{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-d663f7d16bb8", "slug": "6b632aa627e3", "title": "Lehman Brothers (LEH)", "subtitle": "David Einhorn · 2008-05", "author": "David Einhorn", "date": "2008-05-21 00:00:00", "pageCount": 9, "kind": "conference-presentation", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.7428985, "targetCompany": "Lehman Brothers", "targetTicker": "LEH", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-d663f7d16bb8", "slug": "6b632aa627e3", "title": "Lehman Brothers (LEH)", "rawTitle": "Greenlight Sohn Conference Speech Transcript May 2008", "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital", "authorName": "David Einhorn", "authorDisplay": "David Einhorn", "kind": { "slug": "conference-presentation", "label": "Conference presentation" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2008-05-Greenlight-Sohn-Conference-Speech-Transcript-May-2008.pdf", "sourceUrl": "https://www.10xebitda.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Greenlight-Sohn-Conference-Speech-Transcript-May-2008.pdf", "sourceDate": "2008-05-21 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2008-05-21 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 16:08:37+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 9, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.7428985, "targetCompany": "Lehman Brothers", "targetTicker": "LEH", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/6b632aa627e3", "activist_firm": "Greenlight Capital", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 88.46753263473511 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 9, "pagesIndexed": 9, "pagesWithImages": 9, "pagesWithMetadata": 9, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 73, "chartCount": 0, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 3, "documentToolMatches": 3, "frameworkMatches": 7, "arcMatches": 0, "beatMatches": 0, "loopMatches": 0, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [], "beats": [], "loops": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "3f4e6708-53b5-4c55-b2a5-735f2833e120", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "1f08131d-fd88-4ee7-94ea-0a43b6cebc19", "evidence": "Erin Callan (Lehman CFO); also Bill Walton (Allied Capital CEO) by analogy", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. 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Document is a 9-page speech transcript (not a slide deck) with three embedded screenshots of Lehman tables (Table 1 - 1Q08 press release, Table 2 - 10-Q, Table 3 - Level 3 asset movements). FOIA-released Lehman Holdings document (LBHI_SEC07940_336846-854). Tables are low-resolution scans, hence visual_quality=2. Speech opens with extended Allied Capital meta-commentary on regulator failure before pivoting to Lehman thesis around p.4. Quotes Allied CEO Bill Walton's hypocritical accounting-integrity statement and Lehman CFO Erin Callan's call language ('great' 14x, 'strong' 24x). Campaign outcome: spectacular vindication — Lehman filed Chapter 11 on Sept 15, 2008.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$489 million profit despite widening spreads and falling equities", "metric": "Reported Q1 2008 net income" }, { "detail": "$6.5 billion total with ~25% ($1.6B) rated BB+ or lower; only $200M gross write-down", "metric": "Undisclosed CDO exposure" }, { "detail": "$228M gain in 10-Q vs. $875M loss reported on conference call — $1.1B swing", "metric": "Level 3 assets discrepancy" }, { "detail": "$722M gain on $8.4B portfolio while S&P fell 10%", "metric": "Level 3 corporate equities gain" }, { "detail": "$400-600M booked on $86.5M January investment with no genuine subsequent round", "metric": "KSK Energy Ventures unrealized gain" }, { "detail": "3% ($750M) vs. 7% on non-Level 3 mortgages", "metric": "Level 3 mortgage write-down" }, { "detail": "$39B with <3 points gross write-down vs. AAA CMBX index down ~10%", "metric": "Commercial mortgage exposure" } ], "closingAsk": "Regulators should guide Lehman toward recapitalization and recognition of its losses before federal taxpayer assistance is required.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 16:08:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 88.46753, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Honest accounting and recapitalization would restore market confidence and avoid the systemic and federal cost of a disorderly Lehman failure; Greenlight is short and expects significant downside.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Lehman took only $200M write-down on $6.5B undisclosed CDO exposure with $1.6B sub-investment-grade", "Level 3 asset numbers swung $1.1B between conference call and 10-Q with no plausible explanation", "Lehman marked Level 3 mortgages down only 3% vs. 7% for non-Level 3, defying market reality" ], "scqaSituation": "Lehman Brothers, a highly levered investment bank, reported Q1 2008 results two days after the Bear Stearns rescue — a quarter when bond spreads widened and equity markets fell sharply.", "thesisSummary": "David Einhorn argues that Lehman Brothers' Q1 2008 results — a reported $489 million profit — rest on accounting ingenuity rather than economic reality. Lehman quietly disclosed $6.5 billion of previously hidden CDO exposure (with $1.6 billion below investment grade) yet took only a $200 million write-down. Level 3 asset gain/loss figures shifted by $1.1 billion between CFO Erin Callan's conference call and the 10-Q with no 8-K filing or coherent explanation, and a $400-600M unrealized gain on KSK Energy Ventures was justified by a 'subsequent round' that never happened. Lehman marked Level 3 mortgages down just 3% versus 7% for non-Level 3 assets and avoided material charges on commercial mortgages and SunCal despite collapsing comparable indices. Einhorn calls for de-leveraging, capital raise, and SEC intervention before taxpayers are forced in.", "primaryDemands": [ "Lehman should recognize losses and de-lever its balance sheet", "Lehman should raise capital and recapitalize before federal taxpayer assistance is required", "SEC, Fed, and Treasury should pay heed to Lehman's risks to the financial system" ], "scqaResolution": "Regulators (Cox, Bernanke, Paulson) should push Lehman to recognize its real losses, de-lever, and raise capital before a taxpayer bailout becomes necessary.", "thesisOneLiner": "Lehman is using fair-value accounting tricks to hide CDO losses and inflate Level 3 marks; the firm is over-levered, opaque, and needs to recapitalize before the Fed has to step in.", "precedentsCited": [ "Allied Capital (Greenlight's prior fair-value accounting short)", "Bear Stearns collapse and JP Morgan-acknowledged losses on Bear's books" ], "scqaComplication": "Lehman posted a $489M profit by under-marking $6.5B of newly-disclosed CDOs, swinging Level 3 figures by $1.1B between the call and the 10-Q, and booking implausible gains on illiquid assets like KSK Energy.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 5, 7 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Bear Stearns", "JP Morgan", "Allied Capital" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "asset_value", "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 1 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "This is a text-heavy cover/introductory page for a presentation.", "function": "front_matter", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/irvzZfum8jWUklW3i56jKy9LPpLj2KVQJ2Ixj-dE4k0/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy82YjYzMmFhNjI3ZTMvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 87, "componentCount": 10, "textChars": 3319, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This is a text-heavy cover/introductory page for a presentation.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "seconds": 4.887, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-d663f7d16bb8/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-d663f7d16bb8", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-d663f7d16bb8#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-d663f7d16bb8.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The lack of confidence in the SEC's oversight ultimately undermines investor confidence.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:11:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0936-7173-ab15-c106f77278a1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In Fooling Some of the People All of the Time, I point out that the SEC is not enforcing the existing anti-fraud rules against corporate managements. I wonder if part of the reason Bear Stearns lost the market’s confidence was a sense that Bear had undisclosed losses and that the SEC was not taking proper measures to ensure that Bear reported accurate financials. The large losses that JP Morgan has now acknowledged on Bear’s books support this theory. The lack of confidence in the SEC’s oversight ultimately undermines investor confidence.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00fdfba4-80a8-437e-8b6a-bf248e617a3d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I appeared at this conference six years ago and joked that my wife, while trying to help me prepare my presentation of the Allied Capital analysis, had a hard time staying awake. This is pretty ironic, since the ensuing fallout from that speech has cost us a substantial amount of sleep. Over the past six years I have learned a lot and grown a little, and formed some strong views about Wall Street regulation and the muzzle it often places on free speech.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e8c2fad-bd6c-47a7-b0d4-7449e1a9f950", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Since the Allied speech, I have developed a thicker skin. Back then, when Allied COO Joan Sweeney said that my “plan was to scare the little old ladies,” it actually bothered me. When Holman Jenkins at The Wall Street Journal equated my presentation to a “mugging” – a violent crime – I was incensed because it wasn’t fair. Now, when I read book reviewers of Fooling Some of the People All of the Time calling me naïve because of how I used to believe the system worked, I’m just happy if they like the book.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3ee64a13-808d-484a-b800-06f793857459", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Allied experience gives me less confidence today than I had six years ago that the regulators are even trying to enforce rules to protect investors from dishonest public disclosures and outright lies by unscrupulous corporate managements. Maybe they are understaffed or too busy with other priorities. Maybe they are not as sophisticated or close enough to the issues. However, my experience leads me to fear that maybe they just don’t care.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8f6013aa-d661-442e-b651-bf844106a1b5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I can fully understand why other investors might decline to appear in this forum or to share a critical analysis. Who could blame them? The cost is high (think lawyers here), it extracts an enormous personal toll, and there are better ways to raise money for a good charity. I have decided to persist because I believe it is important and the right thing to do.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bd78b89e-a55d-4e36-8c22-033fb85554f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I think that research conferences like these are important. Of course, this one is particularly worthy because it supports a great cause: The Tomorrows Children’s Fund. Further, it is important for investors to discuss market information and analysis to help sort the good companies from the bad. But, there is a structural impediment in our financial markets that creates a massive disincentive to share research about companies doing bad things.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2048674-05b6-4ec9-8d39-bea3581b86b7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Back then, when Allied COO Joan Sweeney said that my “plan was to scare the little old ladies,” it actually bothered me. When Holman Jenkins at The Wall Street Journal equated my presentation to a “mugging” – a violent crime – I was incensed because it wasn’t fair.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:11:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0936-7173-ab15-c4f7ccc773a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "FOIA CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED BY LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC. LBHI_SEC07940_336846", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:47.601+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f30a0b5b-5165-431b-bc41-9ae64d324729", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Ira W. 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How long would it be before someone was arrested?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:51.737+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8758e6e8-1273-4d1d-822a-da0dbb5fc4e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.77 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Of course, I don't know of a hedge fund that has done these things. Everybody now knows that Allied Capital has. 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How likely is it that our most prestigious investment banks would line-up to introduce that hedge fund to new capital?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:51.737+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "acce9a7f-fe5f-44d0-ae9f-50ea83d0b8d4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "When I speak of investors I am including hedge fund managers... In truth, hedge fund managers at their core are simply investors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:51.737+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "beab56ec-ef3e-4753-b7f9-a9a059565093", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"lightly regulated, private investment funds that use unconventional investment strategies and tax shelters in an attempt to make extraordinary returns in any market...these factors have given them a secretive and shady aura in the financial community.\" — Investopedia; \"The Sleaziest Show on Earth.\" — Forbes; \"the largest fraud in SBA history.\" — SBA inspector general", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbf4-cbf3d77f9a39", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.16, "x": 0.7, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "LBHI_SEC07940_336847", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The issue is that some entities have made investments that they believed would generate smooth returns.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:46.264+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ca8b1ee0-eb8d-49f3-bfb0-792ee2cbad24", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One of the key issues I raised about Allied six years ago was its improper use of fair value accounting, as it had been unwilling to take write-downs on investments that failed in the last recession.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:46.264+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f78029eb-2480-44c5-acaa-1c5d4786db87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Open and consistent accounting starts with an attitude of zero tolerance for improprieties. People need to see that people are rewarded for candor in reporting and punished for slipshod practices. The CEO really has to set the moral tone.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:46.264+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9db51440-c967-4274-8d59-7d3449eb2b3e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "FOIA CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED BY LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Presently, Greenlight is short Lehman. 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Do they follow the rules, take the write-downs and suffer the consequences whatever they may be? Or worse, do they take the view that they can't really value the investments in order to avoid writing them down? 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On the conference call that day, Lehman CFO Erin Callan used the word \"great\" 14 times, \"challenging\" 6 times; \"strong\" 24 times, and \"tough\" once. 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In terms of what happened in Level 3 asset changes this quarter, we had net sort of payments, purchases, or sales of 1.8 billion. We had net transfers in of 1.1 billion. So stuff that was really moved in or recharacterized from Level 2. And then there was about 875 million of write-downs. 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The company in question was KSK Energy Ventures Limited...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:45.849+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "893c5de9-26d7-4423-8a80-55d2aecd8ab1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“This seems like one helluva power plug!” — One of my partners", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:11:06+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-0936-7173-ab16-1dfe288ccbed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "FOIA CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED BY LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC. 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This raises the question, though, of what incentive do corporate managers have to fully acknowledge bad news in a truthful fashion?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "33a9cf44-f1fb-48a7-aa6e-8dbd31f753e0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For the last several weeks, Lehman has been complaining about short-sellers. Academic research and our experience indicate that when management teams do that, it is a sign that management is attempting to distract investors from serious problems.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4a036528-40f7-45f4-8814-a822d29d797c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Recently, Lehman analysts have been cutting second quarter estimates due to \"hedge ineffectiveness.\" According to Lehman, hedges that mitigated the gross losses previously are now reversing faster than the assets Lehman owns. It seems to me that the hedge ineffectiveness might reflect Lehman more aggressively recognizing the gains on its hedges than the losses on its assets in prior periods.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f7dfac7-f930-4e13-8ec3-b2cf9294888c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "further. Since Lehman's portfolio is less than AAA, it would seem its write-down probably should have been more than 10 points. Lehman wrote its exposure down less than 3 points gross.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7d48ed42-f442-4257-996a-454cf10b9ca0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.14, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.69 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For the capital markets to function, companies need to provide investors with accurate information rather than whatever numbers add up to a smooth return. If there is no penalty for misbehavior - and, in fact, such behavior is rewarded with flattering stories in the mainstream press about how to handle a crisis – we will all bear the negative consequences over time. At a minimum, what message does this send to some of Lehman's competitors that probably didn't have problems quite as acute as Lehman, but who took sizable write-downs, and diluted their shareholders with significant equity raises?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ae5992fb-4940-4392-b0d2-cfa27bc470a4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "My hope is that Mr. Cox and Mr. Paulson will pay heed to the risks to the financial system that Lehman is creating and that they will guide Lehman toward a recapitalization and recognition of its losses – hopefully before federal taxpayer assistance is required.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aedc8ba9-9cd3-46a4-899b-8ff74529a943", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Part of the commercial mortgage exposure is a venture called SunCal, where Lehman is a lender and equity investor. SunCal is a large land developer, principally in California's Inland Empire. This is one of the hardest hit housing markets in the country. A number of publicly-traded home builders have written land holdings in this area down to pennies on the dollar. Lehman has not disclosed a material charge on its SunCal investment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c34b050b-340b-4035-805d-8bd9d5403691", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Now, given my experience with Allied and the SEC, I have no expectation that Lehman will be sanctioned in any material way for what we believe it has done. I suspect that some of the authorities applaud Lehman's accounting ingenuity.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c81fcded-551e-4c03-8019-878cbaad459d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.39 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At the Grant's Conference, before Lehman filed its 10-Q, I argued that if you assumed Lehman's balance sheet was accurate, it needed to de-lever and raise capital. Now, I believe the need is much greater.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:09:48.005+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e10c006d-6ffc-476d-97a7-a0b43549d41d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "FOIA CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUESTED BY LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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