426d9-0f8e-47e7-b679-843f978dc86d", "matchId": "73df1677-fbee-430f-8e5c-d12404b083f9", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies Riot's problems, such as cumulative cash burn, challenged mining economics, and substandard operations.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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"seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Logical chain", "slug": "logical-chain", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-5104-702f-8953-85757af6553d", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "If-then, premise-conclusion, deductive chain.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "6c496364-8a8a-4ff6-b2c0-60ba980706aa", "evidence": "We think the math", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:00.781685+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "08375f25-f337-49b1-8765-8ed494b33983", "evidence": "The slide explicitly frames the company's financial health as an 'illusion' and 'looting' of shareholders.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:48.426+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "d446ce00-f9de-4471-aa23-fa4710a8a33c", "evidence": "Critique of Marathon Digital's comparison of miners to oil/gold producers", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.129+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "argument-from-analogy" }, { "matchId": "9bbfcdf0-bbcc-4e4a-8f7a-9f68328c9cfe", "evidence": "The slide frames the company's business model as 'regulatory arbitrage' and 'operational incompetence' to justify legislative intervention.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "2c3a85c6-9f3f-4ae6-8b02-3a2cbf936216", "evidence": "The slide explicitly calculates the dilution Riot omitted from its press release to undermine the deal's narrative.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:50.705+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Kerrisdale short-report format — text-heavy research note with embedded charts and peer-comparison tables, not a slide deck. No explicit target price (typical of shorts). Memorable rhetorical moves: 'hamster wheel that spins faster every 4 years upon halving'; 'the math doesn't math on pubco miners' (quoted from industry consultant); highlighting Les's poker background and Yi's finance/software background as non-operational red flags. Core argument rests on four pillars: (1) post-halving unit economics >$140k/BTC, (2) $2.3bn serial dilution since 2020 with 18% YTD dilution, (3) Texas regulatory risk via SB 1751 and Navarro County rejection of Corsicana tax abatements, (4) spot bitcoin ETFs obviating the miner-as-BTC-proxy trade. Appendix addresses the May 2024 Bitfarms acquisition proposal (rejected) and includes the RIOT-BTC correlation collapse chart.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$507m+ through April alone, representing 18% share dilution", "metric": "YTD 2024 stock issuance" }, { "detail": "$2.3bn, 6x increase in shares outstanding", "metric": "Cumulative stock issuance since 2020" }, { "detail": "$142,178 for Riot vs ~$70k spot — highest-cost among peers", "metric": "All-in cost to mine per BTC (Q1 2024)" }, { "detail": "$65,557 for Riot vs $46-48k for smaller peers CLSK/WULF/CIFR", "metric": "Direct cost + SG&A per BTC" }, { "detail": "73% for Riot vs 23-46% for peers", "metric": "SG&A as % of revenue (Q1 2024)" }, { "detail": "40% for Riot vs 9-31% for peers", "metric": "Stock-based compensation as % revenue (Q1 2024)" }, { "detail": "RIOT -37% while bitcoin +74% — correlation collapsed post-ETF launch", "metric": "YTD 2024 share performance" }, { "detail": "425 BTC, 17% less than March 2022 despite tripling computing power", "metric": "Bitcoin mined in March 2024 vs two years prior" }, { "detail": "$51m each for CEO Les and Chairman Yi, plus ~$1m cash salaries in 2023", "metric": "Executive stock awards (2021-2023)" }, { "detail": "16.4x — expensive for a capital-destructive business", "metric": "EV / Operational EBITDA (2024E)" }, { "detail": "11.3% / ~44.9m shares; rejected $2.30/share acquisition proposal", "metric": "Bitfarms stake" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell Riot shares and hold bitcoin directly, as Riot's dilution machine will only disappoint shareholders who regret not simply buying bitcoin.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:36:00+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 187.88963, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Kerrisdale is short and expects further declines: Riot is already down 37% YTD while bitcoin is up 74%, and the historical RIOT-BTC correlation has collapsed since spot ETFs launched in January 2024.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Serial dilution: $2.3bn stock issued since 2020, 18% YTD 2024 dilution, zero positive cash flow", "All-in cost to mine a bitcoin exceeds $140k for Riot — the math doesn't math post-halving", "Texas regulatory risk rising (SB 1751 revival, Navarro County tax abatement rejection)" ], "scqaSituation": "Riot Platforms is a $3bn Texas-based bitcoin miner operating Rockdale (North America's largest single BTC mining site) and building out Corsicana, funding relentless growth through ATM stock issuance rather than operating cash flow.", "thesisSummary": "Kerrisdale is short Riot Platforms, a $3bn bitcoin miner that has issued $2.3bn in stock since 2020 — 18% dilution YTD 2024 alone — yet has never generated positive cash flow. Post-halving unit economics are untenable: Riot's all-in cost to mine a bitcoin (including SBC, depreciation and cash SG&A) exceeds $140k versus ~$70k spot. Texas regulatory headwinds are intensifying: Navarro County rejected tax abatements for the Corsicana facility in March 2024, and SB 1751 — which would cap demand-response participation and revoke abatements — is expected to revive in 2025. Bitcoin production per share and BTC held per share have steadily declined, and investors can now get bitcoin exposure through low-fee ETFs instead of a dilution machine. Meanwhile cheap-power operators in Russia, Ethiopia, Paraguay and elsewhere are winning a global race U.S. public miners cannot.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell Riot shares", "Gain bitcoin exposure via low-fee BTC ETFs instead of a dilution-prone miner", "Scrutinize Riot's participation in Texas grid incentive programs" ], "scqaResolution": "Don't own Riot — with low-fee bitcoin ETFs now widely available, investors seeking bitcoin exposure should simply own BTC directly rather than a serial-diluting miner with broken post-halving unit economics.", "thesisOneLiner": "Riot Platforms is a serial-diluting bitcoin miner with $140k+ all-in cost per coin, rising Texas regulatory risk, and a broken model increasingly obviated by low-fee BTC ETFs.", "precedentsCited": [ "Kazakhstan regulatory crackdown on bitcoin miners", "Kosovo regulatory crackdown on bitcoin miners" ], "scqaComplication": "Riot's all-in cost per bitcoin mined exceeds $140k against ~$70k spot, production-per-share is falling, SB 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When you watch the Q2 numbers come out in July and if we stay at kind of BTC $50-$70k range the music is going to end here...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.129+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f1dff00-afbf-4d91-b68f-d77ebced9a8a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The public market guys, some of them are playing the momentum game and others have no idea what they’re investing in. When you watch the Q2 numbers come out in July and if we stay at kind of BTC $50-$70k range the music is going to end here… People are going to start to sell out of these stocks and realize that they [publicly listed miners] made the wrong investment decision over the years, prioritizing growth over operational efficiencies. — Senior executive, leading provider of products and services to bitcoin mining industry", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:50:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee37-76cb-846f-ad8b7cc0f3e0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.663, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.373 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Challenged Mining Economics Post-Halving", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.129+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f75edb0-31a6-439d-9f72-aee6801ce4c0", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d446ce00-f9de-4471-aa23-fa4710a8a33c", "evidence": "Critique of Marathon Digital's comparison of miners to oil/gold producers", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.129+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "argument-from-analogy" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 7, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "d53426d9-0f8e-47e7-b679-843f978dc86d", "matchId": "73df1677-fbee-430f-8e5c-d12404b083f9", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies Riot's problems, such as cumulative cash burn, challenged mining economics, and substandard operations.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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Below we walk through our analysis of unit economics for the largest public miners by market capitalization immediately post-halving.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:47.748+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2732b496-54df-406c-a2a4-cf0a68f45137", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "When the CFO of the largest miner by market capitalization, Marathon Digital, was asked point blank by a retail investor on the last quarterly call about the company's current breakeven price for bitcoin, the executive gave a vague, rambling response which did not answer this basic question.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:50:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-ee37-76cb-846f-944fb7657a5f", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 7, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "d53426d9-0f8e-47e7-b679-843f978dc86d", "matchId": "73df1677-fbee-430f-8e5c-d12404b083f9", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document identifies Riot's problems, such as cumulative cash burn, challenged mining economics, and substandard operations.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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Assumes network hashrate of 590 EH/s per Hashrateindex.com, 144 blocks per day, 3.25 BTC rewards per block post-halving, an implied 32.8 hours to mine 1 BTC per EH/s, and perfect uptime.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.388+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "16b7ba79-6a0b-4251-b396-397330643eef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The analysis above summarizes unit economics on a per bitcoin mined basis for the largest publicly traded miners by using recently provided KPIs for May (the first full month post-halving) and reported 1Q24 cost items.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.388+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b8b26c56-fe00-4634-95bf-4800facd90e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.42, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison table of RIOT, MARA, CLSK, WULF, CIFR across various cost metrics per BTC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.388+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3add0b87-9503-4a58-8a5f-58836ab0dde9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.23, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Illustrative Post-Halving Bitcoin Mining Unit Economics", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.388+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ca223510-ccd2-475f-a560-594a372137ae", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 12, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 8, "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatId": "b50b0eda-2b1d-4747-8258-aa2f18a24db0", "matchId": "73df1677-fbee-430f-8e5c-d12404b083f9", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document agitates the problems by highlighting Riot's poor EBITDA profitability, high ATM issuance, and comparison to peers.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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dark and 246 dead.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.208+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dfe2a79e-4548-47eb-9d82-620e656be000", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Riot’s “Power Strategy” (AKA Regulatory Arbitrage)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:49.208+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f881813d-4e09-4b05-8cdd-e649751b81b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "the math doesn't math on pubco [publicly traded] miners. — A seasoned bitcoin mining consultant", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": 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Every day, well-run bitcoin mining facilities are presented with a remarkably simple, market-based economic decision based on the price of power and the price of bitcoin: mine bitcoin or shut down. This is precisely why Texas mining industry lobbyists call bitcoin miners \"economically perfect consumers of electricity.\" The ability to respond to prevailing power prices allows the majority of mines in Texas to operate without a fixed-price power contract (timestamp: 1:15:09). Riot is an anomaly. For Riot, the economic decision is even easier because shutting down during a heat wave can net the company tens of millions in value from not mining bitcoin based on the terms of their power contract.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "25072b6b-0ff9-4ee7-b9e6-c203d441e386", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.855 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Last March, Texas state senators Lois Kolkhorst, Donna Campbell, and Robert Nichols, all Republicans, sponsored S.B. 1751 (dubbed by critics as the \"anti-bitcoin mining bill\") which would cap miner participation in demand response programs to 10% and eliminate property tax abatements on certain mining property. The bill was passed unanimously by the Senate Committee on Business and Commerce. The Chair of that committee is Senator Charles Schwerner. Riot's Rockdale facility is in his district. Though the bill eventually failed in the House, lawyers who keep close tabs on the body have advised us that something similar to S.B. 1751 is likely to be revived in the next legislative session beginning January 2025. We have sent letters to Senators Schwerner, Kolkhorst, Campbell, and Nicols with the findings of our research given their continuing interest in the matter (visit our website to see a copy of our letter).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4a618f29-b61b-4f38-81cb-cf29870443f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.765 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If incentives can be used by a company with a flawed business model to offset substandard operations, we think it is time to rethink the incentives. Thankfully, so do some Texas state senators.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8145037c-126d-4192-bec8-85ae6e62b8d0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.235 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In sum, because Rockdale's shoddy infrastructure doesn't always allow it to fully and/or responsively curtail, particularly during times of extreme heat, Riot took the approach of bidding aggressively into programs it knew would not get called often, figuring \"if we're going to be stuck online, we might as well get paid.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88bceefc-59bb-4c11-8d36-8a7c31838b10", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "severe winter storm. What management left out was according to our source, the pipes in question were dry cooler pipes which froze and then burst because they were not properly drained during sub-freezing temperatures. 25% of the company's capacity and equipment worth tens of millions was affected by this operational incompetence.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.51+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d3aaf3c1-9fa8-4119-a7f3-804a9bbf2c48", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.545 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Riot's participation in the ancillary market and receipt of millions in Texas payor dollars to be unresponsive to soaring power prices rewards the company for the inefficiency of its operations. And none of it is necessary. At the end of a Texas Senate Committee of Business and Commerce hearing last March, a representative from ERCOT unequivocally stated a reduction in bitcoin miner participation in demand response would have no bearing on procuring ancillary services and limiting their involvement would not put the grid at risk (timestamp: 1:15:09). 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US-listed miner percentage share of network hashrate has remained stuck in the low-mid 20s during this period.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:50.978+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "17f13a6d-d1a8-4d21-85ad-b601ff1e4081", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "All of the geographies mentioned offer plentiful power... These dynamics are leading some of Riot's peers to pursue building/converting facilities to attract high performance computing (HPC) / AI workloads...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:50.978+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a0d2cb64-ad12-44c5-a18e-6dc35482ea8a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.615 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: J.P. 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The compensation structure for the Authors’ analysts is generally a derivative of their effectiveness in generating and communicating new investment ideas and the performance of recommended strategies for the Authors. This could represent a potential conflict of interest in the statements and opinions in the Authors’ documents.\n\nThe information contained in this document may include, or incorporate by reference, forward-looking statements, which would include any statements that are not statements of historical fact. Any or all of the Authors’ forward-looking assumptions, expectations, projections, intentions or beliefs about future events may turn out to be wrong. These forward-looking statements can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, most of which are beyond the Authors’ control. Investors should conduct independent due diligence, with assistance from professional financial, legal and tax experts, on all securities, companies, and commodities discussed in this document and develop a stand-alone judgment of the relevant markets prior to making any investment decision.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6eeb284a-3e73-45b7-a43a-83f2ec73d9f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "image", "text": "KerrisdaleCapital", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df1d9be3-e409-4b2b-bc42-fd565fe0f878", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.52, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Kerrisdale Capital Management, LLC | Tel: 212.792.7999 | Email: info@kerrisdalecap.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:51.021+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "093633ed-5ab7-4c9a-94ec-3277c92df0c1", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [ { "from": 1, "to": 7, "label": "Problem (Identify pain)", "description": "The document identifies Riot's problems, such as cumulative cash burn, challenged mining economics, and substandard operations." }, { "from": 8, "to": 12, "label": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "description": "The document agitates the problems by highlighting Riot's poor EBITDA profitability, high ATM issuance, and comparison to peers." }, { "from": 13, "to": 14, "label": "Solution (Provide relief)", "description": "The document implies a solution by presenting a negative outlook on Riot's future prospects and suggesting that U.S.-listed miners are competing in a global race they cannot win long-term." } ], "loops": [ { "from": 3, "to": 7, "label": "Cost Of Inaction", "description": "Highlight the cost of inaction for Riot's investors" }, { "from": 8, "to": 9, "label": "Benchmark Gap", "description": "Show the benchmark gap between Riot and its peers" } ] }