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Muddy Waters is short the credit (bonds) rather than equity; ticker CPIPGR refers to the bond issuer handle. The deck leans on forensic property-by-property investigation: site visits, realtor listings, Prague Building Land Price Map, and JLL appraisal deconstruction. No named author — firm-only signature. No explicit 'closing ask' slide; the appendix ends mid-analysis on Polygon/MQM. Villain critique stays institutional (CPI PG management, JLL appraisers, CPI FIM) rather than calling out a specific individual. The CEO-quote-contradiction flag is set true because the deck cites CPI's 1H 2022 earnings-call language about intentional vacancy and 1H 2023 management-report occupancy claims to expose inconsistency with realtor data.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "CPI PG ~+65% vs. vdp German office price index roughly flat", "metric": "Berlin top-5 property PP value change (2019-1H23)" }, { "detail": "Rose from €103M (Jun 2018) to €199M (YE 2022), +93.2%, with GLA unchanged at 49,000 sqm", "metric": "Reuchlinstrasse 10-11 PP value" }, { "detail": "CPI PG reports 93.7% occupancy; realtor listings imply ~14.3% vacancy (126% above reported)", "metric": "Reported Prague office occupancy vs. realtor listings" }, { "detail": "CPI PG reports 93.0% occupancy; realtor listings imply ~14.0% vacancy (~2x reported)", "metric": "Reported Warsaw office occupancy vs. realtor listings" }, { "detail": "€276.9M at €1,378/sqm vs. MW public-data average of €690/sqm — ~100% overvalued, ~€138M", "metric": "Bubny Landbank carrying value" }, { "detail": "€68.1M booked before construction started; additional €31.9M in 2022", "metric": "Polygon BC & MQM Czech 2017-2021 fair-value gains" }, { "detail": "27.4% of GLA and 28.7% of PP value (€2.8B)", "metric": "Prague + Warsaw share of CPI PG" } ], "closingAsk": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:04:01+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 121.92509, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "If valuations and occupancy are marked to realtor listings and public land-price data, CPI PG's asset base shrinks materially — ~€138M on Bubny alone, ~€87M on Reuchlinstrasse, and billions across a €2.8B Prague/Warsaw segment — pressuring bond prices lower.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Berlin office values rose ~65% while German vdp index barely moved — valuations defy market", "Reuchlinstrasse 10-11 nearly doubled to €199M despite derelict condition and no GLA expansion", "Realtor listings show Prague/Warsaw vacancies ~14%, more than double CPI's reported ~6-7%" ], "scqaSituation": "CPI Property Group is a €19.2 billion Central/Eastern European real-estate issuer whose portfolio of Berlin, Prague, Warsaw and other offices, hotels and landbanks underpins its bonds, with Prague and Warsaw reported as its highest-occupancy markets.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters is short the credit of CPI Property Group (CPIPGR), arguing that its €19.2 billion investment property and hotel portfolio is materially overvalued and its reported occupancy materially overstated. 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We selected these properties because assessing whether, and to what extent, they are overvalued is significantly less subjective than with most of the rest of the portfolio. Three of these properties are land that was undeveloped at the time CPI PG took seemingly egregious gains. Additionally, one building in Berlin for which CPI PG has doubled the carrying value stands out as an obvious overstatement because the capex CPI PG has invested pales in comparison.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:54.02+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0890d241-0879-4144-a4b7-b3253a5d17b1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Muddy Waters is short the credit of CPI Property Group (\"CPI PG\"). As shown on the preceding slide, CPI PG's Berlin office portfolio appears significantly overvalued based on the divergence in its valuation from overall German market trends. This Part 2 addresses CPI PG's valuations of its purported €19.2 billion investment properties and hotels is significantly inflated. We show that CPI PG seems to significantly inflate the reported vacancy rates in its Prague and Warsaw office portfolios, which seemingly is used to justify inflated asset values. To illustrate the brazenness of CPI PG's valuation results and techniques, this report focuses on four granular examples of properties that CPI PG carries at a combined value of €627 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:54.02+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2222b993-b34b-40ae-b722-e779daa76486", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We also show that CPI PG seems to significantly mislead investors about the states of its Prague and Warsaw occupancy levels. Prague and Warsaw purportedly have the highest and third highest occupancy levels in its office portfolios. These apparent overstatements imply that the valuations for properties in these markets (€2.8 billion) are inflated.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:54.02+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "512f58fb-4d90-4a6c-89ae-16480b71cfd3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "4 CPI PG H1 2023 Management Report, Pg. 16.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Several other German properties' valuations also produced red flags associated with their condition, vacancies, and/or aggressive timing of new gains and lack of negative adjustments as the property market cools; however, assessing overvaluations on these is more subjective in our view.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:55.165+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7c0bacd1-ec40-4048-8805-d86c7d4ac866", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As shown supra, while German office property valuations have declined -10% since mid-2022, CPI PG's Berlin office valuations remain unchanged. 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We believe these realtor listings reflect current and near-term office occupancy levels in Warsaw which are significantly lower than what CPI PG reports to bondholders.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:56.195+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ab0938c3-d84d-49a5-b768-57c49f0882e8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Reference listing websites: https://www.officefinder.pl/offices-for-rent.html, https://www.remobile.pl/en, https://en.savills.pl/, www.hamilton-commercial.com, https://finne.pl/en, https://www.officelist.pl/en, etc.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Listings at CPI PG's German company, GSG, show another key German property Aqua-Höfe with an eye-wateringly high vacancy level of ~38%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:58.97+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2c267dc-2089-48cb-9ad9-0758751deaa0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The drop in occupancy in Prague and Berlin was minor and partially reflects our strategy of refurbishing or developing certain properties, which might be vacant or partially vacant for a short period. — CPI PG, 1H 2022 earning call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:56:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b071-3e6a661366d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1. https://www.gsg.de/en/gewerbehof/aqua-hoefe/ ... 2. 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Vienna, Budapest, Bucharest, and Other combine to equal over 50% of CPI PG's total properties, 41% of its total GLA, and 29% of the PP value (€2.9 billion). 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CPI also discloses JLL's appraisal of the fair value for the Bubny landbank—€1,223/sqm, which despite its clear flaws, produces a valuation 13% lower than CPI PG's carrying value. We estimate JLL's valuation was inflated by approximately 77%.3", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "567a0da9-0a04-4337-8aae-8ca2a2f5160c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our comp database consists of publicly available data for 70 submarket land properties, totaling over 110,000 sqm. Our database average value is approximately €690/sqm, which is approximately half of CPI's €1,378/sqm carrying value. We therefore estimate that CPI PG inflates the Bubny landbank PP value (or carrying value1) by ~100%. Note that the comps appear to all have zoning approved for development, while Bubny still does not.2", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "59b1a24f-a5ea-4691-b645-bf736255d27f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "CPI PG seems to have taken massive, unfounded fair value gains on its largest landbank asset in Czechia—the Bubny Landbank (\"the Prague Brownfield\"). We estimate the value has been inflated by ~100% of market, or ~€139 million. This manipulation is based on JLL valuation that uses six cherry-picked comps.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.014+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cd287253-294a-441f-ae8d-adbeba9ce2f0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.88, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 CPI FIM 2022 Management Report, p. 16 & Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements p. 24. The Group's Property Portfolio is reported at the carrying value. These values are used to report the Investment Properties' values and the valuation gains. 2 CPI FIM 2022 Management Report, Pg. 35-36. 3 CPI FIM 2022 Management Report, Pg. 35.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The site is located in Prague’s Bubny neighborhood, a former industrial area across the Vltava from Old Town. The landbank was still under a construction ban in 2022—and we have seen no indication that the ban has since been lifted.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:56.229+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4133bec-1134-401c-b31c-2f109d773da4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.75, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: CPI PG 2022, Annual Report", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:56.229+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a8e7f2e8-6df4-4bb5-a829-8c9427d75c66", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 CPI PG Management Report 2022, Pg.56\n2 CPI FIM Consolidated Financials 2022, Pg. 36. As a brownfield the landbank may require clean-up or remediation.\n3 CPI FIM Consolidated Financials 2022, Pg. 21.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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(Note: Bubny is 20% held by CPI FIM and 80% held by CPI's German subsidiary GSG Europa Beteiligungs Gmbh.) 2 https://app.iprpraha.cz/apl/app/cenova-mapa/index.html?lang=en", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5288fc41-1a12-491d-b5aa-680df50b82d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "JLL uses a weighted average, showing inputs but providing neither the calculation nor sufficient information to recreate it. For FY2022, the area-weighted average value of JLL’s six properties with recent transactions equals €896, but JLL’s range weighted average is €1,223/sqm: 32.1% higher. The weighing factors have multiples at the low end of 0.85x for development status (e.g. construction ban) to 1.21x for market improvement since the transaction. To get to a 32.1% increase, it seems the weighting system must have heavily skewed towards the upside while setting the weighting of any downside factors to near zero.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cf47b4b7-3e32-4e96-a22b-43681824c95c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "JLL made its property valuation estimate by comparing the Bubny Landbank to six other properties in the area (less than 1/10th of those used in our estimate). Three of the six properties are valued between €2,100 and €3,000/sqm (CZK ~50,000 to CZK 73,000), on par with the Prague Building Land Price Map’s most expensive. For example, properties around Wenceslas Square and the popular Pařížská commercial street are only as high as CZK 69,870.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "efb95104-4fb2-4284-9104-5a4ec115d9d8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 See \"Vivion Investments S.á.r.l.: A Multi-Billion Euro Shell Game\". Published December 14, 2022. 2 CPI FIM 2022 Management Report, Pp. 35-36.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 26, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a table to highlight the disparity between larger, lower-value sites and smaller, higher-value sites used in the valuation.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 72, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1515, "nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "The slide uses a table to highlight the disparity between larger, lower-value sites and smaller, higher-value sites used in the valuation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.395+00", "seconds": 3.189, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-8456188f4be9/26", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-8456188f4be9", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-8456188f4be9#slide-26", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-8456188f4be9.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Given the enormous difference in our results, we believe the simplest explanation for JLL’s valuation findings is that three of the six comparable properties were cherry-picked, with several smaller, higher valued properties employed to push up the average value/sqm.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:56:16+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b071-e594d69fca8a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Transacted price per sqm (EUR)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:56:16+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b071-e995b59a299b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "JLL's three larger, but lower value sites have values of €400-€900/sqm, closer to our findings for land values in comparable plots lacking significant, recent redevelopment. Obviously, recently developed land is a poor comparator for undeveloped, brownfield land (under a construction ban, no less).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "101c19d8-004c-40ff-a3d9-02ee38aae27f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Appraisal for Bubny as at 31 December 2022\nBubny is a land bank with a size over 202 thousand square meters and is located near the Prague's city center. The majority of the site is currently not used. As at 31 December 2022 and 2021, a valuation of the land bank was conducted by external valuation expert Jones Lang La Salle (\"JLL\") using the comparable method. This method was based on 6 recently executed land site transactions in Prague, included in below table:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b3a45660-e185-45ce-b66f-ca63ef974a07", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Given the enormous difference in our results, we believe the simplest 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"attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "237da844-f3d2-47a5-a67f-1b2006067e0d", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "f03b7687-6895-4a4e-87c8-fdab175aa21d", "evidence": "The slide explicitly accuses the subject of 'cherry-picking' data to skew valuation results.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 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Location: directly SE of Bubny landbank. Land price / sqm: CZK 10,000 / €413. Condition: Old buildings, gas station on site predates 1985.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "072e076d-793b-4b29-b28b-03556fbeb0ee", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.35, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Note: These two sites face one another diagonally.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c1a78669-21fc-4f44-b476-53394dadc2c1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Valuation – Example Data Points", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.396+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b1b224f9-40f1-4f2b-a873-52b49c4029a0", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 35, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 19, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "d34ca497-39be-407a-a2ff-7624d8b7d838", "matchId": "8909992f-4f37-431c-bf12-661070086031", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck presents evidence of overvaluation, including the case of the Bubny landbank and Polygon BC and MQM Czech.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "746f8629-c861-44eb-8d8e-01bfa74e08f1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.47, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Map and street view for Example 4", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dc2c35e2-3eb4-4af4-92e2-d5850f0db8cc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Example 3: Plot 356 (in yellow)\nLocation: NE of Bubny landbank\nLand price / sqm: CZK 14,700 / €608\nCondition: Older, rundown, more traditional design.\nSignificance: Land value below the mean and median values.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0a477795-6fb7-4256-a452-dfa827d1cbbb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Example 4: Plot 2415/32 (in yellow)\nLocation: NE of Bubny landbank\nLand price / sqm: CZK 23,500 / €971\nCondition: Developed in 2017-2018–excluded from Method 2\nSignificance: This land is among the highest valued around Bubny's perimeter.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a47b09a8-9e07-4db3-ab32-f367474a9167", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "subtitle", "text": "Above left: Image from the Prague landbank, orientation north. Above right: Image from Google maps, orientation looking south-west.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "82d821ee-2793-42e7-8f16-c6131385a3ce", "version": 1, "description": "Header-zone supporting text near the title (= ex body.description with bbox)." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1eda1716-6892-41fa-914b-e2fa0a51d13c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "subtitle", "text": "Above left: Image from the Prague landbank, orientation north. Above right: Image from Google maps, orientation looking east.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "82d821ee-2793-42e7-8f16-c6131385a3ce", "version": 1, "description": "Header-zone supporting text near the title (= ex body.description with bbox)." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8a591bb8-d6b2-4b32-bd2c-640218f04bcb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Valuation – Example Data Points", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.971+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b9e1296-2857-49e6-b136-65bb4255e483", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 35, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 19, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "d34ca497-39be-407a-a2ff-7624d8b7d838", "matchId": "8909992f-4f37-431c-bf12-661070086031", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck presents evidence of overvaluation, including the case of the Bubny landbank and Polygon BC and MQM Czech.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:56:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b074-30221c9c06af", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Map and street view for Plot 1448", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.684+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a200db7c-58f7-4951-896c-bb682abea2d8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Map and street view for Plot 1244", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:57.684+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b23cdbe2-3929-4771-b1e7-90533d48786a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.54, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Example 6: Plot 1448 (in yellow)\nLocation: W of Bubny landbank\nLand price / sqm: CZK 18,000 / €744\nCondition: Older, communist-era residential development.\nSignificance: Land value above the mean and median values.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": 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We used the Prague Building Land Price Map1 to sample land plots neighboring the Bubny Landbank. (We inquired with local investigators about how data from the Land Price Map was used and were told that users “consider the map to be accurate and useful.”) Land price data is not available for all plots. The Bubny site, along with some other aging industrial and commercial sites, lack data. The majority of smaller commercial and residential sites have listed prices. These priced sites include both developed and un- or under-developed land. All the sample properties were from the Holešovice District. The furthest was only three city blocks away. Our estimates use a much larger dataset—70 sites—than that used by JLL. The plot locations are identified in our valuation table. 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It is maintained by the Prague authorities, and, according to our independent on-the-ground investigators in Czechia, it is generally considered reliable. The Land Price Map's methodology can be found fully elaborated in Decree No. 32/1998 as amended in Decree No. 18/2021 (and all amendments preceding it) in the records of the City of Prague.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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In CPI PG's response to our criticism of these transactions, it argued that the entity was owned by J&T Finance Group. As far as we're concerned, the point stands and the entity was obviously a proxy for Vitek.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:58.876+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "90b3200e-0b64-45bc-8904-2dcc52e71f70", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In 2017, Vitek completed the roundtrip, selling the holdcos back to CPI PG for €50.9 million. Vitek's profit on the roundtrip was €30.9 million, even though neither parcel of land had undergone any development.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:58.876+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b732c202-1a40-417b-a72c-f869aa194aa6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 Polygon BC's landbank is located in Prague 9. MQM Czech's is located in Ritka, a small town about 16km southeast of Prague. 2 CPI PG December 8, 2023, response, pg. 11, 13. The parent company of Nas Prvy Realtny is Poštova banka (now 365 Bank), which is ultimately controlled by the J&T Finance Group SE, a.s. This also makes J&T Banka, a.s. a sister company of Poštova banka and Nas Prvy Realtny.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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These gains appear disconnected from any physical improvement to the landbank holdings of either holdco—neither MQM Czech nor Polygon BC had been fully permitted, nor had they started construction when the gains were taken.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:59.706+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7311939d-50e1-493e-b202-3d18ec8d1926", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When CPI PG sold the vacant land to its proxy J&T in 2014, the valuation used the comparable method. When CPI then bought them back from J&T and Vitek in 2017, CPI PG “shifted to the future development valuation (FDV) method,” based on “the prospect of earning permits.”2", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:59.706+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "76266750-e3d4-45c5-bd30-9ad458c3e9e3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Polygon BC took a suspect €53.0 million fair value gain in 2021 alone, the year before construction started on the first of its six buildings at the development Kolbenova Park. (Some construction has since commenced.) The €53.0 million gain seemingly represents much of the projected profit for the entire six-building development, yet still strikes us as unrealistic.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:59.706+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7ecdc442-2c0c-4041-84b6-5233522aff47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "By 2022, MQM Czech had nearly tripled its value from 2017, rising from €13.7 million to €38.9 million—but according to CPI PG only received a permit in 2022,1 and had not yet begun any construction as of Fall 2023.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:46:59.706+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "caa8a5d7-4e21-4456-a7b1-8566314fcb4c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 See Dec 8 response pp. 10-12 CPI PG response, Dec 8, 2023, p. 12\n2 Ibid.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We think that no development gains should have been booked until 2022 at the earliest and even then, the gains should be limited to only what is fully permitted and under construction; otherwise, such large paper gains severely distort CPI PG’s true financial picture.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0d0622da-ff2f-4894-866e-0583d08049d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Based on CPI PG’s response that the prior years’ gains were justified on similar grounds – prospects for potential future development – we believe all €68.1 million in gains booked prior to any construction start (2017-2021) at both Polygon and MQM seriously abuse if not directly contradict its own accounting policies.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1a2a15c9-51fa-478c-9108-c0abb670f989", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our investigators’ 2023 site visits found only Building C under construction. As our estimates indicate, the 2021 gains likely book most of the revenue for the development. The additional €17.4 million gains booked on Polygon in 2021 are even more questionable.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3b477e45-c50b-4b45-b44f-23ff95a1320c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Because construction and sales at Polygon BC had not even started in 2021, we regard this gain as very aggressive at the very least. It seems to indicate further efforts by CPI PG to inflate the value of assets on its book.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3f232486-2c77-46a5-b935-6d04a5fc8529", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe the €53.0 million gain booked for Polygon BC in 2021 likely represents most of the future profits to be recognized upon the completion and sale/leasing of multiple, if not all, of the buildings in the complex. Based on online sales price data for the Kolbenova development, we estimate the total revenue from Building C will be ~€80 million. (Naturally, this number excludes construction, development, administrative, or legal costs.)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e1aab706-cdd3-4bcb-ada5-a22b458a89ab", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 Calculated from sale and pricing data available at https://klbnypark.cz/en/pricelist and https://www.propertymaps.cz/en/obchody/prague/afi-home-kolbenova-209 and advertised retail space leasing rates of €16/sqm at: https://www.propertymaps.cz/en/obchody/prague/afi-home-kolbenova-209.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ff242e7f-02f8-43a3-b39a-3457c1234792", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Polygon BC and MQM Czech – Gains Booked Disregard CPI PG’s own Valuation Policies, contd.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ef4c8785-9d87-41dd-96db-7d14c385f17d", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "47907a03-0e8c-4cca-9f85-1b4c0cb6865b", "evidence": "The slide systematically compares booked gains against physical construction status to allege accounting manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:02.289+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 47, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 50, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 36, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "6050a9c8-83b5-49a1-871d-da1dcb45c199", "matchId": "8909992f-4f37-431c-bf12-661070086031", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The final slides summarize the key takeaways and reiterate the thesis.", "position": 3, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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This is the first of the buildings planned for the Kolbenova Park development.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:56:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b073-97b2d2d2ace4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Grid of site renderings with annotations pointing to construction status.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Infographic", "slug": "infographic", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe26-750c-9d7d-9f34e21324e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "infographic", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:00.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "027b36d1-89ad-4de3-a092-627cad97b5bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Only one building, Building C, is currently under construction. This is the first of the buildings planned for the Kolbenova Park development. 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