{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93", "slug": "a08bb897003a", "title": "Inogen, Inc. (INGN)", "subtitle": "Carson Block · 2019-02", "author": "Carson Block", "date": "2019-02-08 00:00:00", "pageCount": 27, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Inogen, Inc.", "targetTicker": "INGN", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93", "slug": "a08bb897003a", "title": "Inogen, Inc. 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The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "f30d187f-1b8b-4155-beec-1499e98cbdf4", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Sum of parts", "slug": "sum-of-parts", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "canonId": "019dd9e1-51e5-73ad-9d1e-e77d4afe3125", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-9ecd-71db-8fa1-5f5eff36697f", "description": "You break the target into its constituent businesses or asset classes, value\neach separately against its own peer set, and show that the total is\nmaterially greater than the current market capitalisation. The \"gap\" is the\nconglomerate discount — or worse, accounting opacity hiding a crown-jewel\nasset.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "fe01c076-0a28-416c-b0f2-ce0f2f0791de", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For breakup / spin-off theses", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It forces the market to confront **mismatched valuation multiples**:\n \"this company trades like X but owns Y, which trades at", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. 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Also: titles that overreach the chart's evidence, multi-claim X-grew-but-Y-fell welded titles, and mechanical repetition of the same X-drove-Y template across the deck.", "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": "Forces the deck to carry its argument in the title bar so a senior reader can extract the recommendation without opening a single slide; converts a binder of topics into a navigable pyramid where every slide is a node defending the apex." } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "65b72620-12da-4bd7-9eef-cafba3936f45", "evidence": "The slide explicitly outlines a discrepancy between management claims and independent data to justify a short position.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:36.539+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 3, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "c4d48046-bb37-40fb-9568-68055c71bc40", "evidence": "Critique of 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"pageNumber": 8, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "0813dab8-b7df-4c36-977b-ca558ddeb31b", "evidence": "The slide explicitly contrasts past management claims with current omissions and narrative shifts.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:37.056+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction" }, { "matchId": "671710e4-36c2-4f66-830a-8d122779753e", "evidence": "Contrasting two management quotes from different time periods regarding the same data source.", "framework": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:37.697+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction" }, { "matchId": "c2852380-71f7-4999-ba37-5ea8e00a02f4", "evidence": "The slide 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"framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:39.271+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 15, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "9bf22e55-462c-4560-bb9e-2fc60ea68551", "evidence": "exposing how analysts mistook allowed charges in thousands of dollars for patient counts", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:53:53.53+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.5-flash", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 16, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "9e5f26da-d377-46e6-bad7-9a5249eecffb", "evidence": "The slide explicitly deconstructs the math used by management to justify a 'fictitious' market size.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:38.658+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 17, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "df20d7d2-23a5-4389-b3d6-c3a8fa8189da", "evidence": "Contradicting management claims with external survey data to highlight potential overstatement.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:41.886+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 18, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "9f7e28fa-46a6-4046-9a7a-0a4b20a79580", "evidence": "The slide explicitly challenges the credibility of company claims by identifying a potential double-counting error in billing codes.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:42.587+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 19, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "acabd5be-d149-4d35-b007-499cfb550f4b", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies a 'likely error' in the company's calculation to discredit their market penetration claims.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:39.579+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 20, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "9e47a3ef-8fd3-47a6-b812-9e2275b5fcff", "evidence": "The slide breaks down total market opportunity into specific patient segments and channel-specific unit sales.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:39.304+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "frameworkName": "decomposition" }, { "matchId": "caa9e6cb-7153-43ef-ab95-39560ebe2450", "evidence": "Contrasts management's stated investment rationale with the author's interpretation of margin pressure.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:49.085+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 24, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" }, { "matchId": "65c9b996-6fcb-4698-b7bb-4b6a42aed904", "evidence": "Direct comparison of product specs and price between Inogen and competitors.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:40.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 25, "frameworkName": "comparison_frame" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Muddy Waters short report format: cover with Carson Block byline and disclaimer (p1), summary box with target price (p2), Richard Pryor 'lyin' eyes' epigraph opener (p3), then dense prose with embedded CMS data tables, screenshots of management slides as exhibits, and quoted contradictions from earnings calls. The most cinematic rhetorical move is the WinterGreen takedown (pp11-13): plagiarism from the NYT shown side-by-side, the Prudential '150-year-olds' billboard reproduced, and the 'federal judges working past 100' quote. Closing peer-comp valuation table with $46 target and -67% return on final page. Document type chosen as research_note (text-dominant) rather than full_deck. visual_quality=2 because layout is plain Word/PDF body text with utilitarian charts, not deck-style design.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Muddy Waters: 1.3M vs management/WinterGreen: 3M+ (57% gap)", "metric": "U.S. oxygen therapy TAM (users)" }, { "detail": "-2.6% (shrinking) vs management claim of 7-10% growth", "metric": "U.S. oxygen therapy market CAGR 2010-2017" }, { "detail": "+177 bps; without it gross margin would have declined YoY", "metric": "Q3 2018 gross margin uplift from provision release" }, { "detail": "Rose from 3.1% to 7.8% from 2016 through Q3 2018", "metric": "Advertising as % of revenue" }, { "detail": "INGN claims 73%; correct CMS reading yields 67%", "metric": "Ambulatory share of oxygen patients" }, { "detail": "Declined from $2,339 (2013) to $1,674 (9M2018)", "metric": "Inogen ASP" }, { "detail": "~176,696 units; total peak ~231,000 globally; ~$400M peak revenue", "metric": "Peak U.S. unit sales" }, { "detail": "21x forward P/E in line with no-growth med-device peers (RMD, XRAY, BABY, GETIB, HRC, BTG)", "metric": "Target valuation multiple" }, { "detail": "$46 vs $139.74, -67%", "metric": "Target price / downside" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell or short INGN to a $46 price target, reflecting 67% downside as the company de-rates to a no-growth medical-device multiple.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:33:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 107.11419, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "At peak earnings of ~$47M with no growth, INGN deserves a 21x P/E like saturated medical-device peers, implying a $46 target price and 67% downside from $139.74.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Real U.S. TAM is 1.3M users, 57% below management's 3M+ claim", "Oxygen therapy market actually shrinking at -2.6% CAGR, not growing 7-10%", "Q3 2018 gross margin boosted 177 bps via accounting gimmicks masking decline" ], "scqaSituation": "Inogen sells portable oxygen concentrators (POCs) at a 50x+ multiple, supported by a story of a $3-4bn U.S. TAM with 3M+ ambulatory oxygen users growing 7-10% annually and only ~11% POC penetration.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters is short Inogen because management has manufactured a false growth narrative around a Total Addressable Market it claims is 3+ million U.S. ambulatory oxygen users growing 7-10%. Using CMS Medicare data, Muddy Waters calculates the real U.S. TAM at roughly 1.3 million users and shows the market actually contracted at a -2.6% CAGR from 2010 to 2017. The 3-million figure traces back to WinterGreen Research, an obscure firm whose 2017 report contains plagiarism from the New York Times, citations of a non-existent Prudential 150-year-old projection, and middle-school-grade prose. Compressing margins, a 177-bps Q3 2018 provision-release gimmick, ballooning ad spend, and a B2B mix shift signal saturation; Muddy Waters models peak sales of ~$400M in 2019/2020 and values INGN at $46 versus $139.74, a 67% decline.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell INGN shares: target $46 (-67% downside)", "Discount management TAM and growth claims based on WinterGreen Research", "Recognize peak sales arriving in 2019 or 2020 and impending de-rating" ], "scqaResolution": "Short INGN: discredit the WinterGreen-sourced TAM narrative, expose the Q3 2018 provision-release accounting gimmicks, and recognize that B2B mix shift and saturating penetration force peak sales in 2019 or 2020.", "thesisOneLiner": "Inogen's growth story rests on a fabricated TAM sourced from a plagiarism-riddled WinterGreen report; real market is shrinking, peak sales arrive 2019-2020, target $46 (-67%).", "precedentsCited": [], "scqaComplication": "CMS Medicare data shows the real U.S. TAM is only ~1.3M users and is shrinking at -2.6% CAGR; the 3M figure comes from WinterGreen Research, a report riddled with plagiarism, typos, and impossible claims like 150-year-old federal judges.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 2, 3, 10, 13, 14, 27 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "ResMed", "Dentsply Sirona", "Natus Medical", "Getinge", "Hill-Rom Holdings", "BTG plc" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "Standard legal boilerplate for investment research firm.", "function": "other", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/vbf1M9fyh56QVaLGAebmNNbImAm_cOAxHunY5haoFME/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9hMDhiYjg5NzAwM2EvcDAwMS5qcGc", "rawType": "appendix_disclosure", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "appendix_disclosure", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Appendix disclosure", "slug": "appendix_disclosure", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-07b2-7549-8e8b-932a19f6e616", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "other", "functionCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-15e1-75bc-99dc-07732380e2ce", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 10, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 337, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Standard legal boilerplate for investment research firm.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "logo_grid" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:35.407+00", "seconds": 2.353, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b98bce058d93.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "These Terms of Use govern current reports published by Muddy Waters Research and supersede any prior Terms of Use for older reports of Muddy Waters Research, which you may download from the Muddy Waters Research's website.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:35.407+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e9f4674b-ef41-4ef2-9545-90dba76e1c4c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The reports on this website have been prepared by Muddy Waters Capital LLC... 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We reviewed the 2017 WinterGreen report, and frankly feel it is middle school student quality, replete with misspellings, poor grammar, bizarre statements of fact, and even outright plagiarism from the New York Times. 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Without these shenanigans, gross margins would have declined YoY in Q3 2018. 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(INGN) because we believe management has created an egregiously false narrative about the TAM size and growth. We estimate the U.S. market is 1.3 million users and is actually shrinking at a CAGR of -2.6%. 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We estimate that from 2010 to 2017, the market shrank at a CAGR of -2.6%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:36.539+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7481ddde-f748-4a0e-b08c-63d357a1e13f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The thoroughly captured sell-side is picking up the slack though. Analysts are still trumpeting three million user TAM / 7%-10% growth despite these issues.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:36.539+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b8e6e0c-0f29-4ea7-a8f0-9a2f26e2cf8a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Muddy Waters is short Inogen, Inc. (INGN) because we believe management has created an egregiously false narrative about the Total Addressable Market (“TAM”) size and growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:36.539+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "88f0288d-752c-4ccd-bbca-98f5505efee9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "INGN embodies much of what is dysfunctional about today’s capital markets: Misleading statements by management, shoddy market research presented as authoritative, and significant enrichment of insiders.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:36.539+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bbf50e9b-bfdb-493d-ae57-c851c9de6e3a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It appears that management became aware of investor concerns about its market estimates late last year. 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INGN S-1 filed November 27, 2013, p. 2. 2. A December 19, 2018 JP Morgan report. 3. INGN November 2018 investor presentation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We see China as unlikely to materially change the picture... At our forecast of peak earnings, we value INGN at $46 per share, a 67% decrease from its current price.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:37.596+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "105c3ee9-1b91-497d-b184-db7dd7bde257", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.146 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The problems with INGN's blue sky story don't stop there... INGN management states that the potential penetration rate among ambulatory oxygen users is 90%... 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We reviewed the 2017 WinterGreen report, and were flabbergasted that this work has served as the basis for TAM size and growth estimates the company and analysts use.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:44.818+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2a996406-bd84-42e6-b867-c320aee92814", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.665 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We account for “capped” patients by adding back in the 18% of patients that are outside of the cap, according to management. 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This is a patient population that is still using oxygen therapy, but has been on it for over 36 months, which no longer entitles their suppliers to a Medicare reimbursement, other than for filling tanks. 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So that’s why we see this as a big opportunity on the retail side”, we are tempted to send Mr. Wilkinson a copy of “Doing Business in China for Dummies”, which was co-authored by Muddy Waters founder and CIO, Carson Block.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:40.604+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b0e04cb-18e1-4013-9552-a6770625157d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "In China where it’s not reimbursed and then even if it’s a small percentage that can afford it, you still have a really big number. 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