{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-cb75574afb6f", "slug": "fed36a1771da", "title": "National Healthcare Corporation (NHC)", "subtitle": "Land and Buildings · 2025-06", "author": "Land and Buildings", "date": "2025-06-17 00:00:00", "pageCount": 2, "kind": "press-release", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "National Healthcare Corporation", "targetTicker": "NHC", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-cb75574afb6f", "slug": "fed36a1771da", "title": "National Healthcare Corporation (NHC)", "rawTitle": "LandB NHC Press Release 6 17 25", "authorId": "26_Land_and_Buildings", "authorName": null, "authorDisplay": "Land and Buildings", "kind": { "slug": "press-release", "label": "Press release" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2025-06-LandB-NHC-Press-Release-6-17-25.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": null, "presentationDate": "2025-06-17 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 18:39:19+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 2, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "National Healthcare Corporation", "targetTicker": "NHC", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/fed36a1771da", "activist_firm": "Land & Buildings Investment Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 120.47789025306702 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 2, "pagesIndexed": 2, "pagesWithImages": 2, "pagesWithMetadata": 2, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 17, "chartCount": 0, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 1, "documentToolMatches": 1, "frameworkMatches": 0, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 2, "loopMatches": 0, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "The Sparkline", "slug": "sparkline", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Keynotes, TED-style talks", "canonId": "019dd956-606e-720c-905a-42607ac0bf50", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "What Is -> What Could Be -> What Is -> What Could Be -> New Bliss", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Narrative & Transformation", "categorySlug": "narrative-transformation" }, "matchId": "fc6cf33f-8207-49e0-8130-f62d63b94b15", "evidence": "Simple, two-page structure with a clear message", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:57:07.858423+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 1, "arc": { "name": "The Sparkline", "slug": "sparkline", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Keynotes, TED-style talks", "canonId": "019dd956-606e-720c-905a-42607ac0bf50", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "What Is -> What Could Be -> What Is -> What Could Be -> New Bliss", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Narrative & Transformation", "categorySlug": "narrative-transformation" }, "from": 1, "name": "Setup", "beatId": "abd51319-74ac-472f-82f8-baaaf6fdf2ee", "matchId": "fc6cf33f-8207-49e0-8130-f62d63b94b15", "beatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. 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Other arcs embed evidence inline within development." }, "evidence": "Details on potential outcomes", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.6 } ], "loops": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "aa4de704-d163-4050-a642-82e93a037936", "evidence": "Andrew Adams and Robert Adams (NHC/NHI Adams brothers); also NHI legacy directors Robert Adams, James Jobe, Robert McCabe", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.936794+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. 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Jonathan Litt runs L&B but is not credited on this document.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "-19% under mark-to-market ('Bad' case)", "metric": "NHC EBITDA impact from lease reset" }, { "detail": "Up to $50M, or 38% of 2024 EBITDA ('Disastrous' case)", "metric": "NHC EBITDA at risk if NHI re-lets" }, { "detail": "+12% when rents marked to market", "metric": "NHI FFO/share accretion" }, { "detail": "+64% / $25.7M based on CareTrust comparable", "metric": "Rent uplift vs 2024" }, { "detail": "150% of current rent under lease terms if no deal by end-2026", "metric": "Holdover rent multiplier" }, { "detail": "$13,678 per bed annually (Oct 2024 TN/AL SNF deal)", "metric": "CareTrust comparable rent/bed" }, { "detail": "Robert Adams retained seat by scant 1%", "metric": "2025 NHI proxy vote margin" }, { "detail": ">75% stock decline on regulatory scrutiny", "metric": "PACS Group drawdown precedent" }, { "detail": "28 skilled nursing facilities, 5 assisted living, 3 independent living", "metric": "Leased portfolio composition" } ], "closingAsk": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 18:39:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 120.47789, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "NHC EBITDA falls 19% (rent reset) to 38% (lease loss); NHI FFO/share climbs ~12% and potentially more if re-let to a better operator.", "thesisTypes": [ "governance_board", "other" ], "top3Reasons": [ "1991 NHC-NHI master lease expires year-end 2026 at dramatically below-market rents", "Mark-to-market will cut NHC EBITDA 19%; third-party release would wipe out 38%", "Adams-brother cross-board grip cracked after Robert Adams won by 1% in 2025 proxy" ], "scqaSituation": "NHC leases 36 skilled nursing and senior housing facilities from NHI under a 1991 master lease; the cozy arrangement was orchestrated by the Adams brothers running both companies.", "thesisSummary": "National Healthcare Corporation (NHC) leases 36 facilities from National Health Investors (NHI) under an egregiously one-sided 1991 master lease expiring December 2026, orchestrated by the Adams brothers who simultaneously ran both companies and cross-sat on each other's boards. Following Land & Buildings' 2025 proxy contest that nearly unseated Robert Adams (1% margin), NHI has leverage to mark rents to market. L&B outlines three NHC outcomes — all negative: 'Bad' (renegotiation at 64% higher rents, cutting NHC EBITDA 19%, lifting NHI FFO/share 12%); 'Worse' (holdover at 150% current rent with risk of losing all properties); 'Disastrous' (NHI releases to a third party, costing NHC $50M / 38% of EBITDA). L&B has established a short position, arguing NHC's lack of analyst coverage and minimal disclosures leave shareholders blind to the earnings cliff.", "primaryDemands": [ "NHC must renegotiate its master lease with NHI at fair market rents well before December 2026 lease expiry", "NHC must avoid scorched-earth tactics that could trigger regulatory review of Certificate of Need licenses", "NHI board (Adams, Jobe, McCabe) must be held accountable at the 2026 NHI annual meeting if lease terms favor NHC" ], "scqaResolution": "L&B has established a short position in NHC, expecting NHI to renegotiate rents upward, force a holdover at 150% of current rent, or re-lease the portfolio to a best-in-class operator.", "thesisOneLiner": "NHC's below-market 1991 lease with NHI expires 2026; renegotiation will cut NHC EBITDA 19-38% — L&B is short NHC.", "precedentsCited": [ "CareTrust (CTRE) Oct 2024 acquisition/lease of 31 Tennessee/Alabama SNFs at $13,678/bed — 64% above current NHC rent/bed", "PACS Group (PACS) 75%+ stock decline after aggressive actions triggered regulatory scrutiny" ], "scqaComplication": "The lease expires December 2026 at dramatically below-market rents, and L&B's recent proxy contest stripped the Adams-era board of its invincibility — NHI now has leverage to mark rents to market.", "narrativeInterest": 3, "notableSlidePages": [ 1 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "National Health Investors (NHI)", "CareTrust REIT (CTRE)", "PACS Group (PACS)" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "precedent_transactions" ], "visualCraftInterest": 1 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide outlines a conflict of interest involving the Adams brothers and proposes three potential outcomes for NHC, starting with a 'bad' scenario.", "function": "frame_problem", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/tVEFlXbetEUqOdy74py8KbpySa_0kyUQepx20zYwisY/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9mZWQzNmExNzcxZGEvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "press-release", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "press-release", "slideTypeCanon": null, "function": "frame_problem", "functionCanon": { "name": "Frame problem", "slug": "frame_problem", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-13db-753e-ad70-e9b2d0dab398", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 91, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 3004, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide outlines a conflict of interest involving the Adams brothers and proposes three potential outcomes for NHC, starting with a 'bad' scenario.", "elementsJson": null, "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "seconds": 5.018, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-cb75574afb6f/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-cb75574afb6f", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-cb75574afb6f#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6dd-cb75574afb6f.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "list", "text": "1. Bad – NHC and NHI renegotiate the lease at fair market rents well before the December 2026 lease end date. We estimate the new rent, based on estimated lease coverage ratios and a recent comparable lease, to be 64% higher than 2024 full-year rent, or $25.7 million, reducing NHC EBITDA by 19%, and increasing NHI annual FFO/share by 12%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f8978785-ff20-4cbe-a237-35129cf530fe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "NHC may lose 19% to 38% of EBITDA with substantial downside and reputational risk if the company overplays its hand", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "524e8d68-3cdd-4de0-b05d-ac3c3e27c075", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This cozy relationship between NHC and NHI was orchestrated by brothers Andrew Adams and Robert Adams at the expense of NHI shareholders. The Adams brothers each ran one of the companies while sitting on each other's boards and populated the boards primarily with local Murfreesboro, TN loyalists. However, we believe the days of NHC taking advantage of NHI are numbered.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5cd36100-07b9-44ed-8641-31f56d79295f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Believes NHC faces three potential outcomes with the NHI lease renewal – all of which could lead to a significant decline in NHC earnings and likely material share price weakness", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8c88dec6-7bc2-44da-a3f3-dd58d9273c4b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.39 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "National Healthcare Corporation’s (NYSE: NHC) egregiously one-sided lease with National Health Investors (NYSE: NHI) expires year-end 2026. This master lease was originally signed in 1991 and includes 28 skilled nursing facilities, five assisted living centers, and three independent living centers. NHC has enjoyed dramatically below market rents during this time while NHC profits ballooned. NHI conversely received little rent growth over the decades despite the improving economics of their properties.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9188f83a-02d7-4c47-beb0-461ad61f12ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Stamford, CT (June 17, 2025) – Today, Land & Buildings Investment Management, LLC (together with its affiliates, “Land & Buildings”) issued the following statement:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b5fd681a-4a12-46e1-9571-b57ed789ed74", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Believes recent developments put NHI in catbird seat in renegotiation and company could see a 12% increase in annual FFO/share when rents are marked to market with potentially more upside if released to a best-in-class operator", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c1d9d717-9340-4be3-b70e-16f4825d95d0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Shareholders sent a clear message to the remaining NHI conflicted board members during this year's proxy contest with Land & Buildings that they are not invincible, with Robert Adams having retained his seat by a scant 1%. With Robert Adams, James Jobe and Robert McCabe up for election at the 2026 NHI annual meeting, shareholders will have the opportunity to vote against these legacy directors if the company drags its feet or attempts to sign a lease which is not in the best interest of NHI shareholders.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f7c10baf-c439-4eff-9b0b-f6d8d7673918", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1 Company filings\n2 In October 2024, CareTrust (CTRE) announced a $500 million acquisition and lease of 31 skilled nursing facilities with 3,290 beds in 30 facilities located in Tennessee and 1 in Alabama that equated to approximately $13,678 per bed in annual rent, 64% higher than the 2024 disclosed NHI rent per bed for the NHC assets, a majority of which are also located in Tennessee.\n3 Based on full-year 2024 NHC EBITDA as estimated by Land & Buildings.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Could Lose Big as Lease Negotiation with National Health Investors Progresses", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:04.594+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0ee9c817-e6de-4148-9084-dd4b27a9093e", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 1, "arc": { "name": "The Sparkline", "slug": "sparkline", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Keynotes, TED-style talks", "canonId": "019dd956-606e-720c-905a-42607ac0bf50", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "What Is -> What Could Be -> What Is -> What Could Be -> New Bliss", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Setup", "beatId": "abd51319-74ac-472f-82f8-baaaf6fdf2ee", "matchId": "fc6cf33f-8207-49e0-8130-f62d63b94b15", "beatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. 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These views are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice. The information provided in this material should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. It should not be assumed that investments in such securities have been or will be profitable.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7ae84761-8fca-47ab-9155-e94936904fcc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "NHC needs to tread carefully as it engages with NHI. We believe NHC no longer has the upper hand given recent director retirements and weak shareholder support at this year’s NHI annual meeting, as evidenced by the razor thin victory for Robert Adams. NHI is under intense pressure to maximize the value of this lease, something the NHC board and management team may fail to realize. Playing chicken or not negotiating in good faith opens NHC up to substantial potential downside.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1868d56e-9fb6-4f95-a27d-efc8ce93fd85", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "3. Disastrous – NHI leases the properties to a third party. We estimate NHC may be earning as much as $50 million in annual EBITDA from the assets leased from NHI, or 38% of 2024 EBITDA. In this scenario NHC would lose all of this EBITDA, and it’s possible NHI could see even more upside to earnings if the assets were leased to a best-in-class operator who could run the assets more profitably and therefore pay higher rent.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1bfee553-16f2-4f9e-9a74-a319e9959ffa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "NHC risks overplaying its hand when negotiating with NHI, potentially threatening that a transition to another operator would be costly given some onerous provisions in the current lease. However, if NHC were to go scorched earth, they would likely jeopardize the care of the elderly residents in the NHI properties which may cause state regulators to reevaluate NHC’s Certificate of Need licenses or other aspects of how it operates. These actions could put at risk the properties NHC owns or operates outside of the NHI leases. Look no further than PACS Group’s (NYSE: PACS) more than 75% stock decline to see what happens when you take aggressive actions that invite increased regulatory scrutiny.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "63fff273-ff8d-43b1-9b0e-05abf7b2d343", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Media Contact: Longacre Square Partners, Dan Zacchei / Miller Winston, dzacchei@longacresquare.com / mwinston@longacresquare.com", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "869d4c12-9325-40ce-be72-bab613c2b0ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "NHC investors will undoubtedly be surprised by the ramifications of the NHI lease negotiation as NHC has no analyst coverage, no investor earnings calls, and minimal financial disclosures. Further, we believe NHC's shareholders do not appreciate the magnitude of the 19% to 38% downside risk to earnings as well as the potential reduction in valuation for the stock as the lease with NHI is renegotiated. For this reason, we have established a short position in NHC shares.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c7251a56-bc17-4c97-9b34-443cb87467a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "2. Worse – NHC plays hardball and does not reach an agreement with NHI by the end of 2026. Under the terms of the lease, the new monthly holdover rent for NHC would be 150% of current rent, and NHC would risk losing all the properties and associated EBITDA at any moment should NHI lease the portfolio to another operator.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:05:05.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c78ec324-e67b-41c3-8d49-aa8fb851839a", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 2, "arc": { "name": "The Sparkline", "slug": "sparkline", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Keynotes, TED-style talks", "canonId": "019dd956-606e-720c-905a-42607ac0bf50", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "What Is -> What Could Be -> What Is -> What Could Be -> New Bliss", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 1, "name": "Evidence", "beatId": "6a304543-b370-4eee-b7ed-3193682ef738", "matchId": "fc6cf33f-8207-49e0-8130-f62d63b94b15", "beatType": { "name": "Evidence", "slug": "evidence", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-03f9-772a-b84a-4f07b415b77a", "version": 1, "description": "A dedicated proof beat exists in only ~4 arcs (Gambit, Sequoia, AIDA, Monroes). 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