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Very short, math-driven note focused on a single argument: common-sizing TAL's own Peiyou Q3 disclosures forces offline enrollment to be declining. Visually plain — serif title text, bullet body, gold/brown MW header bar; no charts. Slide 4 (common-size table) and slide 6 (sensitivity bullets) carry the analytical payload; slide 8 teases the next report alleging fabrication. No stake disclosed; firm publishes as short-seller, posture and short position implicit per disclaimer. No named human author.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "+91.7% as disclosed by TAL", "metric": "Total enrollment YoY growth (Q3 2018)" }, { "detail": "+62.4% as disclosed by TAL", "metric": "Total revenue YoY growth (Q3 2018)" }, { "detail": "Online ASPs ~40% lower than offline in quarter", "metric": "Online vs offline ASP" }, { "detail": "TAL described as 'high single digit'", "metric": "Offline ASP YoY growth" }, { "detail": "Declined 4.5% (at 6% ASP), 9.9% (at 7.5%), or 15.1% (at 9%)", "metric": "Implied Peiyou offline enrollment change" } ], "closingAsk": "Read our forthcoming report detailing why we believe TAL has fabricated Peiyou results.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:31:46+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 65.83367, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "If Peiyou is shrinking and results are fabricated, TAL's reported growth and valuation premium collapse, creating substantial downside for long shareholders and validating the short.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "TAL's own Q3 disclosures imply Peiyou offline enrollment actually declined YoY", "Common-size model: at 'high single digit' offline ASP growth, offline enrollment fell 4.5%-15.1%", "TAL refused to disclose online/offline ASP ratio on Q4 call after MW shared the model with IR" ], "scqaSituation": "TAL Education Group is a Chinese K-12 tutoring leader whose Peiyou offline brand is the legacy growth engine, with management touting accelerating total enrollment growth (+91.7% YoY in Q3 2018).", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters argues that TAL Education's Peiyou (offline tutoring) segment is shrinking, not growing as management claims. 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In relation to the United Kingdom, the research and materials on this website are being issued only to, and are directed only at, persons who are Permitted Recipients and, without prejudice to any other restrictions or warnings set out in these Terms of Use, persons who are not Permitted Recipients must not act or rely on the information contained in any of the research or materials on this website.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:45.898+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4d946d10-9486-4954-857e-79b0ca60aec9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.84, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "The research and reports presented on this website express the opinion of the applicable Muddy Waters Entity only. 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With respect to their respective research reports, Muddy Waters Research and Muddy Waters Capital makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. Further, any report on this site contains a very large measure of analysis and opinion. 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If you have obtained research published by Muddy Waters Research or Muddy Waters Capital in any manner other than by download from that link, you may not read such research without going to that link and agreeing to the Terms of Use. You further agree that any dispute between you and Muddy Waters Research and its affiliates arising from or related to this report and / or the Muddy Waters Research website or viewing the material hereon shall be governed by the laws of the State of California, without regard to any conflict of law provisions. You knowingly and independently agree to submit to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the state and federal courts located in San Francisco, California and waive your right to any other jurisdiction or applicable law, given that Muddy Waters Research and its affiliates are based in San Francisco, California. The failure of Muddy Waters Research or Muddy Waters Capital to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of this right or provision. You agree that each Muddy Waters Related Person is a third-party beneficiary to these Terms of Use. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision and rule that the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect, in particular as to this governing law and jurisdiction provision. You agree that regardless of any statute or law to the contrary, any claim or cause of action arising out of or related to this website or the material on this website must be filed within one (1) year after the occurrence of the alleged harm that gave rise to such claim or cause of action, or such claim or cause of action be forever barred.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:49:45.898+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6b929c73-af9f-414a-b284-4767c80e9aac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.84, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "In no event shall Muddy Waters Research, Muddy Waters Capital or any Muddy Waters Related Persons be liable for any claims, losses, costs or damages of any kind, including direct, indirect, punitive, exemplary, incidental, special or, consequential damages, arising out of or in any way connected with any information on this website. 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