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Pure prose memo in Word/Times Roman style with extensive footnotes (35 cites) and embedded screenshots of competitor (IMF Bentham, LCM) accounting policies as evidentiary contrast. Memorable rhetorical devices: 'sprinting on a treadmill' metaphor for fair-value-driven growth, 'cockroaches in plain sight' line on metric manipulation, and a closing comparison table of denial-then-collapse responses from prior MW targets (Orient Paper, Sino-Forest, Noble Group, IQE). Heavy governance attack: notes BUR's CFO is Chris Bogart's wife. No price target or quantified upside disclosed; thesis is qualitative + regulatory. Stake size not disclosed in this document.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "~9% currently vs. 2% management fee under original closed-end-fund structure", "metric": "Expense ratio on invested capital" }, { "detail": "Booked at 113% in 2013 annual report; raised to 195% by end-2017; final outcome ~18% ROIC and 3% IRR", "metric": "Napo (2011 vintage) reported ROIC" }, { "detail": "104% IRR booked in 2013 vs. eventual 3% IRR after Invesco-led bailout", "metric": "Napo reported IRR" }, { "detail": "£90m (2013), £100m (2016), £175m (June 2017), £310m equity (2018), all referencing 2011 vintage performance", "metric": "Retail bond raises" }, { "detail": "Management confirmed 52% of core litigation assets are Fair Value Gains (~108% ROIC already recognized)", "metric": "Fair Value Gains share of core litigation assets" }, { "detail": "2018 cash proceeds $596m vs. $254m of recoveries implied by performance table", "metric": "Cash flow vs. investment performance discrepancy" }, { "detail": "31% in 2018 vs. 12% in 2017; non-Level 3 realizations 14% in 2018 vs. 0% in 2017", "metric": "Non-Level 3 share of investment additions" }, { "detail": "Approximately $570,000 per employee, with Bogart/Molot pay undisclosed", "metric": "Average employee comp (LTM)" } ], "closingAsk": "Investors should not be reassured by BUR's denials, which mirror the rebuttals Muddy Waters has heard from prior targets (Orient Paper, Sino-Forest, Noble Group, IQE) that ultimately collapsed.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:39:27+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 94.2441, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Forced disclosure and an FCA inquiry would expose the gap between accounting profits and cash, validate the short, and re-rate BUR sharply lower as the mark-to-model premium collapses.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "BUR aggressively marks cases up to generate non-cash fair-value profits, Enron-style", "Non-IFRS ROIC and IRR metrics are self-defined and manipulated to justify capital raises", "Fragile balance sheet with no guardrails: CFO is married to the CEO and board is ossified" ], "scqaSituation": "Burford Capital is a UK-listed litigation finance pioneer that grew rapidly by funding lawsuits and reporting non-IFRS ROIC and IRR metrics, raising hundreds of millions of pounds in retail bonds and equity.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters' follow-up rebuts Burford Capital's response to its August 7 short report, arguing the response was distraction not refutation. Carson Block reiterates that BUR aggressively marks litigation assets up under IFRS 9, then engineers non-IFRS ROIC and IRR metrics to justify those fair-value gains and raise hundreds of millions in retail bonds and equity. He cites the Napo/Jaguar case where BUR booked a 113% ROIC in 2013 only to deliver a final 18% ROIC and 3% IRR after an Invesco-led bailout, and argues 52% of core litigation assets are now Fair Value Gains, including a likely fully-marked Petersen. With the CFO married to the CEO and a board no longer deemed independent, BUR has no guardrails, evoking Enron and Noble Group's mark-to-model collapses.", "primaryDemands": [ "FCA should investigate BUR's conduct in Napo and its presentation of return metrics", "BUR should disclose where Petersen is marked as of H1 2019", "BUR should disclose all Gross Fair Value Gains by period since 2012 and going forward", "BUR should reconcile cash flows to its investment performance table for historical and future periods", "BUR should release its compensation history for Bogart and Molot", "BUR should install real governance guardrails (independent CFO and directors)" ], "scqaResolution": "The UK FCA should investigate BUR's Napo conduct, ROIC/IRR presentation, and Petersen marks; BUR should disclose Gross Fair Value Gains since 2012, reconcile cash flows, and release compensation history.", "thesisOneLiner": "Burford's rebuttal confirms it: aggressive mark-to-model fair-value gains, manipulated 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First, the 2% management fee, as compared to BUR’s present ~9% expense ratio on (per our adjustments) BUR’s invested capital. We will come back to this point – particularly with respect to compensation expense. The second point is that cash was king.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:14.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0e4e7df3-4511-4102-a732-18242c4cbb91", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Leave it to former trial lawyers to talk so much, and yet say so little. BUR’s written response and numbing two-hour call did nothing to dispel our view that BUR a) aggressively marks its cases up to generate non-cash profits, b) manipulates its (non-IFRS) ROIC and IRR metrics in order to justify its fair value gains, c) deliberately confuses investors about the extent of its fair value gains in each period, and d) has a fragile balance sheet with too much leverage, particularly given the excessive costs the business runs (of which a significant portion could be management compensation). Moreover, we believe BUR is effectively sprinting on a treadmill whereby it is growing its portfolio aggressively not because there are so many great opportunities; but, rather because it has so aggressively taken fair value gains that sap the business of future earnings power, and it therefore needs to add litigation assets to the balance sheet in order to take more fair value gains. 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It was a closed-end fund that was managed by a privately-owned management company, Burford Group Ltd. Chris Bogart was an owner of the management company. The management company received a 2% management fee per year, and a 20% incentive fee (after an 8% high water mark). Performance and the incentive fees were calculated based on “Cash Net Asset Value”, which as the name implied, excluded Fair Value Gains.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:14.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "910312f9-1a8d-476c-970e-ac997cae3fff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We welcome scrutiny by the Financial Conduct Authority on the Burford matter. We believe that management’s conduct has possibly given rise to sanctions claims by the FCA. Muddy Waters stands ready to assist the FCA in any inquiry, and as has been the case for the past nine years of our short activism, we have nothing to hide regarding our own actions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:14.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c51cbb78-aa79-42cd-8c8f-d86f5fd7c7c9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "There’s no validity to anything in the [Muddy Waters] report.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:14.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a8156b13-4a4f-4df0-88d5-81d5259cd137", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“There’s no validity to anything in the [Muddy Waters] report.” — John Lazar, Burford Director", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a2-7697310b0cec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 Bloomberg transcript, p. 3. 2 We reiterate our view that we do not believe the instances of fraud that were identified with Enron were actually responsible for Enron’s collapse, and therefore, our analogizing of BUR to Enron does not mean that we accuse BUR of illegal accounting. 3 Burford IPO prospectus. 4 Burford IPO prospectus, p. 86. 5 H1 2019 Investments of $1,768.4 million, minus $202.2 million third party interests, reduced by 43.8%, which equals an adjusted invested capital base of $880.3 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Of course, without the bailout led by Invesco, Napo would have been a complete loss.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a2-43b7917cd8f8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "list", "text": "On June 1, 2017, BUR issued another retail bond of £175 million while showing the 2011 vintage with a ROIC of 75% and IRR of 23%, while knowing that:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0d303f82-77cf-4ec1-9592-918741f80aff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "list", "text": "BUR launched another retail bond offering in January 2018, and raised £310 million in equity in 2018.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1437fe5a-51fc-43ea-9665-4e9adf2cd99e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "list", "text": "In part based on its representation of the 2011 vintage’s performance, just months after issuing the 2013 annual report, BUR issued a retail bond of £90 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "188dd5cf-0072-4a0c-8d46-5327dc1f3d18", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "list", "text": "At the end of 2017, with Jaguar shares having declined 76.2% from August 1, 2017, BUR moved Napo’s ROIC up to 195%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "45d38aac-c4d5-43a3-af8f-131f538acde2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The ROIC turned out to be only 18% and IRR 3%. Of course, without the bailout led by Invesco, Napo would have been a complete loss. Had either a complete loss or 18% ROIC / 3% IRR been reflected in the 2013 or 2014 annual reports, we speculate that Messrs. 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The fact that BUR quietly trued this disclosure up in 2019 does nothing to atone for the false impression of vintage success under which it raised those funds.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b7721016-1994-43fc-bc90-213bf1cc2aec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "BUR's supposed “entitlement” until the Invesco-led bailout in 2017. Yet, the case was booked in the 2013 annual report with a 113% ROIC and 104% IRR, which raised the vintage’s overall ROIC from an abysmal 2.9% to 53%, and produced a supposed 31% IRR.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ceb43c5b-23a3-4dab-bb12-e663d8d06250", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In terms of the motivations of Invesco and Burford when bailing out the Napo investment, we are incredulous that the parties were truly excited about owning Jaguar Health shares. It is questionable that they really perceived changing the corporate form would change the prospects of Napo’s drug, Fulyzaq®, which had so far done little but put Napo on the verge of bankruptcy. The fact that Jaguar’s share price went straight down from August 1, 2017 (the day after the", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:09.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4a0c4fd-5d41-42a8-a8aa-090849ea7c05", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "16 https://www.burfordcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Final-Prospectus3.pdf\n17 Burford Capital 2016 Annual Report, p. 11.\n18 Equity raise source: Bloomberg.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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BUR is responsible for building its models – not the attorneys litigating Petersen. We give zero credence to the notion that, particularly when there are established market prices for the Petersen claim, giving the product of BUR’s fair value model would compromise attorney work product. Moreover, based on YPF’s U.S.-listed shares trading down 30% yesterday on Argentine political news, we posit that the value of this claim is not just a legal determination – it also involves handicapping Argentine politics.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:07.365+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d735089d-277a-419e-ad4f-1bfb6c10d31a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.068, "w": 0.772, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.356 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Therefore, based on our suspicion that Petersen is already fairly fully marked, we believe that BUR’s imperative to grow is really about repaying the fair value gains of the past. 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It is critical for investors to understand the Net Realized Gains vs. Realized Gains issue...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:06.634+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "854cb916-7552-4d9c-aa82-951888c2cdcf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "This issue from our perspective is an attempt to sow confusion where none exists. We have been perfectly clear about how our IFRS value accounting works. — Chris Bogart", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a4-419f186b29c8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "22 https://www.burfordcapital.com/investors/investor-information/financial-reporting-and-investment-valuation/ 23 Bloomberg transcript, p. 24.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a2-c7f95083e187", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If a company having a balance sheet loaded with Level 3 fair value assets and whose senior management owns a significant stake is to avoid giving into the temptation that, in our view, doomed Enron and Noble Group (among others), it would seemingly need real \"guardrails\" – i.e., at the least, a truly independent CFO and directors. With the CFO married to the CEO, and all of the directors no longer deemed independent under the UK Corporate Governance Code, we see no such guardrails in place. Management seemed unrepentant about that, and offered no concrete assurance of improving. 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We suspect that the cash flow statement is showing a significant amount of inflows and outflows from the sales and purchases of securities (Level 1 assets). Cash inflows come substantially from realizations, while cash outflows correspond to investment additions. To this point, in 2018, $232 million of net investment additions consisted of non-Level 3 assets: that is 31% of total investment additions. This 31% of total additions that was non-Level 3 compares with just 12% the year prior. Likewise, non-Level 3 realizations went from 0% of total 2017 realizations of $363 million to 14% of the $628 million in 2018 realizations. In this way, BUR realized Level 1 and Level 2 assets, which we suspect to be primarily level 1, to account for 34% of the year-on-year growth in realizations this past year. If we are correct, the cash inflows from Level 1 assets give a false impression of the amount of cash BUR generates during each period from its core litigation finance business. Even so, such activity would only account for about a quarter of the discrepancy between BUR's cash flows and its stated investment recoveries. We call upon BUR to reconcile cash flows to the investment performance table for historical periods and going forward.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.954+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b741eeaf-12ac-40be-a251-3020ac451ef2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We call upon BUR to disclose all Gross Fair Value Gains by period since, and including, 2012; and, to continue to do so going forward. If BUR were to do this, it would go a long way toward disproving (or much more likely) proving our criticisms of BUR's accounting.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.954+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bb82b143-7318-4fb8-86ef-a2a55709725c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "An analyst pointed out on the call that BUR's cash flows show far greater realizations than does the investment performance table BUR presents. BUR's cash flow statement shows 2018 net proceeds received of $596 million. The 2018 investment performance table, however shows investment recoveries to date of $1,027 million versus $773 million as of the year prior. This yields $254 million in 2018 recoveries, which amounts to less than half of BUR's net proceeds in that year. Management provided no detailed explanation for this discrepancy.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.954+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f5ffd742-794c-4aca-bf33-efe55083cede", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "24-31: Citations from Bloomberg and Burford Capital Annual Reports.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This is a completely false accusation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.335+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "95ca3b19-8a0e-4713-9041-7786ca5bc3ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "First, if the company is indeed “sprinting on the treadmill”, then management might be trying to play for as much time as possible in the hopes that it can invest in another Petersen-size winner.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.335+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c46a90ac-e808-48e1-b784-028286f40529", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "BUR repeatedly dropped the name of its auditor, Ernst & Young, in its responses. First, we have repeatedly witnessed “Big 4” auditors issue unqualified opinions on companies that turn out to be frauds.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.335+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d7e59d00-c3b9-4334-a39b-a1d7dc306c78", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As for BUR’s other comments, they are textbook for companies we have exposed for various problematic – even illegal – practices.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:08.335+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e8977898-1abc-42ed-a6ce-85da7f1095b8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "32 See video of Carson Block / Joshua Mitts April 10, 2019 debate at https://www.law.berkeley.edu/research/business/events/previous-events/fraud-in-the-bull-market-2/fraud-in-the-bull-market-videos/", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Making the kind of statements we make takes rock-solid conviction in our work because in the real world, speech is far less “free” for critics. That we are still here all these years later, and despite the powerful enemies we have made, speaks volumes about the quality of our work.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:11.134+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d40cdc22-18ef-4b49-bc00-ca0df3965c29", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Our balance sheet has never been stronger or more liquid. As at the end of December 2014, our debt to capitalizations was at a historic low of 38%. 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