{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-a1171d7d86a0", "slug": "71e665b79a9a", "title": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)", "subtitle": "Muddy Waters Research · 2024-11", "author": "Muddy Waters Research", "date": "2024-11-20 00:00:00", "pageCount": 48, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.7777778, "targetCompany": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.", "targetTicker": "ELF", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-a1171d7d86a0", "slug": "71e665b79a9a", "title": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. 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Core rhetorical move: pairing customs import data with reported inventory/revenue to build a divergence chart, then triangulating three independent methods (SKU GMV analysis, purchased product basket weighing, supplier data) to prove the per-kg value cannot plug the import gap. Management quotes are placed next to contradicting charts (slide 7). No explicit stake disclosure beyond 'short' posture; no price target given (Muddy Waters boilerplate declines to provide one). The ChatGPT-generated cover image is an unusual stylistic choice for a short report. 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At 80%, the accumulated landed costs would be ~$22.7 in CY2022 and $20.0 in CY2023.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:31.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "61f272bf-1e70-4e88-b11e-abb0cd4fad86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Inventory costs per SAIC: $20.0/kg", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:13:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0f1b-7682-849c-96564b663af6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At the right, we apply a 70% share to suppliers' CY22 and CY23 revenue. We add transportation costs of $1/kg and a duty rate of 25%, yielding $20.0/kg in CY22 and $17.6/kg in CY23.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:31.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "309997b1-c217-4678-985d-a011cb90d88b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We estimate ELF's COGS based on its having a 70% share of its suppliers' sales.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:31.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c4457193-66dd-4117-8fc8-bc2e8af753fb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Based on discussions with the top China suppliers, we believe ELF accounts for approximately ~60-75% of their sales. Estimate ocean freight, import, and local delivery costs are based on avg loads per 40' container.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Comparing CY24 to CY23 SKU GMV: We looked at GMV by SKU provided by a leading consumer data analytics service (not Nielsen), and found that new for CY24 SKU contribution to GMV would not have caused imported inventory value / kg to materially increase\n2. Product Mix Sampling: We selected a product mix consisting of over 70% of the GMV sold at the top retailer in autumn 2024 (per analytics), individually weighed them, and calculated a weighted average weight based the top selling products' unit weight including packaging. The result is $18.1 / kg\n3. 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In other words, the SKUs that comprised ~99% of tracked GMV in CY23 are still being sold in tracked channels (retail and online) in CY24.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:27.128+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00fe6f64-def4-47bb-822c-5e617890d5ec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "list", "text": "CY 2024's top 50 SKUs contributed over 70% of total GMV in CY24 and 62% of GMV in CY23.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:27.128+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f7abcf6-93c8-40d6-854f-9598aaf55825", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "list", "text": "40 new SKUs in CY24 have contributed 4.8% total GMV in CY24, with 5 of these 40 new SKUs contributing 4.5% of the total tracked CY24 GMV.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:27.128+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5acd3cb8-d369-4d23-aac3-9a5a00165a87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We used consumer purchase data to identify and compare top SKUs' contributions to GMV between CY23 and CY24. 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We selected the top selling products... 2. We purchased a basket of products... 3. We use ELF's disclosed $6.5 retail ASP. 4. We then calculated the weighted average import value... 5. 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"active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:28.017+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4b4534fe-bf0a-4f73-af26-b4b27f0cba6d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "- Charlie Munger", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:28.017+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eb6486d5-4d54-4101-94a2-cd5c1e36b5e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Show Me the Incentive and I'll Show You the Outcome\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:28.017+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, 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