{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-2cdb791571f2", "slug": "b5e9ae4f10b0", "title": "Lumen Technologies (LUMN)", "subtitle": "Kerrisdale Capital · 2024-08", "author": "Kerrisdale Capital", "date": "2024-08-15 00:00:00", "pageCount": 22, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Lumen Technologies", "targetTicker": "LUMN", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-2cdb791571f2", "slug": "b5e9ae4f10b0", "title": "Lumen Technologies (LUMN)", "rawTitle": "Kerrisdale Lumen LUMN", "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital", "authorName": "Kerrisdale Capital", "authorDisplay": "Kerrisdale Capital", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2024-08-Kerrisdale-Lumen-LUMN.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2024-08-15 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2024-08-15 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 20:35:14+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 22, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Lumen Technologies", "targetTicker": "LUMN", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/b5e9ae4f10b0", "activist_firm": "Kerrisdale Capital", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 128.39104294776917 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 22, "pagesIndexed": 22, "pagesWithImages": 22, "pagesWithMetadata": 22, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 144, "chartCount": 3, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 8, "documentToolMatches": 5, "frameworkMatches": 4, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "b9f28716-cd1f-40de-9796-7e6b461c2aa9", "evidence": "The document follows a problem-agitate-solution narrative, highlighting Lumen's problems, agitating them, and implying a solution (sell or short-sell).", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:33.803177+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 9, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 6, "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "beatId": "def054c1-737a-4489-8757-88ca0494fb13", "matchId": "b9f28716-cd1f-40de-9796-7e6b461c2aa9", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Slides 6-9 highlight Lumen's operational and financial challenges", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 13, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 10, "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatId": "87347697-7409-4573-92a8-c8ce89c9b4ee", "matchId": "b9f28716-cd1f-40de-9796-7e6b461c2aa9", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Slides 10-13 further emphasize Lumen's problems and their implications", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 22, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 14, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "d49d6538-14f9-4c29-8afc-3765cd457077", "matchId": "b9f28716-cd1f-40de-9796-7e6b461c2aa9", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Slides 14-22 provide an implied solution (sell or short-sell) and supporting data", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "fdbef985-7a89-48b2-beca-37b487f2f55c", "evidence": "Slides 6-9 imply that not selling or short-selling Lumen could lead to significant losses", "position": 0, "objective": "Highlight the cost of inaction for Lumen's investors", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:33.953314+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 13, "from": 10, "loop": { "name": "40_mece_breakdown", "slug": "40-mece-breakdown", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-763c-765e-8b68-6ee3ae1ef184", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage", "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Consulting Framework", "categorySlug": "consulting-framework" }, "matchId": "1863130f-4fd2-405d-919d-9b0bd3822187", "evidence": "Slides 10-13 provide a detailed analysis of Lumen's challenges", "position": 1, "objective": "Break down Lumen's problems into manageable parts", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:33.990317+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 22, "from": 14, "loop": { "name": "42_hypothesis_test", "slug": "42-hypothesis-test", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Strategy validation, due diligence, research presentations", "canonId": "019dd956-76fd-7577-8bcd-d7d39f7c13a8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Hypothesis -> Test 1 (Supports/Refutes) -> Test 2 (Supports/Refutes) -> Conclusion (Validated/Pivoted)", "description": "State a hypothesis upfront, then systematically prove or disprove it with evidence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Consulting Framework", "categorySlug": "consulting-framework" }, "matchId": "f579302c-9b73-4f8a-a40d-879f0b9a3020", "evidence": "Slides 14-22 provide data and analysis to support the hypothesis", "position": 2, "objective": "Test the hypothesis that Lumen's stock is overvalued", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:34.027687+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "c4b3f0a9-376b-463d-9766-59cc92bb8c3e", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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"cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "d10bacf2-6de2-4ae1-ab4d-184c61820a4c", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Company Overview' and contains a financial summary table, company description, and valuation metrics.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:02.213497+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4b63-72d5-9734-da757d91ca61", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A condensed view of the entire argument on a single slide / block.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "a73082d2-1b51-47c4-a391-8b9fcd6dbcbd", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Recent Developments' and contains paragraphs describing recent announcements and their impact on the company's stock price.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:00:02.397354+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "dbb130fc-a084-48cd-ba58-90c23e284cdf", "evidence": "Structured as a high-level investment thesis summary with supporting arguments and disclaimer.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.699+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 1, "frameworkName": "short-thesis-summary" }, { "matchId": "0efd77b1-cd8b-46f9-9fea-0a12b07105dc", "evidence": "Contrasts current AI-driven marketing claims with historical company plans from 2022/2023.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.329+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction" }, { "matchId": "8803abe8-6f72-41f9-b66b-b9d465ca15fb", "evidence": "The slide explicitly states 'we have opted for a simplified sum-of-parts approach' to value the business.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:56.227+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "sum-of-parts-valuation" }, { "matchId": "57967a52-83b4-4b4b-a83d-930f28027c54", "evidence": "The text directly addresses and refutes specific points from an SEC complaint.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:56.338+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "frameworkName": "preempt_rebuttal" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Kerrisdale prose-style short report (research_note), not a slide deck. Strong SCQA structure with memorable title 'AI-N't Gonna Fix This Mess'. Argument is narrative/marketing-spin critique plus valuation overstretch rather than accounting-fraud exposure; fraud_exposure tag applied loosely per corpus convention for short reports. Heavy use of third-party voices (former Lumen/Level 3 executives, Cogent CEO Dave Schaeffer, Bank of America analyst) to undermine management's AI framing. Stake % not disclosed beyond 'short positions'. Date set to mid-August 2024 — report references August 12, 2024 Oppenheimer conference quote. Uses both DCF and trading comps to triangulate $0 equity value.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "LUMN up 400% from ~$1.50 to over $7 in weeks on AI announcements", "metric": "Stock price move" }, { "detail": "fell -8.6% y/y in 2Q24, worst in company history", "metric": "Core Business segment revenue growth" }, { "detail": "shrank -1.1% in 2Q24 despite being management's growth bucket", "metric": "'Grow' category revenue growth" }, { "detail": "-13% reported in 2Q24, -15% y/y organic", "metric": "Adjusted EBITDA growth" }, { "detail": "4.5x in 2024E including finance leases, rising to 5.1x by 2027E", "metric": "Net leverage" }, { "detail": "6.8x 2024E, near 7.0x peer Verizon/AT&T despite worse fundamentals", "metric": "EV/EBITDA multiple" }, { "detail": "~$21m/year over 20-year IRU — <1% of current EBITDA", "metric": "PCF recurring EBITDA contribution" }, { "detail": "$1.18/share total, of which only $0.42 is recurring O&M", "metric": "PCF per-share value" }, { "detail": "~$1.26bn cash prepayment drives 2024 FCF guidance raise", "metric": "Implied 2H24E PCF prepayment" }, { "detail": "$19.0bn consolidated debt, $17.8bn net", "metric": "Total debt" }, { "detail": "10% (~$430m/yr), only 1/7th of excess capacity Corning cites", "metric": "Corning capacity reserved" } ], "closingAsk": "Don't buy the AI hype — Lumen's turnaround story is an optical illusion and the recent share pop is overdone.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:35:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 128.39104, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Sum-of-parts DCF yields $0 fair value per share versus ~$6 trading price — Lumen is fundamentally insolvent once $17.2bn net debt and $1.9bn underfunded post-retirement obligations are deducted from a $17.5bn EV.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "$5bn in PCF deals nets only $1.18/share — it's funding, not an AI growth story", "Core Business revenue fell -8.6% in 2Q24, the worst quarter in company history", "At 7.0x EV/EBITDA Lumen trades like Verizon/AT&T despite $19bn debt and declining EBITDA" ], "scqaSituation": "Lumen Technologies is a $26bn secularly declining US telecom with 350k miles of fiber, $19bn of debt, and a new CEO (ex-Microsoft Kate Johnson) trying to reposition the company as an AI-infrastructure play.", "thesisSummary": "Kerrisdale is short Lumen Technologies, a $26bn market-cap telecom whose stock rallied 400% on a string of AI-tinged announcements — $5bn in Private Connectivity Fabric contracts with Microsoft and hyperscalers, a Corning supply deal, and $7bn in vague 'sales opportunities.' Kerrisdale argues the $5bn headline is misleading: Lumen is effectively a general contractor on a $4.5bn construction project, and the recurring O&M revenue works out to only ~$21m/year in EBITDA (<1% of current EBITDA) or $1.18/share in total value. Meanwhile underlying business deterioration is accelerating — core Business revenue fell -8.6% in 2Q24, the worst in company history, and adjusted EBITDA fell -13% y/y. Trading at 7.0x EV/EBITDA in line with Verizon and AT&T despite $19bn of debt, 4.5x leverage, and negative free cash flow, Kerrisdale's sum-of-parts DCF pegs fair value at $0 — Lumen is fundamentally insolvent.", "primaryDemands": [ "Discount the $5bn PCF contracts — worth only ~$1.18/share, not $6+", "Discount the $7bn in vague 'sales opportunities' — early-stage, non-hyperscaler buyers", "Recognize core Business revenue is deteriorating (-8.6% in 2Q24, worst in company history)", "Reject in-line multiple with Verizon/AT&T given $19bn debt and negative FCF" ], "scqaResolution": "Short the stock: recognize PCF cash is working-capital prepayment, the $7bn 'sales opportunities' pipeline targets non-hyperscaler enterprises in early-stage talks, and doubling intercity fiber was already planned since 2022.", "thesisOneLiner": "Lumen's 400% AI-fueled rally is an optical illusion: $5bn in PCF deals is construction-contractor funding worth ~$1/share, masking an insolvent, secularly declining telco with $19bn debt.", "precedentsCited": [], "scqaComplication": "A $5bn Private Connectivity Fabric announcement sent shares up 400%, but the deal is a construction-contractor engagement worth ~$1.18/share while core Business revenue fell -8.6% and EBITDA -13%.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 3, 11, 14, 18 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Verizon", "AT&T", "Frontier Communications", "Microsoft", "Meta", "Amazon", "Cogent Communications", "Corning", "Comcast", "Spectrum Enterprises", "Zoom", "Palo Alto Networks", "Fortinet", "Cisco Webex", "VMware", "Versa Networks" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "sum_of_parts", "dcf", "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "This is a classic short-seller research note cover/summary page.", "function": "summarize", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/fKjpmtc1LgiPqe2euNrGLJc2W8cRxaeymg4KjP0Qsb8/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9iNWU5YWU0ZjEwYjAvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 37, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 677, "nDataPoints": 10, "notes": "This is a classic short-seller research note cover/summary page.", "elementsJson": [ "logo_grid", "headline_text", "subtitle_text", "paragraph", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:54.699+00", "seconds": 2.854, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-2cdb791571f2/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-2cdb791571f2", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-2cdb791571f2#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-2cdb791571f2.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Awarding $5 in share gains to what we estimate is only $1.18/share in total value, from Lumen's role as general contractor on a massive construction project, is just silly.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:32:48+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-25b7-709e-b8be-b1b4da5619dd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Disclaimer: As of the publication date of this report, Kerrisdale Capital Management, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Kerrisdale”), have short positions in shares of Lumen Technologies, Inc. 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"x": 0.13, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "list", "text": "EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...3\nCOMPANY OVERVIEW...4\nRecent Developments...5\nAccelerating Revenue Declines: Not Just a Legacy Problem...6\nGrowth is Fundamentally Challenged...8\nCUSTOM NETWORKS ECONOMICS 101...9\nWhat Does $5bn in PCF Contracts Really Mean for Lumen?...10\n$7BN IN “SALES OPPORTUNITIES”...12\nSPINNING AN AI STORY...13\nDoubling Intercity Fiber is Not a New Plan...13\nReserving Corning Capacity is Marketing Hype, Optical Fiber is Not Scarce...13\nVALUATION...14\nCONCLUSION...14\nAPPENDIX I: 2024E GUIDANCE UPDATE...15\nAPPENDIX II: MASS MARKETS STRATEGIC OPTIONS...16\nAPPENDIX III: DCF ANALYSIS...17\nAPPENDIX IV: TRADING COMPARABLES...18\nFULL LEGAL DISCLAIMER...19", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", 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I had conversations with two previous CEOs who both said they enabled us to compete with them and they wish they had never sold us fiber...\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.711+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e3ce4f40-94ba-447f-b00b-a91a6337469f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The $5bn deal is about funding, not AI growth\" — Bank of America Global Research, August 8, 2024; \"Lumen actually regretted selling fiber to us. I had conversations with two previous CEOs who both said they enabled us to compete with them and they wish they had never sold us fiber...For the past 20 years, Lumen has been very reluctant to sell fiber. 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Given the large pre-payment in 2H24E without a similarly sized increase in capex or any change in cash taxes, in 2025 we expect there will be a “catch-up” in these cost items which will drive more muted free cash flow next year. We expect this will drive negative free cash flow in 2026E as costs continue while prepayments begin tailing off (see financial summary and capitalization on p. 4 of this report). 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Given the decrepit state of its balance sheet and the funding gap Lumen’s CFO", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:56.726+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9e73e85c-c103-42a5-851d-d01f1731615e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Kerrisdale analysis, Lumen Form 8-K Ex 99.3 – Modeling Constructs for Indefeasible Rights of Use, 2Q24 earnings call.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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You understand and agree that Kerrisdale does not have any investment advisory relationship with you and does not owe fiduciary duties to you. Giving investment advice requires knowledge of your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance, and Kerrisdale has no such knowledge about you. In no event shall Kerrisdale and the Authors be liable for any claims, losses, costs or damages of any kind, including direct, indirect, punitive, exemplary, incidental, special or consequential damages, arising out of or in any way connected with any information presented in any Kerrisdale report. This limitation of liability applies regardless of any negligence or gross negligence of Kerrisdale and the Authors. 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Also, this document does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. To the best of the Authors’ abilities and beliefs, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable. The Authors reserve the rights for their affiliates, officers, and employees to hold cash or derivative positions in any company discussed in this document at any time. As of the original publication date of this document, investors should assume that the Authors are short shares of the Covered Issuer and stand to potentially realize gains in the event that the market valuation of the company’s common equity is lower than prior to the original publication date.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:58.199+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c3011770-e5d1-4291-99de-12de780095be", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:58.199+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "debcfff1-65d5-461d-b28b-503d221b2d61", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.094 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "many reasons that have nothing to do with the Authors’ estimates of the securities’ fair values. The estimated fair values only represent a best efforts estimate of the potential fundamental valuation of a specific security, and is not expressed as, or implied as, assessments of the quality of a security, a summary of past performance, or an actionable investment strategy for an investor.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:58.199+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e23c60a3-5750-4728-a125-1327a3404826", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.476 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "The Authors shall have no obligation to inform any investor or viewer of this report about their historical, current, and future trading activities. In addition, the Authors may benefit from any change in the valuation of any other companies, securities, or commodities discussed in this document.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:58.199+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fa24c20b-664e-477c-8e53-d2a1e27a0cf2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.01, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.948 }, "kind": "other", "text": "Kerrisdale Capital Management, LLC | Tel: 212.792.7999 | Email: info@kerrisdalecap.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Other", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa90-743c-8bf6-20d1fbe82b6d", "version": 1, "description": "Fallback when no canonical kind applies." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Unclassified", "slug": "unclassified", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05ca-77db-81fb-db7d4234bbc0", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "unclassified", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:58.199+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "de92cf47-68f4-475b-a6a3-8132b4c14e8f", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 22, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 14, "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatId": "d49d6538-14f9-4c29-8afc-3765cd457077", "matchId": "b9f28716-cd1f-40de-9796-7e6b461c2aa9", "beatType": { "name": "Solution (Provide relief)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0fee-73e9-9ae5-799c7f3895cd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Slides 14-22 provide an implied solution (sell or short-sell) and supporting data", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Resolution", "slug": "resolution", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-045d-703b-8dd7-e92aba3ba91b", "version": 1, "description": "How the deck ends. 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In that complaint, the SEC effectively alleged that (i) by making public communications arguing that certain securities are longs or shorts, and (ii) then very soon after those communications were made public, trading in the opposite direction of those communications... that Left was committing securities fraud.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.517+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1d107c75-32ff-4f6f-9e5c-2cd4f0eea60b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.875 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To us, providing a hypothetical but potentially inaccurate trading intention, upon each communication of opinion about a security, doesn't make much sense. 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Furthermore, as can be seen in the disclaimers above, Kerrisdale discloses that it will transact in the securities covered herein following any communication...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.517+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bcaa8638-1608-4948-9c8d-056a082bad15", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.785 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "But, in light of this complaint, and following its logic, perhaps it would help investors to just assume the following: assume we have shorted lots and lots of the stock of the Covered Issuer immediately prior to publication, and assume we will buy lots and lots of the stock of the Covered Issuer to cover our short position immediately subsequent to publication.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:57.517+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e1dcc97a-6211-49f6-9c52-f1b51b9a5fb5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "On July 26, 2024, the Securities and Exchange Commission (\"SEC\") brought a complaint against Andrew Left, who runs Citron Research. 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