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NIO trades at 17-18x NTM EV/Sales versus Tesla at 9x — the largest premium to TSLA in history — despite holding only 3% of the Chinese NEV market while Tesla already outsells NIO two-to-one in China. Tesla's Made-in-China Model Y is expected to launch near CN¥275,000 (~$41,000), well below the $56-58k level Deutsche Bank flagged as dangerous, directly undercutting NIO's ES6 and EC6 hatchbacks. Citron also flags a speculative retail shareholder base with short interest at a 2-year low, and notes Buffett-backed BYD trades at just 3x sales on $22bn of revenue. Investors should rotate out, enjoy profits, and look for the next disruptive technology.", "primaryDemands": [ "Rotate out of NIO and take profits", "Redeploy capital into other disruptive technology names" ], "scqaResolution": "Rotate out of NIO and take profits; redeploy capital into the next disruptive technology, since current buyers are trading three letters on a screen rather than owning a business with defensible economics.", "thesisOneLiner": "NIO trades at 17-18x NTM EV/Sales — double Tesla's multiple — as a Made-in-China Model Y near $41K threatens the ES6/EC6; Citron closes its 2018 long at a $25 price target.", "precedentsCited": [ "Citron's November 2018 NIO long recommendation at $7", "BYD (Buffett-backed) trading at 3x sales on $22bn revenue" ], "scqaComplication": "NIO now trades at 17-18x EV/Sales — double Tesla's multiple — yet holds only 3% Chinese NEV share, and Tesla's Made-in-China Model Y at ~$41K directly undercuts NIO's ES6 and EC6 hatchbacks.", 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"kind": "paragraph", "text": "Consider this, last week DB was guessing at what levels Model Y Tesla pricing would hurt NIO.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:45:40.178+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5294a216-dc9e-4f62-b8fb-f634c15cf84d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To put things into perspective, let's look at 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This could potentially hurt near-term sentiment and slow NIO’s order book momentum considering it would be a direct competitor to NIO’s EC6 and ES6. — Deutsche Bank. Recent estimates from securities firm Tianfeng Securities are pointing at something quite remarkable for Tesla’s ongoing ramp in China. As noted by the firm in a recently-released research report, Tesla’s strategy of passing its cost savings to customers could result in the Made-in-China Model Y starting at a very reasonable price of CN¥275,000 (about $41,000). — Tianfeng Securities. 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