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Word-processor memo style (not a deck) — pages are body text with embedded reconciliation tables, no chart-craft. Carson Block credited as Director of Research on the cover/disclaimer; signature is the firm. Centerpiece is an algebraic enrollment/ASP model (e_s, e_o, e_x) used to falsify CFO Rong Luo's 52.4% Peiyou growth claim via four reconciliation methods. No stake/price target disclosed in this installment; standard MW Terms of Use disclose short position. Page count metadata says 11; printed footers say 'Page X of 10' (cover + 10 body pages).", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "-4.5% YoY under Method 1, vs CFO-implied 52.4%", "metric": "Peiyou offline Q3 FY2018 revenue growth (modeled)" }, { "detail": "-3.4% YoY under Method 1 with 3% offline ASP growth", "metric": "Peiyou offline Q4 FY2018 revenue growth (modeled)" }, { "detail": "Q3 +28.7% / Q4 +36.8% — contradicts disclosed 9.9% decline", "metric": "Implied small-class ASP growth (Method 2)" }, { "detail": "-10.2% to -11.2% under high-single-digit ASP scenarios", "metric": "Peiyou offline enrollment growth Q3 FY2018" }, { "detail": "~73% of TAL revenue (FY2018 Q3-Q4)", "metric": "Small class share of total revenue" }, { "detail": "Disclosed ~40% in Q3; no longer disclosed in Q4", "metric": "Peiyou online ASP discount to offline" }, { "detail": "+91.7% YoY (per TAL)", "metric": "Total Peiyou enrollment growth FY2018 Q3" } ], "closingAsk": "TAL must disclose quarterly Peiyou online and offline enrollments and ASPs for FY2017-FY2019 — 'we dare it to.'", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:32:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 78.38604, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "No explicit price target; the implication is that exposing flat-to-negative core Peiyou growth, on top of prior alleged profit fabrication, undermines TAL's premium growth multiple and supports a continued short.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Peiyou offline Q3 revenue YoY growth was likely negative, contradicting CFO's 'healthy' framing", "No reasonable model reconciles TAL's FY2018 Q3 and Q4 Peiyou disclosures with management statements", "TAL stopped disclosing Peiyou online's ASP discount in Q4, decreasing transparency under pressure" ], "scqaSituation": "TAL Education's Peiyou small-class tutoring unit generates roughly three-quarters of revenue and is portrayed by management as a healthy growth engine, with CFO Rong Luo citing 52.4% small-class revenue growth in FY2018 Q3.", "thesisSummary": "Building on prior reports alleging fraudulent profits, Muddy Waters argues TAL Education is also misleading investors about the health of its core Peiyou tutoring segment. Using a quarterly model that solves for enrollments and ASPs across small-class, one-on-one and Xueersi.com online units back to FY2015, Muddy Waters tests four reconciliation methods against TAL's FY2018 Q3 and Q4 disclosures and CFO Rong Luo's claim that Peiyou offline revenue grew 52.4% and remained 'stable.' Every method yields either negative Peiyou offline YoY revenue growth (-3.4% to -4.5%), shrinking offline enrollments, or sequential declines in Peiyou online — none consistent with management's narrative. Muddy Waters concludes TAL cannot grow its core business cleanly, likely due to scale ceilings and online disruption, and that its declining FY2018 disclosures are designed to obscure this reality.", "primaryDemands": [ "TAL must disclose Peiyou online and offline enrollments and ASPs by quarter for FY2017-FY2019", "Investors should treat TAL's disclosures and management commentary as unreliable" ], "scqaResolution": "TAL must publish quarterly Peiyou online and offline enrollments and ASPs for FY2017-FY2019 so investors can verify segment health rather than rely on management's incongruous commentary.", "thesisOneLiner": "TAL Education's core Peiyou business is shrinking, not 'healthy' as CFO Rong Luo claims; under every reasonable model TAL's FY2018 Q3-Q4 disclosures fail to reconcile.", "precedentsCited": [], "scqaComplication": "TAL reports its segments as one bucket and stopped disclosing Peiyou online's ASP discount in Q4, while every model Muddy Waters builds shows Peiyou offline revenue and enrollments actually declined in FY2018 Q3-Q4.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 2, 3, 5, 7, 11 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [], "valuationFrameworks": [ "not_shown" ], "visualCraftInterest": 1 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "Standard legal disclaimer for investment research firm.", "function": "other", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/05LER72a_B0l7BJrtru_quNLbNoDJV0N8BUhT3U5T3o/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy81MGJjYjQ5N2UzODEvcDAwMS5qcGc", "rawType": "disclaimer", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "disclaimer", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0801-727b-b98a-5ed095aeee78", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "other", "functionCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-15e1-75bc-99dc-07732380e2ce", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 10, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 337, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Standard legal disclaimer for investment research firm.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:44.562+00", "seconds": 6.601, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b7a743eff32e/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b7a743eff32e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b7a743eff32e#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-b7a743eff32e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "These Terms of Use govern current reports published by Muddy Waters Research and supersede any prior Terms of Use for older reports of Muddy Waters Research, which you may download from the Muddy Waters Research's website.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:44.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3b86759b-2652-4f7d-82c3-66d62a03c2d4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.75, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The reports on this website have been prepared by Muddy Waters Capital LLC... 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TAL's core Peiyou business appears to be in decline.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:43.884+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "36b69bbb-df02-4daf-9c63-95e12f980c11", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "TAL FY2018 20-F, p. F-75, TAL FY2017 20-F, p. F-78, TAL FY2011 20-F, p. F-39, etc.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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These do not reconcile with TAL’s disclosures and management statements, depending on which of them you accept as accurate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:49+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a885-3a2875e2beac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.204, "x": 0.398, "y": 0.435 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "e_s · a_s = 100,344,000\ne_o · a_o = 18,356,000\ne_x · a_x = 3,671,000\ne_s + e_o + e_x = 407,970\ne_x = .13 · 407,970", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:42.4+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0a9334f2-bd06-43a6-88be-2b8dbcabff12", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.575 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "However, we need as many equations as we have variables. Our fieldwork showed that one-on-one FY2018 ASPs were about 3x small-class ASPs, a ratio that we extrapolate back to FY2015. This data point allows us to solve the system of equations:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:42.4+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3d71d570-8c6c-4106-883a-5a1028394f5c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.135 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We modeled Peiyou's respective offline and online enrollments and ASPs through FY2018 Q4. These do not reconcile with TAL's disclosures and management statements, depending on which of them you accept as accurate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:42.4+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5b743f71-7789-4750-8d40-95a0b3c8f9ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.195 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "To construct this model, we went back to FY2015 and built forward. 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If we assume this means 3% ASP growth and apply Method 1 to Q4 results, we get that Peiyou offline revenue declined by 3.4% YoY...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:42.755+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d550892c-5f49-44ea-adcd-9339e7b52790", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "A Deutsche Bank analyst note dated April 27, 2018, reports that the pricing discount of the Peiyou online business is c.30%. A Jefferies analyst note, also dated April 27, 2018, reports that the pricing discount of the Peiyou online business is still 40%. — Deutsche Bank / Jefferies", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:06:50+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0397-72dc-a885-d4e9d3d9a339", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "9 TAL FY2018, Q4 earnings call.\n10 A Deutsche Bank analyst note dated April 27, 2018, reports that the pricing discount of the Peiyou online business is c.30%. A Jefferies analyst note, also dated April 27, 2018, reports that the pricing discount...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Total Peiyou was 73% of revenue. Total Peiyou enrollments grew 72% YoY. 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Whereas before we could verify, now we just have to trust. TAL's incongruous utterances have shown they are not a company that merits investor faith.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:42.711+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "667885cc-9998-4df7-baf5-87d539548a67", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.325 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "No matter which offline ASP growth values or reasonable Peiyou online-offline discount selections we made, one of three things happened: either Peiyou offline revenue declined year-over-year, Peiyou online revenue declined sequentially quarter-on-quarter, or all were flat. 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