{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "slug": "4122ae57ab1a", "title": "Danimer Scientific (DNMR)", "subtitle": "Carson Block · 2021-09", "author": "Carson Block", "date": "2021-09-15 00:00:00", "pageCount": 20, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Danimer Scientific", "targetTicker": "DNMR", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "slug": "4122ae57ab1a", "title": "Danimer Scientific (DNMR)", "rawTitle": "MW DNMR 09152021", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson Block", "authorDisplay": "Carson Block", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2021-09-MW_DNMR_09152021.pdf", "sourceUrl": "http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/", "sourceDate": null, "presentationDate": "2021-09-15 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 19:50:49+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 20, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Danimer Scientific", "targetTicker": "DNMR", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/4122ae57ab1a", "activist_firm": "Muddy Waters Capital", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 153.927973985672 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 20, "pagesIndexed": 20, "pagesWithImages": 20, "pagesWithMetadata": 20, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 135, "chartCount": 0, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 8, "documentToolMatches": 3, "frameworkMatches": 5, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 6, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "47e9638e-6dbf-4eb7-a144-1c841999c37d", "evidence": "The report follows a problem-agitate-solution structure, presenting a clear problem with DNMR's production plans, agitating it by highlighting the contradictions and amateurishness, and providing a solution by presenting evidence and critique.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:58:47.146121+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 4, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 4, "name": "Complication", "beatId": "a483c68d-84d7-47ae-867a-798b8f82bde0", "matchId": "47e9638e-6dbf-4eb7-a144-1c841999c37d", "beatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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report as prose research note, not a slide deck — Times Roman body with footnotes, no original data-viz beyond simple tables. Signature rhetorical move (from p2): 'play the man, not the ball' — attacks management behaviors (shifting capacity plans, Hail Mary M&A, PLA/PHA bait-and-switch) rather than building a DCF. Uses direct CEO quotes ('fully sold-out', '$200M take-or-pay') to set up contradictions. Includes a Chappelle's Show still ('Money is a Helluva Drug') on p12 as rhetorical device. Reproduces three DNMR marketing slides (pp. 10, 13, 17) to attack them directly. Hat tip to Hindenburg in footnote 1. No explicit price target; the 'ask' is the short position itself.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "~28.4% (29.3% Q1 / 27.4% Q2) vs. DNMR-implied ~50%", "metric": "PHA capacity utilization (H1 2021)" }, { "detail": "$8.03M total, implying only ~2.84M lbs neat PHA produced", "metric": "PHA compound sales (H1 2021)" }, { "detail": "~2.7-3.0x with near-zero work-in-process but building finished goods", "metric": "Inventory turns (annualized)" }, { "detail": "$152M cash; Novomer headcount fell from ~60 to ~10 by end of 2019", "metric": "Novomer acquisition price" }, { "detail": "Plan revised 4x in 8 months; capacity claims jump from 315M to 390M PPY while nameplate only sums to 250M", "metric": "Capex / capacity" }, { "detail": "DNMR: 500B lbs / ~$1T; realistic PHA packaging TAM $4-5B; 2020 bioplastics market $3.5-9.2B", "metric": "TAM claim vs. reality" }, { "detail": "Claimed 60M PPY in 2015 video; now described as 'PHA demonstration plant'", "metric": "Bainbridge capacity history" } ], "closingAsk": "Muddy Waters is short DNMR and urges investors to treat DNMR's demand, partnership, capacity, and TAM claims as misleading.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:50:49+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 153.92798, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "No explicit price target; downside is implied by reframing DNMR from a 'sold-out' scaled producer in a $1 trillion TAM to a sub-commercial demonstration-plant operation in a realistic $4-9bn bioplastics market.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "H1 2021 PHA capacity utilization is ~28%, not the 50% management implies — demand is weak", "Purported $200M take-or-pay deals are non-binding; PepsiCo award-winning 'PHA' bag is actually PLA", "$152M Novomer acquisition is a Hail Mary on a hollowed-out, cash-poor, non-commercial technology" ], "scqaSituation": "Danimer Scientific is a $1.7bn post-SPAC bioplastics company producing PHA, with touted marquee partnerships (PepsiCo, Nestle, Bacardi, Mars Wrigley), claims of $200M+ take-or-pay offtake, sold-out 2022 capacity, and a $1 trillion TAM.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters is short Danimer Scientific, a $1.7bn post-SPAC bioplastics company whose CEO Stephen Croskrey claims 'fully sold-out' 2022 Kentucky capacity backed by $200M+ take-or-pay agreements with PepsiCo, Nestle, and Bacardi. Muddy Waters estimates H1 2021 utilization at ~28% — with persistent finished-goods inventory build and near-zero work-in-process evidencing weak demand. Marquee partnerships are mischaracterized: the PepsiCo bag that won a 2018 bioplastics award is PLA, not PHA, and Mars Wrigley sources say commercial packaging is not expected before 2025. DNMR has revised its capacity plan four times in eight months, and the $152M Novomer acquisition looks like a Hail Mary on a hollowed-out firm whose headcount fell from 60 to 10 and whose technology has never reached commercial scale. The claimed 500-billion-pound / $1 trillion TAM is 'delusional' versus a realistic $4-5bn PHA packaging market, echoing precedents Metabolix and ADM that both abandoned PHA.", "primaryDemands": [], "scqaResolution": "Short DNMR. Muddy Waters concludes the equity story unravels once investors see weak demand, non-binding take-or-pay contracts, ever-shifting capacity claims, and that the $152M Novomer deal is a Hail Mary on unproven technology.", "thesisOneLiner": "DNMR is a post-SPAC bioplastics story whose 'sold-out' demand, $200M take-or-pay contracts, and $1 trillion TAM are misrepresentations — actual utilization is ~28% and Novomer is a Hail Mary.", "precedentsCited": [ "Metabolix PHA business (sold for $10M after ~$300M invested)", "Archer-Daniels-Midland PHA exit", "Saudi Aramco 8-month diligence on Novomer (vs. DNMR's 3 weeks)", "Hindenburg Research ('play the man, not the ball')" ], "scqaComplication": "DNMR has misled investors: estimated H1 utilization is ~28% not 50%, the award-winning PepsiCo 'PHA' bag is actually PLA, Mars Wrigley is 2025+, capacity plans changed four times in eight months, and Novomer was hollowed out pre-acquisition.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 2, 3, 6, 10, 13, 17 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Metabolix", "Archer-Daniels-Midland", "Novomer", "SABIC", "CJ CheilJedang", "WinCup", "UrthPact", "CPG (Biolo)", "Eagle Beverage" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "not_shown" ], "visualCraftInterest": 1 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "Standard legal boilerplate for investment research.", "function": "other", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/rTkccV3LJsw8BoiB02eOqaqi9JZw2hcWC6HZjeiL1mw/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy80MTIyYWU1N2FiMWEvcDAwMS5qcGc", "rawType": "appendix_disclosure", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "appendix_disclosure", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Appendix disclosure", "slug": "appendix_disclosure", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-07b2-7549-8e8b-932a19f6e616", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "other", "functionCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-15e1-75bc-99dc-07732380e2ce", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 10, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 337, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Standard legal boilerplate for investment research.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:12.203+00", "seconds": 2.061, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "These Terms of Use govern current reports published by Muddy Waters Research and supersede any prior Terms of Use for older reports of Muddy Waters Research, which you may download from the Muddy Waters Research's website.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:12.203+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "72edb704-be11-4b69-a9ff-c2330ca54eb8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The reports on this website have been prepared by Muddy Waters Capital LLC... 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In our view, DNMR has misled investors about having over $200 million of “take or pay” agreements. We feel it has misled investors by stating that its only impediment to selling more product is lack of capacity when the products it hopes to sell do not yet exist. It expressly claimed that it can sell everything it produces, but in actuality the demand for its products appears to be quite weak. DNMR has announced four iterations of its capacity expansion plan in eight months, which indicates that it is likely to waste significant time and money trying to scale. Yet, DNMR’s purchase of Novomer seems to be a tacit admission that its fermentation might not scale. In 2015, DNMR claimed that Bainbridge had 60 million pounds per year of capacity; but, today it’s supposedly just a demonstration plant. DNMR has tried to mislead investors into believing that bag developed with PepsiCo is PHA when it is really PLA-based. 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Logically, what changed in the 13 years since DNMR began developing its PHA business? To us, the key change was that due to Covid, there was suddenly a flood of unsophisticated money being sprayed at developmental companies through SPACs. Can infusing DNMR with hundreds of millions of dollars make its PHA business “real”? We think not.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:19.715+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a194acc9-0e40-4042-b996-6ffc5f0d3c06", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.415 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Hope is not a plan. So how do you figure out whether an early stage technology company will succeed? The short answer is to “play the man, not the ball.” Because it’s nearly impossible to effectively evaluate early stage tech, we look for behaviors that indicate a company is not “real” and likely won’t be. 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Bullish investors have taken this to mean that DNMR's TAM is $1 trillion, which we find delusional. 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Conversely, DNMR appears largely unable to manufacture the products that underlie the purported “over $200 million of take or pay offtake agreements.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:17.237+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c8791eaf-d5c7-4ef8-8758-e8c559077559", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The call for a reduction in the use of plastic grows louder each day. Unfortunately, there is no single solution and switching to biodegradable materials or any other single-use material will not be the silver bullet. Widespread plastic pollution is a result of systematic problems that include over-consuming behavior, reliance on the single-use connivance, and a non-sustainable linear model that ignores end-of-life waste disposal. — Greenpeace", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-f90c30e92bbb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.73 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Footnotes 7-10 detailing sources for claims and data points.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 6, "type": "tension", "title": "Includes a table calculating production volume based on sales, inventory build, and assumed PHA content.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 77, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 1368, "nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "Includes a table calculating production volume based on sales, inventory build, and assumed PHA content.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:14.781+00", "seconds": 3.5, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4/6", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4#slide-6", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "To the extent our estimate is accurate, this anemic production supports our view that DNMR PHA compounds are in low demand, and DNMR is incapable of producing PHA compounds that would be in high demand.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:45+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-0039eea5254b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Utilization: 28.4%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:45+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-0a0a1d946259", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.464 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our Q1 and Q2 average price per pound for PHA compounds are the prices DNMR provided across its PLA and PHA compounds... We estimate that the PHA compounds contain 70% neat PHA... If we were to use a 62% PHA content assumption, utilization would drop.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:14.781+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5d79f038-f38e-428a-b0a5-b2cfbbd5f0e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.183 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Using company favorable assumptions, we estimate that DNMR produced less than 1.5 million pounds of neat PHA of in each of Q1 and Q2, implying a miss of approximately 40%. The estimate supports our view that demand for DNMR PHA compounds is poor.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:14.781+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "db821469-a364-490b-8189-35c179a2eb2f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.088, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.606 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To the extent our estimate is accurate, this anemic production supports our view that DNMR PHA compounds are in low demand, and DNMR is incapable of producing PHA compounds that would be in high demand. These conclusions stand in stark contrast to DNMR's statements.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:14.781+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4f5c05f-bf81-42d0-934a-5e94668009c5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "the average cost per pound of PHA-based products sold was significantly higher than PLA based products sold — DNMR 1Q21 earnings call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:45+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-07516d1b2e3b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.56, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.803 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Footnotes 11-17 detailing data sources and methodology.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"paragraph", "text": "DNMR has misled investors about the state of its partnerships. Rather than there being $200 million of buying waiting on DNMR to build capacity, its partners mostly appear to be patiently working with DNMR to develop products that one day might – or might not – come to fruition. 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The debottlenecking project took just two weeks followed by a short period of testing. As such, at most we think it reasonable to assume that Q2 capacity utilization would decrease only modestly (~17%-33%), leaving 3.4 million to 4.2 million pounds of capacity available in Q2. At 50% utilization, total neat PHA production for H1 2021 therefore should have been roughly 4.2 million – 4.6 million pounds. The estimated 2.8 million pounds produced is well below the available quarterly production capacity. 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Below is a table of DNMR's inventory detail and annualized turnover. Our interpretation is that DNMR's sub-scale production of PHA compounds consistently outstrips demand, as there is a significant, persistent finished product balance and essentially no work in process. 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This is particularly true given that DNMR's annualized inventory turnover has generally been at or less than 3.0 times.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b117210e-d125-45b6-9d7d-ff0842866ec7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“... in the latter part of the second quarter 2021, we are scheduled to temporarily take the Kentucky plant off-line to implement several debottlenecking initiatives.” — DNMR 1Q21 earnings call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-d98c4e3456a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.24, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: S&P Capital IQ", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:45+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-231edce6f679", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.165 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We understand that in all likelihood, the earliest Mars Wrigley will purchase commercial quantities of wrappers using DNMR PHA is 2025 – if ever. We further understand that PepsiCo views DNMR PHA potato chip bags as being several years away at best from a commercial-scale roll out. DNMR misleadingly implies that a PLA bag that it developed with PEP that won a bioplastics award is actually a PHA bag. 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The narrative is that these agreements provide strong sales visibility over the next few years. We disagree.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:17.319+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e743ae8d-6bb9-4c7c-8cbc-aeafb2e0421c", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 10, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "06_zoom_in", "slug": "06-zoom-in", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6846-74db-82be-dff5b058b072", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication", "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "19b1e196-cd24-4711-8763-0b8e86a419f5", "evidence": "The report presents a detailed analysis of DNMR's production estimates and customer agreements", "position": 0, "objective": "What is the real demand for DNMR's PHA products?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:58:47.405887+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 9, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide contrasts corporate R&D realities with investor expectations.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 40, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 2333, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide contrasts corporate R&D realities with investor expectations.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "other" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:21.292+00", "seconds": 9.347, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4/9", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4#slide-9", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.215 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Analyst: It sounds like a lot more development is needed before there'll be kind of a sample package that can start to be tested. Do you have an idea of what the timeline is?\nMars Source: So, that's a good question. Because to give you an idea the R&D team internally involved at Mars, that is, brought to the Danimer project, was an R&D team that it's really for a long-term project, like 5 to 10 years.\nAnalyst: Hmm. Okay, so we're looking at a fairly long time horizon.\nMars Source: I mean, 2025, I hope we will have something by 2025, yes.\nAnalyst: Okay, but you're already like two years into it, right?\nMars Source: Yes, we are, but the two years were mainly negotiating the partnership, so, uh, of course, there were some materials. I mean we already have some materials so that they were tested, et cetera, but, I think like we are not there for having the packaging.\nAnalyst: Yeah, it's always amazing to learn like how much work is involved in trying to develop a package, which seems like something very simple, but it's actually just amazing how much R&D and development, and how many brains and minds and people; you know how many hours go into these types of projects, it's incredible.\nMars Source: I can tell you it's huge, its huge. And keep in mind, for a food company. We cannot compromise the quality of our goods. You know, we cannot allow ourselves to go into the market with the packaging that we might have a challenge with the content. It might be easier for other types of packaging that you don't pack food. But in our case, it's extremely complicated.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:21.292+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a2a0c75c-e622-414e-b0ac-5b24893566a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Pepsi\nDNMR is still years away from the commercial rollout of a PHA bag for PepsiCo – at best. Investors might be surprised to hear this, given DNMR’s misleading presentation of a PLA-based bag it developed over 10 years with PepsiCo. Even if DNMR and PepsiCo can develop the PHA bag, it is highly questionable whether PepsiCo will use it because of the likely cost and resulting litter problem.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:21.292+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "041d5cc8-a2f1-4482-ad00-04bdf1891466", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Mars Wrigley\nWe understand from a well-placed source familiar with Mars Wrigley’s sustainable packaging development programs that there are critical issues to solve before it can produce packaging using DNMR’s PHA at scale, and that he sees DNMR and Mars Wrigley being able to do so no sooner than 2025. It is possible that the program never comes to fruition.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:21.292+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5bffb0ad-b545-4a5f-9e1d-9f22f6a67d51", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 10, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "06_zoom_in", "slug": "06-zoom-in", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Technical 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"subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd3-8709412e93db", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.365, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.335 }, "kind": "other", "text": "Three-column case study layout for PepsiCo, WinCup, and Nestle.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Other", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa90-743c-8bf6-20d1fbe82b6d", "version": 1, "description": "Fallback when no canonical kind applies." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Unclassified", "slug": "unclassified", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05ca-77db-81fb-db7d4234bbc0", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "unclassified", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.127+00", "model": 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We understand that this testing can take up to a year to complete. This timeline might be surprising because DNMR’s February 3, 2021 investor presentation misleadingly features a DNMR PepsiCo bag that won a bioplastics award in three slides. DNMR previously developed this bag with PepsiCo, but it uses PLA.22,23 The bag reportedly took almost 10 years to develop. 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The former managers with whom we spoke understand that the announcement of a successful test production run made in March 2021 was performed on a pilot plant capable of producing only sample quantities of a few kilograms per day.36 (A prior pilot plant had also been built, but it was even smaller.) Descriptions of the severity of the plant design problems varied between the two sources, but both assessed that there was still critical work needed when they left. The former Novomer manager who was involved in the design and construction of both plants stated that the myriad issues were unlikely to have been solved between when he left in mid-2019 and the present. When asked about the possibility of there having been a subsequent breakthrough, he stated:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:17.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "10324fc3-3684-435c-b5d6-9c7419a87f29", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.155, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "needs to develop understanding to scale. DNMR positions Novomer's Rinnovo p(3HP) product as helping DNMR achieve simpler production that will also be 10x faster than fermentation, while requiring less OpEx and 80% lower CapEx on a per pound basis!31 DNMR's announcement that it intends to replace 30% of DNMR's final product formulations with Novomer's PHA seems to be providing false hope to customers and investors that there is a pathway to a more competitive offering. Based on our understanding of Novomer, the foregoing optimism does not seem warranted, because Novomer seems not to have the technology or processes to make these hopes real.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:17.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "27f6f0c6-6195-422c-81d1-500207c23f79", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.385, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.255 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Novomer's inability to solve its first principles issues and commercialize its PHA technology apparently led to it running out of money in late 2019. Novomer's headcount reportedly had dropped by the end of 2019 from approximately 60 to about 10. The departures seemingly included most of Novomer's senior talent, including the lead scientists responsible for the majority of its patent submissions, plant engineering, and design work. Many of Novomer's base patents had reportedly expired or were expiring, leaving largely process patents that are generally less protective. One of the former Novomer senior managers believes that the capital needed at that time to complete development of the technology and build a commercial-scale plant was between $300 million and $500 million. This range is considerably higher than the $200 million to $250 million range the market has been led to believe an 80,000 ton per year Novomer plant would run.32 (We assume that 2021 costs would be higher still.) Novomer was also reportedly impeded by other issues, including needing to use expensive and explosive feedstocks and expensive organic catalysts. Novomer's November 2019 hiring of Jeff Uhrig as CEO was apparently to prepare the company for a sale, as Mr. Uhrig's prior position as CEO included selling the company.33,34 We understand that the $152 million sale consideration was roughly equal to the amounts invested in Novomer plus grant funding. Several potential buyers and licensees apparently have passed on acquiring Novomer since 2016, including its own investor SABIC, a large polymer manufacturer.35", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:17.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4caeb917-4984-4571-8a92-6bde880b88fb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.875 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "31 July 29, 2021 DNMR Investor Call. 32 Sell-side anaylst report, July 29, 2021 33 https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-uhrig-0b56333/ 34 https://www.sirruschemistry.com/nippon-shokubai-acquires-sirrus-inc-expanding-its-core-business-under-reborn-nippon-shokubai-2020/ 35 https://www.sabic.com/en 36 https://www.plasticstoday.com/advanced-recycling/novomer-develops-industrys-lowest-cost-process-produce-compostable-plastics", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:17.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "439fe985-61cf-4f0d-aeed-e74c16337469", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 16, "from": 14, "loop": { "name": "08_analogy", "slug": "08-analogy", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Complex concepts, new markets, technical explanations for non-experts", "canonId": "019dd956-6901-7032-ba44-96eaed94c949", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight", "description": "Explain the unfamiliar through a well-understood parallel domain", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "f1449442-2f5e-4055-ace1-ff64941ab98e", "evidence": "The report presents a comparison with Novomer's deal dynamics", "position": 1, "objective": "How does DNMR's production plan compare to others in the industry?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:58:47.442512+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 16, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses expert testimony to challenge the company's claims regarding low-CapEx and production costs.", "function": "expose_gap", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_gap", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose gap", "slug": "expose_gap", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1795-772d-8f3a-75ccfb93fe58", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 40, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1155, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses expert testimony to challenge the company's claims regarding low-CapEx and production costs.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.608+00", "seconds": 2.969, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4/16", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4#slide-16", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "DNMR presents Novomer as not just being a low-CapEx project but one with low production costs as well, which we believe is misleading.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-582894e8dfdb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "DNMR presents Novomer as not just being a low-CapEx project but one with low production costs as well, which we believe is misleading. Other major shortcomings in DNMR's planning appear to be the analysis of Novomer's raw materials and catalysts costs and sourcing.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.608+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e5ad60e0-c9f1-4f31-b270-0b857d28d220", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And by the way, it's not only the Novomer process. Just to be clear, I think all the guys who are in PHA struggle to compete in the polymer marketplace.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.608+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7f475c9-a232-4932-b0f7-0d122dca9ec6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Anything is possible. I mean, there is no impossibility. I think I would rather say it is improbable given that there were no, there were no experienced people left.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.608+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fd468f20-f90f-4f19-8aa3-e7a5ab04b63b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Anything is possible. I mean, there is no impossibility. I think I would rather say it is improbable given that there were no, there were no experienced people left.\" — Former Novomer scientist. \"And by the way, it's not only the Novomer process. Just to be clear, I think all the guys who are in PHA struggle to compete in the polymer marketplace.\" — Former Novomer manager.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-5d40b2e2b445", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Footnotes 37-41 detailing sources for claims and expert quotes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The below slide strikes us as ludicrous:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-a309db8064d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.51, "x": 0.245, "y": 0.658 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Over 75% of the global plastic production finds it way into consumer homes...; PHA can be an alternative to a wide variety of petroleum based plastics...; Currently, bioplastics make up less than 1% of the global plastics market...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "58b09372-cd79-4d0b-97eb-d9a5b6e68578", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.245, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.495 }, "kind": "list", "text": "800 Billion lbs Plastic Produced Annually; 17 Billion lbs Plastic in the Ocean Annually; 640 Billion lbs Plastic in Landfills Annually", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c01cf08b-c000-4205-acf9-5d5814b427cb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.255, "x": 0.245, "y": 0.495 }, "kind": "metric", "text": "500 Billion lbs Of Plastic Waste Could be Eliminated by Danimer", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Big number", "slug": "big-number", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc70-70c8-b965-0584548a9204", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "big-number", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0a51ac31-0fcb-4f4e-8848-642c7a85d775", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "TAM: 500 Billion lbs", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-a537a141dfd0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.51, "x": 0.245, "y": 0.464 }, "kind": "other", "text": "Addressable Plastics Market", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Other", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa90-743c-8bf6-20d1fbe82b6d", "version": 1, "description": "Fallback when no canonical kind applies." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Unclassified", "slug": "unclassified", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05ca-77db-81fb-db7d4234bbc0", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "unclassified", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f83841b-1278-443b-b408-742d46eef552", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.433 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "DNMR claims a TAM of 500 billion pounds of plastic to which analysts have ascribed a $800 billion to $1.0 trillion value. The below slide strikes us as ludicrous:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6d6bb693-3428-4c8d-8a90-2ae144bf0c0f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.763 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One easy way of sanity-checking this claim is to search for estimates for the bioplastics. Of course such estimates vary widely, but we found none that remotely approached DNMR's PHA TAM claim. The 2020 bioplastics market estimates we found range from $3.5 billion to $9.2", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8c527119-22cc-44e0-8977-ff86f6cda0d0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "42, 43, 44 footnotes", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Focuses on market skepticism regarding DNMR's TAM projections.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.804+00", "seconds": 3.942, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4/18", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4#slide-18", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b97-347b4420f1b4.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "There are industry, economic, technical, policy, and regulatory reasons why PHA – and bioplastics overall – will not be nearly as large as DNMR purports.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:00:47+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb94-7034-9dd4-2c0c2f5fcd82", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The experts with whom we spoke disputed DNMR's TAM and the potential for PHA to dominate the bioplastics market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.804+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "411b384a-acb5-49ce-b6c4-d40463ec69a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "billion. For 2027, they range from $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. We found a 2031 bioplastics market estimate of $47 billion. PHA is likely only to constitute a slice of the bioplastics market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.804+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "469b822d-1c81-4b1c-99ac-23bbbd5a9e8f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "There are industry, economic, technical, policy, and regulatory reasons why PHA – and bioplastics overall – will not be nearly as large as DNMR purports.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.804+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6d5aeccf-663e-4489-92e2-e72cd3a8d658", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Global efforts at building out recycling infrastructure to date have created entrenched interests ranging from owners of recycling equipment (often municipalities) to petrochemical companies with plans and technology capable of recovering and reusing current polymers. 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PHAs have potential to grow their share quickly, with several manufacturers coming online in the next few years; however, at the same time, he emphasized that the challenges of ramping up actual capacity to theoretical nameplate capacity were large and not easily or quickly overcome. 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Because the reality is that so much energy is stored within most polymers, you actually want to reuse them. You want to find ways to pull it back.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.804+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b076808a-e83d-4228-a7cc-2865d7847351", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "My projection is if PLA is a billion pounds per year right now and that took let's see up in here to like fifteen or twenty years to get to a billion pounds per year, PHA I think can go a lot faster, but there'll be like two billion pounds, you're not going to be a hundred billion pounds.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:16.804+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b0ef3f46-a2cb-4178-b750-f0b2fea9bf1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "My projection is if PLA is a billion pounds per year right now and that look let's see up in here to like fifteen or twenty years to get to a billion pounds per year, PHA I think can go a lot faster, but there'll be like two billion pounds, you're not going to be a hundred billion pounds. — PepsiCo source; And you know the unfortunate part of everything, is I think a lot of people do not realize that the market opportunity for biodegradable polymers is very limited. 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In the US, the states of California, Washington, and Maryland have increased regulation of biodegradability claims on product labels. Even TUV, the body which gave DNMR its biodegradability certifications, recognizes the potential problem of consumer confusion about its OK biodegradable certification and labels leading to increased littering. WinCup Phade straws’ packaging notes the product is not intended for sale in the states of Maryland (MD) or Washington (WA).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c584c45b-8b9b-42cf-82b2-2071ae04c58b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "60 https://archive.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/explore/plastics-and-the-circular-economy\n61 https://www.tuv-at.be/green-marks/certifications/ok-biodegradable/\n62 During our investigiation, we found WinCup released two versions of its box packaging for the phade brand straw. One available for purchase directly from WinCup is emblazoned with the terms “OCEAN FRIENDLY”, “MARINE BIODEGRABALE” in multiple places as well as a dolphin logo, but lacks the TUV “OK biodegradable marine” cert. We posit that the biodegradability claims are made based on the use of DNMR PHA in its formula alone and that the end product was not tested or did not pass testing prior to its market release. This package includes the disclaimer “NOT LABELLED FOR SALE IN MD AND WA.” The other package for sale on WalMart and Amazon websites completely omits the unsubstantiated marine biodegradable claims.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bd1941e0-7cfb-4f4b-9fae-4eb0140ad803", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Regulatory – Consumer Behavior Risks", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:15.665+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2c5256cf-145c-4c92-abea-083d4621b6ca", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [ { "from": 4, "to": 4, "label": "Complication", "description": "DNMR's ever-shifting plans for capacity give us the impression that it's throwing a Hail Mary" }, { "from": 6, "to": 6, "label": "Expose Contradiction", "description": "DNMR's production estimates suggest significantly lower demand and utilization than management claims" }, { "from": 5, "to": 5, "label": "Preempt Rebuttal", "description": "Demand for DNMR's PHA Products Seems Weak" }, { "from": 4, "to": 4, "label": "Villain Critique", "description": "DNMR Seems Amateurish About Production" }, { "from": 12, "to": 12, "label": "Expose Contradiction", "description": "Who is “planning” DNMR’s production?" }, { "from": 11, "to": 11, "label": "Villain Critique", "description": "DNMR Seems Amateurish About Production" } ], "loops": [ { "from": 6, "to": 10, "label": "Zoom In", "description": "What is the real demand for DNMR's PHA products?" }, { "from": 14, "to": 16, "label": "Analogy", "description": "How does DNMR's production plan compare to others in the industry?" }, { "from": 17, "to": 19, "label": "Cost Of Inaction", "description": "What are the risks of investing in DNMR?" } ] }