{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-f44d944ad82c", "slug": "4e150a3ef496", "title": "NMC Health plc (NMC.LN)", "subtitle": "Carson C. Block · 2019-12", "author": "Carson C. Block", "date": "2019-12-17 00:00:00", "pageCount": 34, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "NMC Health plc", "targetTicker": "NMC.LN", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-f44d944ad82c", "slug": "4e150a3ef496", "title": "NMC Health plc (NMC.LN)", "rawTitle": "MW NMC 12172019 1", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson C. Block", "authorDisplay": "Carson C. 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involvement.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:59.595+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "b141a00d-789b-4137-8808-71d3583768e7", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies 'red flags' in financial statements to argue for potential fraud or overstatement.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:59.437+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "1a2de316-d915-4928-9b76-43b1c931df93", "evidence": "Table modeling EBITDA margin impact based on varying rejection rates", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:04.381+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 17, "frameworkName": "sensitivity-analysis" }, { "matchId": "aa97b952-eb23-42a9-a98a-7e31b8aff7ab", "evidence": "The text explicitly claims 'manipulative intent' and 'unjustifiably' understated debt.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:00.43+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "c530857c-c3c9-4ca0-b811-9e29fd439861", "evidence": "The slide systematically presents evidence of hidden debt and suspicious website activity to imply financial misconduct.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:01.234+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 27, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "dcdb2be6-ba44-4062-937f-f662491007df", "evidence": "The slide uses a digital footprint discrepancy to expose a potential contradiction in corporate disclosure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:00.968+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 28, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "36e0ee5c-4dfb-4dbf-b632-09ae554968b2", "evidence": "Analysis of board independence and auditor turnover as indicators of potential corporate malfeasance.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 31, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "20607bff-7adb-452d-a2e8-1a6e74efab52", "evidence": "The slide uses transaction data to expose potential insider malfeasance or misalignment of interests.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.352+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 32, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "c74ea297-1948-465e-8cfe-1a516bdc703b", "evidence": "The slide uses a declarative, thesis-driven headline to frame the subsequent data.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.081+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 33, "frameworkName": "action-titles" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Word-style prose research note (not a slide deck) typical of Muddy Waters short reports — Times Roman body text, footnoted citations, embedded data tables and one line chart. Cover page has the Muddy Waters Capital logo and discloses Carson C. Block as Director of Research. Report led directly to NMC's collapse: shares were suspended in February 2020, the company entered administration in April 2020, and BR Shetty and the Bin Buttis became subjects of major fraud investigations. Stake not disclosed (Muddy Waters states only that they are short). No explicit price target. Strong governance/fraud-exposure specimen with peer-gap tables on hospital cost, cash yield, and EBITDA margins.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "NMC Royal Women's at $7,686/m² vs UAE peer average $3,727/m² (+106%)", "metric": "Hospital build cost ($/m²)" }, { "detail": "NMC 0.42% (2015) to 0.77% (2018) vs Mediclinic 2.05-3.16% and Aster 1.69-3.99%", "metric": "Interest income yield on cash" }, { "detail": "NMC 20.2-23.7% (2016-H1 2019) vs Mediclinic Middle East 9.6-13.2% and Aster GCC 12.3-14.5%", "metric": "EBITDA margin" }, { "detail": "Rose from 3.10% (H2 2016) to 5.90% (H1 2019)", "metric": "Average interest rate on debt" }, { "detail": "$352.2M suddenly disclosed in H1 2019; ~$320M Aspen leases still understated", "metric": "Undisclosed operating lease commitments" }, { "detail": "9.4% (2015) rising to 10.7% (2018), totalling $130M in 2018", "metric": "Related-party purchases as % of direct costs" }, { "detail": "~£1bn net via sales, collars and pledges over two years; Khalifa Bin Butti pledged 73.1% of direct shareholding", "metric": "Insider monetization" }, { "detail": "Grew from $0.85M (2014) to $5.48M (2018); STIP paid out at 100% of maximum 2015-2018", "metric": "CEO remuneration" }, { "detail": "NMC claims ~2.0%; industry sources estimate 6-11% for UAE peers", "metric": "Reimbursement rejection rate" } ], "closingAsk": "We are unsure how deep the rot at NMC goes, but we do not believe that its insiders or financials can be trusted.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:41:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 101.54382, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "No explicit price target is given, but the report frames NMC as a possible fraud where insiders have already extracted ~£1bn — implying severe permanent capital loss for longs and asymmetric downside for shorts.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "NMC Royal Women's Hospital cost $7,700/m² — 106% above UAE peer average, contractor de-facto controlled by BR Shetty", "Interest yield on cash of 0.4-0.8% vs UAE peers at 1.4-3.4% suggests reported $491M cash balance is materially overstated", "Hidden reverse factoring plus $320M understated Aspen lease debt; insiders monetized ~£1bn via sales, collars, and pledges" ], "scqaSituation": "NMC Health is a FTSE 100, £5.4bn UAE-focused private hospital operator controlled by founder BR Shetty and the Bin Butti family, deriving over 85% of revenue from the United Arab Emirates.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters argues NMC Health plc, a FTSE 100 UAE-focused hospital operator, has materially misleading financial statements that mask possible fraud and theft. The firm flags two suspect acquisitions — the $107M Royal Women's Hospital redevelopment at $7,700/m² (more than double the UAE peer average) built by a Shetty-controlled contractor, and a $36M Premier Care purchase of a 10-employee shell — as hallmarks of inflated capex used to burn off fake cash. NMC's interest yield on its $491M cash balance runs 0.4-0.8% versus 1.4-3.4% at UAE peers, and its 22%+ EBITDA margins look implausible against Mediclinic and Aster at ~13%. 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This is more than double the average cost of the group of hospitals we examined.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0396-73da-b907-5532df81a878", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "cost per square meter: $7,700", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0396-73da-b907-594c1061cf3b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In comparing to existing hospitals' build costs, we took the sum of construction, fit-out, land, and equipment expenses in dollars and divided this total by the applicable square-meter area of the hospital. For the majority of hospitals, we were able to obtain broken-out costs; where we could not, we used a publicly available headline costs number. 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Over a built-up area of approximately 14,000 m², these costs come out to $7,700 / m². As one of our points of comparison, a UAE-based hospital manager with whom we spoke provided us with a generic in-country hospital bill of costs of approximately $3,700 / m². 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We therefore believe that the costs are likely inflated.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:48:58.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1753135e-e2ae-4c8d-a889-17751a80e5ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "NMC trumpeted the opening of Brightpoint Hospital (later renamed NMC Royal Women's Hospital) in 2014. 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Similarly, the Middle Eastern arm of Mediclinic plc operates exclusively in the UAE, while Aster DM Healthcare Ltd. generated 83% of FY2019 revenue in GCC countries, of which the majority appears to have been in the UAE. NMC and Aster cater to a base that consists of primarily UAE citizens and migrant workers on low-cost insurance plans, while Mediclinic focuses on the expatriate patient population. 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Khalifa Bin Butti became chairman of this bank in May 2016. In a salacious coincidence, Mr. Bin Butti replaced Khadem al-Qubaisi, who was arrested for his role in the “Billion Dollar Whale” / 1MDB / Jho Low scandal.37 NMC made no disclosure or announcement of this facility, which we see as unusual based on its history.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:06.65+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a921ff5f-2ac3-46f8-8b9e-1210e78da1a4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Assuming that the Reverse Factoring is not in short-term borrowings, it appears the $190.4 million balance as of H1 2019 could largely be overdrafts. At least that was the implication of statements by Mr. Yahya, who reiterated that this balance is “overdrafts, et cetera” multiple times. He stated that the company had never drawn on its $400 million revolver. This would be a staggering overdrafts balance to run, particularly given the purported cash. A partial answer could be provided by an $80 million short-term facility we found that was arranged by Kuwait International Bank and Warba Bank. However, there was no disclosure or announcement by NMC of this facility, which we believe is unusual. If the Kuwait International / Warba facility is not included in S-T Borrowings, we are truly perplexed. Regardless, any eight or nine figure overdrafts balance would be shocking, particularly given NMC’s reported cash balances. In any event, we never received a response to our request for further detail on the short-term borrowings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:06.65+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e795d3e3-5680-4031-b5e5-a68c2cfb3aa0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As we outline in this report, we have numerous concerns about the integrity of NMC’s financial statements. If there is one simple way of showing what a mess NMC’s financials could be, it is the failure to disclose over $350 million of operating lease commitments prior to H1 2019. In the H1 2019 report, NMC disclosed that it suddenly found $352.2 million of operating lease commitments it had previously failed to disclose. This amount represents over 12% of NMC’s reported debt total inclusive of leases, and the failure to previously disclose it is, in our view, a massive red flag. We find it implausible that any LSE issuer could overlook such a large lease liability, and therefore, we think NMC likely intentionally omitted the disclosure in prior periods.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:06.65+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e712010-e442-4694-b6af-35bb8cf1f828", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In recent weeks, the web page on the bank’s site announcing this facility has gone into the Memory Hole. (Fortunately, we still have a copy.) Given the lack of disclosure, close relationship, and possible coverup attempt, we wonder whether this facility is on the balance sheet. It is not shown in Bloomberg’s debt table. We recognize that Bloomberg might not have all issuances; but, the facts surrounding this facility give rise to several questions, and yet the company ceased engaging with us as we sought to reconcile to its reported debt.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:06.65+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ff2f4ced-19dd-40e1-ac5d-e13948bb8902", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "37 http://www.aleqt.com/2016/08/24/article_1080364.html", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Abdulrahman Basaddiq is a former Ernst & Young country partner who is on the board of Shetty-controlled Finablr.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f44d3433-ab75-4b6f-b277-636b0c57b9f0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Despite these entanglements, NMC Group’s controlling shareholders claim their relationship agreement “includes provisions to ensure the Board remains independent.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.687+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f7f2fc0d-5d65-48f1-9555-be9f80e02583", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“the retirement plan for former Ernst & Young partners” — Muddy Waters Issues Strong Sell on Sino-Forest Corporation", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:05+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0396-73da-b909-a65b2b4d7147", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Muddy Waters Issues Strong Sell on Sino-Forest Corporation, p. 2; NMC 2018 Annual Report, p. 94; Expert interview, October 2019.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Of course, KBBO's Chairman is Khalifa Bin Butti. Even without the doubts about transactions involving KBBO and other de facto related parties, the presence of a major shareholder and board member of NMC in this transaction represents a conflict of interest that raises doubt about the valuation of a transaction price “based on valuation done by management”.65", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6726a05a-fa77-4438-a0de-713c9af16cd3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.223 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To show how brazen NMC insiders are about their transactions with the company, NMC paid $170 million to KBBO Group for an early 2018 acquisition without any third-party valuation. We are of the opinion that third party rubber stamps are pretty easy to come by, which is why it is telling to us that the board was so unconcerned with appearances that it did not even put such a fig leaf in place here.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e393953b-342a-49ef-a950-04b00fc959b0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.502 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We are unsure how deep the rot at NMC goes, but we do not believe that its insiders or financials can be trusted.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4309b2e-f09d-4edf-ba2f-7fa9ee1eca05", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.235, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.894 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "65 NMC 2018 Annual Report, p. 95", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88779840-13f2-4103-a2c2-c49eafa52297", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.338, "x": 0.331, "y": 0.113 }, "kind": "table", "text": "NMC Key Management Compensation ($mn) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3.09 6.49 10.25 15.17 18.70", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3f9fa8b1-3e35-4d62-90bb-1ea64111b4cf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.676, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.188 }, "kind": "title", "text": "$170 Million to KBBO Group Based on Management Valuation Alone", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "19f3917f-3fdc-40b7-8e1d-05b8f9c997b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.085, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.467 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Conclusion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:02.778+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "db1f9de0-1126-460c-8153-09cf645bbe5e", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 34, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 31, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "c9b1fb20-509c-4ab7-8b10-3070d7a66233", "matchId": "8558c52a-5f6b-4cd2-a9fb-88db5bb3f2ac", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document concludes by highlighting the potential consequences of NMC's actions and the need for closer examination.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [ { "from": 4, "to": 20, "label": "The Monster", "description": "The document presents a series of contradictions and potential issues with NMC's financial statements and operations." }, { "from": 21, "to": 30, "label": "The Struggle", "description": "The document delves deeper into the issues with NMC's financial statements and operations, highlighting potential wrongdoing." }, { "from": 31, "to": 34, "label": "The Victory", "description": "The document concludes by highlighting the potential consequences of NMC's actions and the need for closer examination." } ], "loops": [ { "from": 4, "to": 10, "label": "The Reveal", "description": "To reveal potential contradictions in NMC's financial statements" }, { "from": 14, "to": 20, "label": "Iceberg", "description": "To expose potential issues with NMC's debt balances" } ] }