{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "slug": "562f89e5e11c", "title": "Noble Group (NOBL)", "subtitle": "Carson C. Block · 2015-04", "author": "Carson C. Block", "date": "2015-04-09 00:00:00", "pageCount": 14, "kind": "research-note", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Noble Group", "targetTicker": "NOBL", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "slug": "562f89e5e11c", "title": "Noble Group (NOBL)", "rawTitle": "MW NOBL 04092015", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson C. Block", "authorDisplay": "Carson C. Block", "kind": { "slug": "research-note", "label": "Research note" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2015-04-MW_NOBL_04092015.pdf", "sourceUrl": "http://www.muddywatersresearch.com", "sourceDate": "2015-09-04 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2015-04-09 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 19:16:09+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 14, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Noble Group", "targetTicker": "NOBL", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/562f89e5e11c", "activist_firm": "Muddy Waters", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 107.38876175880432 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 14, "pagesIndexed": 14, "pagesWithImages": 14, "pagesWithMetadata": 14, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 100, "chartCount": 0, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 3, "documentToolMatches": 3, "frameworkMatches": 10, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 1, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "evidence": "The document presents a critical analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting discrepancies and questionable transactions.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.71112+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 2, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "477d7208-654b-4b18-9a4e-9ea14acaa9b1", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a critique of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting a $46.4 million gain and a need to shower.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. Used by AIDA, Monroes, Pixar Pitch, Overcoming the Monster." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "0ae25f44-6e73-4c25-ba85-72ade228048e", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 14, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 11, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "44de4707-7114-4d90-9234-8e75bcf94a83", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a conclusion and analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting areas of concern.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Narrative", "categorySlug": "narrative" }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "a8c5d6bd-dcbb-4c17-94d8-b3231466fc34", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "8ead9901-66ee-4066-86c2-429e95858c79", "evidence": "Noble Group management — Yusuf Alireza (CEO) and Robert van der Zalm (CFO)", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "593220e5-88e5-475c-9abd-340de86c0dae", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.005477+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "78f135e2-200b-43a8-b1d3-efc03a276a0e", "evidence": "The slide systematically presents red flags and contradictions in financial reporting to allege fraud.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "d49dbe03-7790-4a41-9585-77878595a553", "evidence": "The text explicitly identifies a discrepancy between reported gains and the underlying accounting treatment of negative goodwill.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.293+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "36a31754-844c-4b9e-a788-c855626f8959", "evidence": "The slide systematically deconstructs a series of transactions to allege financial manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "a42a186f-ba50-4e65-a42b-3cc1005422e2", "evidence": "The text explicitly investigates and exposes questionable accounting and potential related-party conflicts.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "8646b87e-3e75-4a6c-a0a7-04231bdfe7a9", "evidence": "The text explicitly argues that the company is using sham transactions and VIE structures to manipulate financials.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "b937dab2-dba3-4997-838a-3f78c401403e", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies 'deceptive behavior' and analyzes management's responses to uncover potential accounting misrepresentations.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "3553fdaa-0ff6-4eb1-a5b5-fc5d971f746a", "evidence": "The slide explicitly analyzes communication for 'deceptive behavior' and 'manipulation' to uncover hidden financial concerns.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "54fba556-0188-496d-a599-192133f4143c", "evidence": "The slide explicitly analyzes rhetorical patterns to identify evasive behavior and potential deception regarding financial disclosures.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 12, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" }, { "matchId": "172ee1ea-08ba-436f-8602-7b1c5d0404c5", "evidence": "The analysis section explicitly deconstructs the speaker's defensive language and avoidance strategies.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" }, { "matchId": "3907153a-dff9-4928-8a0b-e55c7e28eeb3", "evidence": "The analysis explicitly identifies the management's deflection as a tactic to dismiss allegations.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Text-heavy forensic accounting memo in Times Roman with no charts, tables, or images beyond the Muddy Waters and Qverity logos — classic Muddy Waters format. Structured as: (1) opening thesis on cash burn & fabricated EBITDA, (2) deep dive on PT ALH sham-transaction chain involving nominee attorneys at Indonesian law firm Brigitta I. Rahayoe & Partners, PT Atlas (affiliate), and PT BSM/PT ARS/PT Dayana straw-party entities, (3) appended Qverity behavioral analysis of Noble's Q4 2014 earnings call claiming deception by CEO Alireza and CFO van der Zalm. Follows Iceberg Research's earlier Feb-Mar 2015 criticism; Muddy Waters explicitly states no coordination with Iceberg. No explicit price target or stake size. High narrative interest as a specimen of forensic short-report craft, but zero visual craft interest.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Positive FCF only 4 of 20 years (1994-2014, per Bloomberg)", "metric": "Free cash flow frequency" }, { "detail": "$7.7B net raised since 1997", "metric": "Capital raised from banks and markets" }, { "detail": "Nearly $4.0B; intra-quarter debt estimated ~$3B higher via repo-style transactions", "metric": "Total debt" }, { "detail": "70% from unrealized net gains on Level 3 assets", "metric": "Net income composition (2014)" }, { "detail": "$2.1B of 2014 gains on contracts maturing in >4 years = 30% of FV gains / 41% of shareholders' equity", "metric": "Long-dated fair-value gains" }, { "detail": "$300k paid; $46.4M negative-goodwill gain booked — reduced Q3 2011 loss by ~two-thirds", "metric": "PT ALH purchase price vs. booked gain" }, { "detail": "Negative book value ($5.5M), negative net tangible assets ($6.2M)", "metric": "PT ALH pre-acquisition financials" }, { "detail": "Implied value $31M-$38M after restructuring", "metric": "PT ALH off-take restructured value" }, { "detail": "$6.1M gain, reducing 2013 net loss by 36%", "metric": "PT Atlas FV gain on PT ALH acquisition" }, { "detail": "Purported $12M cash payment from PT Dayana (attorney-owned nominee) to PT Atlas", "metric": "Undisclosed cash flow to straw party" }, { "detail": "$28M claimed paid by PT Jatro for 55% of PT BSM — recipient unclear", "metric": "PT BSM disposal proceeds" }, { "detail": "SGD 0.91 / SGD 6.166B mkt cap / 46.5M avg volume / 4,276M float", "metric": "Stock price / Market cap / Volume" } ], "closingAsk": "Do not trust Noble management's claim that its 12,000 fair-value contracts are conservatively marked — one contract alone (PT ALH) moves the needle, and transparency would likely hurt the credit rating.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:16:09+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 107.38876, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "No explicit price target is given, but Muddy Waters implies credit-rating downgrades and collapsing confidence in reported EBITDA and net income would unwind the equity, which trades at SGD 0.91 with S$6.2B market cap entirely supported by opaque accounting.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Noble has been free-cash-flow positive only 4 of the last 20 years", "PT ALH sham chain manufactured a $46.4M negative-goodwill gain from a $300k purchase", "70% of 2014 net income came from unrealized Level 3 fair-value gains" ], "scqaSituation": "Noble Group is a Singapore-listed commodities trader (oil, gas, coal) with a S$6.2B market cap, $4B of debt, an ever-expanding balance sheet, and a portfolio of over 12,000 fair-valued contracts marked using Level 2 and Level 3 assumptions.", "thesisSummary": "Muddy Waters argues Noble Group exists solely to borrow and burn cash, having generated positive free cash flow only four times in twenty years while raising $7.7B from banks and markets and carrying nearly $4B of debt. The report contends Noble survives by fabricating accounting profits — 70% of 2014 net income came from unrealized Level 3 fair-value gains — and walks through the PT Alhasanie (PT ALH) transactions as Exhibit A: a $300,000 acquisition booked as a $46.4M negative-goodwill gain, later shuffled through straw-party nominee entities tied to Noble's Indonesian law firm, then on to affiliate PT Atlas for another round of gains. A Qverity behavioral analysis of Noble's Q4 2014 call reinforces the thesis, flagging CEO Yusuf Alireza's and CFO Robert van der Zalm's responses as deceptive.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell / short Noble Group shares", "Demand transparency on the 12,000+ fair-value contracts and Level 3 assets", "Investigate the PT ALH / PT Atlas / PT BSM related-party transactions" ], "scqaResolution": "Sell Noble shares; regulators and credit analysts should demand transparency on the 12,000+ fair-value contracts, scrutinize the PT ALH / PT Atlas / PT BSM related-party chain, and reassess the credibility of Noble management's disclosures.", "thesisOneLiner": "Muddy Waters is short Noble Group: a cash-burning commodities trader that manufactures EBITDA via sham affiliate transactions like the PT ALH $46M negative-goodwill scheme to keep credit flowing.", "precedentsCited": [ "Iceberg Research reports on Noble (Feb-Mar 2015)" ], "scqaComplication": "Noble has been free-cash-flow positive in only 4 of 20 years and depends on EBITDA and net income to keep credit flowing; 70% of 2014 net income was unrealized Level 3 gains, and the PT ALH sham chain shows management manufactures profits when pressured.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 2, 3, 9 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [], "valuationFrameworks": [ "not_shown" ], "visualCraftInterest": 1 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "function": "other", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/Pa2DS8jzSJR-q7tXJyiuXAAAeZ5cAO_G5j4ft1MCCvY/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy81NjJmODllNWUxMWMvcDAwMS5qcGc", "rawType": "disclaimer", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "disclaimer", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0801-727b-b98a-5ed095aeee78", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "other", "functionCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-15e1-75bc-99dc-07732380e2ce", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 7, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 147, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "logo_grid" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.313+00", "seconds": 2.656, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Muddy Waters, LLC contact information and Director of Research name.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.313+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c717fb4-7ca1-429d-b985-415ed1fc11d4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.7, "w": 0.704, "x": 0.148, "y": 0.225 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Full legal terms of service and liability disclaimer.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.313+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "efd89cce-134c-4ee6-9ffd-afb8b354734f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.196, "w": 0.298, "x": 0.148, "y": 0.118 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Muddy Waters Research logo", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.313+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b544e72f-1a9e-440b-b294-fbc1813a19ff", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "thumbSrc": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/yWaPZjURS_xzXLlrJmxFlAgyMXH7ZzDQA3M8I5dkHP0/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy81NjJmODllNWUxMWMvcDAwMS5qcGc", "imagePathAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/KEvsK9SikoJQkRwU0YazSlYtOMVFZMrgCd9Y6C5cU4c/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy81NjJmODllNWUxMWMvcDAwMS5wbmc", "thumbSrcAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/XfW9EV75EFlGiNd0jLoK2JBDiWq2b9C95YVUpTu4WdI/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy81NjJmODllNWUxMWMvcDAwMS5wbmc" }, { "page": 2, "type": "analysis", "title": "This is a research note from Muddy Waters Research.", "function": "diagnose_problem", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "diagnose_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Diagnose problem", "slug": "diagnose_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-176d-761f-b608-cf52262d2ab2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 50, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 905, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "This is a research note from Muddy Waters Research.", "elementsJson": [ "data_table", "headline_text", "paragraph", "bullet_list", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.683+00", "seconds": 2.933, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/2", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-2", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Noble seems to exist solely to borrow and burn cash.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-08cc0e667f96", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Is Noble effectively borrowing just to repay its existing debt? Is Noble in a vicious cycle whereby it will spend cash in value destroying ways in order to generate accounting gains (and keep its credit flowing)?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.683+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "adb5ba61-5968-4e84-a5de-4a5d8239e95f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "free cash flow", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-0fd00a5e33ca", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Muddy Waters is short Noble Group Limited (“Noble”). Noble seems to exist solely to borrow and burn cash. According to Bloomberg, Noble has been free cash flow positive only four out of 20 years – in other words, it literally generates positive free cash flow once every five years!", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.683+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "280cf500-9c61-40da-ab3e-4ec4cca8366c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 Per Bloomberg data, which encompasses 1994 – 2014. 2 Iceberg Research “Governance and Debt” March 21st 2015.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.683+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4b47eedc-a49e-4d1d-8663-2f4c4727c30c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Company: Noble Group Ltd (NOBL:SP) Industry: Oil, Gas & Coal Report Date: April 9, 2015 Stock Price: SGD 0.91 Market Cap: SGD 6.166 Billion Float: 4,276 Million Avg Volume: 46.5 Million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.683+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fdd276a8-2fff-4cbd-81d9-986c1f787978", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Noble's Accounting: Fueling the Cash-Burning Fires", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:17.683+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e1e6945-5611-45a0-a08a-0a73c2152239", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 2, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "477d7208-654b-4b18-9a4e-9ea14acaa9b1", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a critique of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting a $46.4 million gain and a need to shower.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. Used by AIDA, Monroes, Pixar Pitch, Overcoming the Monster." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 3, "type": "tension", "title": "This is a text-heavy research note page from a short-seller report (Muddy Waters).", "function": "name_villain", "rawType": "villain_critique", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "villain_critique", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Villain critique", "slug": "villain_critique", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-10bc-7136-bf20-09de59d17447", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "name_villain", "functionCanon": { "name": "Name villain", "slug": "name_villain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1746-70d6-bc58-5eeaf5865526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 62, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1132, "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "This is a text-heavy research note page from a short-seller report (Muddy Waters).", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "seconds": 5.996, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/3", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-3", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We are really short Noble’s management.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a0-f3209559b254", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We are really short Noble’s management. With a company as complex and opaque as Noble, there is no way for investors to definitively answer the above questions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "28cca29c-809e-4f88-bf78-8ed4be5562a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Third party behavioral analysis strongly supports our opinion of Noble management. Muddy Waters engaged Qverity to analyze management’s statements on the February 26th Q4 2014 results call for deception.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "61742ade-9539-44f5-b95b-8e623f1c282d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If “adversity introduces a man to himself”, in the public company context, it also introduces management to investors. Management’s actions taken on the eve of Noble reporting its first quarterly loss since being public, give a clear view of how they operate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9a52a9b7-6905-4722-8baa-cdfbc3eabe47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The reality of Noble’s financial statements has recently been criticized by a supposed former employee. Recently released details on 2014 results suggest concerning answers to the above questions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a9ed57ff-cd95-4ded-8bb0-d462ac7c6fe5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "If “adversity introduces a man to himself”, in the public company context, it also introduces management to investors. — Albert Einstein", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a0-f69bcbf5ca09", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Footnotes 3-9 detailing sources for financial claims and quotes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "da013961-9144-4ad0-8949-39a9c67a0e96", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "title", "text": "PT ALH – a Transaction Generating a $46.4 million Gain and a Need to Shower", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:20.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e8a7bd8b-1e9b-4813-aa27-dc95e6418ee5", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 2, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "477d7208-654b-4b18-9a4e-9ea14acaa9b1", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a critique of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting a $46.4 million gain and a need to shower.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. Used by AIDA, Monroes, Pixar Pitch, Overcoming the Monster." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 4, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a narrative structure to expose potential financial fraud, citing Iceberg Research and Q&A transcripts.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 74, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2372, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses a narrative structure to expose potential financial fraud, citing Iceberg Research and Q&A transcripts.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "seconds": 3.616, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/4", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-4", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our interpretation of these transactions is that there was a premeditated scheme to convey PT ALH to PT Atlas, generate unjustified and substance-less accounting gains for Noble along the way, and then ultimately purge the company of the evidence.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-43f2b3e7d925", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When Noble purchased PT Alhasanie (“PT ALH) in Q3 2011, Noble booked a gain from negative goodwill that reduced its quarterly loss by approximately two-thirds. The most remarkable aspect of the $46.4 million negative goodwill gain Noble booked on PT ALH was that Noble paid only $300,000 for the company.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "310a1365-2927-4374-813d-5db0da6f2720", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "On November 9, 2011, Noble reported its first quarterly loss as a public company. The following series of transactions – undertaken at this time of financial stress – seem not to be bona fide business transactions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f7ca5d7-f56d-4ddf-9485-cd53d1fe0baf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The February 25th 2015 Iceberg Research report highlighted PT ALH as an example of a potentially abusive transaction. Noble has failed to respond to this criticism. When we scratched the surface of transaction, we found numerous red flags and aggressive actions by Noble.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "af2763c5-64cb-4b04-b8a7-bcd141f3cbb8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When the dealing in PT ALH was finished in April 2013, both Noble and one of its affiliates, PT Atlas Resources Tbk (“PT Atlas”), had taken fair value gains from buying PT ALH. Disturbingly, Noble appears to have neither bought from, nor sold to, arms-length parties.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bed75fba-086b-4595-a17e-fcf856cf81ce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "quote", "text": ": Two questions...And the other thing I need clarification on is just the $46 million in relation to the excess over the cost of business combination. Can you give us some color in terms of how that arose? Thanks. ... :...Oh, yes, with regard to the second part of your question, the $46 million, that was relating to a number of", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99e4e7fb-c2aa-405d-8d06-2ae01ed0557a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": ": Two questions…And the other thing I need clarification on is just the $46 million in relation to the excess over the cost of business combination. Can you give us some color in terms of how that arose? Thanks. … :…Oh, yes, with regard to the second part of your question, the $46 million, that was relating to a number of — Mervin Song and Robert van der Zalm", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-47433e2b338c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.86 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "10 Based on reported 3Q 2011 loss of US$17.9m, Source: SGX release 9th November 2011 11 Iceberg Research “Fair values and Operating Cash Flows” February 25th 2015. p.12 12 Based on text and media search of all available public rebuttals of Iceberg from Noble.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b4c0cf57-d108-4786-8961-d7e9e550814a", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "78f135e2-200b-43a8-b1d3-efc03a276a0e", "evidence": "The slide systematically presents red flags and contradictions in financial reporting to allege fraud.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.834+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 4, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 2, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "477d7208-654b-4b18-9a4e-9ea14acaa9b1", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a critique of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting a $46.4 million gain and a need to shower.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. Used by AIDA, Monroes, Pixar Pitch, Overcoming the Monster." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 5, "type": "tension", "title": "This is a research note page focusing on forensic accounting analysis of Noble Group.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 41, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 1210, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "This is a research note page focusing on forensic accounting analysis of Noble Group.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.293+00", "seconds": 2.813, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/5", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-5", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Mr. van der Zalm appears to be doing backflips to avoid admitting that the $46.4 million gain arose solely from negative goodwill Noble booked on the PT ALH acquisition.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a0-d8ab84b0d56c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.71, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Mr. van der Zalm appears to be doing backflips to avoid admitting that the $46.4 million gain arose solely from negative goodwill Noble booked on the PT ALH acquisition. We wonder what questions management would have received had it announced this fact at the time, coupled with PT ALH having pre-acquisition negative book value of ($5.5 million), negative net tangible assets of ($6.2 million), and was purchased for only $300,000.14 Instead, management was able to defer disclosure of these uncomfortable facts until it buried them in note 16 on page 131 of the 2011 annual report, released over three months later.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.293+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3a64b235-9977-47f6-9277-aee842915790", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "reorganizations we were going through in Indonesia relating to some of our mining activities.13 (emphasis added)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.293+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b2105023-bbbe-483d-b211-3e76877c9250", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "reorganizations we were going through in Indonesia relating to some of our mining activities. — Bloomberg final transcript, Q3 2011 Earnings Call, November 9th 2011.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a0-de8aa369e5fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "13 Bloomberg final transcript, Q3 2011 Earnings Call, November 9th 2011.\n14 Noble “Non-material acquisitions and disposal” release, 26th March 2012", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.293+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "466ac520-353f-4ae7-af85-5614b509cbd1", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d49dbe03-7790-4a41-9585-77878595a553", "evidence": "The text explicitly identifies a discrepancy between reported gains and the underlying accounting treatment of negative goodwill.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.293+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 5, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 2, "name": "The Monster", "beatId": "477d7208-654b-4b18-9a4e-9ea14acaa9b1", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3ba3-70b3-85b6-6dc1928acd40", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a critique of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting a $46.4 million gain and a need to shower.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Hook", "slug": "hook", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-01a6-7328-bff2-b22eb40b3ea5", "version": 1, "description": "The opener — a deliberate move to earn attention before any argument. Used by AIDA, Monroes, Pixar Pitch, Overcoming the Monster." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 6, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a narrative structure to expose potential financial manipulation (triple dipping) by Noble.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 84, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 1815, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide uses a narrative structure to expose potential financial manipulation (triple dipping) by Noble.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "seconds": 3.877, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/6", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-6", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We speculate that the real purpose of the restructured off take agreement was to avoid Noble taking a massive impairment charge when it disposed of PT ALH.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-5a41bfb0abb2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Noble accomplished its triple dip when its affiliate, PT Atlas Resources Ptk (“PT Atlas”), ended up buying PT ALH just a few months after Noble sold it – in February 2013. PT Atlas agreed to pay the same price Noble received when it sold PT ALH: purportedly", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3cd35903-b4de-45ec-ac84-40ff3744ef6b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When Noble sold PT ALH for a purported $4.0 million, Noble took an additional fair value gain of $1.9 million. While the amount of the second “dip” is immaterial, by taking a fair value gain on the sale, Noble is telling us that it sold the mine for more than it was worth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3ffaee5b-17fc-44e1-a591-f61a80d3649e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Noble defends its MTM assumptions on off take agreements as “conservative”. But we are very curious why an arms-length seller would sell for $300,000 a mine that could execute an off take agreement worth approximately $31 million to $38 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "61a294cc-2610-480a-a0e7-244dbc19bea4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Noble justified receiving consideration significantly less than PT ALH's carrying value by disclosing that prior to sale, PT ALH restructured an off take agreement... Noble likely valued the restructured off take agreement at between $31 million to $38 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6226a7ee-9d6f-4480-acb8-0f4d26634a2f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We speculate that the real purpose of the restructured off take agreement was to avoid Noble taking a massive impairment charge... Another concern we have is that the off take restructuring might have juiced 2012 EBITDA.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "776ddb79-a394-471e-873f-6696c210df9f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Noble transfers the questionable fair value gain to an off take agreement. Noble reported selling PT ALH one year later... The consideration Noble reported receiving for selling PT ALH was only $4.0 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cc838714-9a90-43dd-bec2-4800c1812d55", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Noble defends its MTM assumptions on off take agreements as “conservative”. — Noble Group", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-5ecd506f0d07", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "15-20: Footnotes detailing financial reports and specific valuation calculations.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d58052a8-7bfc-4720-b7d8-c42155798088", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Noble Triple Dips on PT ALH", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b9b89f77-4d28-41bb-b859-d9263ef022ea", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "36a31754-844c-4b9e-a788-c855626f8959", "evidence": "The slide systematically deconstructs a series of transactions to allege financial manipulation.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 6, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "0ae25f44-6e73-4c25-ba85-72ade228048e", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 7, "type": "tension", "title": "The text details a complex web of related-party transactions and potential accounting manipulation.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 72, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1843, "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "The text details a complex web of related-party transactions and potential accounting manipulation.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "seconds": 2.907, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/7", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-7", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We are unsure what benefit Noble would have received by abetting what seems to be questionable accounting treatment by PT Atlas; but, little about this series of transactions seems above board.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-2abc7b114ce7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "$4.0 million. Surprisingly, PT Atlas booked a fair value gain on the acquisition of $6.1 million. Thus, when Noble sold PT ALH for $4.0 million, it effectively claims to have sold the company for about twice what it was worth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "29e5ec10-a275-45c5-ad52-b1fe07454efe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The $6.1 million fair value gain reduced PT Atlas's 2013 net loss by 36%. The relationship between PT Atlas and Noble appears complex – Noble owns 10% of PT Atlas; Noble's President, Will Randall, is on PT Atlas's board of commissioners.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "390c524b-5832-4351-a93f-2aa060212663", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In order for PT Atlas to book the negative goodwill on PT ALH, the seller needed to pay compensation PT Atlas of an additional $12.0 million cash.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7f68031d-52db-4dd7-a556-6c3c2b166bc3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The unfortunate seller, who purportedly ended up parting with PT ALH and a net $12.0 million, was a company called PT Dayana Lestari. PT Dayana was 90.9% owned by Ms. Hetty Tumondo and 9.1% by Mr. Adiwidya Imam Rahayu.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f564972c-dfa0-48bc-828d-ef8bcf753380", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Based on Shares Sale and Purchase Agreement, the previous owner ensures that the aggregate value of coal in stockpile and cash is US$ 5,600 and no liability in ALH financial statements as of April 30, 2013.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "615ccf33-ec1b-493e-979f-b24fa9e0cafb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Based on Shares Sale and Purchase Agreement, the previous owner ensures that the aggregate value of coal in stockpile and cash is US$ 5,600 and no liability in ALH financial statements as of April 30, 2013. Because of variance between ALH financial position and such agreement, the previous owner has to give US$ 12,007 to OPE. — PT Atlas 2013 Annual Report", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-2fc94d549d2e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "source-note", "text": "21 Noble November 23rd “Notification on subsidiary” SGX announcement. 22 Assumes PT Atlas’s negative goodwill was not taxed. 23 Noble 2014 AR, p.113 24 PT Atlas 2013 AR, p.9 25 Noble 2014 AR, p.148 26 Dollar amounts are in thousands. 27 PT Atlas 2013 AR, p.46.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8f3494e6-e511-46f1-97ff-377a6d3eed4a", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "a42a186f-ba50-4e65-a42b-3cc1005422e2", "evidence": "The text explicitly investigates and exposes questionable accounting and potential related-party conflicts.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:18.492+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 7, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "0ae25f44-6e73-4c25-ba85-72ade228048e", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 8, "type": "tension", "title": "The text functions as a forensic investigation of corporate transactions, highlighting potential fraud or shell company activity.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 90, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 2982, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The text functions as a forensic investigation of corporate transactions, highlighting potential fraud or shell company activity.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "seconds": 9.939, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/8", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-8", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "These purported consideration amounts seem to be little more than accounting entries to a) justify these transactions, and b) produce more substance-less accounting profit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-861a526683cf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When Noble bought PT ALH, it did so by acquiring PT BSM. PT BSM owned PT ALH. When Noble transferred PT ALH to Ms. Rahayoe / Tumondo's company, PT Dayana, it transferred PT ALH directly – i.e., without also transferring PT BSM. Thus, PT BSM was left to smolder on Noble's balance sheet a little while longer.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "18e15853-b0f4-4241-8055-db13e4a0b21f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "On January 24, 2014, the Indonesian government approved the AOA amendment transferring 100% of PT BSM to a company called PT Andhika Raya Semesta (\"PT ARS\"). (The AOA amendment had been notarized in December 2013.) PT ARS was formed on May 27, 2011. This is the exact same date that PT Dayana was formed (PT Dayana is the straw party that \"bought\" PT ALH from Noble and \"sold\" it to PT Atlas).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ab9eac9-baff-4b17-bb10-7ab0c2c52ba5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We highly doubt that Ms. Rahayoe, her firm, or Ms. Tumondo ever paid Noble $4.0 million, and we completely dismiss the possibility that any of them additionally paid PT Atlas $8.0 million. These purported consideration amounts seem to be little more than accounting entries to a) justify these transactions, and b) produce more substance-less accounting profit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9c79b182-e2ee-42b1-be52-033a9c3d347e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Moreover, Ms. Rahayoe was one of two directors of PT BSM from 2008 until Noble bought it and PT ALH. (PT ALH had been a subsidiary of PT BSM since 2008.) Given the pervasive role Ms. Rahayoe and her firm played in these various transactions, the initial PT ALH purchase is suspicious. It is definitely difficult to regard it as arms-length.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ab4d411e-3bf6-40cf-9aa8-b79a7c99712a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Noble announced that PT BSM issued 15,125,779 new shares, which constituted 55% of equity, to PT Jatro Indonesia on January 20, 2014. Noble claims that PT Jatro paid $28 million for this stake. There are some problems with this disclosure. First, the amendment to PT BSM's articles of association effecting the issuance to PT Jatro was not even notarized until April 3, 2014. However, something different happened in January though – it's a bit of a head scratcher.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ebc3e61d-d051-4de3-a53d-ef68360ed8a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.24 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Regardless, if we are to take both Noble and PT Atlas's disclosures at face value, then Ms. Tumondo and / or Ms. Rahayoe in September 2012 paid Noble consideration for PT ALH of $4.0 million. Then, Ms. Tumondo and / or Ms. Rahayoe received $4.0 million in 2013, but had to return that money along with an additional $8.0 million the same year. That would mean that the attorneys Ms. Tumondo and / or Ms. Rahayoe lost $12.0 million transacting with Noble and PT Atlas.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f9de6e77-d5b8-40de-a68b-f4003a41ae1d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "periods in which Noble owned the companies. This fact implies a business relationship between Noble and Ms. Rahayoe's law firm.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fc221f56-a5de-4392-924f-1512f756c8b6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "28 Indonesian law requires at least two shareholders, so it is therefore common to have a nominee shareholder who owns one share.\n29 Noble January 20th 2014 “Notification on Subsidiary” SGX announcement.\n30 As evidenced by notarization of the corporate records. Its formation was approved on August 10, 2011.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b689c277-6de4-4411-924d-a8c46e080dfc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Tying Up Loose Ends – Disposing of PT BSM", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:25.584+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "179379df-2792-4117-8c88-1c5eeee11a5f", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "0ae25f44-6e73-4c25-ba85-72ade228048e", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 9, "type": "tension", "title": "This is a text-heavy research note page detailing allegations of sham transactions and lack of transparency.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 77, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2977, "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "This is a text-heavy research note page detailing allegations of sham transactions and lack of transparency.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "seconds": 9.005, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/9", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-9", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "PT ALH seems to be a premeditated chain of sham transactions that not only unjustifiably pumped up net income by $46.4 million (and possibly EBITDA the next year), but requires investors to believe that in order to facilitate the transactions, Noble’s attorneys went out of pocket $12 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-f001cb048285", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We cannot understand the justification for a VIE-type of structure in this instance. Noble seems to have had no legal problem owning 100% of PT BSM previously. We suspect that imposing this layer that Noble does not actually own somehow serves to further the chain of likely sham transactions. This is particularly true, given that Noble claims $28 million changed hands. To whom did the $28 million go, if to anybody at all?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "128af25f-229d-4f15-bf33-aa9042222093", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While PT Jatro did eventually receive 55% of PT BSM, the remaining 45% is still owned by PT ARS. However, the shareholders of PT ARS have not changed – they are still Ms. Tumondo and Ms. Rayahoe's son. At the time of Noble's January 20, 2014 announcement, Noble referred to PT BSM as its “ultimately beneficially wholly-owned and controlled subsidiary”, which implies that Noble could have had a “variable interest entity”-type structure in place with PT ARS. (“VIE” structures seek to transfer economic benefit and control to parties other than the actual equity owners.)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f6373e9-72c7-476f-b6ed-a0cc6707dce2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Noble responded to criticism of its fair value practices and calls for transparency into them by stating it has over 12,000 agreements, which it marks to market using conservative assumptions. The implication of this statement is that the average net fair value gain per contract in its portfolio is small, and Noble's accounting is thus reasonable. However, PT ALH shows us that one contract can significantly move the needle. Management has therefore failed to adequately respond to the criticism, which we strongly suspect is because transparency could negatively impact Noble's credit rating.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5651487e-1dd6-43d9-9eea-670f3b82eba7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Moreover, Hetty Tumondo owns 50 shares of PT ARS (90.1%), and Ms. Rayahoe's son owns 9.09%. This shareholding structure is identical in every respect to that of PT Dayana. Because PT Dayana seems to have been conceived for purposes of being a straw party, it is reasonable to conclude that PT ARS and the disposal of PT BSM were part of the same plan.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9c9b6410-f5be-4e26-8a17-c6ed34bce50b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PT ALH shows that Noble management manipulates financials and investors when the pressure is on. The problem for investors is that given how prodigiously Noble chews up cash, the pressure is always on. PT ALH seems to be a premeditated chain of sham transactions that not only unjustifiably pumped up net income by $46.4 million (and possibly EBITDA the next year), but requires investors to believe that in order to facilitate the transactions, Noble's attorneys went out of pocket $12 million. And of course there is the question of whether Noble really owns a share of PT BSM, and did anybody receive the $28 million purportedly paid for the majority share?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dc7c69ae-5a69-4b09-a74c-fa3979d7b5a3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "31 Until October 2012, Ms. Tumondo's shares were owned by Ms. Rayahoe.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6117b1a6-6dbe-4bd9-b02a-59336eb4ee5f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Conclusion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4cd86a28-a2cb-499e-ba95-4a80fa164085", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "8646b87e-3e75-4a6c-a0a7-04231bdfe7a9", "evidence": "The text explicitly argues that the company is using sham transactions and VIE structures to manipulate financials.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:24.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 9, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "0ae25f44-6e73-4c25-ba85-72ade228048e", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 3, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "661626c9-23dd-44b7-9cae-b354b6185fc5", "evidence": "The document presents a series of contradictions and discrepancies in Noble Group's accounting practices.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:20:36.871146+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 10, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a Q&A transcript to challenge management's claims about asset impairments.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 61, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 2438, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a Q&A transcript to challenge management's claims about asset impairments.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "seconds": 3.324, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/10", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-10", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The suggestion that we should use a spot price that has an 8% free float and trades A$10,000 a day as a fair representation of the market value is, at best, naive.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a2-5dd7ee46101b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Summary: On the basis of select commentary by Noble Group management and the associated deceptive behavior identified below, we have concluded it is highly likely that one or more of the allegations made in the Iceberg report are true.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2019602c-b173-41a7-a5af-93aaf889678e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Thank you, Conrad, for your question. So Territory is, just to clarify, is an iron ore mine in Australia... we don't see any other issues on any of the other exposures that we have.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "82789251-c701-4346-9519-97d573dbe14f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis: The CEO's qualified statements, coupled with the attack on the non-attributed suggestion, indicate that Noble has some degree of uncertainty about the level of risk associated with further deteriorating market conditions.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d4da06ee-b9a8-45a7-8c1b-96bffb26237d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Hi, there. It's Conrad calling from Macquarie. Just a couple of quick questions, please. The issue that you had with Territory Resources... are there any other risks like that still sitting there on the balance sheet?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dd508981-6c3d-4b14-b496-5016b425a523", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": ": Hi, there. It's Conrad calling from Macquarie. Just a couple of quick questions, please. The issue that you had with Territory Resources, which impacted the operating income from supply chains in Metals, are there any other risks like that still sitting there on the balance sheet, if you like, whether in Metals or in Energy? I mean you mentioned in Yancoal that you didn't see much incremental further write-down risk, but are there any more issues like Territory in there? And then, could you just split the fourth quarter loss from associates into how much came from Agri and how much came from Yancoal? Thank you. : Thank you, Conrad, for your question. So Territory is, just to clarify, is an iron ore mine in Australia. We put it on care and maintenance because of the price falls. As you know, we're an asset light firm, but that doesn't mean we don't have any assets on our balance sheet. We've gone through as part of our year-end process and reviewed in great detail the operating assets that we have on our balance sheet and have [ph] felt (35:45) we have impaired them as we did in previous quarters. So looking at what we have, looking at the amount of exposures that we have in associates, at this point, we don't see any other issues on any of the other exposures that we have.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a2-63077b009730", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.25, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Analysis of Noble Group Q4 2014 Call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e3b33b53-7883-4ae5-b695-9d3fa74ba003", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "b937dab2-dba3-4997-838a-3f78c401403e", "evidence": "The slide explicitly identifies 'deceptive behavior' and analyzes management's responses to uncover potential accounting misrepresentations.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.341+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 10, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "0ae25f44-6e73-4c25-ba85-72ade228048e", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 11, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'forensic' analysis style to deconstruct corporate communication, identifying manipulation and avoidance tactics.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 72, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2061, "nDataPoints": 2, "notes": "The slide uses a 'forensic' analysis style to deconstruct corporate communication, identifying manipulation and avoidance tactics.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "seconds": 3.757, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/11", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-11", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Collectively, his deceptive behavior is strongly indicative of a level of concern that is higher than what has been disclosed regarding additional problems with Yancoal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-9b43844fbfa2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Losses on associates, in the year, NAL, the Noble Agri, the quarterly impact - the impact on the associate line was just a quarterly impact about $94-ish million and the Yancoal impact was roughly $60 million loss, [ph] it was all (36:47).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d47930e-6858-4ecd-9b4b-0138550248de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Hi, good evening. I wanted to ask about the write-down on Yancoal... And was any of the write-down - was it in any way sort of connected with recent questions raised about the Yancoal valuation by Iceberg? Thank you.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "304b16d0-3047-47de-b704-a8eebde3e4bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis: Mr. Van der Zalm initially provides information that was not requested. After further prompting from Mr. Alireza, he provides only approximate figures regarding the losses. His behavior reflects concern about providing any significant detail regarding the question that was posed.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "362de3d1-18de-4972-9823-6e235299bd4e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis: Mr. Alireza begins his response with overly polite behavior... Collectively, his deceptive behavior is strongly indicative of a level of concern that is higher than what has been disclosed regarding additional problems with Yancoal.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6aa6b411-39a8-4742-8511-5e170cdf054f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Sure. So just to clarify, we review all of our associates/other assets investments on our balance sheet, on a quarterly basis... In terms of when the decision was made to write-down Yancoal, we've been going through the process of reviewing our balance sheet and all of our assets with E&Y for the last month, month-and-a-half since the year-end. We presented those results to the Audit Committee over the last", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8d8238c8-3a00-4435-ad94-d0ba47c0a842", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In terms of the breakdown between Yancoal and Noble Agri, Robert, do you have those details? : Noble Agri was on the balance sheet at roughly $1.4-ish billion. : I think the question is in terms of the losses on associates.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b27de45f-781d-4175-978d-506d1aaa5742", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "In terms of your last question, there is nothing in terms of our results that was impacted in any way by any anonymous report that was released. — Yusuf Alireza", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-9d6a1ceac626", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "3553fdaa-0ff6-4eb1-a5b5-fc5d971f746a", "evidence": "The slide explicitly analyzes communication for 'deceptive behavior' and 'manipulation' to uncover hidden financial concerns.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.779+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 11, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "44de4707-7114-4d90-9234-8e75bcf94a83", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a conclusion and analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting areas of concern.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 12, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide contains transcript excerpts followed by critical analysis of the speakers' rhetorical strategies.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 43, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1330, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide contains transcript excerpts followed by critical analysis of the speakers' rhetorical strategies.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "seconds": 3.243, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/12", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-12", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "His eagerness to move away from this issue reflects his desire to avoid any further inquiry into the issue.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-71a7ce818f4a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Okay, great. So you're saying that EY actually did look in detail at this report, reviewed it with the board, reviewed it internally there, and went ahead with their statement. : EY just followed their internal protocols and felt comfortable signing off on the accounts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "27d45028-32b2-400d-a166-713ec53b5647", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.44, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "few days and finalized them with the board today. In terms of the assumptions that have gone into it, there's obviously a number of assumptions that impact that cash flow model...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8ec534a1-e5a8-4119-afbc-8a743e78c445", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.485 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis: The first area of concern is Mr. Alireza’s non-specific denial as to whether the write-down was in any way connected with the Iceberg report...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e041edc1-078f-40dc-8720-f97a3a0052f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis: This is clearly an overly specific response, which again is a persuasion behavior that’s intended to give the appearance of cooperation and responsiveness by providing information, however the information provided is inconsequential detail...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e97da07b-ecd3-4919-a178-941c1ac2423c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The coal price assumptions are the same assumptions that we use in all of our businesses. But what I can say is they are below the consensus curves. And the adjustment in valuation, not only was our external auditor, E&Y, comfortable with, but our Audit Committee and our board are very comfortable with. — Mr. Alireza", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-77ed56aba7cf", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "54fba556-0188-496d-a599-192133f4143c", "evidence": "The slide explicitly analyzes rhetorical patterns to identify evasive behavior and potential deception regarding financial disclosures.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.276+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 12, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 11, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "44de4707-7114-4d90-9234-8e75bcf94a83", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a conclusion and analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting areas of concern.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 13, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a 'quote-analysis' structure to deconstruct the speaker's avoidance and aggression tactics.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 40, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1162, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a 'quote-analysis' structure to deconstruct the speaker's avoidance and aggression tactics.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "seconds": 3.191, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/13", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-13", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "This approach is often taken in situations where individuals, entities, or both are attempting to conceal information, particularly acts of wrongdoing.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-ada07740b07c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.125 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Well, we have sent out - listen, I don't - and I have been given advice not to spend a lot of time talking about this thing. But I think I - I guess I'm not good at sometimes following that advice...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4a7229bf-c170-4d9b-89d6-03f16ead7bf0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis: Mr. Alireza begins his response with a false start, and then states, \"I have been given advice not to spend a lot of time talking about this thing.\" This comment reflects his adoption of what is known as an \"access control\" or \"avoidance\" strategy.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "952bb04a-e2ec-47e8-b9e3-59c6dda152b3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": ": Hi. I think you've sort of answered a lot of the questions we had. But just going back just to Iceberg very quickly, I mean what makes - I mean can you give us a bit more detail on what makes you think this report was written by an ex-employee?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f64d670d-bd1e-47ca-af37-e50a6e0ba686", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": ": Well, we have sent out - listen, I don't - and I have been given advice not to spend a lot of time talking about this thing. But I think I - I guess I'm not good at sometimes following that advice. — Yusuf Alireza", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-b2f7442e0926", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "title", "text": "response to some of the points raised?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b5975bde-5c4f-43f9-964c-938bb13ed9a2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "172ee1ea-08ba-436f-8602-7b1c5d0404c5", "evidence": "The analysis section explicitly deconstructs the speaker's defensive language and avoidance strategies.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:19.316+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 11, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "44de4707-7114-4d90-9234-8e75bcf94a83", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a conclusion and analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting areas of concern.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 14, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide critiques the management's deflection strategy regarding legal action against a suspected whistleblower.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 51, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 2093, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide critiques the management's deflection strategy regarding legal action against a suspected whistleblower.", "elementsJson": [ "quote_block", "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "seconds": 6.457, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8/14", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8#slide-14", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-5115bded0db8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.71, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Analysis: Citing regulatory reasons, Mr. Alireza refuses to explain why Noble believes that an ex-employee wrote the Iceberg report. Rather than provide a substantive rationale for not taking legal action against the suspected author of the report, Mr. Alireza simply provides a series of convincing statements that are designed to convince investors that the allegations levied in the Iceberg report are attributable to a disgruntled ex-employee, and therefore have no merit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "309aab79-939c-420b-83e9-6f85781e7f87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Mr. Alireza simply provides a series of convincing statements that are designed to convince investors that the allegations levied in the Iceberg report are attributable to a disgruntled ex-employee, and therefore have no merit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-d8f790a3444d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.71, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.43 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "The information contained in this report is solely provided for the confidential use of the requesting client. No other use or dissemination of the information is permitted without the express written authorization of QVerity, Inc.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7b2951e6-b736-43af-8cb8-0becbf0b55ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "regulatory perspective, in terms of why we believe we know who it is. But we have a high degree of confidence that we know who it is and we've provided that information to the regulators.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "66d21951-42af-49ac-9e2d-13a88e6dbe85", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.59, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Listen, why are we not going to take action against this employee that we fired is because that's not we want to be focused on from the management team, and that's not what we want to do with shareholder equity and shareholder capital. Our focus is to deliver results. At the end of the day, our stakeholders will judge us not by an anonymous blogger, right, but by our results. If he's broken any laws, then I think it's the regulators' responsibility to pursue that. It's just-", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "988a4bc7-8d6d-453d-a3d1-e091f1b1ad26", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Listen, why are we not going to take action against this employee that we fired is because that's not we want to be focused on from the management team, and that's not what we want to do with shareholder equity and shareholder capital. Our focus is to deliver results. At the end of the day, our stakeholders will judge us not by an anonymous blogger, right, but by our results. If he's broken any laws, then I think it's the regulators' responsibility to pursue that. It's just- — Mr. Alireza", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:07:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0930-77dc-94a1-dda97cbfa7d0", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "3907153a-dff9-4928-8a0b-e55c7e28eeb3", "evidence": "The analysis explicitly identifies the management's deflection as a tactic to dismiss allegations.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:51:22.654+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "frameworkName": "fraud-exposure" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 14, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 11, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "44de4707-7114-4d90-9234-8e75bcf94a83", "matchId": "13b54925-f959-442f-8fcc-263eb558ced9", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document presents a conclusion and analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting areas of concern.", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [ { "from": 2, "to": 5, "label": "The Monster", "description": "The document presents a critique of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting a $46.4 million gain and a need to shower." }, { "from": 6, "to": 10, "label": "The Struggle", "description": "The document presents an analysis of Noble Group's transactions and accounting practices, highlighting contradictions and discrepancies." }, { "from": 11, "to": 14, "label": "The Victory", "description": "The document presents a conclusion and analysis of Noble Group's accounting practices, highlighting areas of concern." } ], "loops": [ { "from": 3, "to": 9, "label": "The Reveal", "description": "To reveal the truth about Noble Group's accounting practices" } ] }