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Sally Smith CEO pricing-wall quote on slide 8 used to corroborate margin-compression thesis rather than as direct contradiction. Marcato does not disclose its stake percentage in this deck. Slide footer numbers lag PDF page indices by several pages due to unnumbered section dividers; notable_slide_pages are PDF-based where checked. Tone is analytical/constructive rather than adversarial — no named villain, blame framed impersonally as 'management decisions'. Clean institutional Marcato blue/grey palette with consistent typography and breathable layouts.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "49% in 2015 (down from 68% in 2006); target 90% by 2020", "metric": "Franchise mix" }, { "detail": "17.4% in 2015, down 1,460 bps from 32.0% in 2006", "metric": "ROIC (ex-lease capitalization)" }, { "detail": "-2% in Q1 2016; 10-year average 5.3%", "metric": "Same-store sales growth" }, { "detail": "8.5x current vs. 9.5x 5-year average", "metric": "EV/EBITDA multiple" }, { "detail": "$3,478k in 2015 vs. $2,300k replacement cost (~80% above 4-year average)", "metric": "Avg. franchisee acquisition cost per restaurant" }, { "detail": "6.5% vs. ~9.5% cost of capital", "metric": "Return on franchisee acquisitions" }, { "detail": "1% for BWLD vs. ~14% peer average; DPZ 59%, MCD 57%", "metric": "International units as % of system" }, { "detail": "9.6% on franchisee acquisitions, 13.0% on new company-owned stores, infinite on new franchised stores", "metric": "After-tax cash-on-cash return" }, { "detail": "$4.97 in 2015A → $19.96 in 2021E under 90% franchised plan vs. $9.80 status quo", "metric": "EPS trajectory" }, { "detail": "2.0x-3.0x Net Debt / EBITDA (currently 0.2x)", "metric": "Target leverage" } ], "closingAsk": "Implement a long-term plan to transition to a 90% franchised mix, halt dilutive franchisee and new-concept acquisitions, accelerate international franchising, recapitalize to 2-3x leverage, and tie executive compensation to return on capital.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 17:07:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 229.82202, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Mid-case implied share price of $402 versus $144 today at 13.0x EBITDA — a ~180% gain and 25.2% IRR over 4.6 years — with EPS roughly doubling to $19.96 by 2021E versus $9.80 under status quo.", "thesisTypes": [ "strategic_pivot", "capital_return", "operational_turnaround", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "BWLD's EV/EBITDA has compressed from 9.5x average to 8.5x as franchise mix fell from 68% to 49%", "2015 franchisee buy-ins cost ~80% above prior-year average and ~50% above replacement cost, earning 6.5% vs. 9.5% WACC", "Refranchising to 90% plus international growth can roughly double EPS to $19.96 by 2021E and ~180% share-price upside" ], "scqaSituation": "Buffalo Wild Wings is the dominant U.S. sports-bar chain with 1,175 restaurants, historically compounding 5%+ same-store-sales and mid-20s ROIC on a franchise-heavy system that peaked at 68% franchised in 2006.", "thesisSummary": "Marcato argues Buffalo Wild Wings' multiple has compressed because management keeps buying franchisees at ~80% above prior-year averages and ~50% above replacement cost, pushing ROIC from 32% in 2006 to 17.4% in 2015 while same-store sales turned negative in Q1 2016. The remedy is a sustained refranchising program targeting a 90% franchised mix by 2020 — replicating Jack in the Box (+109% franchise mix, +50% EV/EBITDA), Burger King under 3G (~100% franchised, 5x multiple expansion) and Domino's Pizza (96% franchised, 17x stock since IPO). Combined with accelerated international franchising (peers average 14% international units versus BWLD's 1%), recapitalization to 2-3x net debt/EBITDA, aggressive buybacks and compensation tied to ROIC and per-share value, Marcato projects EPS roughly doubles to $19.96 by 2021E and a mid-case share price of $402 versus $144 today.", "primaryDemands": [ "Transition to a 90% franchised store mix by year-end 2020", "Halt high-priced franchisee acquisitions and new-concept (R Taco, PizzaRev) investments", "Accelerate international franchise growth (peers average ~14% international mix vs BWLD's 1%)", "Recapitalize to 2.0x-3.0x Net Debt / EBITDA and return excess cash via buybacks", "Engage operational consultants to reinvigorate same-store-sales growth in the core brand", "Restructure executive compensation around ROIC and per-share value rather than aggregate growth" ], "scqaResolution": "Transition to 90% franchised by 2020, halt franchisee and new-concept acquisitions, accelerate 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"attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:02:45.373+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "87256e49-4a87-4a9c-a8f0-40230c186d83", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Avg. 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}, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:02:47.392+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "369bdd67-51bf-403a-875f-23ae27e5c640", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Based on management's disclosed target of 400 international franchise stores, we believe that BWLD could create substantial value by accelerating its global expansion. We believe this incremental value would materialize gradually over several years. Once BWLD's international presence achieves scale, we believe management could potentially begin to achieve higher margins and grow unit count even higher. This value would compound over time as excess capital is deployed to reduce outstanding shares.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:02:47.392+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a29effe8-9ced-408f-963e-696a753d0a39", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Value per BWLD share: $83.17", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:45:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6eb-753a-a38e-ff12858e4b80", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.88 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Company filings, MCM estimates. AUVs and ~5% effective royalty rate based on LTM metrics for BWLD as of Q1 2016. ~3% royalty case based on precedents from peers. Unit potential and royalty rate based on management guidance. EBITDA margin assumed for illustrative purposes. Analysis excludes impact of development fees, which primarily defer the upfront costs to BWLD of entering a new market, such as training and translation fees.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "JACK IN THE BOX INDEXED STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE | 2006 - 2016", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:02:44.39+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "08b13758-0000-4dc8-a165-19ae976e4e49", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Franchise Mix: 314%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": 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