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Format is a Word-style research note with embedded screenshots (database query output, BOSS Zhipin job postings in Chinese with English annotations) rather than a designed slide deck. Highlights include a sarcastic mock 'cut-and-paste' management reply on the closing page and the smoking-gun bot-operator job listings on pages 5-6. The CEO-quote contradiction concerns GSX's official statement that it is 'committed to the highest standards of corporate governance' contrasted with the WeChat-only release. No explicit price target or stake disclosed; Muddy Waters discloses a short position via standard Terms of Use on page 1.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "At least 70% of GSX users fraudulent, likely over 80%", "metric": "Estimated fake user share" }, { "detail": "463,217 records for 54,065 unique users", "metric": "Sign-in records analyzed" }, { "detail": "28.2% of purported students = 15,239 users shared an IP with GSX staff", "metric": "Student IP overlap with GSX teachers/tutors (MW finding)" }, { "detail": "Only 0.78% — 43,843 of 5,617,835 student IPs", "metric": "GSX-claimed IP overlap (WeChat rebuttal)" }, { "detail": "10.6% of users (5,742 unique) joined on the same second / same weekday across different weeks", "metric": "Precise Joiner share" }, { "detail": "MW's 165,111 distinct IPs = 2.9% of GSX's set yet captured 34.8% of GSX's claimed overlap", "metric": "Sample coverage vs. GSX's full dataset" } ], "closingAsk": "Investors should reject GSX's rebuttals and recognize that the company's own bot-operator job postings confirm it is a fraud.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:44:48+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 68.84189, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "If GSX is a near-empty box as Muddy Waters concludes, the equity should approach zero; the report does not give an explicit price target but implies catastrophic downside for long holders.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "GSX's WeChat rebuttal omits agent_id, agent_policy, and timestamp fields, making the data unusable", "GSX's claim of only 0.78% IP overlap fails Muddy Waters' laugh test versus its own 28.2% finding", "GSX openly recruits engineers to 'root' phones and run Xposed/TaiChi bot farms in its server rooms" ], "scqaSituation": "GSX Techedu is a U.S.-listed Chinese online K-12 tutoring company whose reported user growth has driven a soaring stock price and which Muddy Waters first attacked as a fraud on May 18, 2020.", "thesisSummary": "Following Muddy Waters' May 18, 2020 report concluding that at least 70% (likely over 80%) of GSX's purported users are fake bots, GSX issued two contradictory rebuttals: a non-substantive English press release and a more detailed Chinese-language WeChat post aimed at protecting Chairman Larry Chen's domestic reputation. Muddy Waters argues both responses are designed to deceive: the WeChat screenshot conveniently omits the agent_id, agent_policy and timestamp fields needed to verify the analysis, and GSX's claim that only 0.78% of student IPs overlap with tutor IPs is implausible against Muddy Waters' 28.2% finding from a 2.9% sample. 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In our report, we discussed how we had analyzed 463,217 sign in records for 54,065 unique users. We were able to identify GSX employees (teachers and tutors) in the data, based on how GSX coded them. What we then found was damning - 28.2% of purported students shared an IP address at one point with GSX tutors or teachers. This amounted to 15,239 purported students. 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Our data set of 165,111 total distinct IP addresses was only 2.9% of GSX's claimed query data set, yet it yielded 34.8% of GSX purported overlap number. 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It claimed that both phenomena are caused by switching of small class groups led by tutors over to the large class. However, this does not explain the Burst Joiner phenomenon because we excluded bursts within five minutes on either side of the start of class.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:53.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "20c4eae0-dfad-4ed8-be9e-7de4c30f26ec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.585 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GSX's use of bots is so pervasive that it even openly recruits for engineers to develop and maintain its bot army. The images below are of recent job postings. This post reveals specific details regarding GSX's operations, which is likely the reason it was taken down.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:53.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "49524f48-43b5-4aab-acc1-899e1d232f7e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.148 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In our report, we explained that 10.6% of users joined on the same second, the same day of the week, but on different weeks. We analogized that phenomenon to a weekly flight between two cities touching down at exactly the same second on two occasions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:53.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6cd62cd0-b6d3-4e01-abb7-630429ebb05f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.372 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "GSX's claim that switching from the small classes to the large explains Precise Joiners is also inadequate. In the WeChat response, GSX stated that if a tutor has not switched the small class over by the start time of the large class, the system will automatically perform the switch.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:53.832+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8cc6498f-a2cd-4c49-9779-383102774f7a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"do you understand what this is for?\" — A user of China's Snowball Finance (雪球)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:47:26+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9edb-485c293336c2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.925 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "https://xueqiu.com/5346637144/148620489 (underlines added)", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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install all types of framework software like Xp and TaiChi, etc.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:47:26+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9edb-80c5d1b06813", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Screenshot of job posting", "attrs": null, 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Because bots and fake users are now so prevalent throughout the internet environment in China, we hire and train specialists in bot operations as a matter of quality control. We must build and run these large-scale bot networks internally against our own system to make sure we can effectively block them. 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We thought we would help. Management or IR, please feel free to cut and paste the reply below.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:47:27+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-5376-7749-9edc-2741aa37fbea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Job posting screenshot", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:48.101+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "855a4d4e-cd76-47a7-a850-9510c646e837", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Another recent related job post from April 29, 2020 is below. This job post is also seeking cell phone engineers to be responsible for “rooting” or “jail breaking” cell phones, installing new software, and creating bots or fake users.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:48.101+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "800f2812-c933-4d81-8a26-8226c6ee999e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.64 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We expect management will wrack its brain to find another excuse about why it is hiring engineers to run its internal bot network. We thought we would help. Management or IR, please feel free to cut and paste the reply below.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:48.101+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a47f1ac2-88bc-420e-a34b-9657c40fd21f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "These job posts also list as one of the top duties of this cell phone engineer the need to be able to set up WeChat accounts and initiate messages. On the surface, this seems ridiculous as nearly all Chinese users with a smart phone know how to do this, even without an engineering background. However, the problem of not just fake students but also fake users in GSX’s WeChat groups has been reported by participants. These WeChat groups are formed by the tutor after a class sign up and are intended to engage the family. 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