{
  "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1",
  "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-11aaa4d87540",
  "slug": "cc16939986ec",
  "title": "Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADMS)",
  "subtitle": "Kerrisdale Capital · 2017-11",
  "author": "Kerrisdale Capital",
  "date": "2017-11-01 00:00:00",
  "pageCount": 0,
  "kind": "research-note",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "targetCompany": "Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc.",
  "targetTicker": "ADMS",
  "document": {
    "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-11aaa4d87540",
    "slug": "cc16939986ec",
    "title": "Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADMS)",
    "rawTitle": "Adamas Pharmaceuticals Inc. ADMS",
    "authorId": "53_Kerrisdale_Capital",
    "authorName": null,
    "authorDisplay": "Kerrisdale Capital",
    "kind": {
      "slug": "research-note",
      "label": "Research note"
    },
    "sourceType": {
      "slug": "short_seller",
      "label": "Short seller"
    },
    "fileName": "2017-11-Adamas-Pharmaceuticals-Inc.-ADMS.pdf",
    "sourceUrl": "https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Adamas-Pharmaceuticals-Inc.-ADMS.pdf",
    "sourceDate": null,
    "presentationDate": "2017-11-01 00:00:00",
    "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 20:29:27+00",
    "status": "ready",
    "pageCount": 0,
    "orientation": "portrait",
    "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
    "targetCompany": "Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc.",
    "targetTicker": "ADMS",
    "metadata": {
      "activist_firm": "Kerrisdale Capital Management",
      "origin_corpus": "contrarian",
      "redownloaded_at": "2026-04-29T12:33:11.53+00:00",
      "extraction_seconds": 420.95341968536377
    }
  },
  "coverage": {
    "pageCount": 0,
    "pagesIndexed": 0,
    "pagesWithImages": 0,
    "pagesWithMetadata": 0,
    "imageCoveragePct": 0,
    "metadataCoveragePct": 0,
    "componentCount": 0,
    "chartCount": 0,
    "metricSlides": 0,
    "toolMatches": 1,
    "documentToolMatches": 1,
    "frameworkMatches": 0,
    "arcMatches": 0,
    "beatMatches": 0,
    "loopMatches": 0,
    "patternMatches": 0,
    "storymakersMatch": false,
    "scoreAvailable": false,
    "reviewAvailable": false,
    "activistThesisAvailable": true,
    "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false,
    "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false
  },
  "blocks": [],
  "matches": {
    "arcs": [],
    "beats": [],
    "loops": [],
    "tools": [
      {
        "tool": {
          "name": "Sum of parts",
          "slug": "sum-of-parts",
          "status": "active",
          "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses",
          "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125",
          "version": 1,
          "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f",
          "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.",
          "familyLabel": null,
          "categoryName": null,
          "categorySlug": null
        },
        "agent": null,
        "layer": "document",
        "agents": null,
        "matchId": "002ae173-aa60-4181-9f00-373cec3719d2",
        "evidence": null,
        "pageRefs": null,
        "priority": null,
        "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses",
        "confidence": null,
        "extraction": {
          "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00",
          "model": "unknown-legacy",
          "runId": null,
          "seconds": null,
          "promptVersion": null
        },
        "pageNumber": null,
        "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n  \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at",
        "antipattern": null,
        "cardinality": null,
        "narrativePurpose": null
      }
    ],
    "frameworks": [],
    "patterns": []
  },
  "storymakers": null,
  "score": null,
  "review": null,
  "activistThesis": {
    "tone": "analytical",
    "notes": "Contrarian LONG thesis from a firm best known for short reports — Kerrisdale defends a heavily-shorted (33%) name rather than attacking it. Classic sum-of-parts pharma reformulation argument built on precedent-transaction analogies (Procysbi, Ampyra, Vyxeos). PDF file appears truncated at exactly 1,048,576 bytes (1 MiB) and XRef is corrupted; pdfinfo/pdftotext fail. Content was recovered by manually decompressing content streams, so page_count could not be verified (skeleton value retained). Author not explicitly named on cover; Kerrisdale's lead analyst on ADMS was Sahm Adrangi but I did not see an explicit signature in the recovered text, so author_name left null.",
    "kpisCited": [
      {
        "detail": "$1,641mm total / $65 per share",
        "metric": "Gocovri NPV (Parkinson's)"
      },
      {
        "detail": "$95mm / $4 per share",
        "metric": "Namenda-related royalties"
      },
      {
        "detail": "$1,578mm / $62 per share (expected value $31)",
        "metric": "Gocovri NPV (MS indication, risk-adjusted 50%)"
      },
      {
        "detail": "$293mm / $12 per share (expected value $6)",
        "metric": "Vimpat XR NPV (risk-adjusted 50%)"
      },
      {
        "detail": "$3,606mm / $143 per share unadjusted; $106 risk-adjusted",
        "metric": "Grand total fair value"
      },
      {
        "detail": "$3.5 billion",
        "metric": "Addressable market — US levodopa-induced dyskinesia"
      },
      {
        "detail": "33% of shares outstanding, ~7 days' trading volume",
        "metric": "Short interest"
      },
      {
        "detail": "64%",
        "metric": "Discount to Gocovri-only value"
      },
      {
        "detail": "~30-50% better based on cross-trial comparisons",
        "metric": "Gocovri efficacy vs. generic IR amantadine"
      },
      {
        "detail": "~280,000 US patients (after excluding wheelchair-bound)",
        "metric": "MS walking-difficulty addressable population"
      }
    ],
    "closingAsk": "Recognize that market skepticism has reached absurd levels, deeply undervaluing Adamas and presenting a highly attractive balance of risk and reward — Adamas deserves to be a multi-billion-dollar company.",
    "extraction": {
      "at": "2026-04-22 20:29:27+00",
      "model": "unknown-legacy",
      "runId": null,
      "seconds": 420.95343,
      "promptVersion": null
    },
    "scqaReward": "Baseline (Gocovri-only) fair value is $69/share; including risk-adjusted pipeline, Adamas is worth $106/share and unadjusted $143/share — versus ~$25 today, implying roughly 4x upside.",
    "thesisTypes": [
      "undervaluation",
      "multiple_rerating"
    ],
    "top3Reasons": [
      "Gocovri is the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, worth $1.6bn / $65 per share",
      "33% short interest reflects misplaced skepticism; repackaged-drug precedents (Procysbi, Ampyra, Vyxeos) prove the playbook",
      "MS and Vimpat XR pipeline add ~$1.9bn in unrecognized option value"
    ],
    "scqaSituation": "Adamas is a small-cap biotech whose lead drug Gocovri — a high-dose, extended-release formulation of generic amantadine — just won FDA approval as the only treatment for levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease.",
    "thesisSummary": "Kerrisdale is long Adamas Pharmaceuticals (ADMS), a small-cap drug maker trading near $25 despite owning Gocovri, the first and only FDA-approved treatment for levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's patients. The market dismisses Gocovri as repackaged amantadine, but Phase 3 data show it works 30-50% better than the generic immediate-release form and addresses a $3.5 billion market. Applying precedents like Raptor/Procysbi, Acorda/Ampyra, and Jazz's $1.5bn acquisition of Celator/Vyxeos, Kerrisdale values Gocovri at $1.6bn ($65/share). Two Phase 3-ready pipeline assets — Gocovri for multiple sclerosis walking difficulties and Vimpat XR for epilepsy — add another ~$1.9bn. Summing the parts gives a risk-adjusted fair value over $100/share, four times the current price. Short interest of 33% reflects skepticism Kerrisdale believes will unwind as launch execution and pipeline data validate the platform.",
    "primaryDemands": [
      "Market should re-rate ADMS to reflect Gocovri's commercial potential",
      "Recognize two overlooked Phase 3-ready pipeline assets (Gocovri for MS, Vimpat XR)",
      "Close the 64% discount to Kerrisdale's Gocovri-only fair value"
    ],
    "scqaResolution": "Go long ADMS: Gocovri will reach blockbuster status in a $3.5bn US dyskinesia market, while two overlooked Phase 3-ready pipeline assets — Gocovri for MS and Vimpat XR for epilepsy — compound the upside.",
    "thesisOneLiner": "Kerrisdale is long ADMS: Gocovri, the only FDA-approved drug for levodopa-induced dyskinesia, plus an MS and Vimpat XR pipeline, is worth over $100/share versus ~$25 today.",
    "precedentsCited": [
      "Raptor Pharmaceuticals / Procysbi (delayed-release reformulation)",
      "Acorda Therapeutics / Ampyra (repurposed old drug, ~$500mm annual revenue)",
      "Jazz Pharmaceuticals acquisition of Celator / Vyxeos ($1.5bn for repackaged cytarabine+daunorubicin)",
      "Forest Laboratories / Namenda XR and Namzaric licensing deal"
    ],
    "scqaComplication": "Shares trade at a 64% discount to Gocovri's standalone value, with 33% short interest, because investors dismiss it as a repackaged generic despite Phase 3 data showing 30-50% better efficacy and durable benefit.",
    "narrativeInterest": 4,
    "notableSlidePages": [
      3,
      13,
      21,
      27,
      28
    ],
    "peerCompaniesCited": [
      "Raptor Pharmaceuticals",
      "Acorda Therapeutics",
      "Jazz Pharmaceuticals",
      "Celator Pharmaceuticals",
      "UCB (Vimpat)",
      "Allergan / Actavis (Namenda)",
      "Forest Laboratories"
    ],
    "valuationFrameworks": [
      "sum_of_parts",
      "precedent_transactions",
      "multiple_comparison"
    ],
    "visualCraftInterest": 2
  },
  "pitchdeck": {
    "metadata": null,
    "profile": null
  },
  "slides": [],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": []
}