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Author is the firm; Carson Block runs MW but is not individually signed.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Declined from 2.5% (first six months of Olam ownership) to 0.9% in FY2011", "metric": "CFM PAT margin" }, { "detail": "79 revisions totaling over S$2.7 billion in absolute value identified in Olam's historical Statements of Cash Flows", "metric": "Unexplained cash-flow revisions" }, { "detail": "S$29.2 million gap between Q4 2010 statement (S$89.0m) and FY2010 Annual Report (S$118.2m)", "metric": "Negative goodwill discrepancy" }, { "detail": "Grew 37.3% FY2009–FY2011 but driven almost entirely by wheat price inflation and SGD/NGN FX appreciation, not demand", "metric": "CFM revenue growth" }, { "detail": "Rose 58.2% from US$206.25/MT (Dec 2009) to US$326.43/MT (Jun 2011)", "metric": "US Hard Red Winter Wheat price" }, { "detail": "Increased from 5% to 20% effective July 20, 2012, with cassava substitution scaling from 10% to 40% by 2015", "metric": "Nigerian wheat import duty" }, { "detail": "Bloomberg shows 110m shares; FY2012 AR shows only 10m direct, while Citibank Nominee Services holds ~500m", "metric": "Verghese disclosed shareholding discrepancy" } ], "closingAsk": "Accept Muddy Waters' bona fide offer to have S&P rate one series of Olam's straight debt by December 5, 2012 as a step toward genuine transparency.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 19:05:23+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 90.69111, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "An S&P rating would expose mispriced credit risk; continued refusal would confirm the opacity thesis and reinforce conviction in the short, with potential value mortally wounded once true risk is recognized.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Olam answered only 1 of 79 unexplained S$2.7bn cash-flow revisions", "Olam's 'best' acquisition (CFM) earned just a 0.9% PAT margin in FY2011", "Management hides behind Ernst & Young — same auditor as Sino-Forest" ], "scqaSituation": "Olam International, a Singapore-listed agricultural commodity supply-chain operator, responded to Muddy Waters' initial short report with a defensive 45-page rebuttal, a defamation lawsuit, and accusations that Muddy Waters is manipulating the share price.", "thesisSummary": "This follow-up note dismantles Olam's 45-page response to Muddy Waters' November 27 short report, arguing the rebuttal evades nearly every substantive point. Muddy Waters publicly offers to pay Standard & Poor's to rate one of Olam's debt issues, daring management to accept transparency by December 5. The note doubles down on three pillars: the Crown Flour Mill acquisition — touted by Olam as a 'best' deal — generated only a 0.9% PAT margin in FY2011, validating the value-destruction thesis; Olam's 45-page response addressed only one of 79 unexplained S$2.7 billion cash-flow revisions; and management hides behind Ernst & Young, the same firm that audited Sino-Forest. Muddy Waters also demands CEO Sunny Verghese retract defamatory 'manipulator' accusations and disclose whether management has pledged shares against margin loans.", "primaryDemands": [ "Accept Muddy Waters' offer to pay S&P to rate Olam's public debt", "Substantively address the 79 unexplained S$2.7bn cash-flow revisions", "Retract defamatory 'manipulator' accusations made by CEO Sunny Verghese", "Disclose whether senior management has pledged shares as collateral" ], "scqaResolution": "Muddy Waters publicly offers to pay S&P to rate one series of Olam's straight debt by December 5, demands substantive answers on the accounting revisions, and calls for retraction of the defamatory statements.", "thesisOneLiner": "Olam's 45-page rebuttal ducks Muddy Waters' real points; we'll pay S&P to rate Olam's debt and prove the market underprices its accounting and acquisition risk.", "precedentsCited": [ "Sino-Forest collapse (also audited by E&Y)", "Enron / Arthur Andersen unqualified audit 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The response is essentially a waste of toner, as much of it consists of canned presentation slides and consultant drivel. Where Olam’s response attempts to be substantive, it contains numerous instances of irrelevant information, factual inaccuracies, misleading statements, and mischaracterizations of our report. However, the response does demonstrate Olam’s continuing deluded denial of its fiscal problems. 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In our view, it is Olam's duty to have its unsecured debt rated because it has reacted our criticisms by increasing its CapEx spending forecast, and thereby increased its risk profile.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:42.287+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8962dce5-967e-4150-aadf-29d4fbeeb897", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.405 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Given that Olam has thus far refused to have it or its debt rated, Muddy Waters finds quixotic its citation of Standard & Poor's debt research in support of its purported liquidity. 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Should it continue to refuse a rating, investors should wonder whether the Company is worried that a rating would mortally wound it by making clear that the market has been underpricing its risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:42.287+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "978a2d23-ed9a-49b8-a152-a46b68620bb6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Shareholders might have reason to worry that senior management could be facing margin calls... 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This is greatly misleading. CFM’s revenue increase was driven almost exclusively by rising wheat and flour prices, and the appreciation of the SGD. The sale price of flour in Nigeria increased approximately 30% between 2009 and 2011 (from NGN 4,000 to NGN 5,200 per 50 kg bag). These increases were driven by increases in the cost of inputs (i.e., wheat), and were not driven by demand. From December 2009 to June 2011, prices for US Hard Red Winter Wheat increased 58.2% from US$206.25 / MT to US$326.43. In addition, the SGD appreciated against the NGN 17.7% during this time. 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The flour milling industry in Nigeria is undergoing a major change – one that will diminish any competitive advantages that Olam’s global procurement and logistics systems might be able to provide.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:43.504+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "21cc70c3-4f01-4ef6-b4fe-f59d4fd6e4ef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Olam stated that Crown Flour Mills is “one of the best performing acquisitions of Olam to date…” in response to our showing that CFM has been burning operating and free cash, and generated only a FY2011 PAT margin of only 0.9%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:43.504+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d9a32700-22bc-4631-b02f-5c40ed1aeef7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "PAT margin: 0.9%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:03:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0391-77f4-a9ea-72b2fec4e0e0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Olam has validated our off-the-rails acquisition and CapEx thesis in its response regarding the Crown Flour Mill acquisition.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:43.504+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "271c9bb8-b89a-44b1-ab36-c9d4217493b6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Government of Nigeria (GON) is implementing an aggressive import substitution policy by forcing millers to use locally grown Casava. Other wheat flour substitutes are also being explored. This will commence in 2012 with a 10% cassava flour inclusion rate, and is expected to increase steadily to 40% by 2015. The government also plans to introduce fiscal incentives to stimulate increased domestic production and processing of cassava. Effective July 20, 2012 the import duty on wheat increased from 5% to 20%. The result is that production capacity at the mills is dropping, and according to a local Nigerian wheat expert, business projections of increasing growth and capacity expansions of the flour milling industry are “slowly being killed by [Government of Nigeria].”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:43.504+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3e23a5ae-0410-4030-9351-8bb50a50a792", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "slowly being killed by [Government of Nigeria]. — local Nigerian wheat expert", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:03:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0391-77f4-a9ea-6e451387f1e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.89 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Footnotes 1-6 detailing Olam response pages and USDA data sources.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Olam says the acquired assets “get the job done”. This completely incorrect (and almost improper) rationale would hold that an operable 1992 Mercedes should be worth just as much as – if not more than – a 2012 Honda.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:44.615+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0eda3d87-7347-43f3-8d7a-a11b98cf1453", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.648, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.765 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "More to the point, we are unsure that E&Y member firms in some of the least developed countries in the world practice at standards comparable to those of E&Y Singapore. E&Y Lagos audits Olam’s Nigerian subsidiaries.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:44.615+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e5ad313-efcc-4534-a173-fe8c427b3e71", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.648, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.685 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This elite group of accounting firms used to be the “Big Five”. The group lost a member after Enron Corp. collapsed. 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Given Olam's numerous acquisitions of poorly performing assets, investors should be gravely concerned about the returns on their capital.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:44.615+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aa21c13e-ab40-4ffe-a516-cbc355476111", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.648, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.305 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our analysis of the CFM acquisition is based on extensive field research in Lagos, Nigeria, and through obtaining and analyzing CFM’s Nigerian Corporate Affairs Commission audited financial statements.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:44.615+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "af3f84b3-13a4-4abf-8d80-866acebb0f96", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.648, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.525 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Olam is using Ernst & Young as a crutch, rather than attempting to provide substantive answers to issues we and other analysts have raised. Auditors repeatedly fail to ensure that financial statements are free of misleading figures or fraud.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:44.615+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c8a26365-08b0-4f64-94a1-dae7ddd7533a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.648, "x": 0.145, "y": 0.605 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The landscape – even in very recent years – is littered with corporate collapses and frauds that were audited by “Big Four” accounting firms. 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Chairman Kenneth Lay during his 2006 criminal trial", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:44.615+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f890c105-50e0-4dc9-a7b9-0d86f76fd78b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"[The accounts] had been reviewed and scrubbed quarterly since they were put in place by Arthur Andersen. We thought all that had become history, and it was now news.\" — Former Enron Corp. 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The difference between the two is clearly explained on page 13 of Q4 FY2010 SGXNET, ‘During the period, the Company has completed the Purchase Price Allocation (“PPA”) exercise for the recently acquired tomato paste manufacturing facility (OTP) in California and the Almond Orchards in Australia. This exercise resulted in an aggregate exceptional gain of S$87.6 million in the form of negative goodwill (net of transactional and related expenses of S$29.1 million and a one off impairment for charges for certain ginning assets in the USA amounting to S$1.4 million)’. 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both statements. The Q4 2010 Statement of Cash Flows obviously should have included the transaction costs and impairment charges. That it did not is another example showing that Olam's accounting is incompetent at best.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:03:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0391-77f4-a9eb-595c892a44fc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Negative goodwill: S$89.0 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:03:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0391-77f4-a9eb-5dee7072351b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "However, in the Q4 2010 financials, Olam subtracted out only S$89.0 million:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:52:42.322+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7f302ee0-afaf-49e5-8ff9-de880aec27a4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PBT was the same in both statements. 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