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Memorable rhetorical devices: 'Nuclear Bros' framing, 'Fission Impossible' subtitle, repeated use of italicized expert quotes ('completely made up from their rear end', 'they were goal-seeking costs'). Strong CFO Cochran quote-contradiction on '50 MWe' modularity vs prior 'strategically small' positioning. Notable charts: SMR cost-escalation peer comparison (p.10), 500MW vs 10x50MW reactor visualization (p.11), Morgan Stanley SMR data-center share projection (p.18). Sam Altman / AltC SPAC backstory in Appendix II is meaningful context. No author signature — institutional Kerrisdale byline only. Stake size not disclosed beyond 'short shares'.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$3.24bn at $22/share, 147m fully diluted shares", "metric": "Market capitalization" }, { "detail": "$0 across all five years (pre-revenue)", "metric": "Total revenue 2024-2028E" }, { "detail": "($45m) to ($85m) annual cash burn", "metric": "Free cash flow 2024-2028E" }, { "detail": "Oklo assumes $7,000/kg vs industry $30,000-40,000/kg (5x lowballed)", "metric": "HALEU fuel cost assumption" }, { "detail": "Former Commissioner says at least 4 years; 2027 target 'beyond optimistic'", "metric": "NRC license timeline" }, { "detail": "Citi estimates $2.7bn additional capex needed over 5 years", "metric": "Capital required" }, { "detail": "300%-700% versus original estimates per IEEFA study", "metric": "SMR construction cost escalation" }, { "detail": "$20,139/kW, 16x more expensive than natural gas CCGT", "metric": "NuScale CFPP cost" }, { "detail": "Oklo had 88 employees vs 450+ at Kairos Power and X-energy", "metric": "Employee count" }, { "detail": "Morgan Stanley estimates only 1%-3% (2-5 GWe)", "metric": "SMR share of US data center power by 2035" }, { "detail": "Up ~300% amid retail enthusiasm despite no commercial viability", "metric": "Share price performance" }, { "detail": "Superphénix lifetime capacity factor below 7%", "metric": "Sodium reactor reliability" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell Oklo shares: investors are buying a story that promotes unrealistic timelines and benefits while the company's eventual struggles will only cement nuclear's negative historical perception.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:35:30+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 92.64582, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Street price targets near $10 versus the $22 share price imply roughly 55% downside; further dilution from a $2.7bn capital raise and approaching lock-up expiry compound the asymmetric short setup.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "management_change" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Oklo's $7,000/kg HALEU fuel cost assumption is lowballed by 5x", "NRC license at least 4 years away; 2027 deployment 'beyond optimistic'", "$2.7bn additional capital required; dilutive raise highly likely" ], "scqaSituation": "Oklo is a $3bn pre-revenue nuclear company that came public via Sam Altman's AltC SPAC in May 2024, aiming to design, build, own and operate small sodium-cooled microreactors marketed to AI data centers.", "thesisSummary": "Kerrisdale is short Oklo Inc., a $3bn pre-revenue nuclear SPAC promising 15-50 MWe sodium-cooled microreactors it calls 'powerhouses.' The thesis rests on four pillars. First, Oklo's $7,000/kg HALEU fuel cost assumption — the foundation of its 'illustrative' $40-90/MWh LCOE — is lowballed by ~5x versus the $30,000-40,000/kg industry experts cite, rendering its unit economics 'completely made up' per a former NRC Commissioner. Second, regulatory approval will take at least 4 years; the company's 2027 first-deployment target is 'beyond optimistic' after its 2022 license application was denied. Third, sodium-cooled fast reactors have a documented history of fires, leaks and shutdowns (Monju, Superphénix). Fourth, Citi estimates $2.7bn of additional capital is required, making a dilutive raise inevitable after the parabolic, retail-driven 300% rally. Street price targets near $10 imply ~55% downside.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell or short OKLO shares", "Reject Oklo's illustrative unit economics as not credible", "Discount management's regulatory and deployment timelines" ], "scqaResolution": "Investors should sell or short the stock, recognising that the recent 300% retail-driven rally and Chris Wright Energy Secretary nomination do not change Oklo's fundamental commercialization, capital and regulatory headwinds.", "thesisOneLiner": "Oklo is a $3bn pre-revenue SPAC nuclear story whose 5x-lowballed fuel costs, unrealistic 2027 NRC timeline, and inexperienced 'Nuclear Bros' management mean shares should collapse as reality intrudes.", "precedentsCited": [ "NuScale Carbon Free Power Project termination (cost ballooned $4.2bn to $9.3bn)", "Vogtle Georgia nuclear cost overruns ($20,139/kW)", "EPR Flamanville delays and overruns", "Monju sodium-cooled reactor shutdown (Japan, 1995)", "Superphénix and Phénix sodium leak failures (France)", 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An industry expert advised us the only example of building a reactor in a factory in the US was when Westinghouse constructed the Vogtle reactor in Georgia. Westinghouse built modules for the Vogtle reactors in a factory in Lake Charles, Louisiana which were then shipped to Georgia where they were supposed to fit together “like pieces of Lego.” Unfortunately, the Lake Charles factory failed to build components to nuclear grade specifications properly, shipped faulty modules to the reactor site, and eventually Westinghouse had to build a dedicated rewelding facility to fix problems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:53.418+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "994aac59-8727-4b7a-b8d4-9b99c2c40b8e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.066, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.383 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Another study by the University of Chicago in 2011 concluded even at this aggressive learning rate, a company would have to manufacture an SMR unit every month for over 4 years before the full benefit of learning would provide levelized costs competitive with the upper end of natural gas-fired generation (~$80 MW/h).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:53.418+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b93e3cee-d7da-4e16-9658-68c5d13f96a9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.728 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Now consider that Oklo must drive lower costs through iterative learning without in-house manufacturing capabilities in an industry lacking standardization. Oklo is competing against dozens of other SMR and advanced reactors with varying designs. Culling this herd to a subset for fleet deployment will be crucial within the next ten years to enable larger orderbooks and theoretical NOAK cost benefits to be realized. We think the likelihood of an Aurora microreactor emerging as a preferred option to drive the volumes needed for sustained learning and cost reduction is exceedingly slim.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:53.418+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c330f8a0-e690-4498-8d06-ed1ebf08f396", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Over time, this [Oklo's size and technology] 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We believe there are several problems with Oklo’s unit economics which render them grossly misleading.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5858b5ae-0ee5-4b8f-bf3f-cc43238b6fd1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While, admittedly, differences in technology and design complicates any comparison of costs, for reference Oklo’s 50 MWe NOAK total capital cost of $116m... equates to $2,312 / kW, meaningfully below DOE estimates of $3,600 / kW.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8ddcefad-3c21-4878-a30a-bca670c93312", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I can't see a scenario where they get to $7,000 / kg and I've been making fuel for 45 years.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "40ec84da-55e9-4de8-9006-8e858549d777", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I don't want to slam them... they were goal-seeking [costs]... otherwise it's not viable at all. If they put real numbers of today in there this program would be over.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d8cf2c1-81b8-4503-af24-c2ed71d44d90", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "That [fuel] cost is completely made up from their rear end.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eb33b452-4209-48ce-b482-182174ac2084", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“That [fuel] cost is completely made up from their rear end.” — Former NRC Commissioner; “I don't want to slam them, I mean I know these people, they did their best, but I think at the end of the day I think when you get to the top... it was as you said - they were goal-seeking [costs]...otherwise it's not viable at all. If they put real numbers of today in there this program would be over.” — Former nuclear fuel cycle expert, International Atomic Energy Agency; “I can't see a scenario where they get to $7,000 / kg and I've been making fuel for 45 years.” — Former Managing Director, Westinghouse Electric - UK Fuel Operations", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:16:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0f20-71ed-bdde-9e5455ebb49f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Oklo’s Illustrative Unit Economics Are Not Credible", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47872c5b-79e7-4eba-8808-e26b7b778c3e", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "31165d5e-08f6-437d-9e03-ba7c0c5f6911", "evidence": "The slide critiques Oklo's unit economics, labeling them as misleading and unsupported by industry experts.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:59:58.850369+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "e600e6a9-c6ca-4055-8fd6-1928ceabbc4e", "evidence": "Uses quotes from former NRC Commissioner, IAEA expert, and Westinghouse MD to build credibility.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:52.764+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "authority-citation" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 17, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 5, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "c67ecd24-b26a-42ac-ba29-3231edfb3db6", "matchId": "2c737911-0f33-4a9b-a090-a2bd5d7242c0", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents various challenges facing Oklo's business model, including regulatory and deployment timelines, cost overruns, and reliability issues.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. 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Assumes all fuel is newly fabricated HALEU purchased from a third-party supplier at a cost of $7,000 / kg.\" This is a particularly important claim. Unlike large, conventional, nuclear power plants, where plant costs far outweigh that of fuel, the economics of a 15-50 MWe Aurora powerhouse are extremely sensitive to assumed fuel costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0be2d5eb-660b-4b24-bcb5-71a2272bf65b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.155, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.435 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "According to multiple industry experts, a far more reasonable estimate for fully fabricated HALEU would be between $30,000 - $40,000 / kg, 3x-6x higher than what Oklo has assumed. This range is broadly consistent with an estimate of $32,600 / kg for 19.75% enriched uranium from public policy think tank, Third Way. It is also consistent with a December 2023 figure from the Nuclear Innovation Alliance (a non-profit nuclear energy think tank) which estimated the cost for HALEU in metallic form at $25,725 / kg. Note, neither of these estimates include the cost to fully fabricate raw enriched uranium into fuel elements, like pellets or rods.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95076c20-113f-4f47-bf9e-ef779c4ec147", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.155, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.265 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The illustrative economics for an Aurora 15 MWe unit, for example, anticipates $33m in initial fuel cost ($7,000 / kg X 4,750 kg initial load) which is higher than the $24m for construction of a NOAK plant itself (p.44). Oklo's \"illustrative unit economics\" rests heavily on assumed costs for fuel which doesn't exist commercially at scale in the US and likely won't for another decade. This is encapsulated in the damning quote from the former NRC Commissioner who believes that Oklo is simply making up its fuel cost number. Tellingly, on a slide that includes footnotes for many other key assumptions, there is zero justification for the basis of Oklo's fuel cost assumption.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a08eb7d9-d219-46ad-96a4-41f047c02cc4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.915 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "So, what happens to capital costs, IRRs, and LCOE when fuel costs that are low by \"5x or more\" are replaced with a figure more closely tied to reality? Below we compare Oklo's provided", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b35b378a-a5de-4179-aa1a-86554180d243", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.605 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A nuclear fuel supply expert we asked to independently estimate HALEU costs stated fabrication itself might cost over $10,000 / kg (based on an IAEA study in 2010 which found the cost of test reactor fuel fabrication can range from $10,000 to $30,000 per kg). For the avoidance of doubt, Oklo claims fuel recycling capabilities (which won't exist until the 2030s and for which there is no domestic market, see: risk factor 19) will lower fuel costs by over 80% (p.15) but its $7,000 / kg fuel cost assumption is clearly stated as being for \"newly fabricated HALEU\", not recycled spent fuel.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cb94a70f-53a3-49a1-b1f4-304f3d52d3db", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "to a US Energy Information Administration case study which determined an NOAK facility with six 80 MW SMR modules would cost $8,936 / kW (p.67).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f1df8b18-61f3-478d-81b0-e6c2abdceebb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.61, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.775 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The [national research] labs have a terrible track record of successfully executing on building things, and I know INL is trying to demonstrate value by picking a couple vendors, getting something built, and proving that they are good at working with industry and getting something useful accomplished. They have a history of announcing that they will have a reactor built by such-and-such date, and then never actually building anything at all (NGNP / VHTR, Marvel). None of this changes the fact that Oklo's cost estimate for the initial core of fuel for their reactor design is too low by a factor of 5x or more.\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.644+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "50a040db-2a15-42d2-9bfc-ea7ce70d35d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The [national research] labs have a terrible track record of successfully executing on building things, and I know INL is trying to demonstrate value by picking a couple vendors, getting something built, and proving that they are good at working with industry and getting something useful accomplished. 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null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.626+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "868d2ca5-cc07-42fb-a21a-a9b2e2a2e04e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.185, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.235 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Given the checkered history of sodium-cooled reactors, we think it is unrealistic to think Oklo switches on an Aurora powerhouse for data center customers, who are generally not in the business of experimenting with new technologies and accustomed to \"five 9s\" uptime, without first accumulating years of operating experience. Any data center operator that would deploy an Aurora unit without such validation would incur the costly risk of unexpected/extended shutdowns. Given the lack of proven performance, we are skeptical Oklo’s non-binding LOIs from data centers will convert into meaningful new deployments for the foreseeable future. This view is captured in an October 23rd note from Morgan Stanley which estimated only 1%-3% of all incremental US data center power capacity (~2-5 GWe) through 2035 would be provided by SMRs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.626+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ae6a96bb-7f7f-4fd1-b134-d90e96f30a6f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "demand. Though it runs counter to recent enthusiasm for nuclear as a power source, as described above by Astrid Atkinson (who spent 15 years at Google leading framework infrastructure engineering), the vast majority of data centers demand is not driven by carbon-free baseload needs from Big Tech and will not be supplied by nuclear (conventional or advanced), but rather natural gas fired CCGTs with greater certainty of execution and lower costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.626+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ccd59740-a7d5-4ea7-a32e-4693c5d8df43", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "This view is captured in an October 23rd note from Morgan Stanley which estimated only 1%-3% of all incremental US data center power capacity (~2-5 GWe) through 2035 would be provided by SMRs. — Morgan Stanley, A Nuclear Renaissance for SMRs, October 23, 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:16:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0f20-71ed-bdde-b1683bebf46c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.685 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Morgan Stanley, A Nuclear Renaissance for SMRs, October 23, 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The estimated fair values only represent a best efforts estimate of the potential fundamental valuation of a specific security, and is not expressed as, or implied as, assessments of the quality of a security, a summary of past performance, or an actionable investment strategy for an investor. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This document does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein or of any of the affiliates of the Authors. Also, this document does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. To the best of the Authors’ abilities and beliefs, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable. The Authors reserve the rights for their affiliates, officers, and employees to hold cash or derivative positions in any company discussed in this document at any time. As of the original publication date of this document, investors should assume that the Authors are short shares of the Covered Issuer and stand to potentially realize gains in the event that the market valuation of the company’s common equity is lower than prior to the original publication date. The Authors shall have no obligation to inform any investor or viewer of this report about their historical, current, and future trading activities. In addition, the Authors may benefit from any change in the valuation of any other companies, securities, or commodities discussed in this document. Kerrisdale does not provide investment advice to the readers of its reports. You understand and agree that Kerrisdale does not have any investment advisory relationship with you and does not owe fiduciary duties to you. Giving investment advice requires knowledge of your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance, and Kerrisdale has no such knowledge about you. In no event shall Kerrisdale and the Authors be liable for any claims, losses, costs or damages of any kind, including direct, indirect, punitive, exemplary, incidental, special or consequential damages, arising out of or in any way connected with any information presented in any Kerrisdale report. This limitation of liability applies regardless of any negligence or gross negligence of Kerrisdale and the Authors. You accept all risks in relying on the information presented in this report. The information contained in this document may include, or incorporate by reference, forward-looking statements, which would include any statements that are not statements of historical fact. Any or all of the Authors’ forward-looking assumptions, expectations, projections, intentions or beliefs about future events may turn out to be wrong. These forward-looking statements can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, most of which are beyond the Authors’ control. 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