{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-ec9fdcc5ff89", "slug": "c9a111b83a1b", "title": "AerCap Holdings (AER)", "subtitle": "David Einhorn · 2015-04", "author": "David Einhorn", "date": "2015-04-07 00:00:00", "pageCount": 89, "kind": "conference-presentation", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "AerCap Holdings", "targetTicker": "AER", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-ec9fdcc5ff89", "slug": "c9a111b83a1b", "title": "AerCap Holdings (AER)", "rawTitle": "Greenlight AerCap Presentation April 2015", "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital", "authorName": "David Einhorn", "authorDisplay": "David Einhorn", "kind": { "slug": "conference-presentation", "label": "Conference presentation" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2015-04-Greenlight-AerCap-Presentation-April-2015.pdf", "sourceUrl": "https://www.10xebitda.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Greenlight-AerCap-Presentation-April-2015.pdf", "sourceDate": "2015-04-07 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2015-04-07 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 16:15:53+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 89, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "AerCap Holdings", "targetTicker": "AER", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/c9a111b83a1b", "activist_firm": "Greenlight Capital", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 249.96731400489807 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 89, "pagesIndexed": 89, "pagesWithImages": 89, "pagesWithMetadata": 89, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 533, "chartCount": 25, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 43, "documentToolMatches": 6, "frameworkMatches": 31, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 5, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "921ab165-6369-4b71-b30c-5592f451431b", "evidence": "The presentation identifies market contradictions, analyzes their implications, and suggests ways to navigate these challenges.", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:54:45.6571+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Setup", "beatId": "2ed0e10e-055c-4314-bd77-42d4221c0306", "matchId": "921ab165-6369-4b71-b30c-5592f451431b", "beatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. Almost every arc opens here." }, "evidence": "Introduction to the conference and the presentation's theme.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 6, "name": "Complication", "beatId": "dc46dc23-223a-49ca-9fe2-378f508d82be", "matchId": "921ab165-6369-4b71-b30c-5592f451431b", "beatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "evidence": "Discussion of market contradictions and potential problems.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 21, "name": "Evidence", "beatId": "604928a1-af24-4554-bb7e-38ae6b78f155", "matchId": "921ab165-6369-4b71-b30c-5592f451431b", "beatType": { "name": "Evidence", "slug": "evidence", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-03f9-772a-b84a-4f07b415b77a", "version": 1, "description": "A dedicated proof beat exists in only ~4 arcs (Gambit, Sequoia, AIDA, Monroes). 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Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "evidence": "Conclusion and final thoughts on navigating the challenges.", "position": 4, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "02_pattern_hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "canonId": "019dd956-6695-771a-be2e-f1748ef041a4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Logical Reasoning", "categorySlug": "logical-reasoning" }, "matchId": "ab236c12-a921-4fbe-816c-1c0b05669549", "evidence": "The presentation highlights several market contradictions.", "position": 0, "objective": "Identify patterns in market contradictions.", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:54:45.892192+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 40, "from": 21, "loop": { "name": "05_the_reveal", "slug": "05-the-reveal", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Product launches, strategic pivots, unexpected findings", "canonId": "019dd956-67e8-77bc-a867-02c2b36370bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Setup the Question -> Build Suspense -> The Big Reveal", "description": "Build mystery and anticipation, then deliver a surprising or powerful conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Narrative", "categorySlug": "narrative" }, "matchId": "e490d73a-9d45-4327-b357-9f9c98f0ce8d", "evidence": "The presentation analyzes the leasing business model.", "position": 1, "objective": "Reveal the implications of these contradictions.", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:54:45.931276+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 60, "from": 41, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "dc577220-bfe6-4a21-b491-0cb2f28fd49e", "evidence": "The presentation evaluates specific companies.", "position": 2, "objective": "Highlight the cost of inaction in the face of these challenges.", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:54:45.972368+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "8d180e49-bd4b-4619-9cd2-a6730ff74af4", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". 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An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "1a8c9009-e202-4e1e-b80a-06aa4f0fe4f8", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience frame", "slug": "audience-frame", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "2a1eefbd-5be8-4600-898b-49dbfcf73ec8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Tools for modelling and segmenting the audience (persona, JTBD, segmentation).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "f97ae98d-900d-465c-b60b-107e26a9750b", "evidence": "Political cartoon showing a person representing Main Street and a person representing Wall Street at a street sign intersection.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:50:41.246449+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "optional", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Before-After-Bridge", "slug": "before-after-bridge", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-8604-7188-883f-42370288ad05", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Narrative structure: Paint the before, show the after, explain the bridge", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "a5058d65-53ab-4053-9d60-f490d7e10048", "evidence": "The recent fall in many commodities has surprised me. It has turned out that over several years, sharply rising commodity prices and low interest rates created a boom in investment, and excess supply in everything", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:50:41.315941+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 14, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? What do they know? What do they believe? What do they care about? What do they fear? 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null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "analytical", "notes": "Multi-topic Grant's Interest Rate Observer Conference talk. Three sections: (1) macro 'Zero Bound Odyssey' on Fed/Solvency II distortions and gold (slides 3-33); (2) AerCap long pitch 'Lessor is More' (slides 34-55); (3) athenahealth (ATHN) short follow-up to 2014 Sohn pitch with $14 bear-case DCF and 'bubble will pop' close (slides 56-89). Filename and primary new idea is AerCap; classification reflects that target. Signature Einhorn style: pop-culture imagery (Airplane!, Snakes on a Plane, Hulk, donuts, Snoopy), witty slide titles ('Cruising altitude', 'Avoiding turbulence', 'Insolvency II'), simple PowerPoint dark-blue gradient. No explicit price target on AER; thesis is rerating + compounding. No activist demands - this is a hedge fund pitch, not a campaign.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "8.5x 2015E EPS, 9.3x 2014A EPS at $44.76 share price", "metric": "P/E multiple (AER)" }, { "detail": "AER 13.1% vs FLY 8.2%, AYR 6.9%, ILFC 1.8%, AWAS (6.3%)", "metric": "GAAP ROE 2007-2013 avg" }, { "detail": "19.6% from 2006 ($8.83) to 2014 ($37.04)", "metric": "Book value / share CAGR" }, { "detail": "0.48x adjusted book value at announcement; 0.84x appraised fleet value", "metric": "ILFC purchase multiples" }, { "detail": "Average credit cost 0.2% of flight assets, ~99% portfolio utilization 2007-2013", "metric": "Credit cost / utilization" }, { "detail": "12% lease revenue / cost; 6.8% pre-tax ROA, 13.3% modeled ROE on 75% debt funding", "metric": "New-lease unit economics" }, { "detail": "Declined from 5.20% post-ILFC deal to 3.90% by April 2015", "metric": "AER 7-yr unsecured bond yield" }, { "detail": "~10% EPS CAGR 2015-2018 from ~5% fleet growth, OPEX/tax synergies, buybacks", "metric": "Projected EPS growth" }, { "detail": "12.5% Irish corporate rate post ILFC migration", "metric": "Tax rate" }, { "detail": "Adjusted base-case DCF $50/share vs Morgan Stanley $192; bear case $14", "metric": "ATHN valuation (short)" } ], "closingAsk": "Buy AerCap as the equity rerates to match the credit market; continue to expect the athenahealth bubble to pop toward Greenlight's $14 bear-case DCF.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 16:15:53+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 249.96732, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "A rerating of the P/E from 8.5x toward levels consistent with the low-teens ROE and double-digit EPS growth, compounded by aggressive share repurchases at low prices, implies meaningful upside (specific price target not stated).", "thesisTypes": [ "undervaluation", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "AerCap bought ILFC from AIG at 0.48x book and 84% of appraised fleet value", "Best-in-class lessor: 13.1% ROE, 99% utilization, only 0.2% credit losses through the crisis", "Credit markets rerated AER bonds 5.20% to 3.90%; equity still at 8.5x P/E will follow" ], "scqaSituation": "AerCap is the largest independent aircraft lessor after acquiring ILFC from AIG in 2014, doubling in size to ~1,320 planes; leasing now finances 40% of the global airline fleet versus less than 2% in 1980.", "thesisSummary": "In a market with few bargains, Greenlight argues AerCap Holdings (AER) is the cheapest blue-chip in aircraft leasing, having transformed itself by acquiring ILFC from AIG in 2014 at just 0.48x book and 84% of appraised fleet value. CEO Gus Kelly runs the business with discipline: 13.1% GAAP ROE between 2007 and 2013 (best of the listed lessors), a young narrowbody-heavy fleet, ~99% utilization and only 0.2% average credit losses through the financial crisis. The stock trades at 8.5x consensus 2015 EPS despite a projected ~10% EPS CAGR through 2018 from ILFC synergies, share repurchases and a 12.5% Irish tax rate. 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Most household liabilities are fixed-rate mortgages, where payments are unaffected by rate changes. Consumer credit is $3 trillion, some of which is also fixed. 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Because savers perceive interest income as more recurring than volatile stock market gains, and because interest income is spread more broadly than equity gains, it’s fair to assume that a much greater proportion of interest income would be spent.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:48.349+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ca3c05f7-9930-4e3e-a4ef-1473806ea553", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Since the financial crisis, U.S. savers alone have lost roughly USD 470 billion in interest rate income, net of lower debt costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:48.349+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "397f5173-20ef-4440-9cb3-ec20b35f9078", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Since the financial crisis, U.S. savers alone have lost roughly USD 470 billion in interest rate income, net of lower debt costs.\" — Swiss Re, \"Financial repression: The unintended consequences\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:38:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b66-7100-895e-9c7ef521a6d3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.56, "x": 0.22, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "– Swiss Re, “Financial repression: The unintended consequences”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The first column is the stand-alone market risk charge for certain assets. The second column considers other factors including diversification and duration matching. Government debt actually has a negative capital charge. It appears that Solvency II did not anticipate negative bond yields, as holding debt with locked in negative yields can't possibly be safer than selling and holding cash. Under the new rules, selling the bonds to hold cash would create a capital charge. 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Imagine an insurer who has a simple portfolio with 40 billion euros of sovereign debt and 5 billion euros each of real estate and equities. 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They should decline further once the company regains the investment grade credit rating it lost due to the ILFC transaction. Though the stock has advanced, the P/E multiple has barely changed despite strong post-deal execution and improving earnings. 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In the ILFC deal, senior management was awarded a large batch of restricted stock units that vest in 2018 and 2019, two-thirds of which depend on performance. All told, in an expensive market, this appears to be a cheap stock.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:57.246+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1514eff6-73ba-4b96-a390-e839b195a00c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AerCap’s management team doesn’t just talk about managing the business for shareholders. In addition to running the business well, AerCap has been an aggressive buyer of its own stock at low prices. 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It invested in CapEx, which went from 6% of sales to 10%. It also grew total R&D substantially. But, it capitalized the increasing part, with capitalized software going from 4.9% to 7.2%. Margins fell, only it wasn't due to higher investment for growth, as the growth investing was mostly capitalized rather than expensed. 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In 2014, R&D expenses were expected to grow and pressure operating margins, but this didn't happen. R&D expenses on the income statement actually declined as a percentage of sales last year.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:56.593+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dd42ecc8-df40-4b40-b361-9f82048297d7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: athenahealth’s filings on Form 10-K and 10-Q; and Greenlight calculations derived from athenahealth’s filings.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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While there is no disclosure of the impact, in our experience this is the sort of thing companies do when they are straining to meet expectations. Notably, that quarter, athena exceeded consensus revenue estimates by 0.25%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:55.712+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "009a6dfd-eace-4de9-9cc9-db62845f129c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "During 2014, we began to sell go-live and training support services separate from the required implementation services. Fees associated with required implementation services are included in our ongoing monthly rate; therefore, they are being recognized ratably over the customer life. Go-live and training support services can be purchased by the customer from us or third-party vendors, and therefore, are recognized upon delivery of service. Previously deferred revenue balances related to implementation services, including go-live and training support services, will continue to be amortized over those remaining customer lives.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:55.712+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "152e8604-17f6-4a72-a2fb-98fddfb0c9a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“During 2014, we began to sell go-live and training support services separate from the required implementation services. Fees associated with required implementation services are included in our ongoing monthly rate; therefore, they are being recognized ratably over the customer life. Go-live and training support services can be purchased by the customer from us or third-party vendors, and therefore, are recognized upon delivery of service. Previously deferred revenue balances related to implementation services, including go-live and training support services, will continue to be amortized over those remaining customer lives.” — ATHN 3Q 2014 10Q, page 13", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:38:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b66-7100-8964-e263f7097575", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.34, "x": 0.53, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "– ATHN 3Q 2014 10Q, page 13", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Investors have been led to believe that 2014 was a small hiccup and that athena’s bookings are tracking to the green line. 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Even though RazorInsights has 25 customers, athena left its revenue guidance substantially unchanged.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "027f686a-cbfe-4adb-9b4f-50213a6ee1a8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "webOMR is Beth Israel’s EHR platform that athena will integrate into its own in-patient offering.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a6de0403-1b46-4515-bcba-440234a8ab19", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Less than eight months later athena spent $80 million to do two acquisitions to accelerate the building of a competitive system.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d065f0f8-6bba-400d-bab1-e940652a8e54", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Greenlight calculations for new athena collector enterprise customers based on athenahealth press releases at http://newsroom.athenahealth.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253091&p=irol-overview.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "evidence": "Conclusion and final thoughts on navigating the challenges.", "position": 4, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 85, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a video link as evidence to support a critical thesis about corporate financial reporting.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 56, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 506, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a video link as evidence to support a critical thesis about corporate financial reporting.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "screenshot", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.035+00", "seconds": 2.295, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-ec9fdcc5ff89/85", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-ec9fdcc5ff89", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-ec9fdcc5ff89#slide-85", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-ec9fdcc5ff89.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We suspect that athena is doing just that – using these acquisitions to implicitly lower guidance without actually lowering guidance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:38:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b66-7100-8965-db9e96497bbf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Video still of Jonathan Bush on a panel", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Photo", "slug": "photo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd37-757f-b4a8-ca26d4888875", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "photo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.035+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4a1c9757-cf94-43de-87dd-088cf37299a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Here’s Jonathan Bush describing the value of acquisitions. We suspect that athena is doing just that – using these acquisitions to implicitly lower guidance without actually lowering guidance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.035+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "568424e6-625f-42a4-a904-8206f653947a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: http://video.mit.edu/watch/are-you-ready-for-ipo-strategies-and-steps-for-how-and-when-to-take-your-company-public-9327/", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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