{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab", "slug": "d705389771f5", "title": "athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN)", "subtitle": "David Einhorn · 2014-05", "author": "David Einhorn", "date": "2014-05-05 00:00:00", "pageCount": 66, "kind": "conference-presentation", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "athenahealth, Inc.", "targetTicker": "ATHN", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab", "slug": "d705389771f5", "title": "athenahealth, Inc. 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Classic rhetorical scaffolding: wordplay chapter titles (Schtimulation, Bush v. Gore, Capitation, Capital misallocation), heavy use of CEO video clips and quote-contradiction, and a WebMD-reveal closing analogue. Explicitly not a fraud thesis — Einhorn calls Bush 'well-meaning and honest'. Structure is effectively a reverse-DCF attack on a specific Morgan Stanley sell-side report (April 23, 2014). Stake percentage not disclosed. Visual design is basic dark-gradient PowerPoint with heavy use of stock imagery and screenshots; narrative craft is top-tier. Stock was at $127 at time of presentation; shares fell ~14% the day of the speech.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Tripled from $60 to $204 in 16 months through early March 2014", "metric": "Stock price move" }, { "detail": "$16K today; Morgan Stanley assumes $63K by 2030; Greenlight argues $36.6K is more realistic", "metric": "Revenue per doctor" }, { "detail": "~10% today, 13% by 2020, 30% by 2030 — Greenlight says 30% is implausible, caps at 15%", "metric": "EBIT margin (Morgan Stanley forecast)" }, { "detail": "athena 6.6x vs. 9.8x cloud-peer average; est. growth 24% vs. 39% peer average", "metric": "EV/2014 revenues (peer comp)" }, { "detail": "37,000 today growing to 86,000 by 2030 per Morgan Stanley; Greenlight bear caps at 74,000", "metric": "Doctor count assumption" }, { "detail": "<3% today; MS assumes athena captures 6% of hospital market — 200% of current outsourced market", "metric": "Hospital RCM outsourcing penetration" }, { "detail": "~80% of office-based physicians already on EHR by 2013; incentive payments drop to $0 in 2015", "metric": "EHR saturation" }, { "detail": "10/10 top cancer, 9/10 cardiology, 8/10 orthopedics hospitals on Epic; ~275K doctors; ~0% attrition", "metric": "Epic dominance" }, { "detail": "$50 base / $14 bear vs. $127 spot and $192 Morgan Stanley base case", "metric": "Adjusted DCF value" }, { "detail": "Stock 'could easily fall 80% or more from its recent peak'", "metric": "Peak-to-trough expectation" } ], "closingAsk": "Recognize the bubble is deflating — ATHN is a falling knife with much further to fall, and the gap to a disciplined growth-investor price is very large.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 16:15:07+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 206.93253, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Adjusted DCF collapses to $50 per share versus $127 at presentation — a ~60% drawdown to the base case, and a $14 bear case that is roughly a market multiple on current non-GAAP earnings, implying ~80%+ further downside.", "thesisTypes": [ "multiple_rerating", "other" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Morgan Stanley's $192 DCF requires 30% EBIT margins and $63K revenue per doctor by 2030 — both implausible", "Epic's near-100% retention and 275K doctors makes hospital expansion a dead-end for athena", "Adjusted DCF is $50/share vs. $127 spot; bear case is just $14 on 13% margins" ], "scqaSituation": "athenahealth is a cloud software-and-services vendor to U.S. ambulatory physicians, charging 4-7% of collections for EHR, practice management, and patient communication; shares tripled to $204 in 16 months through early 2014.", "thesisSummary": "David Einhorn's Sohn 2014 presentation introduces Greenlight's 'bubble basket' short thesis using athenahealth as the illustrative specimen. The argument is explicitly not fraud — CEO Jonathan Bush is 'well-meaning and honest, though occasionally promotional' — but that shares tripled to $204 in sixteen months while revenue and EPS estimates were cut. Einhorn dissects Morgan Stanley's $192 DCF, showing it requires revenue per doctor to rise from $16K to $63K by 2030, EBIT margins to expand from 10% to 30%, and athena to win 6% of a hospital market Epic already dominates. Adjusting each assumption to something defensible yields a $50 base-case value and a $14 bear case versus a $127 share price. Structural headwinds — hospital consolidation, EHR saturation, capitation, and CEO capital misallocation — make ATHN a falling knife with much further to fall.", "primaryDemands": [ "Short athenahealth shares as the illustrative 'bubble basket' example", "Reject Morgan Stanley's $192 DCF built on implausible revenue-per-doctor and 30% EBIT margin assumptions", "Recognize Epic Systems — not athenahealth — is winning healthcare IT" ], "scqaResolution": "Strip the implausible inputs from Morgan Stanley's $192 DCF: normalize revenue per doctor to $36.6K, cap ambulatory and inpatient EBIT margins at 15%, apply a venture-grade 20% WACC to the unproven inpatient business.", "thesisOneLiner": "athenahealth is the poster child of the cloud 'bubble basket' — strip Morgan Stanley's fantasy margin and revenue-per-doctor assumptions and the stock falls 80%+ toward a $50 adjusted DCF.", "precedentsCited": [ "WebMD (2004 'transform healthcare' pitch that failed)", "Other unnamed cloud 'bubble basket' stocks (Workday, ServiceNow, Veeva, Demandware, Salesforce, Netsuite)" ], "scqaComplication": "Revenue and EPS estimates were cut throughout the run-up; the stock price only clears conventional DCFs when sell-side analysts plug in implausible long-run inputs — 4x revenue per doctor, tripled EBIT margins, and a speculative hospital launch against Epic.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 3, 20, 25, 51, 60, 66 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Salesforce.com", "Concur Technologies", "Ultimate Software", "Netsuite", "Veeva", "Workday", "ServiceNow", "Demandware", "Epic Systems", "Cerner", "eClinicalWorks", "Kareo", "CareCloud", "WebMD" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "dcf", "sum_of_parts", "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 2 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "Includes Greenlight Capital logo and speaker/date details.", "function": "front_matter", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/M4IQ8zfTx9wfInrRtAC01KiF6AA9LBG-O4uA-VBN60s/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9kNzA1Mzg5NzcxZjUvcDAwMS5qcGc", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 51, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 384, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Includes Greenlight Capital logo and speaker/date details.", "elementsJson": [ "logo_grid", "headline_text", "subtitle_text", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.571+00", "seconds": 2.262, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.36, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Greenlight Capital logo", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Logo", "slug": "logo", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fdaf-743d-94c4-d7c6a0e55302", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "logo", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.571+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "06b3ed7f-e078-4bd2-942b-629b126dcaad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This is the 19th Annual Sohn Investment Conference. The first time I spoke here was in 2002. It is amazing how this great event has grown, and I am honored to be here.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.571+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8cd255b1-cd53-460f-b265-4ffc93a8041d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The first time I spoke here was in 2002. It is amazing how this great event has grown, and I am honored to be here. — David Einhorn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:41:05+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f40-73bb-a604-c4333e6e5d45", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "title", "text": "19th Annual Sohn Investment Conference", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.571+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c038fecc-4e40-4615-b34e-98f1481742e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.3, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "title", "text": "David Einhorn\nMay 5, 2014", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb09-739d-900c-815b0d9ac526", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "subtitle", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:58.571+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "46ce7cd7-19cf-49aa-aaba-3e284058b882", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "thumbSrc": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/OrIosICx-1TRTUYBtvCAYN1HnBkDk6O6GJpEsnAH4yU/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9kNzA1Mzg5NzcxZjUvcDAwMS5qcGc", "imagePathAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/XVCwGox_fxSL7HhyaOYnT4iHv6dpIyWx1fHpXmKG680/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9kNzA1Mzg5NzcxZjUvcDAwMS5wbmc", "thumbSrcAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/-CUiLsKbh-uoKGEGeqcAh6APY5uT65JVNIqGwBH58Ec/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9kNzA1Mzg5NzcxZjUvcDAwMS5wbmc" }, { "page": 2, "type": "setup", "function": "other", "rawType": "disclaimer", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "disclaimer", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0801-727b-b98a-5ed095aeee78", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "other", "functionCanon": { "name": "Other (fallback)", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-15e1-75bc-99dc-07732380e2ce", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 41, "componentCount": 2, "textChars": 1980, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": null, "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:59.528+00", "seconds": 2.996, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab/2", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab#slide-2", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.74, "x": 0.13, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "THESE MATERIALS SHALL NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY INTERESTS IN ANY FUND MANAGED BY GREENLIGHT OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES. SUCH AN OFFER TO SELL OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY INTERESTS MAY ONLY BE MADE PURSUANT TO DEFINITIVE SUBSCRIPTION DOCUMENTS BETWEEN A FUND AND AN INVESTOR. The information contained herein reflects the opinions and projections of Greenlight Capital, Inc. and its affiliates (collectively “Greenlight”) as of the date of publication, which is subject to change without notice at any time subsequent to the date of issue, and serves as a limited supplement to a verbal presentation. Greenlight does not represent that any opinion or projection will be realized. While the information presented herein is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data presented. All information provided in this presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. Greenlight has an economic interest in the price movement of the securities discussed in this presentation, but Greenlight’s economic interest is subject to change without notice. GREENLIGHT® and GREENLIGHT CAPITAL, INC. with the star logo are registered trademarks of Greenlight Capital, Inc. or affiliated companies in the United States, European Union and other countries worldwide. All other trade names, trademarks, service marks, and logos herein are the property of their respective owners who retain all proprietary rights over their use. This presentation may not be reproduced without prior written permission from Greenlight. The information contained within the body of this presentation is supplemented by footnotes which identify Greenlight’s sources, assumptions, estimates, and calculations. This information contained herein should be reviewed in conjunction with the footnotes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:59.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6af60a2a-bcf0-444f-bd08-1a177a0dc588", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.22, "x": 0.39, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Disclaimer", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:08:59.528+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b43e3f9c-42a3-4b54-8a6d-47c6430ba607", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 3, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide serves as a transition to a deep dive on athenahealth, framing the author's short position as a valuation-based critique rather than a personal attack", "function": "transition", "rawType": "section_divider", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "section_divider", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Section divider", "slug": "section_divider", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-066a-7402-9554-6ae504999041", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "transition", "functionCanon": { "name": "Transition", "slug": "transition", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1365-7149-92aa-66df859e75fd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 83, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1258, "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "The slide serves as a transition to a deep dive on athenahealth, framing the author's short position as a valuation-based critique rather than a personal attack.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:00.616+00", "seconds": 4.075, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab/3", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab#slide-3", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The stock is simply at the wrong price. It’s caught up in a bubble and could easily fall 80% or more from its recent peak.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:41:04+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f40-73bb-a604-7015eccaf180", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.728, "x": 0.136, "y": 0.815 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Let me introduce you to athenahealth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:00.616+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2fc479ab-d610-431d-8814-e7b3f06d9444", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.728, "x": 0.136, "y": 0.595 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Since we can't seem to please anybody, I've decided to validate both criticisms. Today, I'm going to illustrate the bubble basket doing a deep dive into one of the companies, while not disclosing the others.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:00.616+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41b60abc-e4c5-4a98-9a00-537272dacba8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.728, "x": 0.136, "y": 0.735 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Its main problem is that it isn't positioned to succeed the way the bulls hope, as the assumptions the bulls are making are not plausible. 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Today athena serves 37,000 doctors and earns $16,000 per doctor. 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waterfall chart to bridge from a base case valuation to an adjusted valuation based on specific revenue and margin assumptions.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "waterfall_chart", "paragraph", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:06.697+00", "seconds": 6.125, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab/36", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab#slide-36", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-eab730ee09ab.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our adjusted DCF value for the established ambulatory business is therefore $43 per share.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:41:08+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f40-73bb-a608-5ba3863337b1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Waterfall chart showing MS Ambulatory Base Case ($120) adjusted by Revs/Doc ($44) and 15% Peak Margin ($33) to reach Adjusted DCF ($43).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Waterfall bridge / value bridge", "slug": "waterfall-bridge", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0055-7469-ba67-a7f7a327dec1", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "waterfall-bridge", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:06.697+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5ba2d3ef-ef5a-4f55-9d4f-b423356b2eb9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "DCF value per share: $43", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", 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You have to build the claims. You need the patient record, well, we have those two things. Now they have a nurse rounding station. They have lab interfaces. They have bed management modules, there's 30 other modules out there. 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Now they have a nurse rounding station. They have lab interfaces. They have bed management modules, there's 30 other modules out there. 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[video clip] Like many other people, Jonathan Bush wants to fix healthcare. The fix he has in mind is \"a healthy, sustainable market for health information exchange\" but, as he notes, regulations and cultural resistance have kept this from happening. Nonetheless, athena has continued down this path in the hopes that the regulations will change. In 2011, athena lobbied for and received a small exemption from the anti-kickback laws, granted by the Office of the Inspector General. The company believed that this would be the crack in the dam that would eventually lead to an open market. Instead, the OIG reversed its decision last month, signaling that any change in these laws is not likely without an act of Congress. We believe that if the laws around this do change, a small player like athena is unlikely to be in a central position where it can extract monopoly profits. 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In recent weeks the shares have fallen sharply. Perhaps the bubble is deflating. The thing about bubble stocks is that the best reason to own them is that they are going up. When they stop going up, there is no reason to own them. The gap between the top of the bubble price and the price where a disciplined growth investor will become interested is very large. When they stop going up, these stocks become falling knives. I think this one has much further to fall. 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