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Titled 'Sunrun: ESG is for Everybody Screws the Government' — memorable framing but no cover slide or deck polish. Three-pillar structure (Subscriber Value overstatement / IRS tax-base inflation / ABS bankruptcy exposure) is the rhetorical spine. Relies heavily on anonymized former-employee interviews (Executives A/B, Former Novogradac Executive E, Solar Executive C) rather than named whistleblowers. Company/management critique is institutional rather than personal — no specific CEO villain named, though CFO turnover and insider selling ($205.9M) are flagged. No explicit target price or closing ask, typical of a short research note: the 'ask' is implicit (sell/short). Strongest specimen features: crisp three-pillar SCQA, Company-vs-MWC comparison tables (pages 3, 14), and the industry-cost peer-gap chart on p.18.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "MW $3.65/watt vs RUN $4.85/watt — 33% overstatement", "metric": "Fair Market Value per watt (FMV)" }, { "detail": "MW $2.96/watt vs RUN $4.99/watt — 68.9% overstatement", "metric": "Income Approach FMV per watt" }, { "detail": "MW $3.93/watt vs RUN $4.93/watt — 25.7% overstatement", "metric": "Cost Approach FMV per watt" }, { "detail": "MW adjusted $3.79 vs RUN $4.99 — 24% haircut at midpoint", "metric": "Subscriber Value per watt (Q4 2021)" }, { "detail": "MW $426M–$1.0B vs RUN $4.45B — 85.4% haircut at midpoint", "metric": "Net Earning Assets (Q1 2022)" }, { "detail": "~$948M in disallowable ITCs/tax losses monetized since 2018", "metric": "Potential IRS ITC claw-back" }, { "detail": "$668M obligation RUN's model ignores ($1,700 per system)", "metric": "Panel-removal NPV liability" }, { "detail": "RUN assumes 0.5% vs MW 0.75%", "metric": "Annual panel degradation" }, { "detail": "RUN $15/kW vs MW $24/kW", "metric": "O&M cost per kW" }, { "detail": "RUN 0% vs MW 3.75%", "metric": "Default/cancellation rate" }, { "detail": "RUN ~20% vs MW 15% (industry midpoint)", "metric": "Developer margin in Cost Approach" }, { "detail": "$205.9 million", "metric": "Insider net selling since July 2020" }, { "detail": "Third CFO since January 2020", "metric": "CFO turnover" }, { "detail": "RUN exceeds industry by $1.66/watt; RUN -12% vs industry -16% 2015-2020", "metric": "Creation Cost vs industry installed cost (2020)" } ], "closingAsk": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:52:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 118.822266, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Net Earning Assets fall 77.5%–90.4% (to $426M–$1.0B from $4.45B), a ~$948M IRS claw-back threatens solvency, and the ABS/warehouse chain could collapse — supporting a short that could be existential for RUN equity.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "undervaluation" ], "top3Reasons": [ "RUN inflates Subscriber Value/Net Earning Assets via aggressive renewal, churn and O&M assumptions", "RUN bamboozles the IRS by inflating PPA tax bases — $948M potential ITC claw-back liability", "ABS securitizations are exposed to a RUN bankruptcy because panel-removal liabilities are unreserved" ], "scqaSituation": "Sunrun is the largest U.S. residential-solar company, funding growth by selling PPAs/leases to homeowners and monetizing tax credits through Partnership Flip structures with Tax Equity Investors, warehouse lenders and ABS.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters is short Sunrun (RUN), arguing the company is an uneconomic business propped up by three shaky pillars: exaggerated Subscriber Value and Net Earning Assets metrics, growth funded by inflating tax bases on PPAs from $3.38 to ~$5.00 per watt to monetize oversized Investment Tax Credits, and ABS issuances exposed to a RUN bankruptcy because panel-removal obligations are unreserved. Using former-employee interviews, appraisal comparables, and Kroll's own Athena 2018-1 haircuts, MW adjusts Subscriber Value down 24% to $3.79/watt and Net Earning Assets down 85% to $648.9M (range $426M–$1.0B vs. RUN's $4.45B). 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Models...4\nWhy RUN's Investor Models and Income Approach Tax Model Don't Hold Water...6\nRenewal Rate Overstatement...6\nFactors that Affect Renewal Rate: Roof Condition...7\nFactors that Affect Renewal Rate: Obsolescence...7\nRenewal Rate Aggression Conclusion...8\nRUN's Models Ignore the Estimated $668 million Liability of System Removal...9\nUnderstated O&M Expenses of $15 / kW vs $24 / kW...9\nUnderstated Annual Panel Degradation Rate of 0.5% vs 0.75%...10\nUnderstated Default / Cancellation Rate of 0% vs 3.75%...10\nDouble Counting the ITC...10\nAdjusting RUN's Subscriber Value, Net Earning Assets, and Income Approach Tax Model...13\nWhy RUN's Cost Approach Tax Model Doesn't Hold Water...15\nConstruction in Progress Manipulates Results...16\nIncluding Ineligible P&L Costs...16\nDouble Counting Profit From Acquired Third-Party Systems...16\nAggressive Developer Margin of 20% vs 15%...16\nAdjusting RUN's Cost Approach Tax Model to $3.93 / Watt...17\nRUN is at Risk of a Funding Gap 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We explain our assumptions, and why we believe they are far more realistic than RUN’s, herein.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7a5e953-6fff-42b2-99c1-e0b6482fddd6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN has bamboozled the IRS by inflating the tax bases of its Power Purchase Agreements. Working with pliable appraisers, it turns systems for which arms length buyers claim tax bases of $3.38 / watt into approximately $5.00 / watt. We believe that this inflation is impermissible, especially considering that part of the basis inflation comes from including the value of the anticipated tax benefits in the basis itself.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b9bcae38-d415-4d85-b38a-cd1103f6e780", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“That $3,000 [per customer] of renewal value is not real value. You should be very skeptical there... and you know, I would say there's significant creative license taken in calculating those renewal values. They're nowhere near what they should be; they're not being conservative... and in those numbers, in fact, it's the opposite. They've been quite aggressive, right?”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4c464257-d25b-421d-900f-7e69d2c1200f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Now the in terms of the non-GAAP metrics like Subscriber Value that are used to basically explain to the Street and to investors, what are the underlying economics at a customer level... those numbers are completely, I wouldn’t say they’re made up numbers, but there's no validation... You should be highly skeptical.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fa450ef2-7821-4215-bd0e-c1c3a2dbbfa0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "That $3,000 [per customer] of renewal value is not real value. You should be very skeptical there... and you know, I would say there's significant creative license taken in calculating those renewal values. They're nowhere near what they should be; they're not being conservative... and in those numbers, in fact, it's the opposite. They've been quite aggressive, right? — Former RUN Executive A", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-97dcd546428e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 Bloomberg data\n2 Interview with Former RUN Executive A, October 2021", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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RUN is more exposed though that it is just as dependent on abusing government subsidies with its unduly aggressive models.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "53f13829-7940-47f5-8257-87d04c0da775", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Then when you get IRS audited, there’s nothing much they can say. Of course, they do not have the solar expert[s] to do it.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a18570f4-8f42-4c6e-871b-3274b564f0a8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A whistleblower filed a complaint with the IRS in 2018 detailing this abuse... we estimate that RUN could be liable for as much as $948 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fa46de7d-812c-46aa-8174-25991d5d05e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Appraisers, they usually discard the comparable sales method, on the theory that it's hard to find good data, which is a little hard to believe in the solar rooftop market, since most of these same companies make direct sales to consumers. — Interview with Renewable Energy Legal Expert D, October 2021", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-13e1d03c9d03", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Interview with Renewable Energy Legal Expert D, October 2021; Interview with Former Novogradac Executive E, November 2021; We estimate that the direct sales price approximates the Market Approach valuation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e4f561b8-dd85-41d6-9856-b2ce3a3b0f0d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.23, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Fair Market Value Decomposition ($/watt) | Company | MWC | Overstatement\nIncome Approach | 4.99 | 2.96 | 68.9%\nCost Approach | 4.93 | 3.93 | 25.7%\nSimilar Transactions | 3.38 | 3.38 | -\nFMV | 4.85 | 3.65 | 33.0%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "26b9dee0-fd15-4a18-8baf-ab8924889528", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Shaky Pillar Three – Issuing ABS that Could be Exposed to a RUN Bankruptcy", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "afa73825-fe45-4b7f-b225-6a8b47e302c3", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "05252934-e118-43e4-a9a4-821523d623ca", "evidence": "The slide explicitly discusses whistleblower complaints, IRS audit risks, and inflated valuation models.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.181+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 3, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "358aa995-8d3a-4be6-a9db-98b2e0204d03", "matchId": "42b76524-bd39-48b1-b1c2-cfa6551af787", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Muddy Waters is short Sunrun Inc. 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We believe that a far more realistic approach would yield a value of approximately $3.65 / watt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-2de5e6a7af4e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Renewal Rate: RUN assumes that 90% of subscribers renew after the 20- / 25-year contract period through 30 years... Panel Removal Cost: RUN assumes zero cost... Maintenance Cost: RUN assumes maintenance costs of $15 / kW.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:51.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c18e6f4-7f58-41bf-9e03-f7c8de2da3d3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN utilizes two different sets of models to significantly manipulate values for investor and tax incentive purposes, respectively the “Investor Models” and “Tax Models.” The Investor Models and one of the Tax Models, the “Income Approach” use a discounted free cash flow analysis. The net result of these models is to value RUN Power Purchase Agreements (“PPAs”) at ~$4.75 to $5.00 / watt. We believe that a far more realistic approach would yield a value of approximately $3.65 / watt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:51.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cd799462-40ca-4779-82c6-16d9634d87f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "6 RUN claims its Net Earning Assets represent the company’s proportional claim on PPA cash flows... 7 RUN 2021 10-K, p. 59. 8 We forecast higher churn in Years 21 and 26...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We estimate that this recursive approach to valuing the tax benefits adds approximately $.40 / watt, or 13.5%, to the Income Approach component of the tax basis.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "07850e5e-17d6-4120-a0b3-3d13bf98ddd6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In addition, we believe a 15% developer margin is more appropriate, while we understand from a former RUN finance executive that RUN uses an approximate 20% developer margin.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2302adff-8228-4dff-a92c-f53e5433eeac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Contract Default and Cancellation: RUN assumes no customer defaults or cancellations. We believe that a 3.75% default rate over the contract period is more realistic.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d964e82-93c6-4c88-b220-86432b4407c9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The second approach is the \"Cost Approach.\" RUN discloses (non-GAAP) customer \"Creation Cost\"... For Q1 2022, RUN's reported Creation Cost was $4.11 per watt, to which we add a 20% developer margin to estimate RUN's claimed Cost Approach value at $4.93 per watt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dc211653-a5a4-4335-9e81-a35461dd60de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Panel Degradation Rate: RUN assumes an annual panel degradation rate of 0.5%. We believe that 0.75% is in line with industry norms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.869+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ddb10498-3149-42e4-8543-6e8f19282cf1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "9 Interview with Former RUN Executive A, November 2021\n10 Former RUN Executive A cited a developer margin for cost approach valuations of approximately 20%.\n11 Interview with Former RUN Executive B, November 2021", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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RUN's business is too new for there to be any empirical evidence to support these assumptions, and we are highly skeptical that this value will materialize.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba79-77ee72b93f0b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN's Investor Models and Income Approach Tax Model are discounted free cash flow valuations. However, it is apparent that the assumptions used for renewal rates, system removal costs, operating & maintenance costs, panel degradation rates, and default rates are problematic. We believe that RUN and its appraisers assume at least 90% of PPAs will renew after the contract period for a total use period of 30 years. This seemingly fails the laugh test when considering factors that cause churn, such as roof replacements, and system obsolescence. They also assume that there is no system removal cost because customers will forgive the removal obligation. We use a company favorable assumption that the NPV of the cost to remove a system is approximately $1,100. RUN assumes O&M costs of $15 / kW, whereas Kroll Bond Rating Agency and we assume $24 / kW.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.662+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00c4ac68-e9ee-4293-92fb-5ec5f0ed560b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The common theme from industry experts is that the financings on which RUN depends to conduct its business are too complex for the IRS to understand. In the words of a former solar industry appraiser who now funds renewable energy projects:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.662+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5eaff094-d8d9-4ce8-8665-7e9af517d6ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.535 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Both RUN's Investor Models and the Income Approach assume that no more than 10% of customers will terminate upon maturity at the end of the 20- or 25-year contract periods. We believe this is unduly aggressive because customers' roofs will need to be replaced, and the systems will be obsolete. Further, there is a significant risk that RUN's post-contract electricity rate assumptions are materially high.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.662+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e1723530-2a62-4cef-b4e9-cfdb1a78b00b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.64 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The result of these renewal assumptions is to add approximately $3,000 in value for each PPA customer. RUN's business is too new for there to be any empirical evidence to support these assumptions, and we are highly skeptical that this value will materialize. A former RUN finance executive concurs:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.662+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e1cc87a9-1626-42a6-be22-6b2e424c3e09", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I don't think that the IRS has solar experts, so when they audit us, we [were] basically educating [them on] what's going on.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.662+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "32b937fd-e1ca-4649-876f-84618dc2429c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "That $3,000 [per customer] of renewal value is not real value. You should be very skeptical there... and you know, I would say there's significant creative license taken in calculating those renewal values. They're nowhere near what they should be; they're not being conservative... and in those numbers, in fact, it's the opposite. They've been quite aggressive, right?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:52.662+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8210200d-4782-4ece-87e2-7de1ae10850e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"I don't think that the IRS has solar experts, so when they audit us, we [were] basically educating [them on] what's going on.\" — Former solar industry appraiser. \"That $3,000 [per customer] of renewal value is not real value. You should be very skeptical there... and you know, I would say there's significant creative license taken in calculating those renewal values. They're nowhere near what they should be; they're not being conservative... and in those numbers, in fact, it's the opposite. 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We use a company friendly undiscounted assumption of $1,700 (NPV ~$1,100) per system removal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a3f2645c-94bf-44f5-8c24-8906d1e97dcc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We adjust RUN's balance sheet and non-GAAP metrics due to its failure to reserve for panel removal liabilities, which we estimate are at present value $668 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7fd57e2-a70f-49ea-a96c-9bc78ae2f8ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In contrast to RUN, Sunnova recognizes an Asset Retirement Obligation that applies to ~50% of its installed PV Systems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d3e7ecdb-7235-43de-988d-cd1d69ba6b2a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN ignores this contractual liability... We estimate that the NPV of an average roof removal is roughly $1,100.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e691a3bf-8bcf-48c5-8fef-93ec80515a25", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN is contractually obligated to remove the PV System... RUN justifies its lack of panel removal reserves by stating that if customers do decide to remove or replace panels, they will enter into a new contract with RUN.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.318+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f18ad247-1d19-4bcb-a903-d7fef6c86fc6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The liability is initially measured at fair value based on the present value of estimated removal costs... corresponding asset retirement costs are capitalized as part of the carrying amount of the solar energy system and depreciated over the solar energy system’s remaining useful life. — Sunnova (via 202110-K, p. 88)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-44186824f2df", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "19 Communication with RUN Investor Relations, November 2021\n20 Conversation with RUN Investor Relations, December 2021\n21 Source: NOVA 202110-K, p. 88", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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RUN's appraisals then combine both ineligible property and eligible property alike in the DCF and call it eligible equipment for purposes of calculating the ITC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.29+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3ed46afc-2a4a-43dd-95bd-c4c57f6a18b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe that calculating ITCs in a recursive manner contradicts the intent of the legislation that created the ITC. ITCs are meant to subsidize or help offset equipment value, not increase it. Three solar executives explained to us that even if eligible property should not include the value of the ITC, solar financing vehicles have simply evolved this way with no IRS challenge to date. 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The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2015, Code Section 25D, states that the tax basis for ITCs is equal to the project's 'qualified solar electric property expenditure'.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5b83a13d-42a4-4ded-a93d-909e7c8dd255", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "24 https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021/02/f82/Guide%20to%20Federal%20Tax%20Credit%20for%20Residential%20Solar%20PV-%202021.pdf", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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MW Adjusted; PPA cash flows 2.51 1.96; Depreciation tax benefits 0.95 0.72; Income Approach FMV (Equipment Value) 3.46 2.69; State & Local Incentives 0.27 0.27; ITC 1.26 0.83; Subscriber Value (Membership A + B Transfer Value, Q4 2021) 4.99 3.79", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Valuation table", "slug": "valuation", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-034c-74ed-b5c8-22b5e6ac196d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "valuation", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.63+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f454d8c-310c-4245-b77c-7bb26b6365fa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Adjust Down RUN's Net Earning Assets by 85.4% at the Midpoint", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.63+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "757a15c1-cb6d-4286-9bb8-ff7c3cc20d56", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Estimate Sunrun Overstates Its Income Approach FMV by 29% and Subscriber Value by 32%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Action title", "slug": "action-title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb31-734c-a0f5-a3935b73135d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "action-title", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.63+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b93218bc-8172-4474-b4d1-6f556b75df94", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "cf489be1-5d4b-47b0-b96c-139ebc5df28c", "matchId": "42b76524-bd39-48b1-b1c2-cfa6551af787", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "RUN's business practices and financial modeling are critiqued in detail.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 16, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a critical tone to challenge the company's valuation methodology, specifically citing IRS guidelines and comparing their findings to a Kroll repo", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 84, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 2577, "nDataPoints": 7, "notes": "The slide uses a critical tone to challenge the company's valuation methodology, specifically citing IRS guidelines and comparing their findings to a Kroll report.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "bullet_list", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:58.959+00", "seconds": 8.811, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e/16", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e#slide-16", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe that RUN uses disallowed costs as part of its tax basis. Our Adjusted Cost Approach valuation suggests that RUN’s Cost Approach Tax Model valuation is overstated by 25.7%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-cab251522e89", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Installation; RUN-Built Systems; Channel Partner Systems; Sales & Marketing; General & Administrative; Platform Services Credit (netted out in the company's calculation)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:58.959+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fda41a52-4009-4222-bb9f-0e64f809b6bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Cost Approach FMV: $4.93", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-ce03d44ec1e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.14, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "These figures are close to the figures and haircuts calculated by Kroll in its Athena 2018 pre-sale report. Our valuation is lower than Kroll's because Kroll does not appear to have reviewed a PPA that lays out all of the financial obligations running from RUN to the homeowner (e.g., PV System removal). Kroll applied a total haircut of 49.3% with no value placed on the non-contracted cashflows. With these non-contracted cashflows considered the haircut is 40.4%. 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We believe that RUN uses disallowed costs as part of its tax basis. Our Adjusted Cost Approach valuation suggests that RUN's Cost Approach Tax Model valuation is overstated by 25.7%. RUN discloses customer \"Creation Cost\", which roughly approximates the Company's Cost Approach valuation after the addition of a developer margin. 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Because the Income Approach should yield this result lower than the direct selling price, as we show infra, to be company favorable, the Tax Models should average RUN's direct selling price with a (more intellectually honest) Cost Approach. (Averaging the $3.38 / watt direct selling price with our adjusted Cost Approach yields a tax basis of only $3.65 / watt.)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:58.959+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "be27a9b1-a00f-4ffe-a522-3889f82ecef5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.73 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "However, RUN includes costs in Creation Cost that are seemingly not permitted by IRS guidelines for Cost Approach valuation: Construction in Progress, certain P&L Costs, and Profit from Acquired Systems. RUN, we understand, adds an inappropriately large Developer Margin of approximately 20%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:58.959+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0aa1186-7947-44de-88ce-a29b473f42f2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "29 RUN Q3 2021 Historical Model... 30 Conversation with RUN Investor Relations, December 2021 31 RUN Q2 2021 Historic Financial and Metric Model", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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There is a matching cost to revenue, or a matching cost to systems, problem. RUN does not match the costs to their system flow.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba77-e44c43344f47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.018, "w": 0.478, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.609 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Aggressive Developer Margin of 20% vs 15%", "attrs": 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"5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:55.384+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6fad2c75-acd1-4e34-947b-b48d77161a51", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.018, "w": 0.443, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Construction in Progress Manipulates Results", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:55.384+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8397db2f-90ad-4c6a-ae92-140310b9c0f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.018, "w": 0.285, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.363 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Including Ineligible P&L Costs", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": 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In our opinion, RUN has little interest in selling systems for $3.38 per watt, but that is the market price.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.957+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "10b6f5af-13a0-455d-b00b-501e27cb4676", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.131 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Adjusting for the above costs that we believe are prohibited yields an adjusted Cost Approach valuation of $3.93 / watt. Even this could be generous. 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However, RUN's self-reported hard costs seem significantly higher than industry norms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.48+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "92d9f22e-aab3-40e4-a7fd-f5af6c47f888", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.295 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Industry cost deflation highlights RUN's outlier status. Panels, inverters, and other solar components became cheaper over the period, declining 16%. However, RUN's Creation Cost decreased only 12% over the period from 2015-2020, exceeding industry costs by $1.66 per watt in 2020:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.48+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aa025a1c-bb97-416d-ad8e-6c964b6908d9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.092 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN's business objective appears to be to enter into as many PPAs as possible and mark them at the inflated rates.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:53.48+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bfa79bea-3714-4191-b24f-ef3a21e47dfe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.645 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Sources: RUN Supplemental Cost Memos, FY2017-FY2019; RUN Earnings Press Releases, Q1 - Q4 2020; NREL U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks: Q1 2016 - Q1 2021.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The IRS claws back RUN's historical ITC and there is no determination of fraud... If the IRS states that exaggerated FMVs are prohibited on a go-forward basis, RUN will have to fill an estimated shortfall of approximately $0.50 / watt... The IRS determines that there is no issue. 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If this audit results in an adverse final determination, we may be subject to an indemnity obligation to our investor, which may result in certain limited out-of-pocket costs and potential increased insurance premiums in the future.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:55.475+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "76beecbe-a013-4809-8d61-5d793e0558d3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It is also important to note that where an arms-length relationship cannot be established, the entire concept of the FMV may be jeopardized. In 2011, the IRS noted that “a stated cost may be inconsistent with the eligible property’s true tax basis “where a transaction is not conducted at arms-length by two economically self-interested parties or where a transaction is based upon ‘peculiar circumstances’ which influence the purchaser to agree to a price in excess of the", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:55.475+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a9f597a4-4f05-44b2-813c-6e53580e9dc8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Yeah. Now to be sure, I have seen companies who I thought were very aggressive just in their tax basis. I couldn't name names, but I've seen some pretty aggressive stuff... I believe at least one of them, it's sort of an open secret in the industry that I've heard from a couple of tax lawyers, at least one of them is going through a whole series of audits right now.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:55.475+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "25f00526-754b-4b52-a591-e04a297bae18", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Yeah. 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"textChars": 1677, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a quote from a Norton Rose Fulbright memo to support the thesis that tax equity investors in solar may be viewed as lenders rather than partners.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.654+00", "seconds": 3.52, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e/22", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e#slide-22", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-4517b3b2214e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We find that the Partnership Flip is a convenient, non-arms-length conduit for overvaluation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:16+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba78-bac93e886a4a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A former RUN executive stated that the economics from the Tax Equity Investor's perspective look much more like those of a financing, while RUN referred to tax equity as “effectively debt.” We believe that such characterizations may pose a significant issue for IRS audit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2868ce51-0102-4502-9844-838622f893d6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In our view, RUN's financings are exactly this kind of cautioned transaction: One in which economic parties with mutual interests come together to create the illusion of an elevated FMV, and where, RUN effectively never relinquishes control of the asset.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "43d27a0e-cc9a-4495-b0a4-45094e724f46", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We find that the Partnership Flip is a convenient, non-arms-length conduit for overvaluation. RUN effectively transfers the vast majority of the value associated with the 20- or 25-year PPA to itself, while the Tax Equity Investor takes the ITC and tax losses and generally recoups its investment by the end of the first year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88f62ae5-bc80-4897-a733-fc8cb532bce5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "There has been an internal debate within the IRS for a number of years about whether the agency should issue separate guidelines for solar transactions... is the tax equity investor a real partner with meaningful upside and downside risk of a business or is it a bare purchaser of tax benefits or a lender earning essentially a fixed return?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bf3b1472-f7a7-4460-b790-55e73cac18bb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"There has been an internal debate within the IRS for a number of years about whether the agency should issue separate guidelines for solar transactions... is the tax equity investor a real partner with meaningful upside and downside risk of a business or is it a bare purchaser of tax benefits or a lender earning essentially a fixed return?\" — Norton Rose Fulbright", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:44:16+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6e9-749a-ba78-bf6468105b52", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "38, 39, 40, 41 footnotes", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Insurance covers up to 36% of the ITC amount; Our estimate of RUN’s claimed FMV for 2021 was $4.85 / watt; RUN’s 2021 direct sales price (which we view as equivalent to the Market Approach) was $3.16 / watt and our average adjusted Cost Approach valuation was $3.73 / watt, for an overall estimated adjusted FMV of $3.45 / watt;", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f2511f39-9adb-4461-b12f-eb92a4d7c1be", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "However, this likely does not capture the full exposure of the tax equity investor. Even if the insurance policy is honored in full in a timely basis, their full losses may not be covered, if the IRS choses to act.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "02637a69-c461-42e4-90f3-d445e37ad943", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.138 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As companies like RUN have become more aggressive with the ITCs they claim, Tax Equity investors have required increased protection. Because RUN is not a highly rated corporate credit, and the claw back is a major concentrated risk for RUN, tax equity investors and ABS investors have required insurance for potential IRS claw backs. As a result, Kroll and the tax equity investors have required RUN to procure insurance to cover the IRS’s potential claw back of some of the ITCs and other tax benefits claimed in respect of RUN’s PV Systems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "25caebff-782e-4bf5-b8ae-94f2467bbd94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.755 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "With this information, we can calculate the total exposure of the Tax Equity Investor to claw back pre- and post-insurance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "39843dd2-1aaa-4aec-8739-9d6e9835c338", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.452 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To understand the underlying exposure of the tax equity investors, we must take a closer look at the insurance for the tax claw back risk. We believe that if the IRS acts to claw back the excess tax benefits, the best the tax equity investor can hope for is protracted litigation preceding a resolution.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3d38df26-7cdd-46e4-9006-1b49bc81c29e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.588 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Sunrun Vulcan 2021-1 securitization, combined with RUN filings and our estimates, produces the following figures:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7e7bfdca-8244-4b96-a588-bbb3c43d4c4c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.165, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.275 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "RUN indemnifies the tax equity investors should the IRS claw back some of the ITC benefits the tax equity investors have claimed. Given that the Tax Equity Investor is senior to the sponsor equity and the tax equity has the right to all of the cashflows from the PV System, RUN has indemnified the top of the waterfall and therefore, has essentially issued indemnification for all parties for the possible action of the IRS. Moreover, we believe that there is a material risk that any insurance covering potential claw backs may be void if there is a determination of tax fraud, which could subject RUN and the tax equity investors to significant liabilities, and ABS holders to reduced cash flows.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:56.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "86afc8b5-1d09-452d-9428-642956e0f785", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.815 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "42 KBRA Rating Report for RUN Vulcan Issuer 2021-1, LLC. 43 RUN 2021 10-K and Q1 2022 Historic Financial and Metric Model; MWC Estimates 44 This is the average of quarterly Subscriber Values in 2021 in 2018, $4.94 / watt, and quarterly estimated RUN Cost Approach valuations of $4.75 / watt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The excess depreciable basis is 85% of the excess ITC basis, or $1.19 / watt. The assumed tax rate is 21% federal and 5% state, or 26% total, for $0.31 / watt in taxes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:00.249+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e9859cb-fddb-4d4d-b5a4-15bf4473e5a1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The claimed ITC was 30% of $4.85 / watt, or $1.45 / watt; The ITC we believe to be supportable would be 30% of $3.45 / watt, or $1.03 / watt; The excess ITC claimed was thus $0.42 / watt, on an excess ITC basis of $1.40 / watt; The insurance was 36% of the claimed $1.45 / watt from above, or $0.52 / watt, only $.10 / watt larger than the excess ITC claimed.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:00.249+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "360c8c0a-deed-42a0-85ac-f85b4027d6f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This $0.73 / watt leaves a shortfall of $0.21 / watt after insurance coverage. 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Because RUN does not have sufficient capital to pay for all these PV Systems, it finances the systems in captive subsidiaries that elect to be taxed as partnerships. The partnerships sell Tax Equity interests to unrelated third parties (large C-corporations) and the Sponsor Equity is retained by RUN and pledged to secure warehouse facilities and ABS.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.682+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4021fb1e-dad1-48c3-95a9-92fd7a156b71", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.425, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.353 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Below is a simplified diagram of the Partnership Flip mechanics:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:54.682+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "651d45db-ab56-4954-80f7-7c4087da7628", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.112, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.225 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The RUN Partnership Flips are designed to allow RUN to monetize multiple tax benefits of owning PV Systems even though RUN does not have any taxable income. The Partnership Flip transaction is one in which a US partnership has asymmetric allocations of cash flows, tax credits and partnership taxable income / losses to different partners at different periods in the partnership's life. 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Receives approximately $.02 per year on the dollar of cash in each of the first five years based on its initial capital account balance; and 4. 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The economics of Tax Equity interest do not fluctuate once the face value (e.g., the ITC, depreciable tax base and capital account balance) is established. The PPA retains all other economics associated with the solar equipment electricity generation, and the Sponsor Equity, in turn, captures almost all of the economics of the PPA. 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RUN contributes its sponsor equity from the partnership flips described supra into trusts and then issues ABS...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:59.701+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "387adab8-6179-495d-9f09-f1f855c247b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "52 This is the average of RUN's 2018 quarterly Project Value (later renamed to Subscriber Value), $4.36 / watt, and the estimated 2018 Cost Approach valuation of $3.91 / watt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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See table below.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:57.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0963260f-7e74-44e7-ae09-8769d79b1f1a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If Kroll is not able to find the underlying cash flows associated with the inflated FMV, and there are additional costs that Kroll did not consider in its valuation calculation as they are outside of the rating mandates, this would suggest further overstatement in the Net Earning Assets that RUN touts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:57.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "224e4557-f56d-4a45-8130-9bbfbe9daa41", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It appears that Kroll, hired by RUN, does not find enough cash flows in the pool of collateral to meet the claimed FMV for ITC basis purposes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:57.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "47648050-b5b6-48aa-bc1f-85ee653329cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.62, "x": 0.19, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Kroll Bond Rating Agency New Issue Report, Athena Issuer 2018-1 * Estimated Sunrun 2018 FMV of $4.13 / watt multiplied by Athena's 249.9 MW ** This represents either cash flows that Kroll did not find or dismissed as having no value for a securitization.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:57.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aeb2e70d-2eba-4fcc-9392-8d92888de5ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.62, "x": 0.19, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Sunrun Claimed FMV (MW Estimate, $millions)* 1,033.0 100% Less: Tax Equity (38.5%) (397.7) 38.5% Subtotal: Sponsor Equity 635.3 61.5% Athena Calculated Sponsor Equity 635.3 100% Less: Contracted Cash Flows (547.2) 86.1% Non-Contracted Cash Flows** 88.1 13.9% Kroll Reported ADSAB 445.4 70.1% Less: Rated Bond Issues (322.0) 50.7% Less: Non-Rated Bonds (56.5) 8.9% Unexplained Missing Value** 66.9 10.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:57.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "07a85a3d-6d0d-4992-ae19-4081e7c6ddc0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Kroll Applies a Significant Haircut to Sunrun's Athena Cash Flows", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:47:57.672+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "024c13e3-a28d-46e3-9f27-d822afbab467", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 33, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 21, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "99c157a5-a525-4946-8ebd-695444909833", "matchId": "42b76524-bd39-48b1-b1c2-cfa6551af787", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Muddy Waters Research presents its conclusion and recommendations for investors.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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